The Despondancy Stage

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

If you re-visit threads from the first half of 2014, you'll see the old bullish regulars declaring with full conviction that the bottom *must* be in now. Plenty of posts with the usual log-linear extrapolations to 1000s of $ per coin were posted again.

....

My point is, in a deep bear market like this, what do you expect the long-term Bitcoin believers to post? Predictions about impending reversals? Done that, and failed. Pat each other on the back for not being affected yet because their entry price was in the single digits? That happens occasionally, and it provokes a justified backlash.

Again, I don't think most of those so-called "bulls" were genuine at all, only a small percentage were real bull long investors that truly care about bitcoin's future.  Most of those older bull accounts just belong to disingenuous day traders flipping the script during a rally to "To da moon!", how bitcoin will change the world, bogus charts, rockets/trains, sky high predictions, and other such nonsense because it serves their purpose at the moment.  

And declarations of "The bottom MUST be in!" is just bull trap fodder spread by day traders trying to unload more coins.

Once the rally is over, they eventually log out of those bull accounts, and back into their bear troll accounts and go to town.  Starting the bullshit cycle all over again.  

If you are a newbie that comes here in the middle of a rally, then the joke is on you.  You already missed the train for a long while.

The good news for true longs is, now during the "Despondancy Stage" is probably a very good time to buy.

You are describing a phenomenon (the "trolls" that switch the music from bull to bear) that is simply a natural consequence of another phenomenon.
What phenomenon you ask?

The way this market works. The way uptrends and downtrends in the bitcoin market work.

Just go look at the all time chart. Does it look like a natural or healthy market? There are hardly any healthy sustainable uptrends and grow in there, just periods of ridiculous bubbles that don't last that long followed by LONG periods of dumps into the ground (that in previous bubble cycles stopped always higher, but that is irrelevant).
Look at the 2011 chart. The "$32 to $2" one. Sure, it eventually recovered and went into other bubbles after, but does it look like a healthy market to you? No, the majority of people responsible for those price increases (and consequent dumps) don't seem to care about using bitcoin or how many bitcoin they have, they care about how many dollars they are gonna get when they dump higher (or how many dollars they get when they close their shorts).

Do the words and expression "bubble" or "pump&dump" ring any bells here?

Daytraders, speculators ot trolls are not the problem, because these unnatural unhealthy price movements (exponential pumps or prolonged panics and relentless dumps) are an indication that bitcoin is not a payment system, but can only be a musical chairs "let's make a quick dollar" instrument. It doesn't have a real use (not for the majority of people involved in bitcoin for whatever reason) that would justify a high price aside from the speculative aspect of it as an end in itself.


A speculative bubble based on blind hype and kool aid works like this: As long as the pumps are possible because of a low enough price and marketcap everyone stays in the game, but when unsustainable long term "demand/supply inbalance" price range is reached (and that could have been the $500-$1000 range for BTC) shit hits the fan, THE bubble actually bursts and everybody starts to lose interest (demand goes to shit and price slowly and gradually decreases and doesn't recover anymore).


The only significant number of people (percentage) actually using bitcoin as payment system because of its only advantages to fiat money are drug dealers. And sometimes they get totally screwed by it anyway: http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-crash-drug-dealers-2015-1?r=US


Think about all that for a moment.

[Torque]

I know the comparison is highly unpopular here, but I still believe that Bitcoin has a lot in common with a ponzi scheme. There is tremendous peer pressure to stay into the 'game', if only to fill the pockets of people that were here before. I almost on a daily basis see people advising new members, that mostly have no clue about Bitcoin or where the price is headed, to buy as much as they can and 'hold'. It really is sickening to see sometimes.

I can understand your feelings on this.  But you must realize that if no one, I mean NO one held bitcoin at all, the price would drop to zero or near zero.  That includes the traders on the exchanges.  So holding HAS to be part of the equation, just like in PMs, stocks, commodities, etc.  This idea that no one should ever hold bitcoin is ridiculous, as then bitcoin would then have no market value at all.  More people holding and deciding what they WON'T sell it for fiat (or never back to fiat) is what gives bitcoin it's market price in the first place.

[Torque]

No, the majority of people responsible for those price increases (and consequent dumps) don't seem to care about using bitcoin or how many bitcoin they have, they care about how many dollars they are gonna get when they dump higher (or how many dollars they get when they close their shorts).

I don't usually respond to troll accounts, but I will this one time.  The rises might be from traders who don't really care about bitcoin, but the majority of Average Joe retail buyers would LOVE and envision a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, car, travel, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.

Oh please. lol
Sure, the r/bitcoin users who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that price doesn't matter during dumps actually care about paying for something online with their coins.


It's not like the most popular philosophy here and on reddit is that you should HODL your coins and don't spend them (AKA dump them, since merchants don't want no bitcoinz) and that bitcoin is a great gold 2.0 store of value 

[Shak]

you forget the trading joe here because they think that bitcoin has better chances to give them wealth than playing the lottery, but still trading to increase their stash

[oda.krell]

Thanks for shedding some realism on the situation. Most people here have never been interested in Bitcoin or its applications: that simply is a myth. Before I said that 80 or maybe 90% of the people posting here are only in it for the money, and not for the tech, and I'm gonna stick with that. There's an active movement, and that includes you too SgtBett, that actively make people dream of wealth and grandeur in the future. People only lose when they sell according to their philosophy, while the best thing to do throughout 2014, save during some short lived bumps upwards, was to instantly sell all your Bitcoins.

I know the comparison is highly unpopular here, but I still believe that Bitcoin has a lot in common with a ponzi scheme. There is tremendous peer pressure to stay into the 'game', if only to fill the pockets of people that were here before. I almost on a daily basis see people advising new members, that mostly have no clue about Bitcoin or where the price is headed, to buy as much as they can and 'hold'. It really is sickening to see sometimes.

This again: this instant agressiveness against anything that goes against the status quo here. If you rather not read it, press the 'ignore' button as quite a few people tend to do here. A sign of utter intellectual weakness (as it boils down to plugging your eyes and saying 'lalalalala can't hear you!'), but go ahead if that makes you feel better.

Your opinion isn't just "unpopular". It is pretty unsubstantiated. Which partially explains the aggressiveness you complain about.

Numbers like "80 or 90% don't care about Bitcoin" are pulled straight out of your ass. And are basically accusing anyone who is pro Bitcoin of being a shill or fraud.


And the comparison with a ponzi is as old as this forum. Yes, we understand: those who bought in at single digits are still enjoying happy profits, while those who bought in in late 2013 are sitting on a big loss, USD wise.

But that's where the similarity to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme ends. A Ponzi is by /definition/ unsustainable. Bitcoin has a number of usage cases, or at least so do some investors and speculators think. Depending on the exact usage case it'll settle on, total valuation could be much lower than now (that'd be the "failure" case, I guess), or it could be vastly higher.

So you have to excuse the older members who've heard it all, 3 or 4 times already, each time the market corrected down. Bitcoin might (I stand by that) still fail to gain mass adoption over time. But the arguments brought forward by the "critics", such as that there's a consolidated effort to brainwash everyone into buying more is pretty much bullshit. Doesn't mean the uber bulls are right, but it's a lot more likely they do drink their own kool aid - looking at the registration dates of those accounts, unless they were total idiots in 2011 and 2012, they benefited way too much from the market not to feel pretty good about. Genuinely good, not "let's trick the newcomers into buying this fad" good.

[Torque]

a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.

Oh please. lol
Sure, the r/bitcoin users who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that price doesn't matter during dumps actually care about paying for something online with their coins.


It's not like the most popular philosophy here and on reddit is that you should HODL your coins and don't spend them (AKA dump them, since merchants don't want no bitcoinz) and that bitcoin is a great gold 2.0 store of value  

You're the worst kind of troll, because if people actually bought into your stupid "bitcoin is worthless" argument then they would sell everything, never buy again, it would collapse to zero, and you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  

Be careful what you wish for, troll.  

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  

So?

[Torque]

you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  

So?

Well seeing that you're on this sub 24/7 now and are compelled to post 1000 times per day, it looks like you desparately need bitcoin to survive.  Which is ironic because you say its worthless.

Ok I'm done with you. Back to /Ignore you go.

[bassclef]

I know the comparison is highly unpopular here, but I still believe that Bitcoin has a lot in common with a ponzi scheme. There is tremendous peer pressure to stay into the 'game', if only to fill the pockets of people that were here before. I almost on a daily basis see people advising new members, that mostly have no clue about Bitcoin or where the price is headed, to buy as much as they can and 'hold'. It really is sickening to see sometimes.

Well, you'd better stay off Wall Street, never run for political office, never work for a large company, or god forbid work in the entertainment industry. Because everyone in every one of those establishments will knock your game piece off of the board in an instant, given the chance.

You call it a cult. The whole human race is a cult then: A cult to better ourselves at the expense of others. It's called natural selection.

Sorry to say but the world today is not such a rosy place once you're out of the nest. In my view we attract so many unskilled investors because they see it as a chance to dig their way out of a shitty life position. They don't have access to traditional investment vehicles like many of us in the US and EU but (thanks to technology) they happen to have a computer and are technically literate. To them Bitcoin is a way out, a way to financial freedom to whatever degree they'd like to use it. It is an opportunity for many who are stuck under the thumb of corrupt governments siphoning off their country's resources and fruits of its citizens' labor. Obviously a change like this would not happen overnight, and not necessarily with Bitcoin. Large price swings may scare some people, but looking at the bigger picture it is a blip. And there will be more price swings, more volatility, and more resistance by centralized powers. Strap in or get off the bus.

Here's another version of the chart. See where it says "point of maximum financial risk/opportunity"? It think it is relevant.

[homo homini lupus]

There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.

Not everyone posting here does so for the purpose of manipulation.


on topic:

Stages of the market apply not here because we just witnessed a multi-year epic bubble pop. Possibly the biggest bubble since the famous tulipmania. Prices will go to  doubledigits most likely - to the real value.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.

If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.0

[nakaone]

the problem with valueation of btc is especially critical in this part of the forum.

every person spending a day researching bitcoin and its potential understands that it has fundamentals - it will just in one case be worthless, and that is the very unlikely case that it is dethroned as the cryptocurrency #1.
spending the second day using and grasping the concept, you will very likely understand that we are far away from mass adoption. - gavin put it the best way: he said it is an experiment and he will not tell the general public to use or to buy it at this point of time. this might change, but I think for the time being it is an experiment for geeks speculators and people trying to innovate the financial industry.

[oblivi]

Good call OP. I actually think we going for another dip down the 100's, then the recapitulation showing Bitcoin resilence by begin. By 2016 we should see a couple suicides happening by twice-boat-missers.

[brg444]

There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.

If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.0

Early adopters are actually sitting pretty tight on their stash

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

[Biodom]

A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.

If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=496365.0

Early adopters are actually sitting pretty tight on their stash

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

You mean a part of them (that for all you know is a small fraction of all early adopters, and probably is) are losing huge quantities of money every month?
Sure, I know.

[Torque]

A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.

Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.

Whale traders determine where the absolute bottom will be.  Not Average Joe.

[Biodom]

A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.

Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.

yes, of course, there is no investment law that lows have to be revisited.

[NotLambchop]

...
Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.
...

The price is creeping down, not up.  And it's not really creeping, it's going at a healthy clip



@bassclef re. 'See where it says "point of maximum financial risk/opportunity"?':
See where it says "Temporary setback, I'm a long-term investor"?  Yeah, you.