Long-term discussion on Bitcoin's price trend

[knight]

I invite anyone to join a long-term topic on how you think bitcoin is going to behave. You can speculate, smart guess, comment on any timeframe you want, from hours to years (short, medium and longterm). You can also post comments on things (news, developments etc) that you think affect price, either up or down.

So far, we are seeing the first cryptocurrency in it's most prolonged bear market ever. Price declined steadily for last 14 months and no sign of recovery yet. Even if we had some pump-and-dumps along the way, we're still at 220 USD.

My sincere thought is that we'll see mind-blowing lows (I won't give any target because that's pretty much impossible) and afterward the market will recover fast, so fast it will be prime time news.

[rm1023]

I would say 450+ this time next year.  Good time to buy.  After seeing the volume when it dropped blow 200, I could care less about the short term drops.  This really is a good time to buy, in my opinion.   

[rm1023]

and your mass adoption is where?? in a circle jerk of speculators?

Coinbase Exchange and Gemini should lead to another speculative round of adoption in the next year.

[innocent93]

I would say the general trend is DOWN, this is what happened in last year, from $1,000 to $ 200, But we don't know whether $200 is the bottom or not.

[cbeast]

and your mass adoption is where?? in a circle jerk of speculators?

Is that your porn fetish? You might want to pay for it with Bitcoin so nobody sees it on your credit card bill.

[oda.krell]

I invite anyone to join a long-term topic on how you think bitcoin is going to behave. You can speculate, smart guess, comment on any timeframe you want, from hours to years (short, medium and longterm). You can also post comments on things (news, developments etc) that you think affect price, either up or down.

So far, we are seeing the first cryptocurrency in it's most prolonged bear market ever. Price declined steadily for last 14 months and no sign of recovery yet. Even if we had some pump-and-dumps along the way, we're still at 220 USD.

My sincere thought is that we'll see mind-blowing lows (I won't give any target because that's pretty much impossible) and afterward the market will recover fast, so fast it will be prime time news.

Not a bad idea for a topic, but not like that.

You don't need to specify exact targets, but with vagueness like 'mind-blowing lows' over a non-specified time frame, you can always claim you're right.

An interesting idea for a game, a bit like dnaleor's trading game, but on a longer horizon, would be something along the lines of each participant entering some key market facts he/she believes will take place, like:

Within the next 90 days, the highest price (as per Bitfinex) will be X.
Within the next 90 days, the lowest price (as per Bitfinex)  will be Y.
The 90 day VWMA on Bitfinex in 90 days from now will be Z.

That'd be an interesting exercise, imo. Still means you can be right even if you don't hit the exact target, but it does also force you to commit to one scenario that can be evaluated against other posters' predictions at the end of the period.

[ndnh]

Bitcoin just needs a push. Once it crosses the barrier, to say $400 decently, it can only go up and up for a few months.

I personally expect the bull run to begin in under 7 days. Till then it will just go sideways, the straight up, little down and then a lot up..

[Q7]

Current level looks to be stable for now and from here, anything is still possible. It's so difficult to predict on short-term scale because there are so many factors that comes in place here. Look at long term. I believe anywhere near the 800 range is achievable in 2-3 years time period given the progress the coins have made. Talk about progress, where is paypal integration???

[Fabrizio89]

This bear market may be still a long way before it's over, I'm not saying ten years, but definetely another year or a bit more is definitely possible. When the halving will come, a good sell pressure will be released from the market and at that point so much opportunities and infrastructure will be available.

[gentlemand]

This bear market may be still a long way before it's over, I'm not saying ten years, but definetely another year or a bit more is definitely possible. When the halving will come, a good sell pressure will be released from the market and at that point so much opportunities and infrastructure will be available.

I don't think miners are much of a factor in sell pressure. If they're well organised enough sales will be on the OTC market.

The sell pressure is dumpers looking for short term profits. I'm not so sure that'll be going away any time soon.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Are charts ok?
What if I said we are looking at another year of bear?  <- that's nervous laughing not happiness.


This is just something I was working on last night. There is no real confirmation of this idea yet, but recent price action suggests this as a real possibility.
One thing to note, the final zigzag down is not a measured move so that double digit bottom is not for prediction's sake. It is just to show direction and possible duration if this were to come to fruition.

[myself]

Are charts ok?
What if I said we are looking at another year of bear?  <- that's nervous laughing not happiness.
https://i.imgur.com/fAt3XlZ.png

This is just something I was working on last night. There is no real confirmation of this idea yet, but recent price action suggests this as a real possibility.
One thing to note, the final zigzag down is not a measured move so that double digit bottom is not for prediction's sake. It is just to show direction and possible duration if this were to come to fruition.

that target fit into this fibo

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

[calci]

I invite anyone to join a long-term topic on how you think bitcoin is going to behave. You can speculate, smart guess, comment on any timeframe you want, from hours to years (short, medium and longterm). You can also post comments on things (news, developments etc) that you think affect price, either up or down.

So far, we are seeing the first cryptocurrency in it's most prolonged bear market ever. Price declined steadily for last 14 months and no sign of recovery yet. Even if we had some pump-and-dumps along the way, we're still at 220 USD.

My sincere thought is that we'll see mind-blowing lows (I won't give any target because that's pretty much impossible) and afterward the market will recover fast, so fast it will be prime time news.

It depends on a lot of factors. We still don't have mass adoption due to people fearing volatility. By next year, however people are expecting halving to make a differece, and it might.
But I am not sure, how much would saving 1800 coins from being dumped would increase the price by much. Only time will tell.

[rm1023]

and your mass adoption is where?? in a circle jerk of speculators?

Coinbase Exchange and Gemini should lead to another speculative round of adoption in the next year.

Did it ever occur to you that the Winklevii twins are complete idiots?

lol, I will reserve my judgement for now.     

[Chef Ramsay]

and your mass adoption is where?? in a circle jerk of speculators?

Coinbase Exchange and Gemini should lead to another speculative round of adoption in the next year.

Did it ever occur to you that the Winklevii twins are complete idiots?

lol, I will reserve my judgement for now.     

Doesn't really matter whether they're idiots or not, I'm sure they have some decent advisers that pointed out a smart route for them to take w/ their stake. They've got one of the top shelf attorneys that knows her way around the hen house over at the SEC on the case, so it's in good hands and headed for prominence once it gets going. W/ this kind of attorney on the case, who's likely on a first name basis with those that you need to make things happen, it's only a matter of time before the operation is up and running. Beyond that, it adds credibility to their ETF in the eyes of the big money shots.

[knight]

I never trusted Coinbase and now I have my reward. It seems they lied big time.

Nothing personal but I wouldn't trust anyone that lies with any kind of amount of money, and I hope they go down like a rock. Tthis affects, once-again, very deeply the image of Bitcoin.

Not that many people can understand that a free concept, like Bitcoin, can be used by anyone for any means.

[Nagle]

The driving force behind Bitcoin is illegal activity. Silk Road drugs, China exchange control evasion, and, in the background, gambling. Without some new large-scale illegal or semi-illegal activity adopting Bitcoin, the overall trend is down.

[azguard]

The driving force behind Bitcoin is illegal activity. Silk Road drugs, China exchange control evasion, and, in the background, gambling. Without some new large-scale illegal or semi-illegal activity adopting Bitcoin, the overall trend is down.

still this can be change with something but i dont think that it will go below 200 this year
for others above it was one with prediction 450 this is hard to happen in this year more like range between 200-300

[BitCoinNutJob]

Are charts ok?
What if I said we are looking at another year of bear?  <- that's nervous laughing not happiness.


This is just something I was working on last night. There is no real confirmation of this idea yet, but recent price action suggests this as a real possibility.
One thing to note, the final zigzag down is not a measured move so that double digit bottom is not for prediction's sake. It is just to show direction and possible duration if this were to come to fruition.

If that worked out i'd just buy tons more, not worried about any scenario other then how to spend it all when it does finally moon.

[Ailure]

The next halving would certainly be interesting, especially if you believe the downtrend during 2014 was caused by new supply without new adopters. It's about one year and six months away from now. So 2015 might wind up being a bit boring compared to 2016 (but BTC might still go up if slowly during 2015 I hope, but i'm not confident to say we're at the bottom either), but who knows.

Last halving did make BTC go from double digits to triple digits, so the psychological effect is there I think. Then again, some altcoins have proved that halvings are not necessarily directly affecting value, but other hand the bitcoin halving would be widely celebrated in the BTC community.