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Author Topic: [Open Draft] Betmarket -- distributed prediction market  (Read 1447 times)
Ukigo
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July 20, 2012, 05:55:18 PM
 #1

Hi all !

I can't stop me dreaming about my World Dominance plan, so ...  Smiley
I've reread this thread :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10011.0;all
And now i have an idea to revive "[RFC]Betcoin" project
in attempt to drive it further, at least to the point where we'll have
complete working design concept of the prediction market.
Or even working implementation.  Grin

Who's with me ?!
Join our Army of Darkness !  Smiley

Betmarket is just temporary codename, later we can change it to
something more suitable or crowdname it.

   What we need :

 1) we need some kind of storage for bets and/or betting transactions.
      Be it dedicated "betting"  blockchain or non-blockchain based type of storage.

  2) we need "distributed betting board" type of betting client application.

  3) we need  some mechanism in place to decide about event outcome
      without human participation -- some sort of "oracle" or whatever.

  4) What else Huh




"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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Ukigo
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July 20, 2012, 05:56:25 PM
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"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 20, 2012, 05:58:05 PM
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"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 20, 2012, 05:59:59 PM
 #4

  OPEN CHALLENGES aka weak points of the concept :
 
   1) If we use our own "betting" blockchain -- what design must it have ?

   2) If we use non-blockchain storage -- what kind of storage could be appropriate for our needs ?

  3) If our betchain is merged-mined , what kind of MM do we need ?

  4) Which kind of the Darknet will use our betting client ?

  5) How to decide the event outcome without necessity to have human  referee/judge ?

  666) How to prevent "assassination market"'s  creation ?
        Is such prevention possible at all ?!

  7) What type of escrow for bettors' money do we really need ?

  88) How must we treat/handle vague ( undecisive/quirky ) betting statements ?

  9) How can we design "bet" datastructures in a manner suitable for buying/selling
   allready made by somebody else bets on the secondary market ?
  
 
 
 

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 22, 2012, 11:05:03 AM
 #5

my thoughts about challenge #9:
 It is much more easier to design Betmarket (here&after : BM) as something
 similar to betsofbitco.in's model, rather as something like Intrade prediction
 market.
Because if we "close" challenge #9 we don't need to build distributed exchange
for bets (that is a big hassle on its own ).

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 22, 2012, 08:35:23 PM
 #6

On challenges #1 & #2 :

 There are 3 variants of design of BM's data storage :

  1) We store ALL our data in new specialised blockchain ( betchain ).

  2) We store ALL our data in some kind of
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributed_data_store,
 and if so BM won't have it's own   blockchain.
<-- this option, likely have too
 little benefits in comparison with 1) -- so let's drop it.
 

  3) We store all data encoded as transactions (standard and/or non-standard ).
   Those transactions will "pollute" the blockhain of Bitcoin or maybe Litecoin.
   This option has it's own advantages, though i'm not sure : is this possible technically ?!
   Esp. if only standard txses are used for encoding of betting data ?
-------------------------------------------------
 All 3 options have its own pro and contra. What to choose ? <-- that's the Question  Smiley Undecided
    
PS: I was advised by Satan not to do anything on challenge 666.
      HIM is promising me his help with coding of BM.  Cool
  

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 23, 2012, 08:25:26 AM
 #7

Very relevant thread :
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8821.0;all
There are MANY brilliant thoughts there.

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Ukigo
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July 25, 2012, 01:57:21 PM
 #8

 Now i have insane idea : "paper betting"  Smiley
 
 51) there are "introducers" ( at least 1 (person or robot ))
 they only create correct betting statements
 from thin air and users' wishes and publish them on webserver (maybe tor hidden service),
 only published bets are open for betting ( the measure against Assas.Market and other abuses)

 52) User of the "paper" BM in betting app creates  his "identity" (username + keypair )
   and sets up his *coin address tied to his "identity".

 53) Now user can "paper" bet  any amount of coins <= MAX_BET (constant,  say 100 BTC ),
    user's bet then records and propagates through BM to other client apps.
    In fact no coin changes owner at this stage and no escrow is needed.
    
 54) when bet expires, the "oracle" ( again : robot or human with suicidal habits )
  announces the outcome of the event into the BM.
     Inside the betting apps distributed matching engine calculates amongst
   all bettors of this very bet (on both sides of the bet -- true and false ):
  who must transfer *coins to whom and specific amounts of each transfer.
  Then the responcibility of the users to perform "sentenced" transactions
   from *coin address tied to their identities.
  Yes , many of users will cheat and don't transfer, but other honest bettors
 will act responcibly  Smiley  So system will still partially work and clever bettor
 can earn money from his wisdom.

 What else can be done against cheaters ?!

 55) users cheating to much will be  banned by BM system.
   It must be easy, cuz all players will be able to see who is responcible and who is not.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 This is definetly not a prediction market, because of cheating "allowed".
 But system can refine "prediction" by simply discarding bets  made by cheaters
 from results, after bet has expired.
 
 Of course, this "paper" plan has flaws -- but
  a)  it's quite simple to implement
  b)  this is a low-trust  solution
  c) third party risks are minimized
  
Any thoughts ?!

  

 

 

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
TimJBenham
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February 16, 2013, 10:27:26 AM
 #9

 OPEN CHALLENGES aka weak points of the concept :
 
  5) How to decide the event outcome without necessity to have human  referee/judge ?

Without (super)human level AI I don't see how that is possible. For example, a boxing match is decided by the judges, who are human. If you want to bet on it then you are at least relying on the judges, unless you have a super-AI that can say, "The judges scored it 112-110 for Rodriguez but I am awarding it to Lopez instead". I think that would cause more disputes than relying on humans!

Some event outcomes could be defined in terms of observable events on the web. For example, instead of betting on whether Miami Heat will beat the Trail Blazers you can bet on whether Yahoo! sport will display a greater score for MH than TB at such and such an URL at such and such a time. This removes the site operator's discretion but introduces problems of its own.

You are a warlord in the outskirts of the known world struggling to establish a kingdom in the wild lands.
Ukigo
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February 16, 2013, 11:06:08 AM
 #10

@TimJBenham
Unfortunately, you aren't the first with this solution. Wink
Something similar (AI based oracle) was suggested by 'markm' - the member of these forums.

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
wiggi
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February 17, 2013, 07:35:40 PM
 #11

 OPEN CHALLENGES aka weak points of the concept :
 
  5) How to decide the event outcome without necessity to have human  referee/judge ?

Without (super)human level AI I don't see how that is possible. For example, a boxing match is decided by the judges, who are human. If you want to bet on it then you are at least relying on the judges, unless you have a super-AI that can say, "The judges scored it 112-110 for Rodriguez but I am awarding it to Lopez instead". I think that would cause more disputes than relying on humans!


Why not let the miners decide as referees. They will not be dishonest or lazy,
lest they damage the coin they just mined.

Main purpose of this coin/block chain must be betting, of course. Bitcoin miners would be
mostly uninterested.
TimJBenham
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March 02, 2013, 11:47:22 AM
 #12

Some event outcomes could be defined in terms of observable events on the web.
Sure! Just observe the event outcomes posted to a noncommercial prediction market such as Ideosphere's Foresight Exchange.

Just layer Bitcoin on top of another site that already decides outcomes.

Sounds great. What happens when the admin of the noncommercial prediction market discovers he can make big munnies by posting bogus outcomes?

You are a warlord in the outskirts of the known world struggling to establish a kingdom in the wild lands.
agorism
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August 25, 2014, 01:02:31 AM
 #13

http://forum.truthcoin.info/index.php
A forum for a prediction market on a blockchain
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