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Author Topic: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?  (Read 13993 times)
nrb
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August 14, 2012, 11:03:58 PM
 #81

Given the following parameters:

Starting Bankroll: 30BTC
Starting Bet: 3 BTC
Bet Increase Factor: 2
Game: "lessthan 32768"

Running some simulations came to approximately a 13% chance of ending with 150 BTC. In which case it's probably better to just play "lessthan 12000" which gives you a 18.3105% at 5.335x your money.
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jermwerty
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August 15, 2012, 06:19:29 AM
 #82

I know BTC is for the 'bettin man (& risk takers) for sure but I really admit I am surprised the DICE are still rockin it...  Too risky for my bood, goodluck all!
TenDrawBTC
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October 30, 2012, 02:47:25 PM
 #83

Ok so lets say you have BTC131.072 and you only bet 0.001 to start with and double it each time... Oh and lets say this is on a 36% game.

0.001
0.002
0.004
0.008
0.016
0.032
0.064
0.128
0.256
0.512
1.024
2.048
4.096
8.192
16.384
32.768
65.536
131.072

So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable.


So now lets say you have BTC8388.608 and you start with the absolute minumum bet again BTC0.001 that's 24 attempts of winning on the odds of 36% each time, that's a 12k profit, seems great if you quit when you are ahead
Can anyone elaborate on this layman theory... Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!?

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October 30, 2012, 03:28:18 PM
 #84

So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable.

They are probable, In fact, the chance of coming out with a win is 99.967%. The problem is that you have to put BTC262,144 on the line, so the .033% of the time you do lose will completely wipe out any past winnings and could potentially bankrupt you.
Akka
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October 30, 2012, 03:35:07 PM
 #85

TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables.

Yours is in there to.

I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns.

All I can say is: "The house always wins.

Although the probability of winning in any gambling game 1.000.000 with a starting bet of 10 is still higher than with a 10$ lotto ticket. So there must be people which have something that feels like an endless winning streak and think their strategy works. (By the way Lotto has such a high House edge that nobody would play it in a casino. Don't play lotto!)

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TenDrawBTC
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October 30, 2012, 04:44:13 PM
 #86

TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables.

Yours is in there to.

I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns.

That is really interesting. Yep the martingale strategy is a tricky one because you feel like you are invincible.

pant
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October 30, 2012, 05:34:21 PM
 #87

I've only lost some 10 BTC on satoshi, too.

The biggest win was 4 BTC at time.

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October 30, 2012, 05:57:26 PM
 #88

and now a word from our sponsor... "I won a bunch of coins on satoshi dice!"

but math is math.

In other news, I'm raffling away about 100BTC worth of equipment. You'll need to register on butterflylabs.com forum and vote for me starting tomorrow at 5pm PST for the raffle to take place. It is contingent on my winning a BFL contest.

Its free to enter the raffle, just leave a comment on my youtube contest entry. Keep it civil please.

here's my contest entry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=On0r-7XGf0U


No risk and a pretty decent chance at winning a bunch of GPU mining hardware! Good Luck.
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October 30, 2012, 07:11:45 PM
 #89

Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!?

No.  The problem is that each time you win, you win the minimum amount, but the one time you lose, you lose everything.  The millions of min bets you win aren't quite enough to make up for the one huge loss when you lose 20 times in a row and get wiped out.

The bottom line is that there is no way to profit in the long run from betting on a game which always has a negative expectation no matter how you vary your bet size.

The only reason people can make a living playing blackjack is that some of the time it has a positive expectation (which you can determine by counting cards), and those are the times to bet big.  With SD, the expectation is always negative, so betting big at some times won't help you.

JordanL
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October 30, 2012, 07:49:04 PM
 #90

I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again.
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October 30, 2012, 08:54:11 PM
 #91

I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again.

Satoshi Dice has been having terrible luck for the last 10 days or so.  Either that or someone has figured out how to cheat.

I post graphs of their winnings over time.  Here's todays:

  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1307533#msg1307533

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January 06, 2013, 09:19:16 AM
 #92

I made over 300 BTC, starting with 7.

I hope his family doesn't starve this week.  Tongue
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January 06, 2013, 04:42:47 PM
 #93

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?
Wow i can't believe this?? :/
kokojie
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January 06, 2013, 05:31:05 PM
 #94

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

That's completely normal, I've made over 200 BTC on SDice with my martingale strategy. That's exactly what martingale will do for you, it allow you to win small winnings over time, then at some point, you will meet one gigantic loss. How well martingale works depends on the max bet limit and your own bank roll. In theory, if you had a huge bankroll, and the casino allows extremely large max bet, it's unlikely for you to lose even in millions of rounds of play. But eventually, you will lose, the probability guarantees it.

If my post has been helpful, send me some love -> BTC: 1kokojUapmWqCqPw3Ch2rjcVh57tJEzka | PPC: PDyXAgA8eH47gokVW6zVZPSuu15aao5nZF | Bitshares: kokojie
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barbarousrelic
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January 06, 2013, 05:40:54 PM
 #95

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.)

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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January 06, 2013, 10:59:09 PM
 #96

If you did win that much you were truly lucky. I advise everyone to stay away from gambling you will lose your money.

"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future"

BTC: 1BrASUAbyxpieNdKYpHCPaoSHVeoYjF6TR
dooglus
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January 06, 2013, 11:03:59 PM
 #97

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

That's interesting.

I looked into this, and found a surprising result:

If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5":

Code:
>>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828

That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x.  Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher:

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =  18.34444122, spent =   18.34494122, win =  146.76222078, lose =   0.09122220, back =   0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =  20.95186542, spent =   39.29730664, win =  167.62263649, lose =   0.10425932, back =   0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =  23.92990113, spent =   63.22770777, win =  191.44808952, lose =   0.11914950, back =   0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =  27.33122595, spent =   90.55943371, win =  218.66002143, lose =   0.13615612, back =   0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =  31.21600495, spent =  121.77593866, win =  249.73977624, lose =   0.15558002, back =   0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =  35.65295485, spent =  157.42939351, win =  285.23711477, lose =   0.17776477, back =   0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =  40.72055959, spent =  198.15045311, win =  325.77993920, lose =   0.20310279, back =   0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =  46.50845857, spent =  244.65941167, win =  372.08539985, lose =   0.23204229, back =   0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =  53.11903225, spent =  297.77894393, win =  424.97258068, lose =   0.26509516, back =   1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =  60.66921318, spent =  358.44865710, win =  485.37698775, lose =   0.30284606, back =   1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet =  69.29255432, spent =  427.74171142, win =  554.36709722, lose =   0.34596277, back =   1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet =  79.14159147, spent =  506.88380289, win =  633.16325523, lose =   0.39520795, back =   2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet =  90.39054140, spent =  597.27484429, win =  723.15926428, lose =   0.45145270, back =   2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent =  700.51372784, win =  825.94703784, lose =   0.51569191, back =   2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent =  818.42660753, win =  943.34475917, lose =   0.58906189, back =   3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent =  953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose =   0.67286046, back =   4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose =   0.76856991, back =   4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose =   0.87788322, back =   5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose =   1.00273399, back =   6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)

I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC.  That's a payout of 1.0866x:

Code:
>>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056

How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that).

tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win.  Is there a flaw in my reasoning here?

kokojie
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January 06, 2013, 11:07:39 PM
 #98

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.)

Not really, my martingale strategy is calculated to have 1 catastrophic loss in about 89000 rounds played, so far I have been lucky and about +200 BTC.

The 97.6% odd game is what, 1 catastrophic loss in about 50 rounds? that's not acceptable to me. Also my martingale strategy actually uses the 24% odd game, instead of the 50%.

I think the key with martingale is take your initial small winnings, and walk away.

If my post has been helpful, send me some love -> BTC: 1kokojUapmWqCqPw3Ch2rjcVh57tJEzka | PPC: PDyXAgA8eH47gokVW6zVZPSuu15aao5nZF | Bitshares: kokojie
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January 06, 2013, 11:33:39 PM
 #99

I just lost 8$ thanks a lot  Cry

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January 07, 2013, 01:55:56 AM
 #100

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!
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