Bitcoin Forum
December 11, 2016, 06:10:06 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?  (Read 13994 times)
SouthernComfort
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28



View Profile
January 07, 2013, 03:52:51 AM
 #101

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

+1

Bitcoin Fanatic!
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
LTC555
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42



View Profile
January 07, 2013, 09:32:08 PM
 #102


If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that.  Shocked

And how much have you spent?



I started with 30 BTC. I made it to 100 BTC without going into the red.

You are one lucky duck.... buy a lottery ticket soon lol

18jcPx7zRUdHiwVJD7Y1isiHXDY3e3jbeL
Invictus
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 124


View Profile
January 08, 2013, 04:01:55 AM
 #103

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and  you can gamble your way up.

I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360.
jiangchun
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14


View Profile
January 08, 2013, 05:09:40 AM
 #104

Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK.

I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat.

now you can see why i feel like a total smart ass staying 30 BTC ahead forever Cheesy

+1
Invictus
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 124


View Profile
January 10, 2013, 03:53:30 AM
 #105

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and  you can gamble your way up.

I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360.

As with all dumb people, you just don't understand the difference between short term and long term. Now begonne, ruin your life with gambling.

If you're so smart, then why do I have made over 400 coins out of thin air and you didn't?

Start with x BTC win your first bet, put the x BTC away. Then it doesn't matter how long you gamble, you cannot lose one single coin. You can only lose gambling money.

So why not take the 1.9% risk professor chicken?
Financisto
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 463

★BFG★


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 02:03:12 AM
 #106

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

That's interesting.

I looked into this, and found a surprising result:

If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5":

Code:
>>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828

That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x.  Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher:

Code:
win on turn  1 : bet =  18.34444122, spent =   18.34494122, win =  146.76222078, lose =   0.09122220, back =   0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =  20.95186542, spent =   39.29730664, win =  167.62263649, lose =   0.10425932, back =   0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =  23.92990113, spent =   63.22770777, win =  191.44808952, lose =   0.11914950, back =   0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =  27.33122595, spent =   90.55943371, win =  218.66002143, lose =   0.13615612, back =   0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =  31.21600495, spent =  121.77593866, win =  249.73977624, lose =   0.15558002, back =   0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =  35.65295485, spent =  157.42939351, win =  285.23711477, lose =   0.17776477, back =   0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =  40.72055959, spent =  198.15045311, win =  325.77993920, lose =   0.20310279, back =   0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =  46.50845857, spent =  244.65941167, win =  372.08539985, lose =   0.23204229, back =   0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =  53.11903225, spent =  297.77894393, win =  424.97258068, lose =   0.26509516, back =   1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =  60.66921318, spent =  358.44865710, win =  485.37698775, lose =   0.30284606, back =   1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet =  69.29255432, spent =  427.74171142, win =  554.36709722, lose =   0.34596277, back =   1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet =  79.14159147, spent =  506.88380289, win =  633.16325523, lose =   0.39520795, back =   2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet =  90.39054140, spent =  597.27484429, win =  723.15926428, lose =   0.45145270, back =   2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent =  700.51372784, win =  825.94703784, lose =   0.51569191, back =   2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent =  818.42660753, win =  943.34475917, lose =   0.58906189, back =   3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent =  953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose =   0.67286046, back =   4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose =   0.76856991, back =   4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose =   0.87788322, back =   5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose =   1.00273399, back =   6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)

I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC.  That's a payout of 1.0866x:

Code:
>>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056

How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that).

tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win.  Is there a flaw in my reasoning here?

Sorry for the topic resurrection after 5 months...

But the above observation is interesting. Even though betting < 8000 continues to be -EV...

BTW, that's an intriguing issue. And it seems to be a lesser dangerous approach than traditional martingale strategy.

Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts?

Did anyone else think about it?

Compilation of Brainwallet & Paper wallet generators Blockchain Financial Group Blokĉeno Financa Grupo
dooglus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 07:38:43 AM
 #107

Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts?

Yes, I did:

You can either

a) place a sequence of martingale bets, starting small, and doubling your stake until you win or reach an upper limit, or

b) place a single large equivalent bet for the maximum total amount that a) could lose, aiming to win the same amount as a) would win (you would have to find a site that let you make up your own custom bets.  no idea where you would find such a thing Wink )

Since the house edge is constant over all bets, meaning you expect to lose a fixed percentage of everything you bet, and in a) you usually don't bet your whole bankroll, but in b) you always do, a) loses less and is so the better option.

legendster
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 07:44:24 AM
 #108

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  Cry

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

Beseecher of souls art I. Be ye afraid neigh of my trifling nature. For it is I the death and the devourer of worlds.
SRoulette
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364



View Profile WWW
June 17, 2013, 08:01:37 AM
 #109

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  Cry

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

legendster
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 08:29:42 AM
 #110

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  Cry

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

Beseecher of souls art I. Be ye afraid neigh of my trifling nature. For it is I the death and the devourer of worlds.
SRoulette
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364



View Profile WWW
June 17, 2013, 08:32:25 AM
 #111

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  Cry

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ?

Sound logic you have there Tongue

bauerrr
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 20


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 08:54:19 AM
 #112

I loose ocer 15btc and I blocked this page
fuck it
larem
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 10:24:02 AM
 #113

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  Cry

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ?

Sound logic you have there Tongue

Definitely. The site has to get its money somewhere... if it always paid people MORE than they put in, they'd go out of business, lol.

fast2fix
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 911



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 10:26:52 AM
 #114

That's good man.Don't bet more you'll loose it all gl.

Doken
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 41



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 10:49:38 AM
 #115

I haven't many bitcoins to play and loose or win...
CryptoCluster
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 84



View Profile
June 17, 2013, 10:58:08 AM
 #116

"The house always <finally> wins".

"The cumulative development of a medium of exchange on the free market — is the only way money can become established. ... government is powerless to create money for the economy; it can only be developed by the processes of the free market." M. N. Rothbard
junglist.massive
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 514


internet 2.0


View Profile
June 17, 2013, 11:01:51 AM
 #117

never again
:/

tspacepilot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


I will write code in exchange for bitcoins.


View Profile
August 20, 2013, 02:40:31 PM
 #118

Yahoo, please send me a donation for the poor if you need help spending your winnings.

Congrats!

fildza
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


Ask me anything if you have any problem


View Profile WWW
August 20, 2013, 02:49:30 PM
 #119

Yup , that the safest way to play but nothing is perfect. When you lose streak until don't have any balance to play because the bitcoin to play very high , then you will down

█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
▓▓▓▓▓  BIT-X.comvvvvvvvvvvvvvvi
→ CREATE ACCOUNT 
▓▓▓▓▓
█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
adworker
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 167


View Profile
August 20, 2013, 03:03:43 PM
 #120

Doubling bet after Loss is good strategy, but you have to start with very small amounts because it can go to very high waggers in very short time  Cheesy
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!