coz its a gambling site....why will people belive u thar a gambling site is steeling coins
because they want to win every time and they forget that the casinos were not invented for that. you cannot win against them.
That is the thing and with the max win per wager as most sites do even a martingale strategy will eventually fail, assuming you do not first run out of your bankroll. Even with a 95% chance of winning there is still provable statistical odds of a long string of consecutive losses. The site profit would increase dramatically if people do not have a large enough bankroll. The odds of 2 consecutive losses would be 0.05*0.05 = 1:400. 4 consecutive losses 1:160,000. 6 consecutive losses 1:64,000,000. Lotteries in the US are often 1:175,000,000 for the grand prize (powerball, a multi-state lottery is exactly that).
With 95% chance to win you have to have almost 1900% wager increases to win back enough to cover previously lost bets. If your base wager is 10 satoshi and a 1900% increase it goes 10->200->40000->8000000->16BTC->320 BTC. Most people will not have that much in their bankroll anyway. The odds of that happening are only 1:64 million. Its not hard to make millions of bets.
If the RNG is flawed as I suspect it is there will be ups and downs in the numbers generated. This results in the odds skewing so at some points its less likely at others its more likely.
This does not mean that no cheating is going on, it just means that its highly probable that over time users will lose.
My second post in this thread goes into the numbers much more deeply.
When running simulations, at a 49.95% bet (999dice's 2:1 odds number, given the house edge), I repeatedly saw instances where the roll was failed over 350 times IN A ROW.
He's the simple math of it - if you lower the base bet to a number small enough that you can cover-by-doubling your losses to an "impossible to lose" point, you are going to have to bet enough times to make any significant winnings that the "impossible to lose" odds are suddenly a very real reality.
Lets use 999dice's numbers: Betting 95% win gets you x1.05157 your bet on a win. To even win anything, you'd need to bet at least 20 satoshi, as anything less than 20 satoshi results in winnings less than 1 satoshi.
To recoup your losses on 999dice, you need to bet 19.38x your last bet.
20 sat bets
After 1 loss: 387 satoshi
2? 7500 satoshi
3? 145535 sats
4? .0281 BTC
5? .546 BTC
6? 10.581 BTC
That's all we're willing to do. Not lose more than that.
What are the chances?
To lose once: 5% - 1 in 20
Lose twice in a row: .25% - 1 in 400
Three times: .0125% - 1 in 8000
Four? .000625% chance - 1 in 160,000
Five times in a row? .00003125% chance - 1 in 3.2 million
Six? .0000015625% - 1 in 64 million
And finally... 7... It's a 1 in 1.28 BILLION chance to lose that 7th roll. Impossible. Even the lottery is easier to win.
So, on any given roll, you are risking about 11.15 BTC to win 1 satoshi. Of course your chances of losing are 1 in 1.28 BILLION, so it's "impossible".
But winning 1 satoshi is hardly worth the effort. Whats your goal? Lets be really safe and say we just want .25 BTC. To get that, we'd need to roll slightly over 25 million times. Slightly over, because 5% of all rolls will be a loss, and it's a wasted roll, so we'll need to roll the recovery roll. So...
25 million - 5% is:
1.25mil re-rolls, and 23.75 million wins.
5% of the 1.25 million rerolls will also be losses, statistically speaking. So:
1.25mil 1st rerolls
62500 2nd... oh and 5% of those...
3125 3rd rerolls... and 5% of those...
156 (rounding down) 4th... and 5% of those...
7 (rounding down) 5th rerolls, and 5% of those...
well, rounding down, thank god we don't lose any of the 6th 10.581 BTC rolls.
So, we have 1,315,788 wasted rolls to losses, and 23,684,212 wins. We lost 5.55% of the rolls to losses, so lets up that to getting us .2368 BTC in winnings. So we need to roll 26,470,432 times to, in theory, get .25 BTC.
Thats 26.47 million chances to roll that 1 in 1.28 billion. Whats that work out to? 1,280,000,000 / 26,470,432?
48. 1 in 48 odds to fail your roll 7 times in a row. 1 in 48 is a 2% chance. Would you risk 11.15 BTC to win .25 BTC?
If you are, save yourself a lot of time, and go bet 11.15 BTC over at 98% odds. This is where part of my example does not add up, as 999dice doesn't allow 98% bets. While Primedice DOES, their edge is 10x as large, making the math not work out. But lets say 999dice DID allow 98% bets. It would pay out 99.9/98 which is 1.01938. So, you'd get 1.938% of your risk back as winnings.
Whats 1.938% of 11.15?
.216.
Damn close to the .25 you were trying to get (the house edge breaks this example a bit - if you had no edge at all, the numbers would be much closer.) And with only ONE chance to lose it. If you did the 25 million bets, while its a 1 in 48 chance to lose it, there's also a very small chance it happens 2 or more times. Using some complicated binomial probability distribution mumbo jumbo, while there's only a 2% chance you lose 11.15 BTC trying to get .25 BTC, there's also a .000456% chance - 1 in 219k chance it happens 2 or more times. Yes, really small, but you could lose even more than 11.15 BTC.
Moral of the story: How many times can a 5% loss chance lose in a row? An infinite number. It just depends on how many chances you give it to happen.
Moral 2: Don't try and beat math. She's a mean mofo.