How 999dice.com is stealing your coins, and exactly why you won't believe me

[onemorebtc]

very good find.
i wont say they are cheating but they are not a provably fair system then

[dooglus]

Well two things:
First, you cannot use binomial distribution for events which rely on each other (lose 3 in a row) unless you calculate the odds of losing 3 in a row and use that as a single failure event. Problem is a single failure event "uses up" rolls. Ie: if you are rolling 20 times, but have 3 failures, 6 of the 20 are "used" up as part of the failure run. Hence my use of "runs" instead of rolls.

Right. I don't think anyone is counting rolls. We're counting "martingale sequences" - start at your base, play until you win or bust, that's 1 sequence.

Second: if you have a 12.5% chance of failure (your 1/8th example above) and you make 6 attempts, what is your chance of failing? It's not 1in8 / 6. The ONLY way to accurately gauge it is the BD(tired of typing that).

I don't think that's true.

If I make 6 attempts and each one has a 1/8 probability of failing, the probability that at least 1 of them fails is 1 minus the probability that none of them fail, ie.:

1 - (1 - 1/8)^6
= 1 - 0.875^6
= 1 - 0.4488
= 0.5512

No BD in sight. No factorial, etc.

Thinking a .02% chance (1 in 2000 chance) of failure, and you make 100 runs, and you'll only have a 1 in 200 chances of losing will make you go broke when you lose a hell of a lot more often.

First off, you made a couple of mistakes:

1) I think you meant ".05% chance" (since that is 1 in 2000 : 100 / 0.02 = 5000 and 100 / 0.05 = 2000)

2) Also, did you mean "1 in 20" not "1 in 200" (since 2000/100 = 20)?

Anyway, the truth is that when the number of runs you're making (100) is significantly lower than the odds against failure happening (2000) then the naive guesstimate ("2000/100 = 20, so it's 1 in 20") is pretty accurate, and a little conservative. It tells you your chance of failure is HIGHER than it really is.

In fact when you make 100 runs and each has a 1 in 2000 chance of failure, your overall chance of failure is lower than 1 in 20. It's more like 1 in 20.5 - to be precise, it's 1 in:

1 / (1 - (1 - 1/2000)^100)
= 20.49916711818098

Like you said, if you make 2000 runs with a 1 in 2000 chance of failure per run, the overall chance of failure isn't 1 in 1. The actual chance of failure is lower than the naive runs/odds calculation would lead you to believe. In this case it's 1 in 1.58:

1 / (1 - (1 - 1/2000)^2000)
1.58174652400438

[XinXan]

So after all of this there is still not 100% proof that they scam

[onemorebtc]

So after all of this there is still not 100% proof that they scam

no, but now you know how to make sure not to get scammed from them and you know that they are lying when they say its provably fair -> its not (this lie is a scam in itself - though it COULD be an accident)

[nyktalgia]

I'm fucking pissed off I won 2.5 mil doge over 3 days there and now I just lose lose lose lose in the most retarded ways.  This site is definately a scam, I can't even break even and I've been trying for months.  I've lost over a thousand dollars here easily just trying to break even.  Doesn't seem to matter if I play safe or bet big, either way I lose.

[dooglus]

This site is definately a scam

Maybe take their URL out of your signature then?

[XinXan]

I'm fucking pissed off I won 2.5 mil doge over 3 days there and now I just lose lose lose lose in the most retarded ways.  This site is definately a scam, I can't even break even and I've been trying for months.  I've lost over a thousand dollars here easily just trying to break even.  Doesn't seem to matter if I play safe or bet big, either way I lose.

But you won 2.5 million doge so the casino is not riggef after all if it lets you win that amount, the fact that you lost afterwards doesnt mean shit

[pawel7777]

I'm fucking pissed off I won 2.5 mil doge over 3 days there and now I just lose lose lose lose in the most retarded ways.  This site is definately a scam, I can't even break even and I've been trying for months.  I've lost over a thousand dollars here easily just trying to break even.  Doesn't seem to matter if I play safe or bet big, either way I lose.

But you won 2.5 million doge so the casino is not riggef after all if it lets you win that amount, the fact that you lost afterwards doesnt mean shit

Winning 2.5 mil DOGEs doesn't mean the site is not rigged. It would make sense for such site to let new players win to earn their trust.

This site is definately a scam

Maybe take their URL out of your signature then?

This. Accusing site of being a scam and promoting them in your sig at the same time looks pretty weird.

[XinXan]

I'm fucking pissed off I won 2.5 mil doge over 3 days there and now I just lose lose lose lose in the most retarded ways.  This site is definately a scam, I can't even break even and I've been trying for months.  I've lost over a thousand dollars here easily just trying to break even.  Doesn't seem to matter if I play safe or bet big, either way I lose.

But you won 2.5 million doge so the casino is not riggef after all if it lets you win that amount, the fact that you lost afterwards doesnt mean shit

Winning 2.5 mil DOGEs doesn't mean the site is not rigged. It would make sense for such site to let new players win to earn their trust.

This site is definately a scam

Maybe take their URL out of your signature then?

This. Accusing site of being a scam and promoting them in your sig at the same time looks pretty weird.

2.5 million doge is a really big sum of money already so if in fact they let new players win means that you can create new accounts and win in all of them

[pawel7777]

2.5 million doge is a really big sum of money already so if in fact they let new players win means that you can create new accounts and win in all of them

That's ~1.5 bitcoin. Definitely not a fortune.

No one will deposit all their funds on the site they don't trust. So it's better for the site to let big players win (or not scam them straight away) as there's a big chance they'll be back with more funds.

You won't be creating new account each time unless you know the site is a scam. But if you know that, you won't be playing there at all.

[keepinquiet]

From my personal experience, when I started there I won as expected. Won some, lost some. Went up 10+ BTC, lost it. Went up 15 BTC, lost it, went down 10... went back to +15 or so... and thats when the insane losses started. And me, assuming it was provably fair, deposited more, to try and win back those losses. A few times.

If a site that is programmed to scam you by hiding the provably fair numbers just ripped off your first deposit, you wouldn't come back and refer others to the site.

If you won some, and the site appeared to play fair for a bit, to the point that you believed it WAS fair, it's a lot easier to take the rest of your coins, and probably have you deposit more, too.

All I know, and can state for sure is this:
New player, site seemed legit for a bit.
Then massive, uncontrollable losses happened.
Figure out whats going on, start requesting the hash with every roll.
After winning back 61 BTC by requesting the hash, I'm banned from the site.

Again, no, not any PROOF at all, but thats one hell of an odd coincidence isnt it?

[dooglus]

All I know, and can state for sure is this:
New player, site seemed legit for a bit.
Then massive, uncontrollable losses happened.
Figure out whats going on, start requesting the hash with every roll.
After winning back 61 BTC by requesting the hash, I'm banned from the site.

Again, no, not any PROOF at all, but thats one hell of an odd coincidence isnt it?

Not really. It's pretty common for people to win a lot before losing it all back again.

And the site op claims he banned you because he was sick of your complaining, which is understandable too. I've tried banning people before too because I didn't want to deal with their paranoia. They never go away though until they're ready to. Banning them only makes them more determined to come back.

Not saying that the site didn't scam you, just saying that it's not clear either way.

The most damning evidence for me is that they took the provably fair JD design, deliberately changed it in a very specific way that makes it possible for them to cheat undetectably, and didn't change it back even when people complained about it.

[Mist]

This was a very good read, i figured they had been proven for scamming a long time ago, but it seems we finally have a semi-hard proof. Glad to see Dooglus on this too!

[dooglus]

This was a very good read, i figured they had been proven for scamming a long time ago, but it seems we finally have a semi-hard proof. Glad to see Dooglus on this too!

You know me ... anything to run down the competition...

(read that thread if you didn't already - it's kind of funny)

[mayax]

From my personal experience, when I started there I won as expected. Won some, lost some. Went up 10+ BTC, lost it. Went up 15 BTC, lost it, went down 10... went back to +15 or so... and thats when the insane losses started. And me, assuming it was provably fair, deposited more, to try and win back those losses. A few times.

If a site that is programmed to scam you by hiding the provably fair numbers just ripped off your first deposit, you wouldn't come back and refer others to the site.

If you won some, and the site appeared to play fair for a bit, to the point that you believed it WAS fair, it's a lot easier to take the rest of your coins, and probably have you deposit more, too.

All I know, and can state for sure is this:
New player, site seemed legit for a bit.
Then massive, uncontrollable losses happened.
Figure out whats going on, start requesting the hash with every roll.
After winning back 61 BTC by requesting the hash, I'm banned from the site.

Again, no, not any PROOF at all, but thats one hell of an odd coincidence isnt it?

call the website rep.

[tono]

stupid if you play in 999dice.............
scammer bro u see profite site
profit 2347.54946745 BTC (site)  CRAZY SCAMMMMMM

i am lose 0.5 - 0.7 btc

much RED(LOSE) if you try play in 999dice you stupid

[XinXan]

stupid if you play in 999dice.............
scammer bro u see profite site
profit 2347.54946745 BTC (site)  CRAZY SCAMMMMMM

i am lose 0.5 - 0.7 btc

much RED(LOSE) if you try play in 999dice you stupid

From your post the only conclusion i get is that you are stupid

[ultraneon]

not a fair system

[tono]

how you paid

[keepinquiet]

UN FRIGGING BELIEVABLE.

999dice fixes their shit, and makes an unnecessary change that accomplishes the SAME crap they pulled before.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=971447.new#new