New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess.

[philipma1957]

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144
feb  12th  124 blocks norm is  144
feb  13th  144 blocks norm  is 144

so running 4 day total is  559  4 day normal is 4 x 144 =  576   so for the 4 full days we are (-2.95%)




The new site I post above I like quite a bit.

  I still refer to www.bitcoincharts.com and www.bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

maybe my  -1.11 percent  will be a nice guess I suppose I could give half to seriouscoin

will post again in a day  if you have until the 15th we will get a better idea of what the  numbers are.  As i said the turnover day was the 9th and it was  exactly 20 blocks over normal  some of that high figure belongs to this adjustment so my -2.95%
 
could be   -1.23% could even be -0.5% . With the time difference and the time the adjustment was made and the exact number of blocks from the 164 that count here   the range is -2.95% to +0.25 %   In one case I average in 163 of the split blocks on the 9th  in the other case I average in 1 block from thst day.

this moves the -2.95%   a lot if  you count 163 of those blocks.  or if you count only 1 block fro

m that day the -2.95% is very close to exactly accurate.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>  (+4.24%)   way off but way off for exactly now



Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,340,216,328 (+4.24%)
Adjust time:   After 1359 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):   311,868,296 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> key number shows negative as of now
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:25 (1.4 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.148%) much closer to the new website


Blocks   343378
Total BTC   13.834M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   44389043106 in 1358 blks
 
Network total   329771.107 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.22 / 579 s   



It would be funny if my -1.11% ends up well.  we get to see at least 1 more days info to see if the down trend continues.

[armedmilitia]

+ 2.23 %

is my guess!

Thanks man, less than a quarter of a percent away from my guess 
Just like the guy who bids $1 on the price is right...

[philipma1957]

+ 2.23 %

is my guess!

Thanks man, less than a quarter of a percent away from my guess  
Just like the guy who bids $1 on the price is right...

well it is a bit different .  price is right has 4 people guessing   and over loses.

we have 20 or more guessing and over can win.

so if it is 1.01  and you have 1.2 and no one is closer you win.

a person can be burned  here with  

2.01
2.02----------------this person would be burned
2.03



maybe next contest we figure a little bit different  method    you make a guess of a range.  

   2.00-2.10  
   2.11-2.20
   2.21-2.30

we make a list of ranges from -15.00 to + 15.00       this limits contestants :

  if  we allow .10 as the range    there are 300 ranges of .10 between -15.00 to +15.00
 if we allow  .15 as the range  there are 200 ranges  of .15 between -15.00 to + 15.00
if we allow .20 as the range      there are 150 ranges  of .20 between -15.00 to + 15.00
 if we allow .30 as the range      there are 100 ranges  of .30 between -15.00 to + 15.00

It encourages an early guess  since really high or really low may be bad guesses.

You know a football grid for the superbowl has 100 boxes  .  This is a just woke up and had 2 cups of coffee idea so it looks pretty good to me.

Back to the actual numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.33%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,379,010,867 (+4.33%)
Adjust time:   After 1282 Blocks, About 8.9 days
Hashrate(?):   321,113,649 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:5 (2.0 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

I like your idea of early guess getting more space.  I think first day or two really reward them for such a early guess.  By 1/2 of time over have it maybe 1/4 or even less of the range early guess gets.

On price of BTC past few day's have been good.  I am happy to see a increase.  I did finally get new homes for my S3's.   Also under clocked my SP20's.  I think I am set for a while now.  Did it a little earlier then I planned but decided to get ready a little for summer mining.  Winter I went a lot larger then I care to do during summer time.   

[philipma1957]

I like your idea of early guess getting more space.  I think first day or two really reward them for such a early guess.  By 1/2 of time over have it maybe 1/4 or even less of the range early guess gets.

On price of BTC past few day's have been good.  I am happy to see a increase.  I did finally get new homes for my S3's.   Also under clocked my SP20's.  I think I am set for a while now.  Did it a little earlier then I planned but decided to get ready a little for summer mining.  Winter I went a lot larger then I care to do during summer time.   

yeah I sold a few sp20's off today.  basically to get ready for summer.  meanwhile it is 19f outside my home, but 9 sp20's 1 s-5 and 1 avalon 4.1 will be way over my heat envelope.

 So an early start is okay .

[ivonna]

I am going to be interested to see how the recent ~17%+ increase in the price of bitcoin is going to affect how much new equipment the manufacturers build and how many people bring their miners back online. Although this may affect the following difficulty calculation more then this one.

bitcoinwisdom is now showing an estimated +4.15 change with a 1, 3, and 6 block time of 10, 30.1 and 60 minutes respectively

[philipma1957]

I am going to be interested to see how the recent ~17%+ increase in the price of bitcoin is going to affect how much new equipment the manufacturers build and how many people bring their miners back online. Although this may affect the following difficulty calculation more then this one.

bitcoinwisdom is now showing an estimated +4.15 change with a 1, 3, and 6 block time of 10, 30.1 and 60 minutes respectively

yeah but it is pretty much worthless number under current mining conditions.  that huge piece of hash power  (all s-3's) is around 50ph  and the best explanation I see is owners of s-3's simply turn them on and off based on diff/price numbers.

 really makes for tough guess at diff movement.  you noted price jumped to 250 from 225 and maybe a lot of s-3 owners power back on.  I agree.   that is bound to happen.  but that www.bitcoinwisdom number does not reflect it to well.  not to say they are wrong since they are looking ahead.


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

in a few hours they will give feb 14 block total   this will allow the current standing of diff for the first 720 blocks.    maybe -2 % or -1% .

  then you need to think will price jump from 250 to 275 or drop to 225. all will be a big factor with s-3 owners all over the world.

[ivonna]

I am going to be interested to see how the recent ~17%+ increase in the price of bitcoin is going to affect how much new equipment the manufacturers build and how many people bring their miners back online. Although this may affect the following difficulty calculation more then this one.

bitcoinwisdom is now showing an estimated +4.15 change with a 1, 3, and 6 block time of 10, 30.1 and 60 minutes respectively

yeah but it is pretty much worthless number under current mining conditions.  that huge piece of hash power  (all s-3's) is around 50ph  and the best explanation I see is owners of s-3's simply turn them on and off based on diff/price numbers.

 really makes for tough guess at diff movement.  you noted price jumped to 250 from 225 and maybe a lot of s-3 owners power back on.  I agree.   that is bound to happen.  but that www.bitcoinwisdom number does not reflect it to well.  not to say they are wrong since they are looking ahead.


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

in a few hours they will give feb 14 block total   this will allow the current standing of diff for the first 720 blocks.    maybe -2 % or -1% .

  then you need to think will price jump from 250 to 275 or drop to 225. all will be a big factor with s-3 owners all over the world.

You are right bitcoinwisdom does tend to have what appears to be a very strange prediction at times, however I don't think it is accurate to say it is always wrong, I think they have an algorithm that relies on a certain set of assumptions that are not always correct.

I think a falling price is causing more S3 owners to turn off their machines then a low price. I don't think many owners want to be selling ~$1.25 worth of bitcoin per day per S3 if they were to leave it on, they would probably want to sell $37.5 worth of bitcoin once per month (per S3) as selling that small of amount every day is almost not worth their time (assuming their intention is to sell the entire amount to cover their electric/hosting costs)

[philipma1957]

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144
feb  12th  124 blocks norm is  144
feb  13th  144 blocks norm  is 144
feb  14th   160 blocks norm is  144

so  a running 5 day total is  719  5 day normal is 5 x 144 =  720   so for the % full days we are  719/720 about (-0.14%)




The new site I post above I like quite a bit.

  I still refer to www.bitcoincharts.com and www.bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

very close to even

[suchmoon]

I will be extending the bounty deadline by 12 hours (will update the rules post accordingly). I happen to be in the wrong time zone now and will be off the grid most of Sunday. I won't be able to announce the final list until about 4 AM UTC Monday, so it's only fair to give you guys and gals more time to get in.

As for the rules, sniping, etc - I really really don't want to change anything but can see some benefit in rewarding early birds too. I'll think about it. Maybe we can pick intervals (0.25% perhaps?) and have no 1% rule and no "nearest wins" - you'd have to guess the correct interval, no exceptions. This should be simple enough yet fair. Thanks for the ideas. Keep them coming.

[mavericklm]

+2.69%

[AnswerQuestion]

my guess is -2%

I do like the idea of taking away the 1% rule and then adding in a smaller range that someone would "own". It would probably make it so the bounty would roll over more often which would result in higher interest in these threads

[Ume]

my guess is -2%

I do like the idea of taking away the 1% rule and then adding in a smaller range that someone would "own". It would probably make it so the bounty would roll over more often which would result in higher interest in these threads

Predictionhas been ended i think dude ! The op selected the users who posted in time

[AnswerQuestion]

my guess is -2%

I do like the idea of taking away the 1% rule and then adding in a smaller range that someone would "own". It would probably make it so the bounty would roll over more often which would result in higher interest in these threads

Predictionhas been ended i think dude ! The op selected the users who posted in time

No. The rules state that people can make predictions until Suchmoon has posted a list of who guessed what change ;0

[Argwai96]

If additional entries are still being accepted then I would guess -0.01% 

[rigrenter]

I bet on +1.05 %

[quakefiend420]

I'm going to stick with what I had.  If I'm right, I get a small offset to my lost revenue, if I'm wrong I make more next diff.

[philipma1957]

I will be extending the bounty deadline by 12 hours (will update the rules post accordingly). I happen to be in the wrong time zone now and will be off the grid most of Sunday. I won't be able to announce the final list until about 4 AM UTC Monday, so it's only fair to give you guys and gals more time to get in.

As for the rules, sniping, etc - I really really don't want to change anything but can see some benefit in rewarding early birds too. I'll think about it. Maybe we can pick intervals (0.25% perhaps?) and have no 1% rule and no "nearest wins" - you'd have to guess the correct interval, no exceptions. This should be simple enough yet fair. Thanks for the ideas. Keep them coming.

yeah 0.25%  is 4 per 1%  so -15% to +15%  is 120 ranges  of 0.25%  that is a manageable max of contestants.

we could go tighter     -10% to + 10%   which is 80 ranges 

  Also allows for  a reasonable chance someone picks it.
  Also makes you want to get your pick in early. No one would want to pick   +14.76 to + 15.00    or -15.00 to - 14.76


I am sticking to -1.11% for this one.

[alh]

I'll bet on an increase:

+1.8%

[philipma1957]

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144
feb  12th  124 blocks norm is  144
feb  13th  144 blocks norm  is 144
feb  14th   160 blocks norm is  144
feb  15th   140 blocks norm is   144

so  a running 6 day total is  859

 6 day normal is 6 x 144 =  864   so for the % full days we are  859/864 about (-0.57%)




The new site I post above I like quite a bit.

  I still refer to www.bitcoincharts.com and www.bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 Still very close to even also pretty close to my (-1.11%)