New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess.

[HerbPean]

I am going to be interested to see how the recent ~17%+ increase in the price of bitcoin is going to affect how much new equipment the manufacturers build and how many people bring their miners back online. Although this may affect the following difficulty calculation more then this one.

bitcoinwisdom is now showing an estimated +4.15 change with a 1, 3, and 6 block time of 10, 30.1 and 60 minutes respectively

yeah but it is pretty much worthless number under current mining conditions.  that huge piece of hash power  (all s-3's) is around 50ph  and the best explanation I see is owners of s-3's simply turn them on and off based on diff/price numbers.

 really makes for tough guess at diff movement.  you noted price jumped to 250 from 225 and maybe a lot of s-3 owners power back on.  I agree.   that is bound to happen.  but that www.bitcoinwisdom number does not reflect it to well.  not to say they are wrong since they are looking ahead.


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

in a few hours they will give feb 14 block total   this will allow the current standing of diff for the first 720 blocks.    maybe -2 % or -1% .

  then you need to think will price jump from 250 to 275 or drop to 225. all will be a big factor with s-3 owners all over the world.

You are right bitcoinwisdom does tend to have what appears to be a very strange prediction at times, however I don't think it is accurate to say it is always wrong, I think they have an algorithm that relies on a certain set of assumptions that are not always correct.

I think a falling price is causing more S3 owners to turn off their machines then a low price. I don't think many owners want to be selling ~$1.25 worth of bitcoin per day per S3 if they were to leave it on, they would probably want to sell $37.5 worth of bitcoin once per month (per S3) as selling that small of amount every day is almost not worth their time (assuming their intention is to sell the entire amount to cover their electric/hosting costs)

The estimation is always highly influenced by the previous Diff change (previous 2016 blocks) Meaning that if the previous diff was 10%, the estimation will be way higher even if the generation time is 10 min since the change of diff.

The estimation will be greatly close to the reality 2 or 3 days just before the end of the current diff unless a massive change of Hashrate appears.

[suchmoon]

Ok, this is it:

GermanGiant +3.00%
davejh +0.50%
Ume +6.00%
Kexkey +4.77%
philipma1957 -1.11%
adaseb +8.00%
SimplisticStu +4.55%
geforcelover +4.12%
wpt1wpt1 +3.45%
klondike_bar -4.25%
galdur +5.28%
buyandhold +0.77%
Quickseller -4.80%
jermwerty +8.01%
armedmilitia +2.00%
quakefiend420 +8.41%
thriftshopping +8.52%
HerbPean +4.20%
tsm13 +1.27%
Korbman +5.30%
SunnyIgor +1.50%
edonkey's cat -0.20%
tlhIlwI -2.71%
wunkbone -5.50%
ivonna -3.55%
chaoman +0.00%
A4Tech +5.60%
notlist3d +4.15%
gallery2000 +0.01%
tertius993 +3.22%
tarmi +2.23%
mavericklm +2.69%
AnswerQuestion -2.00%
Argwai96 -0.01%
rigrenter +1.05%
alh +1.80%

Large list, I might have missed something - let me know if you find anything wrong.

my guess is -2%

I do like the idea of taking away the 1% rule and then adding in a smaller range that someone would "own". It would probably make it so the bounty would roll over more often which would result in higher interest in these threads

Predictionhas been ended i think dude ! The op selected the users who posted in time

No. The rules state that people can make predictions until Suchmoon has posted a list of who guessed what change ;0

Yes, everybody is in until I post the list. I also "officially" extended the deadline a few posts ago due to me being offline, but in any case even without the extension I'd have to include anybody until my own post here.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >> (+4.60%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,500,642,856 (+4.60%)
Adjust time:   After 995 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   335,309,058 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   8:30 (4.1 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-0.557%)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  wrong

Blocks   343741
Total BTC   13.844M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   44704280517 in 995 blks     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>       for some reason I thought   the estimate was lower then the current rate.
 
Network total   360719.990 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.80 / 529 s


Someone asked me how I get a number from bitcoincharts.com  

it is easy    44455/44704 =    0.99443    this is the raw number with rounding.

0.99443-1 =  -0.00557      which =  (-0.557%)

this week the large difference is simple bitcoinwisdom is running higher since they factor in  the last diff jump

bitcoincharts is up to date for this adjustment only.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts  

gives 1 day totals in fact bitcoincharts uses them as a source



Feb 9 --- 162 but a lot of this went to last jump


feb 10---142
feb 11---159
feb 12---124
feb 13---144
feb 14---160-----------------------this is pretty high but this day we had the nice price rally
feb 15---142

I do think people watch  the price and turn off or on gear.  World wide there are a lot of S-3's from antminer

If you ever owned them power on and power off is very easy.  I think this explanation is sound on a fiscal level
 and helps to explain the up and down pattern.

Difficulty History

Date                  Difficulty          Change   Hash Rate
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s



We have seen a very small increase over the last 90+ days .

 My guess is that is sales and company farms  of :
Sp20's
S-5's
Avalon 4.1

Which has been offset with complete power down of 1 watt plus gear and

the power on power off  power on of the s-3's world wide causes the seesaw effect..

[tertius993]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-0.557%)

Blocks   343741
Total BTC   13.844M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   44704280517 in 995 blks
 
Network total   360719.990 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.80 / 529 s


Someone asked me how I get a number from bitcoincharts.com  

it is easy    44455/44704 =    0.99443    this is the raw number with rounding.

0.99443-1 =  -0.00557      which =  (-0.557%)

this week the large difference is simple bitcoinwisdom is running higher since they factor in  the last diff jump

bitcoincharts is up to date for this adjustment only.

Err, I think you might need to look at your sums again.

Bitcoincharts estimated next difficulty (44704, in your numbers but now up to 448... ) is greater than the current difficulty (44455) so it can't be predicting a negative increase ...

(Should be 1-0.99443 = 0.00557 =+0.557%)

edit, thinking about it again, I would actually suggest its simpler and more accurate to divide the estimated next difficulty (44704) by the current difficulty:

44704/44455 = 1.0056 = 100.56% of the current difficulty or a 0.56% increase

(more than 1 is an increase, less than one a decrease)

and using the current prediction:

44991/44455 = 1.0121 = 101.21% or a 1.21% increase

[philipma1957]

looks like I dd a brain fart on that.  happens.

the method I did only works when they predict negative.  say 44455xxx now and 44444xxx for the new one. then you do  the new one 44444/44455  = 0.99975 -1 =0.024%


in the current case current is 44455xxx new is 44973xxx  do 44973/44455 = 1.0116 or    + 1.16%   thanks for point it out.  

 for what ever reason I  flipped the numbers and made the error.


If I recall suchmoon is using www.bitcoinwisdom.com


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

he will use the number that shows up here.


Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty           Change    Hash Rate
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s

[tsm13]

The wisdom of crowds, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

so according to the country fair theory of guesses +3.71% will be positive difficulty change or -2.68% for a negative difficult change.

[philipma1957]

The wisdom of crowds, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

so according to the country fair theory of guesses +3.71% will be positive difficulty change or -2.68% for a negative difficult change.

interesting read.


 http://btc.blockr.io/charts  

gives 1 day totals in fact bitcoincharts uses them as a source



Feb 9 --- 162 but a lot of this went to last jump


feb 10---142
feb 11---159
feb 12---124
feb 13---144
feb 14---160-----------------------this is pretty high but this day we had the nice price rally
feb 15---142
feb 16---158

                      7 full days  should be 7 x 144 = 1008  actual is 1029   that is   +2.08%   since part of feb 9 should be included that actual number right now is around

+2.22 %

I would think

tarmi +2.23%
mavericklm +2.69%
or armedmilitia +2.00%

all have the best shot

will post back in about 5 hours to show the feb 17 block total.

[alh]

It seems like you need more inflection, Phillip. Something like calling a horse race.

"It's armedmilitia by a half length rounding the second turn......"

I wish I could do it justice.

All in fun, in case that's not obvious!!!

[philipma1957]

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts  

gives 1 day totals in fact bitcoincharts uses them as a source



Feb 9 --- 162 but a lot of this went to last jump


feb 10---142
feb 11---159
feb 12---124
feb 13---144
feb 14---160-----------------------this is pretty high but this day we had the nice price rally
feb 15---142
feb 16---158
feb 17---149
                      8 full days  should be 8 x 144 = 1152  actual is 1178   that is   +2.225%   since part of feb 9 should be included that actual number right now is around

+2.35 %

I would think

tarmi +2.23%
mavericklm +2.69%
or armedmilitia +2.00%

all have the best shot

will post back in about 5 hours to show the feb 17 block total.

Just added in the feb 17 numbers   and since feb 17 was 149 vs 144 it pushes up just a bit more.

with only 5 days left  getting to negative would mean a lot of low 130 block days need to happen.

this morning we are at ~ 2.38% according to www.bitcoincharts.com

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   344038
Total BTC   13.851M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   45516755690 in 698 blks
 
Network total   321159.564 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.06 / 595 s


455167/444554 = 1.02387- 1 =   2.387%


 this means tarmi is about           0.15% off
 and mavericklm is about            0.31% off
third place armedmilitia is about 0.38% off
fourth place germangiant about  0.62% off

with 698 blocks to go the four of them are entering the last ⅓ of the adjustment and are all within 0.5% of each other !

[HerbPean]

Boom someone just pushed it to 350 Peta (per Bitcoinwisdom)

Classic close to the end of a Diff.

[philipma1957]

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts  

gives 1 day totals in fact bitcoincharts uses them as a source



Feb 9 --- 162 but a lot of this went to last jump


feb 10---142
feb 11---159
feb 12---124
feb 13---144
feb 14---160-----------------------this is pretty high but this day we had the nice price rally
feb 15---142
feb 16---158
feb 17---149
feb 18---161


9 x 144 = 1296   actual is 1339 this is  about  3.31 to 3.35%

looks like            wpt1wpt1 +3.45%     and   tertius993 +3.22%  are close to a dead heat

GermanGiant +3.00%
notlist3d +4.15%
HerbPean +4.20%

all stand a shot

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 shows a surge and is pushing for  (+5.32%)  This needs  all days left to average  over 152 blocks to happen

Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,821,133,047 (+5.32%)
Adjust time:   After 586 Blocks, About 3.9 days
Hashrate(?):   354,653,668 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.9 minutes
Updated:   22:45 (49.0 seconds ago)

[xstr8guy]

Boom someone just pushed it to 350 Peta (per Bitcoinwisdom)

Classic close to the end of a Diff.

Classic variance, more likely.

[Ume]

When the winner will be picked :?

[RoadStress]

I predict +7%!

[Ume]

Last date of this promoe guys ?

[adaseb]

Last date of this promoe guys ?

Don't think its fair for any new predictions since its very easy to guess what the difficulty will be

[SimplisticStu]

Last date of this promoe guys ?

Official deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 15th, 2015 extended to 04:00 (4 AM) UTC February 16th, 2015,

Deadline has passed but you can always guess for fun and guess for real next time around 

[Madern]

My prediction is +4.34

[Quickseller]

I would go for -4.8% this time around.
-snip-

I think it is officially safe to say that I am going to be wrong.

Bitcoinwisdom is showing a 1008 average block time of under 560 seconds (it is probably somewhere between 550 and 555). At 560 seconds, it would be 40 seconds under the target, which would result in a ~6.6% increase, so as of now, the increase should be something more then this. At 550 seconds, the 50 second under target block time would result in a ~8.3% increase, and a 555 second block time would result in a 7.5% increase.

The 1008 block time is likely to decline as the 504 block hash rate is showing above the 1008 hash rate (although some of this *may* be due to variance).

I might speculate that some of the increase is due to the Chinese new year (if bitmain is not shipping out new miners, then the miners that otherwise would have shipped now have ~5 days of mining they would not otherwise have as they are sitting at bitmain mining and are not for sale). Other speculation would be that some manufacturer is testing (or mining on their own) new chips that are vastly more efficient then what is currently available.

My "bragging rights" new guess would be somewhere in the +8% range

[philipma1957]

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts  

gives 1 day totals in fact bitcoincharts uses them as a source



Feb 9 --- 162 but a lot of this went to last jump


feb 10---142
feb 11---159
feb 12---124
feb 13---144
feb 14---160-----------------------this is pretty high but this day we had the nice price rally
feb 15---142
feb 16---158
feb 17---149
feb 18---161
feb 19---168-----------------------this is 16.67% higher then the 144 normal

10 x 144 = 1440   actual is 1507  this is  about  4.65 %    but does not include some blocks made on feb 9th and on feb 20th I will bump the 4.65% real time to 4.75%  with 420 blocks left.


right now http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  is at 3.29% but I am almost certain that does not reflect the 168 block day we just had.

Blocks   344316
Total BTC   13.858M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   45920073974 in 420 blks

_____________________________________________________________________________
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (+5.68%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,979,975,302 (+5.68%)
Adjust time:   After 420 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   353,959,676 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.5 minutes
Updated:   23:35 (1.3 minutes ago)
Network total   334533.398 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.31 / 571 s


I would say  above 7% is not possible since not enough blocks are left to pull us up from the real number of 4.65 - 4.75%


the next 420 blocks would need to be done really fast to pull us up to 7%  .

 I think 2 days of 168 blocks and a half day of 84 blocks would be a 16.67% over      420 blocks and since we are 4.75% over at 1596 .

we would settle at 7.15% .

We have not done 168 + 168 + 168 + 84  in 3.5 days  for months.

Does look like a big deployment has happened this jump.