POLL: Are you still buying mining equipment?

[SgtSpike]

Just curious.  So answer the poll already!

[bulanula]

INVESTING is the best choice right now. Just buy bitcoins with as much cash as you have !

[Jaime Frontero]

right now i'm tweaking all my miners - latest miner versions, overclocking, case cooling, etc.  i've boosted my Mh/sec rate almost 20% since the difficulty rise - practically as good as getting a new miner.

so no hardware right now.  we'll see how difficulty goes.

and frankly, given the speed at which things move, i'm going to wait a couple weeks to see what happens on the FPGA front.  my miners have paid for themselves many times over, so i can afford to look at re-investing if the FPGA possibilities are good.

i guess my answer isn't in your poll...

[Iceredwing]

No would be my answer.

[epi 1:10,000]

No

[SgtSpike]

Yeesh - almost half of all respondents indicated that they will still be adding more hashing power in the coming weeks!  I was hoping for numbers less than that, but now I fully expect difficulty to continue rising as quickly as it has in the last few weeks.

[AtlasONo]

Just bought a few bits but I'm done for now

[rezin777]

I remember seeing a post where someone was saying the difficulty would drop and it was naive to think it would exponentially increase all the time. The other guy said once you hit that point of no return it's pretty much done... I think I agree we are either near or at that point.  This increase in difficulty won't stop until there is nearly no profit for anyone that isn't mining at the highest efficiency. Likely a commercial venture of sort once the word gets out a bit more. 

Any media exposure and we can pretty much say bye bye to mining profits for the masses?

It's apparent that mining will trend toward small profit. Any undertaking that has massive profit will grow until the profit is reduced (everyone tries to grab that profit). Serious miners should understand this and practice high efficiency.

[BitcoinRigs.com]

Lots of people are still buying. We can't buy enough video cards to keep up with demand!

[gusti]

yes, why not ?

[Littleshop]

yes, why not ?

Because difficulty going up without BTC price going up will cause the payback to be less then the price of the equipment.  Our next difficulty is on track to be more then a 50% increase again and it is happening sooner then 10 days.  If you repeat that just four more times mining is not very profitable. 

I just got my last 6990 card.  It should make some acceptable money in the next month.   After that profit is unlikely.  I will turn my equipment off a little before it becomes unprofitable due resale value of the equipment. 

[gusti]

yes, why not ?

Because difficulty going up without BTC price going up will cause the payback to be less then the price of the equipment.  Our next difficulty is on track to be more then a 50% increase again and it is happening sooner then 10 days.  If you repeat that just four more times mining is not very profitable. 

I just got my last 6990 card.  It should make some acceptable money in the next month.   After that profit is unlikely.  I will turn my equipment off a little before it becomes unprofitable due resale value of the equipment. 

Please define what is "profitable". Or what is a good ROI for a business. 20% a year ?  30% ? 60% ?      

[acamus]

"Because difficulty going up without BTC price going up will cause the payback to be less then the price of the equipment. " I plan to track the rate of difficulty increase vs bitcoin value in the coming months, probably until august before buying anything. There is no guarantee of profit or loss but there should be some trending going on. Hopefully I can use the money to finish my PhD in mathematical finance.

[JJG]

yes, why not ?

Because difficulty going up without BTC price going up will cause the payback to be less then the price of the equipment.  Our next difficulty is on track to be more then a 50% increase again and it is happening sooner then 10 days.  If you repeat that just four more times mining is not very profitable. 

I just got my last 6990 card.  It should make some acceptable money in the next month.   After that profit is unlikely.  I will turn my equipment off a little before it becomes unprofitable due resale value of the equipment. 

Please define what is "profitable". Or what is a good ROI for a business. 20% a year ?  30% ? 60% ?      

Here's the thing:

Difficulty only needs to make a few more big jumps before your return starts to get awfully close to the cost of mining (equipment depreciation + electricity costs). Eventually, you'll be up against the flat-rate/free electricity crowd.

There will probably be marginal profitability for most for quite some time, but these margins will be thin and fluctuate heavily with the exchange rates.... UNLESS you're convinced that BTC value will just continue to go up.

However, if BTC just keeps going up then mining is not where you should be putting your money. Buying BTC directly will yield much larger profits given the same investment, or alternatively will yield the same profits with less investment.

For the record, I don't believe BTC value will continue to rise as it has. I do believe difficulty will continue increasing until marginal profits are minimal, however.

[BurtW]

Before you answer the poll here is something to think about.  I believe these numbers are correct:

Code:

             Difficulty     Average to win  Rise from previous
Previous:    157,416.40     1.13 Ghashes/s	
Current:     244,112.48     1.75 Ghashes/s	55.07%
Next (est):  393,849.00     2.82 Ghashes/s	61.34%

If you are interested I got my raw historical data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash and the estimate next difficulty here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ (at the top of the page - will happen in 789 more blocks as of the time of this post)

[BurtW]

This is the way I am trying to answer this question for myself:

Todays network hash rate is estimated at about 3.5 Thashs/s.  So if I build a hot 3.5 Ghashs/s system that would be exacly 0.1% of the network.  Since the entire system produces about $50,000 per day at the current price of $7 per BTC my share should average out to about $50 per day.

Assuming that the average rate of growth in the value of the BTC matches the average rate of growth of the network then I will continue to average about $50 per day until 2013.

$50 per day is about $18,000 per year.  Can I build a 3.5 Ghash/s system for less than $18,000?  Yes.  If the above assumption holds is it worth doing?  Yes.  Will the above growth rate assumption hold.  That is the real question here.

[SgtSpike]

This is the way I am trying to answer this question for myself:

Todays network hash rate is estimated at about 3.5 Thashs/s.  So if I build a hot 3.5 Ghashs/s system that would be exacly 0.1% of the network.  Since the entire system produces about $50,000 per day at the current price of $7 per BTC my share should average out to about $50 per day.

Assuming that the average rate of growth in the value of the BTC matches the average rate of growth of the network then I will continue to average about $50 per day until 2013.

$50 per day is about $18,000 per year.  Can I build a 3.5 Ghash/s system for less than $18,000?  Yes.  If the above assumption holds is it worth doing?  Yes.  Will the above growth rate assumption hold.  That is the real question here.

Bitcoin value has remained stagnate for the past 11 days, while difficulty has almost doubled in the same time period.  Wishful thinking doesn't make it happen.

There has to be a reason for a rally - more investors come in looking for bitcoins, so they infuse cash into the market.  There doesn't have to be a reason for difficulty to increase - it just happens, whether there is growth in the value of BTC or not.  The reason for this is because it is still profitable to mine, even with the lower value/generation ratio.  People will continue purchasing mining equipment until the revenue is very close to the expense of electricity.  Prepare to make $2-$3/day with that same 3.5ghps in the not-so-distant future.

[gusti]

yes, why not ?

Because difficulty going up without BTC price going up will cause the payback to be less then the price of the equipment.  Our next difficulty is on track to be more then a 50% increase again and it is happening sooner then 10 days.  If you repeat that just four more times mining is not very profitable. 

I just got my last 6990 card.  It should make some acceptable money in the next month.   After that profit is unlikely.  I will turn my equipment off a little before it becomes unprofitable due resale value of the equipment. 

Please define what is "profitable". Or what is a good ROI for a business. 20% a year ?  30% ? 60% ?      

Here's the thing:

Difficulty only needs to make a few more big jumps before your return starts to get awfully close to the cost of mining (equipment depreciation + electricity costs). Eventually, you'll be up against the flat-rate/free electricity crowd.

There will probably be marginal profitability for most for quite some time, but these margins will be thin and fluctuate heavily with the exchange rates.... UNLESS you're convinced that BTC value will just continue to go up.

However, if BTC just keeps going up then mining is not where you should be putting your money. Buying BTC directly will yield much larger profits given the same investment, or alternatively will yield the same profits with less investment.

For the record, I don't believe BTC value will continue to rise as it has. I do believe difficulty will continue increasing until marginal profits are minimal, however.

Too many assumptions, few facts. If you believe that buying btc directly is the best thing to do, pls sell me at $1.32, which is the actual cost for me to mine each one.   

[fergalish]

INVESTING is the best choice right now. Just buy bitcoins with as much cash as you have !

How about we *don't* turn bitcoin into a ponzi scheme.  Pleeeeeeease?

[oVPN]

i just bought Asus EAH5850 (725MHz gpu / 1000MHz mem) clocked to 900/900. without clocking says 260M Hash/sec, but with clocking up to 350M ! temp nice at 65°C for 5 days with >95% activity now