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Author Topic: look at all that volatility...  (Read 1209 times)
old_engineer
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July 25, 2012, 03:28:40 AM
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After sitting out about 6 months now, watching these $1+daily swings are making me want to get back in the game .  Also, the shelf full of fine scotch funded from my prior "work" has thinned dramatically, and reinforcements will soon be needed. Smiley

My totally uneducated opinion is:
* halving of the block reward will increase future price
* miners cashing out at the highest value since September 2011, 60-80% higher than the $5 stable zone, are dropping the price
* the adoption of FPGAs will change the mining demographic, favoring those that plunked down a lot of cash and will want to sell their mined coins ASAP to defray risks, dropping the price
* the ever-present smattering of big-money speculators buying in, and selling at random, make for big market moves at random times

Summed together, I have no idea where the price is going, but my my my, that volatility looks delectable.  I used to be more ideologically motivated about supporting bitcoin, but this time, I think it'll be about making a buck while reducing volatility.

PS: all the triangle charting posts still look completely silly
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adamstgBit
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July 25, 2012, 03:31:45 AM
 #2

After sitting out about 6 months now, watching these $1+daily swings are making me want to get back in the game .  Also, the shelf full of fine scotch funded from my prior "work" has thinned dramatically, and reinforcements will soon be needed. Smiley

My totally uneducated opinion is:
* halving of the block reward will increase future price
* miners cashing out at the highest value since September 2011, 60-80% higher than the $5 stable zone, are dropping the price
* the adoption of FPGAs will change the mining demographic, favoring those that plunked down a lot of cash and will want to sell their mined coins ASAP to defray risks, dropping the price
* the ever-present smattering of big-money speculators buying in, and selling at random, make for big market moves at random times

Summed together, I have no idea where the price is going, but my my my, that volatility looks delectable.  I used to be more ideologically motivated about supporting bitcoin, but this time, I think it'll be about making a buck while reducing volatility.

PS: all the triangle charting posts still look completely silly

Just put your bitcoins in pirates bank and enjoy an easy 7% weekly... lol

nimda
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July 25, 2012, 04:34:04 AM
 #3

Quote
pirate
inb4 shitstorm

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
phorensic
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July 25, 2012, 04:55:29 AM
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You seriously only bought (nice) scotch with your profits so far?  Jeez.  "First world problems" as my brother likes to say, lol!
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July 25, 2012, 05:44:43 AM
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lol

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
cheat_2_win
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July 25, 2012, 06:10:07 AM
 #6

After sitting out about 6 months now, watching these $1+daily swings are making me want to get back in the game .  Also, the shelf full of fine scotch funded from my prior "work" has thinned dramatically, and reinforcements will soon be needed. Smiley

My totally uneducated opinion is:
* halving of the block reward will increase future price
* miners cashing out at the highest value since September 2011, 60-80% higher than the $5 stable zone, are dropping the price
* the adoption of FPGAs will change the mining demographic, favoring those that plunked down a lot of cash and will want to sell their mined coins ASAP to defray risks, dropping the price
* the ever-present smattering of big-money speculators buying in, and selling at random, make for big market moves at random times

Summed together, I have no idea where the price is going, but my my my, that volatility looks delectable.  I used to be more ideologically motivated about supporting bitcoin, but this time, I think it'll be about making a buck while reducing volatility.

PS: all the triangle charting posts still look completely silly

It has been calm since last couple of days. Might it be the calm before the storm?
old_engineer
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July 25, 2012, 11:40:19 PM
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You seriously only bought (nice) scotch with your profits so far?  Jeez.  "First world problems" as my brother likes to say, lol!
Yep, I spent my profits on fine drink and women; the rest I just wasted. Smiley  Twice I spent >$1000 at Bevmo - those were fun trips. Also hosted several dinner parties, too, feeding 20+ people each time with enormous primal cuts of meat (usually full 13-15 lb briskets), while people helped themselves to a cabinet full of liquor.  Good times, and bitcoin was mentioned many times - good advertising, eh?  There's no way I could have drunk all of those bottles myself, reinforcements were needed. Seriously, I don't think there's anything more important in life than to, y'know, live a little.  Learned that bit of wisdom in Africa, actually: death might come at any time, don't save all your money, spend some of it, too, and enjoy life.</offtopic>

So, it looks like Mtgox is still the only real game in town, so I'm transferring some USD to mtgox, will probably put some orders in the 7.7-7.9 range.  No real rush to jump in the fray; I'll see if I can catch a dump in the next week or two and resell at ~8.5
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July 26, 2012, 11:50:46 AM
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Yep, I spent my profits on fine drink and women; the rest I just wasted. Twice I spent >$1000 at Bevmo - those were fun trips. Also hosted several dinner parties, too, feeding 20+ people each time with enormous primal cuts of meat (usually full 13-15 lb briskets), while people helped themselves to a cabinet full of liquor.  Good times, and bitcoin was mentioned many times - good advertising, eh?  There's no way I could have drunk all of those bottles myself, reinforcements were needed. Seriously, I don't think there's anything more important in life than to, y'know, live a little.  Learned that bit of wisdom in Africa, actually: death might come at any time, don't save all your money, spend some of it, too, and enjoy life.


I like you, your stories, and your style. Welcome back to Crazyland.
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