After sitting out about 6 months now, watching these $1+daily swings are making me want to get back in the game . Also, the shelf full of fine scotch funded from my prior "work" has thinned dramatically, and reinforcements will soon be needed.
My totally uneducated opinion is:
* halving of the block reward will increase future price
* miners cashing out at the highest value since September 2011, 60-80% higher than the $5 stable zone, are dropping the price
* the adoption of FPGAs will change the mining demographic, favoring those that plunked down a lot of cash and will want to sell their mined coins ASAP to defray risks, dropping the price
* the ever-present smattering of big-money speculators buying in, and selling at random, make for big market moves at random times
Summed together, I have no idea where the price is going, but my my my, that volatility looks delectable. I used to be more ideologically motivated about supporting bitcoin, but this time, I think it'll be about making a buck while reducing volatility.
PS: all the triangle charting posts still look completely silly