Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2016, 09:56:41 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Difficulty Projections; Data on Bitcoin  (Read 1831 times)
cunicula
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756


Stack-overflow Guru


View Profile WWW
May 23, 2011, 06:15:27 PM
 #1

Hi all,

I would like to contribute by projecting difficulty increases using a vector autoregression. This is just a technique which attempts to use interrelated past movements in time series such as difficulty, exchange rates, trade volumes and prices of hardware to predict future movements in these series. In math terms:

Diff[t+n] = fn(Diff[t-1,...,t-30],ExRate[t-1,...,t-30],TradeVolume[t-1,...,t-30], whatever other variables are available)
....
Diff[t] = f1(Diff[t-1,...,t-30],ExRate[t-1,...,t-30],TradeVolume[t-1,...,t-30], whatever other variables are available)

Where f1 is the difficulty projection for today, and fn is the projection n days in the future.

Are the following daily time-series for bitcoin available in excel or .csv format? (perhaps each day for the last six months?)

1) Mt. Gox Exchange Rate
2) Mt. Gox Trade Volumes
3) Difficulty
Less Essential, but useful:
4) Hashing Power per $ of hardware
5) Hashing Power per Joule
6) Average Bid-Ask Spread on Mt. Gox

If someone can send a link to the data, I will run the regressions and post the difficulty projections here.
If desired, someone who can code (not me) could automate these regressions so we can get up real-time projections via
a website.

▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
        AltCoinInternalExperts                Get Your Altcoin Promoted On Social Media       
▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔
1481061401
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061401

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061401
Reply with quote  #2

1481061401
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481061401
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061401

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061401
Reply with quote  #2

1481061401
Report to moderator
1481061401
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061401

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061401
Reply with quote  #2

1481061401
Report to moderator
1481061401
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061401

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061401
Reply with quote  #2

1481061401
Report to moderator
Vandroiy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036


View Profile
May 23, 2011, 11:34:45 PM
 #2

This method of projection might face a problematic truth:

A trend is a trend until it stops.

Just saying, external factors dominate Bitcoin at the moment. An analysis that will return some exponential uptrend... you don't need a load of numerics to retrieve that.
cunicula
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756


Stack-overflow Guru


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2011, 03:34:46 AM
 #3

Of Course, there would be completely unanticipated changes. However, the perfect is the enemy of the good.
The method would yield a best prediction of future trends given past ones-nothing more.

I would also aggregate other information into the formula like data on searches from google trends.






▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
        AltCoinInternalExperts                Get Your Altcoin Promoted On Social Media       
▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!