Bitcoin Forum
June 26, 2019, 05:10:56 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Difficulty Projections; Data on Bitcoin  (Read 1969 times)
cunicula
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036
Merit: 1003



View Profile
May 23, 2011, 06:15:27 PM
 #1

Hi all,

I would like to contribute by projecting difficulty increases using a vector autoregression. This is just a technique which attempts to use interrelated past movements in time series such as difficulty, exchange rates, trade volumes and prices of hardware to predict future movements in these series. In math terms:

Diff[t+n] = fn(Diff[t-1,...,t-30],ExRate[t-1,...,t-30],TradeVolume[t-1,...,t-30], whatever other variables are available)
....
Diff[t] = f1(Diff[t-1,...,t-30],ExRate[t-1,...,t-30],TradeVolume[t-1,...,t-30], whatever other variables are available)

Where f1 is the difficulty projection for today, and fn is the projection n days in the future.

Are the following daily time-series for bitcoin available in excel or .csv format? (perhaps each day for the last six months?)

1) Mt. Gox Exchange Rate
2) Mt. Gox Trade Volumes
3) Difficulty
Less Essential, but useful:
4) Hashing Power per $ of hardware
5) Hashing Power per Joule
6) Average Bid-Ask Spread on Mt. Gox

If someone can send a link to the data, I will run the regressions and post the difficulty projections here.
If desired, someone who can code (not me) could automate these regressions so we can get up real-time projections via
a website.

yobit.net is banned from signatures
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator

0% MINING FEES FOR THE NEXT MONTH. GET PAID IN BTC, ETH, XMR or RVN.

www.cudominer.com Learn More
Easily run CudoOS from a USB flash drive.
Designed for rigs. Manage your mining remotely from Cudo Console.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator
1561569056
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561569056

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561569056
Reply with quote  #2

1561569056
Report to moderator
Vandroiy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 23, 2011, 11:34:45 PM
 #2

This method of projection might face a problematic truth:

A trend is a trend until it stops.

Just saying, external factors dominate Bitcoin at the moment. An analysis that will return some exponential uptrend... you don't need a load of numerics to retrieve that.
cunicula
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036
Merit: 1003



View Profile
May 24, 2011, 03:34:46 AM
 #3

Of Course, there would be completely unanticipated changes. However, the perfect is the enemy of the good.
The method would yield a best prediction of future trends given past ones-nothing more.

I would also aggregate other information into the formula like data on searches from google trends.






yobit.net is banned from signatures
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!