✪ E-SPORTS PICKS : CSGO/LoL : 420 WINS - 69 LOSSES : MIDDLEMAN SERVICES

[michinzx]

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match.  Never watched a CSGO match before.  It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams.  Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though.  I'm asking about handicapping.  For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253.  Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time.  I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

[CryForMeSky]

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match.  Never watched a CSGO match before.  It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams.  Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though.  I'm asking about handicapping.  For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253.  Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time.  I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

Well it looks like VP is crushing it, so good work.

Those calculations are needed to make profit long-term, because of the fact that on a lot of these heavy favorites you are laying big odds. 

[michinzx]

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match.  Never watched a CSGO match before.  It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams.  Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though.  I'm asking about handicapping.  For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253.  Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time.  I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

Well it looks like VP is crushing it, so good work.

Those calculations are needed to make profit long-term, because of the fact that on a lot of these heavy favorites you are laying big odds.  

im aware that those calculations are necessary, but imo there are way too many variables that come into play that are completely unpredictable (ddos), and I do not have the time for that. even now I'm watching these games on my second monitor and reading a pdf of a textbook for an exam I have tomorrow.

also 12-3 CT half on nuke can be considered normal, the map is insanely CT sided. I wouldnt be surprised if Titan manage a small comeback, but I expect VP to take the match.

[michinzx]

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

[CryForMeSky]

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more?  Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall?  Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

[michinzx]

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more?  Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall?  Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

[michinzx]

I'd advise a small bet on BackFire, I believe the odds are a tad skewed from the misinformation and being a bo1 on d2, I'd put the match at a more 40-60 or 45-55 favoring Fenix.

also contemplating making a steam group so people may discuss this stuff and what not as this thread is picking up a bit. feedback appreciated.

[CryForMeSky]

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more?  Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall?  Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

I only bet on Nitro, so I assume it wouldn't be smart to bet on the match line since if there is only one game in the match it'll prob get scratched.

Looks like BF is still listed as almost a 2:1 underdog, if you think that the map change evens up the match a little bit, I guess it would make sense to bet on them and take the odds.  I also see there is a 3.5 line, so if you think the map switch means that it's very likely to be a very close match (from watching the last match I'm guessing all of them are first-to-16?), that bet might have some value.  

[michinzx]

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more?  Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall?  Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

I only bet on Nitro, so I assume it wouldn't be smart to bet on the match line since if there is only one game in the match it'll prob get scratched.

Looks like BF is still listed as almost a 2:1 underdog, if you think that the map change evens up the match a little bit, I guess it would make sense to bet on them and take the odds.  I also see there is a 3.5 line, so if you think the map switch means that it's very likely to be a very close match (from watching the last match I'm guessing all of them are first-to-16?), that bet might have some value.  

probably wont get cancelled, as it was already set to be a bo1 on dust 2, but the wrong information was displayed on lounge and hltv (there was no switch). And i agree on the underdog bet here, it also seems that one of the members for FF did not play with the team the last 2 matches, which could mean communication is potentially a bit off, in addition to dust 2 historically not being a strong map for Fenix.

[michinzx]

Bet for now, might change based on how Elevate performs vs SKDC. Im expecting Elevate to take both their matches tonight.

[michinzx]

[michinzx]

[michinzx]

small bet on (F.Sid3) vs NiP, consolidation match for lower bracket, neither teams will probably care about the outcome.

[nikona]

small bet on (F.Sid3) vs NiP, consolidation match for lower bracket, neither teams will probably care about the outcome.

Yeah I think it wont be a interesting game to bet on. Not a lot of people care about the outcome of the game. NiP also had lost to the other teams in the lower league last month and aren't upto much good these past few weeks.

[michinzx]

also, with katowice coming up shortly, id advise everyone to get their hands on their betting skins (for lounge) for the event soon.

[Subzero0101]

Piter vs Mouz?   

[michinzx]

Piter vs Mouz?  

mouz just lost a player and piter has talented players, and with the number of bets that came up I dont want to put the rest of my bankroll on bets in the case that everything goes wrong with all of these factors, its a skip for me. however, id put it at 65-35 60-40 in favor of mouz depending on map picks.

note: volgare v myxmg was cancelled, so I put a small bet on mouz.

[CryForMeSky]

These skins that you are betting, do people get them (originally) through game play or do they buy them on steam?  How would you cash them out?

[michinzx]

These skins that you are betting, do people get them (originally) through game play or do they buy them on steam?  How would you cash them out?

Too much to explain about weapon drops and cases, but I started out beting again a week before this thread was made with an ak red laminate (~5 usd) and worked it up to whatever you see me update with. I believe I bought that item around a year ago from the steam market.

[michinzx]

also, there is speculation of Ignite cheating, I just remembered this and realized that I shouldve skipped. also, the prize pool for RGN is small, and with the odds as they are, a throw may be possible (if they really cheat they wont give 2 shits about throwing). If you havent bet yet, skip.