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Author Topic: [DONE] Selling Bitcoinica's debt. 35 btc loan.  (Read 1809 times)
kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 05:39:05 PM
 #1

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.


New terms:
25 btc loan.
75% garenteed payback by christmas(18,75 btc).
full 40 btc repayment when/if bitcoinica pays me back.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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Raoul Duke
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July 28, 2012, 05:48:53 PM
 #2

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue

kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 05:53:26 PM
 #3

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
Raoul Duke
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July 28, 2012, 05:59:52 PM
 #4

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.

nimda
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July 28, 2012, 06:05:17 PM
 #5

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 06:17:04 PM
 #6

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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July 28, 2012, 07:12:23 PM
 #7

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 07:16:34 PM
 #8

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.
yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
nimda
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July 28, 2012, 07:39:11 PM
 #9

hi! bitcoinica still owes my 40 btc.
i would like to take a 35 btc loan, and return 40 btc if/when bitcoinica pays back my 40 btc.
i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back.

Maybe Zhou Tong or the Bitcoin Consultancy will loan you the 35 BTC, because that's an awfully bad deal for anyone else lol

Good luck Tongue
how low do you think i should set the price before someone makes a offer? 30btc? 20btc?
should i provide 50% back guarantee by christmas?

None of that will solve the "i will return nothing before bitcoinica pays me back." problem, because the most certain is that you won't get a dime back.
Even if you guarantee 50% back by Christmas, they will still lose.
i know, but i though someone might be willingly to take that risk...

i would take the offer of loan 30btc payback 40btc, and 50% (15btc) by christmas, if i had btc enough, and the loan taker was a reputable forum member.

Basically, you're offering gambling on a Bitcoinica payback. The problem is, you have the wrong odds. 35/40 is 87.5% Roll Eyes
Personally I think Bitcoinica has a 10% chance of paying back, so I'd buy your debt for less than 4 BTC. Not 35.
i think there is about 30-40% chance they will payback, but i kind of need the money now, thats why i tried to sell their debt.
You value their debt too high then. You'll find very few people who think that Bitcoinica has a 40% chance of paying back, and even if that is the case, the debt is worth no more than 16 BTC.
yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.
Well...
60% of the time, the loaner would get 15 BTC back on their 30 BTC loan. That's -15 BTC. * 60% = -9.
40% of the time, the loaner would get 40 BTC back on their 30 BTC loan. That's 10 BTC. * 40% = 4.
Add them up, and on average, over an infinite number of universes, 40% of which Bitcoinica paid back their customers in full, the loaner would lose 5 BTC.

This is with the IMO very optimistic 40% odds.

For anyone considering this, if I thought Bitcoinica had X% chance of paying back, and the price of the debt was Y, I would not buy 40 BTC of debt with 15 BTC guaranteed payback if
X*(40 - Y) + (1 - X) * (-Y + 15) <= 0
So my 10% odds comes out to 17.5 as the maximum I'd be willing to pay.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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July 28, 2012, 07:53:16 PM
 #10

yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.

You got your math wrong Smiley If there is a 40% chance that the 40 BTC are sent back, and a 60% chance that they are not (meaning the lender will receive only 15 BTC), then the expected value is 40*0.4+15*0.6=25. So it would be a bad operation to give you 30 BTC for this.

If P is the probability of Bitcoinica money being paid back (between 0, default, and 1, certainty), then people should buy this option for no more than 80*P/(P+1). So, if lenders think that there is a 40% chance that Bitcoinica pays back, they should not pay more than 22.85714286 BTC in any case. And even that would mean a 0% loan for many months in the "mean" case.

With a 10% chance of payback, the maximum that a lender should lend is 7,27272727 BTC.

nimda
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July 28, 2012, 08:04:45 PM
 #11

yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.

You got your math wrong Smiley If there is a 40% chance that the 40 BTC are sent back, and a 60% chance that they are not (meaning the lender will receive only 15 BTC), then the expected value is 40*0.4+15*0.6=25. So it would be a bad operation to give you 30 BTC for this.

If P is the probability of Bitcoinica money being paid back (between 0, default, and 1, certainty), then people should buy this option for no more than 80*P/(P+1). So, if lenders think that there is a 40% chance that Bitcoinica pays back, they should not pay more than 22.85714286 BTC in any case. And even that would mean a 0% loan for many months in the "mean" case.

With a 10% chance of payback, the maximum that a lender should lend is 7,27272727 BTC.
We came to the same conclusions, just phrased differently (e.g. I said "lose 5" you said "EV of 25"), except for that last bit. The maximum the lender should lend is 17.5 BTC. You forgot the 15 BTC guarantee.
.1 * 40 + .9 * 15 = 17.5
Obviously, the lender is also losing time value and is the one running the risks. The factor of most importance, in any case, is how much the lender trusts kokjo and Bitcoinica to keep their words.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 08:08:12 PM
 #12

new terms:
25 btc loan.
75% garenteed payback by christmas(18,75 btc).
full 40 btc repayment when/if bitcoinica pays me back.


the math are:
chance*(debt-loan)+(1-chance)*(-loan+payback*loan)

so on a 30% chance that bitcoinica will payback, lender wins.

Fair?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
kokjo
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July 28, 2012, 08:12:24 PM
 #13

yes but the 50% back doubles that, so 32btc, if you thrust me 100% that im keeping my word.

You got your math wrong Smiley If there is a 40% chance that the 40 BTC are sent back, and a 60% chance that they are not (meaning the lender will receive only 15 BTC), then the expected value is 40*0.4+15*0.6=25. So it would be a bad operation to give you 30 BTC for this.

If P is the probability of Bitcoinica money being paid back (between 0, default, and 1, certainty), then people should buy this option for no more than 80*P/(P+1). So, if lenders think that there is a 40% chance that Bitcoinica pays back, they should not pay more than 22.85714286 BTC in any case. And even that would mean a 0% loan for many months in the "mean" case.

With a 10% chance of payback, the maximum that a lender should lend is 7,27272727 BTC.
We came to the same conclusions, just phrased differently (e.g. I said "lose 5" you said "EV of 25"), except for that last bit. The maximum the lender should lend is 17.5 BTC. You forgot the 15 BTC guarantee.
.1 * 40 + .9 * 15 = 17.5
Obviously, the lender is also losing time value and is the one running the risks. The factor of most importance, in any case, is how much the lender trusts kokjo and Bitcoinica to keep their words.
its not a 15btc back guarantee, its a 50% back guarantee. i understand the math now.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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July 28, 2012, 08:17:47 PM
 #14

new terms:
25 btc loan.
75% garenteed payback by christmas(18,75 btc).
full 40 btc repayment when/if bitcoinica pays me back.


the math are:
chance*(debt-loan)+(1-chance)*(-loan+payback*loan)

so on a 30% chance that bitcoinica will payback, lender wins.

Fair?
if by "payback" you mean "guaranteed fraction" then the math is correct. However I'm not sure I'd agree that the lender wins. Christmas is a long time away, and you have to take the time value of money into account. Here in the BTC Wild Wild West, 1% weekly is very common. This significantly devalues the "Christmas" part.
its not a 15btc back guarantee, its a 50% back guarantee.
OIC

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
kokjo
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July 29, 2012, 08:58:09 AM
 #15

BUMP! edited OP! still looking for lender.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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July 29, 2012, 12:24:14 PM
 #16

If Bitcoinica does part-payback but not 100% payback, does the part-payback go to the lender or to you?

kokjo
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July 29, 2012, 01:09:22 PM
 #17

If Bitcoinica does part-payback but not 100% payback, does the part-payback go to the lender or to you?
to the lender of course. Anything i get from bitcoinica, related to my claim, will go to the lender.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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July 29, 2012, 01:59:15 PM
 #18

If Bitcoinica does part-payback but not 100% payback, does the part-payback go to the lender or to you?
to the lender of course. Anything i get from bitcoinica, related to my claim, will go to the lender.

Would they get the partial payback and the 18.75?

kokjo
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July 29, 2012, 02:24:08 PM
 #19

If Bitcoinica does part-payback but not 100% payback, does the part-payback go to the lender or to you?
to the lender of course. Anything i get from bitcoinica, related to my claim, will go to the lender.

Would they get the partial payback and the 18.75?
yes but, only up to 40 btc

example 1:
in december i payback 18.75 btc.
in januar i gets paybacked my 40 btc
i then payback 40-18.75 btc = 21.25btc.

example 2:
in december i payback 18.75 btc.
in januar i gets paybacked a part of my 40 btc, 20 btc
i then payback 20 btc, and have a rest debt of 1.25btc, in case bitcoinica pays me back the other 20btc(or just 1,25btc)


in any case i will maximally only payback 40 btc, but 75% of the loan will be payed back.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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July 29, 2012, 02:38:26 PM
 #20

25 BTC Loan
40 BTC Payback

PayBack Schedule
December 1st, 2012 18.75

If Bitcoinica pays back before Dec 1st 2012 PayBack will be 40BTC
If Bitcoinica pays back after Dec 1 st 2012 payback will be 21.25  (ie. 40BTC - 18.75 Paid on Dec. 1st 2012.)

Send me an address.
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