dree12
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029


July 28, 2012, 09:12:01 PM 

Just wanted to share this chart I made. The index is computed on the difference between aboveaverage and belowaverage volatility dates on the 30day period centered after the day the index is computed for.









"With ecurrency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to
trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions
effortless."  Satoshi



Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.

Spekulatius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000


July 28, 2012, 09:33:29 PM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??




dree12
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029


July 28, 2012, 09:41:23 PM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the yaxis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility.




niko


July 29, 2012, 02:30:27 AM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the yaxis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility. So, if it stays constant at a positive value (a horizontal line in your plot), the volatility is getting higher and higher?

They're there, in their room. Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.



dree12
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029


July 29, 2012, 02:33:32 AM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the yaxis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility. So, if it stays constant at a positive value (a horizontal line in your plot), the volatility is getting higher and higher? Horizontal lines are not very likely because of the way the plot is made, but they do represent no change in volatility. The value is irrelevant except as a relative measure of volatility: 0 is Bitcoin's average volatility, 30 is far below average volatility, and 30 is far above average volatility.




niko


July 29, 2012, 03:53:16 AM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the yaxis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility. So, if it stays constant at a positive value (a horizontal line in your plot), the volatility is getting higher and higher? Horizontal lines are not very likely because of the way the plot is made, but they do represent no change in volatility. The value is irrelevant except as a relative measure of volatility: 0 is Bitcoin's average volatility, 30 is far below average volatility, and 30 is far above average volatility. Is this correct: if the index is 6, there have been 18 days with aboveaverage volatility in the past 30 days? Now, if we keep moving the 30day window, and the index remains constant at 6, this means that the average volatility keeps increasing (since index remains positive), correct? Just making sure I am interpretting the graph correctly. Horizontal line would represent the constant index, not the constant volatility?

They're there, in their room. Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.



dree12
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029


July 29, 2012, 03:54:43 AM 

So right now, according to your chart we areon the index value of about 5, in respect to the past 30day period, which means the volatility has gone down by 5% compared to the latest 30dayaverage??
The volatility index is measured in days, not percentages. I forgot to include the unit in the yaxis. It effectively measures how many days in the 30day period have been above average in volatility and subtracts the number of days that have been below average in volatility. So, if it stays constant at a positive value (a horizontal line in your plot), the volatility is getting higher and higher? Horizontal lines are not very likely because of the way the plot is made, but they do represent no change in volatility. The value is irrelevant except as a relative measure of volatility: 0 is Bitcoin's average volatility, 30 is far below average volatility, and 30 is far above average volatility. Is this correct: if the index is 6, there have been 18 days with aboveaverage volatility in the past 30 days? Now, if we keep moving the 30day window, and the index remains constant at 6, this means that the average volatility keeps increasing (since index remains positive), correct? Just making sure I am interpretting the graph correctly. Horizontal line would represent the constant index, not the constant volatility? The average volatility does not change. It is computed from two years of Bitcoin Mt. Gox USD data.





old_engineer


July 29, 2012, 08:15:37 PM 

The average volatility does not change. It is computed from two years of Bitcoin Mt. Gox USD data.
Is volatility calculated as an absolute number, or as a percentage of the current average price? If it's an absolute number like $0.75, then as the price rises the calculated volatility will go down. Which looks like what's happening in your graph, but perhaps that's an artifact. If it's not already, it should be normalized by using a %, which might be why s3052's chart is different from yours. Also, just out of curiosity, what is the 2year average volatility?




dree12
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029


July 29, 2012, 08:59:54 PM 

The average volatility does not change. It is computed from two years of Bitcoin Mt. Gox USD data.
Is volatility calculated as an absolute number, or as a percentage of the current average price? If it's an absolute number like $0.75, then as the price rises the calculated volatility will go down. Which looks like what's happening in your graph, but perhaps that's an artifact. If it's not already, it should be normalized by using a %, which might be why s3052's chart is different from yours. Also, just out of curiosity, what is the 2year average volatility? The volatility is measured by: abs(log(day2/day1))
This normalized based not only on %, but also on direction. The average volatility is 0.00380.0167. This covers the 34% of data points that are considered "average".




