Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[tss]

tss                has          +4.80 to +5.05   this need a correction

as both +4.76 to +5.00 and +5.01 to +5.25

have been picked before you picked.  maybe +5.26 to +5.50?

ok i'll take +5.26 to +5.50

[philipma1957]

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thank you philipma1957 for keeping track of this.


 Here is the current "official" list, sorted by the diff. Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

--- anything starting with -3.51% and below is still available

wayneyoyo  -3.26% to - 3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75

--- -2.51 to -2.75% and

-2.76 to -3.00% is still available

davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir  -0.76 to -1.00%

--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% and  -0.76 to -1.00%   are still available

jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%

SunnyIgor --  +1.51 to +1.75% note I corrected you from 1.5 to 1.51

--- +0.26% to  1.50% and +1.76% to  +2.00% are still available (5 intervals)

tss ------1.76 to 2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51 to +3.75%

--- +3.51% to +3.75% is still available

tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50% --------------------- and tss both have this number now this is a one time exception caused by my suggestion if they win I will pay one and suchmoon will pay the other. tss switched to +1.76 to +2.00  thanks
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - it spans two intervals and both were taken at the time that post was made, so I can't make any assumptions here:
tss +4.8 to +5.05

okay tss picked +5.26 to 5.50 at my suggestion  we now have 2 people at this range   UME and TSS   this is a one time exception due to confusion of picks .  if it comes in  I will pay one the .1 btc and suchmoon will pay the other.



@ A4Tech   you need to pick a different number there are a few in the zero to two range.

[philipma1957]

almost all realistic numbers are going  a few in the zero to two range are left. current different looks like

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.72)  


 Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,886,546,569 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1607 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):   337,622,576 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   15:40 (2.5 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ +0.32%



Blocks   345146
Total BTC   13.879M
 
Difficulty   46684376317
Estimated   46831914293 in 1606 blks
 
Network total   398022.617 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.15 / 504 s



no big jump up yet  510 block in and 1506 left.  


at this point in time.  + 0.26 to + 0.50 %   would be the winner according to bitcoincharts.com


yet   no one has that spot picked.

[suchmoon]

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats 

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

[ezeminer]

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats 

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

Well looks like that block has been cracked. Looks like over 3.8million dollars in output

[suchmoon]

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats 

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

Well looks like that block has been cracked. Looks like over 3.8million dollars in output

... and now we got 4 blocks in ~5 minutes.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under 144 norm
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over

A lot of blocks made on the 25th.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over

so the 4 full days  we are at 0.00% !  

   feb 22 was a bridge day with blocks made on last diff adjust ment .

my guess for a real time number right now is about 1%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.55%) ---- It is too high but a few days at 155 blocks a day

it would be on spot.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,340,580,460 (+3.55%)
Adjust time:   After 1410 Blocks, About 9.8 days
Hashrate(?):   343,087,114 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:10 (5.8 minutes ago)

[tss]

thanks.  i will pay closer attention to the available ranges on the next one.

to make things easier i'll switch to +1.76% to +2.00%

[philipma1957]

thanks.  i will pay closer attention to the available ranges on the next one.

to make things easier i'll switch to +1.76% to +2.00%

I think that one is open  .  it is yours I went back and checked.


to people picking  we have a few from +0.26% up to 1.50%  this is about 5 ranges.

[cryptokc]

I'll take 0.26% to 0.50%

[suchmoon]

There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10578375#msg10578375
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10580191#msg10580191

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

This is the last update before the deadline, so be careful when you post your guesses - I might not be able to warn you if something is wrong.

Deadline is 04:00 (4 AM) UTC March 1st, 2015.

To avoid time zone confusion - here is a countdown:

http://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/20150301040000am/w5310/1/Bitcointalk_Diff_Guess

--- anything starting with -3.51% and below is still available
wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
--- -2.76 to -3.00% is still available
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% are still available
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
--- +0.51% to +1.50% are still available (4 intervals)
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10578375#msg10578375
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10580191#msg10580191

[philipma1957]

nice clean up suchmoon


diff is now (+2.67%) at bitcoinwisdom


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,928,820,035 (+2.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1349 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   348,484,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:5 (1.5 minutes ago)

[suchmoon]

nice clean up suchmoon


diff is now (+2.67%) at bitcoinwisdom


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,928,820,035 (+2.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1349 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   348,484,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:5 (1.5 minutes ago)

Bitstamp breached $250. Still a lot of time to go in this cycle, so if the exchange rate holds or climbs higher we might see some effect from that.

[notlist3d]

Not a huge jump so far:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,430,052,314 (+3.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1319 Blocks, About 9.1 days

Also its nice to have the bump in price.  Hopefully it continues for a bit.

[philipma1957]

Not a huge jump so far:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,430,052,314 (+3.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1319 Blocks, About 9.1 days

Also its nice to have the bump in price.  Hopefully it continues for a bit.

yeah 255 usd is hopeful.

[A4Tech]

0.00% lets see .

[Jamphone]

0.00% lets see .

[Biodom]

0.00% lets see .

my understanding is that 0.00 is is actually an interval between >-0.01; <+0.01, and even for this interval the award should have been roughly 10-12X from a statistical point of view.

The probability of it being exactly +/-0.00X with X being less than 5, rounded to 0.00 IS smaller still (about 1/25 of each other interval).

[edonkey]

Our other cat says +1.26 to +1.5.

Personally I think it will likely be a little higher, but there aren't many slots this late in the game...

It's fun what this thread has become. Kind of like a crowded craps table