Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[philipma1957]

lookin' at the btc price trend   i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under,  we may see negative dif again

that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.

[mavericklm]

that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.

yes

RedhatCAT long run man, not just 1 diff jump

[suchmoon]

lookin' at the btc price trend   i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under,  we may see negative dif again

that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.

Well, at least we all loaded up on cheap mining hardware, didn't we? 

Should be able to survive a few 10% jumps.

[jmumich]

Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.

So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.

My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.

Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.

Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..

I do appreciate your work on this.  As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.

I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io  but your spread sheet nailed it.

It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current  BTC price  it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers

I added a Log tab that records the estimated difficulty change every minute and charts it - it's been in there since yesterday but I had to scrap a bunch of data due to a mistake I made during the switch to the next day. Hopefully that will help visualize the trend.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.

So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.

My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.

Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.

Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..

I do appreciate your work on this.  As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.

I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io  but your spread sheet nailed it.

It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current  BTC price  it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers

I added a Log tab that records the estimated difficulty change every minute and charts it - it's been in there since yesterday but I had to scrap a bunch of data due to a mistake I made during the switch to the next day. Hopefully that will help visualize the trend.

I will take a long look at it tonight.   I think your spreadsheet is the only place for a real time diff number on the net.  Pretty nice work by you.

[tlhIlwI]

The projected difficulty is creeping back down... maybe I'm still in this yet!

Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.

[philipma1957]

The projected difficulty is creeping back down... maybe I'm still in this yet!

Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.

You always can hope a farm burns down.

[RoadStress]

You always can hope a farm burns down.

Or gets stolen 

[suchmoon]

You always can hope a farm burns down.

Or gets stolen 

Or someone forgets to pay the power bill: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.msg10650588#msg10650588

[tlhIlwI]

I wonder what would happen to the difficulty if China ever had a widespread power outage...

Edit: Hey! 3.93%  It's in my range again!

[jmumich]

It looks like ghash.io has been out for a few hours. Not everyone has backup pools set. Their share of the hashrate has dropped significantly, but that could be slowing things down. Or variance.

[adaseb]

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

[ezeminer]

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.

[philipma1957]

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.

yep and many will just flip a switch.  I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes.  Back down to 0 in 20 seconds.  Many others can do the same.

The s-3's  can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2  minutes. 

There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.

 My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.

[valkir]

With this article : http://www.coindesk.com/is-518-the-fair-price-of-bitcoin/

Do you think people will switch one the miner is the perspective of getting more bitcoin before the price go up?

Does anyone know the Benjamin Graham formula and could explain me this formula and the quatlity of it?

can wait to see the next diff change!

[suchmoon]

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.

yep and many will just flip a switch.  I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes.  Back down to 0 in 20 seconds.  Many others can do the same.

The s-3's  can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2  minutes. 

There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.

 My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.

Would you really do that depending on price? I mean it only matters if and when you need to exchange BTC to fiat to pay the power bill, not when you mine those coins. So if I'm paying monthly, and my bill exceeds revenue for the last month and I don't see it getting better next month then I might consider switching it off.

Another consideration is resale value, I might want to switch it off sooner and dump it on eBay and replace it with better hardware if the numbers add up.

[judypug1956]

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.

yep and many will just flip a switch.  I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes.  Back down to 0 in 20 seconds.  Many others can do the same.

The s-3's  can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2  minutes. 

There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.

 My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.

Would you really do that depending on price? I mean it only matters if and when you need to exchange BTC to fiat to pay the power bill, not when you mine those coins. So if I'm paying monthly, and my bill exceeds revenue for the last month and I don't see it getting better next month then I might consider switching it off.

Another consideration is resale value, I might want to switch it off sooner and dump it on eBay and replace it with better hardware if the numbers add up.

On small scale I think a lot of us just mine even at a tiny loss.  Bigger companies  may have 100 s-3's or 1000 s-3's and 100 or 1000 s-5's

Just mine the s-5's 24/7  and turn the s-3's on and off.

A few days back  both nice hash and west hash were paying 0.0115 and coins were 280.  now you are at 0.0103 and coins are 265. that is a big drop off .

Flick a switch and don't mine your s-3's .

  I am not saying it as a reality but as a dollar and cents profit or loss it works.  I could see 1-2ph getting turned off based on the 2 drops above.

[Swordsoffreedom]

It dropped below my prediction range due to dropping prices
Wonder if it will keep going or stabilize

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,464,940,925 (+1.67%)
Adjust time:    After 447 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?):    339,183,411 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
   
Updated:    12:40 (43.0 seconds ago)

[philipma1957]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

[adaseb]

Yes these hashrates are pretty much impossible to predict.

The price is almost 30% higher then it was a few weeks ago and then the difficulty started rising, but now with the higher price is halts.

Makes no sense.