Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[philipma1957]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

[Quickseller]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

at 11;29 PM EAST COAST TIME +1.19%

BASICALLY STAYED FLAT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS !!
 

239 blocks to go

most likely max jump will not exceed 5%  we would need to do  the 239 blocks in 1 day to go over 5% .  That won't happen most

 likely  +1 to +3%

+0.51 to +1.00  was left empty

+1.01 to +5.75 are all filled up.

see below:



jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! Smiley
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%



I do not think it will go  higher then zebedee or lower then  jmunich  but you never know.  It would be funny if it is one of  the two missing picks.

I think it really depends on if you are right in saying that the massive drop in hash rate was due to ghash going down.

If you are correct then the miners would have been only effectively temporary taken offline and that hash power would have effectively be put back on the network, and all else being equal the estimated next difficulty will rise from where it is now.

If however the drop in hash rate was due to some amount of miners being "permanently" being taken offline then the average block time will continue to fall and will decrease the estimated next difficulty verses where we are now.

[philipma1957]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

at 11;29 PM EAST COAST TIME +1.19%

BASICALLY STAYED FLAT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS !!
 

239 blocks to go

most likely max jump will not exceed 5%  we would need to do  the 239 blocks in 1 day to go over 5% .  That won't happen most

 likely  +1 to +3%

+0.51 to +1.00  was left empty

+1.01 to +5.75 are all filled up.

see below:



jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! Smiley
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%



I do not think it will go  higher then zebedee or lower then  jmunich  but you never know.  It would be funny if it is one of  the two missing picks.

I think it really depends on if you are right in saying that the massive drop in hash rate was due to ghash going down.

If you are correct then the miners would have been only effectively temporary taken offline and that hash power would have effectively be put back on the network, and all else being equal the estimated next difficulty will rise from where it is now.

If however the drop in hash rate was due to some amount of miners being "permanently" being taken offline then the average block time will continue to fall and will decrease the estimated next difficulty verses where we are now.

Well lets say we are down 20ph due to ghash.  even it they all come back perfectly as I snap my fingers we jump from 340ph to 360ph  with the amount of blocks left in this adjustment it is too hard to go up to 5 %.  But next jump we will go up a lot.

this entire year the most blocks made in 1 day has been about 166.  so if we do that pace   we go over 2% but under 3% in the next 24 hours.

I for one like any number under 3%  .  price is up about 10%   and diff at 3% works well against that number.

[Quickseller]

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

at 11;29 PM EAST COAST TIME +1.19%

BASICALLY STAYED FLAT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS !!
 

239 blocks to go

most likely max jump will not exceed 5%  we would need to do  the 239 blocks in 1 day to go over 5% .  That won't happen most

 likely  +1 to +3%

+0.51 to +1.00  was left empty

+1.01 to +5.75 are all filled up.

see below:



jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! Smiley
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%



I do not think it will go  higher then zebedee or lower then  jmunich  but you never know.  It would be funny if it is one of  the two missing picks.

I think it really depends on if you are right in saying that the massive drop in hash rate was due to ghash going down.

If you are correct then the miners would have been only effectively temporary taken offline and that hash power would have effectively be put back on the network, and all else being equal the estimated next difficulty will rise from where it is now.

If however the drop in hash rate was due to some amount of miners being "permanently" being taken offline then the average block time will continue to fall and will decrease the estimated next difficulty verses where we are now.

Well lets say we are down 20ph due to ghash.  even it they all come back perfectly as I snap my fingers we jump from 340ph to 360ph  with the amount of blocks left in this adjustment it is too hard to go up to 5 %.  But next jump we will go up a lot.

this entire year the most blocks made in 1 day has been about 166.  so if we do that pace   we go over 2% but under 3% in the next 24 hours.

I for one like any number under 3%  .  price is up about 10%   and diff at 3% works well against that number.

You are right, we are pretty much guaranteed not to have the difficulty increase by more then 5%. However if it was ghash that caused the hash rate to temporarily fall then the next adjustment will likely be slightly above where the current trend would indicate, so I would estimate somewhere in the mid 2% range. If the fall in hash rate was not primarily due to ghash then the next adjustment will be below what the current trend would indicate and we could potentially see sub 1% or even potentially a slightly negative adjustment.

If you are measuring your profits in terms of fiat, and you must to some extent because your electric costs are in fiat then yes the current situation is good for you because the price is rising faster then the difficulty, which means that when measured in fiat your profits go up after the difficulty goes up.

[philipma1957]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

sat the 7th east coast time is 10:30 am

estimate is 0.97%

there is a chance no one will pick the correct number we have 2 empty slots.


jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%


As time runs down we look to stay in the ranges above.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 

they have 1.23%

 BTC at 270.50 usd

so if things hold lets say +1% diff and +15% price change for this adjustment.

This is a win for miners. 2 or 3 diff adjustment periods of +1%  for diff and + 15% for price and mining will look a lot better.

[notlist3d]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

It is pretty amazing to see Ghash go from worried about 51 percent to a smaller pool.  If you look at last 24 hours they are only 2 percent of blocks found. https://blockchain.info/pools

I will be happy if we get the 1 percent raise only with btc price slowly going up.

[philipma1957]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

It is pretty amazing to see Ghash go from worried about 51 percent to a smaller pool.  If you look at last 24 hours they are only 2 percent of blocks found. https://blockchain.info/pools

I will be happy if we get the 1 percent raise only with btc price slowly going up.

BTC world is a roller-coaster ride for sure.

Just  159 blocks to go.  even if they were all made in a few hours we would only go to +5%.  With price up 17% that works for me.

Since this entire year we have not made 159 blocks in less then 20 hours.  2%-2.5% looks like the max  jump.  more likely  +.076% to 2%

Would be funny if one of the  two empty ranges come in.

[Quickseller]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

It is pretty amazing to see Ghash go from worried about 51 percent to a smaller pool.  If you look at last 24 hours they are only 2 percent of blocks found. https://blockchain.info/pools

I will be happy if we get the 1 percent raise only with btc price slowly going up.

Well I think it is concerning that ~54% of the network hash rate is made up of pools based in china (and likely have a lot of their miners based in china).

It is my understanding that a lot of miners in china are actually very large mining farms, often controlled by a small group of people with some groups controlling multiple farms.

[philipma1957]

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

It is pretty amazing to see Ghash go from worried about 51 percent to a smaller pool.  If you look at last 24 hours they are only 2 percent of blocks found. https://blockchain.info/pools

I will be happy if we get the 1 percent raise only with btc price slowly going up.

Well I think it is concerning that ~54% of the network hash rate is made up of pools based in china (and likely have a lot of their miners based in china).

It is my understanding that a lot of miners in china are actually very large mining farms, often controlled by a small group of people with some groups controlling multiple farms.

As long as builders sell some home mining gear things will work out.  Home miners are a safety net for BTC   here is why:

 we can put the heat to use.
My house is in NJ, USA
A wicked cold winter has been in progress.  In my development 2 or 3 homes have had frozen pipes not me.  WHY btc miners set in spots where pipes may freeze.

See this thread


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=951758.0

I ran one for more then 1 month I ran an sp20 in the room and I ran an s-5 in the room.

Basically I used 1000 watts to mine in this spare bedroom since dec 1st.   It is under my kitchen and reduces the danger of pipe freeze to 0.

If I did not mine I would of ran this at 600 watts for the last 3 months

[Quickseller]

Bitcoinwisdom is showing an estimated next difficulty of +1.13% and the spreadsheet is showing that the network  is on pace for a 1.05% increase, but the 3 day moving average is -2.79% so the estimate is on a downtrend. With only 123 blocks to go I would say the chances of the difficulty adjustment falling within the unclaimed range of +.5 to +1.0% is pretty high right now.

[edonkey]

Wow. That's getting close to my cat's guess. If it was just a little higher...

Perhaps if I use enough conviction, I can tell the difficulty what value it should be.

Attention Difficulty! Obey my cat! You will be +1.26%! Or a little higher. But no higher than +1.50!

[philipma1957]

Bitcoinwisdom is showing an estimated next difficulty of +1.13% and the spreadsheet is showing that the network  is on pace for a 1.05% increase, but the 3 day moving average is -2.79% so the estimate is on a downtrend. With only 123 blocks to go I would say the chances of the difficulty adjustment falling within the unclaimed range of +.5 to +1.0% is pretty high right now.

yeah  if we get  a carry over   my pick is once again -1.11%    so what ever slot  that falls into is mine.

Pretty amazing if it falls into the carry over number.

But it is right there as of now.

[A4Tech]

Where is my name sir?

[philipma1957]

Where is my name sir?

you have 0 according to the list   you could get lucky

[sloopy]

Phillip / suchmoon:
Have you been running different threads like this for some time?
Do you plan to continue?
This is fantastic and since the cutoff was March 1, I hope I may be involved in the next one.

I think this type of common sense information is exciting to understand, and speculation threads are teaching me what I consider to be data points and truly appreciate the information from what I also consider some of the more valued community members.

Please let me extend my compliments to all of the people who share the wisdom gleaned from their experiences and sharp minds. I appreciate what experience, attitude, and aptitude you all bring to the table.

I sincerely look forward to participating!

Please do not consider me easily amused, but certain topics have always seized my attention in a way my ex-wives called unhealthy, but they are ex-wives so who cares

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

sat the 7th east coast time is 10:30 am

estimate is 0.97%

there is a chance no one will pick the correct number we have 2 empty slots.


jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%


As time runs down we look to stay in the ranges above.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  

they have 1.23%

 BTC at 270.50 usd

so if things hold lets say +1% diff and +15% price change for this adjustment.

This is a win for miners. 2 or 3 diff adjustment periods of +1%  for diff and + 15% for price and mining will look a lot better.

[philipma1957]

@ sloopy 

right now it looks like no one will win.  So we will have a carryover.  Suchmoon is paying the awards I don't know how many more he will do.

I will run a new  thread  on diff for all of 2015.  I am not sure if suchmoon wants to keep up the promo part that long. It would be more then 2btc if he did.  say 26 to 30 jumps at .1 btc =

2.6 to 3 coins


Back to current numbers


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

 real time number is  +0.84% only 35 blocks left. 

[philipma1957]

22 blocks left

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  reads (+1.27%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053     reads (+85%)


 so it looks like


jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

but these are the best chance

Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%

[philipma1957]

3 blocks left.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(+1.58%)




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053


(+1,24%)



bitcoinwisdom is the final word on the number

[suchmoon]

Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%

Congratulations to SunnyIgor!

Please let me know your BTC address.

[galdur]

Damn, I plain forgot about this one until after the first of March. But would not have been this low anyway, probably 3-4% or so.