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dree12
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August 03, 2012, 03:02:21 AM
 #41

Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.

Sorry I'm in the UK and i tend to sleep until 3 p.m. - hence ^^^
The chart is made with UTC as the time zone, which should be only one hour off London daylight time.
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August 03, 2012, 05:19:40 AM
 #42

Screw regular alpaca socks. EXTREME ALPACA SOCKS!

But can you buy them with bitcoin?

Grass Hill Alpacas are selling SURVIVAL Alpaca Socks for bitcoin. They are gavin's neighbor, btw!



These are going in my survival/doomsday pack (along some casascius coins of course).

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August 03, 2012, 05:41:28 AM
 #43

But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.

Seriously, I LOLed about this......

That's just one part of short... you wait til it goes below 10 and buy back the coins.. and u keep the difference.. that's the short...
Yeah, or your lender calls the mafia to help collect on your loan and you need to pay more than you sold them for... that's the short squeeze

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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August 03, 2012, 06:04:37 AM
 #44

The price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of shit-talk in the Something Awful thread about bitcoin.  The more they hate on it, the higher it goes, making them more and more wrong.

finally, a reliable indicator!

Thank you sir

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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August 03, 2012, 06:18:19 AM
 #45

The price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of shit-talk in the Something Awful thread about bitcoin.  The more they hate on it, the higher it goes, making them more and more wrong.

finally, a reliable indicator!

Thank you sir

Is there a link to the SA thread or is it in a subscriber section? SA trolls can be entertaining to read sometimes.

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August 03, 2012, 06:51:51 AM
 #46

During the spring we saw good news almost weekly - and the price went nowhere. I think the jump from 5 to 10 is just a delayed response. I certainly think that the good news more than justified a 2x jump.

Remember - a market cap of $ 0.1 billion is nothing. Nothing.
Bitcoin needs to reach well over $ 1 billion for anyone to notice. That, of course, is 100 usd/btc. Could happen before 2014 is over! Just buy more socks, etc.

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August 03, 2012, 02:57:40 PM
 #47

Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.


What's on y axis?

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Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
dree12
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August 03, 2012, 04:17:20 PM
 #48

Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.


What's on y axis?
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.
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August 04, 2012, 01:53:53 PM
 #49

It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.

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August 04, 2012, 03:05:58 PM
 #50

Hoping this holds true, going to pick me up some coins tomorrow.

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dree12
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August 04, 2012, 06:36:21 PM
 #51

It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.
Here's a 6-hour with the following error function:

Code:
((Days Increased + Days Decreased)^2 / (Average DI + Average DD)^2) * STDDEV(all values)

I'm not sure about the usefulness of this however. The motivation is that the more days recorded that are "boring", the more "stable" the day is (rather than being wild-swingish in nature). The STDDEV is multiplied to allow the error bars to show up. Do you have a better idea for an error function?

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August 05, 2012, 03:38:05 PM
 #52

* ErebusBat wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.

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augustocroppo
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August 05, 2012, 11:05:26 PM
 #53

* ErebusBat wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.

You are "smarter" as much you wish. Just improve your knowledge:

http://www.youtube.com/user/investopediacom

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/glossary.php
ErebusBat
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August 06, 2012, 02:01:49 PM
 #54

* ErebusBat wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.

You are "smarter" as much you wish. Just improve your knowledge:

http://www.youtube.com/user/investopediacom

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/glossary.php

Sweet, thanks for the links augustocroppo!

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niko
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August 06, 2012, 02:57:36 PM
 #55

It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.
Here's a 6-hour with the following error function:

Code:
((Days Increased + Days Decreased)^2 / (Average DI + Average DD)^2) * STDDEV(all values)

I'm not sure about the usefulness of this however. The motivation is that the more days recorded that are "boring", the more "stable" the day is (rather than being wild-swingish in nature). The STDDEV is multiplied to allow the error bars to show up. Do you have a better idea for an error function?
I was thinking a daily plot as above, with error bars representing 2*stdev based on four data points for each day (taken from the 6-hour plot).



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Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
dree12
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August 11, 2012, 08:04:24 PM
 #56

Okay, here's the daily plot with error bars. They represent ±1 STDDEV.
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