This is not "it"

[okthen]

So I've been seeing quite a lot of positive threads, and the feeling in general is quite bullish.
While I also had the same sentiment, I was recently looking at the charts (Bitstamp, 1 week) and noticed this:




[please excuse my 2 year old paint skills]
[when I say "looking at the charts" I mean it literally, no TA skills whatsoever...]

It seems we're going quite slowly. The last bull markets started quite fast, while these last weeks look more like what anticipated the final "crash" before the real bull run.
So basically, I think we'll still see another crash before the next bubble starts.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Nice painting!

[Ultros]

Bull markets don't start at "last red".

[8up]

At best you are here (after 2011 bubble).

[okthen]

Bull markets don't start at "last red".

Ok, maybe I misused the term bull market. I was referring to the fast, sharp rise we've seen before reaching a new ATH.

[thezerg]

Not sure any bull thinks that this is the hyperbolic phase... ppl see the 160 low as the capitulation and now we could have up to a year of slowly rising (on average) prices.

[randy8777]

i think it's better to see the price go up slowly but stable.
better slowly up than a pump followed by a dump. slow natural rise is what people want.

[okthen]

Not sure any bull thinks that this is the hyperbolic phase... ppl see the 160 low as the capitulation and now we could have up to a year of slowly rising (on average) prices.

No, of course not everyone, but I've seen a lot of "This is gentlemen" photos lately

[cramved]

I think the fluctuaions in the price are just chain reactions of people selling and buying due to changes in price i.e price goes down a bit everyone sells price goes up a bit everyone buys. If you want to find real crashes you have to look at larger time periods.

[thejaytiesto]

So I've been seeing quite a lot of positive threads, and the feeling in general is quite bullish.
While I also had the same sentiment, I was recently looking at the charts (Bitstamp, 1 week) and noticed this:




[please excuse my 2 year old paint skills]
[when I say "looking at the charts" I mean it literally, no TA skills whatsoever...]

It seems we're going quite slowly. The last bull markets started quite fast, while these last weeks look more like what anticipated the final "crash" before the real bull run.
So basically, I think we'll still see another crash before the next bubble starts.

But you should learn some TA if you wanna comment on the charts. Even TA analysts are wrong all the time, so without basic notions it's hard trying to predict an always impossible to predict market.

[HalFinneysBrain]

Bull markets dont START with parabolic blowoff tops, they end with them. 
Dont compare an early move in a young bull to the moves it makes at the end of a run.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Not to shit on anyone's parade, but I added some points of interest to the OP's chart. Just what I see that is different this time. (in the volume chart)


This is a correction to the bearish trend. A counter trend suckers rally, if you will...

[okthen]

Not to shit on anyone's parade, but I added some points of interest to the OP's chart. Just what I see that is different this time. (in the volume chart)


This is a correction to the bearish trend. A counter trend suckers rally, if you will...

You're right!
So it corroborates my suspicion No moon yet!

[inca]

Not to shit on anyone's parade, but I added some points of interest to the OP's chart. Just what I see that is different this time. (in the volume chart)


This is a correction to the bearish trend. A counter trend suckers rally, if you will...

You are short probably. Why not show the bitfinex volume instead? Or look down further at the MACD and see this has only just started moving.

[ajareselde]

What you are searching is a hype from 2013, and u cant compare this steady growth with a hype. We will not have that burst in price this year, not unless something big happens.
For bitcoin price to still go to frenzy, whales should spend quite an amount of money, and that is not something they want, since the halving is still whole year ahead of us, they would have to
keep up daily miners dump to keep the price up and thats just too much fiat spent.
Nice greens as u name them will appear about easter next year, maybe month +/-.

cheers

[okthen]

What you are searching is a hype from 2013, and u cant compare this steady growth with a hype. We will not have that burst in price this year, not unless something big happens.
For bitcoin price to still go to frenzy, whales should spend quite an amount of money, and that is not something they want, since the halving is still whole year ahead of us, they would have to
keep up daily miners dump to keep the price up and thats just too much fiat spent.
Nice greens as u name them will appear about easter next year, maybe month +/-.

cheers

You're right, I didn't look much to the previous bubbles, which actually would be more similar to this ones with long bear markets.

[Dexter770221]

You are now educated, and now you know how sexy green ends...

Compare it to women's. There's 2-3% (?) sexy women's in the world. Hanging with one will end MOSTLY with two cases:
a. You end totally broke
b. You end in psychiatric asylum

So. what's more important is 50-60% AVERAGE green...

[Amph]

slowly climbing yes, but still there is some pesky movement, hidden manipulation to drive the price up and to allow some little fish to buy in

[HalFinneysBrain]

If this rally is going to turn into anything, it is going to be like the early rallies in 2012, off of the $2 bottom, which were followed by some sideways movement and higher lows.  Not the two big bubbles if 2013. 

Whether this is one of those early bull market moves, or just another trap during the bear market, its too early to tell.

[Arghhh]

Way too fucking early for a rally.

First off, nobody is going anywhere without Gemini and the Bitlicense. Any premature rally will get dumped on by miners from China.

Secondly and somewhat related to first point: nobody is going anywhere without the big ETF, which is dependent on Gemini proving that the market in the West won't easily be raped by the Chinese dump monkeys.

Lastly and most importantly, we're constantly skirting with the blocksize limit. The moment volume picks up and we see tens of thousands of unconfirmed transactions disregarded into the void, the media will scream about how flaky bitcoin is as a method of payment, to which the newbs will dump coins faster than fat kid after eating Taco Bell.

In 2015, we are in the "2012" phase of quiet transition. Nobody is going anywhere after the 80% slow bleed. None. Infrastructure is building at a rapid phase and the mainstream media is none the wiser. This is in fact, a good thing.

Just wait until the Winkies gets their hall pass from Uncle Ben, the ETF gets their stamp from Uncle Sam, and Gavincoin goes live, then perhaps we are due for The Big Fucking Rally, and then it's lights out for fiat.