The next bitcoin bubble will be massive

[bb113]

This was meant for speculation (obviously). Please move if you see this, mods. Sorry about that, someone was talking to me as I was posting it...

You can click "Report to moderator" and request a move.

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.

[420]

This was meant for speculation (obviously). Please move if you see this, mods. Sorry about that, someone was talking to me as I was posting it...

You can click "Report to moderator" and request a move.

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.

Put your BTC where your hypothesis is: http://betsofbitco.in

[bb113]

This was meant for speculation (obviously). Please move if you see this, mods. Sorry about that, someone was talking to me as I was posting it...

You can click "Report to moderator" and request a move.

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.

Put your BTC where your hypothesis is: http://betsofbitco.in

I am pretty prude with my bitcoins. Where can I find reviews of this website?

[ElectricMucus]

ehm, didn't you predict a much higher value? Or what does the term "settle" refer to?

[bb113]

It did not settle where it would have lent support to my theory. My prediction is about october.

[420]

This was meant for speculation (obviously). Please move if you see this, mods. Sorry about that, someone was talking to me as I was posting it...

You can click "Report to moderator" and request a move.

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.

Put your BTC where your hypothesis is: http://betsofbitco.in

I am pretty prude with my bitcoins. Where can I find reviews of this website?

here:

I've used them very successfully including making a winning bet that Batman dark Knight 2nd movie wouldn't gross $200 Million opening weekend

[bb113]

This was meant for speculation (obviously). Please move if you see this, mods. Sorry about that, someone was talking to me as I was posting it...

You can click "Report to moderator" and request a move.

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.

Put your BTC where your hypothesis is: http://betsofbitco.in

I am pretty prude with my bitcoins. Where can I find reviews of this website?

here:

I've used them very successfully including making a winning bet that Batman dark Knight 2nd movie wouldn't gross $200 Million opening weekend

Yea but my bet is that the value rises 10x which, if it occurs, substantially increases counterparty risk or whatever you want to call it. I do like the idea of that site though.

[420]

Tried it:

You can't report your own post to the moderator, that doesn't make sense!

[/quote]

Why would you need to do that? You can move your own threads
There is(or was?) a "MOVE TOPIC" link below every thread you start.
[/quote]

You are correct. Now I know. If this rally settles around 16-20 USD it will lend support to my bubble forming hypothesis.


[/quote]

Put your BTC where your hypothesis is: http://betsofbitco.in
[/quote]

I am pretty prude with my bitcoins. Where can I find reviews of this website?
[/quote]

here:

I've used them very successfully including making a winning bet that Batman dark Knight 2nd movie wouldn't gross $200 Million opening weekend
[/quote]

Yea but my bet is that the value rises 10x which, if it occurs, substantially increases counterparty risk or whatever you want to call it. I do like the idea of that site though.
[/quote]

Seems to be a year old and strong, successful. lots of btc at stake for big bets such as obama vs romney winning presidency

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37069.0

[ruski]

You haven't factored into your idea:

a) the higher volume
b) the longer timeframe
c) the lessons learned from that spike.

B is a function of A, but it also contributes to stability and hurts volatility.

If you take a more reasonable approach and assume that nobody will continue buying when it's unlikely the price will be supported, you could cut that massive peak out from $20 to $30 leaving you at 20x stable price.

Now factor in the higher volume, and the longer decision making process behind it, the peaks will not be as dramatic and again less panic-buy fueled. Cut down to $14-$18.

Finally, with the above compounded, and the larger amounts of cash required for support, you could easily halve that, $7-$9.

As a gambler, you could wait for the same mistakes to be repeated and hope it reaches 30x stability or $120. Safely, I would be looking closer to $35-$45 for a peak.

[bb113]

You haven't factored into your idea:

a) the higher volume
b) the longer timeframe
c) the lessons learned from that spike.

B is a function of A, but it also contributes to stability and hurts volatility.

If you take a more reasonable approach and assume that nobody will continue buying when it's unlikely the price will be supported, you could cut that massive peak out from $20 to $30 leaving you at 20x stable price.

Now factor in the higher volume, and the longer decision making process behind it, the peaks will not be as dramatic and again less panic-buy fueled. Cut down to $14-$18.

Finally, with the above compounded, and the larger amounts of cash required for support, you could easily halve that, $7-$9.

As a gambler, you could wait for the same mistakes to be repeated and hope it reaches 30x stability or $120. Safely, I would be looking closer to $35-$45 for a peak.

A,B, and C are factored in. That is why this bubble will take so much longer to really manifest than the last one. You may be right about the peak though, in the past other implementations of this concept have predicted highs and lows pretty well but not so much magnitude. Its all fractal but I don't know anything about fractals really so I just do these heuristics that result in the OP. Markets can be pretty random but bubbles are a special case as far as I can tell. From what I have seen, if someone creates a bubble they can predict what happens with far better accuracy than during other periods, thus encouraging creation of bubbles by the well funded.

[Energizer]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

[bb113]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

Argument from authority and argument from consensus are the way most people make thier decisions. Search for the rate of mentions of bitcoin in this context vs (btc is ponzi, scam, etc) on twitter, google, talking to people, etc. I would say that is the best method for making predictions.

[420]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

[Energizer]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

[smoothie]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

[Energizer]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

[adamstgBit]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

bitcoin's 30 year chart is going to look like one crazy ass rally after the next

cant wait to see that 

[smoothie]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

1. You're being naive. It is possible. Remember June 2011? Oh wait....lol  

2. You obviously don't understand how markets work. How the fuck do you think we got from $32 to $2? You forget so fast....(don't let me stop you. Hang on to bitcoins forever LOL).

[420]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

bitcoin's 30 year chart is going to look like one crazy ass rally after the next

cant wait to see that 

well by definition you'll have to wait almost 30 years

[Energizer]

As we get closer to the estimated delivery date of ASIC, more miners are going to upgrade to ASIC. Bitcoin is being exchanged heavily nowadays as a medium of exchange for multiple different products/services. The more products/services will be offered in exchange to bitcoins the higher the value of BTC will be in exchange to USD. I've created a thread 3 weeks ago that speculates BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of the year. The speculation was basically bassed on the expected rise in difficulty in addition to 25 BTC block reward that is expected to happen in 4 months from now. I figured out lately that I was wrong: difficulty and block reward are just one of multiple other factors that affect BTC price. I still believe that BTC will continue rising toward 25$ "probably will reach 25$ or even 30$ by the end of October", and that is an effect of multiple facts, the most important of which is that BTC is gaining trust like never before.  

so you don't see a big crash at that point, you think the value of BTC should be up there? supply and demadn

Only an exchange site hack/incident can cause a crash. Thats how its been and thats how it will always be. btc-e hack that took place last month was one of which that would have caused a crash. But it seems that bitcoiners and exchange sites have learned tough lessons from old incidents and matured in better risk management and incident response. I personally was amazed how btc-e been able to recover the incident in no time.

I really don't see any reason why BTC price would go down, even after reaching 100$

1. False. Any large holder of btc can crash the price by dumping it all at once.

2. Price would go down when people cash out to fiat. Trust me the price never goes straight up forever. Remember this.

1. Wouldn't happen, cause any large holder of BTC is not a dump.

2. People are cashing out every single second and every time they cash out there is a new holder of the asset, who is taking his turn in appreciating it to the next round, hens BTC continue rising but slowly.

1. You're being naive. It is possible. Remember June 2011? Oh wait....lol  

2. You obviously don't understand how markets work. How the fuck do you think we got from $32 to $2? You forget so fast....(don't let me stop you. Hang on to bitcoins forever LOL).

If you read my earlier posts you would understand what I mean. Tell you what, forget about it, you wouldn't get it anyways.