The next bitcoin bubble will be massive

[molecular]

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

He didn't. He said mid-october 2012.

Regardless of the timing he still said a 2 month run up to a bubble that pops at $120... which we are well on course for.

Depends when you put the start of the runup. I'd put it at beginning of January. That's a slower runup than predicted. I'd still say it's a good call if we crash down to $15 or below after we've reached $120, though. (A bubble always pops all the way, right?)

[BitcoinTate]

Let's hope the OP doesn't call this correctly. BTC now at $104.

He didn't. He said mid-october 2012.

Regardless of the timing he still said a 2 month run up to a bubble that pops at $120... which we are well on course for.

Depends when you put the start of the runup. I'd put it at beginning of January. That's a slower runup than predicted. I'd still say it's a good call if we crash down to $15 or below after we've reached $120, though. (A bubble always pops all the way, right?)

Unless its just a speed bump on our way to $1000 lol

[hgmichna]

Prediction: You will be able to sell 1 btc for 120 USD in mid-october 2012.

Your timing was half a year early, but otherwise you seem to be astonishingly well on course. It looks as if $120 is now well in reach.

It is impossible to make any reliable and precise predictions for a bubble like this, but I would guess that this one will burst within the coming weeks. Since the number of transactions will explode when it bursts, Mt.Gox will stall as usual, so the trick is to sell your bitcoins before the panic sets in.

Since real-world bitcoin use has not increased by much since before the bubble, we can expect prices to sink back to $20 or even below $10 within about half a year. Don't believe the Cyprus news—the Cypriots have not bought bitcoins. Neither have the Spaniards. And if some very few actually have, they will be the first to join the sell-off panic to save whatever little bit they can still get out. Nearly everybody in the bubble has bought bitcoins for only one reason—because the price was rising. That's pure bubble-mania.

[humanitee]

Prediction: You will be able to sell 1 btc for 120 USD in mid-october 2012.

Your timing was half a year early, but otherwise you seem to be astonishingly well on course. It looks as if $120 is now well in reach.

It is impossible to make any reliable and precise predictions for a bubble like this, but I would guess that this one will burst within the coming weeks. Since the number of transactions will explode when it bursts, Mt.Gox will stall as usual, so the trick is to sell your bitcoins before the panic sets in.

Since real-world bitcoin use has not increased by much since before the bubble, we can expect prices to sink back to $20 or even below $10 within about half a year. Don't believe the Cyprus news—the Cypriots have not bought bitcoins. Neither have the Spaniards. And if some very few actually have, they will be the first to join the sell-off panic to save whatever little bit they can still get out. Nearly everybody in the bubble has bought bitcoins for only one reason—because the price was rising. That's pure bubble-mania.

loooooooooool.

No way in hell prices are going back to $20.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

"by much" - much relatively (% increase in users, transaction, merchants) or absolutely (No. of users, transaction, merchants)?

[hgmichna]

… Since real-world bitcoin use has not increased by much since before the bubble, …

"by much" - much relatively (% increase in users, transaction, merchants) or absolutely (No. of users, transaction, merchants)?

It is difficult to get at precise data, but when you look at actual, real-world bitcoin use to pay for goods and services, you see mainly Silk Road, Satoshi Dice, and a few others. Who is paying with bitcoins at namecheap.com or wordpress.com? Very few, an insignificant fraction of their customers.

And don't believe for a moment that Cypriots and Spaniards are buying bitcoin to flee from the euro. If anything, they buy gold or simply transfer their money to foreign banks. The Cyprus myth has had an effect though, it made more newbie speculators buy bitcoin.

So by how much has real-world use of bitcoin increased? Before the bubble, real-world use justified a bitcoin price of $2. If that real-world use had indeed doubled since then, it would now justify a price of $4.

Then you have some long-term speculators, who keep the price somewhat higher, simply because they believe in a fair chance for a bright longer-term future for bitcoin. I am one of them. I bought bitcoins at $10. I might be tempted to buy some more if the price falls back below $20, but that's about it.

Bitcoin will not live forever. It may get cracked. It may suddenly be superseded by something else. It may get stuck in its own technical problems because of its inability to handle a much higher number of transactions than it can barely handle today. It may get destroyed by its enemies. Its grand idea will certainly live on and may never go away again, but its first incarnation may not live for very long. That said, I'd be very happy if I could still use bitcoins 10 years from now.

[matt608]

… Since real-world bitcoin use has not increased by much since before the bubble, …

"by much" - much relatively (% increase in users, transaction, merchants) or absolutely (No. of users, transaction, merchants)?

It is difficult to get at precise data, but when you look at actual, real-world bitcoin use to pay for goods and services, you see mainly Silk Road, Satoshi Dice, and a few others. Who is paying with bitcoins at namecheap.com or wordpress.com? Very few, an insignificant fraction of their customers.

And don't believe for a moment that Cypriots and Spaniards are buying bitcoin to flee from the euro. If anything, they buy gold or simply transfer their money to foreign banks. The Cyprus myth has had an effect though, it made more newbie speculators buy bitcoin.

So by how much has real-world use of bitcoin increased? Before the bubble, real-world use justified a bitcoin price of $2. If that real-world use had indeed doubled since then, it would now justify a price of $4.

Then you have some long-term speculators, who keep the price somewhat higher, simply because they believe in a fair chance for a bright longer-term future for bitcoin. I am one of them. I bought bitcoins at $10. I might be tempted to buy some more if the price falls back below $20, but that's about it.

Bitcoin will not live forever. It may get cracked. It may suddenly be superseded by something else. It may get stuck in its own technical problems because of its inability to handle a much higher number of transactions than it can barely handle today. It may get destroyed by its enemies. Its grand idea will certainly live on and may never go away again, but its first incarnation may not live for very long. That said, I'd be very happy if I could still use bitcoins 10 years from now.

Have you not seen silk road?  There are many thousands of sellers, it's huge and growing, it's WAY more than doubled.

[bb113]

Its funny that this past performance -> future results analysis seems to be somewhat accurate. But how else would you expect the price to go other than a series of these "bubbles". The value really is either zero or a lot. If the answer is a lot it won't be a straight line, that is for sure.

[hgmichna]

Have you not seen silk road?  There are many thousands of sellers, it's huge and growing, it's WAY more than doubled.

How do you know?

Even if that were true, if the bitcoin value were mainly based on illegal drug trade, we would be doomed.

[hgmichna]

Its funny that this past performance -> future results analysis seems to be somewhat accurate. But how else would you expect the price to go other than a series of these "bubbles". The value really is either zero or a lot. If the answer is a lot it won't be a straight line, that is for sure.

I am already expecting the current bubble to burst and then the next bubble peak to follow in another two or three years.

But this is not good for bitcoin's reputation. If bitcoins shall be used for real-world trades, i.e. paying for goods and services, then we need stability.

On rainy Mondays I consider bitcoin to be a first try, hopefully to be followed by something better that incorporates the bitcoin experience and improves on it.

On Sundays I tend to think that these are teething problems and that bitcoin will stabilize in a few years, after all those newbie speculators have given me their money.

[bb113]

Its funny that this past performance -> future results analysis seems to be somewhat accurate. But how else would you expect the price to go other than a series of these "bubbles". The value really is either zero or a lot. If the answer is a lot it won't be a straight line, that is for sure.

I am already expecting the current bubble to burst and then the next bubble peak to follow in another two or three years.

But this is not good for bitcoin's reputation. If bitcoins shall be used for real-world trades, i.e. paying for goods and services, then we need stability.

On rainy Mondays I consider bitcoin to be a first try, hopefully to be followed by something better that incorporates the bitcoin experience and improves on it.

On Sundays I tend to think that these are teething problems and that bitcoin will stabilize in a few years, after all those newbie speculators have given me their money.

Why do you think bitcoin cannot "incorporate the bitcoin experience" and be improved itself? That seems like the path of least resistance. I think many people miss the social aspect of bitcoin. Anything can be changed, even the 21 mil limit. Personally if that looks like that will happen I'm out though.

[BitcoinTate]

Its funny that this past performance -> future results analysis seems to be somewhat accurate. But how else would you expect the price to go other than a series of these "bubbles". The value really is either zero or a lot. If the answer is a lot it won't be a straight line, that is for sure.

I am already expecting the current bubble to burst and then the next bubble peak to follow in another two or three years.

But this is not good for bitcoin's reputation. If bitcoins shall be used for real-world trades, i.e. paying for goods and services, then we need stability.

On rainy Mondays I consider bitcoin to be a first try, hopefully to be followed by something better that incorporates the bitcoin experience and improves on it.

On Sundays I tend to think that these are teething problems and that bitcoin will stabilize in a few years, after all those newbie speculators have given me their money.

Why do you think bitcoin cannot "incorporate the bitcoin experience" and be improved itself? That seems like the path of least resistance. I think many people miss the social aspect of bitcoin. Anything can be changed, even the 21 mil limit. Personally if that looks like that will happen I'm out though.

If they raised the 21 mil limit peoples confidence would be shattered. I would be out as well.

[Cluster2k]

We have seen 600% growth in price over the last three and a half months.  When do people think it looks, acts and feels like a bubble?  When we see 1000% in five months? 10,000% in twelve months?  In most bubbles there is evidence of the price curve experiencing exponential growth before the bust when everyone tries to sell at the same time. 

Nobody knows where the peak is with this one.

[afbitcoins]

Just discovered this thread, good read. I'll add to that chorus of if they increase the 21 million limit, i'll be out.

Was curious where you got the $120 figure from ?

[bitcon]

Just discovered this thread, good read. I'll add to that chorus of if they increase the 21 million limit, i'll be out.

Was curious where you got the $120 figure from ?

can they do that?    even if they can, i doubt they will. 

[bb113]

Just discovered this thread, good read. I'll add to that chorus of if they increase the 21 million limit, i'll be out.

Was curious where you got the $120 figure from ?

See the OP 30 x 4 ...

[bb113]

Just discovered this thread, good read. I'll add to that chorus of if they increase the 21 million limit, i'll be out.

Was curious where you got the $120 figure from ?

can they do that?    even if they can, i doubt they will. 

Its some lines of code, if everyone agrees it can be changed... It will go against the bitcoin prime directives to do so and the project will be abandoned by the critically thinking people if it occurs. It is still a possibility if enough foolish people get involved and somehow influential. The rest of us will move on to the next thing.

[xavier]

I have to be honest, I think the bubble is going to burst in the next 6 months.

There are some fundamental issues with bitcoin that will surface in next few months. On the other hand I have no doubt until these issues surface, the price will continue to rise.

Buyer beware!

[TiagoTiago]

I have to be honest, I think the bubble is going to burst in the next 6 months.

There are some fundamental issues with bitcoin that will surface in next few months. On the other hand I have no doubt until these issues surface, the price will continue to rise.

Buyer beware!

It is hard to warn about alleged issues with Bitcoin without sounding like you just wanna scare peeps a little so you can buy a bit cheaper...

[BitcoinTate]

I have to be honest, I think the bubble is going to burst in the next 6 months.

There are some fundamental issues with bitcoin that will surface in next few months. On the other hand I have no doubt until these issues surface, the price will continue to rise.

Buyer beware!

I agree 110% that there are fundamental issues with Bitcoin... the most important being that I don't have enough of them!