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Author Topic: The next difficulty level will make mining unprofitable.  (Read 7909 times)
epi 1:10,000
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May 25, 2011, 03:39:13 PM
 #1

Disregard this post...  My calculations are wrong
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grue
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May 25, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
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show your work.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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PRCman
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May 25, 2011, 03:40:51 PM
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Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

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May 25, 2011, 03:43:34 PM
 #4

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

In a couple of hours.
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May 25, 2011, 03:44:15 PM
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Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?
mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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May 25, 2011, 03:44:49 PM
 #6

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

In a couple of hours.

oh, how big will it be?

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bulanula
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May 25, 2011, 03:45:10 PM
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Well its going to be pretty soon. Check out bitcoincharts.com
hiVe
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May 25, 2011, 03:53:12 PM
 #8

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?

In a couple of hours.

oh, how big will it be?

about 90% increase in diff...good bye all
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May 25, 2011, 03:55:49 PM
 #9

There's nothing wrong with your calculation, as long as you ignore the fact that you misplaced the decimal point and it's actually 2.8 BTC = $20.9, or ten times the electricity cost.

(and your stated difficulty is more than the bitcoincharts estimate).

Mining is insanely profitable and will remain so for a while, get used to it.

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Jaime Frontero
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May 25, 2011, 03:57:25 PM
 #10

eh.  my miners are all paid for.

2.1 Gh/s.

so it'll take me about four days of mining a month to pay my electrical bill, instead of the two days that it's taking now.

< shrug >  i'm running 'em 'til they break.
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May 25, 2011, 04:01:14 PM
 #11

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?
mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

Nice circular logic you have going there.

Playing the lottery isn't close to profitable yet it doesn't stop people from sinking billions into it every year.
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May 25, 2011, 04:01:26 PM
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about 90% increase in diff...good bye all

The increase will not be anywhere near 90%. It is currently estimated at 71% with 357 blocks left to go. I expect the number to go up some more, but nowhere near 90%.

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Jaime Frontero
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May 25, 2011, 04:04:05 PM
 #13

eh.  my miners are all paid for.

2.1 Gh/s.

so it'll take me about four days of mining a month to pay my electrical bill, instead of the two days that it's taking now.

< shrug >  i'm running 'em 'til they break.

What do you pay for electricity?

i'm paying about $100/mo over and above my normal electric bill for the miners.  getting about 7-7.5 BTC/day.

n.b.:  i haven't turned on the AC yet...
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May 25, 2011, 04:06:29 PM
 #14

Just gonna put this out there...2x5870 + 1x5970 will get you more than 1390 mH/sec as well (and of course, as pointed out by another post, you're going to make way more than 0.28 per day @ 420k difficulty).

2x5870 = 420 + 420 (easily achievable, done so on 10 out of 10 5870s) = 840
1x5970 = 330 + 330 (easily achievable) = 660
840 + 660 = 1500 mH/sec.

1500 mH/sec @ 420k difficulty = 3.29 BTC/day x $7 = $23.03/day.

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barbarousrelic
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May 25, 2011, 04:07:22 PM
 #15

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?
mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig  will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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May 25, 2011, 04:09:07 PM
 #16

I'm paying $0,18 per kilowatt hour. Four days work for the monthly bill (A/C included) at current difficulty. Even at 100% difficulty rise - still quite profitable  Roll Eyes Miners are payed for long ago.

As Jaime Frontero said:
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i'm running 'em 'til they break.


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grue
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May 25, 2011, 04:13:02 PM
 #17

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.
People will drop out because it takes more money to mine than to buy. Anyone who mines at a loss is insane.

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig  will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.
correct.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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Clipse
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May 25, 2011, 04:13:13 PM
 #18

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

At block 27,008

Rig=mobo/cpu, 2x 5870, 1x 5970

Wattage= 889
Second watt factor at 1.9

max Hashing power= 1390 mh/s   -------> This is the max hashing rate I doubt most people can achieve this! In other words this is the limitation of current hardware available on the market.
Difficulty factor=495000

electricity cost @ 5.5 cents/kWh= $2.11 per day

.28 BTC a day or $2.09

kWh price calculator http://www.citytrf.net/costs_calculator.htm

your wattage cost is calculated wrong for some reason, it should be 0.899 x 0.055 per kwh x 24 = $1.18668 a day on power (mining income still nearly 100% of power cost)

here is my stats :

2x 550w Coolermaster GX psu (binded/chained)
4x HD5850 @ 1100/1250 1.275v pulling full load 220watt per card so thats total 880watt
MSI 890FXA-GD70
AMD Sempron 145 underclocked from 2.8ghz to 1.4ghz @ ~30watt

Total full load as read from kill-a-watt is 1050watt for the whole system which equals 1.05 kwh @ 0.072c (avg out peak/offpeak to be conservative with calculations)

So I am hashing at 420mhash/s per card totalling 1680mhash/s for total power usage of 1.05 kwh comes down to the following net gain:


Revenue per time frame: 842.01 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 786.78 USD (this is taken on a monthly run at next difficulty, so if you want to be a prune half this if you want to make up for extra difficulty increases)
Hardware break even: 0 seconds (allready paid for)
Net profit first time frame: 786.78 USD (this is a gain not a loss, and a hefty one for just 4cards)

uh oh, I just showed you 1680mhash/s on a single mining rig.

If you arnt profitable, you didnt do your homework.

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Chucksta
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May 25, 2011, 04:18:10 PM
 #19

Assuming you pay for electricity/air conditioning and have a electricity rate of 5.5 cents per kilowatt hour, the next difficulty jump will make mining unprofitable!

when will it happen?
mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.

shhh, don't tell everyone !!  we want people to stop !!  LOL
Jaime Frontero
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May 25, 2011, 04:18:39 PM
 #20

If this is true, then why would anyone drop out when it becomes unprofitable? And if nobody drops out when it becomes unprofitable, it won't become profitable again.
People will drop out because it takes more money to mine than to buy. Anyone who mines at a loss is insane.

My prediction is that buying and operating a dedicated Bitcoin mining rig  will tend toward slightly less than break-even in the long run because of competition against:

a) people who get electricity for free (college dorm dwellers, parents' basement dwellers)
b) people who have high-end graphics cards for their own video game amusement, who also use them on the side for mining. These people only care about post-hardware-purchase profits, not pre-purchase profits.
correct.

...with an addendum.

c) people like me, and Shades (above), who have paid-off miners, and whose mining costs are only electricity and maintenance.
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