Bitcoin Forum

Intended for speculation, analysis and discussion specific to the $GBTC investment vehicle or its price activity.
If you're obsessively refreshing the $GBTC quote page or trade history, share your neuroses here :-)

Listing current OTC Bids, Asks, Price: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)
Orders < 100 shares not guaranteed to appear.

More detailed order history:
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229 (http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229)

Courtesy of phoenix1, "best so far for charts and NAV of GBTC":
http://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/ (http://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/)

GBTC shares have a close relationship with the BIT Investment.
The relationship between bitcoin markets and the way the BIT Investment functions provide a novel interaction.
If you'd like to understand or follow the BIT Investment more closely, here is some more information and links. Thank you, Sitarow, for collecting this up.

An example of why a broader understanding may be helpful.
If we observe the BIT make large-volume purchases of bitcoins in the coming days (5/10/15), we will have indication that BIT Sellers today are likely reinvesting their profits.

Without further ado, the summary:

What is the

 

http://www.bitcointrust.co/
 

BIT INVESTMENT DETAILS


Fact Sheet
http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf

Bitcointalk BIT information and discussion can be found here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

P.S. Read the DISCLAIMERS:

I think this is the most commonly asked question, so I wanted to move it up to one of the reserved slots, at least for the first few weeks/months.

This is another one of those pure speculation, here's what's going on in my head posts.
Wanted to share my recent theorization. This is an interesting market dynamic.

There is no guarantee that any actor is correct. But I do feel understanding motives gives insight into how the market may behave down the road.

The million dollar question right now seems to be

"WHY are people paying these 100+% premiums? Who does that?"

I couldn't quite put my finger on it either.
There are lots of pieces, and I'm unfamiliar with most.
OTC. BIT holders converting shares after 12 month holding period. Tax deferred benefits.  Value-add for convenience, safety, etc.

Put a black box around all that, and call it valuation.  WHY are people willing to pay 100% premium?

I nearly liquidated my small existing position when I had the next thought:

As soon as COIN hits the market, GBTC will have a far more liquid, high volume competitor.  The only possible way the premium could remain is if (close to) the same premium exists for COIN.
I thought, surely this means we will rocket down to current-BTC prices.
But we haven't.
Sure I just realized these things, but they have been true of the market all along.

A reasonable explanation was still missing.
IPO enthusiasm was the only possible candidate.

Then it clicked.

Simplifying the sale mechanism - the only way new shares are introduced is when a 12+ month holder sells their coins.

If 100% of the BIT holders sold their shares, no new ones would be available for purchase for 12 months.  Except on the "aftermarket", from GBTC sellers that had originally purchased from these first-sellers.

So this initial supply is limited. It is large, but it is limited.

If we assume the following:
a) COIN will eventually launch.
b) Market prices will eventually drive both COIN and $GBTC to close-to-parity with BTC market prices, with a small, constant premium.

There is one explanation for why people are willing to pay $50/share for GBTC.

The market has indicated its belief that the exhaustion of the first wave of shares, reconciled against the aftermarket seller price, will result in an equilibrium on par with market prices when BTC prices are worth no less than $500.

Said more simply, buyers believe we'll run out of shares for sale before Bitcoin valuates to $500.

I think of it like a metric from a prediction market.

Reserved

Let's get this speculation started!

We finally got real price discovery action today.
Looking at the orders which filled today, and the net effect on the order book, I am expecting us to bounce down into Maxim's $35 Bid before moving upwards.

I sold the few shares I had not sold at 133 and 65 at 50 today, and am hoping to rebuy just above Maxim.

While I would have been really excited about $GBTC rallying to >250% premiums over BTC...and it still could depending on what actors do over the next 2 days...but I do think consolidating in to a premium in that $350, 40% (!!!) premium range is more sensible to market participants.

If this occurs, we will suddenly move into a more liquid fund. Right now we have about 3.5k max in liquid shares. Maxim is offering up 50,000.  That must be the catalyst, unless market activity compels current BIT holders to post large offerings at higher Asks, pulling the market upwards.

Reserved ;D

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes

Symbol:    GBTC 2015-05-07       
Time      Price   Volume   Market
15:38:24      40.00   227   OTO
15:29:37      45.00   25   OTO
15:29:32      45.00   16   OTO
15:29:19      45.00   100   OTO
15:19:20      47.00   9   OTO
15:16:17      45.00   25   OTO
15:13:40      47.00   25   OTO
15:11:27      47.00   8   OTO
15:11:20      47.00   2   OTO
15:03:09      50.00   20   OTO
14:55:09      50.00   5   OTO
14:53:50      50.00   100   OTO
14:47:41      55.00   9   OTO
14:35:36      55.00   5   OTO
14:14:40      50.10   10   OTO
14:09:42      55.00   100   OTO
14:08:57      55.00   7   OTO
14:08:51      55.00   2   OTO
14:04:25      55.00   100   OTO
13:58:44      55.00   5   OTO
13:58:44      55.00   9   OTO
13:58:37      50.00   5   OTO
13:58:36      55.00   5   OTO
13:58:35      55.00   190   OTO
13:58:35      55.00   100   OTO
13:58:34      55.00   25   OTO
13:58:32      55.00   100   OTO
13:58:26      55.10   100   OTO
13:58:13      56.00   100   OTO
13:55:15      60.00   2   OTO

Done with reserved posts?  ;D

5$ drop from what it seems.

https://i.imgur.com/YgP8LXg.png

The short-lived upward movement wasn't met with a small drop. I'm pretty sure that it could go further down because of no support existing.

Image from:
http://quotes.wsj.com/GBTC

Thanks for that, sitarow.
You can see the book now has 1127 Asks between $45 and $50.
With only 550 shares between the current, highest $40 and Maxim's $35.

Today is the first day there have been Asks, close to Bids, going unfilled.
That imbalance has grown as the day has gone on.

While still deciding, I think an eventual price between $35 and $65 is pretty probable.
That's still broad, but much more sane than the first day's $35-$200 range.

(1 share sold for $200.00 on the first day.)

I think we will see some more selling pressure... Arbitrage will hit this market soon. First BIT investors can really easy double their position and will probably do that despite they won't be able to sell for another year. Those investors who are looking on those shares as a long term investment is arbitrage actually a golden opportunity now.

Will be interesting to see increase in BIT shares when they update on their page (30.5).

will be interesting to watch on what sort of premium above the underlying BTC price the shares settle.

Let's make a poll and guess?

it should settle similarly to GLD at ~1-2% discount, NOT premium

when has Bitcoin (and related stuffs) ever done what it SHOULD have done?  ;)

I don't think that's necessarily true, as with paper gold, you can never be sure that it's actually backed by anything, so you have to price the risk in. With BTC backed shares, there ARE mechanisms for ensuring BTC backing. Therefore it's entirely possible that there be a premium, which represents someone else handling the security and insurance of your share of BTC.

The only thing that could be called a 'Wall' right now is the Maxim Group LLC buy order.

Trading volume is slowly increasing and it seems that some people realized that they could just buy BTC on the markets at a lower price.

Interesting, I suppose the Second market BIT observer was getting a bit crowded.  And BIT is different from GBTC.

glad to see this post ,i will keep an eye on it

Reserved front page seat in potentially historical thread  8)

Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)   May 08, 2015
Symbol:           
Time      Price   Volume   Market
11:19:47      50.00   24   OTO
11:19:46      50.00   1   OTO
10:52:17      54.50   10   OTO
09:55:30      50.00   1000   OTO
09:51:48      50.00   100   OTO
09:51:31      50.00   100   OTO
09:48:37      59.00   250   OTO
09:48:34      50.00   100   OTO
09:48:31      59.00   170   OTO
09:40:07      50.00   240   OTO
09:39:47      50.00   9   OTO
09:37:40      52.00   1   OTO
09:35:30      50.00   900   OTO
05/07      40.00   227   OTO
05/07      45.00   25   OTO
05/07      45.00   16   OTO
05/07      45.00   100   OTO
05/07      47.00   9   OTO
05/07      45.00   25   OTO
05/07      47.00   25   OTO
05/07      47.00   8   OTO
05/07      47.00   2   OTO
05/07      50.00   20   OTO
05/07      50.00   5   OTO
05/07      50.00   100   OTO
05/07      55.00   9   OTO
05/07      55.00   5   OTO
05/07      50.10   10   OTO
05/07      55.00   100   OTO
05/07      55.00   7   OTO

LOTS of volume today around $50/share $500/BTC

If in fact this one will be an epic thread starting a new era/trend then there should be a price for admission. ~2900 volume so far today at respectable prices and it's just about lunch time on Wall St. Now, up over $241. ;D

GBTC Volume now 4905 5905

Could very well be. If ETFs really are the way to go, I expect COIN to have an even bigger impact (obviously) but this could very well be the starting point. History in the making. There, I said it!

Should've opened up the quote page rather than just add up the captioned showing I guess. Wow, things really are heating up quite well.

Volume is really picking up today. Should be interesting to see how it plays out as more shares are moved into a tradeable system.

Shucks, I think I only made it to page 2 of another thread that will go down into history :D I think I have to watch out for the COIN observer thread once it goes live :D

The first page was more or less "reserved" anyway.

From company information:

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

Anyone got a better chart for gbtc? Loving the volume but overbook is almost unchanged

OP could add this: https://www.google.com/finance?q=gbtc&ei=PORMVbnmOYSTswfizYCQBQ

Nice thread...i hope the ETFs will start a new era of BTC

I think Maxim realized the current market conditions and acted accordingly.
With their big buy present, 1 of 3 scenarios would play out:
-An initial fill from a holder, setting a confident floor to the price. (This failed to materialize.)
-A counteroffer in the form of a matching-size bid on the Ask side, creating price tension for the market to find the middle.
-A second+ Bid creating additional market pressure upwards. (This failed to materialize.)

Until any occurred, the order was having an effect.
With where we stood after the 3 days of price action, my sentiment became:
-I will only buy above Maxim.

I believe a large part of their initial bid was to facilitiate price discovery. In the long run, this is good for Bitcoin.

Once volume was bootstrapped, pulling the bid was the right call.
They do not need to take on the burden of being the first big bidder.
The market can move to its seeming true price, and THEN they can re-post at an appropriate price.
(Or they could shift strategies and start accumulating, but I don't think this is as likely.)

Given their pull, and the subsequent market action, I am reading it as follows:
-The market is gaining confidence that by selling today, they will not be missing out on $100/share prices tomorrow. Willingness to sell is increasing.
I am seeing the trading range of 40 to 55 as likely (75%, 90% chance IMHO we end up within 35 to 55) to be where we settle into after our first wave of higher volume, followed by lower volume. (This volume is starting to increase, starting today 5/8/15.)

Yesterday I had bids at $36.69.
I'll probably be moving that to a half-buy at just-above $40 levels for today, and reserving the second half until equilibrium seems to be reached, or bitcoin-market rally mode is confirmed.

Given the volume, I think Maxim did what I had pegged as the least likely scenario - changed strategies.
Betcha they just keep relisting 100 BUY at 50, but did not want to communicate the 50K ask and just get outbid while serving as the floor.

If this proves to be correct, Maxim just raised the proverbial floor.
This would be in my view the best case, the one that left those price ranges estimates at 90%. There was a chance of utter crash or floor increase.

Watching with great interest.

If and when other bidders 'get wise' to this action, the same process will repeat, with little bids front-running...and then we could have ourselves a _real_ rally and initial price peak.
Gonna have to think about whether I want to shift buy strategies based on all this or just miss out and wait...

That's an interesting analysis.  Yeah they did help facilitate price discovery.  And with the currently volume, 10000 which is quite high they're still not close to getting filled.  SO they'll have to wait a bit,

Hopefully were seeing the start of investors that can buy btc directly from exchanges start to do so.  And btc price will slowly rise to bit prices.

That was fast.
By the time I posted and looked at the market, NITE and CDEL put up 815 shares at 50.01.

I grabbed a few again at 53 (and so did someone else to a larger degree, looking at the trade data.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229

I expect us to touch at least 59 again today. After that, lots of possibilities.

But seeing this Maxim strategic shift, and subsequent market reaction, on significantly increased volume in the form of new BIT sellers - I am liking it!

this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.

The question is whether bitcoin moves upwards rapidly towards GBTC (not that likely IMO) or whether they both converge which coincides with bitcoin breaking out of its downtrend.

from my point of view, they will converge at $350-400 and then move pretty much together.

We're saying the same thing, just coming at it logically from 2 different angles.
In my example and your example the numbers line up and the GBTC purchasers are paying a +100% markup at this time.
I agree they'll line up better down the road as well.

Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust    May 08, 2015
Symbol: (GBTC)          
Time      Price   Volume   Market
14:19:58      54.50   275   OTO
14:14:03      55.00   200   OTO
14:14:00      52.00   400   OTO
14:13:48      50.00   498   OTO
14:08:36      52.00   2   OTO
14:03:01      53.00   50   OTO
13:57:13      53.00   25   OTO
13:29:09      50.00   1000   OTO
13:25:17      50.00   1000   OTO
13:18:15      53.00   10   OTO
13:08:09      50.00   1000   OTO
12:55:05      53.00   300   OTO
12:48:00      52.95   29   OTO
12:47:54      52.95   64   OTO
12:47:52      52.95   5   OTO
12:40:38      52.95   7   OTO
12:24:59      52.95   18   OTO
12:24:42      52.90   75   OTO
12:15:29      52.95   1   OTO
12:14:56      52.95   30   OTO
12:04:00      52.95   1   OTO
11:52:19      52.00   10   OTO
11:47:56      53.00   59   OTO
11:45:12      53.00   172   OTO
11:34:56      50.00   1000   OTO
11:25:02      50.00   500   OTO
11:24:00      50.00   500   OTO
11:23:10      50.00   500   OTO
11:22:38      50.00   500   OTO
11:19:47      50.00   24   OTO

A posted Bid of $50 and a posted Ask of $51.

I'll be watching how the market reacts to Maxim's presumable 'ever-renewing' Buy at 50.00.
The first few hours it led, then frontrunners got some fills, and now they sit at the top.
Bidders outbidding the leading bid shows demand outpacing supply.
Maxim holding the lead indicates a possible false floor, if sufficient new liquidity does not replace theirs.

This is another one of those pure speculation, here's what's going on in my head posts.
Wanted to share my recent theorization. This is an interesting market dynamic.

There is no guarantee that any actor is correct. But I do feel understanding motives gives insight into how the market may behave down the road.

The million dollar question right now seems to be

"WHY are people paying these 100+% premiums? Who does that?"

I couldn't quite put my finger on it either.
There are lots of pieces, and I'm unfamiliar with most.
OTC. BIT holders converting shares after 12 month holding period. Tax deferred benefits.  Value-add for convenience, safety, etc.

Put a black box around all that, and call it valuation.  WHY are people willing to pay 100% premium?

I nearly liquidated my small existing position when I had the next thought:

As soon as COIN hits the market, GBTC will have a far more liquid, high volume competitor.  The only possible way the premium could remain is if (close to) the same premium exists for COIN.
I thought, surely this means we will rocket down to current-BTC prices.
But we haven't.
Sure I just realized these things, but they have been true of the market all along.

A reasonable explanation was still missing.
IPO enthusiasm was the only possible candidate.

Then it clicked.

Simplifying the sale mechanism - the only way new shares are introduced is when a 12+ month holder sells their coins.

If 100% of the BIT holders sold their shares, no new ones would be available for purchase for 12 months.  Except on the "aftermarket", from GBTC sellers that had originally purchased from these first-sellers.

So this initial supply is limited. It is large, but it is limited.

If we assume the following:
a) COIN will eventually launch.
b) Market prices will eventually drive both COIN and $GBTC to close-to-parity with BTC market prices, with a small, constant premium.

There is one explanation for why people are willing to pay $50/share for GBTC.

The market has indicated its belief that the exhaustion of the first wave of shares, reconciled against the aftermarket seller price, will result in an equilibrium on par with market prices when BTC prices are worth no less than $500.

Said more simply, buyers believe we'll run out of shares for sale before Bitcoin valuates to $500.

I think of it like a metric from a prediction market.

Maxim is testing the market.
They put their Bid at $49 to see if the market will follow them down.
If they are rewarded for their efforts, I would expect them to rinse and repeat the experiment.
I think they're trying to accelerate the price discovery, let someone else soak up some shares, in case the final settled price is lower.

30 minutes left for the day's trading, very interested to see relative volume and price moves.
13,569 shares as of now.

Interesting analysis... I've been watching these first days very closely and your explanation of the premium sounds reasonable, hadn't thought of that.

Yup GBTC is like a black box.  There is totally limited supply right now.  And the demand for that limited supply could be huge.

Also no $49 bids got filled.

Yep, good thread Chainsaw. It's fun to observe and speculate in a comprehensive fashion when the environment isn't  overflowing w/ troll nonsense.

New ask

CSTI   50.00   2000   15:45


* Correction make that 4000

Why would one buy a BTC for $490, when the price on US-regulated exchanges is $244?

Why is this same question asked every day?

I know one thing, if I was a year long holder of GBTC and underwater, I would happily dump my GBTC at a value of $500.00 and then take that profit to the exchange and double you bitcoin exposure.  This is possibly the reason for the spot price rally today.

Could be the reason for future rallies too.

Bottom line, ETF's are going to be great for bitcoin.  

So, I have a Roth IRA account where I could sell Visa https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1431117137729&chddm=127346&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:V&ntsp=0 (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1431117137729&chddm=127346&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:V&ntsp=0) which has done very well for me since 1/21/2014 (time to take profits; nothing goes up forever) and use the proceeds to purchase GBTC right away (avoiding the headache/delay of purchasing BIT shares at NAV).  In my mind Visa was a hedge against my Bitcoin investments and it isn't clear to me yet that it is time to go all in (or rather just more in) for Bitcoin.

*If only* I could purchase BTC (as opposed to GBTC) within my Roth IRA account.  Perhaps I should renew my efforts to figure out one of those "checkbook IRA" deals, e.g. http://www.broadfinancial.com/self-directed/self-directed-ira-16 (http://www.broadfinancial.com/self-directed/self-directed-ira-16).

Btw, I felt it was wrong to use Western Union https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1431117318203&chddm=496179&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:WU&ntsp=0 (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1431117318203&chddm=496179&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:WU&ntsp=0) as a hedge.

4k ASK at 50

I first worried about this as a looming negative over the weekend. I think that was a nervous over-reaction.  CSTI's bid shows an intent to buy at least 4k more at the same 50.00 rate that 4,000 new shares entered the market at today.
My read - "Don't worry Maxim - we'll be here buying again at Monday. At $50. Not $49."


I posted the only logical theories I can think above a few posts above.
Simplified, I postulate we will find GBTC equilibrium at the same price that COIN becomes available.


I think this will be general market sentiment. Once COIN is available, it will be more desirable. At that point, GBTC purchases will track with it, for when it falls below, it will be an arbitrage opportunity.

A nice day of trading. Nice to see real volume, a true middlepoint hit, and a first fight for which side will pull the other.

Remember there are two camps of shares. Once sold, they become more liquid. I expect volume to ramp week to week as this liquid portion increases.

don't you need a wall observer to have a wall observer thread?  ;D

The answer to this question is simple.  The only advantage in buying this fund over buying BTC straight is the ability to purchase in your tax shielded accounts.  Therefore, the logical explanation is that people are paying a premium to get exposure to tax free BTC gains.  If you believe the price is headed to $10,000, you would much rather purchase at $500 without tax liabilities than to purchase at $250 with tax liabilities.  That is the only logical explanation for the premium we are seeing.

2nd rename suggestion.
The intent was a parallel but specialized speculation/analysis/theorizing/watching thread specific to GBTC, and speculated interactions with the BTC market.

Throw out some suggestions (all).  I'd say I'm all ears but there was a most excellent burn in masterluc's thread the other day that I don't want repeated in my direction :-)

Maxim Group LLC is asking 200000  per share  ;D

https://i.gyazo.com/763f795870db7d35248736b173a6981a.png

Instead of renaming the thread just construct a wall observer. That would be useful.

Maybe Richy_T would be willing to post a GBTC version of his output to this thread. I don't know if an available data stream for $GBTC is in the same format as what he's currently parsing or receiving from.
Might be worth pursuing. 

I appreciate Sitarow posting the book from time to time.

Then we had to see these premiums on other funds too, like commodity or currency ETFs. E.g. I can put GLD easily into a tax shielded account, but not gold bullion. Nonetheless there is no premium on GLD.

This is a moot point anyway as you can buy more than 2 bitcoins for one "GBTC" bitcoin and come ahead even in a taxed account as long as your taxes are less than 50%.
In addition, most retirement accounts are tax-deferred, not untaxable (except Roth where you are taxed ufront).

I'm talking about Roth IRA accounts. You pay 0% on the profits. Let's say you got 1 BTC @ $500 in a Roth IRA acct, and 10 years from now you sell it for $50500. That's $50K profit with 0% tax. Now let's say instead you bought 2 BTC and in 10 years you realize $100K profit. Now you pay 9% California tax + 38% Federal tax + medicare, etc. - roughly 50% in tax. You get only $50K in actual profit. At the end - it's the same thing. So up to double the price, people in a tax free retirement accounts can afford to buy.

Disclaimer: This is just an opinion, I'm not a financial or a tax expert, so consult one before making decisions.

Or you buy 20 BTC now and when it reaches 50k you gtfo of the U.S.

I'm not talking about myself. I'm talking about people who have $200K in retirement acct, they can not yet withdraw.

Speculating about a positive possible outcome:

We are two steps away from the market revaluating to include ~135,000 BTC of buying pressure.
(They track this in the BIT thread, a great synergy thread to the $GBTC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0 )

Provided we:
1. Demonstrate growing demand for coins offered from BIT holders (Bid volume stays flat or grows).
2. See evidence of a BIT seller using proceeds to reinvest in the cycle (large, new BIT purchases).

This would complete the loop, the market will have evidence of the full cycle.
The trust functions as a microcosm of what Bitcoin's effect stands to be on a global scale.

Investors profit. Profits are reinvested to grow the fund and create future profits.
There is a race effect, a motivation for current holders to sell first (high demand and premiums), and also a race effect to rebuy.

An example.
We see 5,000 BTC get sold (50,000 shares GBTC released).
A few days later BIT purchases 8,500 shares on market (the market coins were cheaper, fees paid, etc)
Market price goes up $5.

We now have a few extrapolations. 8500 shares / 135000 shares = 1/20th effect. If market volume remained constant, a $5 increase represents 1/20 of movement.
Revaluated net effect of GBTC current holder cycling and rebuying, $100.

But what happens then?
The larger market will get to decide. If it rejects that valuation, volume will fill in on the Ask sides, and the same $ generated from the BIT->GBTC sales will move the price up less.
Conversely, revaluated contracts and a 'race to get cheap coins' could cause a swift revaluation upwards.

When thinking about the likelihood of this, one big question that comes to mind is - will current BIT profiteers reinvest? First thought says yes, who wouldn't sign up for another year when you just netted a 100% premium for your coins?  But the window of opportunity is closing. Next year it is very unlikely (IMHO) that $GBTC will be the only investment option.  To keep it simple, let's just say COIN is the only other emergent fund.

You're not likely to get a premium in this way, investing in COIN. I speculated earlier that I expect GBTC and COIN prices to end up close to each other and close to Bitcoin prices. However, that is not to say that each won't carry a premium.

Remember, in each case you are buying a stock for the future performance of that fund.
Once it is demonstrated that a profiting fund allows that fund to buy more coins, thus increasing the value of that fund...the same principle will apply to GBTC and COIN.
People will be willing to pay more today because of the expectation. The purchase of the stock includes the purchase of its future actions.

An ongoing thought in progress. I wanted to share for rejection/refinement/general knowledge sharing.

We're used to planning for future selloffs (auctions).
It's novel to think through how a market will valuate a future buy-in.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes

Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust   May 08, 2015
Symbol:   (GBTC)

Time      Price   Volume   Market
15:57:31      49.00   163   OTO
15:55:20      49.00   50   OTO
15:53:52      49.00   100   OTO
15:53:50      49.00   100   OTO
15:53:42      50.00   5   OTO
15:45:29      51.00   150   OTO
15:37:37      50.00   500   OTO
15:32:46      49.95   10   OTO
15:32:17      50.00   100   OTO
15:27:49      49.00   50   OTO
15:23:36      50.00   10   OTO
15:06:48      50.00   600   OTO
15:02:56      50.00   92   OTO
15:02:44      50.00   400   OTO
15:01:21      50.00   100   OTO
15:01:09      50.00   500   OTO
15:00:31      51.00   10   OTO
15:00:27      50.00   200   OTO
14:58:32      50.00   100   OTO
14:55:34      52.00   29   OTO
14:51:57      50.00   100   OTO
14:51:55      50.00   100   OTO
14:44:25      50.00   1   OTO
14:43:33      53.95   1   OTO
14:35:41      52.50   160   OTO
14:35:41      52.50   40   OTO
14:19:58      54.50   275   OTO
14:14:03      55.00   200   OTO
14:14:00      52.00   400   OTO
14:13:48      50.00   498   OTO

So... do I get this right, this is the new MtGox wall observer thread?  Including all the implications of that one? :D

Seriously though, good idea for a thread. Not sure yet what exactly to make of it, but it's another era for BTC, just like ASIC mining, or the previous reward halving. Interesting times.

It's certainly interesting. These types of investment vehicles are purely investments (not users) and they only adjust their prices after weekends and holidays while Bitcoin markets are open 24/7.

Because there is no satisfying answer yet?

The tax argument is invalid.

As soon as COIN is trading, the ETF will buy and sell BTCs on a daily basis (since it is an open fund). COIN price will be connected to BTC price. So why would someone pay a 100% premium for GBTC?

Maybe some who speculate that the BTC price will be way above $500, when COIN launches and is unable to buy BTC on an exchange now?  

Or just gambling with a low liquidity stock to make some bucks?

The facts are coming in and it's obvious that this initial ETF or whatever it is, is causing a bullish mindset in onlookers and will only increase when COIN comes to play. And, this is w/o any of these or the others coming on board imminently, stirring any demand or bullish fervor. We're gonna need the roof to be raised soon.

That's right I said it, and "bringing it back" also if you haven't heard it in awhile/decade.

Absolutely
Nobody has even talked about the management fees either. Surely if you are looking for a tax efficient wrapper, you are considering it for the long-term. Maybe > 10 years. Maybe even 20 years.

IIRC fees are 2% annually and collected in BTC, assuming you start with 100BTC of exposure,

after 10 years, it is reduced to 81.7 BTC
after 20 years this becomes 66.76 BTC

JUST FROM THE DEDUCTION OF FEES !!

Now tell me why anyone would pay a premium to hold this product for the long term for tax reasons.
It makes no sense whatsoever

There is only one winner in the long run with this product, and it ain't Joe Public ;)

If you trade on GBTC you don't have to sign-up to a Bitcoin exchange.

Most pro traders prefer having a single interface that allows you to trade thousands of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies etc. - trading would be very annoying if you had to sign up to a few hundred platforms

I want to share this ^_^ comment here for those that may not be following the other GBTC conversations.
https://i.imgur.com/hXwnZaAl.png (https://i.imgur.com/hXwnZaA.png)
https://i.imgur.com/ZdAzkPBl.png  (https://i.imgur.com/hXwnZaA.png)

http://www.bitcointrust.co/
https://i.imgur.com/6EMxNkfl.png  (https://i.imgur.com/6EMxNkf.png)

BIT INVESTMENT DETAILS


Fact Sheet
http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf

Bitcointalk BIT information and discussion can be found here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

P.S. Read the DISCLAIMERS:

Sitarow, I moved up your summary of the BIT into the first reserved comment slot.
Squawk if you'd like any changes, or if you'd like me to remove it, or your attribution.

Thank you for putting that together.

I have a few more reserved slots, because I think there are a few community knowledge gaps.
The big one where I think Grayscale Invest could have done better is to provide a
"Trading GBTC For Dummies" page.

They have a unique (?) experience where their primary market base will be comprised of people previously inexperienced with OTC trading.
I went through this experience, learning on the first day, and trying to communicate and clarify those ambiguities.
Fear keeps people from trading.
I would have LOVED to see a page.
Top 5 commonly asked questions, with simple answers. Explaining the common misperceptions that seem like 'bugs'.  Explaining at a high level the relationship between $GBTC shares and the coins held in the BIT.
Not seeing your trades show up, or having questionable price-range displays. Perfectly normal for someone accustomed to OTC prices. Scary to someone inexperienced, and coming from a background of BTC where price discrepancies can be a canary for an exchange about to have big problems.

Sorry to state the obvious, but I'm too wordy to put together concise answers to "the big questions".
If someone thought it worth creating, that is what one of the other reserved spots was for.

Oh just another day of Wall Street paying huge premiums for GBTC.  Nothing to get excited about of course!!!

I will be really excited when I see more BTC being bought through Second Market with the thought that the $GBTC sells are doubling down on their number of BTC

You can buy physical gold in a tax shielded account.  



Some people would prefer not to pay taxes if given the choice, but you are correct with this thinking and that is why the premium is most likely a reflection of the tax rate of it's buyers with a little boost for those who are ignorant and hit buy without researching.  This is something I wasn't expecting, and if it holds true for COIN, things could get interesting, particularly for the ones who bought all the BTC for the fund.  It's starting to make sense now why the Winks didn't bat an eyelash at selling $1,000 BTC.  They're going to make an absolute killing on premiums and maintenance fees.  It's actually scary how rich they would become if BTC is truly successful in the long term.

If COIN can achieve top brand status, they could very well make a killing. I'm not sure if it'll be socially on par with building a Facebook but it could end up more profitable in the long-term. The tax thing is likely a huge motivator. If you're paying capital gains of 15% or more if short term or in a greedy state, the price doesn't have to rise that much (in Bitcoin historical terms) for it to end up profitable versus buying BTC.

The trading experience is unique or maybe it isn't but others can confirm if they're seeing the same thing. My first trade went for more than I asked for though it was a small quantity limit order. The second was big enough but doesn't seem to have shown up all that clearly in the volume. Though I figured out who my orders would show up as, it seems they are only provided in aggregate with whoever is trying to trade through them and if I'm not the best bid or ask, my order is hidden.

Only orders >=100 shares are 'guaranteed' to show, and even then, it is not certain.
The OTC rules are funny.
So your order was likely filled by grabbing shares offered at a better price than those listed.
Shares in the same position as yours.

Here is a historical log of all actual trades.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229

Courtesy of 'bad trader' from another thread:

You might want to tag this page ... best so far for charts and NAV of GBTC  ;)

https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/ (https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/)

Thanks phoenix1! I updated the intro post to include it.

Sellers sold into the $49 on volume today. They blinked.  You give 'em an inch...

I anticipate MAXM to post a Bid below $49 tomorrow. My guesses:

a) 30% - post a 100 share Bid offer at $47 or $48.
b) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $45
c) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $35
d) 20% - hold the line at $49.

Choosing a) or d) if they'd like to accumulate while walking the market down slowly and/or hold the line, and b) or c) if they'd like to accelerate the price decrease before making the bulk of their purchase.

If this plays out, it will of course be how the sellers respond that will drive the outcome.

Good to see volume hold up today, it was looking thin at the start of the day.

I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.

Don't be so surprised. Clue: 228.6 pseudo-BTC total volume for today.

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 2286 shares (less than 225 bitcoins).

https://i.imgur.com/HwOIdQp.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

Though liquidity is low, we haven't had any sort of interesting price move in BTC since it launched. A small rise, yes, but we'll probably only gain new information about how well connected GBTC is to BTC with something like a 5-10% price move.

Wow, it's already dead. Nice try sillbert and friends, washing trades.

This low volume event could end up being either good or bad for the market.
So long as a staredown occurs, Sellers are demonstrating they have no desire to sell their shares for less than at least.

Grayscale publicized the link to the page showing the asset-backed value per share, putting it around $23.xx.

If >=1 big seller blinks and sells down the price, we will get an increase in volume, but at lower price.

IMHO, the more bullish scenario for share price would require us to remain in this stalemate. The bullish catalyst to break out would be seeing bitcoin market prices increasing. If that plays out, then I could see increasing price on increasing volume.

Honestly, I am hoping the price goes down. It seems like it would be healthier.
Unfortunately, I think there are an awful lot of people eager to buy - people holding retirement money and waiting for 1+ years, so I'm not sure how low we will get.

Personally, I'm staying out until we drop to closer to the $35 level. Maybe it'll never fill.

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 327 shares (less than 32.1 bitcoins).

https://i.imgur.com/CJ5sVnX.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

It looks like OTCMarkets lied to me. GBTC officially closed at 49.95 yesterday, not at 49.00. Today it should be 49.00, though.

There were not many trades:
https://i.imgur.com/oEixZoZ.png (http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales)

Don t forget that the average BIT share was bought for ~40--50 USD.  I would think that 24 $/share is way too low for those who have those shares, while 49 $/share is way too high for those who are thinking of investing in bitcoin through BIT.

According to other posters, the daily ranges shown in the OTCQX quote page ignore any trades smaller than 100 shares.  Today there was only one trade above the threshold: 175 shares at 49.00 $/share.  There were however other smaller trades at 49.95 and 50.00 $/share.

I know. I think I was the other poster (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg11304742#msg11304742).

Anyway, after the market closed they said the price was 49.00, although the sell was under 100 shares and shouldn't have counted. Then the next day they apparently decided it indeed didn't count.

But the listing shows a 174 share trade at 49.00.  Why do you say that it should not have counted?

I was talking about the day before that.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes


Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust May 14, 2015
Symbol:   (GBTC)
Time      Price   Volume   Market
15:59:27      45.00   500   OTO
15:57:21      44.00   300   OTO
15:48:16      44.00   100   OTO
15:44:05      45.00   500   OTO
15:43:04      44.00   81   OTO
15:42:09      45.00   500   OTO
15:29:51      44.00   100   OTO
15:15:49      44.90   1   OTO
14:46:54      44.50   100   OTO
14:35:45      44.50   50   OTO
14:35:12      44.50   1   OTO
14:28:31      45.00   100   OTO
14:08:52      46.00   769   OTO
14:07:36      47.00   7   OTO
13:57:29      46.00   7   OTO
13:17:33      46.00   245   OTO
13:17:27      46.00   180   OTO
13:17:23      46.00   200   OTO
13:16:46      48.00   70   OTO
13:16:31      48.50   10   OTO
13:16:19      48.00   33   OTO
13:16:04      48.50   100   OTO
13:15:54      48.95   3000   OTO
13:15:26      48.55   500   OTO
13:14:25      48.50   600   OTO
13:14:17      48.55   500   OTO
13:13:26      48.50   500   OTO
13:12:35      48.50   400   OTO
13:10:09      49.00   500   OTO
13:07:52      48.55   743   OTO
13:07:15      48.50   300   OTO
13:06:43      48.50   300   OTO
13:06:33      48.55   1000   OTO
13:06:09      48.50   300   OTO
13:05:28      48.50   300   OTO
13:04:09      48.50   400   OTO
13:03:10      48.50   300   OTO
12:16:47      48.75   100   OTO
12:06:36      48.62   997   OTO
12:06:15      48.75   1500   OTO
12:05:56      48.50   400   OTO
12:04:17      49.00   0   OTO <-------?
12:04:01      48.75   500   OTO
12:03:00      48.75   400   OTO
12:02:18      48.90   1200   OTO
12:01:55      48.75   300   OTO
12:01:05      48.75   300   OTO
11:58:26      48.75   100   OTO
11:57:41      49.00   100   OTO
11:57:15      49.00   131   OTO
11:56:52      49.00   100   OTO
11:56:40      49.00   100   OTO
10:18:28      49.90   20   OTO
10:18:26      49.95   49   OTO
05/13      49.00   38   OTO
05/13      49.95   38   OTO

Biggest volume yet:

https://i.imgur.com/XZhNrX0.png

The GBTC market closed at 45 dollars per share with volume of 19894 shares (less than 1950 bitcoins).

https://i.imgur.com/9nHXyoS.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

The previous volume record of 14807 on Friday was broken.

We surpassed Maxim Magazine. If Bitcoin is more important than hot girls naked, you know moon is guaranteed.

We surpassed Maxim Magazine. If Bitcoin is more important than hot girls naked, you know moon is guaranteed.
[/quote]

Bitcoin, fiat and everything else is not, and never will be, more important than hot girls naked. You need a cup of tea and then take a nap and when you wake up you will be back in the real world. 

Some big trading volume today. The daily range is somewhat wide but the price price doesn't seem to be taking any significant movements either way though at the end of the day.

Happy to see some volume.

The other Bitcoin markets give zero fucks which is a little funny, but hey.

because compared to actual exchanges volume isnt much. Although price kinda makes you raise your eyebrows.

Its slowly growing, pretty impressive volume for just starting out imo.  More and more whales are going to be getting interested off the back of GBTC.  The start of wall street push lets hope.

I don't really feel that comparing GBTC to actual bitcoin exchanges is the best comparison you can make. Both cater to very to different markets and serve different demands. But GBTS seems to be gaining volume at an increasing rate, I'm not sure if this could be sustained and extended in a longer term session or if it's just the hype of a market opening. Surely though, it's nice to see a bigger variety financial products involving bitcoin. Given the good start GBTC keeps enjoying, I think it at least has some potential as an asset.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes

Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust May 15, 2015
Symbol: (GBTC)           
Time      Price   Volume   Market
15:56:58      39.00   5   OTO
15:55:35      38.00   100   OTO
15:51:09      39.00   20   OTO
15:51:05      39.50   200   OTO
15:50:54      39.70   50   OTO
15:46:37      40.10   10   OTO
14:12:01      40.10   1   OTO
13:27:20      40.05   25   OTO
13:01:46      40.00   130   OTO
12:29:15      40.00   171   OTO
12:28:55      40.00   75   OTO
12:28:46      40.00   116   OTO
12:28:06      40.50   9   OTO
12:11:47      40.00   7   OTO
11:12:09      40.00   79   OTO
11:07:09      41.00   25   OTO
11:06:48      41.00   100   OTO
10:41:24      41.00   30   OTO
10:30:16      42.00   2   OTO
10:26:59      42.00   90   OTO
10:26:41      42.00   100   OTO
10:19:49      43.90   60   OTO
10:16:34      42.00   15   OTO
10:04:12      44.00   5   OTO
09:32:29      44.50   100   OTO
09:32:27      44.50   91   OTO
09:32:23      44.50   450   OTO
09:31:08      45.00   245   OTO
09:30:05      45.00   9   OTO
05/14      45.00   500   OTO


https://i.imgur.com/YnlCFyO.png

Volume spikes and dies, it's pretty easy to understand that it's just some arbitrage goin on infact the price is correcting and coming down to reality (don't forget that part of the premium is because it's tax free)

It appears that Maxim is no longer providing a floor (close to recent trades.) Without the floor, it's no surprise the price fell a lot on low volume.

I think most of the buyers were exhausted yesterday. Hopefully monday brings some more buyers.

This asset is severely constrained in ask supply only. The only part of the buy-side that is in short supply are the people willing to pay ridiculous 100% markups.

The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).

https://i.imgur.com/dpWEeJH.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

Isnt that 232 bitcoins? So just over 230?

Actually no ... note that 1 share is 'approx 0.1 BTC', which translates as '0.1 BTC - (2% pa, comound)'. At the moment it looks like it is about .0965 BTC > about 225 BTC  ;)
Another typical BTC 'sleight of hand'  ::) - should be made much clearer on that quote page than it is. Instant 3.5% haircut ... wahooooo !!

https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/ (https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/)

It may have some sort of tax benefits, but Shillbert is levying his own tax ...

And people are STILL paying a premium for this low liquidity shite  ::)

Posted on reddit:

Seeking Alpha, Jordan Flannery May. 15, 2015
Bitcoin Investment Trust: Avoid This Vehicle As It Trades At 101% Premium To NAV
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3188116-bitcoin-investment-trust-avoid-this-vehicle-as-it-trades-at-101-percent-premium-to-nav (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3188116-bitcoin-investment-trust-avoid-this-vehicle-as-it-trades-at-101-percent-premium-to-nav)

Jordan Flannery... such advice, many insight.

That's funny -

beware because GBTC will likely converge with the NAV over the long term, so you might be paying too much by buying shares at NAV which trade at a 100% premium to NAV a year later.

Like anyone knows what BTC will be worth in a year! If you're worried about a possible factor of 2 in either direction in a year, bitcoin is not for you =D

Yeah, I haven't bothered to figure out what the exact BTC value of GBTC is, so I've been just taking 2% off and then throwing out some roundish number above that.

15% losses! Ouchy, if there's actual arbitrage going on, we could expect the price going even lower depending on to what extent this is followed. For the short term, I do expect the price rebounding a little after such losses.

Well we hit $35.
No real volume to support the level. Now we get to find out if the initial, large $35 Bid by Maxim will serve as support.
Watching with interest this morning.

EDIT: Well that took about 30 seconds. We just sold at $34. I think now we are more likely to drop quite a bit, then find the real bottom/equilibrium, somewhere between 0 and 50%.

Now 31. The "steam" is out. It's only a matter of time when it will trade at fair value, especially when you can get in (via a $25k investment into the fund)  at the BTC-exchange price.

I think XBT Provider stole the steam of this one.

The GBTC market closed at the all time low at 27.15 dollars per share (~280 dollars per bitcoin (https://tradeblock.com/markets/gbtc/xbt-usd/1d/)) with volume of 4950 shares (less than 490 bitcoins).

https://i.imgur.com/tmAHPel.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

Meanwhile, the volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~949 bitcoins.

https://i.imgur.com/dyixkFQ.png

BIT shares (GBTC) daily trading summary:

           !   OTX !   OTX !   FRT !    FRT !    FRT !        FRT !       FRT !     
Date       !  PRLO !  PRHI !  PRLO !   PRHI !   VSHR !       VUSD !      PRAV ! OBS 
-----------+-------+-------+-------+--------+--------+------------+-----------+----------
2015-05-04 | 37.98 | 42.00 |   .   | 200.00 |    765 |        .   |    .      | (*0)(*1)
2015-05-05 | 55.00 | 94.86 | 50.00 | 175.00 |    435 |   32198.00 |  74.01839 | (*0)
2015-05-06 |   .   |   .   | 65.00 |  68.00 |    125 |    8268.50 |  66.14800 | (*0)
2015-05-07 | 40.00 | 66.00 | 40.00 |  86.00 |   2844 |  163651.00 |  57.54255 |     
2015-05-08 | 49.00 | 59.00 | 49.00 |  59.00 |  14807 |  750019.70 |  50.65305 |     

2015-05-11 | 50.00 | 57.95 | 49.50 |  57.95 |   2756 |  143247.34 |  51.97654 |     
2015-05-12 | 49.00 | 50.01 | 49.00 |  52.25 |   2286 |  113299.25 |  49.56223 |     
2015-05-13 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 |  50.00 |    327 |   16113.10 |  49.27554 |     
2015-05-14 | 44.00 | 49.00 | 44.00 |  49.95 |  20894 | 1004923.74 |  48.09628 | (*2)
2015-05-15 | 38.00 | 45.00 | 38.00 |  45.00 |   2320 |   97444.35 |  42.00188 |     

2015-05-18 | 27.15 | 38.00 | 27.15 |  38.00 |   4950 |  158115.83 |  31.94259 |     
2015-05-19 | 27.90 | 29.50 | 27.89 |  29.90 |   4308 |  122327.92 |  28.39552 |  

"OTX" data from the GBTC quote page at OTCQX (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote).
"FRT" data from the Freerealtime site (http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=66649), except those flagged (*0) and (*1) (see below).

PRLO = Lowest price in specified day.

PRHI = Highest price in the specified day.

VSHR = Number of shares traded in day.

VUSD = Trade volume in USD (sum over all trades of num of shares times price per share).

PRAV = Average price in day = VUSD/VSHR.

OBSERVATIONS:

(*0) The "FRT" price range for this entry was obtained from this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg11310999#msg11310999).

(*1) For 2015-05-04, the values of PRLO, VSHR, VUSD, and PRAV could not
be determined; the value of VSHR was taken from the OTCQX page.

(*2) The summary pages at OTCQX and FreeRealTime.com say 19894, but
adding the FreeRealTimes list of trades we get 20894 (1000 more). The
VSHR value given is the latter. There were 2 trades near the end of the
day; perhaps one was undoing the other?

The volume of GBTC (http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/) was less than 422 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~300 (https://tradeblock.com/markets/gbtc/xbt-usd/1d/) dollars per bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/HjiijdX.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One (http://xbtprovider.com/lang_en) was ~547 bitcoins today.

https://i.imgur.com/pvmkM8R.png (http://www.netfonds.se/quotes/ppaper.php?paper=BITCOIN-XBT.ST)

The volume of GBTC (http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/) was less than 476 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~326 (https://tradeblock.com/markets/gbtc/xbt-usd/1d/) dollars per bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/ERXdiGz.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One (http://xbtprovider.com/lang_en) was ~455 bitcoins today.

https://i.imgur.com/aXE4gKd.png (http://www.netfonds.se/quotes/ppaper.php?paper=BITCOIN-XBT.ST)

The volume of GBTC (http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/) was less than 282 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~331 (https://tradeblock.com/markets/gbtc/xbt-usd/1d/) dollars per bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/vRwYCnm.png (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote)

The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One (http://xbtprovider.com/lang_en) was ~681 bitcoins today.

https://i.imgur.com/10k77zY.png (http://www.netfonds.se/quotes/ppaper.php?paper=BITCOIN-XBT.ST)

Price of GBTC continues to slide toward Bitcoin proper on low volume. I couldn't buy with my Roth through sharebuilder. Anyone have any luck purchasing in any sort of tax advantaged account?

Ok I have to admit I thought this would be a lot more bullish for the price if bitcoin because it's a safe haven for big investors who aren't that tech savvy to get in & get themselves a piece of the bitcoin pie.
I know it's still very early days for a new business/corporation but I can't help but admit that yes, I'm disappointed.
Come on GBTC prove me wrong, do something positive to the price ASAP.

I think the premium is the problem - it's too high. Why is it so? Because of the structure of the fund, that new buyers can only buy from long-term holders, who have no desire to sell at these prices after holding for more than a year. I can't see this changing any time soon TBH
The XBT structure is a much better product as it is new issuance at close to NAV.

COIN is what matters!

Yeh, a true ETF, not a jumping-through-hoops fudge. MUCH more interesting to investors.
Only then will we find out what real demand is. I would not get to downbeat about this one LFC ... its just not the real deal - it's supermarket Cola selling for more than Coke.

Odd:

Bid Price
CSTI   28.15   100   10:28

Ask Price
CSTI   29.25   1000   10:28

Odd how? This is what market makers do. Buck and change to be made on the spread.

I agree wholeheartedly. And I hope once it happens

Well there's not really any volume to support market making profits, and also the volatility would make it risky in the first place. Of course it's settled now, but at the time they placed that bid it was still not showing a clearly defined path.

GBTC was just another hype shit that didn't even work, this market is collapsing, nobody wants to get in at these prices.

Now, now. GBTC seems to have settled at around $29. If there's any reason to believe GBTC should trade at a premium, then this might reflect that. Of course, I'm still waiting for a rise in Bitcoin proper with a corresponding rise in GBTC with significant volume to confirm. It's really too early to draw conclusions. But, yes it was a bit hyped.

Could it be that all buyers so far have been by people who already held BIT shares?

* They know what BIT is, few other people do.
* They believe that bitcoin will someday be worth a lot more than now.
* They are prepared to wait many years for that.
* They probably bought other shares for 400-800 $/BTC, so 290 is cheap.
* Buying more of something is an easier decision to make than buying the first one.
* They may be tempted to buy just to keep the price from falling.

ever since watching the GBTC launch, I've been even more excited to see some real exposure to actual, liquid, regulated markets. This could be interesting.

Instead of GBTC moving down the market is going up and getting closer to GBTC value.

If people got into BIT when BTC was $600, and are in it for the long run, they have no reason whatsoever to sell. I believe part of the reason for the premium is that there just isn't enough supply. In fact if I was a heavy buyer at $600, it would make more sense to double down at these prices than to sell anything. I mean look at downside v.s. upside potential. OK downside there is some chance it would go bust, like down to $0. But it is my personal belief that it is way lower than 50% v.s. going double from here within 5 years.

Following

Premium is there because of tax free environment.

I wonder which asset is affected by Greece more? GBTC or BTC.

The Freerealtime page today was strange:

14:53:33       29.09    3    OTO
14:50:51       29.09    18    OTO
14:33:23       29.05    56    OTO
14:33:23       29.05    50    OTO
14:33:19       29.09    200    OTO
14:24:29       29.09    1000    OTO
14:13:17       29.10    340    OTO
14:06:52       29.1122    4747    OTO
14:06:21       29.1122    4747    OTO
14:02:09       29.09    20    OTO
13:40:56       29.00    1774    OTO
13:40:04       29.14    100    OTO
13:14:35       29.14    900    OTO
13:06:50       29.11    1000    OTO
13:06:18       29.14    1000    OTO
12:55:43       29.05    100    OTO
12:48:37       29.15    100    OTO
10:38:32       29.1122    4747    OTO
10:38:11       29.00    500    OTO
10:38:04       29.19    100    OTO
10:38:00       29.50    2800    OTO
10:37:43       29.50    100    OTO
10:37:17       29.25    100    OTO
10:36:48       29.25    1000    OTO
10:36:18       29.25    1000    OTO
10:08:33       29.25    70    OTO
10:06:51       29.25    20    OTO
10:05:21       29.25    57    OTO
10:04:37       29.10    340    OTO
09:59:19       29.25    86    OTO
09:59:11       29.25    154    OTO
09:54:01       29.25    100    OTO
09:47:46       29.25    25    OTO
09:45:45       29.00    1774    OTO
09:45:35       29.25    100    OTO
09:44:56       29.29    100    OTO
09:31:03       29.95    10    OTO
09:30:11       29.95    224    OTO

Note the weird entries with "4747" shares.  The total comes out as 29562 shares, which is 6861 = 4747 + 1774 + 340 shares more than the total volume listed on the OTCQX page.

Also note that trade was rather strong but stopped just before 15:00.  Isn't the closing time 16:00?

GBTC had a daily volume of 27,256. That's 7-8x more than average and I think a new all time high.