Bitcoin Forum

Bitmain confirmed that the S9 is coming soon™:

http://archive.is/RANno#selection-4047.0-4109.5

https://meem.link/i/a/1mRb43.jpg
Edited 2020-11-28 to fix a broken image

So obviously the right thing to do now is to speculate on the specifications, delivery date, price etc. We have to do it quickly though - before the actual announcement - because it's no fun to speculate on something that is known.

Anyway, my guess is 10 TH/s, 1500W (they tend to creep up with each release), two weeks before halving, and too fucking expensive.

Edit: it's official - 14 TH/s, 1375W, shipping starts June 12, $2100 (~ 4 BTC as of May 31, 2016)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493601.0

or more realistically 8TH/s ~ 1,350 watts ~ $1,599

When do you think it will show up? I think there are two opinions here:

1) before halving - to take advantage of fools who look only at the current profitability
2) after halving - for Bitmain to mine for themselves at the current profitability

random guess based on zero useful information


10T @ 2300w for around $1800

Gonna guess 6.31TH @ 1380W, hopefully in the 5BTC price range!





I think you're absolutely correct on both opinions. Why would they do one or the other?

I wouldn't buy that now.   :D



I am guessing around May 21st.  I believe it will go on sale before the halving because 1) profitability calculators & 2) collecting BTC before it potentially goes "to the moon" after the halving.

^^^^they might ask >$2000, but there will be very few takers considering that you can have the same hash for $1200.
they might want to hit 10K as they probably wanted to get to 5k in S7, but 9.3-9.5 is more realistic for 1400-1450w miner, could even be 8.6Th and 1293w. 1500 is too close for comfort and reduces the US market.

i agree, posted in main thread about this.

I think it will use the same amount of power as before around 1200-1300Watts but be more efficient so 7TH/s.

Release within 2-4 weeks.

Ognasty was right, try to get as much BTC as possible now before the halving.

perhaps, but only batches 1-7 were in that range (1100-1300); later they crept up the power usage.

I like this mindset!

My guess is that it also won't be more efficient then ETH mining currently, unless Bitmain can make it 8TH/s and use less than 1000Watts. But that is almost 0.10W/GHS territory.

My guess:

8TH/s, 1200w. Release ~2 weeks before halving to take advantage of suckers. $1200


What's your point? We're talking bitcoin mining here, not an altcoin. There's a separate forum for that.

I hope not these specs - not much better than S7 and 5 times more expensive. Although batch 1 might be horrible as usual.

I thought it was going to turn out to be trolls on this.  But if they are getting official accounts... that changes my mind.  I have no idea what to expect though.  I think design wise will be like S7 with 3 hashing boards.  But specs.. who knows.

I would be willing to guess we are looking at 0.09W/GHs ATW efficiency, 14TH/s and around $1900.

I would love that, perhaps would even buy batch 3 or 4. Bitmain tends to improve power consumption by 30-40% with each generation. Going down by 70% (0.30W -> 0.09W) would surprise me.

BM is constrained.

Back of the envelope:

9 TH/s

1300W

2.6 BTC

1) 1300W with a useful tolerance means a 125V 15A receptacle can be used.

2) 9 TH/s is a minimum.

3) 2.6 BTC is a maximum



Depending on your opinion of ETH, 2) and 3) can be influenced by ETH mining.

Efficiency figure is pure speculation based on an exponential formula I worked up in Sept '14, but so far one of them has been relatively close to predict S5 and S7 efficiency. As for pricing, it's a complete shot in the dark.  You never know with BMT...

I can't imagine they would change their form factor for this generation, after the success of the S5+ and S7.

It will most probably have to still be profitable despite the coming halving, so I'd say 8-9 TH/s with a $1.3k price tag. Maybe super efficient, 0.075w a gh? (Hopefullness)

S9... Well here's the conundrum

1. bitmain will have to recoup their development costs and if developing tech is like cars its gets exponentially more expensive the more you ahem go faster i.e efficient.
2. the halving... if we assume the jump from 400ph to 1500ph is due to 80% S7's then we can only really expect a 400ph drop
if that on the network hash rate...
3. their efficiency will have to be amazing for them to feasibly sell S9 at current BTC price...

now their underlying reasons are based on current BTC price not changing... if the BTC price changes up enough well then what ive said is a bunch of poo.

Truly I dont think bitmain knows what to price the S7 at it really all depends on BTC price

the gems might be in the second hand market of S7's IMO or even new S7's... we might even get to see $150 S7 price or lower lol which i doubt

well  they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

  So under 1400 watts use the 10 pcie cables

the newest s-7 does 4.7th    so 2x that is 9.4 

the newest s-7 does  1350 watts  at the wall


so 9.4  at 1350 watts is a decent guess  that would be  0.143 watts  a gh

They have a bit incentive to   keep watts over 1350 at the wall as that kind of knocks out the evga 1300g2 as a psu  which means they sell more of their psus.

I suspect  that if they could make a .075 watt machine  they would use it in house and sell us a .14 watt machine.

I for one would buy a 9.4th machine  using 1350 watts and put it in the solar array If it was 1000 it would be too cheap if it comes out soon enough.

So I guess 10th 1350 watts  for     1500  which is the typical over price point.   But I would need the machine fast to buy it. Since the 1/2ing is on the way.

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

If I can order one on the 21st of may I will.

i'm going to guess not much of a hash rate increase.  So 6-7th, but for 1000w.  I'm just taking my speculation from the new graphic cards which are coming out, which a little faster, but mostly more power efficient.  i'm guessing its the same, so a little faster, and less power.  Makes sense with the halving too - s7 will be unprofitable soon after the halving if the market is flooded with new 14/16nm tech.

S7 was "launched" in August and I got my Batch 1 in October (some lucky buyers got theirs in September).

I doubt the S9 will be available for immediate delivery.

S7 Power Consumption: 1293W + 10% (at the wall, with APW3, 93% efficiency, 25C ambient temp)

aka 1422w at the wall at a low ambient temperature


If they plan on selling the same PSUs for the new generation I cant honestly see them going past this number as 1430w is already close to 90% load on the PSU and you certainly dont want to run a PSU at its max rating full time.

I wouldn't trust some random guy that is probably a scammer.

Sharif is a sales guy for Bitmain, he speaks english, chinese, russian. He was helpful when I purchased my lot of S7-F1!

If they take orders on May 22  the soonest it get to usa is June 10th gives you about 5 weeks using it before the ½ ing sweeps in and bitch slaps us miners.

Agreed. But I would add that they probably don't want to release a design that would force any significant changes to their existing data center infrastructure.

Therefore the S9 will likely be a drop-in replacement for the S7. In addition to not overtaxing their existing PSUs and not requiring new cabling, it will likely be the same form factor. If true, that would be good news for those of us who already have a PSU infrastructure geared towards S7s.

I have no doubt that Bitmain will try to offer sales in May so that they can cut BW off at the pass. I think that BW said that they won't offer their 14 nm miners till June. But I wouldn't be surprised if that slips past the halving, well after they've sucked out all the sweet pre-halving difficulty that they can.

Regardless, BW's publicly announced plans offer Bitmain another opportunity to pounce and conquer, if they can execute well. Not clear if they will compete on efficiency or cost. Although I suspect that Bitmain doesn't have a smaller nanometer process ready to go. That would suggest that probably trying for another efficiency gain with the existing process, as they did with the S7.

This would further suggest that they can dramatically undercut BW's prices and still be profitable, so it might be wise to not buy the first batch of S9s (as if it's ever a good idea to be the first penguin off the ice flow in this market; my B1 S7s definitely got eaten by the killer whale called "difficulty").

The main open questions are how efficient will the S9 actually be, and what will it cost? Although whatever it costs, it will be too much ;)

How do you figure that? I mean if it's immediate delivery then it would get there within a week, but if it's a pre-order then it can be any lead time, about a month or more based on past performance (e.g. S3 and S7).


I think the same was said about S5 and S7 yet both miners ended up significantly different from their predecessors. The only constraint now is that they are approaching the limit of 15A household circuits in North America (~1450W or so) if they care about that.


I wonder if the S9 is really going to be a 14-16nm miner. Can Bitmain attempt to squeeze some efficiency out of their current chips? According to the BM1385 datasheet power consumption can go down by about 30% with undervolting.

You could be right. But Bitmain is a huge consumer of its own products. I doubt they'd release a product that causes themselves an expensive infrastructure reset. More likely would be that they will evolve from their current PSUs and data center power capacity to something new over time.


That really is the big question. On the one hand, I'd love to see a smaller process chip make it to market. On the other hand, no one has really done this.

Bitfury hasn't delivered anything. BW seems close, but since they've been consuming their own products and not offering them for sale, no one outside of their company really knows what they have. All we know is what their press releases say.

If Bitmain has 14-16nm chip based miner for sale before the end of this month, they'll be the first company in the world to pull this off.

again can they do a smaller unit for those that don't want to wast 1300w of electricity

something with the same hash of the s7 but half the consumption would be great, i would maintain my consumption in the 600-700 range for now

but if they do sell a 600 watt miner it would hurt their psu sales.

The last 600W miner that Bitmain supplied was the S5. They haven't tried to do some kind of S7-  or "S7 lite". I think they have lost interest in "down scaling" their miners. I'd love to be proven wrong.  :)

  yeah  I would like a rack setup   with spots for 4 s-9's  and 2 bitmain psus  each use 700 watts

So you buy a

 1 rack
 1 s-9    5th using 700 watts
 1 psu   

 1 rack
 2 s-9  10 th using 1400 watts
 1 psu

 1 rack
 3 s-9  15 th using 2100 watts
 2 psu

 1 rack
 4 s-9 20 th using 2800 watts
 2 psu

I am confused. How is it a waste of 1300 watts? The wattage used is directly related to the hashing speed. Having a smaller slower miner doesnt make sense to me. If they are smaller it just means you need more of them to hash at the same speed as a larger unit would run at. The whole point of running the miners is to make a profit and breaking them down into smaller units will increase operating costs.

I believe use 1300 watts for mining  would be more what he means.

He could be in a space that has 5 to 6 kwatts of power  lets say a small apartment.
He wants to mine in house  with 600 to 700 watts, 1300 watts.


I found that to mine in my home both s-7 and s-5 need to be down clocked due to sound issues.
I have the power with 2 added 240 volt circuits but the noise is high.

Aslo he could eth coin mine and at the moment  it is a better deal.  So spending power on an s-9 or an eth rig  may make him think he wasted power mining the s-9 since eth coin pays better.

I now spend 975 watts in house on an avalon6 and 1400 watts in house on eth coins.

When summer power price starts on June 1 I will turn the avalon 6 off. As it will no longer pay for power cost.

Ya I guess I just dont really look at it from the home mining side as there is no profit to be had that way. Noise, high electric costs, and limited incoming power all to me scream "dont bother" at home.

But all of you missed the IMPORTANT part of that post.

 Is that picture really Iz, or is it just a picture of some random pretty lady?

 9-)




 BitMain doesn't care about maxing efficiency on their chips - never has. They want to max their profits, so their recent batches with fewer chips per miner actually make THEM more money, as long as they can sell enough of them.
 
I was VERY suprised when the initial batches did NOT come out running the BM1385 at .8 volts per chip or close, they actually set them at the mid-point (more or less) of the specified operating range.
 Later batches corrected that "oversight", or they might have figured out that the chip actually does NOT work reliably at the lower voltage figures of it's specs in a real-world string situation....

Please read this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1472058.new#new

THere is no ETA on Ant S9 release to public!

I still think it will be in the next week or so

summer to autumn is my opinion.
and not a huge improvement over s7

End of May

I am with the both of you!  End of May.

They are starting to ship the last batch of S7s on May 23. I would think it's unlikely to have S9 available at the same time (logistically) and probably they wouldn't want an announcement to affect S7 sales unless that last batch sells out sooner.

well no one knows how many s-7s they have left

this is one of their big holding addresses

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

shows about 130 s-7's sold from 5-11 to now

I'm going to take a long shot of 8Th/s and a starting price of close to $2,000.

If not 8Th/s Then maybe something like 10Th/s and costing around BTC4.5-5 possibly 6 depending on the power efficiency

They haven't even started to sell "used S7" units ouf of their own farm.

 Therefore, any expectation of a "May" avaibility date for anything other than a PREorder is insane, and June is much more likely to be the soonest they'd even start taking orders - with a July shipping date at the soonest I'd anticipate.


 The recent hashrate climb MIGHT possibly be Bitmain starting to add S9 units to their farm - but it could also be Bitfury-based gear getting built and installed by some of their partners, or Innosilicon partners on A3 based gear, or BW punching anouther round of B-Eleven units into their farm, or some combination of those, or even some factor nobody is considering right now (but I'd bet that factor is NOT Avalon getting 14/16nm chips yet, given their late start on even developing that generation per their announcements).

It will be a preorder Late may. With it arriving in late june

Halving is currently predicted around July 10. Even if something catastrophic happens (three +20% diff jumps, or -20% decreases) the date won't change by more than ~10-12 days either way. If your prediction is true we would get between 0-20 days of mining under the current block reward. Basically the only way I see someone buying the S9 is if (a) the person is very bad at math or (b) the price/efficiency ratio is very good, e.g. within 150% of S7 price per TH/s at half the power draw or smth like that.

And yes, I am a Batch 1 S7 buyer so I know what it means to be (a)  ;D

did some edits that make it sound more like bitmain.
Best Regards
d57heinz

Most likely that is true.

But I have the agenda with the solar array.  So I need to get some of the newer gear as fast as I can.

LOL! You forgot that the compensation will be crappy, and also very late ;)

I was bit by that stupid holiday week shipping delay of 2/3rds of my B1 S7 order. The question is whether I'll be stupid enough to order batch one again. Hopefully this time logic will win over irrationality.

Here's my guess:

• 9.4 THs
• 1300 watts
• $1100
• Accepting orders on June 15th
• Shipping by June 30th

How did I come up with these wacky numbers? First, I figured they'll try to double the output of the S7, shooting for 10 THs but not making it (just like the S7 didn't make it to 5 THs). This assumes they've either got a 16 - 14 nm process chip, or can pull off some last ditch trick (like ASIC-boost) to squeeze more out of their current process.

The power consumption number is because I think they want to keep the per unit consumption similar to what they have now with the S7. Their goal would be to replace the S7 units in their farm with S9s by swapping boxes, rather than adding more power supplies, using more physical space, and increasing the power to their DC.

The price is based on the trend I've noticed from Bitmain where the ROI is generally in excess of 200 days. If I remember, the S7 was around 240 days at 3% difficulty (which was much lower than reality, as we all know). Anyway, for the S9 I projected out 250 days at 3%, then cut the earnings number in half since it's unlikely that any S9 will be in customers' hands and mining before the halving.

Of course, they could just as easily price batch 1 as double that amount hoping people won't factor in the halving. There will almost certainly be a large number of idiots willing to pay that. But if the initial price really ends up being $2200, I won't be one of those idiots this time.

Regarding my guess for availability, they will want to fully deploy S9s in their DC before the halving (or their mining revenue stream is cut in half) and with enough time to work out any kinks in the manufacturing process, and to physically move the S7s out as part of a "used" sale. So let's say they're shooting to be deployed by mid June at the latest. At that point they'd probably have enough confidence to offer them for sale, with a couple of weeks for delivery, because everyone knows that you can do anything in two weeks ;)

Also, I checked for Chinese national holidays around this time. There's a three day holiday on June 9th for the Dragon Boat Festival. I doubt that three days will make much difference either way, especially if they don't start accepting orders until after the festival.

Maybe one way we can possibly verify the above predictions early will be to see if we can spot a sustained hash rate increase of roughly double Bitmain's estimated mining operation sometime in early to mid June. That should be noticeable enough to be visible, and not just variance.

Hopefully Bitfury and BW have already bulked up for the halving. Because if they haven't, then between them and Bitmain the difficulty might very well explode in June.

I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included.  It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.

Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:

1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?

I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).

The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.

Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.

But the potential threat of a fork would matter...

S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.

I agree it is unlikely to have it.  I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though.  Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...

Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost

I guess 8-9 TH/s and 1400 W. Hopefully price tag will not be much expensive.Around 1250$ will be a good deal.

These seem relevant. 
https://twitter.com/olivierjanss/status/731198742968291329
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-threatens-hard-fork-asicboost-mining-optimization/

i would hope for a better efficiency to be honest, 8 tera at 1400w, is not that good compared tot he currently almost 5 for 1200

Very good thought process.  I think the only delaying event would be the sales of the used miners as you have expressed.  Thanks!

This could be a real issue thanks for links.

I'm gona be optimistic and say

1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..

I would add in that the timing will be in conjunction of the sale of used miners.  I am considering a new stance that there may be dual sales:  New S9 and used S7s.  Date of Release of the S9 = 23rd or 24th of May (Next Week).

No - release date is 27th of May

"ldzly Official 2016-05-16 20:45:39

Of course we will publish our S9(Yeppppp , S9 is the name , because in Bitmain"s history, odd number means good luck =antminer beijing hot items in a selling season) which is made of our next generation chips. And we are lack of accurate information when it will release ,before that we need a long term test process to make sure the stable perfomance. So I have no idea where the information of mining sweden form ? also, I dont know why some users choose to believe him instead of inquiry form Bitmain.

have a nice day !"

 Pretty close to my early guess. I've not seen specs on their next chip yet to make any informed guesses though - I was pretty bloody close on the S7 *EXCEPT* I didn't predict they would move to 3 strings/board and 3 boards/miner. There isn't enough space on the board to move to more strings/board - and they might have to move back to 2 if the 14/16nm chips run at low enough voltage. I also doubt they can cram 4 boards AND enough heat sinking into a unit the size of the S7 or even close, and I don't see them changing the form factor a lot due to what kind of BAD effects it would have on their Antmine infrastructure.


 VERY optimistic. I'd guess $2000 ballpark, the new node is a LOT more expensive to develop for and the S7 started out quite a bit higher than that. Also, there won't be any "massively new massively more efficient" gear showing up for a few years, so they can afford to change their "180 day ROI assuming no diff increase price basis" structure to something a bit higher - unless Bitfury beats them to the punch and they have to be competative.


 I suspect those dates are a bit optimistic, doesn't give them much time to liquidate used S7s or ramp up enough S9s to replace THEIR S7s internally before they start selling them to the public. They haven't even announced the CHIP yet, on the BM1385/S7 the chip announcement as I recall was a month or two before they started blowing out used S5s.


 Bitmain announced they were working on a 14 or 16 nm full custom chip design at the same time (and in the same announcement IIRC) as the original S7 announcement.


I doubt they'll have enough built by then.
I would be a LITTLE supprised if they are even deploying the S9 internally in significant quantity by the halfing, given they've not even announced the CHIP yet,

In the name of decentralization I would love to see a 5 TH/s @ 800W for $1k so that people can run it at home with a 1KW PSU. But, I think it's more realistic with around 9 TH/s @ $1500-$2k and @ 13-1500w

I will buy this S9 if there is a PSU integrated into it same as they did with S4.

My guess for the S9 would be somewhere along 10 TH/s and it's price somewhere in $1200 to $1400 region. It will be the most efficient one so a power consumption of 1000W could be their target for this.
The looks of it could be like an S4 body type and the noise would be the most among all the antminer versions.

Or maybe they'll have a couple of options, like a water-cooled system similar to the C1 (I loved that C1. So sad it's sitting on a shelf doing nothing. *sniff*). Or an immersion kit.

I just hope that it does not look like that abomination with enermax PSU attached on top.

Buying a miner now is really a big risk with the halving approaching so soon, I would wait for after the halving to see how the difficulty is affected and the price of bitcoin, I'm sure Antminer will wait until after the halving because they know a lot of people are probably thinking this as well.  Although just last year BTC was at like $230 so who knows maybe the halving has already been factored into the Bitcoin price.

It is a quite a risk to buy a miner now - but thinking about lost profit...

there is no lost profit until you reach roi, and roi on new equipment is usually ery high

now think about those that bought the s7 early, at the unbelievable price of 8 btc at that time, they are still trying to reach roi

the same will happen with the s9 the s11 etc...nothing will change

And from NewEgg pricing on that Enermax (I've NOT had good luck with their power supplies, 50% fail rate while in warrenttee though fairly small sample size) they could have gone for an EVGA or Seasonic with near-Platinum efficiency and a MUCH better track record on longevity for about the same price.

This was in their s-2.

They must have a connection with the company.

I would buy that s-7 lite with a no psu option and add a titanium 800 watt from silverstone.

Then down clock it just a bit. Then put it in my friends office for free power.

roi on B1 S7 in btc is close to being impossible (unless you sold for btc sometime ago), much better in $.

I purchased my coins from coinbase and then purchased my batch 1.

I live in USA  so legally I need to use cash basis.  My batch 1 made a cash profit.
I would have been better off holding the coins as they 2x the price I paid for them.

But I also purchase a lot of bitmain contracts with 230 btc  that  when they matured they paid in btc that rose to 450-500.

I have no complaints about my batch 1 in terms of profit.  It was an under hasher that  was compensated for on May of this year after complaining since Oct 15 or so.

I spent my hard-earned BTC on Batch 1 and it still hurts. Anyway, lesson learned, luckily I didn't go all in with the S7, and I'm not repeating this mistake with the S9.

The S7 should of ROI by now. with USD

Look at my analysis thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1477198.0

Your analysis using the basis that everyone has free electricity lol.  Of course if you had free power every miner would ROI, factor into that the 10 cents per kw/h which is average for the United States and there will be no ROI lol

I made the same mistake. My only out was to sell off my S7s and the earned BTC to realize a fiat profit. But that was only possible because BTC nearly doubled in value.

It would have been a much better investment to just to buy BTC, speculating on price, instead of buying S7s, speculating on difficulty.

Like you, I won't make this mistake again. I'm already assuming that the S9 will be insanely priced. In which case I'll hang on to my crappy Scrypt ASICs just to keep my hand in. They're paid for and with the relatively flat Scrypt difficulty will continue to profit because they don't care about the BTC halving.

The only current worry about Scrypt-based coins is the expected large difficulty ramp-up when the A4 starts selling this summer.
 Main question comes down to "how much will it cost" and the resulting "how many will they manage to sell over the first few months".
 My A2s haven't hit ROI yet - but I'm fairly comfortable that they WILL manage it, expecially after I move to a land of VERY VERY cheap electric over the next couple months (barring disasters).

 As far as the S7 ROI - in my case, with slightly LOWER than average electric, no S7 batch would have ever managed to achieve ROI for me. The FIRST batch came the closest, but only due to the big Bitcoin price runup last winter - and even WITH that factor, I'd still be pretty far in the hole.

 Folks with VERY VERY cheap electric (under 5c/KWH) might have managed to ROI their S7s without having to sell them off, but I really don't feel comfortable being FORCED to count on selling off miners while they're still at least marginally profitable to achieve ROI. I came VERY close to taking a batch on my S5s + SP20 'cause of that, if I'd waited even 2 more WEEKS to sell them I'd have lost money on them (and as it is, I BARELY broke even on them and GETTING some of them sold was a bit of a nightmare).

This is probably nonsense, but someone on OpenBazaar is offering an S9:

http://bazaarbay.org/17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee

They claim:

BITMAIN ANTMINER S9 Batch 1 with 9.63th/s
Shipping from 26th May 2016
Price per unit   4.8BTC

It's probably a scam. But I'm posting it here on the off chance that it turns out to be accurate.

Yeah, that price is NONSENSE.
9.6 is the same as 4.8 before halving, maybe even less considering possible delays for S9 vs S7 availability.
A dud for more than $1000, and even that is a ridiculous price.
Anything more and i will simply laugh at it all, while walking away.
$600-750 is more like it.

 Bitmain doesn't sell on OpenBazar.
 I doubt they'd be inclined to do so with the S9.
 I'm betting "scam" as well, though I'm NOT betting the price and specs they came up with are way off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

apart from the fact that the front of that page look very fishy and shady, where is the consumption?

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

where you are getting these numbers?

If shipped on May 26 and you get it on june 1, 9.6 th 1200 w, 0.1 electrical cost miner produces $387 worth of bitcoin (at current prices) with $115 power cost=$272 net before halving.
After halving, it starts producing just $4.43 a day with 2.88 electrical costs=$1.55/day net (without taking into consideration difficulty rise between now and then which would probably make net=0). Therefore,  $500-600/ 9.6 Th S9 is most reasonable.
The only way it would work IF BTC price rises to $700-900, but IF you have to bet on that, you would be just speculating on price.

I think you are right about what makes sense for the buyer but the two users above are talking about what makes sense for Bitmain. And Batch 1 is very likely to be priced by the latter. $150 or more per TH/s would be my guess, considering that the S7 is still ~$100 per TH/s.

well at 150 a th it would be  1500 for 10th  coins are dropping about 440  so 3.4 coins = close to 1500.

that I could see.  but no way will it be 5 btc.

The only reason S7 is still $450 is because it can mine at least $200 before halving.
yeah, they can price S9 at what you imply, but sane people will not buy, hopefully, unless they have a bonus of two r9 390 for free, LOL.

Most likely they will price it high, and after low sale numbers they will reduce the price.

They might not have other  ASIC competition but ETH is their competition right now and they will have a hard time beating it.

Except ETH is not competing with bitcoin. You guys really gotta stop looking at things from the at home miner perspective when discussing hardware because that is not how the companies look at it.

One of the largest BTC mining farms (BitPay or something similar) is actually expanding with GPUs.

Nobody cares whether its BTC or ETH or Chicken Feet, all everybody cares about is what will make them the most money. Its common sense.

That is the reason why I am looking at GPU cards instead of S7 or S9 as you can expand it if you like but with asic miners you are confined within the units themselves.

So because a couple mines are trying to make a quick buck on ETH its all of a sudden a direct competitor? Flawed logic is flawed.

People go where there is money to be made.

You are 100% correct that:

 Flawed logic is flawed.

But for more then 120 days  Eth mining is better to mine then btc and eth coin has over a 1 billion dollar market cap.


So " wait and see" might be a better choice for you to say.

You keep pointing to its market cap like that is a real number. If anyone tries to sell a substantial amount of ETH the price would tank and everyone would be looking for the next get rich quick coin. I mean sure the price is artificially inflated right now because everyone is so afraid of the halving but do you really think it can sustain its growth at anywhere near the recent rates in the long term? Personally I have severe doubts.

the dynamic between eth coin and btc is different.

mostly due to the coming ½ ing.

I have 1 foot in the eth camp and 1 foot in the btc camp.

I am positioned to stay in both camps.
Not because I want to but it makes sense to me.
I can sell my pc's to gamers at good prices.
I build 2 card rigs .
I have a bail out on them and I can put the sales cash into btc.

I don't have a bailout on btc it the ½ ing crashes stuff.

But I do  see
 1 bill eth
 6.8 bill btc


I see about 100,000 r 390s mining eth  cost for just the r9 390s = 30 million usd   you still have a pc and a gpu after the crash


I see about 300,000 s-7's mining  btc   cost for just the s-7's     = 150 million usd.  you don't have much after the crash

I am a 2-6kwatt miner in house  cost $$$
I have access to 15kwatts free in the solar array and my friends office.   I get ½ the coins.
I may get access to 6kwatts at 8 cents in the Brooklyn navy yard.    I get ½ the coins.

I know a hundred guys like me.  We are all doing some eth coin.  Mostly we want to mine.   Most of us are not going to buy an s-7 it will be out of date for us in a minute.

So do guys like me jump into eth and no s-9  some will  go all eth coin some will go all  btc.  Some will do what I do.  both.

I know that if they sell the s-9 I am getting at least one or two for the array.

Point is very well taken!

Choo chooo (i'm into the hype train!... just posting to stay into the loop)

hashnest recently stopped paying people, anyone know anything about that?
Since antminer is their product just wanted to see if they gone scam?

This is certainly off-topic here. Hashnest thread this way: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=766448.0

For home miners the last few months, BTC has been no competition at all to ETH.

 For the big farms, it's a lot more complicated - but I'd bet at least a FEW of them are doing SOME ETH mining.

 
 The big questions still remain though. When will there be an S9, what will it cost, how much hash will it do, how efficient will it be, and will it continue to be string-design unadjustable (by practical means) efficiency or will it go user-settable efficiency / max hashspeed tradeoff?


 Oh, wait, I see six sigma certainty it won't be adjustable-efficiency - so one less question to worry about!

I think the new s-7 lite is what it will be like.

So a built in psu that I do not need.  two blades 90 chips.

Maybe 5-6 th. and 700 watts.

I also think they are not going to sell it very soon.
So maybe a presale on June 14th with it being delivered on July 14th .
I think holding back on it will be a reaction to both the. 1/2 ing and the ETH coin surge.

Indeed, right before halving there might be much lower demand for the S9, so better wait after halving when the uncentairnity settles - at least for me to ever consider buying it.

I dont think altcoin mining has any effect at all on the S9 though, especially the ETH is just hyped in my opinion and the future price and mining profitability is very uncertain.

Eth coin  is bigger then all other altcoins combined

https://coinmarketcap.com/


634 Currencies / 57 Assets / 2005 Markets

Market Cap: $8756437939 / 24h Vol: $90154394 / BTC Dominance: 78.9%

1   Bitcoin        $ 6,902,431,113   $ 443.38   15,567,825 BTC   $ 51,623,200   -0.11 %   
2   Ethereum    $ 1,073,601,720   $ 13.38   80,241,690 ETH   $ 30,601,200   -3.14 %



all other coins  from 3 to 643 are worth $ 780,405,106

All coins         = $ 8,756,437,939
    BTC           = $ 6,902,431,113
    ETH           = $ 1,073,601,720
 Rest of them = $    780,405,106


  So ETH is a solid number 2.

I can't make the mistake of thinking it will crash and burn.
I can't make the mistake of thinking it will not crash and burn.

So I am middling or straddling both at the moment.

This makes me hesitant to get an s-9 if it were available.  ( I know I would get 1 right now, but no more)

Sound advice, been looking forward to next-gen tech and I find myself in the same boat. Time to diversify and finish up my GPU rig before I go buying more than 1 or 2 s9's

Surely ETH is on the wave right now, and mining ETH is more profitable than mining Bitcoins. The GPU can be resold without much loss if ETH price goes down or difficulty up too much and there is no other profitable altcoin to mine. So better deal now, but hard to say what happens in few months. BTW I remember the ETH price ten times lower not so long ago, so the ETH hype may as well end or the ride continue much longer - who knows, but as a miner I enojoy the ETH  profitability now, though I dont expect it last very long...

ETH is definitely number 2 for now, but I wouldn't bet on the "solid" part.


 S9 gonna have to be a wonder machine - IF it shows up soon - to compete with ETH mining.

 If it doesn't show up for a few months, it might have a lot less competition - despite the halfing.

Bitmain will release just for the halving (maybe somewhere june) so they can cash out most of the profit themself an let the fanboys take the loss. This is the exact reason why I've stopped buying bitmain products now.

Judging by a huge burst in network speed, they are deploying S9 right now for "testing" and will announce pretty soon and release in 1-4 weeks, in my opinion.

If that's the case, then that lends credence to the idea that the S9 has at least double the hash rate for the same power utilization.

The assumption I'm making is that they are replacing S7s with S9s, and that they don't have enough spare data center headroom to power up S9s separately. At least not enough to be noticeable.

Good to know this. That is what forum should be for. To give us some facts so to make a decision for our selves if we should buy these or not.

It's easy to calculate: Suppose BTM releases a 10th/s speed S9 for $1500-$2000 in about 4 weeks, that would give you about 20 days of 25BTC/block mining, and then it would produce the same as an S7, so you would get about $300 month 1 and the you need 10-14 months to get back whatever you spent on it... IF difficulty either doesn't skyrockets or BTC price doesn't falls.

Although i said before this is a "hype" train i would compare it better with the Snowpiercer: a Doomsday train driving us nowhere but to our extinction.

I predict that S9 will be released this Friday (Peking time - morning)

The huge spike in last 2 days shows one should be really very concerned whether you can make profit with the new S9, if really the price is going to be around $200 per every 1 th/s.

You don't have to pay a crazy price. I surely won't.

@chiguireitor nice analogy...well, they had a few survivors at the end and snow was going away.
Actually, if btc fails it would mean that either Satoshi's idea of decreasing reward was nuts OR that market cannot adjust rapidly enough to such conditions.
If difficulty increases 50% by halving and price stays the same, S7 will be nonviable for almost everyone, but the lowest cost people and S9 should cost close to $600-700.
I guess it means that much less people would mine.
Honestly, i think that bitcoin dev need to think about transitioning to POS.  

I think we need a two coin system  one that is asic free and rides on btc .

The Gpu driven coin is designed to shut down if and when an asic is built for it.
The regular person anywhere in the world can run it a bit or a lot on pc's with gpus.
Quiet and low power it it is a 2 card or 1 card rig.

take the coin and keep some trade some into btc and cash some.

Leave btc to the big ass farms in china.

I have a good power deal  but not a lot of it. I can run the avalon 6's till they drop and slowly add s-9's or avalon 7's to replace them. most people cannot do this.

I don't get the "there has to be a coin that can be mined at home" argument. There is absolutely no part of a successful crypto that depends on some form of mining-democracy. There are tons of coins out there, but my bet is that Bitcoin is the only one with long lasting value.

Well at the end of the line, we can see only a few select locations actually mining (if they stop selling miners to people for example).  thats not good for the network.  decentralization is a huge part of crypto.  that implies many people in many locations doing their part to secure the network and make it work (nodes too).  my2cents

-removed for privacy-

I have found in my time here that the forum regulars absolutely cannot wrap their head around the fact that mining BTC at home is in the past and they are fighting a losing battle. They think "the hardware manufacturers MUST cater to the home market and if they dont they are terrible terrible companies". The truth of it is at this point every home miner in the world could shut their machines down and there wouldnt even be a hiccup in the network.

They also seem to think every bitcoin data center is in China and they all run off this mythical cheap power you cannot get anywhere else in the world. Off the top of my head I can name 4-5 states in the US alone where you can get power under $0.04/kwh (No im not talking about residential rates because they dont matter.)

We will see with LISK if the whole "there needs to be a home minable coin"

Will LISK fail because its not POW ?

 Washington, in 3 counties, but Grant county you have to be an industrial-level user to get into the relevant tariffs - you can get fairly close as a home miner though, 4.something all up as I recall.

 Where are the other alleged "under 4c/KWH" locations? Are you CERTAIN you are including ALL of the relevant charges?

 For example, where I live in an Alliant Energy service area, my current base rate at my usage level is just a little over 3 cents/KWH - but once I add in the "Regional Transmission Fee" and the "Fuel Surcharge", my last bill put me a bit OVER 8c/KWH all up - though I've usually this past winter been more like 7.5ish.

I am with you on this prediction!  FRIDAY!

This german bitcoin blogging site has some coverage: https://bitcoinblog.de/2016/05/24/neue-miner-ausgeliefert-hashrate-explodiert/ (https://bitcoinblog.de/2016/05/24/neue-miner-ausgeliefert-hashrate-explodiert/)

Deal then!

Have you seen this:

Price is 4.8 BTC on OpenBazaar!

ob://17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee (http://ob://17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee)

This (or something like this) was posted here earlier and was considered a scam. Don't trust any such "sales" and buy only from Bitmain when Bitmain officially announces it.

I killed the link ,  but if it really 9.6 th at 1350 watt  and it  is 4.8 btc  it is not worth it.

Nothing breathtaking, but I found this:

https://cn.linkedin.com/in/%E5%B8%85-%E6%9D%A8-a91b8091/en

There's no way for us to know if this is a leak of real information, or if it's just straight up fiction.

Even if the specs are accurate, the price could be way off. All the mining hardware on OB that I've looked at is overpriced.

Either way it would be crazy to buy an unannounced piece of hardware from some anonymous person on OB.

I would trust the LinkedIn page more and "BM1386" makes more sense than "BM1396", so at least that part is fiction I think.

Just copied S7 later batches description.

1) No way to cool down 1350W with 1 fan securely. Bitmain already reverted back to 2 fan system.
2) S7 design is based on 3 hash boards with 3 stricgs of chips each, so number of chips is always dividable by number 9.
3) It is possible to use 2 strip design, but it needs completely different heatsink configuration to cool down 1350W from less chips. Supply voltage would be 0.55V per chip, which I belive is not possible at 800MHz with BM design. Let us see if yes.

My guess is 135 chips (same design as later batches of S7) and increased chip speed with the same power, so my guess is 40% speed increase which corresponds to about 6.6 to 7THs per S9 and efficiency about 0.16-0.18 +10%.

Those who bet Friday as the release date, will know very soon..

Yes we will :)

It's now a little after 8 AM Friday in China. No changes on the Bitmain site yet.

there won't be anything new today.
enjoy your s7

From bitmain's facebook page:


This relates directly to the offer on OpenBazaar I've posted a few days ago!  :(

Scheisse!

Ok - next Friday then :)

Bitmain already confirmed that final speed is not yet determined, but S9 is under testing now, so I think they are just binning batches and considering setting price/speed/efficiency. I belive S9 will be within two weeks. Just note that Hashnest lowered S7 price to the same level as public sale price. This might be sign of "stock clearence".

So the big thing from Bitmain today is the crap ass 2.7t s7 with the cheap PSU. What a let down.

have you checked this mates? https://shop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020160525104147645CqK8jJc50678

Its been linked before but it gives zero information other than a random hash speed listed. I would take it with a grain of salt until more info comes out.

Yes, while a 14TH speed is interesting, without a date, price, or power consumption figure it an utterly useless number. There's nothing that says the 14TH figure won't change before it becomes "real". Whoever started to fill in that web page probably could have had some fun by putting in a 25TH figure and really get a buzz going.....  :)

Bitmainers aren't known for their sense of humor so if this is a prank it's quite surprising. Gotta love the weight too, 1kg, shipping costs will be awesome  ;D

Besides the R1 and "U series (i.e. USB centric)" miners, has Bitmain ever produced a miner that was 1Kg? I agree that seems really light. I'll bet it's just a "place holder" for now.

Of course, maybe the S9 is just a "Cloud Mining" certificate!!!  :) :) :)

In this case it's casted of solid piece of stainless steel :)

 A GOOD fan and a GOOD heatsink setup, it certainly IS possible.
 A dual-fan push-pull design does NOT increase airflow much, unless the flow path is VERY restrictive.

A-la hashlet? Don't start giving them those terrible ideas.... yeez :D

According to the Poloniex Trolltalk apparently the S9 is already released but only to the Chinese market.

Then the Chinese site of bitmaintech should have a link

 ::)  ::)Hopefully you don't believe everything you read in the trollbox

Just kidding

Another s7 model is out.
ANTMINER S7 BATCH 18 with 2 fans - Shipped out from June 2nd. https://enshop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=000201605290908457178P0E046905D2

They priced it almost as the last batch probably because BTC went up slightly. They are trying to get every single dollar they can.

Yup. Bitmain is consistent where it comes to profit...

I have a very bad feeling about the S9. Based on recent releases, it will certainly be overpriced. And as the dominant force in mining hardware, everyone and his mother is going to buy S9s so the difficulty is going to skyrocket. It will be the S7 all over again, only worse because of the halving.

With the overpriced S7 the only saving grace was that BTC doubled in price. Assuming a similarly overpriced S9 that also creams the difficulty like crazy, then this time BTC will have to quadruple due to the halving just to keep up.

Yes, Bitcoin has been going up a lot recently and that's good. But if your mining profit is absolutely dependent on the price going up dramatically, then why buy overpriced hardware and fund Bitmain's further dominance?

It's a bummer, but unless things go differently this time I'm probably out of the Bitcoin mining game. I'll just keep what I've been doing, namely buying BTC over time (using Bitwage because I'm lazy) and hanging on to old Scrypt ASICs just to keep my hand in.

Not that my behavior matters. For every one of me there are plenty of others who are desperate to own magic money making machines, against all odds or sense.

It is not what it used to be. The margins were better for,the little guy.

I am a little guy but the solar array does give me cheap power.

Just not as much as I want.


Yeah I see,one,or,two,s-9s in the,future of the array.  But I may not rush to,buy,them.

Not much,fun,to,be,a miner,of btc.

ETH coin may keep things going for,a  while I wonder if it will keep going for a few months or for a year or more.

All these new S7 Batchs for sale... makes me wonder if they are just trying to sell off their used S7 machines that they were mining with as they replace their own farms with the the new S9 miners.  "refurb" the used S7, clean them up, maybe make a few slight cost effective modifications here and there .. and sell it as a "new batch" just to get rid of the S7 they were mining with?

I mean, what has really changed in these last two batches? went back two fans? anything else?

I wont hijack this thread but i'm very interested on specs you re using for your solar array as i'm starting to seriously ponder about it. Is there any topic you can point me @ or willingly to share your experience?
~RR

there are 6000 units of used/ refurb S7 -single fan on sales @ their CN site for 0.833 BTC
https://enshop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020160519101458311rI3i5GoH067A (https://enshop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020160519101458311rI3i5GoH067A)

Well, dang.

 S9 release in early July looks fairly likely now.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1369207.0


forum member       buysolar     built it   so he has much more knowledge of it then me.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=95512



Back to thread  so they have 6000 units of s-7 to sell  that is 28.3 ph.  What is btc at the moment  535 usd I think.

  They will have a lot of trouble selling it.  that is 445 usd  for a unit

Why is it the same price as the new unit with 2 fans?

I think it is just a conversion error.
They have local BTC price of 3685 at Huobi, so 2900 CNY is 0.787 BTC, not 0.848

No longer S9 Speculation .... https://enshop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

16nm - 14THs - 1375w - $2100

Bitmain's thread for the S9:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493601.0

I ordered one  a few minutes ago.

Do I win the cookie? under-shot by $200, but that was before the price hike of BTC.

I've got a few coming.

I don't see how this can be profitable unless Bitcoin fiat price continues on it's upward trajectory.  This is not the gift that was the S3.

I put it in a calculator, if your electricity price is $0.2, the electricity cost is $6.7, the revenue is 18.3, the profit is 11.6. So difficult to ROI after halving.

S9 now in pre-order on bitmain site. Price:       2100 USD 14TH We have just over 1 month and 4 days for halving, is going to be tough this will make RIO in a good time manner first few weeks mining with it will make about 0.7 to 0.8 BTC for 3 weeks mining then 1 month at 0.9 BTC after the halving. So that's 2 months month without any change in diff. Going to take at least 6 to 8 months to RIO and even then going to be tough to make in that time with diff jumps market price. Nice kit tho shame BTC is not higher in price and diff lower but meh mining's mining.

Don't forget that the last generation S7 Batch 1 shipped a MONTH late.  I'm still furious about that, as well as a B1 S7 that caught fire and was returned for warranty, only to be lost and never replaced.  >:(

I ordered about 18-19 s-7's most were for a few clients.

 got 2 s-7  batch  1s really fast   but one was the dud.   Which after 9 months of complaints I was comped the proper amonnt  for it.

My best s-7 was a batch 2 that cam late but was and still is a true star.   runs at freq 625  does 5100 gh with 0.0001 error rate and if I run it at the 575 rating it does .248 watts a gh. truly the best s-7 I got.

the others were meh. I was one of the few people to get the s-1s on time.  But I ordered in the first 10 minutes of sales.

For me  the solar array is great longterm stable cheap power but we face a  8,800-10,000 watt cap.  It is close to free power from now on.  Startup cost were borne by buysolar.  Miner cost by me.

What does it all mean for me I need efficient gear since the free power has a limit.

we ordered 2 units of s-9   and are selling off all the older miners.  I think we will not get the third and fourth s-9's until  late July.

 Just hold  the sale proceeds from the avalon6's s-7's sp20s' and s-5s.

S9 is sold out

That was quick. How many did they sell?

not many batch was small.   I did some stats on the btc addy


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg15033112#msg15033112

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

Hmm, I lose - I NEVER expected the S9 to ship this early.

 On the otehr hand, that price is WAY high.
 Looks like I'm going with other options for a while, waiting for the inevetible price drop once competition shows up.


 The REAL loser might be Bitfury - they SHOULD have been first out of the gate on this generation, but now looks like they're going to be second at best....

Well OP was party right.



It's too expensive and they did wait a long time to 'test their miner'.
There is no way you get ROI though which was to be expected too. With Bitmain having a monopoly on asic miners, it's safe to say home mining is definitely dead.

Give it 2/3 months and you will see the only miners who can mine with profit are the manufacturer themself. Home miners/ semi large miners will not be able to continue their mining operations anymore.

I agree with the price is too high. The Bitfury might already have its miners in its own farms for many  weeks.