AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though

[philipma1957]

And from NewEgg pricing on that Enermax (I've NOT had good luck with their power supplies, 50% fail rate while in warrenttee though fairly small sample size) they could have gone for an EVGA or Seasonic with near-Platinum efficiency and a MUCH better track record on longevity for about the same price.

This was in their s-2.

They must have a connection with the company.

I would buy that s-7 lite with a no psu option and add a titanium 800 watt from silverstone.

Then down clock it just a bit. Then put it in my friends office for free power.

[Biodom]

Buying a miner now is really a big risk with the halving approaching so soon, I would wait for after the halving to see how the difficulty is affected and the price of bitcoin, I'm sure Antminer will wait until after the halving because they know a lot of people are probably thinking this as well.  Although just last year BTC was at like $230 so who knows maybe the halving has already been factored into the Bitcoin price.

It is a quite a rist to buy a miner now - but thinking about lost profit...

there is no lost profit until you reach roi, and roi on new equipment is usually ery high

now think about those that bought the s7 early, at the unbelievable price of 8 btc at that time, they are still trying to reach roi

the same will happen with the s9 the s11 etc...nothing will change

roi on B1 S7 in btc is close to being impossible (unless you sold for btc sometime ago), much better in $.

[philipma1957]

I purchased my coins from coinbase and then purchased my batch 1.

I live in USA  so legally I need to use cash basis.  My batch 1 made a cash profit.
I would have been better off holding the coins as they 2x the price I paid for them.

But I also purchase a lot of bitmain contracts with 230 btc  that  when they matured they paid in btc that rose to 450-500.

I have no complaints about my batch 1 in terms of profit.  It was an under hasher that  was compensated for on May of this year after complaining since Oct 15 or so.

[suchmoon]

I purchased my coins from coinbase and then purchased my batch 1.

I live in USA  so legally I need to use cash basis.  My batch 1 made a cash profit.
I would have been better off holding the coins as they 2x the price I paid for them.

But I also purchase a lot of bitmain contracts with 230 btc  that  when they matured they paid in btc that rose to 450-500.

I have no complaints about my batch 1 in terms of profit.  It was an under hasher that  was compensated for on May of this year after complaining since Oct 15 or so.

I spent my hard-earned BTC on Batch 1 and it still hurts. Anyway, lesson learned, luckily I didn't go all in with the S7, and I'm not repeating this mistake with the S9.

[adaseb]

The S7 should of ROI by now. with USD

Look at my analysis thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1477198.0

[Brob12321]

The S7 should of ROI by now. with USD

Look at my analysis thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1477198.0

Your analysis using the basis that everyone has free electricity lol.  Of course if you had free power every miner would ROI, factor into that the 10 cents per kw/h which is average for the United States and there will be no ROI lol

[edonkey]

I purchased my coins from coinbase and then purchased my batch 1.

I live in USA  so legally I need to use cash basis.  My batch 1 made a cash profit.
I would have been better off holding the coins as they 2x the price I paid for them.

But I also purchase a lot of bitmain contracts with 230 btc  that  when they matured they paid in btc that rose to 450-500.

I have no complaints about my batch 1 in terms of profit.  It was an under hasher that  was compensated for on May of this year after complaining since Oct 15 or so.

I spent my hard-earned BTC on Batch 1 and it still hurts. Anyway, lesson learned, luckily I didn't go all in with the S7, and I'm not repeating this mistake with the S9.

I made the same mistake. My only out was to sell off my S7s and the earned BTC to realize a fiat profit. But that was only possible because BTC nearly doubled in value.

It would have been a much better investment to just to buy BTC, speculating on price, instead of buying S7s, speculating on difficulty.

Like you, I won't make this mistake again. I'm already assuming that the S9 will be insanely priced. In which case I'll hang on to my crappy Scrypt ASICs just to keep my hand in. They're paid for and with the relatively flat Scrypt difficulty will continue to profit because they don't care about the BTC halving.

[QuintLeo]

The only current worry about Scrypt-based coins is the expected large difficulty ramp-up when the A4 starts selling this summer.
 Main question comes down to "how much will it cost" and the resulting "how many will they manage to sell over the first few months".
 My A2s haven't hit ROI yet - but I'm fairly comfortable that they WILL manage it, expecially after I move to a land of VERY VERY cheap electric over the next couple months (barring disasters).

 As far as the S7 ROI - in my case, with slightly LOWER than average electric, no S7 batch would have ever managed to achieve ROI for me. The FIRST batch came the closest, but only due to the big Bitcoin price runup last winter - and even WITH that factor, I'd still be pretty far in the hole.

 Folks with VERY VERY cheap electric (under 5c/KWH) might have managed to ROI their S7s without having to sell them off, but I really don't feel comfortable being FORCED to count on selling off miners while they're still at least marginally profitable to achieve ROI. I came VERY close to taking a batch on my S5s + SP20 'cause of that, if I'd waited even 2 more WEEKS to sell them I'd have lost money on them (and as it is, I BARELY broke even on them and GETTING some of them sold was a bit of a nightmare).

[edonkey]

This is probably nonsense, but someone on OpenBazaar is offering an S9:

http://bazaarbay.org/17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee

They claim:

BITMAIN ANTMINER S9 Batch 1 with 9.63th/s
Shipping from 26th May 2016
Price per unit   4.8BTC

It's probably a scam. But I'm posting it here on the off chance that it turns out to be accurate.

[Biodom]

This is probably nonsense, but someone on OpenBazaar is offering an S9:

http://bazaarbay.org/17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee

They claim:

BITMAIN ANTMINER S9 Batch 1 with 9.63th/s
Shipping from 26th May 2016
Price per unit   4.8BTC

It's probably a scam. But I'm posting it here on the off chance that it turns out to be accurate.

Yeah, that price is NONSENSE.
9.6 is the same as 4.8 before halving, maybe even less considering possible delays for S9 vs S7 availability.
A dud for more than $1000, and even that is a ridiculous price.
Anything more and i will simply laugh at it all, while walking away.
$600-750 is more like it.

[QuintLeo]

This is probably nonsense, but someone on OpenBazaar is offering an S9:

http://bazaarbay.org/17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee

They claim:

BITMAIN ANTMINER S9 Batch 1 with 9.63th/s
Shipping from 26th May 2016
Price per unit   4.8BTC

It's probably a scam. But I'm posting it here on the off chance that it turns out to be accurate.

 Bitmain doesn't sell on OpenBazar.
 I doubt they'd be inclined to do so with the S9.
 I'm betting "scam" as well, though I'm NOT betting the price and specs they came up with are way off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

[Amph]

This is probably nonsense, but someone on OpenBazaar is offering an S9:

http://bazaarbay.org/17144de3790b134b05a0fca102ff8b8887d08e27/listing/c6bbb66fd2041bde823ad70df9bdb757600aafee

They claim:

BITMAIN ANTMINER S9 Batch 1 with 9.63th/s
Shipping from 26th May 2016
Price per unit   4.8BTC

It's probably a scam. But I'm posting it here on the off chance that it turns out to be accurate.

apart from the fact that the front of that page look very fishy and shady, where is the consumption?

[ps_jb]

off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

[Biodom]

off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

where you are getting these numbers?

If shipped on May 26 and you get it on june 1, 9.6 th 1200 w, 0.1 electrical cost miner produces $387 worth of bitcoin (at current prices) with $115 power cost=$272 net before halving.
After halving, it starts producing just $4.43 a day with 2.88 electrical costs=$1.55/day net (without taking into consideration difficulty rise between now and then which would probably make net=0). Therefore,  $500-600/ 9.6 Th S9 is most reasonable.
The only way it would work IF BTC price rises to $700-900, but IF you have to bet on that, you would be just speculating on price.

[suchmoon]

off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

where you are getting these numbers?

If shipped on May 26 and you get it on june 1, 9.6 th 1200 w, 0.1 electrical cost miner produces $387 worth of bitcoin (at current prices) with $115 power cost=$272 net before halving.
After halving, it starts producing just $4.43 a day with 2.88 electrical costs=$1.55/day net (without taking into consideration difficulty rise between now and then which would probably make net=0). Therefore,  $500-600/ 9.6 Th S9 is most reasonable.
The only way it would work IF BTC price rises to $700-900, but IF you have to bet on that, you would be just speculating on price.

I think you are right about what makes sense for the buyer but the two users above are talking about what makes sense for Bitmain. And Batch 1 is very likely to be priced by the latter. $150 or more per TH/s would be my guess, considering that the S7 is still ~$100 per TH/s.

[philipma1957]

off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

where you are getting these numbers?

If shipped on May 26 and you get it on june 1, 9.6 th 1200 w, 0.1 electrical cost miner produces $387 worth of bitcoin (at current prices) with $115 power cost=$272 net before halving.
After halving, it starts producing just $4.43 a day with 2.88 electrical costs=$1.55/day net (without taking into consideration difficulty rise between now and then which would probably make net=0). Therefore,  $500-600/ 9.6 Th S9 is most reasonable.
The only way it would work IF BTC price rises to $700-900, but IF you have to bet on that, you would be just speculating on price.

I think you are right about what makes sense for the buyer but the two users above are talking about what makes sense for Bitmain. And Batch 1 is very likely to be priced by the latter. $150 or more per TH/s would be my guess, considering that the S7 is still ~$100 per TH/s.

well at 150 a th it would be  1500 for 10th  coins are dropping about 440  so 3.4 coins = close to 1500.

that I could see.  but no way will it be 5 btc.

[Biodom]

off.

 Consider the ORIGINAL price on the S7 - more than $1000 and more likely $1500 ballpark is what I would BET on the S9 starting off at, possibly $2000 if Bitmain beats everyone else to market with an actual for-sale-to-the-public miner.

I agree that initial price can easily be 5BTC for 10THs if Hash will be a monopolist

where you are getting these numbers?

If shipped on May 26 and you get it on june 1, 9.6 th 1200 w, 0.1 electrical cost miner produces $387 worth of bitcoin (at current prices) with $115 power cost=$272 net before halving.
After halving, it starts producing just $4.43 a day with 2.88 electrical costs=$1.55/day net (without taking into consideration difficulty rise between now and then which would probably make net=0). Therefore,  $500-600/ 9.6 Th S9 is most reasonable.
The only way it would work IF BTC price rises to $700-900, but IF you have to bet on that, you would be just speculating on price.

I think you are right about what makes sense for the buyer but the two users above are talking about what makes sense for Bitmain. And Batch 1 is very likely to be priced by the latter. $150 or more per TH/s would be my guess, considering that the S7 is still ~$100 per TH/s.

The only reason S7 is still $450 is because it can mine at least $200 before halving.
yeah, they can price S9 at what you imply, but sane people will not buy, hopefully, unless they have a bonus of two r9 390 for free, LOL.

[adaseb]

Most likely they will price it high, and after low sale numbers they will reduce the price.

They might not have other  ASIC competition but ETH is their competition right now and they will have a hard time beating it.

[fanatic26]

Except ETH is not competing with bitcoin. You guys really gotta stop looking at things from the at home miner perspective when discussing hardware because that is not how the companies look at it.

[adaseb]

Except ETH is not competing with bitcoin. You guys really gotta stop looking at things from the at home miner perspective when discussing hardware because that is not how the companies look at it.

One of the largest BTC mining farms (BitPay or something similar) is actually expanding with GPUs.

Nobody cares whether its BTC or ETH or Chicken Feet, all everybody cares about is what will make them the most money. Its common sense.