AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though

[philipma1957]

I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included.  It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.

Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:

1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?

I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).

The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.

Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.

But the potential threat of a fork would matter...

S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.

I agree it is unlikely to have it.  I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though.  Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...

Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost

[Winoc]

I guess 8-9 TH/s and 1400 W. Hopefully price tag will not be much expensive.Around 1250$ will be a good deal.

[OgNasty]

I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included.  It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.

Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:

1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?

I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).

The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.

Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.

But the potential threat of a fork would matter...

S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.

I agree it is unlikely to have it.  I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though.  Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...

Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost

These seem relevant. 
https://twitter.com/olivierjanss/status/731198742968291329
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-threatens-hard-fork-asicboost-mining-optimization/

[Amph]

I guess 8-9 TH/s and 1400 W. Hopefully price tag will not be much expensive.Around 1250$ will be a good deal.

i would hope for a better efficiency to be honest, 8 tera at 1400w, is not that good compared tot he currently almost 5 for 1200

[AriesIV10]

Here's my guess:

• 9.4 THs
• 1300 watts
• $1100
• Accepting orders on June 15th
• Shipping by June 30th

How did I come up with these wacky numbers? First, I figured they'll try to double the output of the S7, shooting for 10 THs but not making it (just like the S7 didn't make it to 5 THs). This assumes they've either got a 16 - 14 nm process chip, or can pull off some last ditch trick (like ASIC-boost) to squeeze more out of their current process.

The power consumption number is because I think they want to keep the per unit consumption similar to what they have now with the S7. Their goal would be to replace the S7 units in their farm with S9s by swapping boxes, rather than adding more power supplies, using more physical space, and increasing the power to their DC.

The price is based on the trend I've noticed from Bitmain where the ROI is generally in excess of 200 days. If I remember, the S7 was around 240 days at 3% difficulty (which was much lower than reality, as we all know). Anyway, for the S9 I projected out 250 days at 3%, then cut the earnings number in half since it's unlikely that any S9 will be in customers' hands and mining before the halving.

Of course, they could just as easily price batch 1 as double that amount hoping people won't factor in the halving. There will almost certainly be a large number of idiots willing to pay that. But if the initial price really ends up being $2200, I won't be one of those idiots this time.

Regarding my guess for availability, they will want to fully deploy S9s in their DC before the halving (or their mining revenue stream is cut in half) and with enough time to work out any kinks in the manufacturing process, and to physically move the S7s out as part of a "used" sale. So let's say they're shooting to be deployed by mid June at the latest. At that point they'd probably have enough confidence to offer them for sale, with a couple of weeks for delivery, because everyone knows that you can do anything in two weeks

Also, I checked for Chinese national holidays around this time. There's a three day holiday on June 9th for the Dragon Boat Festival. I doubt that three days will make much difference either way, especially if they don't start accepting orders until after the festival.

Maybe one way we can possibly verify the above predictions early will be to see if we can spot a sustained hash rate increase of roughly double Bitmain's estimated mining operation sometime in early to mid June. That should be noticeable enough to be visible, and not just variance.

Hopefully Bitfury and BW have already bulked up for the halving. Because if they haven't, then between them and Bitmain the difficulty might very well explode in June.

Very good thought process.  I think the only delaying event would be the sales of the used miners as you have expressed.  Thanks!

[philipma1957]

I wonder if the S9 was going to use ASICBOOST and if they would let people know that technology is included.  It could be important for manufacturers to let us know in order to guide the decision of which miner to buy next.

Respectfully, I must disagree. There are really only 4 items that matter in terms of purchasing an ASIC based miner, and neither geometry size (aka nm) or AsicBoost matter at all. The items I see are:

1) What does it cost?
2) What is the hash rate?
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
4) When can it be delivered?

I guess I would also have add are there any special cooling (does it need to be -100C), or electrical supply requirements (i.e. does it need 400Hz 37 VAC as a crazy example).

The internals of how they did it don't matter one whit to me.

Just my opinion, which I expect is fairly common.

But the potential threat of a fork would matter...

S9 is unlikely to have it though unless I misunderstand the timing of hardware development and when this ASICBOOST was invented.

I agree it is unlikely to have it.  I would like to start the conversation and start getting manufacturers to make this information known though.  Anyone who isn't paying attention to the ASICBOOST saga and doesn't think it is important could wind up being parted with their money in short order...

Og do you have a few links on ASICBoost

These seem relevant. 
https://twitter.com/olivierjanss/status/731198742968291329
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-core-threatens-hard-fork-asicboost-mining-optimization/

This could be a real issue thanks for links.

[Rimtu]

I'm gona be optimistic and say

1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..

[AriesIV10]

I'm gona be optimistic and say

1) What does it cost?
2000$
2) What is the hash rate?
12TH
3) What is the power consumption in Watts?
1000W
4) When can it be delivered?
After halving..

I would add in that the timing will be in conjunction of the sale of used miners.  I am considering a new stance that there may be dual sales:  New S9 and used S7s.  Date of Release of the S9 = 23rd or 24th of May (Next Week).

[ps_jb]

Date of Release of the S9 = 23rd or 24th of May (Next Week).

No - release date is 27th of May

[AriesIV10]

"ldzly Official 2016-05-16 20:45:39

Of course we will publish our S9(Yeppppp , S9 is the name , because in Bitmain"s history, odd number means good luck =antminer beijing hot items in a selling season) which is made of our next generation chips. And we are lack of accurate information when it will release ,before that we need a long term test process to make sure the stable perfomance. So I have no idea where the information of mining sweden form ? also, I dont know why some users choose to believe him instead of inquiry form Bitmain.

have a nice day !"

[QuintLeo]

Here's my guess:

9.4 THs
1300 watts

 Pretty close to my early guess. I've not seen specs on their next chip yet to make any informed guesses though - I was pretty bloody close on the S7 *EXCEPT* I didn't predict they would move to 3 strings/board and 3 boards/miner. There isn't enough space on the board to move to more strings/board - and they might have to move back to 2 if the 14/16nm chips run at low enough voltage. I also doubt they can cram 4 boards AND enough heat sinking into a unit the size of the S7 or even close, and I don't see them changing the form factor a lot due to what kind of BAD effects it would have on their Antmine infrastructure.

$1100

 VERY optimistic. I'd guess $2000 ballpark, the new node is a LOT more expensive to develop for and the S7 started out quite a bit higher than that. Also, there won't be any "massively new massively more efficient" gear showing up for a few years, so they can afford to change their "180 day ROI assuming no diff increase price basis" structure to something a bit higher - unless Bitfury beats them to the punch and they have to be competative.

Accepting orders on June 15th
Shipping by June 30th

 I suspect those dates are a bit optimistic, doesn't give them much time to liquidate used S7s or ramp up enough S9s to replace THEIR S7s internally before they start selling them to the public. They haven't even announced the CHIP yet, on the BM1385/S7 the chip announcement as I recall was a month or two before they started blowing out used S5s.

This assumes they've either got a 16 - 14 nm process chip, or can pull off some last ditch trick (like ASIC-boost) to squeeze more out of their current process.

 Bitmain announced they were working on a 14 or 16 nm full custom chip design at the same time (and in the same announcement IIRC) as the original S7 announcement.

Regarding my guess for availability, they will want to fully deploy S9s in their DC before the halving

I doubt they'll have enough built by then.
I would be a LITTLE supprised if they are even deploying the S9 internally in significant quantity by the halfing, given they've not even announced the CHIP yet,

[IOTUSA]

^^^^they might ask >$2000, but there will be very few takers considering that you can have the same hash for $1200.
they might want to hit 10K as they probably wanted to get to 5k in S7, but 9.3-9.5 is more realistic for 1400-1450w miner, could even be 8.6Th and 1293w. 1500 is too close for comfort and reduces the US market.

In the name of decentralization I would love to see a 5 TH/s @ 800W for $1k so that people can run it at home with a 1KW PSU. But, I think it's more realistic with around 9 TH/s @ $1500-$2k and @ 13-1500w

[ernez]

I will buy this S9 if there is a PSU integrated into it same as they did with S4.

[~BitSy~]

My guess for the S9 would be somewhere along 10 TH/s and it's price somewhere in $1200 to $1400 region. It will be the most efficient one so a power consumption of 1000W could be their target for this.
The looks of it could be like an S4 body type and the noise would be the most among all the antminer versions.

[navigatrix]

My guess for the S9 would be somewhere along 10 TH/s and it's price somewhere in $1200 to $1400 region. It will be the most efficient one so a power consumption of 1000W could be their target for this.
The looks of it could be like an S4 body type and the noise would be the most among all the antminer versions.

Or maybe they'll have a couple of options, like a water-cooled system similar to the C1 (I loved that C1. So sad it's sitting on a shelf doing nothing. *sniff*). Or an immersion kit.

[Biodom]

I just hope that it does not look like that abomination with enermax PSU attached on top.

[Brob12321]

Buying a miner now is really a big risk with the halving approaching so soon, I would wait for after the halving to see how the difficulty is affected and the price of bitcoin, I'm sure Antminer will wait until after the halving because they know a lot of people are probably thinking this as well.  Although just last year BTC was at like $230 so who knows maybe the halving has already been factored into the Bitcoin price.

[ps_jb]

Buying a miner now is really a big risk with the halving approaching so soon, I would wait for after the halving to see how the difficulty is affected and the price of bitcoin, I'm sure Antminer will wait until after the halving because they know a lot of people are probably thinking this as well.  Although just last year BTC was at like $230 so who knows maybe the halving has already been factored into the Bitcoin price.

It is a quite a risk to buy a miner now - but thinking about lost profit...

[Amph]

Buying a miner now is really a big risk with the halving approaching so soon, I would wait for after the halving to see how the difficulty is affected and the price of bitcoin, I'm sure Antminer will wait until after the halving because they know a lot of people are probably thinking this as well.  Although just last year BTC was at like $230 so who knows maybe the halving has already been factored into the Bitcoin price.

It is a quite a rist to buy a miner now - but thinking about lost profit...

there is no lost profit until you reach roi, and roi on new equipment is usually ery high

now think about those that bought the s7 early, at the unbelievable price of 8 btc at that time, they are still trying to reach roi

the same will happen with the s9 the s11 etc...nothing will change

[QuintLeo]

And from NewEgg pricing on that Enermax (I've NOT had good luck with their power supplies, 50% fail rate while in warrenttee though fairly small sample size) they could have gone for an EVGA or Seasonic with near-Platinum efficiency and a MUCH better track record on longevity for about the same price.