Bitcoin Forum

Will there be blood? A friend of mine says that no turnover of power so huge as the currency change proposed by bitcoin cannot happen witout bloodshed. But there's still no sign of violence on the horizon. I kinda agree with that idea.

What do you guys think?

Yeah, the central bankers slitting their wrists after realizing they can't fight a virtual army behind 9001 proxies.

I drank your milkshake!

No, there will not be. Bitcoin could become a major player in online currency exchanges. People who think it will spark a global currency revolution and become the world standard are nuts.

^this

Bitcoin will be a success if it captures 10% of online sales and is used heavily in some area that makes sense, like micro-transactions in online games. I don't think the goal of bitcoin is to overthrow the governments of the world. Other people differ on that point.

Even that 10% of online sales won't be possible without bloodshed. IMHO

And how will that limit be stablished?
I don't understand where will the gentleness come from.

Where would violence come from? Austrian commandos storming the Federal Reserve? A nuclear exchange between Mt.Gox and Paypal?

I don't see it.

The parasites can't collect taxes on money they can't see.

Which parasites?

The ones with the monopolies on force.

I am not aware of any entities that have a monopoly on force.

Let's see what happens when you try to start your own security force and claim sovereignty over your property, land and person.

According to the UN, at least 192 groups have successfully done that.

You read a lot of Ayn Rand, don't you?

Meh. I can respect some of her positions but mostly she was an overly-pragmatic, pompous bitch.

Nearly all owned by the central banks.

No. They started a security force and claimed sovereignty over property and land of other people.

+1


The simplest most basic scenario I can imagine is employees fired due to obsolescence of their work power.

Other case scenario might be that massive ammounts of people start saving in BTC and banks reserves go dry which would obvioously led to bank runs.

Not predicting any of this will happen, just thinking what may happen given proper conditions in a reality not that different of today.

Allow me to go point by point.

1)Governments are parasites:
Government spending is a portion of GDP which means that resources are not destroyed by the government, merely reallocated. Additionally, they address externalities which could not be handled by the private sector. While the proper scope of government can certainly be debated, and I might agree that it is currently too large, to dismiss all governments as parasitic is incredibly ignorant.

2) Governments have a monopoly of force:
There are currently 192 governments, which is no indicative of a monopolistic market. Rather, it in indicative of a competitive market with high entry costs. It is true that a cannot individually enter the "force market". I also cannot build my own cars. This does not mean that car manufacturers are a monopoly.

3) Countries are controlled by central banks:
First off, this isn't true. Second off, who cares?

If you have a GPU and I have a GPU, and my GPU reaches ACROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS the room and starts to mine your coins... I MINE YOUR COINS... I MINE THEM UP!?!

The internet already caused a huge turnover of power in the period 1997-2007. The elites lost control over the flow of information. What did they do while they were losing their power?  They were asleep, mostly, until eventually they crudely awoke to a world they didn't comprehend.

Hardly any blood was spilt during this first wave. Now comes the second wave. Bitcoin marked the day the internet stopped being a toy for 95% of its users.

Another happy silk road customer.

Erm, why does an individual's labor need reallocation through the threat of violence? Also, it is destroyed through inefficiency and greed.


Look at our monetary system, the banks and the Rothschilds and you'll see it isn't as competitive as you would like it to be.



Oh, but they are. They need to acquire their debt from somewhere.

Before asking Atlas a question just open up Atlas Shrugged and read a passage from that.  You'll get the same response.

=^D

JK, Atlas.  <3.

 ;)

You named yourself after her most famous steaming pile of hypocritical bullshit.

Let me guess - you're a teenager with fairly well off parents who thinks he's figured it all out with the sheer brilliance of his own sparkling intellect.

Your sneering narrative voice is a dead giveaway.

Libel.

Your opinion is your own. All I know for certain is that I know nothing.

You don't have to be mean, he was born that way. But seriously, Atlas is clearly above average intelligence. We all went though our ethical egoism phase. He'll grow out of it. Maybe. Personally I like Atlas's unwavering dedication to a cause. It is more than most people have. (I'm just teasing, Atlas is good people)

I have no opinion on Atlas (actually I think he is a good guy :) ), though personally I hate the Objectivist philosophy (a great watch that articulates my feelings well is the recent Adam Curtis doc called 'All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace'), but man have I met a lot of the type of libertarian you describe. They are the bane of the reddit economics and politics boards.

I don't think elites lost control. I think they are loosing it right now, and what is happening on Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Egypt and Siria are consequence of this.
And there's plenty of blood there.

I dream of my day in court shouting down Rand's zombie corpse ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Paul Ryan..

 

My opinion is that you think you know for certain that you know more than people who think they know for certain but only rely on opinion for their knowing.

In that respect, you're probably right.

You are wrong, they have a monopoly of violence over a specific territory. They generally agree who has the monopoly where. If there are some disagreements between them, there is a tension that eventually ends up with a violent war. And then they fight each other over the turf like common street gangs do. The only difference is that a lot less civillians die in gang wars.

I wish I could hold so tightly to such a simplistic view of international politics. Exaggeration and unbridled hate is certainly easier that nuance and understanding.

Please share you nuanced viewpoint about international politics. This post of yours lacks any meaningful substance.

I'd argue the world is some form of an oligopoly.

Taking an argumentative position supporting any form of government to someone who belives (falsely, of course) that any form of government is corrupt and evil is an excercise in force cancellation.

Trolling birthers and the "9/11 WAZ AN INSIDE JAWBBB" crowd is equally effective, and far more entertaining.

My nuanced point about international politics and politics in general throughout history:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2648/4240414622_2bef0903aa.jpg

We who have the coins, makes the noise?

The only true enemy of Bitcoin is blind activism of politicians who want to do something, as in anything. That's not the kind of thing to start a focused war, now is it?

I think the reason for blood will be when too many people have too extreme expectations and lose money. Possibly, money they didn't own in the first place; funds borrowed for speculation.

But a war against a currency? Mmh, maybe, but I don't see it yet. Nobody really hates them, they're just another kind of asset. If people find ways to track drug dealers in the block chain, which might very well happen, there's not all that much to be angry about concerning BTCs.

And how may there be blood there? As it is I think people woudl just go to jail. Where there's blood, but not necessarily.

Lol

+1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz2j3BhL47c

Bloodshed will indeed ensure.

Why am I posting this instead of just trading on it I dont know.

Government will move in on Bitcoin in 12-18months from now

Until then the price of BTC will go up as more services are developed for it and use increases, due to its natural competitive advantage over PayPal and other online money services

The bloodshed will then start.

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

BTC will still have value from here on and be used but only for black market goods, it will not reach mainstream appeal as long as governments oppose it

Any new exchanges will be moved on and have their bank accounts frozen

People will still mine BTC a long time from now but it will not reach mainstream appeal.

Until governments move in however the price will go up, so all buy in on the MT Gox and enjoy the party! Just no real prediction when its going to end, but governments usually move slowly. Expect alot more press about Bitcoin and publicity in the mean time which will also serve to drive up the price

I care.

Your lack of interest in who makes your money and how the process works is the reason why we still live in a feudalist plutocracy.

You just need 2 hours to fully understand that what you said is totally bs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI)

Hogwash. Look at drug prohibition and you will see this won't be the case.

12-18 of growth at the present rate will mean it's too late for governments to stop it.

The demand for exchanges will be lower because people will actually spend their coins rather than just trade them for other currencies. You won't need an online exchange because everybody will know someone who will give them cash for Bitcoins and vice versa.

+1

Good mobile apps for exchanging bitcoins seems to me to be one of the keys for the success of Bitcoin, enabling easy exchange of bitcoins in the BTC<->Cash market, and keeping it out of reach of govt.

That doesn't seem to be unlikely. But I guess laws needs to be pushed towards it. And I guess few legislators would defend Bitcoin.
But what would be the reason? Ilegal trade? I guess Bitcoin may be valued without exchange for dollars. It can be used with an equivalent nominal value for goods and services without the possibility of goverment intervention.

btw, great posts guys, keep them coming.

I can't envision being able to transact in bitcoins using a mobile app in an environment where theyve been declared illegal and not being traced.  Can you?

Once bitcoins are declared illegal, all of the statist chickenshits--and there's a lot of them on this forum--will pee their pants and sell out. This will hurt the price for sure. But there will remain a market for bitcoin because a) it's time has come and there will be too much demand and b) there will be a surge of interest in online anonymity, which will become much more common than it is now. (This will be difficult for mobile apps, btw.)

It's once exchanging BTC for fiat is declared illegal that most people will exit the bitcoin "market".. which is just as well anyway. The sooner the speculators leave, the sooner there will be a majority exchanging BTC directly for
goods and services instead of trade ecxhanges whose aim is to accumulate fiat.

As far a bloody armed rebellion over BTC? Sounds like a Randian Libertard's idyllic wet dream, and therefore a reality which is exceedingly unlikely to ever come to pass. Bitcoin (or something very like it) has a niche in  world commerce for the foreseeable future, but that place is not likely as a catalyst of revolution of any kind.

how odd.

do you know, i'm unable to detect even the faintest trace of a sneer in the narrative voice of this post?

I am not sure it will happen as you describe, particularly the price crash.
I understand it is not appropriate to compare bitcoins with drugs, but you can compare for example with gold. When it was forbidden in US, did its global price dumped too strongly?

And such "war on bitcoins" could work as a strong publicity for bitcoins, increasing the demand.

Also, let's not forget that not all governments in the world are so dependent of their monetary monopoly. Some don't even have such monopoly. And it's not all governments which impose revenue taxes either. These governments wouldn't have such a strong incentive to ban bitcoins. The technology might flourish in these places.

And finally, if the retaliation really starts in the US, there might be some anti-american governments out there (Iran?) that would embrace the technology just for the pleasure of making US government life harder.

An exchange doesn't need to have a bank account, it can operate like OTC, bitmarket.eu etc.

I don't get it. Most people will wait until it is illegal to trade in order to trade?

The law abiding citizens will have to just delete their wallets if it is illegal to trade.

Irony, it's rich! I'll have two, please.

^^ This is funny.  I get this mental picture of Mises and Hayek storming the Fed in ninja gear.  I award you +1 internets. 


What if I add "within a specific geographic location"?  Can you think of any entities that have a monopoly on coercion and compulsion within a specific geographic location?

What's part of the definition of monopoly, by the way.

I'm thinking of an app where one person can simply transfer bitcoins to another person. Like a gift. Can the possession or movement of bitcoins be declared illegal?

I suppose it would be implied, yes, you are right.

Yes they can. In theory govt can do anything. We have kool-aid drinkers like DamienBlack & Scientician to thank for that. They already ban people giving away music and movies on the net. Fortunately (or unfortunately for said kool-aid drinkers) this theoretical power does not always translate into authority on the ground.

Spot on. I only think they will (try to) move in sooner. The most likely scenario is that news stories will keep coming, then probably in august/september when everyone goes back to work/school etc. Bitcoin will become hotter, the (illegal) businesses jumping on the bandwagon after the Silk Road publicity will come online and gov will have the excuse to accelerate things. Maybe 3 more months until exchange domain seizures start.

Exchange rate should be slightly increasing until then, probably with big ups and downs as people cash out, but I doubt it will hit $100 by the end of the month as some speculators predict, let alone $10k, ever. There is still some room to trade and make money, if you know when to cash out. Ironically the price has been stable for a few days now as probably many people are sitting on the fence, waiting to see what others will do. BTC however is still way overvalued compared to actual economy size, and only approaches speculative value if there will be more mainstream coverage to push prices up above $30-40, and I don't mean fringe libertation Youtube operators, or niche economy magazines.

Once the seizures happen price will bottom out below USD parity and stay there with some speculative zigzags that underscore the volatility.

All of this means no mainstream acceptance and Bitcoin will sink into oblivion, perhaps only saved by black market use. Ironically this will guarantee a lot more utility and stability, but sadly not for law abiding citizens, let alone any kind of antidote against the Fed. The idea might survive and resurface in a different implementation, hopefully without the bubble.

I don't know if all accounts trading with exchanges will be frozen though, maybe only some larger ones to serve as 'money laundering' scapegoats.

Of course the above is not financial advise, I'm not qualified to give it etc.

I'm also curious if its possible to have distributed exchanges, perhaps involving webs of trust (at some point there has to be some kind of way to transfer fiat currencies in and out, I very much doubt a suppressed market can sustain itself without exchange).

Interesting parallel. Does it fly? Everyone can get high (but they don't), most people who do, enjoy it. Some MUST get high due to their addiction. However its not a socially acceptable practice in many circles, can have serious health risks, and there is always the threat of legality.

Everyone can use bitcoins (will they), and most people will enjoy using and spending them. Some MUST have bitcoins to get HIGH. ;^) Currently there are no serious social ramifications except for ridicule and scoffing (unless one counts losing GF due to spending entire budget on mining hardware). Currently there are no legal issues, although that could change overnight.

I'm not sure such parallel is coherent. Drugs prohibition strongly decreases drugs supply, thus increasing their prices. Bitcoin prohibition wouldn't change its supply - unless people start destroying their wallets in fear of getting caught, what's unlikely to be substantial. At most, if done early, such prohibition might have a strong advertising effect, increasing the demand for bitcoins. But that's hard to predict.

I don't think they'll easily ban bitcoins.

You have me to thank for the theory that government can do anything? I don't follow you, please explain.

Yes, copyright law exists, people ignore it by sharing copies of copyrighted material with one another. The government can make any laws that they like, and people are free in this country to ignore them. The risk of getting caught is fairly low as well as long as you're just trading movies and music back and forth, much like the risk of trading BTC for goods and services directly exposes you to a much lower risk footprint that does cashing out thousands of BTC for USD.

The state that you live in is free to create laws. You are free to ignore them. You accept the risk involved. How much risk are you comfortable with? Its not "theoretical power" when the IRS starts suing people for tax evasion, or locking people up. That I believe  that this can, will and does happen doesn't make me a "kool-aid drinker", it makes me a realist. When the feds go after BTC, you will have to recaluclate your acceptable risk threshold, again. 

If the state is powerless to inhibit your personal liberty, there wouldn't be any need for Bitcoin in the first place. Your argument (was there one in there somewhere?) is a fallacy in terms.

They? This is a global  currency, not a US currency. Would it survive if the US moved against it but the rest of the world didn't?

I don't think it would. If you look at how EU policy is under the US' thumb (various MPAA/RIAA/IFPI subsidiaries, ACTA, asymmetrical banking privacy, French 3 strikes, covert CIA prisons, EC vs. Parliament, people like Gates and Zuckerberg dictating at G8 etc.), there is very little chance bank accounts in the developed world would remain useful.

That means even if an exchange evades shutdown by being located in say Venezuela, the links to any major fiat currency will be cut. Paypal is out the window, Dwolla and similar will be leaned on to stop passing through etc.

Also, a lot of traffic goes through US controlled trunks, not to mention BGP black holes. If all else fails, operators can always receive offers they cannot refuse.

I might be wrong but I'm pretty sure Mt Gox didn't get shut down in the second half of 2012.

This is correct.  Let's say the US says operating a mining rig, taking part in block exchange, and buying selling btc is illegal, then they've just birthed massive amount of credibility to the world wide system.  They could also fix the price of btc in a buy back in the form of a safe harbor reimbursement, and then make it illegal, but then the US ends up as a massive stake holder in btc... which opens up another can of worms (some other time).

<tinfoli hat firmly in place>If you were to ask me truthfully what I think is behind bitcoin.  cia.  I think they know the fiat system is on its way out.  they know that it is a matter of time before someone else figures out that proof of work computing is a far more efficient system at storing transactions on a multi billion node system.  they leak it out to the world after they've mined almost 40% of the total btc to ever be minted.... and then they welcome the arrival of the new banking world system holding 40% of the assets... game on until we figure out another more efficient method for value transactions.</tinfoli hat firmly in place>

No matter what we're in an exponential curve of technology development.  We're kind of at the infancy of the great swing upwards.  It doesn't surprise me that networked systems on a common protocol could turn the archaic baking system on it's head.

There was already, the body was identified as Satoshi Nakamoto. Yet BTC still moves on.

Totally forgot about this thread. I think the personal security aspect of bitcoin holders will be a big issue in a few months. I still believe there will eventually be some minor social convultion here and there around this.

Yep.  Organized crime probably hasn't gotten fully up to speed on the unique opportunity that bitcoin presents, but I imagine they will.   Precious jewelry sitting around the house doesn't tend to exponentially multiply in value, yet bitcoins are, and I don't think bitcoin owners are adequately grappling with the personal security implications that may accompany the bull run.  Home invasion, gun to the family's heads, demand the transfer of the coins.  Lists of those presumed to have large stashes (those involved since 2012 or earlier, for example) might be quite valuable in certain unsavory circles.  Imagine a security breach at a Coinbase or a Bitstamp that leaks a list of the KYC-verified identities.  High-value targets!

SHOLY HIT, haven't thought of that one!!!!

There wont be blood. The world is always changing and always has. Those who have the existing currency are probably investing in bitcoin right now. Others are not, and wont necessarily be affected. Existing bankers and the like wont go "oh my god, grab the weapons!!" they'll go "gee, maybe I can make a buck here", they'll do research and maybe move some other investments across. Simple as that.

Will it or has it changed the world of early adopters who cashed in? Certainly. Will it change the world and the existing power structures? no. Those who like to be able to track the money will start tracking bitcoin and probably will be mostly successful. They can hold on to the blockchain and have a clean record of what wallet contains what. And the NSA etc have tapped plenty of fibre optic cables and cracked some versions of SSL, so they would have written an extension that sniffs your connections in to Mt Gox or wherever, tracks your ebay, palpal etc and puts bitcoin wallets to names in the database with the rest of your private info. They wont find everybody, but in that way its no different to regular currency.