Bitcoin Forum

https://s3.postimg.org/qrn2wgyyb/All_Coins_Marketcap_Log_Regresion_v1.0.jpg

To know where do this comes from: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0)

Calculate today's trendline value HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.109106++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.164198))

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi

PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel

-----

Updated chart 27-12-2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2000218.msg27057948#msg27057948)

dayum I wish i could understand this more, but awesome!! 

Great work, thanks!

Not only you are ignorant not understanding this but you are an especial ignorant posting and admitting about your own ignorance :D
@OP, you are trying to contribute to this community but then you just ruined it by begging in form of donation :D

If it is a logarithm chart on a log scale - than there should exist another log scale where it would be linear.

please solve log(x)n = crypto

Thank you so much Trolololo   8)

This chart is GOLDEN!!!


Just posted a video on it with my analyses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaICCZVkIJk

Thank you Guys. Amazing charts. And great video.
It's hard learning, been into Cryptos for 6 months only. It is an other world and that kind of tool help to see a bigger picture of it all.

So I guess we can carry on investing into crypto Currencies.  8)

Nice take @OP. I just did a quick search and found your little nugget from 2015, looks like your chart's been pretty accurate even after two years, yeah? In trajectory anyway, if not the $10k prediction for Nov 2017!

Curious if this will hold up over the next two if alt marketshare continues at current rate, or if something drastic happens to the USD.

I am not sure, what do or must I see in the chart?  

Worryingly, this reminds me of the dot com bubble of the late 1990s. If you check the market capitalization of some of the stocks (such as Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, and Dell) during that period, you can see a similar pattern.

A lot of tech companies went bust after the dot com bubble and I am sure a number of alts will disappear too.
Like the tech leaders, only a few cryptocurrencies will survive once this bubble bursts.

when you use bitcoin price for analysis it is meaningful like that link
when you use bitcoin market cap then it is still meaningful but a little less
when you use altcoins' market cap you are decreasing the meaningfulness of your chart. and at some point it becomes useless.

market cap on its own should not even be used for analysis. and when you add coins like ether with 72+ million coins premined, ripple with billions coins locked away and all the smaller coins with billions and billions of coins that are contributing to the total market cap you are adding false data to your analysis.

Do you have any further details on this? It would be good to see a like for like comparison.

Thanks in advance.

The chart appears to be using cap by circulating supply rather than total supply. The billions in XRP therefore don't make any difference. As for pre-mining, the ability of this practice to inflate cap is limited to withholding supply from the free market at the expense of potential gains. This is easier when the sale is more secretive and restrictive, so that a single entity controls most coins, or several entities can collude.

Looks at logarithmic regression, looks at 2011 sees 1337 I smiled.
Got to be E 133t
But if the log shows something we have years where we are under and over the log line and that the regression pattern really spreads out on a deviance from the pattern so far with the trend only intersected not including the years 2010 and 2011, in 2012 at 125 mill, 2014 almost into 2015 at 7-8 billion and now in 2017 around 80-85 billion so we could be in for some serious upside given the historical log in terms of all cryptocurrencies and their market cap before the next intersect.

Great graph!
Anyone know how to import total marketcap historic data into excel. I know how to import per coin, but not total marketcap data.
Who knows, and who wants to share?

Admitting ones ignorance is called humility not stupidity ;)

Then we still have more correction to go, according to your graph?

Who will bleed more?

Any update on this chart?

I just compared this graph to bitcoin's. It basically shows bitcoin has lot more room to raise in price than other altcoins cause altcoins are gonna need correction. That correction will come by selling out to bitcoin. I suppose that's what we should understand. I am not so good at math btw.

An update on this would be much appreciated :)

Indeed, update would be awesome Trolololo!!!  8)

This chart of yours is indeed accurate regarding what is happening in Bitcoin's price as of now and if many people will see this post will struck their minds that there are an individual who predicts the price from 2014 to what will be the price today. Your market capitalization of Bitcoin is quite in range for today's market capitalization and I am so grateful to it, I really hope that you update your prediction to this thread sooner as it is now a big thing for me.

Op needs to be back. It would great see an updated version. Especially for 2018 because we already hit 100 bi and passed.

I went ahead and created an updated chart using photoshop, is not 100% accurate but by estimate.

Also made a short video with commentary about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAT-c2bflTI


https://preview.ibb.co/nCpBjb/Log_regression_all_coins_total_marketcap_26_11_2017.jpg (https://ibb.co/meEcPb)


Not many are donating for this very valuable work :(

Please donate to Trololo by scanning the QR code on the OP or this chart.

It will help greatly in getting more regular updates

Thanks so much!  :)

The purple line would adjust upward if the regression was recomputed.

Where is Trololo? Can he recompute his Bitcoin price regression chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2485096.msg25531777#msg25531777) now?

Sure, did u ever donate to him?

I will if he responds that his BTC address is up-to-date and that he will redo the Bitcoin price regression chart. I and others will donate if posts about that. No I did not donate in the past because I wasn’t following him.

Update Dec 4: saw no action on this and will stop following.

Trolololo I have popularized your work in many avenues- you should post weekly updates to this along with your donation address. Also share them on Twitter. Doing so you'll build a brand for yourself and no doubt get donations -- but even more valuable, you'll gain a following

Send pm Trolololo 😉

Here is the updated chart:

https://s10.postimg.org/nvgwkat4l/log_all_coins_marketcap_27-12-2017.jpg (https://postimg.org/image/nvgwkat4l/)

Calculate today's trendline value HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.10854++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.14528))

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi

PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again  ;)

Observing the spread chart, we are heavily overvalued, more than 5x times the estimated value.
Only 2 times we were higher: June 2011 and nov 2013...

Yes, all addresses are up to date. Otherwise, I would have changed them...  ;)

Sorry for the delay answering questions, but I'm too busy and I seldom visit bitcointalk.

Trolololo, I will be donating soon, but the URL for the image isn't working: https://postimg.org/image/nvgwkat4l/

The image is also timing out: https://s10.postimg.org/nvgwkat4l/log_all_coins_marketcap_27-12-2017.jpg

Thanks so much Trolololo!!!!! 8)


Very happy with the chart, made new video about it guys, enjoy!!!  ;D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSPkNHcQuIc&lc=z234h35ixlmierp0aacdp43algafjev5wwrtvf3ax1lw03c010c

Excellent, looks like the image is working again: https://s10.postimg.org/vo7kc9z3t/log_all_coins_marketcap_27-12-2017.jpg

Is this possible that somebody or Trololo will update this chart frequently?

Donate Trololo for this amazing work. If you find it valuable donate even more.

Hey Trololol, I'd like to get in closer touch with you, I've referred to your chart for years. I have a Youtube channel myself with a good number of followers. Do you have a telegram? I'd be happy to send you a tip too with Ethereum if you accept that.

Also, I can't seem to message you here, can you send me a message? (Then we can trade telegram names). Thank you!

His Bitcoin one is also very good and deserves donations for an update: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293342#msg9293342

@Trolololo -   Please message me on telegram @Tommyworldpower, I'll tip you $100 for doing so! (no bullshit)


Cheers!

The picture is pretty bad compared to the purely bitcoin one...
I really hope there could be fewer bad coins like bitconnect - these bad coins are draining the energy out of the whole crypto market

Outlook here is quite bad, do you think we will have to wait till 2020 to recover? Or is this slump due to black swan events, simple FUD-ing on all channels

Based on what?

No
No
Yes

Here is the updated chart:

https://s10.postimg.org/kzlt8lhk9/log_all_coins_marketcap_18-02-2018.jpg

Calculate today's trendline value HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809))

Please, donate to:
BTC: 3F6Cs4x5mnp1xnURih8TiHN52DFzfGShNh
LTC: MU6ZfwepfD73SAYwSQVwGx39zmmTXhef3i
DASH: XczitEhpmqPMX4fbTAEvV6SuSo1rBU532s
ZEC: t1TCLym7Jti5Qo2Wn9oMopNVGBMs2kxqkcs


PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, once again  ;)

Thank you so much for the update Trolololo!!! :)


Just published video on it with my analyses, enjoy guys and please retweet!!!  8)

https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/966207225009143814

sent ya a tip, tx id is in a pm.

@trolololo, you're a legend! What a fantastic graph! My suspicions about the whole cryptcurrency movement slowing down have been confirmed!!!

@vapourminer

Thank you very much for your donation!  ;D

Amazing @anonymint's analysis:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019 (https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019)

discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3057203 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3057203)

Has anyone access to an Excel or Google Sheet / calculator where I can plug in and do a Metcalfe analysis of price vs active users (providing my own active users values)?

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663v1.pdf (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663v1.pdf) - similar to what they've done in this paper?

Hi guys, talked about Trololo chart in my latest video, "Thou Shalt Not Buy Overvaluation In Downtrend!"

Enjoy  8)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Z1oBjF4ig


Summary:

Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash.

Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life ;) Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/

Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176

Thanks Marc!

@Trololo could you please start accepting NANO so that we can donate to help you update the chart on a periodic basis?

Thanks.

Calculator Trendline used to point to $180 Billion 1 month back, but now dropped to $150 Billion, which is right previous calculation or current one (that sems updated trololo?)

Legendary words now already from our one and only Trololo  8)


Send u message Trololo, would love to see new chart but especially have your confirmation that calculator is correct?

Current trendline is at 150 billion?

Calculate today's trendline value HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.10854++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.14528))

Nevermind, current trendline at 200B according to your last link to calculator:

Calculate today's trendline value HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809))

Mark how do you know the input in the wolfram alpha.  could you please explain. 
I discover your channel  and Tommyworldpower on youtube.  You guys have done a great work. 
I'm assuming you are Trolololo, lol

I didn't entirely understood how this is calculated at all. I am trying to see how it is and why it should work but anyway I look at it shows only upto today and nothing about the future.

If we can't really calculate the future this is jut an algorithm that shows us what the marketcap should be looking like according to this also however nothing further? If so than why not just take a look at the marketcap itself instead of this also? If it has a possibility of showing the marketcap for a future time than how it could be done? It just shows today's and that's something we can find ourselves.

Where is Trolololo when you need him lol!

yup :)

Awe and Wonder on twitter does a great job too with the log regression chart and other interesting stuff:
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder

Don't think he is doing log regression on total market cap thou

If anyone thinks Trololo's work was a bit difficult, Awe&Wonder's paper in Medium is even more so. But I think I've got the jist of what he is saying.

In my words he reckons the neutral btc price should be about $4800. Since we are already below this price at present bitcoin could now be considered to have become undervalued. For me that means now is more or less time to consider buying.

From Trolololo's formula I've calculated today's % Spread based on today's actual Market Cap. of $115.7 B.

The Spread comes to -52.8 %.

See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.

Indeed currently 252B is trendline/fair value of all crypto's, so 115B would be -54%, today 135B is -49%, undervaluation to fair value.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809)

Great job Marc, hope you update chart. follow you.

Chart was updated by Awe and Wonder:
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1071995130092113920


Made new video about it, enjoy  8)

"Serious Undervaluation is Here"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s&t

Anyone done an updated regression lately? Awe hasn't posted since December, nothing on crypto since his last update.