Bitcoin Forum

There are rumors of war everywhere as you guys know...

I can write a whole book showing evidence for WWIII coming really soon... and my question for you is.. What kind of influence do you think such a war would have on Bitcoin?

P.S
I started a very nice discussion on this subject on another section of the forum, and I thought we should continue it where the main guys are hanging, I.E here...
Here's a link to the original post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208229.msg2191792#msg2191792

I think you will find that wars have been raging somewhere in the world, continuously, since Julius Caesar sat in the Roman Senate.

Edit: remembered seeing this:
http://kottke.org/12/09/1000-years-of-war-in-5-minutes

Christian propaganda by the sounds of it.  Book of Revelation.

Wars will always happen.  There is no Utopia.

There is no reason to think World War 3 is more likely now that it was in the 1960s or any time since.

The interesting question is why you would want to believe in it.  Does the feeling that the good life can't last fulfil some kind of psychic need in you?

We'll all die and all of this, and anything else that humanity ever did will cease to matter.

Is this a debate about whether WWIII is imminent or not, or is this more of a thought experiment about how Bitcoin affects or would be affected during a world-wide conflict? I think the latter is far more interesting.

About the latter

Bad. If internet is cut-out and re-routing is stopped there might be drastic effects on network.

So WW3 might be really bad for network and lead to multiple forks, which might be an issue or not...

If nukes are used (and I assume they are in a worldwide conflict) we'll lose a bit more than the internet.

A few nations have already blocked Internet at time of crisis. If other nation did this too, this time western ones. Or mandated only government traffic were to be allowed would be bad. Internet is rather fragile thing in some parts. I'm not sure if it would survive in good condition if the cyber wars were really to start...

if, for instance, global conflict got underway, and the internet remained relatively unaffected, or people found ways to get it up and running or splintered off from the govt controlled web, and keep it going, then bitcoin could be really interesting, for instance it could be possible to continue to do business with "the enemy" when cash or fiat bank accounts would be otherwise frozen to this activty

I can see Bitcoin being used for small bands of operatives coordinating anonymously online via encrypted messages, paying for military grade weapons via the anonymous Tor gun site and the group being able to amass an army better equipped than some small nations.

So essentially, a small group of people could use Bitcoin to take over a nation.

As far as its effects on a world war. Think the French resistance but being funded completely with Bitcoin.

If such an event occurred anytime soon or the near future (highly unlikely IMO), I can only see Bitcoin crash and/or stall in development.

This is assuming that Bitcoin's umbilical cord is to the US dollar (and I think it a fair assumption, no?). As a nation, Bitcoin would only harm US interest in wartime, and drastic measures to severe Bitcoin and communication networks with enemy nations would be supported. Would it be effective? At least somewhat, possibly greatly effective.

In other words, it would be very suspicious and difficult for private citizens to argue their freedom for pursuing, maintaining and developing BTC during wartime - for any nation. Internet & BTC = Global Interest (as a whole). World War = Nation Interest (specific/particular).


Yes, but only if Bitcoin's value were stable and applicable across many currencies and cultures. As of now, only private BTC wealthy interests could supply smaller armies with guns, food, and supplies; but it would be those small armies that would have trouble getting guns, food and supplies with Bitcoin, or the private interest would need to deal only with other believers in BTC who could supply. Bitcoin doesn't have any real power right now - regardless how you define 'power' - only potential.


Far future, and if BTC is established, global and independent? Then yes, very effective for funding resistance. And it could transcend any nation's fiat if the internet and personal electronics are seen just as strong and independent.

It was already shown that someone could put together a small 20 person coup to overthrow a government via Bitcoin.

Reporter at Gizmodo went through the simulated steps of trying to put together such an operation with much success:
http://gizmodo.com/5927379/the-secret-online-weapons-store-thatll-sell-anyone-anything

True, but this is an isolated, plan coup and very short term. Its one shot, hit or miss; success rate varies wildly and average is a coin flip: http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf

In Bitcoin's (and internet's) current state, I can't see it being a real factor in a lengthy World War. Perhaps if a nation conquered the US, then any US Resistance Fighters could use BTC to fund themselves. Though supporters of BTC and the resistance would still be few and far between, and at the current size it would be pretty easy to trace involved parties methinks.

Off note: Isn't the Armory closed down?

Bitcoin requires electricity and an Internet connection, and it's difficult to imagine they would remain constant and unaffected in case of a global conflict. Then, from what I've seen, even with my very limited experience of war, war is about survival, meaning that only physical goods remain valuable. When there's only one bread left in a shop, the shop owner will only sell it to the guy paying with hard currency.

Bitcoin IS WWIII.

It would be easier to get out of your war torn country and make it to a neutral country with bitcoins than it would take to get out with gold or money.

And it would be easier for family to send money to their family members under attack.

Imagine the jews in WWII having access to Bitcoin to bribe their way out or be able to pay for things while on the run.

The Armory is closed but there are other websites still open that sell the same stuff.

Ok, so the U.S. routinely sends money to whichever government or rebel group it happens to agree with. Say, hypothetically, a group of U.S. citizens wanted to support a different rebel group since they disagreed with U.S. foreign policy. Say a Women's Church Quilting Group decided to do this because the particular rebel group the U.S. Gov't was using their tax dollars to support, was engaging in mass rape of "suspected government agents" (teenage girls taking photos of protests on their iPhones, true story, guess where) as an insurgency tactic.
Their bank isn't going to let them wire money to a "terrorist group" in Oilistan. Where does bitcoin come in? Well, the group they are trying to support decides to accept bitcoin. Voila! Not only can money be instantly transferred from across the world, but it can then be used on Tor websites to order weapons, and it could be sold OTC to buy other things like food/medical supplies/etc. Another consideration is that now this "rebel group" or government can secretly contact other governments who may support them vocally but be afraid to actually wire them money for fear of repercussion from Western powers. So these countries' intelligence services can use bitcoin transfers to keep it anonymous.

All of this stuff is highly illegal so of course I don't do any of it myself nor do I condone behaviour that might be considered treasonous. But this is how Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies could play a role in a world war or, in fact, any war.

I fear that with WW3 comes a loss of internet/network........

Andy B

WWIII is happening now.

Team America World Police is getting the job done  8)

we are in wwIII

its just a lot more urban and state against the people war


wwIV is the next one

Hive mind

The thought of war gets me really scared nowadays.. The leaders of the country I'm from (Sweden) has admitted that the past years of reduced funds to military and defense has led to that in case of an invasion, we will not be able to defend ourselves. :-[

There sure are tension between many countries.. And the crazy terrorist groups are very dangerous as well. If extremists of the ideology and religion Islam, for example, get their hands on some nukes some really terrible things will happen.

Why Islam? Thats the media influence, you have been brainwashed. I prefer too use the IRA (Catholic extremists) as an example! :D

Andy B

You are watching TV too much, There hidden hand that orchest what your mind think. Muslims for example, are even encouraged to be kind to animals and are forbidden to hurt them.

To the educated person who research what is REALLY going on with the world there is almost no question of if there will be a WWIII and I do believe future historians will point out that the date in which the war started is previous to the one stated while you read these lines. The "starting point" of a war is not with the first nuke, go research WWII and WWI and see what is the date "decided" to be the beginning.

Now, for evidence and knowledge about what is going on you can research on youtube, google and newsletters... you will see it's happening right now, the stage is almost "set" completely for it to start in a scale that will make the average joe and not just the educated person say it's happening.

So for me... the question is not "if" it happens... I meant this post to be focused on what do you guys think would happen to Bitcoin during such a war.
I will go further and explain what is "such a war":
A war in which the biggest nations fight financially and militarily using all means they got. Nukes/Biological/Chemical where the first attacks cause 30% of the world population parish and then during the next 10-12 months another 30% parishes from radioactivity/diseases etc.

I think the Internet is one of the few things that will survive... as, btw, Nukes don't destroy all that much of buildings and surroundings... don't get me wrong... it does... but it hurts Biological "targets" in a much greater radios than it hits buildings and infrastructure.

So, what do you think, is it safe to use BTC as a means of payment during such times?

If you have questions for me, or you want proof etc... After you have done your homework/resaerch, I will be happy to provide you with links and information. But please don't ask for any of that before you took at least 20 minutes of your time to research on your own.

OK perhaps the TV has brainwashed me enough when it comes to the nuke thingie..I admit : >

Nothing bad about muslims. If something, it's the religion that bothers me, not the people.
It was talk about war country against country but I just wanted to make as an example, that if extremists (of any religion) get their hands on big-ass bombs, it can go bad as well. Religion hunting down other religions like never before, etc.

I hate ALL religion with a passion!

Andy B

Economics down, war is a good excuses to stimulate it. Terrorists are always everywhere and anytime.

WW3 is less than a few months away. The bubbles in the US are getting ready to burst, they need to shift the blame. war, nukes, bombs, chemicals, we are all doomed

The war will start in the middle east: North to Israel is where the danger is right now (Hizballah and Syria) then, after the attack vs Israel begins, the rest of the world will have to follow and get in the conflict. Since Russia/Iran/China are backing Syria, when the US and European nations will get involved as well, it will be a conflict escalation into a WWIII.

So the middle east is where all eyes and ears should be pointed to and the recent 48 hours show it's happening right now as Hizballah said they are going to start a war vs Israel and Syria joined them saying the same thing.

Is there any news article or such you can link about this? I'm interested in reading some more on the subject.

Recent (Days):
http://www.wnd.com/2013/05/hezbollah-preparing-to-attack-israel-commander-says/
http://www.yalibnan.com/tag/hezbollah/
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4397
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-official-hints-at-more-attacks-on-syria-warns-assad-not-to-respond-1.524151
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-will-launch-chemical-response-to-israeli-attack/ ("Syria threatens to hit Israel with chemical weapons if attacked" - "attacked" means, Israel destroy a convoy delivery of arms to Terrorist group Hizballah).

I can send many (MANY) more articles from recent weeks and months......... including videos etc... if you want, tell me please. But basically you can research on your own

One side
Russia backing up Syria:
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/revenge_of_the_bear_russia_strikes_back_in_syria_20130521/ - Russia backin up Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/opinion/why-is-russia-still-arming-syria.html?_r=0

Iran backing up Syria:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/sep/20/syria-iranian-arms-via-iraq-live
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/uk-syria-crisis-iran-idUKBRE92D11W20130314
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/us-syria-crisis-iran-iraq-idUSBRE88I17B20120919

China backinh up Syria:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rajan-menon/china-russia-veto-syria-resolution_b_1692013.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/06/world/meast/syria-unrest

Vs the other Side:
USA backing up Rebbels against Syria:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-usa-syria-obama-order-idUSBRE8701OK20120801
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/01/us/syria-rebels-us-aid
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/28/us-support-syrian-rebels-military

UK + France backing rebbels against Syria:
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/20/world/syria-civil-war
http://rt.com/news/uk-france-arm-syria-250/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/07/france-funding-syrian-rebels

And so on and on,
Keep researching

I'm no expert as I was brought up to believe that there are enough nukes to kill all humans 10 times over and you say there is only enough to kill 30% of humans. But, afaik, there will be no Internet after nukes - electromagnetic pulses all over the world will frazzle the routers.

What a bunch of nonsense. But there is probably be a reason that the US military is going insane right now. Perhaps they want to expand the budget, now that some wars are ending. Perhaps that is why they are flying stealth bombers over North Korea, threatening Iran, etc. I'm glad the empire is running out of money.

I never ever said there are not enough nukes (and Hydrogen bombs) to kill more than stated above, but the fact of the matter is:
1. Some people will keep themselves safe, for example if a "typical" atom bomb explodes half a mile from your house and you are inside a standard safe-room with 30 CM concrete walls, you won't be hit from the radiation until you leave the room.
2. The bombs will be aimed on specific locations, probably high population concentrations, but even so - the demographic of people includes many people living outside the dense areas.
3. There is a chance for some "safe havens" - maybe some countries won't be attacked at all.
4. Once it starts, there are large "safe rooms" the governments made for the population, and those get into those should be ok.

As for the EMP, that is a serious problem, mainly from an intentional emp bombs and not the side-effect caused by the nukes, even though a nuke can cause the emp, the effect is slim compared to an EMP directed to cause it in the right frequency and exploded in the right height.
Example for such a threat; North Korea launched a "Satellite" to orbit quite recently, and the USA threatened with sanctions if they will do so, they did not care about US threats and launched the Satellite. The US said that this should be looked at as a "long range missile experiment". Anyway, the point is, according to scientists, this Satellite, which was launched successfully btw, is not receiving or transmitting any data from or to earth... in other words they said it is not functioning as a satellite... There is some speculation as to "why would anyone launch a satellite which is not a satellite" into orbit.... and the main theory is that it is a weapon, capable of launching an emp over the US.
Now, why use an orbiting-device instead of launching a long-range missile if/when they wish to attack the US? simple; the oceans make the flight take time, and during this time the missile can be intercepted, now at the same time, it is also harder to launch such a missile because the launching movements will be seen and can be intercepted and also capabilities of launching a missile to such a long range (I.E NK to US) is hard to get.
So, a satalite, once it is above the US, can easily launch a missile that hits the sky of the us within seconds instead of minutes-of flight from UK to US.
Now, since the missile comes from above, there is a good chance it is an emp missile, as emp calculations show that the most effective way to dispatch the wave is by a balanced symmetric explosion in the sky above the area you want to hit.

much of the Internet's Infrastructure is under the sea and no one will waste bombs to go to the sea. However, power-surges will happen in many places since one of the "best" targets is the power supplies of different countries. Therefore power-surges can cause internet blackouts, but as Bitcoin is created and the way the Internet is created, once a country restores the power, the data moves on and it's like a "hit the hydra head" kind of game.
In fact, the internet was invented to allow the US preserve the information and survive a WWIII scenario, as the famous physic professor Michio Kaku stated in one of his lectures.

btc237ftw you are making 2 unrelated and totally wrong points.

1.  If a nuclear war takes place, using all the weapons that the superpowers have, hiding in basements isn't going to do much good as the environment will be poisoned.  Sooner or later you have to breathe and then you will take in poison and die.  As I said, I am no expert and I know the US and Russia are dismantling their arsenals.  But I hadn't known it reached the point that Mutually Assured Destruction no longer applied.  The danger of a nuclear war followed by a nuclear winter is that all life is wiped out.

2. An EMP takes out the electrical infrastructure, not the cables.  It doesn't matter if cables survive when the power stations are disabled and when the routers at the end of the cables are disabled.

If there were a nuclear war of the kind you are thinking, humanity would be reduced to extinction level and we might well be extinct.  There certainly wouldn't be the teams of engineers to run the Internet.  Bitcoin would be worthless.  So would the dollar.  Bullets and tinned tuna would be the new gold.

There isn't even need for any nukes for Internet to go down. Just if the contracts are lost or certain nations decide to go after cables it's done for a while... Very likely it will survive in some state inside nation and for single operators, but global connections are entirely different thing...

It's funny that people are suggesting that the internet would be broken by a WWIII type event (assuming nuclear) - because the internet was created by DARPA precisely to be resistant to this exact threat :)

It would take a heck of a lot of physical destruction to bring down the internet entirely - by that time no humans would be left to use it anyway.

As for Bitcoin, only one copy of the blockchain needs to persist.

As for what remains valuable in war, I remember reading a fascinating account of Hong Kong under Japanese occupation - a situation where preexisting currency was rendered useless. Gold and jewellery were used to store wealth. And Jews sewed gold into their clothes when escaping from the Nazis. Portable wealth is the key, and Bitcoin ticks that particular box quite nicely. You can keep it in your brain, let alone sewed into your clothes or dangling from your ears.

Finally, I hear my self thinking outside my body by reading someone else's reply!:)

I was making the same point earlier - you are right.


I too, think the value of BTC, during the war will become greater as more and more people would need to secure their money and make sure they can use it while on the move, or at least have the potnetial of being used while on the move.

Think about it, how is the internet resistant to war, nuclear or otherwise? Let alone the technical side, who is going to operate and maintain the machines and infrastructure? Or do technicians get to first dibs in these bunkers? And if they were so important and vital to the nation's interest and survival to maintain any infrastructure (let alone a specific one like the internet), why do they need to worry about wealth, money and value? I think they will get as much as possible. (Only a few wackos are going to care about their future wealth and ability after such a war)
 
Also, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET#Misconceptions_of_design_goals


+1

The answer is simple: an area gets hurt, the internet (DATA) is still stored elsewhere, and when the hurt area revives it regains access to the data and/or copies it. it's like a game of "wackamole".
Also, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1e27wOIXqY


1. You are confusing Bio and Chemichal with Radio active. it isn't poison it's radioactivity, clearly you do not know what it is... Radioactivity disolves overtime, especially if it's on the air, so as long as you stay where radiation cannot enter, you can breath just fine.
2. An EMP will destroy cables as well... I was referring to underground and underwater cables connecting the world to the world wide web... Now, even though electricity will go on and off in some places... you can re-read it and see it will... "go on and off" meaning again, it's a wackamole game where whenever the power gets back on the data gets recopied and restored. At least the data that is needed for survival. That doesn't mean that all of the Websites will survive, as some websites are on simple host-machines and if those are destroyed, the website is gone... UNLESS, the owner has more copies of it, and simply recopies the website to functioning hosts whenever those become avaialbe.

The above link to a short (1:42 minutes long) video by Michio Kaku is good, you should see it... also, keep in mind it's just a very short explanation, there are many other - thorough ones out there.... research a little bit....

One more thing:
Clearly your family did not come from Germany after WWII and/or you never checked what it means to SURVIVE the war.... In times of war, security is #1 prioirty as it brings food, water and refuge. All these "unnecessary" things are gained using this one "thing" that only "wackos" will care about during such times...

btc237ftw - the half-life of the radioactive poisons in the 10s of 1000s of years.  Its all very well saying that if you stay in your basement you won't die but ffs 10s of 1000s of years is a long time to spend in a basement.

Do you seriously thing that if your umpteen-great-grandchildren emerge in the year 32013, the first thing they will ask is "What about the bitcoin that was bought in 2013?"

Seriously?

Clearly you are basing this on some science fiction film or story you saw or read...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Relativedoseratesnormalisedforday1.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Relativedoseratesnormalisedforday10000.png

btc237ftw - I stand corrected.  It seems I spent my teens and 20s not only being subjected to awful fashion but also awful science.  We were assured that Mutually Assured Destruction meant that all of us would die.

To be honest, I find the bad science easier to forgive that the flared jeans and embroidered shirts. 

If you want to have some fun with the concept of what will happen after a nuclear war watch "The Divide" and see how that makes you feel about the fate humanity after a war.

Question isn't so much about national military scale Internet, but the global one. Military networks are probably fine, but what about public networks run by multiple companies with contracts between these companies... Everything on Internet doesn't happen by magic...

Pointing out to a Hollywood film to show what will happen to the world after a nuclear war goes off just seems incredibly silly, every idea you introduce for a film is heavily Hollywoodized, people don't seem to realize that.

There will be women selling their bodies for food, rape, murders, mass slaughter for food/money/weapons, the currency of choice would probably be small (ideally .22) caliber bullets, store owners that have food will probably try to keep everything to themselves and/or trade it in exchange for weapons and other valuable goods, the ruthlessness of that world is unimaginable to anyone in this thread.

Bitcoin will certainly be long gone, I doubt you would even have mail to purchase goods with it.

Oh, then you haven't seen the movie. It's everything you just mentioned and more. You'll like it.

Already watching it.

Ask the average impressionable teenager about ancient Rome and the first thought they get is the romance, the beauty, the culture, without giving much thought to Romans cutting off the limbs off people and making them their pets, people smelling like shit or people shitting in the street, wiping with their hand etc.

I think some poor souls would even agree to time travel to ancient Rome given the opportunity.

Still got me curious..

That is discussing half life in general.  The example given is for a half life of 7 hours, which is very short compared to what these weapons actually produce.   Different nuclear weapons will have different radioactive isotopes that are released, depending on the makeup of the fuel an other materials used.  Iodine-131, for example, is highly dangerous to human due to it being readily absorbed by thyroid.  It's half life is 8 days, so it would take you 7*8=56 days for your ten fold reduction.   Many others, such as radium-228 have a half life measured in years (5.75 years for radium-228).  So, in that case, you're looking at 40 years for your 10 fold reduction.  And radium is far from the longest lasting, although it is among the longest lasting that is produced by most nuclear weapons.  However, there is quite a variety of fuels and materials used to make various forms of these weapons.

So, you are right that 10s of 1000s of years is probably overkill, but we are not looking at insignificant time periods.

Yea, it's true different type of bombs will have different effects and there are many other factors to consider such as weather, location it hits I.E mountain, water, buildings, a valley, wind etc... And yea, some places will be radioactive for longer periods of times than others, and when I say "radioactive" I mean dangerous to humans kind of radioactivity, however, protective suits can allow you to walk outside in most radiations (If you waited a few days to weeks since the blasts) and you will be fine, and in many cases waiting weeks to months will be enough.
You can also take Iodine pills that protect you from Iodine radioactivity by filling the body's supply of Iodine with good Iodine and not allowing the radioactive Iodine come, since there's already (Non radioactive) Iodine there.
In any case, recovery from such a war would take 40 years or so and lets not forget the amount of dead people that needs to be buried and the diseases it causes... So, I'm not saying it's a smooth ride or anything, not at all, I said that almost 60 and maybe even 70 % of human population can and should be killed during such a war and the majority of deaths will be within the first day of the bombing and about doubling that amount in the coming 12 months (from radiation, diseases, hunger etc) but I don't think we are talking about 99 or even 90 or 80 % of the world's population dying.

Just think what it means to have 4-5 billion people dying in such a short period of time, where the rest of the living have very frightening lives and poor living conditions.. it is not going to be easy!

Excellnt reply notme,

Thanks for it

      My first thought when I heard about bitcoin is that the technology itself would elicit a global war as the current elite began to lose their grip on the world.

   I heard about BTC from RT, a Russian owned media outlet that broadcasts over satellite and tailors its shows towards certain demographics in the US. RT airs way more stories about bitcoin than US media outlets.

   That combined with China's airing of a special on bitcoin makes it seem like they are trying to use bitcoin to end the US dollars status as de facto world currency. Could be Russian and Chinese new rich are slowly and quietly selling all of their dollars for bitcoin to avoid driving the price too high before they can get in.

    Although the US corporate controlled propaganda machine convinces people that they should want to remain globally politically and economically dominant, more and more people are waking up all the time.

      Please people- REMEMBER THAT WE MAKE THIS! For example, fear of a shortage leads to people hording, which leads to a shortage, while there may be no actual reason for a shortage other than people's fear. Fear of war and poverty is the cause of war and poverty!


   So just keep calm and use bitcoin, no matter what you hear on the news. Apocalype means literally "revealing," and remember, "The apocalypse will not be televised!"