Bitcoin Forum

It looks like the obvious "return to normal" (aka "denial") phase is fading out, as we're heading to the fear phase.

We're now trading below the 200 day EMA. Meanwhile, market depth on the bid side is shallow, no real support till the $60s.

You can start smelling the fear. Many will be burnt in the epic traps we will have. Expect "I lost faith in Bitcoin" kind of threads to slowly start spreading.

It was about time, but still way to go before despair and capitulation.

https://i.imgur.com/OmPVtSd.png

Sounds like desperation to fill your short sale  ;)

Damn FUD , even if its true, why post it ?

What a disgusting graph- you clearly need to use lube when doing anal.

Why not? This is the speculation subforum. We are discussing the different phases in a bubble deflation. If you are in these subforums you are supposed to be interested in trading and short to mid term price action, no need to have fear, that's for the overemotional and amateurish herd - just watch the trend and act accordingly.

its so true

This kid got burnt for sell low and buy high before. So now he wants to spread FUD for his own interest....

No real support until $60s..... right, does it hurt pulling it from your ass?

Of course sold low and bought back at a loss in some occasion, or are 100% of your trades profitable? Always? Wow, then you are a demi-god.

Still, I'm very happy of how I performed so far, I'm still quite ahead in my day trading and very much ahead on my investment. I already recouped it back, I still have some coins I will never sell in a paper wallet (because I don't want to be totally out), and I have plenty of fiat from selling way above $100 that will allow me to at least double (if not more) my coins while having already covered my initial investment, which at the end the day if my end goal in this game.

BTW: No real support until $60s because we went through the $70s like a hot knife through butter. Just look at the depth. Only 10k coins to $70, and you know half of it will be pulled fast. Buying pressure when we hit $72 was ridiculous... Just compare the buying volume in the bounce from $72 to the selling volume on the way down.

Rallies on low volume? Yeah, nice, we all know how that ends up.

The thread is spam? So, bearish analysis is spam? This is good, agressive behavior towards bearish analysis is a sign of nervous fear, we're definitely leaving behind the denial phase.

That's good for you perma-bulls, the sooner despair and capitulation happen, the sooner BTC will go up again. All "bears" in here are just people waiting for a good entry point, you should realize we all believe BTC long term, we are just better with more coins than with fewer of them.

BTW: if you think this thread is "spam" just report it and get it deleted.

I think OPs analysis makes perfect sense. Judging by the dumbass responses here it's clear that denial is not gone yet, which is why I agree we are only beginning at the real fear phase, and still a ways off from capitulation.

You know... it's easy to post bull here while shorting bitcoins for shits and giggles, prolonging the thinking that we are in denial and still a long way to go.  8)

Your thread is too obvious and too late.

It serves no purpose, as those "i lost faith" threads or as my post here.



Someone please tell me that such posts/threads do not affect btc market more than 0.01%
Pretty please?
With a cherry on top?

These threads do not affect btc market more than 0.00000%. The threads in here are just a rough picture of the sentiment of the hard-core Bitcoin community, which BTW is bullish by nature.

Really, someone has to be a deep retard to believe that his posts in here have any influence at all on the market.

Some people in here really need to STFU.

You can go to any other bearish thread and post what you posted here with some justification, but accusing Rampion of spreading "FUD" is just, what's the word, childish. He's been one of the most consistent and consistently thoughtful posters on here. He has been saying for months now that a) we're going down, and b) he's not really worried about the long-term prospects of bitcoin. If your own trading strategy puts you into a level of discomfort, change it. Don't come crying about it in the thread of one of the not-that-many quality posters on this sub-forum.

I think your analyses is sound Rampion but I do see you post a lot and with very high confidence. No agenda? :)

and now all that are long are gona be frightened. :D

I wonder if people who are crying for the bitcoin price to drop does know what are long time consequences of they wishes. If the price would rise stable they would buy bitcoins and sell they later with profit. But because they are greedy and want more bitcoins, they lowering the price causing all bitcoins to have less value and make it harder for price to recover. Which means all people who could invest or invested will get hit by that including people who are doing this.

And because there are always people who wants the price for bitcoin be low so they can buy cheap it seems like always there will be situations like that. And instead of stable growth of few percent a month we have few people who is playing with price because his 50 000 of bitcoins is not enough yet. And the rest who is following them and helping price to destabilise with their actions only thinks about they little profit which in the long run turns agains them too.

Gox stopped transfers.

How is everyone missing this? FUD because graphs are retarded in this instance. Fundamentals, people.

Bitcoin prices took so many knockdowns these past few months but always came back up. What's worrying about this decline is that it is gradual unlike the sudden drop in prices when Gox or SR shutdown.

One thing is a trap (bull or bear), a different one is a trend. The current trend is down.

The price is down because most of the money that came in to drive the prices up in the last 3 months was speculative and the investors/speculators have realised that the prices are not going up again soon and that Bitcoin is doing no more real business than it was 12 months ago and does not justify a $1bn valuation.

They are deciding to get out of Bitcoin and when they find they cannot with MTGOX, that's just making it worse.

It's part of the denial.

 >:( Stop spreading sh*t people things should go better now:

https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

But it doesn't mean we should all depend on them... we should use more exchanges.
Also spooking everyone isn't helping either.

Instead of spreading sh*t we should spread the use of bitcoins for consuming.
Local shops, bars, asking your favorite internet shop if they gonna use it,
affirming that we are a strong community.  ;)

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

― Warren Buffett

Yes, this thread is not FUD, it is reasonable non-emotional analysis of everyone else's unreasonable emotional response to market action. That's an important part of trading. Look at the chart, this is a long-term bubble deflation, and there are emotional stages for those who invest with emotions rather than reason and careful analysis.

Don't let emotions affect you too much. Obviously they play a small part, but letting them dictate your trading to the point where you deny obvious trends - that's dangerous.

I'm never all-in or all-out, (I love bitcoin/hate fiat too much to be all-out and am too cautious to be all-in.) But right now I am "more out" than usual. A lot more. Just yesterday I sold a chunk of my remaining coins at $79, and this morning my buy order at $68 was filled on CampBX. Now we're back up - but still in a long-term downtrend, so it's time to sell those again. Yay me. Anyone can do this, it's not hard. I don't know a darned thing about TA, I just know there's a downtrend and I can make money. Even if I end up mis-calling the bottom, I've still made mad BTC in a string of successful trades on the way down. I place buy and sell orders once a day. But if I deny the downtrend, I end up getting caught in a series of emotional bull-traps all the way down.

So , if the bubble deflation is normal , and you really believed in a price drop , why did you start these last week?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245285.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245285.0)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245297.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245297.0)

If we bounce back did we already hit despair/capitulation at some point?

I guess I am bullish and probably in denial, but I am not that worried really.

Are you short now?  I don't follow the wall tracker thread real closely but last I remember you were a buyer somewhere around $108ish?

What I get from observing this thread is that most of the people questioning or criticizing Rampion don't seem to understand (or at least bring up) Technical Analysis.
First, let me say I'm a long term BTC Bull (very very bullish). I'm a short to mid term bear.
Quick background - I was an active trader and did quite well at it years ago, but have been out of the market for 10 years or so. I just practice my old skills on BTC these days.
I know candlestick chart analysis pretty well and use a handful of indicators along with it. More recently I've been learning about market depth but my forte is chart analysis.

I believe deeply in BTC, but right now we don't have much in the way of fundamentals (if we were to compare ourselves to a stock). I know that will come though and things are really looking bright for the future. My argument here is mostly TA. If great news comes out (as with any stock) the TA can be thrown out the window (short term).

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

1. Have you been following the tape? I have watched it for weeks (on and off) now and something has stood out to me. The size of the sell orders are usually much much larger than the buy orders. This tells me common Joes (like me and probably you) are doing the buying, while large holders are doing the selling. Is this not INCREDIBLY alarming to you? Have you even checked this?

2. The Market depth on the buy side is evaporating and has been. The sell levels have been increasing. The number of sells at higher prices (in the books) has been decreasing. Now, a lot of the depth is clearly fake (e.g. walls get pulled and such) but we are still seeing a picture when we look. Is this not worrisome to you? Do you not notice that the sellers wait for the buy walls to build up and then dump?

3. The 10 day EMA just crossed under the 100 day EMA (around a week ago) and the 21 day EMA did 2 days ago. Do you understand this? It is not an end all, but considering it is the first time it's happened in a while, it should catch your attention.

4. Many experienced TA guys are bearish. Actually, I have not come across one that is bullish. (Say out of around 10 or so that seem to know their stuff, 2 or 3 which are paid services.)

5. We broke key support at 79/80 ish. We are on it right now but we broke through it cleanly and without much resistance. This should bother you DEEPLY if you understand TA.

6.  On the recent leg down, I called 2 or 3 negative divergences (up move in price with a down move in volume) which were followed by huge drops down. Check my posts with labelled pictures.  Considering the huge drops afterwards, have any of you looked into this? Noticed this? Or are you just thinking we bottomed because we have started going up?

7. Can any of you actually really read a candlestick chart? What does the chart tell you? (I can't find much in it that is positive - outside of being oversold).

8. Have any of you noticed how this "crash" can be almost laid out and over the 2011 crash? (Chart wise)   Is that not a warning? I mean just to be careful...

Now, I'm not saying I know what is going to happen. Any of us can be wrong, the point isn't in saying "I'm right", after all we are all BTC enthusiasts for the most part. I'm only sharing to share, not to taunt or the like. But the TA I use and those I follow are seeing pretty much the same thing (Using a variety of TA to boot). Yes, we can be wrong but I'd much sooner take an evidential approach rather than just an emotional one (and as the fundamentals appear they should and will be integrated). Something I heard once has really stuck with me: "Emotion is not concerned with truth. It is merely concerned with being correct." I have experience regarding emotional decisions, not that long ago actually (I was burned a bit) and I'm adapting. Is anyone doing the same, adapting?

Basically, I see emotional reactions here with no TA (or even fundamental basis) for the "attacks" on Rampion.
In a sense, you are proving his point. That should be worrisome...

IAS

I just showed this in another thread of the year 2011

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2656796#msg2656796 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2656796#msg2656796)

At that time sold to a lot of people at the bottom of the lowest cost.

But we have a down trend and may take a long time.

For all you fcking pathetic trolls,

please dont talk like you give a shiet about someone's investment. Its fun to troll around but when you're fcking serious enough to make an essay to troll .... you failed miserably.

I guess you're working hard to spread FUD so you can buy low. How pathetic.

Now you should write a full page of txt asking me to explain why i give some homeless $20 today. Please entertain me dumbass.

Hmm, someone with logical, well laid out conclusions against a troll, orange ignore button and no productive or useful information whatsoever.

I can tell who is an asset to this forum, that is for sure.

I don't think the 60's will hold.

50,51 & 55 is where the real support is unless it gets pulled

Post me a chart with fancy lines drawn dude
I'm all about changing my bids lower at the drop of a hat  :o ;D ;)

At $78 a coin the price still looks rather "frothy" if you ask me. You could have picked up 6 coins for that back in Jan 2013.

I don't sense we are near capitulation yet. That will come later, once we pass the 1/2 century mark.

Why "quote" someone (me) and insert things they never said? Mod, how about some action here? Isn't there something against board slander?  :D

My last prediction (yesterday) might be coming true as we speak (TA at work):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.21960 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.21960)

Up until the very back end of this month, I felt that there was still a way to look at the charts and feel short term bullish. But IMHO Rampion is right, the technical indicators are now looking distinctly bearish. Like many in this forum, I'm extremely long-term bullish on Bitcoin, and sometimes I find it hard to overrule my emotion and just trade the evidence. If I'd been better at this, I would have moved into cash earlier that I did. The major reason I read the speculation board at least once a day is to get confirmation of the things I'm seeing to help me trade the facts.

good post Rampion.

The vitriolic reactions in this thread lead me to think that we are still mostly in "denial" territory, alas we've been there for a long time already and people are starting to get really jumpy. But the fear is certainly coming. I pretty much agree with your sentiment of "let's get this over with quickly". It's funny how you can't post bearish analysis without being accused of spreading FUD  ;D

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what?  ::)

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

I hope you realize I teasing you.
Usually when you make an asumption you have to say , around, like , near , something like.
Yet you went and 82.82.82. :)

I was waiting for the 82 thing not to happen just to tease you so you won't precise values again :)

we are already returning to normal :) we just ended the capitulation phase

we are going into fear

i guess we as professional traders can agree to disagree on this technical analysis point :)

we will see after i finish my dump

Well, from the look of it, I think a lot of bulls are still stuck in denial phase, and they will be all the way to the bottom ;D

I praise for the day the price stop falling, and start to raise, and those bulls say 'I told ya!' when the price double from 10$ to 20$.  :P

Yes, indeed this thread is a perfect example of how much denial is still in the air. But I would add that all this aggression against bearish analysis is also an indicator that fear is starting to spread.

When I said "this bubble needs to pop" before the crash from $266 to $50, people just mocked me.

When I said "bottom will probably be around $50ish" after the April 10th crash, people just replied "keep dreaming about cheap coins"

Now they seem to be getting nervous and edgy, that means something.

don't forget to wipe and flush



https://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_101735.png

My apologies (sort of), be more clear! I don't remember all usernames ("good guys" and "bad") ehehehe
 ;D

Watch $68, $60 next.

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ (http://trading.i286.org/) and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory.  ;D

I understand your point, as far as I can tell. unless, when you say "block", you're actually talking about the technical concept (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Blocks). then I didn't understand your argument :)

Assuming you're talking about size of individuals trades (yes?), your argument makes some intuitive sense. Agreed. So does "three green candles in a row, up we gooooo!". My point was that what you see (small chunks for buying, large chunks for selling) could also be the result of a/several not-completely-stupid large holders covering their tracks. If that's the case, then the immediate observation you described is not able to support your conclusion ("confidence in bitcoin is eroding"). There are more sophisticated methods to gauge if volume and supply/demand supports or contradicts the current trend. I'm not an expert in them, all I was saying is, your volume based argument sticks out somewhat as being slightly, sorry for calling it that, naive, compared to the rest of your points.

Hi IAS,

I believe your observation is correct that the sells come from large early adopters and the buys are smaller common Joes. However, I'm not sure that this needs to be alarming. If bitcoin were to succeed in mainstream adoption a - massive - distribution from few large to many small holders will need to have happened (in contrast to traditional stock & commodity markets). Assuming large holders will try to buy back the same amount of coins they are dumping today, if they would get a chance to buy them back for a considerable lower price, their plan needs to not work out for a distribution to occur. The price not going as low as they expect so that they do not succeed to buy the coins back is one scenario that would accomplish this better distribution.

Another scenario accomplishing better distribution is whales selling too early before the bubble. I can imagine this happened to a considerable amount of whales too in the bubble runup (those selling below $30 for example). However if the price goes to say $10 now, those whales will yet again get a chance to buy all those coins back.

I think bitcoin achieves this wider distribution mostly by going up much faster than even hardcore believers can imagine. Because I think a distribution cannot happen when the price goes lower than imagined as this concentrates the coins more to a few smart, courageous and cash rich investors. So I would think that with the sole exception of a few months during the 2011 crash when it was depressed, all other periods achieved wider distribution.

Many people expect the same to happen today, a crash whereby todays sellers can buy a lot more coins later. But if that would be true no wider distribution would be accomplished. And although this can happen yet again, as it did in the depression of 2011, the odds are lower rather than higher I would think.  

I could be wrong. I have no emperical proof to support my claims about when distribution is happening and when concentration is happening. Just thinking out loud.  

I do what I want. If I want to make a thread claiming price will go up, I will do so. If I want to make a thread claiming price will go down, I shall do that too.  ;D
For the last 2 months I have been selling and increasing my fiat position. However, I've only been vocally bearish for the recent past - before that I was accepting that price would go lower but I still "talked the talk" in terms of bullishness, with the occasional bearish comment. I don't feel like I should have to explain this. Listen, there are a smorgasbord of different sentiments, even now. Folks here are slowly turning bearish but you can't expect everyone to be on the exact same page. No need to overanalyze poor bitcoinashley's posts.

For the record, I'm still laughing at the idiots who think we are going down to $0.50. THAT is just as much of an inability to accept reality as the folks who think we are going back to triple digits next week.

Deluded or high on hopium.

The thing about parasites is that they need the host to survive or else they die with it.

The rise up to $260 was fuelled by greed: put dollar in get more dollar out was the name of the game. But the price is a very poor indicator of strength because it is a reduction of sentiment, like a 3D cube casting a 2D shadow on the wall, by looking at the shadow only you will never get back to the 3 dimensional aspect.

We need to shake these weak hands out of the market, let the strong hands enter.

The three candles in a row point is just 3 days though, doesn't mention volume or the like. I still am confused by your statement. Also, I listed a lot of points regarding what I look at with TA, the size of the shares being sold, to me, is still significant.

I mean what are the chances that the sell sizes would be consistently larger than the buy sizes? Why not just have more volume down than up? When you throw the larger sizes in there it adds an alarm to me as the moves down like that, can start an avalanche. Know what I mean?

So again, my argument, or rather just a part of the points I mentioned, is not volume based, it is "sell sized" (I said blocks) based.

I agree that these early adopters will by back in lower (and perhaps already have started to add some insurance). But, imagine this, if they sold shares in larger volumes, like 100, 500, 1000, etc., why would they be buying back in at 10, 20, 50, etc? That is the buying pressure I see. I think when they buy back in we will all know it.

I am not saying I know, just sharing my opinion. Clearly this area is a bit of a guessing game with lots of possibilities.

Interesting regarding the distribution. I think we have to consider that we are the early adopters ourselves. We are still pre Netscape Navigator in a sense.

Back to the thread, the fear is really going to start once we hit the 60's. $68 is a kind of key support imo as is $60. IF we slice through those, look out below. We are not so far from 50 and the volume is not anywhere near heavy yet.

I'm cutting down the quote size, hope you don't mind.

I'll try to make my points more clear...

(1) The "three green candles" comment was an analogy, and had nothing to do with volume. The idea was: imagine someone posts "I am experienced in candlestick chart analysis", and then would drop that line about 3 green candles. You would say that that's not how it works, right?

(2) Your "block" size argument rests on the fact that sell sizes are bigger than buy sizes. Since buy side and sell side of any executed trade are by definition equally large, what you mean is that sellers' positions on average are individually bigger than buyers' positions, right? (I'm honestly not trying to nitpick, just want to clearly understand your point.)

(3) If so, then my question is simply: what prevents a whale from splitting up his buy orders, but consolidating his sell orders, to create the impression you described?

(4) The order book is a prime tool for manipulation. So if (a) the order book tells you that the whales are selling while the small guys are buying, but (b) volume analysis would tell you that money flow is overwhelmingly positive (it is not, btw) then those two observations would conflict. And I would always trust (b) more than I would trust (a), because one is easy to manipulate, the other one less so.

It must be great being one of those people with a huge stack of coins, they can orchestrate all of this psychological warfare and FUD on all the smaller speculators to get them to pretty much do exactly what they want, creating a self fulfilling prophecy while profiting from it and increasing their stack of coins.

Waiting for a post how this price drop is orchestrated by govs, banks, fed or whatever...

No way, Elvis died long time ago.

It's Nixon.

Denial is fading indeed, those who were saying "I just buy and hold forever" are starting to ask to themselves why they should be the bag holders, if they can sell and buy back cheaper?

Welcome fear. Lots of future coming today.

Bull traps are expected but bounces has been quite smallish during the crash from the $90s. I guess the big one will arrive soon... But nevertheless fear is taking over.

Like clockwork, we touched a 70 rebound

Imo the reasoning here was that we broke the trend of higher lows below 90. A lot of enthusiasm went out at that point. That was my personal cue to sell and boy was i glad i did. Suppose i should have done it sooner but i didnt want to unless we hit lower lows (then only would i be certain the gig is up)

Your incessant cheerleading was a bit much for my taste but I used to give you credit for at least having conviction.  At least I thought you did, but now you're showing your true colors.  Just another noob who got burned by the bubble and is now trying to back peddle out.   

maybe my sell at 43,5euro 2 month ago will turn a good move.
It's been 2 month i'm looking the chart thinking: So that's how you feel when you try to catch the falling knife...

loads of poeple still made a very speculative move by buying above 30$ must be painfull to see the chart for them.
so i agree with op fear must be coming for them.

I appreciate your "hounding". I find it is how I learn. I know candlesticks pretty well, but not a whole lot else. So, I am learning along with the rest of you.

1) Basically yes. In other words, we have to take context and all the conditions into play.

2) If I understand you correctly, then yes. So, the sellers are selling huge amounts at once. They may break it up, but what gets me is the 5 minutes of silence and then suddenly all these sells go through. Now, maybe they are triggered by the initial sell, but my feeling has been it is the same seller breaking his lot up. The time is exact. But, it can be limit orders being set off. Perhaps it doesn't matter as the picture still makes sense, know what I mean? (Even if I am interpreting things incorrectly, it is still assisting in analyzing this move.  ;D )

3) They do split up their orders but I get the feeling as I said in 2 above. Again, if I am making a fool of myself here, it is worth saying, I don't know a lot about market depth and such. But sometimes ignorance is indeed bliss as a simplified approach (what I think I'm seeing) is correct (or at least suffices.)

4) I really only use the order book to watch the sells go through. I used to use it more to give me an idea of the market (and still do a bit, but more as a trend analyzer than a overall "now" picture).
I watch money flow, but that is particularly a dangerous indicator with BTC. I mean, think about it, the BTC's we see were all mined and not bought. (That happened later). So, unlike a stock, the money flow
can be completely off. I think my thinking here is correct, no?

I'm a candle guy (that sounds weird...) so correct me if I'm wrong...

IAS

ps - I don't really see lots of fear yet, hence as I said in the wall thread. I am thinking 50 is not a bottom, unless huge volume comes then.

By analogy, today feels a lot like when this was posted. I like to look back and reflect on people's attitudes then. Then, as now, there was no real bad news to go with the sell offs... just people giving up on Bitcoin.

Hm. As you can see above, I was around for that one. Feels different to me this time, but I could be wrong of course. 380-400 might well be the bottom, but I don't see the bear market as over yet.

I am curious. How did you come to this conclusion?

His conclusion was similar to mine, except I thought drop to 420 if there actually is bad China news, then a bounce back to 450.  I guess if April 15th passes and the Chinese are still sitting around with their dicks in their hands with no news at all, it will be back to 550-590.

Fear is fading hope is approaching.  ;D

Strong emotions in a marketplace is a good thing, in my opinion.

To be honest I am still not able to read these phases good, this was my second bubble only, in first one I felt bit of fear, in this one much less so I need one more bubble before being able to do it (and before not caring too much as I'd be rich :D )

I dunno. Seeing these same patterns time after time makes me a little giddy.  :D

This community is Human nature on massive steroids.
Gold (for example) had a big bull run in 1979/1980 and it took over 25 years to get hot again.

We have had 3 HUGE Bull runs in under 3 years.
Welcome to the.......something........What is this place?....Where am I?  :D

This is a deeper bear market than last time around. Last year, we had at most five weekly red candles, after which price stabilized and generally began climbing again. This time, we've had only one uptick in the past 11 weeks, which is pretty crazy for any market. So no, I think it will be a considerable amount of time before a recovery happens... if it happens.

Does that really make sense? Because it's taken so long to recover... it will take much longer to recover?

Coupled with the fact that sentiment is still quite negative, even compared to a few weeks ago. I think it will take something major to break out of these doldrums. Just my opinion, but by looking at the charts and expecting a reversal any time soon is just blind optimism.

There is no bubble.

-B-

those who wanna sell dont be stupid.. while u are selling they are shorting + buying back.. LOL!

1 thing for sure.. bitcoin is stronger then last year.. becuz many infrastructures are up.. the atms, more business started to accept it.. HOLD ON TIGHT GUYS!!! price gona soar 200-400+ in 1 week with just 1 good news LOL! it can be amazon or ebay or paypal..

This guy is betting 1 BTC that price will be above $500 in one week.

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/21q2wi/daily_discussion_sunday_march_30_2014/cgffeea (http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/21q2wi/daily_discussion_sunday_march_30_2014/cgffeea)

Any takers?

Dont post in every thread, your posts wont up the price. Stop denying and get whatever profits you can or see your fortunes deplete in front of your eyes. Dont be a fanboy, be smart

I think that there is a certain problem arising, namely that the percentage price increase in Bitcoin is outstripping the adoption rate.

Adoption is going up, but not as fast.

The reason for this exuberant price increase compared with adoption is that more and more of those invested in Bitcoin have "doubled down", with a very large portion (compared with other investment markets) going "all-in".

This in turn keeps volatility high, because there is more hope and fear in the market.

So the bear market may continue for longer than expected as investors realise that adoption is not keeping up pace.

Fear ???

Why Do We Fall? [Motivational Video]
http://youtu.be/flKP4Te8L94
 

There's no short (or certain) answer to that, but the gist of it is that a number of longer term (mainly momentum based) indicators are turning (or have turned) decidedly bearish in this market, but didn't in mid-2013. Add to that various explanations that make some sense to me (like those based  on EW theory), and I can see several scenarios: a quick, painless recovery (not very likely imo), another month, maybe 2 of slowly trending down, but then recovering quite swiftly (more likely than the previous, and the scenario I sort of hope for), or the worst case of a really protracted bear market that will make most of 2014 look pretty bleak in retrospect. Neither of the 3 scenarios says anything about the long term success of Bitcoin by the way, just what I expect to happen in the coming months.

Just out of curiosity, does a new tax year for most of the world count as "major good news"?

That's the thing. As one fiscal year closes, the market in that country can't easily hedge for the next . They close their books. There is no overlap. The size of their economy determines how much the market can take up the slack.

It's really warming up  ;D