Bitcoin Forum

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

You do not believe we will touch 99?

Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

I think it can easily happen if Gox announces it is halting Fiat withdraws and news gets out that they are cash strapped, we'll see the same spike as we saw earlier at the end of May.

but, Gox has announced its halting Fiat withdraws...
but the news has been out their for some time now.

Seeing what makes this trajectory, it doesn't seem to have any relation to 'news', it behaves much more like a chaotic attractor.

Friday, August 23, 2013
$123

First of all, I don't believe any of those things. I have revised my opinion of the trajectory of Bitocin market development over time but these points have become fairly solidified.

There is no reason to expect that government clamp-downs, as you say, would cause price to decline. My position has been that this will introduce frictions which will cause exchange rate differentials, sometimes large differentials leading ultimately to a bifurcation of crypto-only, and crypto/native markets.

There is no reason to expect disinterest in market price to cause price to stagnate. In the short-mid term this is largely due to uncertainty. In the long term price will follow a similar pattern to what we have observed, with increasing volatility leading to a catastrophe which ultimately bifurcates the market. This behavior, I believe, can be described as a deterministic chaotic attractor. I am seeking to understand the mechanics of that system. In doing so I occasionally observe indicators that seem to provide useful information on an actionable time scale.

It is all experimental, very pre-alpha, use at your own risk. 

Going to Monte Carlo. I'll be back soon after I figure out all the dependencies.

If we don't reach $115 again by tomorrow this is done.

hysteresis loop

I don't know. It's hard to tell.

We might actually have a few up days in the cards before this turns around.

But as its sure to go down...  How low will it go?

No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

This update does not really have anything to do with recent developments. I just did a little data scrubbing and it changed the projection somewhat.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013
$119

Timing has always been a problem. I can not really tell how long the process will take, particularly since we are not trending as strongly now. But I am expecting sideways to down for a while.

Not too shabby.



What if x-axis was volume instead of time?

The erosion of momentum already pretty much guarantees a drop to $105...

It's already baked in.

That right there is the problem I have with EW. You can always go back and fit another set of waves that fit the rules according to new information.

Curve fitting.

Sorry, I missed it, I see now that you put the BTC.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   ;)

from what i recall, chod's prediction was moved earlier in time and lower in price each day until prediction and price converged at ~115 last week when he picked a local top on the 4-Hr charts. during a continued uptrend, we will cross all predicted prices and since local tops come every few days, its hard not to be right :) but its entertaining to read nonetheless.

Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Exactly.  At least Chodpaba uses some rigor and explains his methods.  I can't say that about a single other person on these boards.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Is this real life?

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

Maybe, if you fixate on a single indicator it can fit any number of scenarios.

Can't ignore horizontal support and resistance, momentum.

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

the base of what I hear
on board called speculation
is greed and naked fear
not sober calculation

If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 

Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

If it was shutting down Gox, i'm sure one of them would have the moral compass to tell us.

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

Gox is seriously starting to run out of BTC, its down to 55K, that's 2 weeks of mining.

If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

Now what did you do?

I know I'm not buying anything at this price.

At the rate things are going I'd have to extend the target another week.

$137 Thursday, September 05, 2013

I should have stayed with the original methodology, which still seems to be holding for indicating reversal from intermediate peaks. But reading an indicator after the fact and projecting where it will converge in the future are two different things. Mostly, there just wasn't enough information to do the projection. But basically, the closer to the convergence we get the easier it is to see where it will happen. But I can not really predict how fast it will happen.

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it :)

Markets stay irrational longer than the contents of your MtGox USD stash.....

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

To my experience, I would not expect to see the longer sustained uptrend that adamstgBit seems to be expecting unless it starts out much slower, for much longer.

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

Which people do you mean? The 50 people who read my posts?

lol

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

No, I can't. My landlord doesn't accept bitcoins. I suppose I could work with some no-name company like billpayforcoins to send a company check to my landlord through Bitpay (what % cut they take TBD)... but I can also just convert to fiat and pay myself. So why would I do that?

I could have done that several months ago, too, in the midst of the last downtrend.

or use this old service that now allows bitcoin payments, IF your landloard uses this old service, http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/8/prweb11063422.htm

because if you spend it you don't pay capital gains tax. can't pay capital gains tax without any capital gains

The idea is cool, unfortunately never heard of them. Still, same deal. Pay through Bitpay and and eat fees.

Re taxes, do you have a legal basis for saying that, or are you just playing with words? I don't think I agree, and anyone considering that route should have a sitdown with a good attorney.

The term "fair market value" comes to mind in re to US tax code. Don't know about Canada, but again..... tax attorney.

Specifically, Section 988 of IRC seems to account for a "gain from the sale or other disposition of property" which is a taxable event.

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately. :'(

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...


not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...

not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

Yeah, agreed, I would never think to declare gains on barter ordinarily. I'm more just thinking in the context of bitcoins, with sizable gains. Tax man makes me nervous.  :-\

This is somewhat bullish. A six page spread in The new issue of maximum pc http://m.imgur.com/a/6dDHQ

WTF is Maximum PC?  Do they have more than 1000 readers?

Ok, thanks for posting the new prediction.
However, it does not fit with my EW sub-sub-wave recognition. I expect the peak no later than tomorrow the 30th August, although I can't see any sign in market indicators yet.
The 30th fits from a temporal perspective, but not from money flow or MACD. And the peak could be quickly followed by a whale dump including the 127$ buy wall.
That's what happened in May, with a 25k+ BTC buy wall, also at 127$ IIRC. It could happen again.
Also, the 137$ peak value: it's too high IMO, it would require a buy of 1.8 M$ plus resistance. Do you see that much money available for the push?

$138

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

5. ???

Isn't it obvious? chodpaba him/herself is the whale driving up the price.

1. Post predictions based on some fancy experimental indicator.
2. Be ridiculed for prediction.
3. Initiate corresponding buying program (simple. doesn't need more than ~100k coins.)
4. Gain people's trust, after prediction is confirmed
5. ???
6. Profit

Thank you for the kind words, until now when I got close to the truth, I was called 'arrogant' and when I was way off I got called 'clueless'.
And I made many mistakes trading. For instance, after buying at 129.5$, because I expected a new peak, I've set my sell order at 139.95$.
But after seeing a lot of seller pressure, and being unsure if the new peak would be due to the market or the smart whale, I decided to
drop my sell price to 134.95$, just below the 135$ wall. When I noticed the whale buy and rushed to cancel my order, it was too late. Slapped myself.
I pondered for a couple of minutes if I should panic buy at 137$ and sell at about 140$, but when I was about to place my order, I was too late again.

I don't know when the expected big dump will happen. Maybe the smart whale will try another push up in a couple of days, but don't count on it.
If I were that whale I would try to maximize the profits by dumping big when the area ( integral ) local price * local buy sum would be the greatest.
As for my background, I am a graphics programmer, working in security printing, anti-counterfeiting, brand protection, authentication.

@notme: your advice is correct in general, but there are issues with it. I can only react to a developing situation if I am awake.
During the last month several times I wouldn't have been able to execute a plan, because I was still sleeping at 6 am ( my time ).
This time I was surprised to see the whale buy at 6 pm, when I was awake but not expecting it ( not by the whale ).
I should probably try to write a trading bot that would execute specific orders while I am asleep.

A stop order should also be placed if the operator is obliged to live the tape for more than a moment, or if the ticker suddenly is out of order. While he has his eye on the tape the market will tell him what to do. The moment this condition does not exist he must act as he would if temporarily stricken blind - he must protect himself from forces which may attack him in the dark.

I know a trader who once bought 500 shares of Sugar and then went out to lunch. He paid 25 cents for what he ate, but on the returning to the tape he found the total cost of that lunch was $5,000 and 25 cents! He had left no stop order, Sugar went down 10 points, and his broker sent him a margin call.

@Tzupy
Don't kid your self more people read than comment [...]

I think we need to start asking ourselves what happens when Gox really runs out of coins

Do you believe that we could go parabolic? Another 20k BTC out of the order book could trigger a parabolic rise IMO.
However, I suspect there's a smart whale who just wants the uber-bulls to believe that the market could go parabolic.

IF GOX RUNS OUT OF COINS THE WORLD WILL END.

Or maybe just the gox. But still.

If the price is right, more coins will come.

Conceptually, but not actually. Even though it might look like the tails of distributions might asymptotically approach infinity they are actually limited by the smallest unit volume. Which, I would estimate to be the sum of $trade volume to date divided by the current block reward.

I know, it is a large, ridiculous number. But when estimating the shape of a distribution curve it is a much more reasonable starting/ending place than infinity.

That is to say, theoretically, that is closer to what the actual price would be if those were the only BTC offered.

$177 Saturday, September 07, 2013

The projection is going to walk around a bit—get over it.

$167  Friday, September 06, 2013

Sept 11 of course it crashes at a peak of 177 to a crash of 111

LOL

Because the Taliban floods the market with cheap coins they stole by hacking people's wallets?  ;D

Edit: But, my thesis is also that if the rate of price increase manages to remain below a certain threshold then a rally can be sustained, at which point price growth is limited by another mechanism, for which I have another set of tools to monitor.  

After watching the evolution of the bid sum / ask sum ratio and also of the money flow index and MACD, I believe tomorrow the conditions
should be similar to those when the smart whale triggered the previous two rallys. If he waits for one more day, there's an increased risk that
the market will slump or we get a correction down. And I believe he wants to preserve the momentum, otherwise the panic buyers won't be willing
to buy his ( soon to be overpriced ) coins. I doubt that a large buy wall will form, a wall that the smart whale could dump into at the very top,
in order to collect maximum profit. So the best solution to maximize profit may be to persuade the panic buyers into buying high.
I already saw new sell orders distributed above 152, but these could belong to other whales, who want to take advantage of the move.
Please remember, this is not TA, it's WMA ( whale movement analysis ), and the smart whale might not act at all. In which case, the market
should still enter a new upward sub-sub-wave, but it will be lame IMO.

Smart whale would not want to increase slippage to the up side while still accumulating. It is smarter to wait for momentum to die down or pull back. Then you can buy more, with less slippage. For a big enough $whale the downside risk can be limited absolutely, unilaterally. They can buy everything that is offered. It is easy to see how many BTC are exposed to the market, but it is difficult to see how many $ are exposed. They may be able to know how many BTC they can buy, but they really have no way of knowing how many $ are available to drive price higher. Downside risk has a definable limit, but upside risk does not, and their position can be overrun to the upside, beyond their control. Believe me, they are seeking to maximize their BTC position by buying as low as they can for as long as they can. 

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

I still don't get why you want to assign responsibility for all movements to a single entity.  There is more than one whale in this ocean.

Out of curiousity, is it Gox or Bitstamp value projection?

Yup, big whales eat slightly smaller whales, they don't care that much about the minnows. This is what the game of "The Biggest Fish" is all about. They are after the biggest trade, on the biggest move, because that is the best they can do to keep their positions from being overrun. 

And whale strikes today as predicted, but I doubt it's the smart whale, doesn't fit the MO, should have waited just a bit longer.

The thing you want to learn is Systems Theory: http://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=14596

ordering now, thank you!

Paying close attention to this thread.

+1, the sole purpose I come to bitcointalk speculation :)

I've recently discovered chaos theory and have come to think it is probably relevant to most types of research although it is going largely ignored. Definitely more people should be made familiar with chaos theory and fractals.

The logistic map example helped me understand what they mean by "chaos".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map

This R script will run the logistic function with different parameters (default A from 1 to 4 by .1) and different starting points. You can see that for A between 1 and 3 the function always converges on a certain value, then as A is made larger x will oscillate between two values, then bifurcate a second time to oscillate between 4 values, then 8, then it eventually becomes chaotic (no repeating pattern no matter how many iterations).

R code:

http://s13.postimg.org/4pbnoxunr/logistic_map.png


The lorenz strange attractor is also pretty cool to mess around with:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorenz_system

This script will let you watch the system evolve over time from 3 different starting points. Even a tiny difference in initial state means you will not know what state the system will be in at any given point, but regardless of initial state you can know a probability distribution. You can also rotate the image as it runs and add stochastic noise to see what happens.

R code:

http://s23.postimg.org/gz1nnaz2z/lorenz.jpg

Sounds bullish.

https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitstamp-new-verification-requirements/ wonder if also ripple will be included

$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Hahah that seems so random. The recent drop in price has allowed it to move up higher ?

Hahah that seems so random. The recent drop in price has allowed it to move up higher ?

these dumps are showing us that support is high.

Could you explain ?

So the price movement has "passed the test", and will soon resume to climb upwards ?

I though that if a support is broken the price will then rest on the support below that, until the next rally where that support tends to function as resisitance.

But I feel a little bit like a kindergarten teacher talking to a Doctor in physics.


EDIT you ninja posted me, notme. Thanks for the explanation.

You saw support today? If yes I already saw it days ago in depth... There is no bid strength ATM.

Bid order depth does not correlate well with support.  The walls like to dance about when movement starts.

That is what I was talking about. If anyone saw support today he saw depth nothing more.

It's easy if you have a bill on your name. Many people don't have that.
I don't understand why ID isn't enough. Probably some strange law thing.

10k volume at $20 is quite different than at $145 by needing 6x more money fiat currency Etc

It's easy if you have a bill on your name. Many people don't have that.
I don't understand why ID isn't enough. Probably some strange law thing.

$192 Sunday, September 29, 2013

$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

$187 Friday, September 27, 2013

$192 Sunday, September 29, 2013

If you make enough predictions one of them are bound to be right. :P

$188 Thursday, September 26, 2013

If you make enough predictions one of them are bound to be right. :P

Merely a fluke. Please ignore.

Does your indicator get affected by flash crashes?
Is there such a thing as a flash crash in the bitcoin world?

Actually, there are a lot of funds that have never left the sidelines since the last ATH, based on what has actually executed. Which is a lot more than what is on the order book.

It does. We may have reversed at $148.70.

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

That speaks to the segment of the funds-holding population that is actually trading. There is a lot sitting on the sidelines.

It is a low information market.

edit: uninterestingly enough there is almost the same amount of volume between $136 down to $65.50 as there was from $65.50 back up to $148.70

However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 ??? I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.

$52.64			Wednesday, October 09, 2013

The way I interpreted it - we're going down, the lowest point being

If $75.20 is the median, it puts the max at $97.76. The range for October 9th is $52.64 - $97.76

All the dates are in October/November/December... nothing for this month, which leaves me confused as well.

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

... slightly more precise that saying we are going to "zero"—or "to da moon!!1!"  

I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

Okay, you have a list of numbers.  You put them in order.  Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count).  You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.

Not everyone is a math genius like yourself, so please forgive me oh Lord of the Numbers for utilizing the median as the literal center point of 2 numbers rather than the midpoint in a range data plots.

Those are just the outliers of the random sample I posted, a larger sampling would produce outliers even farther out.

The thing that is really hard to know though is how well the probability of those outliers occurring matches with the probability of predicting them—the future is tricksy like that.

I was taught the difference between mean, median, and mode in the 3rd grade.  Forgive me for assuming you got a similar education.

I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Before I was attempting a crude projection based on the use of median values, for price movement, time progression, and the components of the reversal indicator. With the addition of new data points these median values change slightly resulting in a variously changing forecast. This is neither principled, or rigorous, but it was easy so that's what I went with while working on improvements to the methodology that are more principled and rigorous, but are more work and are more calculation intensive.

Before, I was using indicators calibrated to either converge or diverge with price movement. But the calibration was not very robust. So, I reworked them so that they behave more like oscillators, and the calibration is based on a statistical measure instead of a fixed value, or a value determined by a calibrated convergence.

The points to which the indicators are calibrated is an intermediate price peak, this is one of many assumptions that go into the projection. The purpose of the reversal indicator is to show where a putative trend reversal has occurred. When this happens, that is the price and time target returned by the projection. What drives the projection is a simulation of price development based on a random variable that has a distribution similar to price development that occurred over a period of time in the price history. Because it is a random variable it will produce different values for the projection for each trial. What I am interested in is the distribution of these outcomes. This tells me a couple of things: What is most likely to happen given the distributions driving price development in the past, and how current price development statistically differs from past price development.

I figured that most people would be most interested in the median case, so I broke that out. But I also figured that some people might be interested in exactly what kind of variability can be expected from the output, so I included that. It is slightly more precise that saying we are going to "zero"—or "to da moon!!1!"  

Is it a possibility that the price will fluctuate between say 110$ and 150$, instead of following the natural course of a bear market?
The reason I'm asking is because today the long term parabolic SAR flipped sides again, now showing an upward trend.

My recognition of the EW says that we should experience a large drop no later than 2-3 days from now ( 13-14 September ), and then
enter a fake bull market. If this does not happen ( and right now it seems very unlikely ), then I think EW will be useless for long term predictions.

Oh, THAT's what you are laughing about.

I thought you were laughing at me.

All Y'all seemed to be confused by the raw output list, so here's a scatter plot.  

Yeah—scatter plots are fun.

https://i.imgur.com/j0t5rDO.png

Sorry, I would normally do a lot more trials but I am still in the middle of testing some updates and that takes too long.

That is the median case, but this is just a toy.

What I am looking at is an indicator which shows the likelihood that an intermediate reversal has occurred. It works by comparing how BTCOBV and $OBV track compared to price development in order to detect what regime of feedback effects is dominant.

Then I go back to look at the distribution of the change in price from bin to bin in the last leg before the last reversal and take the compliment of it to form a random variable going forward, there are actually 5 random variables involved which have some dependency re. the development of the reversal indicator, to provide a random trial of where it might turn again in the future, this is the output of the trial.

I am not actually certain that it is meaningful to assign a point probability to a particular outcome. It would be more meaningful to say, for instance, that there is a percentile case for price being above or below a target, or before or after a target. The median case as a rule of thumb would be the 50th percentile presuming a well-behaved Gaussian distribution. But I don't think that is a safe assumption. For one thing, I know that there are dependencies that I don't have worked into the (Markov chain) Monte Carlo yet.  

The latest.
$78.47   Friday, October 25, 2013   <—Median

Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.

I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:

Friday, September 20, 2013   $130.27

I approve of this prediction(projection)!

Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here?

Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.

I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:

Friday, September 20, 2013   $130.27

syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.

It is tempting to infer a psychology based on such 'fundamentals' but how do you measure that? What I am actually seeing is nothing more that a repetition of behaviors that can actually be measured. Until I see evidence that tells me something different I still have to base my conclusions on what can be demonstrated.

Right now I am taking a more principled look at the distribution of price movement, and I have discovered an interesting correlation between the standard deviation of movement from bin to bin, and momentum. It shows that as momentum picks up in either direction the standard deviation increases, and when momentum starts to reverse the standard deviation decreases. We have already gone through a period where the standard deviation has reached a minimum and it is now increasing again. I expect momentum to pick up in a downward direction. More to come...

did US boom them?

$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

$175 Saturday, September 21, 2013

$187 Friday, September 27, 2013

$192 Sunday, September 29, 2013

just buy Buy BUY...

 :D

A lesson that I learnt the hard way: you should never dump all.

Lessing I learned the hard way: you should never go all-in.

A lesson that I learnt the hard way: you should never dump all.

There is no risk for selling now, but there is a risk for holding. Selling everything is always a safe bet.

It wasn't for the poor buggers who sold everything @ $30 before the $240 spike. Not that I am saying we are in the same situation now, but you never know...

There is no risk for selling now, but there is a risk for holding. Selling everything is always a safe bet.

the risk you perceive for holding bitcoin is greatly exaggerated, and you fail to recognize the risk with holding everything in USD

lol

I'm not sure that I can but let's start from the beginning.

First of all, I don't really use time at all in my conception of this process we call the market. Without understanding this we are not speaking the same language. The very first thing I do before anything else happens is to compress the raw time series into bins of similar sized Bitcoin volume. The size of these bins is not arbitrary, but is based on a limit having to do with an extreme of price expectation as defined by ATH peaks. And it attempts to track how this limit slowly evolves over time, which means that the mean size of the bins grows slightly smaller as we progress.

It is not possible for now to explain exactly why I do this but the thing to understand is that this is my starting point, all further analysis is built from this foundation. I will tell you that the minimum bin size is currently about 5,000 BTC, so each discrete chunk of data in the analysis is at least that size. For the purpose of the analysis I have been describing in this thread it is sufficient to consider that I am working from chunks of data (High, Low, VWA, BTCVol, $Vol, Timestamp) that have a minimum size of about 5,000 BTC.

You have probably observed that OBV generally tracks up and down with price, but not exactly, proportionately. That is, when price goes up, OBV also generally goes up, but not always by the exact same proportion. BTCOBV and $OBV also track this progression of price differently. In order to see how this difference in how OBV tracks price changes with the progress of the market I find it useful to look at a ratio of OBV to price. Except that if you were to do this for each and every bin (discrete sample) the result would be very noisy and it would be difficult to see a clear trend. In order to get around this problem I will look at how the median value, of say the las 100 samples, of OBV compares with the median of the last 100 samples of price. Kind of like a moving average, except instead of using an average I use the median value. There is very good reason to use a median instead of an average as a median is less sensitive to "shocks", that is it does not jump as much if there is a single sample in your series that is much higher, or much lower than the rest of the series. And so, the result tends to be less 'noisy'.

I do this separately, for BTCOBV/Price and $OBV/Price, and then look at the difference between them. What happens is that as price increases above an equilibrium point the difference between these ratios increases, and as price declines below an equilibrium point the difference increases in the other direction. You can 'sharpen' the response of this difference by calibrating the number of samples you are looking at. That is, if you see that there is 115 samples between an intermediate High price and Low price it helps to set the length of your 'moving median' to the same length. Then it is easier to see when an intermediate reversal has actually happened.

The tricksy thing to know is how 'valid' this calibration is, that calibration is one of many assumptions that has to be made in order to attempt a projection going forward. The way I try to measure this, all things being relative, is to see how high is high, and how low is low compared to what has happened before. This BTCOBV/Price - $OBV/Price wiggle goes up and down, kind of like an oscillator, but it isn't 'normalized'. In order to normalize it I will look at what the Percent Rank of the current value is compared to a certain number of samples of the indicator going backward. That is, if going backward 100 samples there are just as many samples above the current value as below it then the Percent Rank is 50%. By doing this I am hoping to get a gauge of the statistical significance of how high, or how low the current value is compared to the past.

But here you have to make another one of those assumptions. Generally, I think the most recent data is more important, but by using too small a sample for comparison there is a risk of 'over fitting' the data. As a rule of thumb when I am trying to set the calibration for how far back to look for this statistical significance, if I think we are at a peak I will take that value and go back until I find a value that is at the same height. Then if it is a high peak this calibration is set to 100%. I generally find that point about twice a many samples back as the calibration used for the 'moving median' of the reversal indicator. This is important—because the sample 'bins' are of similar volume the assumption that is being made is that similar behavior can be inferred for a similar passage of BTC volume in the future. If, for instance, you observe that the behavior going forward is not, in fact, similar you need to go back and reassess your assumptions.

Now, for the price projection... Here I look at the distribution of the change in the VWA from bin to bin. That is, VWA for the current bin divided by the VWA for the last bin, etc. So if the VWA for the current bin is $141.80, and the last bin is $140.38 then that differential is .990. Given the assumption of similar behavior for similar passage of volume I will then generate a random variable based on the distribution of those differentials for a certain calibration interval. So, if the current price is $141.80 and the random variable returns .990 I multiply that by the current price to yield a random walk to a projected value for the next bin of $140.38. If I believe that price will go down, and I am taking samples from increasing prices in the past I will invert the distribution in order to obtain am approximate complementary distribution. So if a sample from that distribution is .99 I subtract it from 2 to get 1.01... And do this for every sample to get an approximate complement for the distribution. (Ack! No) So if a sample from that distribution is .99 I invert it (1/.99) to get 1.01... And do this for every sample to get an approximate complement for the distribution.

This is a part that I am still working on. In order to simulate the progression of the reversal indicator into the future I plug in values from the random variables and just calculate it out like I would as if I were using actual data. It requires price, BTCVol and $Vol. Price and BTCVol are for now treated as independent variables with no dependence, and $Vol is derived from price and BTCVol. I know there are probabilistic dependencies that I am not considering for this simulation, I just don't have them all worked in yet. That is why I say it is a toy, there is rigor that I know should be included that has not been included yet.

As well, I am treating the random variable for time as independent, which is really not part of the calculation at all, but the progression of time in the projection has a similar random distribution as a sample in the past. Same goes for probabilistic dependencies here that have not been included.

So the random trial progresses until there is an indication of a reversal by the calibrated reversal indicator and the price and the time coordonate are output, this is what is shown on the scatter plot. Normally I would do about 200 trials. This takes about three hours. If I am doing a smaller test I might just do 20 trials to see if everything is working. Some trials throw out a null error if no reversal is indicated, but I think this could be useful too. Right now I am considering that a large number of error outputs could indicate that we are moving int a regime where this particular methodology is not as useful, or it could indicate that some of the assumptions need to be revised.

It is very much a work in progress.

I actually do count the default minimum value for volume-per-bin as slowly decreasing. It is a line that is slowly decreasing based on a calibration at the $32 peak and a calibration at the $266 peak.

Yes, it does get messier the farther out you go. Dependencies that are easier to see in the actual data start to break down for the projected variables, and it starts looking less and less like 'natural' data. Going out as far as I am trying to go with this method is a real stretch.

Can you help me understand

1. How can this chart [Or, the theory behind it] be dis-proven?

Say for example, Novermber 4th, the price  is $175. This is an outlier yet it is "correct"... however, that means  at least 30 other data points are wrong.

So, how do you make use of the chart? It seems like the only way it can be "right" is if the price is within the 2 red vertical bands, E.G. $75-90 Oct. 7 thru Oct 27. Outside of that? Not enough data.

2. If the band is the only area that matters, why chart outliers? If they are hit, it means the system is mostly saying, "Tomorrow the price will be between 100 and 200 USD." Which really isnt valuable information. I guarantee to you that it will. But does this really help you or me in our trading decisions? No.

I dont mean to come off as rude; I really like your analysis. Its just this chart is throwing me off.

I guess I don't understand what you mean by z-score in this context...  :-\

Lol what?
Guess what will happen to USD when dollar will loose it's monopoly on oil.
Hint (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation)

In about 5 years oil is going to be useless because you can run all the worlds machine with a infinite supply of cosmic energy. Nikole Tesla patented his machine in 1901

Just wanted to add that in their with the oil talk

Cool story.  Could you link to the patent that describes how it works?  All US patents are public record.

Cool story.  Could you link to the patent that describes how it works?  All US patents are public record.

sure

http://www.google.com/patents/US685957

the elite and oil bankers like to keep this patent a nice secret to keep the oil bankers in business, but not for much longer. Truth is spreading like a wildfire now-a-days..

People have been talking about this shit for years. Amirite?

sure

http://www.google.com/patents/US685957

the elite and oil bankers like to keep this patent a nice secret to keep the oil bankers in business, but not for much longer. Truth is spreading like a wildfire now-a-days..

I hate to take such a great thread off track, but two quick points:
1. If there was profit in this (and there would be if it was as powerful as you assume), bankers would be all over it.
2. Collection of electromagnetic radiation (which is what this patent describes) can not possibly supply US energy demands, let alone "all the world's machinery".  Try working out the physics sometime.  There just isn't enough energy there, even if we could collect it all.

During the last 4 days the bid sum has been relatively stable, and the increase in ask sum of the 15th
failed to trigger a large drop, mainly due to the low volume IMO. Right now there is a drop in money flow,
remains to be seen how long it will last and if it will lead to a significant price drop.

OT, regarding energy production with a Rossi reactor, check this PDF:
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1305/1305.3913.pdf

Backtesting has shown that I should reduce the sampling interval—by quite a bit. I am using more local samples now, which produces a less dramatic result.

https://i.imgur.com/XAke69p.png

panic sell incoming

ETA 30 min

i'm curious, if we do have another correction where would you place support?

net worth $260 million.... to da mooooon!!

I have published my calls for the next week here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295346.msg3194463#msg3194463

I doubt the support concept works here. The correction that happened yesterday had just 2 dumps, one small one large,
then a strong rebound due to thin asks. If a correction gets close to 125$ without further rolling the price imbalance, the price will stabilize there.
But that would be in contradiction with the EW theory, which says that the local bottom should be deeper than the one of the 7th.
So I placed my buy order just above 120$, but right now I'm not sure if it will drop that low.

:yawn: @ 1 hour now.

thar she blows matey 125 --> 121

that's not really panic

I don't understand how chodpabas charts are predicting the future price...

Is it based on current trends? Because that doesn't take into account if we get big news, good news, bad news, bitcoin etf passes, huge headlines on mainstream media, gox pays out

Just one of those variables can change the whole perspective

Almost time for a pop to the upside ..

I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.

I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.

It is intended to be an estimate for a projected intermediate trend reversal. The median value is my estimate of the 50th percentile outcome. That is, I think there is an equal probability that this will occur above, or below the price target, and either before or after the indicated date.

Have you worked with Markov chains?

It is the output of many montecarlo trials. Actually. What is shown are the quantiles of the distribution of those trials, not an average, anywhere.

I have the raw input data redimensioned into 'bins' of similar amounts of BTC volume. You might think of these bins kind of like candles, with a high and low price, a volume weighted average, etc. The markov is constructed in part from discrete samples the percent change of the VWA from bin to bin going back in the history by a certain number of samples. But I selectively invert these samples depending on if they are a member of either an uptrending or downtrending price regime as identified by what I have been calling a "reversal indicator" which is really troublesome to describe.

Here'e why I am doing this. The reversal indicator shows pretty clearly when we change between uptrending and downtrending price regimes, but only after the fact. It is pretty easy to look at an indicator after the fact to see what it is showing, that's no big whoop. So what I am trying to do is to see if I can project this indicator to see if I can tell when it is about to turn. That's what this is all about.  

I actually base the tuning on a Bayesian posterior analysis. The calibrations in question are a minimum sample size for the first step in the chain, and the sample size grows at a certain calibrated rate with each subsequent step. I don't care to share exactly what those calibrations are. But I really want to emphasize that time is not used at all as an independent variable, I am only considering the passage of trade volume. Many tests have demonstrated to me that this is key to reducing variance.

As far as the up/down goes, that is based on the reversal indicator. What this does basically is to compare the difference between how BTCOBV and $OBV change in relation to price. The response of this indicator is much sharper at transitions of trend regimes than can be seen just by looking at price. My working theory is that it shows when either BTC or $ at play during the last regime become nearly exhasted, and the trend reverses.

It is usually winds up being higher volume at the bottoms and lower volume at the tops.

In my best estimation that might describe a lower bound on an intermediate scale. But right now I am considering that we won't be trending strongly enough on an intermediate scale to rely on trend reversals the way I have been looking at them. My working thesis at the moment is that we can look forward to the 'slow grind'.

But I have to ask, MACD using what data? There are some who would say that Gox data should simply be dismissed.

On an intermediate time scale (monthly) I think we will be trending less strongly than we have in the price swings since the $266 peak. To set us up the bomb would be a long, slow grind like we experienced in the latter half of 2012. Which we most likely wont see if we have a sizeable runup too early.

As long as they are not too deep, some dips along the way will actually increase the potential for a higher peak at the end of the grind, because they build belief in price strength.