.

[Kazu]

By this logic spreads should always be moving outward toward infinity.

Conceptually, but not actually. Even though it might look like the tails of distributions might asymptotically approach infinity they are actually limited by the smallest unit volume. Which, I would estimate to be the sum of $trade volume to date divided by the current block reward.

I know, it is a large, ridiculous number. But when estimating the shape of a distribution curve it is a much more reasonable starting/ending place than infinity.

That is to say, theoretically, that is closer to what the actual price would be if those were the only BTC offered.

Sure, the only problem is, the $trade volume to date divided by the current block reward is approaching infinity.

Hint: The problem with this logic is that the price will GO UP.

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[adamstgBit]

$177 Saturday, September 07, 2013

The projection is going to walk around a bit—get over it.

ya me too i keep pushing up my target 

[vphen]

$167  Friday, September 06, 2013

hope the whale is still there and hungry.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Sept 11 of course it crashes at a peak of 177 to a crash of 111

[adpinbr]

on the basis of what? that if people don't think its a bubble cause it rises relatively slow, that a price north of 300 will be sustained? You think we are back on an upwards cain that is sustainable? I thought you said we haven't bottomed out yet?

[JimboToronto]

Sept 11 of course it crashes at a peak of 177 to a crash of 111

LOL

Because the Taliban floods the market with cheap coins they stole by hacking people's wallets? 

[Swordsoffreedom]

Sept 11 of course it crashes at a peak of 177 to a crash of 111

LOL

Because the Taliban floods the market with cheap coins they stole by hacking people's wallets? 

Oh shoot you took away the spolier alert 

[phoenix1]

Nope, just when the few decide the sheeple are not buying any more and decide to smack the price again

[McGyver]

Edit: But, my thesis is also that if the rate of price increase manages to remain below a certain threshold then a rally can be sustained, at which point price growth is limited by another mechanism, for which I have another set of tools to monitor.  

Wow, that sounded very mysteriously... Could you elaborate?

I presume this other limiting mechanism is somehow related to coins needed to "feed" the miners, i.e. fresh fiat inflow is required to balance with freshly mined coins. How it does balance depends on the current exchange rate. Right?

[Tzupy]

I believe it's not related to miners in particular. If the rate of price increase is too fast, the momentum required for a parabolic rise can't build up.
It will fizzle much sooner, although it will reach a peak. And after the peak, it can only go down, making the bears happy. 

[Tzupy]

After watching the evolution of the bid sum / ask sum ratio and also of the money flow index and MACD, I believe tomorrow the conditions
should be similar to those when the smart whale triggered the previous two rallys. If he waits for one more day, there's an increased risk that
the market will slump or we get a correction down. And I believe he wants to preserve the momentum, otherwise the panic buyers won't be willing
to buy his ( soon to be overpriced ) coins. I doubt that a large buy wall will form, a wall that the smart whale could dump into at the very top,
in order to collect maximum profit. So the best solution to maximize profit may be to persuade the panic buyers into buying high.
I already saw new sell orders distributed above 152, but these could belong to other whales, who want to take advantage of the move.
Please remember, this is not TA, it's WMA ( whale movement analysis ), and the smart whale might not act at all. In which case, the market
should still enter a new upward sub-sub-wave, but it will be lame IMO.

[Odalv]

After watching the evolution of the bid sum / ask sum ratio and also of the money flow index and MACD, I believe tomorrow the conditions
should be similar to those when the smart whale triggered the previous two rallys. If he waits for one more day, there's an increased risk that
the market will slump or we get a correction down. And I believe he wants to preserve the momentum, otherwise the panic buyers won't be willing
to buy his ( soon to be overpriced ) coins. I doubt that a large buy wall will form, a wall that the smart whale could dump into at the very top,
in order to collect maximum profit. So the best solution to maximize profit may be to persuade the panic buyers into buying high.
I already saw new sell orders distributed above 152, but these could belong to other whales, who want to take advantage of the move.
Please remember, this is not TA, it's WMA ( whale movement analysis ), and the smart whale might not act at all. In which case, the market
should still enter a new upward sub-sub-wave, but it will be lame IMO.

I think "smart whale" removed bid (as usually) because he wants buy at lower price. He will wait few days and then he will buy all ask walls.

[notme]

After watching the evolution of the bid sum / ask sum ratio and also of the money flow index and MACD, I believe tomorrow the conditions
should be similar to those when the smart whale triggered the previous two rallys. If he waits for one more day, there's an increased risk that
the market will slump or we get a correction down. And I believe he wants to preserve the momentum, otherwise the panic buyers won't be willing
to buy his ( soon to be overpriced ) coins. I doubt that a large buy wall will form, a wall that the smart whale could dump into at the very top,
in order to collect maximum profit. So the best solution to maximize profit may be to persuade the panic buyers into buying high.
I already saw new sell orders distributed above 152, but these could belong to other whales, who want to take advantage of the move.
Please remember, this is not TA, it's WMA ( whale movement analysis ), and the smart whale might not act at all. In which case, the market
should still enter a new upward sub-sub-wave, but it will be lame IMO.

Smart whale would not want to increase slippage to the up side while still accumulating. It is smarter to wait for momentum to die down or pull back. Then you can buy more, with less slippage. For a big enough $whale the downside risk can be limited absolutely, unilaterally. They can buy everything that is offered. It is easy to see how many BTC are exposed to the market, but it is difficult to see how many $ are exposed. They may be able to know how many BTC they can buy, but they really have no way of knowing how many $ are available to drive price higher. Downside risk has a definable limit, but upside risk does not, and their position can be overrun to the upside, beyond their control. Believe me, they are seeking to maximize their BTC position by buying as low as they can for as long as they can. 

This.  A smart whale would be accumulating for a longer term trade, not just pumping and dumping the daily chart.

[Tzupy]

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

[adamstgBit]

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

most bitcoiners are doing good, some held on to most of what they had and are doing really good... its all good!

[notme]

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

I still don't get why you want to assign responsibility for all movements to a single entity.  There is more than one whale in this ocean.

[Odalv]

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

I think you will be stupid if you buy 20k btc @ $135 and then you will sell them @ $120

[xxjs]

I think the whales are not all smart.

[Tzupy]

You seem to believe that the smart whale wants to accumulate coins. I don't think so. I believe he has already accumulated
lots of coins at sub 100 prices and now it's just a game of selling to suckers at the highest possible price. We'll see soon enough.

I still don't get why you want to assign responsibility for all movements to a single entity.  There is more than one whale in this ocean.

I firmly believe there is one smart whale triggering the upward moves ( pumping up the price ), other whales panic buy and then minnows panic buy.
If the smart whale wouldn't make the triggering move, market movement upward would be slower ( lower slope ) and of lower amplitude.

[Nemo1024]

Out of curiousity, is it Gox or Bitstamp value projection?