.

[oda.krell]

Or the effect isn't picked up because that way of looking at it is too coarse, and the leading time might not be constant either, for example could depend on volume or volatility, in which case your global offset wouldn't be the right tool either.

[oda.krell]

This goes completely against my intuition on this, and my (non testable, I admit) observations. Like I already said, I never expected a one-way influence of one on the other with a constant lead time, but I expect there to be some consistent effect. I have no idea of showing it though, so I have to come back to it when I can think of a way.

[oda.krell]

for clarity, that's a 30 min fixed offset over the entire history you test on, right?

(by the way, how do you run those tests? something custom made or matlab+mtgox data?)

[bucktotal]

another way to look at this, which would also filter for specific sized events, is to do an event-triggered average.

the event could be a price movement of X% (e.g +/- 5) with a volume requirement of Y std dev (e.g. 3) away from the mean for the exchange over some time Z (eg. 4hr). this would then filter for only the largest events on the respective exchanges.

then take those timestamps (t=0) and select the data from the other exchange from say t +/- 4 hrs. make 2 event-triggered averages, bitstamp-triggered Gox average, and Gox-triggered bitstamp average.

alter the variables x,y,z to increase or decrease sensitivity.

[Tzupy]

Chodpaba, would you like to share with us an updated prediction for today's peak?
Yesterday I expected a rather large buy, not whale but large enough to move the price up a bit.
Very short term market indicators were improving and several times small players tried to start
a mini-rally, but seller pressure was too high and kept pushing them back. Considering the
high seller pressure ( as I write this ), is the 137$ peak still in the cards?

And if you investigated and found some reasons for the error to predict the last big rise?
I tried to find the error in my EW recognition, and beside the obvious mistake of counting the
rebound as the first sub-wave, I found that the noise in the price is too high to accurately
recognize EW (actually, sub-sub-waves). From the 20th to the 23rd August there were too many
ups and downs, courtesy of the panic buyers, and the sub-sub-waves got distorted badly.
I do however see promise in counting sub-sub-waves in market indicators, other than price.

[Tzupy]

At the rate things are going I'd have to extend the target another week.

$137 Thursday, September 05, 2013

I should have stayed with the original methodology, which still seems to be holding for indicating reversal from intermediate peaks. But reading an indicator after the fact and projecting where it will converge in the future are two different things. Mostly, there just wasn't enough information to do the projection. But basically, the closer to the convergence we get the easier it is to see where it will happen. But I can not really predict how fast it will happen.

Ok, thanks for posting the new prediction.
However, it does not fit with my EW sub-sub-wave recognition. I expect the peak no later than tomorrow the 30th August, although I can't see any sign in market indicators yet.
The 30th fits from a temporal perspective, but not from money flow or MACD. And the peak could be quickly followed by a whale dump including the 127$ buy wall.
That's what happened in May, with a 25k+ BTC buy wall, also at 127$ IIRC. It could happen again.
Also, the 137$ peak value: it's too high IMO, it would require a buy of 1.8 M$ plus resistance. Do you see that much money available for the push?

[rampantparanoia]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

[rampantparanoia]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it

[adamstgBit]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

[Wekkel]

Markets stay irrational longer than the contents of your MtGox USD stash.....

[adamstgBit]

Markets stay irrational longer than the contents of your MtGox USD stash.....

ya

and IMO this market hasn't hit the irrational stage yet...

Its perfectly rational to think 1BTC will soon be worth 200-500$ given the bitcoins relentless growth, and peoples ever increasing confidence in it, due to a worldwide phenomenon know as, getting butt fucked by your bank.

hehehehe  

[oda.krell]

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

I did a quick analysis earlier today, comparing the late May situation (that ended in the month long downtrend)  to now. Using the indicators and tools that I usually find reliable, I can't see a fundamental difference between now and then.

Which doesn't mean that we're heading for a reversal, just that, with one difference(*) perhaps, May and August look similar, and the former situation saw to a drastic, rather unexpected, reversal.

(*) the one difference I can see and that I would say is perhaps relevant is the duration of the uptrend until the reversal: when price started to fall in May, we only had a two week run-up behind us. Today, we're in a solid uptrend for almost two months.

[adamstgBit]

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

I did a quick analysis earlier today, comparing the late May situation (that ended in the month long downtrend)  to now. Using the indicators and tools that I usually find reliable, I can't see a fundamental difference between now and then.

Which doesn't mean that we're heading for a reversal, just that, with one difference(*) perhaps, May and August look similar, and the former situation saw to a drastic, rather unexpected, reversal.

(*) the one difference I can see and that I would say is perhaps relevant is the duration of the uptrend until the reversal: when price started to fall in May, we only had a two week run-up behind us. Today, we're in a solid uptrend for almost two months.

To my experience, I would not expect to see the longer sustained uptrend that adamstgBit seems to be expecting unless it starts out much slower, for much longer.

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

[MAbtc]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

[adamstgBit]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

[MAbtc]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

[adamstgBit]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

[MAbtc]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

No, I can't. My landlord doesn't accept bitcoins. I suppose I could work with some no-name company like billpayforcoins to send a company check to my landlord through Bitpay (what % cut they take TBD)... but I can also just convert to fiat and pay myself. So why would I do that?

I could have done that several months ago, too, in the midst of the last downtrend.

[adamstgBit]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

Which people do you mean? The 50 people who read my posts?

lol

lol

i'm sorry I trolled your thread,

i can't help but spread bullishness everywhere.

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

No, I can't. My landlord doesn't accept bitcoins. I suppose I could work with some no-name company like billpayforcoins to send a company check to my landlord through Bitpay (what % cut they take TBD)... but I can also just convert to fiat and pay myself. So why would I do that?

I could have done that several months ago, too, in the midst of the last downtrend.

or use this old service that now allows bitcoin payments, IF your landloard uses this old service, http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/8/prweb11063422.htm

because if you spend it you don't pay capital gains tax. can't pay capital gains tax without any capital gains