.

[Flappy]

This update does not really have anything to do with recent developments. I just did a little data scrubbing and it changed the projection somewhat.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013
$119

Not too shabby.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?

Timing has always been a problem. I can not really tell how long the process will take, particularly since we are not trending as strongly now. But I am expecting sideways to down for a while.

What if x-axis was volume instead of time?

[1714834583]

1714834583

[Odalv]

This update does not really have anything to do with recent developments. I just did a little data scrubbing and it changed the projection somewhat.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013
$119

Not too shabby.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?

Timing has always been a problem. I can not really tell how long the process will take, particularly since we are not trending as strongly now. But I am expecting sideways to down for a while.

What if x-axis was volume instead of time?

We will see tomorrow? :-) ... ( August 21, 2013 $124 very good.)

[Tzupy]

The erosion of momentum already pretty much guarantees a drop to $105...

It's already baked in.

Wow, that's a bold prediction, if I would make it I would get laughed at.
In fact, I have been laughed at because I complained that panic buyers don't let the price drop to 115.
I expected a third rally up to 130, then a drop to about 105, in 2 phases. Do you say there won't be any rally to 130?

[Tzupy]

Ok, thanks for the answer. I suspected that some 40k - 50k BTC missing from the order book would add
to the 19k till 130 we see in the order book. And there are also those who got stuck at the end of May. So the 80k estimate
of yours is plausible. But the up uP UP crowd claims that those coins missing from the order book are out of Gox.

I sold yesterday at 120 (not great, I know) and am waiting for the price to drop. After reading your evaluation, I'll just wait and see.

[Tzupy]

Yes, I know you meant 80k BTC, just wasn't clear in my reply, only put the BTC sign at the first sum.

After reading your estimation, I looked again at the Elliot waves, and realized that I didn't count the rebound
of August 9th as the first sub-wave. When counting that one too, we have hit the third and most powerful
sub-wave of wave 5. I expect a 4th sub-wave to happen, drop to about 114, then rise to about 120 again,
and then some erratic behavior for several days, followed by the 2 large drops with a rebound between them
and a larger rebound after the second drop. We'll see soon enough...

[AU]

That right there is the problem I have with EW. You can always go back and fit another set of waves that fit the rules according to new information.

Curve fitting.

Sorry, I missed it, I see now that you put the BTC.

im surprised ur prediction proved accurate thus far. if the price rebounds like u say you will have added another devout follower

/bow

[HeliKopterBen]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

[HeliKopterBen]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   

[bucktotal]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   

from what i recall, chod's prediction was moved earlier in time and lower in price each day until prediction and price converged at ~115 last week when he picked a local top on the 4-Hr charts. during a continued uptrend, we will cross all predicted prices and since local tops come every few days, its hard not to be right but its entertaining to read nonetheless.

[Tzupy]

It's funny that nobody believed that 'fluke' except chodpaba himself at that time.
I expressed a strong disbelief in the 124 $ on August 21st prediction.
If I would have based my transactions on the 'fluke' I would have done much better...

[HeliKopterBen]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

A
Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   

from what i recall, chod's prediction was moved earlier in time and lower in price each day until prediction and price converged at ~115 last week when he picked a local top on the 4-Hr charts. during a continued uptrend, we will cross all predicted prices and since local tops come every few days, its hard not to be right but its entertaining to read nonetheless.

Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

[notme]

Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

Exactly.  At least Chodpaba uses some rigor and explains his methods.  I can't say that about a single other person on these boards.

[Odalv]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Unbelievable but proper.

[bucktotal]

Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

Exactly.  At least Chodpaba uses some rigor and explains his methods.  I can't say that about a single other person on these boards.

yes i do appreciate his thought process and laying it out for all to see.

i also think he also came to the conclusion that prices on gox swing like an over-damped (and btw, very biologically tuned) oscillator. this has been true for at least a while and a very profitable piece of info.

[dwdoc]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Nailed it!

[Ares]

Is this real life?

[adamstgBit]

Is this real life?

no.

this is bitcointalk.org, real life is outside N'stuff 

[xxjs]

So where are the noteworthy peaks?

[Tzupy]

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

[notme]

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

Or just a 3 wave correction.  Sure, short - mid term bear, but I don't see any signs of a major, long term top.  5 waves up indicates the one larger trend is still up.  If we do get 5 waves down on the same timescale as the 5 up, then I'll have to reconsider.