Bitcoin Forum

Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).

yes there is a "Pro trader" that visit this sub-forum, you should watch his movements and listen to every move and analyze, he also have a "club" of multi-millionaire investors...

he talks about how many millions he has made and what kind of cigars he smokes and fancy car he drives so I guess that give some credibility to his posts and predictions ;)


this is his profile, watch his posts and keep us updated about taking his advises....     https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=68520

I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

Generally rpteila makes lousy predictions (deliberately or not, who knows?), use caution.  Also, I have my doubts as to whether he really is a big fish.  It's very easy to fake such things.

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

This is my new Holder's Manifesto, going to pull it out any time some muppet starts going on about how buying and holding is foolish versus trading.

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?

Real was a poor choice of words on the OPs part.  You know what he meant.

For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.

This is *exactly* why i don't trade btc.  I hear way too many horror stories about people not being able to get their money out of btc exchanges, not getting good fills on their buy or sell orders or getting screwed somehow.  i just watch the btc charts and post on these forums out of curiosity.  I'll stick to trading stocks for the time being.  There's enough money to be made there that I don't need to risk my money at some fly by night btc exchange that is based in Bulgaria or some shady country like that.

And Mt. Gox was originally a Magic the Gathering trading site???  no thanks.

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  Investing/trading on emotions is like burning money.  Don't even get me started on astrology.  Might as well trade according to your horoscope in your local paper.

Anything that has prices that can be charted can be analyzed according to TA.  Btc has prices can be charted.  Ergo TA can be used on btc.

troll

They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.

good point.  people ridicule what they don't understand.

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.

I don't trade bitcoins.  I used to day trade stocks a long time ago, but i don't anymore.  I invest in stocks now.

Govt regulation can be a good and bad thing.  They can be good b/c they can legitimize something new like bitcoin or they can outright ban something.  As for people who think bitcoin will replace govt issued fiat money anytime in the near future (meaning in the next 50 years) they are delusional.  The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

Post of the year.

I trade in Spread Betting of Forex, Index and so on.

TA is simply reading a visual representation (aka chart) of prices in daily, weekly, hourly etc. increments.  Those are real things that have actually happened in real life.  TA does not claim to predict exactly future price movements.  It merely provides the trader with an educated framework with which to increase the probability of profitable trades.  It also allows a trader to identify entry and exit points with limited downside and defined exit levels should a trade move against him.  It also identifies previous support and resistance levels.

I don't know what your knowlege of TA is or who told it was a "science" like biology or physics but its not.  No one who uses it should claim it to be.  Its simply chart reading.

And do you not believe that hunches or intuition and dreams are not influenced by human emotions such as fear and greed or excitement?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.

Agreed.  I think the statistic is that 95 or 98% of people who try trading lose and fail at trading.  More trading = more losses or at least less profits. 

Its because those 98% can't overcome human emotion of fear and greed/excitement when trading.  They become fearful when prices drop and trades go against them so they sell.  They get excited or greedy when prices go up or when they have profits and they buy or they hold when they should be selling and taking profits.  Its the old buy high, sell low.

They can't follow the old Warren Buffet mantra, "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."  In other words buy low, sell high.

So Coinbase is a threat ?  LOL ...
Yes all these exchanges will just up and take all our money with them.
Thats a rational paranoia.
Honestly that tells me you aren't too familiar with what is going on.  All due respect.

To the original poster:  the LAST people you want to ask about bitcoin are the people who have been involved IN ANY CAPACITY in the obsolete financial world.

Those are the biggest naysayers, the most skeptical, the least informed, and the most confused by what Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin violates every rule they have ever learned, and it drives them insane.  Please only use such individuals for personal entertainment.

-B-

Besides the point that the US accounts for only 4% of the global population and assuming "the govt" will be interpreted as "the US govt" is silly, there is also the issue that the US government has delegated its currency issuance authority the the Federal Reserve, which is a privately owned bank.

Where is Sheep Market? Where is their money? Where is Silk Road? Where is BuySellBitCo.in ? Where  is....hang on...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0


 Bitcoin is cool but it is not going to end finance, sorry. And until there is legal and technological stability the exchanges are high risk. I do not care at all where you put your money though. Good luck.

win.

God damn, that's sig-worthy.


Huh?  There are probably a dozen exchanges which have been hacked, shut down by a gov, or had owners who absconded with client funds/coins.  It's a real threat.  It boggles my mind that whales are comfortable sitting on millions on these exchanges.

Regarding your disdain for professionals from the "obsolete financial world" .. you obviously don't understand the parallels between Bitcoin and forex/commodities trading.

I'm picturing a freight train loaded with nickels derailing inside a tunnel and them shooting out at the other side. That's bitcoin for me.

K

For the newbies, a point of clarification.

The architecture of bitcoin is a radical departure from most of the financial world, but not all of it. In absolute terminology, they are a structured derivative. Most likely if they survive (I am betting they will), they will ultimately be absorbed into the financial industry as that product type.

While "swapping paper back and forth" is a useful metaphor, the fact is virtually all derivatives and currencies are already digital. I have not ever in my two decades actively trading transacted any paper for any other paper, aside from a brief foray into the trading floor where there were actually paper tickets, but even those represented something else, not the paper.

In the last year I have bought and sold soybeans, wheat, corn, natural gas, gold, platinum, palladium, crude oil, euros, yen, SA Rand, and option on several of those as well.

I have only been to a soybean field once ever. Didn't like it. Have enjoyed the occasional edamame with my sushi. I couldn't pick out a spring wheat from a winter wheat from a tumbleweed in a line-up, but I am a professional consultant advising wheat farmers and end users for risk management and price protection. I have no natural gas pipeline or storage facility, I have no idea where my gas goes when I sell it or where it was when I bought it. I have never held a yen in my hand, have had a few euros on occasion for spending. It is all digital.

The difference between trading natural gas or soybeans or yen is a matter of making a secure digital transaction over an exchange. Having knowledge of the markets (and yes, if you are a GOOD technical analyst it is immensely helpful, however if you are a bad technician god help you) is important. Having a deep understanding of risk management and refined trading skills is vastly more important.

You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade, save for the much higher potential of high sigma price fluctuation. Which is a good thing. If you're a speculator.

Make no mistake, those of you who believe you have reinvented the wheel and are knocking the old hands in this game, we will watch you ride your emotional rollercoaster, and in the end we will quietly, cautiously, mop up the floor with what is left of you. Trade humble, or go broke. It is a law. Write it down.

later...

 [edit- Thanks all for the props above, always appreciated...)

You should read and learn about the history of Bitstamp, how it started, who runs it and what their track record is. I know you may be waiting for JP Morgan (;)) to start a bitcoin exchange, but until then, there are safe ways to trade.

So what is your response to this BittBurger?  "Stay away from Coinbase" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=344604.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=344604.0)

99.9% of bitcoin owners are trading with a few hundred to a few thousand dollars worth of bitcoins.  The total market cap of bitcoin is $12 billion dollars.

The total assets under management of all stock and bond funds and hedge funds are in the trillions.  The FOREX market trades $4 TRILLION dollars a day.  Hardly "obsolete."  

Your unwarranted arrogance is laughable.

2 points on this thread. There are real traders from real exchanges. And some of them make money doing it, no doubt. Most will not. Those who do not will not admit it the the sample responses is always skewed.

The more the price the goes up, the more governments worldwide will take action. Some negatively, some positively.  I tend to believe more negatively.  But I also think it wont matter and XBT will become semi mainstream.

Your post makes me wonder if you have a good understanding of what Bitcoin actually is. Under the hood, I mean.

Great post jballs, but I fear it will fall mostly on deaf ears.  You see most of the bitcoin true believers are 20 somethings who have never traded professionally or for an extended period of time for that matter.  They have never traded during a speculative bubble like the late 90's tech bubble or the 2008 oil bubble.  They think they have everything figured out and that older people have no idea what they are talking and nothing to add to the conversation.

They think bitcoin will take over the world in short order and render the dollar, euro, yen, gold, Fed, ECB, BOJ, investment banks, hedge funds, stock and bond markets completely obsolete and useless.  According to them bitcoin does not follow any of the old rules of trading.  Charts, technical analysis, risk management, profit taking, trading experience are completely worthless.  Bitcoin is a completely new animal.  In short, "this time its different."

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, once said, "There is nothing new in speculating.  There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.  Whatever happens in financial markets today has happened before and will happen again."

This is a good place to make the point. Bitstamp?

https://www.bitstamp.net/about_us/

Who the fuck are they, why do they list an office in the UK but operate out of Slovenia and have no names, faces, anything?

Why the fuck would I send those "people" money and how deserving would I be of getting swindled if I did? I get great offers from Nigeria all the time but there is a pattern see...

And like I say I have no reason to believe they are not legit. I am just not naive enough to find out.

As for JPMorgan, they are trying. Goldman is already in though

http://www.coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-director-board-bitcoin-startup-circle/

And in case you haven't noticed, Coinbase has a Goldman alum running the shop too. Forex dealer, kudos to him for leaving the vipers nest of GS forex dealing, but here is what you don't know. Give me an opaque exchange with no regulation and I will show you 500 ways to steal all day long with nobody noticing. Most of the banks run a bid/offer window you can run a truck through, they fill you at the bottom or top of the day and keep the spread and it's a sweet business if your clients don't even know it is a game, let alone how to know when they get played.

Your enterprise will probably be cannibalized by the Bilderberg whether you like it or not. I wish it were not so, but look at where the internet went...straight into the nutsack of the New Stasi. No reason to believe this will be any different, pleasantly surprise me if I'm wrong though.

You see what I mean?  This post illustrates my point exactly.  jballs just made a point that speculation is speculation regarless of the vehicle be it soybeans, crude oil, currencies, stocks or bitcoins.  

"You are all speculating on bitcoin. I don't care what your premise is, the cardinal rule of trading is the future is unpredictable. Thus you must understand the mental environment of a successful speculator to trade bitcoin, or anything else. Anything that fluctuates in value and has an available counterparty is a vehicle for speculation. In this way bitcoin is no different than any other commodity we trade

and then bassclef basically makes the point that bitcoins are different from all those things.

half the time bitcoin true believers claim it is a currency that will replace the dollar soon as a means of exchange.  then when someone compares it to currencies like the dollar that fluctuate in value and can be traded, they say "no!  its completely different!"

You couldn't be further from the truth.

And as to Livermore, I read his book. He was a smart kid that failed to overcome a gambling addiction and ultimately committed suicide.

edit: I see Bitcoin as a tool to fight financial corruption. I couldn't care less about speculators. I read about it, thought to myself, "Hey cool, a technology that could wrest power from those who issue currency so my kids don't have to grow up fighting politicians' wars funded by central banks. That's how it's different.

If you older traders are too obtuse to see how digital currencies are a game-changer, I'm not sure what to tell you.

True enough. I ponder if I was that arrogant when I was 20. Probably, but I did have mentors who I respected and learned from, only reason I haven't followed Livermore into the coat room. Also I have a 30ish trading partner who is on the cusp still so I'm familiar with the hubris. I still have to yank his leash 3-4 times a month to keep him out of the fire.

A fun statistical ratio would be the number of supremely confident 20-somethings vs. the number of extremely wealthy 40-somethings, 20 years later.

 :o

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.

Seriously though - do you think the powers that be will crush Bitcoin under their heel or embrace it?  It is interesting that although the internet is resistant to censorship and thus people can openly expose various conspiracies, not much can be done with the information as far as prosecution goes.  So there really is little for the power structure to fear.  In fact, they now have an exceptional tool for monitoring and attacking adversaries.  Will they recognize that Bitcoin can also play into their continued global dominance?  Unknown.

I couldn't be further from the truth about what?

Please enlighten me about what kind of gambling addiction?
  

If the political and financial elite can find a way to profit from and use bitcoin to increase their political control, then yes they will co-opt it. 

Livermore left behind a wife and two kids after blowing his brains out. Not exactly someone I'm prepared to take life lessons from.

It seems you and jballs don't really understand what Bitcoin and other digital currencies are, and are rushing to judgement. If you can explain how Bitcoin works under the hood without looking it up, or how digital currencies solve a 25 year-old computer science problem previously thought to be unsolvable, then you have my attention.

I made a video on the subject a couple weeks ago

http://youtu.be/BzcEiszx09g

You can skip the first bit as you already know bitcoin, but the rest deals with how fucked the financial system is.

In short, I can make a case that they will have way bigger problems before they ever get a noose around bitcoin. Power only wants power. So those in power will naturally exploit it or destroy it, or lose their power to it. And my best guess in our complex world is all three of those outcomes will occur.

The power structure is fluid, we have trouble seeing that because it is designed to not look fluid. I have been to a half dozen Federal Reserve buildings and they all use the same architecture. Concrete blocks like they were pulled off the great pyramid. FRBNY is almost comical the blocks are so oversized. It's a message of permanence and officiousness, but the hustlers that come and go have their own agendas, and strengths and weaknesses. The institutions are hollow edifices, stages for the puppetmasters.

My take is that the powers that be need guys like Ed Snowden. Thousands, tens of thousands of them, to run their system. The old guard got too old, that is really why the 2008 collapse happened. the grey hairs that built the post-Keynesian house of cards up and died or left the game. Their kids didn't really understand it in a big picture sense, so they just pushed the gas to the floor until it exploded.

Well those people aren't going to fix the mess, they don't know how. Evidenced by the current solution and how well it's working (QE, nonsense, cronyism).

What I hope is bitcoiners are the ones with the brains and the balls to take the reigns and fix the mess they (we) are all about to inherit in full force, and provide some alternatives to what is a crumbling archaic financial system on its very last legs.

That's probably a lousy answer to your question but it's the best I've got for now. I think BTC is here to stay for sure, black market or mainstream or global or zonal, my crystal ball is murky there but I am comfortable owning it, for sure.

I'm really sure at this point we are having two entirely different conversations.

Take your ritalin and read some of the thread and if you have anything pertinent to add I'll check back later.

PS- as for Livermore, not all men fear death.

No one ever talked about taking "life lessons" from Livermore.  He is valued for his lessons on trading/speculating.  The guy was worth $3 million after the crash of 1907 and $100 million after the crash of 1929.  $100 million in 1929 is prob billions in today's dollars.  And he started out when he was a teenager with around $5.  If you dismiss someone with a track record like that then you are not very bright.

Neither jballs nor I is talking about esoteric things like 25 yr old cs problems.  We are talking about bitcoin as a speculative instrument.  If you don't think it is a speculative instrument then I don't know what to tell you.

bitcoin will not overthrow regime, it will add new flavors to it or die trying.

hopefully making all of us rich on the way, this is our not traders mantra

Is this possible somewhere else? you tell me..

Actually yes, I didn't doubt until he posted that he smokes a cigar which is #1 result of the query "most expensive cigar", so not some obscure-but-expensive stuff, but the one he found by a quick googling. That triggered some doubts for me.

As for OP, of course they are here, trading is just like any other asset but with bad exchanges and huge volatility :) I guess when it becomes easier to trade, most of the volatility would be gone and bitcoin would be moving in smooth multi-week trends as any other asset.

Welcome, jballs. I hope you stick around.

You OP might have too much respect for the professionals. Have you talked to any of them? I have. They talk about shares just like any connoisseur talks about wine. Pure magic.

A venture capitalist sitting on the sidelines for bitcoin now, is pathetic. Venture means risky business you know, but bitcoin is too risky. Or they don't see the potential reward. They really only follow the stream. Edit: Waiting for Krugman to be bitcoin bull perhaps.

Face it, you are the one in knowledge, you are the venture capitalist. Fuck the magicians

This. 'emotional rollercoaster' is being very generous, and that's an understatement of the year.

More like no-life experience, no-real-power experience small fries getting too uppity for its own good.


bitcoin is not some silver bullet. those who think so are at best delusional and mistaken; more likely they just don' know what power, influence, and wealth actually mean since they have never even recognized its shadow much less tasted it in the first place.


Mop the floor with these fools. If they bitch more and makes prices swing, that's more profit for the silent and competent traders who couldn't give a two penny fuck about some anti-government bitchfest.

I would not classify Bitcoin as a derivative.  A derivative derives its value from something else -- wheat, soy, metal, oil, whatever.  Bitcoin does not.  Its value depends not on the value of some other commodity, but on the value of Bitcoin itself.  Which makes it something of a misfit among derivatives.  I agree with you that the derivative markets are probably best equipped to deal in it right now though, and the pattern of trades it shows so far is very similar to the patterns shown by derivative trading.

Insofar as I have bought stocks, I am no "big fish;" I own a portfolio of stocks about equal to the value of my home. I have traded on the basis of investment rather than speculation, as I do not typically hold any stocks I buy for less than five years, and I do insist on buying stocks that actually pay dividends.  So the 'currency speculation market' that dominates Bitcoin trading is a completely new experience for me.  I invested in Bitcoin because I believe it is the best solution so far proposed to International Internet commerce and has an advantage on its merits over traditional finance networks.  It moves money around the world quickly, efficiently, and cheaply. 

But it is not yet a mainstream way of doing that.  Furthermore, its scaling issues will not allow it to become a mainstream way of doing that.  A limit of seven transactions per second is laughable when compared to the number of tx per second a mainstream financial network has to process.  So that is the major technology risk as I see it;  I bought Bitcoin believing that the devs would work hard, and well before now, to fix the scalability problem.  So far, they have not.  The value of Bitcoin has not been driven by its use as a financial network, because it is still useless as a financial network.   Its value has been driven by currency speculators, and is now well above the mark at which I'd have bought (late in 2012) if I had known that at the beginning of 2014 the network would still not be able to handle at least a thousand tx per second. 

So, right now, the lack of development on the scalability front is making me worry a lot.  If that does not get fixed, and fairly soon, I believe the value of Bitcoin cannot be sustained at the current level.  It is attracting some mainstream speculator attention now, but when stock and bond traders are aware of it they will attempt to use it as a financial network and that is a whole different game.  If at that time they still cannot, they will discover that they cannot and the value sustained by speculation will be shown to be unjustified.  At that point, even if Bitcoin develops a scalability solution it won't help.  It will be dismissed in the minds of people who would like to use it as a financial network until long after its first mover advantage is lost. 

Twitter stock, 3D printing stocks are extremely easy to trade and there is plenty of volatility and massive returns there.  Same for index options and stock options.  And no super slow executions of buy or sell orders or delays getting your money into or out of exchanges like with btc.

Yet another unbelievably arrogant post from a btc true believer.  Dismissing anyone who does not believe as fervently as they do.  Which investment "professionals" have you spoken to?  A VC?  A hedge fund manager?  How do you have personal access to such people with their busy schedules pray tell?  Are you that important?  If so, then why are you bothering to post on a lowly btc internet forum?

Great video, I have the same opinion of you, I am a firm believer on Bitcoin and it's technology, but I am not naive to ignore that our psychology is the same wether we are trading oil or bitcoin. So the rules for traders DO apply for bitcoin and we will see the same dynamics of price discovery that we saw on past times with different commodities.

Bitcoin’s real contribution to the world is its source code. The blockchain, the network protocol, the cryptographic verification — anyone can take this and build a currency with any economic properties their community needs. I’m not convinced that bitcoin’s Austrian School properties can sustain a global (or even local) economy, but you know what? That’s okay. If I ever feel the bitcoin economy has become too unequal, unbalanced, or stagnant, it’s now trivial for me to start my own damn currency.

There is no perfect monetary system for every situation. Bitcoin is not going to be the one world currency, and it doesn’t need to be. A lot of people compare Bitcoin to the Internet, but it’s more like CompuServe. It’s the first of many digital, non-state currencies to come, that will all interoperate with each other in ways we can’t even dream of yet.

What the people who criticize those who use technical analysis and other "wall street" method to trade the volatility need to understand is that they are not hard science, they are a system to make decisions in an enviroment that is extremely uncertain.

It's not a magic formula for making money, but I bet you will survive longer than by just watching the bid/ask wall for making decisions.

agreed.  esp since he is long bitcoin.

There is no problem trusting bitstamp or btc-e as exchanges because as soon as you are long you can take out your bitcoin to your own wallet. Americans are restricted from wiring money to btc-e so try bitstamp.

If you are looking for Bitcoin 2.0 that has solved the 8 transactions per second problem look at NXT and emunie.

You have too much respect for them. Access? are they not all over the place? They are humans, like you.

Do I know more about money than dr Krugman? Yes. Does saying that make me arrogant? No.
Everyone can read my posts, also Krugmans posts over at nytimes.

You didn't answer my question.  You said you have talked to "professionals."  Who and when exactly?  Please enlighten us mere mortals with the details of your conversations with said "professionals."

You know more about money than Paul Krugman?  How so?  

Krugman graduated from Yale and has a PhD from MIT.  He is an economics professor at Princeton and has spent pretty much his entire adult life studying economics.  I'm not saying he is right about everything or is some sort of god.  But what are your credentials since you claim to "know more about money" than him.

I don't much care to. Go fuck yourself.

It is based on what he writes, I know his credentials.

If you remove your head from the ars of that real professional you favour and use as blinders, you might be able to find out something yourself. See, think, do. It must be the oldest investor advice there is.

"I don't much care to. Go fuck yourself."

Ah the surest sign of someone who is a total fraud and a liar.  Resorting to profanity and attacking others personally instead of engaging their arguments intellectually when confronted with his lies.  

And completely ignoring questions about statements that make him look like a total fool.  "I speak directly with investment professionals!  I know more about money than xyz person!  How dare you question me and my credentials even though I am just some anonymous internet forum poster!"  

You sir are a joke and the personification of the words unwarranted arrogance.  Good day.

Maybe, but I hate arse-suckers in a discussion forums. Escalate it a bit, and you will see what I mean: You call some name, I call some name, repeat until you end up with most well known figure. What kind of discussion is that?