Bitcoin Forum

OK, I want to keep this post academic, so if you are here to flame just click away please. If you don't feel there is a manipulator also just click away I heard enough about how there is none. This is to discuss the possible strategy of a manipulator if one exists.

I would like try and discuss the strategy of the manipulator, here are some questions maybe some of you can give insight on.

Why does he put up Build walls at every .05 cents? Why not just put up one huge build wall.

Why does he just not buy bitcoins to force the price higher, why does he use bidwalls right below the price, usually setup every .05 cents within a dollar lower than the price. To me it seems that he is just trying to stabalize the price, then trying to make a quick buck. Do you think that people base their purchase on bitcoins by looking at the bid side demand?

Why does he pull out sometimes, and cause the price to plummit, when it looked like he bought so many bitcoins with his walls to try and maintain the price.

Why does he use bidwalls? Would it not be better to just not put in any bid orders, and just continue to buy on the spot or have a bot buy on the spot?

Is his intention to make a quick buck, or is it to stabalize the price and help the long term price of bitcoins?

These are just some questions to help along the topic of his strategy. These are things I have noticed from watching the bid order side of mt gox. pretty much from around $20 dollars to now. If you have any other ideas or insights about the his strategy please post.

Remember, If you come here to flame and start with the "There is no manipulator your a #%#*%#*," just click away please.

manipulator = bitcoinica hedging positions ?

Profit by leverage.  If you have enough leverage a $.50 swing can make you quite a bit...especially if you can do it over and over.  A $.50 swing when the price is $5 is 10%, if the price was higher you would need higher swings (or significantly more money invested) to create the same profit.  It benefits those with leverage to have the price at a certain "mid-ground" in order to keep the investment total and possible profit just where they need it. 

How much does the manipulator spends? I mean, while the forum was down during the Cosbygate incident, i saw a guy on the IRC channel that said he had already spent over 5 thousand USD to try to keep the price from going bad while the forum was down (i'm not clear on what he considered bad though); is the manipulator spending much more than that?

We're calling it Cosbygate now?  :D

I assume it is a riff of watergate

The only evidence I've seen of a manipulator is when all the buywalls suddenly vanish with no one selling into them.  When it dropped from $6 to $4 or so last month, someone just removed all the ones at once, probably the same person.  Then last Wednesday night, someone removed every single buy order from $5.01 to $5.45.  They just went.  Nobody was selling.  Someone just cancelled them.  So it seems that there's one or two people with lots of money that have most of the buy and sell orders.

You know, come to think of it, this guy who has all the large buy and sell orders might in fact be the one who dumped 20,000 coins last night.  He just sold them to himself and with his activity, MtGox fees are only 0.0025 for him.  If he has done that, then I suspect he's done it lots of times before.

One odd thing I've noticed is a large buy or sell order appears and it's right near the edge of where buying or selling is.  It lasts 5 seconds, moves the price a penny in one direction, then dissapears.  Then it comes back a minute later raised of lowered slightly and only lasts 5 seconds before dissapearing, repeat ad naseum.  I don't know why he does this.




No, just a good Samaritan with lots of money.  Maybe Bruce?  But the Manipulator's buy and sell walls consist of maybe 500,000 USD, not merely 5,000.

Here is the way I see it!
He puts a large wall up on the sell side, causing people who want to get an order executed to trickle over the top and down in front. He then pulls his order causing a very thin market near the going rate, and he sweeps them up as to not move the price up higher than needed. And, repeat!

On the buy side, it's to show false support (ex. demand), therefore, causing the other buyers to raise their bids, so he can sell higher, and again, not to lower the price more than is necessary!

Then you'll, on occasion, see a rather large wall on both sides! I believe this is when he is taking a break (sleep) so he knows the price will still be where he left it when he picks back up where he left off!

It's mind games really! This is someone with experience in stock trading, manipulation, and psychological reaction, and wanted an easy profit!

I believe he can force the price to where he wants, when he wants! When you have 25K+ BTC, and $100,000 at the same time, well, you have that kind of power!

I saw yesterday evening though, the bid wall for about 5000BTC, someone dumped 3300BTC into it, and I haven't seen it since! I don't think he was going for that outcome!

This is just what I have observed over the past few weeks! I have made a lot of money following these "games"! I wish I had FRAPS to record as things unfold, however, I never knew until it was about to happen, and I don't have unlimited HDD space!


No you don't! A $.50 rise x 1000BTC is $500 whether it's $1/BTC or $100/BTC! The volume is where you make money!

I would like to know how to predict his behavior so I know beforehand if he will raise or lower it.  How can I do that?

I just remembered one thing he did last month.  He made this enormous buywall $1 higher than the regular price and he had it for 100,000 coins.  People first were selling into it, and then bots and speculators put a bunch of buy orders in front of it so they were buying it up.  It was rallying big and he wasn't buying anything up anymore.  And then suddenly he removed his buywall and the price crashed down $1 lower and started crashing.  About 45 minutes later, he puts the same buy order back and then he kept it back for an hour.  I think he did that a couple other times around then where he leaves it up for a minute and then drops it totally, making the price swing over $1 each time.

 :o

I wish mtgox made recordings. ;D

Correct...but the initial investment is more (1000BTC @$5 makes only a $5k risk, whereas 1000BTC @ $20 is a $20k risk).  Also, percentage wise you would need to not only invest more but also make a greater swing to make the same percentage of initial investment.  It's easier to manipulate a $.50 swing @ $5 than it is to make a $2 swing @ $20.  In my opinion it's not about the profit made but the profit vs. initial investment.

Obviously, I am not a market genius...just using my logic and seeing what I would do if I had the ability/money to "game" the market.

Maybe the manipulator is mtgox themselves!
They have copious dormant amounts of both bitcoin AND usd in their accounts.
And access to all the trade data in detail, which they only release the previous 24 hours of to the public, and in limited form.

dun dun dunnnnnn..

Bitcoin's price can move rather rapidly.  You're assuming one set (one bid wall) is the right trading approach and the right price.  Maybe various people have different opinions about where the price is going.  Some may put bids in at $5.45, some at $5.40, others may prefer $5.30.  Prices are not set by one person (the alleged manipulator).


It's about price volatility again.  Someone fires 20k bitcoins into the bids and fulfills many of the orders.  I regularly put staggered bids and asks onto MtGox for this very reason.  You would see my bids as manipulation.  I see it as smart hedging against risk and taking advantage of market volatility when it occurs.  If the price starts falling because people are selling like mad then I withdraw my bids in anticipation of a lower price.  That's not manipulating the market.  That's just not being stupid.


Markets don't really work like that.  Have a look at share trading and you'll always see a lot of 'depth': bids and asks way above and below the current spot price.  If everyone is only buying at the spot price than the spot price isn't going to move.  People can't see how much interest there is in the market.  Someone wanting to sell 20k of bitcoins would see only a few dozen being traded at the current spot price.  Could they sell those 20k in one hit without market depth?  They couldn't.

I get the feeling that this mysterious 'manipulator' (always singular, always one person) is being blamed for odd market trading, and even blamed for bitcoin's continuous flagging price.  It all sounds a little like a conspiracy theory with very little evidence.

Evidence against: MtGox already makes $10K-$1000K a day from its fees.
Evidence for: MtGox won't let you withdraw more than 100BC a day and more than $1000 a day (max $10,000 a month) so The Manipulator will have trouble cashing his investment in using only a small number of accounts, so a non-MtGox manipulator would use lots of accounts and not have all his money and coins t in one account and the buy and sell walls that are huge that show someone is manipulating them I've seen them appear and dissapear at the exact same time, never incrementally.

I've often wondered this same thing! If you have enough in each account, you wouldn't have to worry about "today's trades"! There could be an account for "wall trickery" as storage, and a primary for the execution!

As for a conspiracy? I'm a paranoid person! Everyone is out to get me! So, I calls it like I sees it! And, some of the movement I've seen (not price swings) in the walls inching across the chart, someone is obviously doing this intentionally!

Can there ever be unintentional market movements?

Well, you get the point...err nvm, stricken from the record! XD

https://i.imgur.com/WRiba.png

I'll bet you haven't seen a lot of charts like that.  :)  Resolution is 1hr/px X, $0.01/px Y.  Stare at it long enough and you'll start seeing when the major players move in and out of the market.  

Edit:  Also, the funny pixelation you see around the trade line isn't JPEGing.  This is a PNG, pixel-perfect.  That's all real data.

Just curious (and too lazy to do the pixel math) how far does this go back...it's interesting and very informative.  I am glad to see someone is on their toes about the data tracking...btccharts is about as far as I go, which is also why I don't trade much.

8/1 on the left, today on the right.  $4 at the bottom, $14 at the top.

Nice, thanks.  BTW, your chart is a very pleasant change from what normally pops up around here, just needs to be going up instead of down.

Here's another one:

https://i.imgur.com/12ZPA.png

9/15, the day of the last 25k dump.  24 hours @ 1 minute resolution.  $3-$7.

These charts aren't very useful for trading except on very short time scales, but you can learn a lot of important things about limit orders, bots, market psychology, and as a bit of a surprise to me, just how much trading seems to be done by hand.  HFT in this world happens on a scale of minutes, not milliseconds.


Perhaps I'll post some of that tomorrow. :)

How are you making those graphs?

The manipulator, or manipulators really don't want the price to go over 7... 16000BTC wall... wtf

Those limits are there due to US federal KYC regulations.  If you follow MtGox's KYC policy and send them ID and proof of address, you can have those limits lifted.

It's my own software.  I wrote it while designing a bot.

All right, last one unless there are any requests:

https://i.imgur.com/dgcUH.png

A nice view of the latest rally.  9/17 through now, 5 minute resolution, $4 to $8.

Do you see the manipulator?

I am not sure, but I suspect these.



http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/4584/bitcoinmanipulator92011.png

The wall is joke for those at the Sibo...Its pocket money.

Note that those are at 6.50, 6.75, 7.00, plus a little bit of a ramp in front of each.  Those are psychological numbers (especially 7, where the big jump is), and the ramps are scalpers doing their thing.

Here's where they are on my chart:

https://i.imgur.com/m3WbD.png

Most of the time the walls are sitting on psychological numbers (noobs), or on the trade line +/- (commission + profit, often in .05 steps like was mentioned before) (arbitrage traders and market makers).  The market makers bounce back and forth a bit as their inventory moves; arbitrageurs just fill back in every time they're bought through, initially moving in inventory from their outside limits, and then from other exchanges after 6 confirms.

All that's normal market behavior.  If you're looking for manipulation, you need to spot where there's some unusually large walls that mysteriously appear and disappear outside of those conditions.

Cool charts, how do you sample the data? Do you just take a snapshot of the depth once every while, or do you subscribe to some kind of streaming updates?

(I ask this because I have market depth snapshots going back quite a long time, but your resolution seems to be to good to use this approach unless you flood the exchange :-)

Great charts.
Keep up the fantadtic work

I flood the exchanges.  :)  Snapshotting through the JSON API once a minute won't make a mark on Gox's servers.  I'll bet there are a hundred bots that pull once a second.  The data is trivial to compute, and they can cache it for a second at a time if it ever becomes a burden.

I did write support for the WebSockets streaming API, but at the time it was too flaky...  Lots of random disconnects and outages.  It might be better now, but I dropped it since the markets aren't moving fast enough for it to matter.

I suggest we just ignore the manipulator, and go for a rally.

http://investorrules.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/stock-market-rally.jpg



YEEEHAAAAAA!!

Step 1: Stop believing in a manipulator.

Step 2: Stop looking at buy/sell walls. They are irrelevant. With the aid of bots/diligent traders, they rise and fall instantaneously and mean truly nothing. The only reason I watch Mt. Gox Live is to see in real time when my orders are filled.

Step 3: ???

Step 4: Profit

(It had to be said.)

I've just put a few Bids in at $7 just for the hell of it, so I can be The Manipulator too.  It's fun.  Others should join in  :D


Very true.  People look at the 'walls' as if they're meant to be solid.  If 20k of bitcoins are headed towards my price point you can be damn sure I'll raise or lower my bids to buy at the estimated optimal price.  There is no rule in the markets that once a bid or ask has been placed that it must be left there until executed.

What makes you think all those "manipulative" things were caused by the same person?

When I see a drop causing panic, I sometimes also lower my bids, expecting the panic horde to sell regardless of price, or even with positive feedback for a bit.

As long as you have people falling heavily into such traps, there will be those happy to pick up the money. A move might also not be planned as manipulation at first, but just turn into it, with the one starting it thinking "oh well, if they want the game this way, it's fine too".

I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.

The large bubble itself was a good example of that. A single person could not make that happen, but the people who bought below 5 USD/BTC and sold above 20 certainly liked riding it.

Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.

MTGox employees using insider trading, taking advantage of their btc holdings as leverage to manipulate the price to line their pockets. 

Yes, that is a possibility for sure. Do these super walls appear on any other exchanges? I only use MtGox.

I dunno, that's a good question.  It sure is peculiar.  I'm glad I got in while the getting is good though!  The way it rebounded I think we'll see it reverse it's trend, or at least stabilize soon.  There are just way too many people waiting for them to get cheap, like me!

Yes, one person/bot, but with malicious intent to manipulate the market?? or simply to profit? If you had funds to place 17k BTC orders, why would you only order 1000?

This is a stupid bot with deep pockets who chooses moments to go all-in based on an algorithm.

THERE. IS. NO. MANIPULATOR.

It's hilarious how idiotic some of the people here are.

I will enjoy taking your money.

You won't be taking mine,  I've been making plenty of money. Someone that can stop the market dead, killing a rally, whether they are using a bot or not, is still manipulating things and screwing with thousands of other people. It doesn't need to me malicious to be manipulation.

I used to think the same thing.  Really.

But a bot-owner with deep pockets doesn't keep a 'stupid bot' around. These moves have been much less mechanical and much more organic.

I don't know exactly what's going on, but I'd be willing to bet it's not just a gang of ill-advised bots.

The "there is no singular manipulator" case has been well stated. It does not need to be repeated ad infinitum as per the OP's request. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the price was wildly manipulated for profit and/or intensional discrediting, but I don't think the 'walls' will enlighten us. I often wonder about the stolen coins, whether Mt. Gox is solvent, or whether any central banks or credit agencies have taken active watch.

Revalin, I found your charts fascinating and others agree. Perhaps you could start a new thread or post them to ftp. Even if delayed to preserve your advantage, they could start a great discussion and suggested improvements.

The massive 10000btc wall at 5 is gone now. The Manipulator seems to want it to drop into the $4-5 range.

He's just following the market, it's likely to dip below 5 at some point so why not soak up some more bitcoins for the money?

For sure, I'll be doing the same.

The Manipulator is forcing the price down.  People keep trying to rally and whenever it starts rallying big, he dumps coins onto it to make the rallying stop.

If someone can make money doing that, then why not. The price will slowly move up if there is true demand for it to go up, regardless of the back-and-forth created by manipulators. I wouldn't worry about it, either ignore the short term or use it to your advantage and trade accordingly.

Pick up a dictionary:

ma·nip·u·late   /məˈnɪpyəˌleɪt/  Show Spelled[muh-nip-yuh-leyt]  Show IPA
verb (used with object), -lat·ed, -lat·ing.
1. to manage or influence skillfully, especially in an unfair manner.

(bolded for emphasis)

What about Bitcoinia.

If they can controll the market and know for sure how it will go.
They can earn quite much by betting on it.

And I'm saying it doesnt matter if they are purposefully 'being malicious' or just 'trying to make money' it is still manipulation. How about you read the dictionary yourself, there is nothing 'fair' about a 17000btc wall and selling 10000btc at once to drop the price. You posting the dictionary just proved my point.

What a joke!

If you truly believed there was no ulterior motive, you'd be calling him "The Conductor" or something without obvious negative connotation.

Instead, you idiots think there is intent to stop natural market motion for 'his' own greedy motives.

This guy is just playing the market, trying to make a buck, like the rest of us.

Jixtreme, please read the OP and GTFO?  Your opinion has been well covered in other threads, and we'd like to get back to our discussion.

I personally don't believe in The Manipulator as presented (using bid/ask walls to corral the market), since all I've seen there is evidence of a market being a market.  However, I'd like to dig into why some people do.  That's why I'm bringing out my charts: people are making lots of guesses at things they're seeing in the market depth, but I think it's mostly just from an incomplete picture.  I'm interested if people still see it when they're looking at the whole progression over time.

I do have an interesting manipulation theory of my own, but I want to finish hearing this one out first.

It really is all a conspiracy against us. Government manipulates BTC price and makes it crash to levels like 1 dollar etc. -> mining becomes unprofitable -> miners quit -> government takes over network without 13 million needed worth of ATI cards etc. Simples !

The government is making cuts so they need to be clever with the $$$  ;D

Mining wouldn't cost that much electricity if we went back to CPU mining.  Solidcoin v2 changed the hash scheme to promote CPU mining.  Perhaps bitcoin should do likewise?

Bitcoin is the GOD !!! How dare you propose Scamcoin is better !?!?  ???

Of course he is playing the market for personal gain, that is kind of 'no shit' obvious. I don't speak for everyone but I've never said anything about conspiracy or 'ulterior motives' so attempting to paint me in that light isn't going to stick. If a person uses massive amounts of money to twist and turn an ENTIRE MARKET made up of thousands of people in order to make themselves more money, they are manipulating it UNFAIRLY, just as your posted definition of manipulation states. What are you going to reply next, a flip flop retraction of your 'read the dictionary' post? Perhaps you can just call us all idiots some more and impress us with your debating skills.

The term 'market manipulation' exists for a reason. It wasn't invented with BitCoin, or the speculation forum, and small markets such as BTC have the most potential to be manipulated. Every post you make weakens your own arguments. No shit the person probably just wants to make more money.  Stick to your trolling/mocking (though entertaining) prayer posts, you're better at those.

Actually I think the goal here is to predict his moves to profit off them.

> they are manipulating it UNFAIRLY

do they play above rules that the rest of people go by on the market?

larger wallet has larger pull, or is it unfair?

That is what I've been trying to do, might as well if we are stuck with it... whatever it/she/he/them "The Conductor"  ::) is.

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/7545/unledkh.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/unledkh.png/)

 :P Maybe it is Obongo and he's just trying to make a few $$$. Who knows ?

It's clear that there are some active traders with programs trying to profit from small swings. But averaged out over a month, they have little effect.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=740&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=1&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30
Bitcoin, down $4 a month every month since June.

On the scale of days, there are lots of little "rallies" and "crashes". But few exceed 3 days, and at the end of each cycle, the price is down. Each time there's a "rally", after about two days the market depth on the buy side dries up.  We're watching a thinly traded market being played by short term traders, probably with the same money going round and round.

in your outlook what is going to be a new low in this round? and in what timeframe?

So, WTF was that?

Did anyone else see the $.40 of sells just drop out?

Yes, it was... odd.

They were bought, I think.

That one wasn't! The whole side is "The Manipulator"! lol

uh! the whole market is THE MANIPULATOR! WTF!

EPIC market manipulation. The government is onto us people. Run for ya lives  :o

Fuck

I lost lots of money :(

I bought leveraged, and then that huge sale that threw it to below 5 happened :( And I got a automatic liquidation

Wait wait wait....


then...


Clearly, in quote number two, you admit that you believe that 'he' is putting up massive amounts of money to "twist and turn and entire market." How is that NOT belief in an ulterior motive?? ?? ??

When I place a buy order, I'm simply trying to buy some coins. When 'he' places a buy order, he's doing it to twist the market... Unfairly!

ULTERIOR. MOTIVE.

Like I said, pick up a dictionary.

I'd rather spend my time gleefully trolling, as it's something that, as you can tell, I deeply, deeply enjoy. Unfortunately, the idiocy surrounding the belief in "THE MANIPULATOR" has shocked me straight.

@Revalin: I read the OP, and the thread title, and I ignored it because I was foolish enough to believe I could talk sense into people on the internet. Truly, I am the naive one.

Hey Nagle, I love a good gloom'n'doom story as much as anyone, but you're not even trying anymore. With 50% monthly declines, bitcoin has been hyper-depreciating 8 June to 8 September! And the past 30 days have been no exception.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-6-9&e=2011-9-10&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Hourly&c=1&r=1&l=1&t=W&vc=1&v=0&b=0&noheader=1&height=200&width=360http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?s=2011-8-22&e=2011-9-22&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Hourly&c=1&r=1&l=1&t=W&vc=1&v=0&b=0&noheader=1&height=200&width=360

I've been thinking, without him, the market would stagnate.  What is useful is to be able to predict his next move.

That is pretty easy to do etc. First he pushes the price up ( pumps ) then when he gets it to what he wants etc. he dumps a boatload of coins like happened with 20k last week etc.

If you stare at that second chart a little you can see that a previous resistance trendline is now a support.  Granted, the trendline is going downwards but still...

My way:  Listen to what they have to say with an open mind.  Give them some honest consideration.  Show them the facts the way I see them.  Give them a chance to show how their theory works.  We all get a chance to consider the merit of our ideas, and perhaps some opinions change.

Your way:  Tell them they're wrong.  State your opinion in all caps, but don't bother actually backing up your opinions with facts or data.  Become increasingly condescending in your tone, culminating in calling them idiots.  Finally act surprised that no one listens to you.

Major askwalls at 5.8, 6.0 are gone... manipulator is away for the moment.

A daily gain against a monthly drop bouncing along a year long upward support.

http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/20110921-13-5month1.png (http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/20110921-13-5month1.png)


I nominate this guy for Grand Internet Poobah.

I guess I just haven't hugged enough rainbows.

Harsh people exist. On this topic, I am one of them. I don't have to prove to others the LACK of existence of this mysterious, omnipresent, "The Manipulator." You have to prove his existence to me! And every time someone here tries and fails to conclusively do that, I am going to tell them why they're an idiot.

Correct. You do not.


Incorrect. Reread the first post for further explanation.

Prove to me you exist.

Okay Descartes :P

This isn't trying to prove the existence of God. This is proving the existence of a specific person with deep pockets, who is throwing large orders at the Bitcoin market with the intent of evoking a specific buy/sell response from other players. Seeing as how quickly and thoroughly Bruce Wagner was exposed, I don't think I'm asking too much.

Revalin:

I'm intrigued by your charts, but I'm having a hard time parsing them.  Can you break it down a little bit more?

The point of the thread is not to decide whether the manipulator exists or not; it is about, the behavior of the manipulator, regardless of whether he is hypothetical or real.

Okay Descartes :P

This isn't trying to prove the existence of God. This is proving the existence of a specific person with deep pockets, who is throwing large orders at the Bitcoin market with the intent of evoking a specific buy/sell response from other players. Seeing as how quickly and thoroughly Bruce Wagner was exposed, I don't think I'm asking too much.
[/quote]



The existence of a rich person or people working together isn't even up for debate. Someone with HUGE pockets has massive walls up. Those walls are put up and and taken down instantly all the time, generally at key times when action is happening. If you haven't seen those, you shouldn't be commenting. The fact these massive walls appear and disappear instantly, along with how they are used, is plenty of proof that a very rich 'person' exists. You just seem to have a huge problem with them being called "The Manipulator" even though it fits with your provided definition. There was a massive 10000btc sell that crashed everything at 6.90 which may or may not have been the same person.  "His" exact goal can only be speculated, but that goal is really the only aspect that remains up for debate, not the "persons" existence. You can see the walls just like everyone else.

The 'twists and turns' caused to the market by "his" behavior aren't 'ulterior motives' or a hidden agenda, they are relatively CLEAR motives, almost blatant for the world to see. They would be ulterior if he made a public statement about his goals, and then did the opposite. Of course it isn't an ulterior motive, WE KNOW HE WANTS TO MAKE MONEY. Kind of clear, just like you said. So unless he honestly thinks that 17000btc wall will sell, he has a reason for keeping the price from getting any higher. He doesn't want it to go over 7, at least not yet, most likely because it will make him money 'playing the market' as you said. These walls have stopped rallies, massive 10000 coin sell offs have caused panic crashes. Perhaps you are suggesting that this "person" is ALSO an idiot (like everyone here according to you), because how can they expect to sell 17000btc in a massive rally stopping wall instead of spreading it out? But wait! Every single time the price gets close to his walls he removes them! So clearly he doesn't actually want to sell that that price. Thus we come back to manipulation and "their" strategy.

Purposefully playing with a small market with tons of money or doing so accidentally through ignorance achieves the same result. Calling it 'the manipulator' 'it' 'he' 'she' 'the conductor', it is all the same. The market is affected.  So what is your theory? All you've done is talk shit. Why is the 17000btc sitting there at $7? Why was the 12000btc sitting at $5 until yesterday when the price got close? Why has this been happening for almost two months? Why does "THE CONDUCTOR" make these walls? Please regale us with your 'non idiot' wisdom.

His wall always get torn down when we get close to them...

Thus the question: Why we do not mount a ORGANIZED rally, so that he is forced to remove his wall or let us buy it? (and thus cause a real rally).



It is obvious that part of his strategy is maintain the price where he wants, and do so by using fake walls... If we push HARD against those walls, we will break his strategy, and then we "win"



What we need to to is simple, gather lots of fiat, and then at a organized time, buy all BTC that we can... the spike will:

a) Scare the wall away.

or

b) Buy the wall away.



Of course, this has a potential flaw: People that know of the plan that do not believe in a real rally, might want to use us all buying BTC to create the spike, as a sure-fire way to dump all their BTC without causing a crash...

Well, we do not know that. Not with certainty that justifies all caps.


A rally is an organized motion, in so far as a herd is organized.

Yes, I mean MORE organized than that.

Why did he put a 3000ish coin buywall at 5.50, bumping the price way up today?

I wonder what's going to happen.  So far only one or two people took the bait and it has not climbed.

he's fine. he thought now, bitcoins are worth for him 5.5. no more no less. he bought 2000 btc at once, the rest remains in the orderbook. he's still there if you think you want to sell to him you can do.
5.5 is exactly the middle price today between 5.30 and 5.80 (optical at bitcoincharts.com). so what is the problem.
he wants to buy at this price. Why drop into the selling line and pay more? would you do? me not. this is no manipulator. if you have 25.000 US$ how would you buy bitcoins for it? drop into selling? ok. thats yours. not his style.

that wall is obviously not just to buy coins as it could easily be at .20 or .30 lower and still absorb all sells.

No one is selling either.  The market has been stagnating since last evening.  Perhaps The Manipulator is making it stagnate?

i've seen it live, the price was at 5.28. he drop them all until 5.5 that has been 2000 btc. finish. the rest has to sell to him. you can do. he's still there.

but that is not his false. if you want to sell at 5.5 you can do. why discuss? he want to buy at 5.5. finish.

this is no manipulator.

I like how when The Manipulator puts up askwalls people rightly point out his manipulation... but when he puts up a bidwall some people say, "Yeah, he just wants to buy."
uh-huh.

troll.

sell to him if you want. everyone can do.

it is more likely that the reason for the 3000 buy at 5.5 is to push up to the queue of sells at the region of 5.65 to 5.7.

Exactly.  A market artificially held up by bidwalls which aren't intended for execution is just as unhealthy as a market held down by askwalls.

boom ;D

someone sold 09:20:58 PM > Trade: 2916.6155822 @ 5.50000 to him. so he got what he wants / both are happy. finish.

They're "market depth over time" charts.  Red for bids, green for asks.  X is time, linear.  Y is price, linear.  The brightness is the number of coins bid/asked at a given price on a log scale.  The black band in the middle is the spread.

Some common patterns:

Bright lines that don't care if they're in red or green: round (psychological) numbers.

Bright lines in a dim area:  Bid/ask walls.  The brighter, the bigger the wall, and the more likely it is to limit the spread-cut of a large market order.

The spread cuts out vertically terminating a bunch of lines, then gradually fills back in: Someone executed a market order (IE, bought or sold into the market depth), and buyers and sellers move in to fill the spread.  Where they decide to meet in the middle determines the new price.

A bunch of lines all suddenly terminate without being cut by a market order: a moderate to large player had a stagger, then pulled out.

Bright random dots inside of a mostly-dark peak: panic selling/buying.

Bright evenly-spaced dots in a mostly-dark peak: Stupid bot losing money.

Static outside and after a peak: the market jockeying for position after some high volume trading.

Lots of people don't put up walls and use bots that sneak in buy and sells when the price reaches somewhere.

If you're in this to make money that's a poor strategy.  You'll miss out on large market orders that would have given you a favorable price.

People trading for profit do just the opposite: limit orders spread out to either side of the current trade, then gradually withdrawing them as the price moves; the idea is to only take large market orders rather than standing in the way of price movements.

Thanks so much.  That cleared things up.

I never disputed that there was someone with deep pockets trading on MtGox. I've seen the bid-walls. The fact that they appear and disappear instantly to me implies that it is a bot doing the ordering.


No, YOU said 'his' actions fit the title of "manipulator."

I say that 'his' actions are the result of an algorithm that determines that $5.00 is a great place to buy, so 'he' goes all in, or mostly in, depending on the calculated risk involved. As the wall is bought or sold into, 'he' gets new data saying, "hmm, maybe I could actually be buying for a lower price." Wall disappears, moves somewhere else.

All this bot is trying to do is TRADE.


As someone else said, throwing up walls of that size with the intent to squelch volatility is the opposite of what an experienced trader wants and even LESS of what a bot, who can make thousands of transactions more than humans can, wants. "The Manipulator" is simply an algorithm that occasionally does stupid things based on data it receives.

So why is a 17000 BTC wall at $7? Because, if for whatever reason, someone were to buy extremely quickly up to $7, even a bot knows that it probably won't stay that high for long. It wants to get rid of as many coins at $7 as possible. $8 would be way too far out there to ever get a hit. $6 is a more reasonable sell point. It likely has a few coins sitting out there at $6, just to blend risk.

Anyway, if you're using mtgoxlive to guide to your trading, you're doing it wrong. It only represents what might happen a few seconds into the future - a few minutes at most. That's why it's good for bots, but not good for humans. It's certainly fascinating to watch and I use it to see when my orders have been filled instead of bashing F5 on the exchange... Other than that, I get waaaaaaaay more out of looking at bitcoincharts with an array of moving average views...

Like this a lot, and your charts. Nice, dude.

Still, I have a lot of skepticism for one person toying with the market for profit. I can think of a massive number of people with lots of bitcoin wanting to sell that aren't intentionally trying to mess with the price. I think Revalin's comment makes this even more plausible.

So what do you think The Manipulator is going to do now with the crash to $2?  Will he buy?  Will he wait?

if i was the Manipulator i would buy a lot of small amounts over a long time. as to not effect price much, keep doing this until a rally is clearly happening and then back up this rally. everytime the rally appears to be over Buy it up 0.50 cause even more panic buying.