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pool.ckpool.org:3333

16yLHLoeyuCLPMXkVpC3gyrRYvwRGwjKJr

x


https://www.nicehash.com/miner/16yLHLoeyuCLPMXkVpC3gyrRYvwRGwjKJr


stratum+tcp://sha256.usa.nicehash.com:3334

https://coingeek.com/bitmain-losing-chip-supplier-debts-mounting/

I have heard other rumors.  I do not Have much info.


from the link above.  Damn could it be true!

By By Bitmain
By By Bitmain
We hate to see you go!

From this song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t3cBTb3xPc

Interesting read. Hard to tell how much truth there is to it. I know there have been the rumors of a failed chip design, I think you mentioned something about a second even.

Phil weren't you able to check a couple wallet balances you were pretty sure were bitmain wallets? Be interesting to see what theh have in BTC reserves.

I got a nice chuckle unrelated to the article - the note at the end clarifying BCH as the true vision of bitcoin.

Well, we'll have to pull our S11 pre orders. . . oh wait.. . 

That maybe would explain why they were out of stock for Z9s for a while, in spite of them being the most profitable miners they were selling.

While it’s back in stock for the big Z9, the Z9 mini has vanished from product pages.

Edit: Fake news maybe? - https://twitter.com/nishantsharma87/status/1059324737837584389

I used to be able track  old large wallets  but  last year during the runup  they got into BCH  and mixers and shit.

So I don't think I can do it any more..

here is a 2016 order for a s-9 batch 1-4

Bitcoin Address   1BgpVxmQUreu4n7BeWZgYagsPVzQ9WsNgH
Pay   3.513 BTC
Pay Confirm   3.513 BTC
Date   2016-06-09 14:18:27

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1BgpVxmQUreu4n7BeWZgYagsPVzQ9WsNgH

sent here

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

this has 3,372 coins or  22 million

Order Details

Product Name   Price
ANTMINER S9 First Batch - Shipping starts from 12 June × 1   2100 USD ( 3.96 BTC )
Coupon
Shipping
UPS   0.119 BTC
Order Total:   4.079 BTC
Pay Details

Bitcoin Address   18WW19rfs6ydBwVqxgiw2PEcdvLDQ5mCu6
Pay   4.079 BTC
Pay Confirm   4.079 BTC
Date   2016-06-01 06:00:49

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/18WW19rfs6ydBwVqxgiw2PEcdvLDQ5mCu6

went here

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V  same 3372 coins

Order Details

Product Name   Price
ANTMINER S7 BATCH 11 - Shipped out from March 1st~5th × 3   2136 USD ( 5.1 BTC )
Coupon
Shipping
UPS   0.29 BTC
Order Total:   5.39 BTC
Pay Details

Bitcoin Address   15J421C66F5g9gbvXxqRuPuodQRZYZc1Qw
Pay   5.39 BTC
Pay Confirm   5.39 BTC
Date   2016-03-03 19:03:55

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/15J421C66F5g9gbvXxqRuPuodQRZYZc1Qw went to same place

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

here is a bch payment

14MAP6cCq6BXKBpZA1Kh9LVrMerwhGmPAo

https://explorer.bitcoin.com/bch/address/14MAP6cCq6BXKBpZA1Kh9LVrMerwhGmPAo

went here
https://explorer.bitcoin.com/bch/address/1MP5NPPPfiycwspBqDqeJz7s2E1K2kRYNh

and under 18,000 usd in the account.

so those numbers look like shit maybe they are a

"House of Cards"   maybe not.

Jihan Wu is getting what he deserved. He owe a lot to crypto community. Years of extortion prices and abuse. Bitcoin Cash deal and working against community. Maybe justice is getting to him finally!

Well they announced on twitter two new models this week.

https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/1059636075243524098

S15 and T15 ... all the S10-11-12-13-14 went to trash ?

but is it a long preorder?

Hate to send in coin  and wait for 2 or 3 months to get one.

Inspecting their page I couldn't find anything, then I'm not that good at it. I imagine it will be a pre order of some sort, just hope it isn't that long. S15 and T15 so two models next in series I imagine.

Only thing I disagree with is "Years of extortion prices and abuse". It's called Free Market and BM just charged what the market would bear. No one held a gun to peoples heads to make them buy their miners so there is nothing wrong with that at all. If you have a problem with BM then don't buy their miners. I stopped buying Ants and moved to Avalons when BM tried to force BitCH on us and have never looked back.

If BM and other miner makers charged rock-bottom prices from day-1 and in turn sold even more miners can you imagine where diff would be today?

Quoted for truth. Bitmain has always priced their miners based off ROI, as has Canaan and others.

Like when they price-warred Spondoolies into bankruptcy and then upped the price of their S5 by 40% the next day "just because".
What about the time they changed the S7 design from a 0.26J/GH miner to a 0.30J/GH miner with lower overall cost and reliability but the same price tag and didn't change the advertising numbers? And also built it with inherent undervolting for efficiency but didn't put that option in any public-release firmware (though very likely did in-house)?

Definitely not abusing the community.

It's been fairly widely reported that Bitmain had "risk chip failures" on at least one 7/10nm design - but no details on if it was the design that failed or the process.

---

Even model numbers were traditionally "server size" designs - and haven't been done for a long while.

I suspect the S13 was the intended model that they had failures on their "risk dies" order(s).

Thanks for doing the address thing again Phil. Definitely not as bright and shiny as last year but who knows how many wallets they have. I could see all this BCH drama and work to prop it up as having cost them quite a bit.

It's funny that on one side there are the stories of impending bankruptcy, and on the other there is the launch of the new product line.

Almost smells like a big old PR stunt. Agent they preparing for an IPO or something right now. So even if half the news is speculation about money problems as long as they can show they are not broke it's not harmful.


Just wondering if it's the design that's on Bitmain, if it's in the process does that fall under the foundry to eat the cost?

I would think contracts vary.

Bitmain has had a lot of chips burned to wafers by that foundry. So I would think they could ask for more than some other companies.

these were bitmain hodlings a couple months ago, BCH is almost at the same rate from the date of their leaked IPO documents March 31

https://i.imgur.com/yaMTaqU.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/yaMTaqU.jpg)

that looks like a huge chunk of coins. of course assuming they still have all of them which i doubt.

I think the S15 sales will determine that next position of where bitmain will stand. and what is more important is the overall market situation. should we see another bull run soon, i think bitmain will survive at least by selling what ever worthless asics they are stuck with " assuming they will become profitable if prices should go up" . if we stay in bear market for couple more months. then it may be a fair-well to bitmain.

yeah  it is interesting to see what will happen.

I wonder if they will do a longer preorder on the 8th or gear will be a fast release. (very important)

A 6 week wait or longer on the new gear and the info floating around against them could man they are in trouble.

A fast ship and decent gear could mean they will right the ship.

And a long bear market will hurt them.

New product and process runs are a collaboration between customer and Foundry. Foundries set an initial cost the customer pays regardless of where defects occur.

Coingeek is owned by Calvin Ayre which is the epitome of unobjective. I'd wait to hear from more sources before believing anything.

It is conceivable I suppose. Just goes to show the power of the collective will. You can't singlehandedly turn it no matter how powerful you think you are.

I for one don't mind saying I hope the rumors are true, I have had bad experiences and blunders from their "team" and it cost me thousands, and I did not even get a "sorry"

I am glad there are other options/manufacturers now than there were a while ago, but this is just rumour so far.

IIRC a good while ago bitmain was in a similar situation (again rumour) and was said to buy coins enough to raise the price and dump getting more money for their total volume of coins to pay everyone, its an amusing thought tho.

For what it’s worth TSMC has already denied these rumors.

I saw a denial but it seemed to not be direct from TSMC

do you have an official link

Apart from protecting their own image of financial stability I can't see why TSMC would comment on a customers ability to pay bills unless they have gone well beyond the payment schedule. The only reason I see them making a statement denying these rumors is to ensure their shareholders that they aren't in trouble.

Can't say that I know anything about the money TSMC makes or how much of that Bitmain is responsible for; but I could see news like this affecting them more than Bitmain at the moment. So this statement may be nothing more than reassuring their business partners that they 1) Have no large amount of outstanding debt they may not be able to recover and 2) That they do not have any particular large customers that are ATM going out of business creating a potential sales void.

Only this was in the tweet, quotes a TSMC spokesperson:

https://m.sohu.com/a/273339023_115060/?pvid=000115_3w_a

---

TSMC rode on crypto:

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-mining-boost-helps-taiwanese-chip-maker-break-sales-record/

They better be quelling rumors...

Google translated this:


Well the interest is do we now jump on the new miner send bitmain money and hope all is well?

Considering the S15 batch shows sold out on day 1 for everyone outside China, I'm going to guess that even if they were legitimately having issues they now have it covered.

Now the interesting tinfoil hat moment I had when thinking about the timing of it all. Suppose they did hit some hard times. They've been mining these for a while on there end hoping for an increase in coin prices - whichever one is more beneficial to them. That didn't happen, money got tight, easy decision to decide it's time to sell to the masses.

I still think it was more of a PR stunt. Big old doom and gloom, news, followed by a new product launch and flagship product sellout. Easy way to create a nice positive buzz for that IPO they're launching.

I still don't believe a word of it, but do you think one batch of sales would turn around a company that had long standing problems? Plenty of companies turn over a lot yet still fly down the toilet. Even if they're selling a mountain of stuff, vastly more money could be flying out the door via other means.

BCH is their unknown millstone. I cannae believe a supposedly hard nosed operation would place such an irrational bet.

A ton of hash has left Btc to mine on Bch waiting for the Nov 15 fork .  That will be first step to see what bitmain is up to.

Bitmain has pushed hard on Bch for a long time.

If they succeed we could see a major value move for Bch and hash could flow towards Bch/fork big time.

Coinbase and poloniex are supporting fork.

Must say I'm not paying much attention to it. Presumably Bitmain is siding with Bitcoin ABC and the opposing fork is the Calvin Ayre/Faketoshi crew?

If that is the case then the opposing fork will die rapidly and it'll be back to business as usual for BCH - no one caring all that much though jettisoning those psychos can only be wonderful for all. But what do I know?

I agree. There is no scenario where BCH quickly escalates in value. Shit coin = shit price

Hopefully  that is the case and not some  odd shift  in the entire dynamic of BTC  BCH/Fork

Worst case is  BCH/Fork  grab a lot of hash  away from BTC   dropping  price of btc a lot

Best Case  Is  BCH/Fork  grab some hash away from BTC  keep things more or less stable  with  long term sideways movement.

Stable diff and stable price would be nice.  Ie  Just duplicate  the August 24-Nov 15 run  for the next 6 to 9 months.

Reality  Will show soon  between  The Nov 15th jump and the dec 1 jump.

Bch will never influence btc price ever again. It was a one off event. Bch may have future pumps like all shit coins do, but there is no way hash rate is going to lead price. And there’s no excitement about bch. If anything the price pump should have pumped pre-fork based on the 2 for 1 dynamics.

EDIT: Well, I haven't been paying attention, but BCH did already pump 50%. So that's right on cue. I'd expect the two coins to equal roughly the price of the one coin pre-fork. Of course, there is the possibility that Antpool will have to move hash power to fight off Faketoshi and Co. But I can't imagine they will have to move that much.

I do, to the extent of their BTC/BCH mining and hardware business.

Mostly because I don't think things were if at all bad, anywhere near what was being "reported". I had forgotten about the whole BCH fork which with it adds another dynamic for discrediting Bitmain. That would be in the interest of whoever is backing the opposite side of the BCH coin.

I have no idea how much money they are hemorrhaging fighting the coin battle or with their AI programs.  What I do know is they have a ton of hardware hashing away for them, that's money all day. Their new flagship model is proving to be a sellout product and will continue to do so until other manufacturers start shipping product. Until then this is in hand within 3 weeks, so people will keep lining up and throwing cash/BTC/BCH at them.

So while one batch doesn't bring them out of (an unproven and likely untrue) financial ruin, they can stick to the same gameplan they did pre-2017 spike to continue raking in massive gains.

I've never understood why Coinbase chose to support BCH.
Without Bitmain pushing it so hard for so long, it would be just another common junk coin with nothing in particular going for it, or more likely would not exist at all.

Poloniex supports quite a few junk coins, though they do weed out a few occasionally - and have also dropped some coins that have a REAL reason to exist (like CureCoin and Foldingcoin that support medical research).

Because Coinbase doesn't like the OG Bitcoin. For some reason they like everything that isn't Bitcoin. I'll guess because it's the one and only coin that's demonstrably beyond the influence of small cabals which does not fit into their wannabe bankster ethos.

After everyone failed to get S2X raped through, BCH became the next best possibility of a hijack, not that it ever had a hope.

Regardless of their feelings, you'd expect the actual launch of it on Coinbase to be far less disgusting than it was.

Odd concept since they've had original Bitcoin support longer than anything else.

Yeah and they have the winklevoss twins as major investors correct?

So since the twins were burned by Facebook replacing their idea.

They could feel Btc could be replaced by BCH so they figure diverse coins work to stop that.

Twins are turning into low time preference pumpers imo.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the S15s "selling out".  Bitmain has been known to have "sold out" of very small quantities of Batch 1 miners before - just to get the publicity.   For instance, perhaps the "sold out" of dozens or perhaps 100s of S15s in minutes.  No big deal.

Yep.
Who knows if they had as little as 10 miners for sale and sold out very quickly.  ;D

Was there not reports too of issues with the chips during development? 
I was sure there was a source that said the wafers were failing.

Could this be a reason to limit how many a customer can buy so they don't end up with 1000's of warranty repair or replace in the next few months.

I see what your saying. It does have a certain effect on the market and competitors if you can sell this unit. It seems almost futile unless they truly are grasping at straws, it really only buys them a few weeks when the orders are supposed to ship out. If there aren't a bunch of them being delivered to farms of all sizes it would just raise more questions about their business.


That would be one hell of a going out of business sale.


Yeah it was discussed a little at the beginning of the thread


Even if the limit is 2 per customer if the machines fail, you've just spread out the amount of pissed off consumers. More angry people by limiting the purchase amount. The Max quantity does lend more credence to the small batch argument more than anything. If delivered to a large enough sampling of people it does a better job of getting the word out as opposed to a couple of large orders buying up all the stock.

The diff math shows that not a lot of new gear is rolling out.

M10
S15
Inno turbo

they are not selling like mad.

What has happened here is :

 12 cent
 10 cent
   8 cent   all lose money at 5500 a btc coin.

with the s9 mining.
with the avalon 841 mining

to turn profit  at 8 cents  you need 100 watts at 1th

an s9 doing 14000 gh at 1400 watts at 8 cents makes 24 cents a day.

So a hosting of an s9  at 1.4 x 24 x 30 = 1008 kwatts  a 30 day month  so at 8 cents  that is 80.64 a kwatt

So if you have a contract for 10 kwatts that is 806.40 a month  to be at break even roughly 7 s9's

We all know the network has 65% s9 gear  all of it at 8 cents and up is dead.

So I ask you  if you have 7 s-9's  at 806.40 a month  (8cents)  and your 6 month renewal bill is due    will you want to pay 4838.40  fuck no you won't

So many hosting sites are going underwater.

If you have done okay for the last few years you may want to consider  mining at a loss with s9's rather then buying some s15

what is a pair of s15's 1475 + 1475 = 2950 add shipping add tax you are over 4050

what do you get  56th at 3200 watts at full speed

what are 4 s9's  56th at 5600 watts at full speed.

2.4kwatts x 24 hours = 57.6kwatts a day or 5.76 cents at 10 cent power  cost 4050

bitmain s9 on ebay with psu = 325 x 4 = 1300

so a savings of 2700    about 54th-56th    

now those s9's mining at 5.6kwatts = 134.40 kwatts a day at 10 cents  that is 13.44 a day

so for 200 days 2688 dollars

So  the s9s are better for 200 days then the s15  and I am not counting  the time you wait for the s15's

at 8 cents  it is 10.75 a day in power  that is 251 days  before the s15 catches up to the s9is

So really only small USA and Europe guys with high power costs have any real interest in the s15.

Lets make you  not in USA lets say Canada tax is 5%

so 2960 x 1.05 = 3108 + 200 to ship say 3308 that is 2k more then the s9's

so  10 cent power   2000/13.44 =  148 days before the s15 starts to catch up

so   8  cent power     2000/10.75 = 186 days defore the s15 starts to catch up

so  the demand at 1475  will be low

even a canada guy at 10 cent power should be very cautious to get a lot of them.

Because it's the biggest and the market demands it, not because they want it to be. They supported all the crappy initiatives to usurp the current version of Bitcoin and Bcash/BCH/BCHABC/BCHSV is ably proving what a shitty idea they all were.

Read that - https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1064181612815007745

Coinbase have never put out anything as pumpy related to BTC.

I wonder on who they sell.

You can not order an Antminer S9 and some other miners in Europe.

I do not know how all this is related but I still have coupons until the end of November.

I would like to redeem them. Unfortunately, I can no longer order the S9 from Europe. fraud?

That's the intention again. From December when all coupons have expired, you can certainly order again at higher prices. >:(

And it got worse in the last 24 hours.

Gotta wonder if Bitmain finally sold out on their remaining stock of S9 units and decided to pull the trigger on another round of "coin dump" to make more of a market for the S15/T15 as one of the very few profitable miners.

On the other hand, a lot of miners are at 5 cent OR LESS power cost, pretty sure even at current market conditions the S9 is still profitable for the low-cost miners.

I still think "Bitmain cash crunch" is the primary reason for the massive sell pressure on Bitcoin right now - had ANOTHER volume spike that seems to have caused the second "price dump".

Even the Avalon miners are being turned off..

Miners beware.  This footage is emotional....

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

pretty nice info.  makes me smile.

this all very good for the solar array  which has been paid off  and power is about 1 cent (for maintenance)

Would love to pick your brains over the solar array @philipma1957

I would agree it's happy times to see it in relation to diff but sad to see that pile being dumped like that.
Those miners could have a nice home somewhere else.

@MagicByt
Are you sure that the video footage is not filmed during the flood in Sichuan area, China?

This is fake news. That footage is from the flood that destroyed a Bitcoin mine.

^Damn, HagssFIN beat me to it.

That makes more sense If you have 100 watt a th gear

the red numbers at current diff are

12 cent power and 7697 price mines at a loss
11 cent power and 7055 price mines at a loss
10 cent power and 6414 price mines at a loss I suspect these miners have shut down a lot of  thier gear

9 cent power and 5772.10 price mines at a  loss
8 cent power and 5131.10 price mines at a  loss
7 cent power and 4489.10 price mines at a  loss   this is the group that will be shutting down if this lingers at these prices

6 cent power and 3848.10 price mines at a  loss
5 cent power and 3207.10 price mines at a  loss = these miners may do okay  since diff will drop a bit.

4 cent power and 2565.10 price mines at a  loss
3 cent power and 1923.10 price mines at a  loss =  these are doing just fine for today and I am think they  don't feel pain unless we drop  to 1750

I'm afraid it's not from the floods.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/07/02/flood-destroys-hundreds-gpus-asics-china

That is the floods.

also note no water damage to the miners on the ground.. or wet patches that would suggest flooding.

Maybe not

Same Twitter saying they will pull off S9 miners from hosting because they cannot cover costs.
https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1065016992657301504

https://www.ccn.com/rumors-flood-in-sichuan-china-destroyed-bitcoin-mining-centers/
https://www.coindigital.com/heavy-flooding-damages-major-crypto-mining-operation-in-china/

Way I see it is that only way Bitmain will recover is BCH rebound of 200-400% to clear their assets problems.

BCH needs to go to 750 or more.  Maybe 1000

we are looking at a major play  that could backfire.

you need to go all the way back to the Hunt brothers and their play to own the silver market back around 1977-1978  to see anything like this move.

This of course assumes your floor rental cost is zero, payments on the equipment are zero, maintenance is zero, and of course the one slave who runs the mine is paid 0.

At this point I think these dingbats are mining at a loss. Otherwise they would have crashed the market earlier just to wipe out other miners and lower the difficulty. That's why (IMO) it was rolling around 6500 or so.

Eh, we'll see what happens with this dick-fest.

There is no doubt that Bitcoin mines are struggling and shutting down, possibly even going bankrupt. However, this idea that they’re throwing away machines in this fashion that are still selling for hundreds of dollars each is nothing more than a fantasy.

Also, Bitmain is not going belly up. They’re about to list a multi-billion dollar IPO. Let’s keep a little bit of sanity.

The floor is not wet in this video. It just seems like they're pulling the miners out of the hack.

That's going to be the biggest joke IPO in history. And yeah, I doubt they are chucking gear like that.

I'd not bet on that - they're probably in the 3 cent OR LESS range on their power cost.

---

An IPO that has already had WIDELY talked about as having a lot of unrealistic expectations and some outright LIES in it.
I'd not bet on that IPO doing well if it actually makes it to market.

At .067 I just shut off 36 s9s for the time being to weather the storm and not eat away at my profit from the last 9 months. My z9 and video cards are still on.

As always, philipma1957 and the numbers  :)

And those are for 100w/th not for 150-160 in case of the 741, (assuming those are indeed 741 as I can't really tell from that video).

Going back to bitmain, if they kept the BCH or made the stupid mistake of converting BTC to BCH like some say they are doing it's not probably the most cheerful mood over there right now.

I somehow doubt TMSC is going to accept BCH as payment  ;D

Lot of blood in the water  sharks are circling.

As someone who has been mining for 7+ years, I can tell you that making decisions based on current prices is not a historically wise thing to do.

You are still profitable at 0.067.
Too rash of a move, but who knows longer term.

There was also some talk of them reaching out to samsung floating about but again I don't think they will be happy to work with bitmain if there are large bills outstanding with TSMC and now this crazy "hash" wars.

IPO might just be a way for them to clear some of this debts.

Other thing that makes me think that indeed there are some larger shut-down's happening is the hash rate is falling and has been for past 60 days.
People are claiming the hash is going to the "hashwar" but from looking at the numbers I don't see the switch between BTC and BCH or SV.

With the "sudden" release of the asic boost firmware into the public domain and with the S15 only being sold on the bitmain site in batch 1, 2 per customer while the T15 was 50 units tells me they did a limited run of the chips most likely due to the large outstanding bills to the chip manufacturer.

https://twitter.com/btcking555/status/1070068239542206465?s=09

Q3 involved a $740 million loss for Bitmain according that Twitter account, however they've come out with enormous pronouncements before that I haven't seen corroborated anywhere else.

Considering what a total cratering BCH has been involved in I guess it feels more feasible than ever. They're saying that figure also does not include that hash war.

Of course those are rumors from a "leaked" document but still, there is no way they would end the year the same as 2017.

The bulk of the mining rig sales was made last year at outrageous prices, there is a clear downtrend now, their investment in BCH have come down almost 20! times from the ATH, profits from mining are obviously down also.

And if Q3 is like that what numbers could we expect for Q4?

As of right now, an S9 is still profitable mining Bitcoin - BARELY - at a power cost of less then 0.074 per KWH.
That would be closer to 0.06 but Bitcoin has shown a significant DROP in hashrate and difficulty through November and early December - close to 20% over the last 5 weeks.
Gotta wonder how long the current pricing being SO depressed is going to take before a serious number of "new miners" from the last year-and-a-half give up and shut down/sell their rigs.

Profitability TODAY is a lot lower for pretty much ANY coin than it has been in the last 3 years (exceptions are pretty much ALL "haven't existed that long" coins like ZEC).

Thank Jihan Wu for CRATERING the markets with his "war on BCH-SV" and cashflow issues with Bitmain - and IMO Bitmain should be BOYCOTTED because of the garbage they've pulled this past month-and-change on miners in general.
I plan to never buy a Bitmain product ever again - this garbage was the final straw.

Ja. I stopped buying BM products a couple years ago when they stopped accepting BTC for payment for a while and tried forcing us to use BitCH instead.

Got my 1st Avalons then and have never looked back. :)

Only Bitmain product I've bought since the S3 days were some S7-LN to hack down to 0.22J/GH and make quiet heaters out of.

I left Bitmain's corner somewhere between when they upped the price of the S5 by 30% in one day just because they could, when they released the S4+ with worse efficiency, worse reliability and worse price, when the S5+ and S7 cemented their strategy of impractically high power and unsustainably high power density and the expected decrease in system reliability resulting therefrom, and when they redesigned the S7 for cheaper manufacture and notably worse efficiency and heat handling but didn't change the advertised specs or price. And that was all in like 2015.

Well ccn  decides to pile on.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-is-a-dead-man-walking-claims-creative-planning-cio/

btw  it will never go as low  as stated above.

"As CCN reported, Marks said people who buy bitcoin do so only because they want to turn a quick profit by selling their holdings to a “greater fool” than themselves.

“This is what we called when I was a kid, the ‘greater fool theory,’” Marks said. “They think someone will buy it from them at a higher price. Not because they can specify its intrinsic benefits. Not because they can judge the intrinsic value. But only because they think it’s going up.”"

Gotta say, I agree with the guy insofar as that speculation and margin trading is what greedy bastards do to ruin Bitcoin - at least ruin it for the rest of us. It didn't start as a get-rich-quick scheme and it better not end that way either. Some of us actually use it as a means of exchange for products and services - a currency - rather than merely as a tradeable commodity, and have been wishing for years for a value based more on utility than hype. That substantial philosophical divide is what separates the men from the boys around here, and folks looking at it as an "investment platform" to profit without putting up any real effort are the boys.

Oh if I had merit to give to that. I'll just open another beer, cheers sidehack.

I sent him 6 points for that 3 for you and 3 for  me.

What a guy! To early for a beer on the west coast but a little dab for ya this morning philipma.

Looks like Bitmain is adjusting to market at least for the new gear. Still holding back DR5 for just Chinese market can't be helping their numbers since most miners are hungry for profits. Though Q3 shows a dramatic loss, obviously with Q4 releases they're recouping some of those losses. Still their budget is shot for the year. With news of the closure is Iran or was Israel? I imagine they've been trimming fat since Q2.

I get kinda sad when I see some old timers on here talking about mining in terms of profitability. Mining was never about profits...people that talk about that I put in the same group as traders, hypers, and get rich quick guys that ruined bitcoin back in 2013, and again in 2017. Mining is here to secure the network and DISTRIBUTE coins period. If your mining and selling your coins your doing it wrong.

I hope bitmain and all large scale miners eat their shit this year. Crypto was supposed to be more than about pure greed, and the influx of greed I have seen in the past year in this space has made me sick.

Maybe if this happens guys like myself and sidehack will have a chance again to keep distributing miners and spreading out the hash to thousands if not hundreds of thousands more and maybe see the space go back to a slight vision of what it should look like.

I'm pretty sure Bitcoin was not designed to be a charity case. If it were I presume the idea would've been binned instantly as hopelessly naive. It was always going to be ravaged if it requires good will. There isn't very much of that in the world, even more so when it comes to money.

It's about boxing and pointing self interest towards the benefit of something bigger. That requires profit and plenty of it.

Charity and a decentralized distribution system are not the same.

Part of Bitcoins current issue, and general adoption issue is that fact that the barrier of entry for new adopters is just too high, and nearly all new coins issued are going to a centralized cartel and dumped straight onto exchanges by a select few industrial miners.

You tell me what the Bitcoin ecosystem would look like if there were 10 or even 100 million home miners mining at 1TH/s each, instead of 10,000 farm miners each circle jerking each other and dumping their coins.

You'd have a true user base engaged at the base level, with a wide distribution of coins and a real market for real businesses to adopt the currency, and the price would reflect that.

For most of us, mining has ALWAYS been about profits.
The majority of miners (and probably the LARGE majority of us) can't AFFORD to mine if we're LOSING MONEY at it.

Your only "losing" money if your comparing it to fiat and mining on a large scale. The only case ill agree with you is when you can buy any crypto for less than its electricity cost

For me bear markets are the most fun, because as far as I'm concerned this is the MOST profitable time for me (i.e. I get to pick up more coins for the same equipment than a few months ago).

I could care less what greedy traders, manipulators, and fraudsters in the industry think the price is worth, all I care is that I have more bitcoins than yesterday.

Ill cherish the day when there are 10's of millions mining bitcoin on their 100 watt machines, and could care less what what it costs to mine since a single light bulb wont make a dent in their power bill, and this causes all centralized mining farms to go belly up.

THATS the true vision of Bitcoin, and anyone that disagrees does not get it.

You sound pretty delusional if you ever think this is going to happen. Where there is profit to be made, people will turn up to make that profit. It is incredibly naive to think you can put the genie back into the bottle at this point.

I'll disagree that mining without considering profit is the end-all be-all, but also with the point that industrial miner cartels are hosing things for the rest of us. The current environment is proof of how much power a few specific individuals have and that is far from healthy.

It's going to be really interesting in a few more halvings when the block reward starts getting dwarfed by transaction fees. If the currency isn't widely used as a currency by that point it won't be sustainable and the current profitability model for industrial miners dependent on block rewards will go out the window.

I would also like to see a 100W miner in every home, and not just because jstefanop and I are the only ones still building them. If this thing is gonna work, it needs to have a wide-spread acceptance and understanding and a base less susceptible to corruption and manipulation.

well isn't this the reason why people stop mining? when you have to pay more bills than what you earn in FIAT then it would make more sense to buy bitcoin directly,mining at break even is also a loss , since you are consuming a product that has a very  limited -life span ( both technically and economically) while you can just sell it and buy bitcoin instead.

anyone mining at a loss or break even could be categorized as one of these ( at least in my opinion)

1-They believe in BTC more than they believe in their wives, the are simply mining to satisfy a mysterious genius "Japanese" person's Vision(very RARE)
2- They want to get bitcoin without having to go through banks and KYC B.s  , aka a secret fund ( very a few)
3- They think the price of bitcoin will recover before they have to pay their bills or at least not before the point where they can't afford it ( not many )
4- some people are just stupid ! ( many )

Sure people called lots of things stupid when they couldn't understand the true nature and vision of what they playing with...definitely not calling them stupid now ;)

You can say holding on to the fundamentals of the technology naive all you want, but thats my creed and thats what I go by and why its worth the effort I put into this. Just like people put value on Bitcoin itself, there is more "value" to mining than the pure bitcoin you get out of it.

But alas you are right most people ARE stupid but not in the way you think. Its kind of the same reason why democracy is failing today because people dont find the incentive or profit to go "vote".

You know you're a miner when it's -5c outside and your AC is running.....

Interesting to me to hear from a large guy like fanatic26.

I am not going to get to go to his level of 20mw at 2cents .(his claim) not mine.

I consulted on a 100mw build that was to act as a load leveler for 5 power plants.

Got a price just under 4cents.

There is a true need for big farms that help to stabilize power plants usage.

That is big scale and needs to exist.  But while there is really and truly a demand for mining in the manner I just mentioned we need to make demand for coin. If you think of every pow coin as a way to burn excess power for power plants then any one will do.

Con-ed
Pse&g
Or any major power company does not care what coin the farm they cut a deal with mines.

So while they have a need to cut a deal with a farm they have zero incentive what coinis mined.

That’s why bitmain and other asic builders went out and wiped out lots of algos with many different miners.

This to me is classic clear cut forestry vs forest management.

Based on humanity’s past record the forest will be cleared not managed.

The question is wtf is bitmain up to?
Or how much power does bitmain really have here?

One more thing will mr trump and the USA government go after any and all bitmain executives.

They just used Canada to grab the cfo of huawei.  Hold her and want to try her in the USA and sentence her to 30 freaking years.  The charge is fraud and helping Iran beat the boycott embargoes.

So. Seems to me. USA may look to lock up bitmain execs for helping Iran do the same.


Note it is all speculation but a lot is happening behind the curtain.

I didn't think anyone was using AC to mine. Particularly in that cold of a temperature. You just up the airflow and use the ambient air from outside to cool everything. Even in the summer, just with even more airflow.

maybe he was joking

If I had merits I would send you a bunch.

I fully agree with you I also wonder what the difficulty would be like now too if we had not seen farms and pools and had kept mining simple and for home miners.

When people can't "participate" it pushed people away from a system what bitcoin needed was more user adoption but like already said that route is now no longer a viable one for newcomers.

Use and mass adoption don't come from mining. It comes from utility and "use cases" ( adoption as a payment option by Amazon) being a solution to existing problems. BTC is unable to scale, plain and simple. It is a brilliant and essential protocol, but has no ability to grow and scale. It hasn't changed one iota in many years. The internet achieved the same "stall" early on, and we are still "early on". If and when BTC becomes massively scaleable, then and only then will it be massively adopted. IE; Lightning Network or similar solutions the this dinosaur. Right now it is still just a store of value. Subject to the same fluctuations as any other store of value such as Gold or Silver. Once it becomes transactionally viable, you'll see a whole new world. Until then people will keep blaming boogie men, such as "short sellers and miners".

You'll have to explain why it's not "transactionally viable", given that the network is literally a store of transactions.

Volatility can be blamed on boogeymen, since they're the only ones who profit from exploiting that kind of thing, and volatility prevents widespread utility. The problem with reduced utility is a self-fulfilling prophecy. People see a thing to be exploited, make it unstable, and there's no mass adoption. Because there's no mass adoption, it remains unstable and exploitable. It's only seen as "a store of value" because the ones who use it that way, by continuing to use it that way, prevent it from being used as intended.

To an extent. Technically this was supposed to go to WO, but for some reason I posted it here. That said, it does point out another reason to mine: Free heat. I could run a space heater in the upstairs room, but instead run miners to keep the top floor warm. The bitcoins offset the heat bill and their drone acts as an excellent white noise generator.

The AC unit kicks on when the room temp goes over 75F. This is kind of funny when it's 20F outside, and the unit is basically free cooling from the outside to inside.

In the summer the difference in miner temps between 75 degree AC cooled air and 100 degree outside air is quite substantial. For longest life IMO it's best to keep the air inlet temps below 80 or so.

This is really getting off topic now isn't it? Bitcoin is a currency, a store of value. The freedom is that you're sovereign to do what you wish with it like any other money. The great thing is that it's yours if you hold your keys. As far as mining for profit, I do and I don't. I'll be excited for the day when there is no reference to a fiat market.   

Bitmain looks like they're taking notes and releasing more gear. All said and done the S11 should have been release earlier this year Q2. They may be better off, then their fun with altcoins really is what killed them anyway. That and budgeting for a market/demand at 20k. I suppose my philosophy is about establishing roots, not growing branches. Leaves, flowers, fruits will come if you're able to sustain them.

Yes it is a store of transactions.  But it is slow and archaic and incapable of competing with the "Kings" of the space. Paypal, Visa, Master Card etc. Once activity gets too voluminous and the network overwhelmed, and it doesn't take much. It slows to a crawl and Tx fees become prohibitive. They even get very unfair as we've all seen and prioritize preference and order of block verification by amount of payment. To your point of "volatility". I would disagree in part. In fairness, BTC's market cap and available supply make it susceptible to wild swings in price. This can happen on the "long" side and the "short side" of the market. It's long been a bane of newer technologies to suffer these influences. It's human nature to try and find someone or something to blame. It's just growing pains. a natural process of "price discovery". BTC had no business being valued at $19,000 just as it has no business being valued at $2,500.00. When scaling solutions become the norm, we will all cheer and jump for joy as the existing "shorts" in the market get their heads ripped off. Just as the "wrong longs" got their heads ripped off at the highs.

Scaling to appropriate and competitive levels by today's standards means at least 1 million transactions per second capability. LN can do this once it's adopted and implemented (or something similar). This is what I mean by "transactionally viable".

No, I'm losing money if my income from mining is less than what I have to pay to do the mining.
You are confusing "investment" and "mining" - and I don't have the LUXURY of just hanging onto my mined cryptocoin as an investment, I have bills to pay and no other income source to pay them with.

It's true you're losing money. What most don't see is the benefit to mining at lower diff if your time preference is low or lower or lowest. Or simply have really cheap power. There is no point for most to mine if there isn't profit. Fact. Power down now. It's understandable, is sound, is good business. If you aren't equipped to weather the storm as a business or hobbyist, power down. Really very simple. The beauty of bitcoin is in the simplicity.

People want to debate about a death spiral. Not happening. Mass computation. Not happening. You want to protect the network, run a full validating node with some hash on it.

Bitmain got greedy, which is understandable actually. Is what people expect if you're not a steward. Hash means nothing if consensus doesn't follow. And consensus is more than just running software in the world.

Back to bitmain and their finance, they've started a cloud mining business.
The topic got trashed here so I'm not going to name the website or put links to it but for a buyer, it was a pretty bad investment even with the so-called 30% off.

For me is just an attempt to grab more cash as fast as they can and deal with the payments later (if any) as their ToS is a joke.

Are they seriously sinking, and the rumors about loses are not just rumors anymore? Guess will find out once they will have to reveal the financial situation for Q3 and Q4, if they are going to do it.

I think inventing your own currency, making sure that everyone gets a buttload of it for free, and then trading hardware for only that currency ("giving it away") wasn't exactly a brilliant financial strategy.

For whatever reason I thought they already had there hands in a filthy cloud mining operation. Doesn't surprise me that they would go that route, but it reeks of desperation.

I guess if the hardware isn't flying off the shelves you can trick a few people into a smaller initial investment that in the end leaves them well behind just buying coins; and Bitmain gets someone to pay off the gear and then had a machine to sell down the road.

The cloud "miners" will figure it out in a few months hopefully they dont sign a stupidly long contract

Whether it "reeks of desperation" or not, those are pretty attractive 30 day ROI's they are offering.

"Subject to immediate change." Daily maintenance is pretty prohibitive also. Looks pretty crummy to me. I wouldn't touch it.

Bitmain has offered cloud mining for years intermittently.

Seems Bitmain english store is sparse. Thoughts?

There is definitely a few dollars to be made if things stay the same. Odds are that if they do sell most of what they want to the discount price will dry up, it doesn't look like they are planning longer term offers at those prices, so it's kind of a buy now or never. Which is just smart advertising,

"the clock is running out, these deals won't last forever, once their gone their gone"

My comment about desperation was a reflection on their need for cash in hand now. There are companies that thrive and plan to operate at losses such as Amazon, but this isn't one of those times. They screwed with the market to heavily, and the BCH issues going back to it's creation no less have put a strain on how much cash they can splash around.

They honestly had everything going for them, Market Share, Branding, Diversification - with pools and hardware as well as taping different Algos. I'm still not sure their predicament right now is due to paying for chips, I think it was a shear loss of capital in what they had from Crypto, which hits them doubly as sales have staled. Combine that with a reckless disregard for stability; and you have the current situation.

Are we talking about that BitDeer thing? It looks horrible: $4400 for 1 PH/s for 30 days. That's actually more that you can expect to mine with current diff and exchange rate.

looks like they(Bitdeer) limit your mining to only antpool and BTC.com ???  wtf?

yep  cause they use the s15 to mine  which is about 50 watts a th if pointed to their pools.

50 watts a the = 1.2 kwatts a day

at 3 cent power that is 3.6 cents
at 4 cent power that is 4.8 cents
at 5 cent power that is 6.0 cents

they charge you 13 cents a th  up front   this puts you at 100% risk  for diff jumps and price drops

look at the gray line on the chart below

it is on the way up that is the current real time diff

i.e.  bitdeer f'ing idiots in the butt

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1544880602 (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1544880602)

look at the price dip  coins are now at 3114   this is bitdeer cashing out the buyins of the contract  right now  thus casuing price drop in the coins

so this new venture is directly raising diff and lowering price.

better yet  that can terminate your contract if it has 15 losing days in a row.  which it will if diff moves upward and price drops.

0%  risk for them 100% risk for you

Unfortunately, from a strictly "psychological" standpoint, this is very indicative of a market that is not near it's price bottom yet. There are still too many people that are optimistic enough to throw money at a ridiculous scheme like this. For " capitulation " to truly occur, there needs to be an atmosphere of utter negativity and despair towards BTC. When you stop seeing stunned sheep using terms like "HODL" and start cursing at the very mention of "BTC", it's not over. There will be more blood. Hopefully that entails Bitmain going belly up.

yeah  you are very likely correct.

I advise holding as much cash as possible rather then as much coin as possible.

my cash to coin %  is 80 cash to 20 coin

I have

BTC  which is about  60% of the coin
BCI which is about  30% of the coin
RVN say   4%
LTC  say   3%
Doge say 2%

various say 1%

perhaps not, but isn't it possible they own (or have access to) lots of obsolete mining hardware they can point at bcash, which would otherwise be useless? aside from the initial "airdrop" people needed to buy bcash to buy hardware---that propped up the price too. i figure these two points factored into their plan. it seems incredibly risky whatever the result.

still i am very skeptical of this story because coingeek (calvin ayre) seems to be the only source for it and TSMC seems to have refuted it (https://twitter.com/nishantsharma87/status/1059324737837584389).

Bitmain finally closing out their firesale on their obsolete 28nm gear but haven't had the chance to ramp up production on most of the 14nm replacements yet due to their push to get S15/T15 units sold so they can meet their bills with current cashflow.

Anyone else notice this new "S11" unit - looks like the same chips as the S15/T15 but set to run at a slightly higher voltage per chip than the T15 giving lower efficiency, and a few less chips for lower hashrate.
Makes me wonder if there's going to be a "S13" sitting between this one and the T15 eventually.

They should drop the t15 to under 800 USD.

I just noticed that bitmain took everything off their English website, they kept only the S11,S15,T15 and DR5 .  and they all are due to ship next month !
the S11 is actually to be shipped by end of Jan ! .

seems like bitmain is in desperate need for CASH !

Doubt that will happen anytime in the next 2-3 years and DEFINITELY not in the next year (barring a major Bitcoin collapse well below the $2000 level) with their S11 in the $500 range as the new bottom-end of the line and the T15 still offering higher efficiency AND higher hashrate than the S11.

The way things look right now in the semiconductor industry, I don't expect a real "new node" past the current 7/10 nm node for at least 4 more years to reach "production" status, and it MIGHT take a lot longer than that given some of the commentary out of IBM and Intel and Intel's major issues getting their 10nm process to work well.

Quantum effects have been a noticeable issue in superconductors for a couple decades now (NOT counting Tunnel Diodes that were specifically engineered to take advantage of Quantum Effects) and it's been getting worse every new "node" generation on an exponential basis.

Price will drop. Will have to as new machines come out. Short term anything under $800 will benefit consumers in the US right now and drive sales.

Bitmain.com has a new look apparently.

Yup T15s at $840 minus any $65 coupons you've been given, making it a sub $800 unit.

lets do some usa math for usa buyer.

buy one at 840 +110 = 950 x 1.276 = 1212-65 = about 1150

high power = 23000gh and 1600 watts  I rounded

2 used s9i on eBay = 500
2 used psus =            170

total 670     vs 1150

hash  23000   watts 1600
hash  27000   watts  2550

pretend they come the same day I am spending 950 watts extra with the s9i  that is 25kwatts a day round up

750 kwatts a month  at 6 cent power that is 45 dollars a month  so in ten months you save 450 in power with the new gear

but you lose 4th a day in hash that is 24 dollars a month  current prices so you don't save 45 a month you save 21 a month for the new gear and you spent an extra 480 to do so.

so buying the t15 at 840 with a 65 dollar coupon is moron move for a usa buyer when he can buy 2 s9i's used on eBay easy peasy.

Bitmain has fucked the game up hard.

now that is a 6 cent power  set of fact  480/21 = 23 months to be even

at 7 cent it is faster  you gain 28.50 a month over the s9i.

I'm sure the general conclusion is correct but I'm not sure about the numbers?
The price of a T15 is $840-$65 ($775) plus taxes and shipping (it comes with a built in PSU).
In the non US tariff world we don't have such high taxes.

Bitmain is going to zero. If they even think about IPO'ing it will be a Stand up Comedy show instead of a Road show!

In a no tax  country it is 840 + 110 = 950 - 65 - 885
 
So you still gain 28.50 a month over a pair of  used s9i's with 7 cent power.

so 885-670 = 215/28.50 = at 7 ½ months  which is much better then  480/28.50 = 16.84 months.

The Trump tax  hurts bitmain  bigtime.

I would argue  that at 7 cent power buying any gear is a tough choice for a USA guy.

If you are a 4 cent guy:

4 x 750 = a 30 cent power savings  new gear
old gear earns  24 more   so net is 6 dollars    

So no 4 cent power guy wants  the new gear  it is only 6 dollars better each month.

This means  only a handful of buyers want the new gear.  6 cent 7 cent  8 cent power guys it makes sense.

maybe 9 cents  and anyone over 9 cents should not mine much right now.

2,3,4,5 cent  should  think old s9i
6,7,8,9 cent  maybe  new gear is better.
10 cent and up no gear.

So a lot of people don't want the gear.

I'm finding brand new S9i 14 th in the states that I can physically pick up and avoid shipping altogether. $220.00 WITH PSU in original unopened box. Then I pop the ASICBoost Frimware upgrade on them and I can't believe how reliable smooth and efficient these units are. These are my favorite of all S9's to date. I'm sub .05 per Kwh so it's an easy call. I have absolutely no reason to even think about these new units. Not to mention, they haven't been running enough to get sense of their reliability. These things could very well turn out to be an RMA fest.

A LPM s9i  does 13,700 at 1275watts on the wall  that is 93 watts a th

some LPM  s9i do 13,900 at 1250 watts on the wall that is 90 watt a th

I have been getting them with a psu for 250 usd.

my power deal is  a 50 50 coin split  so it is 6900 th for free  so for me 6-7 month roi.

While I want the new gear  it is still too much $$

So in effect  bitmain has priced this too high  for the USA  unless the buyer is in the 6,7,8 cent power range.

Still a ton of offline hash power available.  If you are USA based buying from new from bitmain vs buying from used from ebay is an easy choice.

You can still get s9's from bitmain. They're just reluctant to advertise it.

Price, Tariffs and shipping make it cost prohibitive.

De minimis value makes these cost effective still. we've provided a cadence for shipments that works for large orders for buyers.

So the rumour mill's grinding out more Bitmain-related stuff. From Hong Kong, regulators are saying the industry's too immature for it to allow for it to consider Bitmain's IPO for a go ahead, probably a non-news by itself but then the other reactions seem to say that the company itself is taking that news seriously... this https://cryptonomist.ch/en/2018/12/24/bitmain-news/ news article shows a LinkedIn update from employees usually making the posts, talking about a 50% redundancy plan. Huge contraction underway.

I throw my s9 into the trash. If they are sold cheaply, they represent a competitor.

You should recycle it instead. Lot of places will pay poundage for e-waste, and those things are at least 50% aluminum by weight with, because of their circuit density, a fair bit of copper and plated gold besides.

Yes right, my english is very poor. Off course i mean trash = e-waste.

Do they work? I'll buy them. Trashing perfectly good machinery doesn't seem too rational.

Yes they work. One s15 new, one s9 in the garbage.

https://twitter.com/cryptonodon/status/1078947080092102656

https://www.odaily.com/post/5135367

Ever more dramatic tales seem to be popping up. As always in cryptoland the actual truth seems to be rather more sluggish to arrive, if it ever does at all. The above hints at total craterage.

I googled translated it

https://www.odaily.com/post/5135367

and found a lot of good info.

worth doing it for an interesting read:


the quote I lifted from the article and I extrapolate that  the issue of not being able to sell the s15 or t15 direct to usa (trumps tax)  is why bitdeer has been founded.

Just remember bitdeer is selling s9 contracts with s9 power charges and zero proof they use s9's to mine.  

So at 13 cents a th if those new s9 contracts are really using s15 bitmain gets a good helping hand from morons that are buying s9 contracts.

DING DING DING!! As per usual, Philipma rings the bell. I have zero doubt that this is true. No shortage of stunned morons in Crypto land...

The problem at Bitmain making new miners was their main hardware guy left quite a long time ago.

He now runs Poolin after their agreement that required him to not compete expired.

While many people like to think that anyone can make a miner that performs in the arena of what is required to be able to sell it, the fact is that few can.

BitDeer is just luls at this point. Bitmain got hit real hard with that fallout with faketoshi. 

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1104635332274749446

Though there is some insider information, Bitmain selling only 1k units is just false.

If he had any desire for credibility he'd create a separate account and ID. No one's going to believe him coming from his own account. Whatever truth is in there, he's the definition of compromised.

it's most likely fake, but the S15 has been more "out of stock" than in stock, also based on the coupons distrubitons which i talked about in this thread >https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5114713.0 , despite the fact that statistics i had at my disposal were fairly small,  i am almost certain that bitmain did not sell anything above 10,000  S15s at best case scenario.

but i am starting to doubt the theory about them going broke what so ever, the 1,1 billion profit they hit last year will keep them going until the next bull cycle whereby they will boost their production and profit again, i strongly believe that bitmain will dominate the mining market for decades to come.

That account is posting like 20 tweets a day, has he any record of some leaks that turned true?


They've "lost" 500 million in Q3 (https://cryptoticker.io/en/bitmain-ipo-document/),  Q4 was even worse and 2019 isn't looking pretty neither for the price nor for the gear sales, but I'm saying this just from looking at the hashrate (which isn't going anywhere, we're at July levels) and from the profits of mining somewhere around 3-4 cents, no inside data  ;D

I am nowhere the scale of bitmain.  ;D

But I made out really well in 2017 so well  that all of 2018 I concentrated on trying to create cheap power. I lost money in 2018 but now have a big improvement in power.  Soon to be even bigger.

So if you make 4-6 units  in 2017 lose 1 unit in 2018 lose 1 unit in 2019.
you are up 4 units.  Not saying it is true but bitmain may have made as much as 4-6 billion for 2018.
  
A 1 billion loss for 2018 and a 1 billion loss for 2019 means they have 2-4 billion profit for the three years.
If they did what I did i.e. make a much better power setup  they will be okay.

Unfortunately, as I would rather see your farm with that much hashpower than Bitmain.


Again, this is according to some documents I can't vouch for but they've had a profit of 1bil in 2017.

According to some they've had yet another 1.1 billion in profit in the first half of 2018, not all of 2018. And those were times with mining at 10k per coin (average) and selling an s9 and 1300(1100 ???) and even so having all batched sold out.

So at this point, they had 2 billions stashed.

In q3 they end up with minus 500, and we don't know how q4 looks but if we are pessimistic we could say another -500, seeing how their btcash hoard went down and how much hashpower they've used in their hashwar. That would lead to a year with 0 in profits.

So they would have a reserve for 1 or two years in a bear market while spending like crazy and keeping bcash afloat.

Not saying they will go belly up but they are going to have to change something, and I don't know if this is going to be good or bad for us.

But before that, can you share which of the leaks were, or are, untrue?

Although some of the leaks might have the wrong information, he was right that some details on Bitmain's reports and financials for its IPO application were doctored to hide the truth about the state of the company.

I think excellion and worse btcking555 get a bit of a free pass based on the fact that 'we' all hate bitmain.. I don't mean to lump the two in the same camp in terms of what they actually post(though i would speculate they are the same or similar/shared entity) as btcking555 is much more ludicrous... I haven't observed that much from excellion that was correct// i keep meaning to go back through and fact check.. as u say.. plenty . of claims made all the time by SM

You got that wrong but it's also probably my fault for not asking it in a better way as I don't have a clue who is behind that account, nor his history, that's why I've asked if he has done in the past a scoop like that and it turned to be true. With the avalanche of "crypto experts" and "insiders" these days it almost impossible to keep track of them unless you really dedicate a lot of time to it. And I can't do that :P.

But well, in the end, you answered my question. He is sometimes right, sometimes wrong, so only time will tell us which one of those is this time.

I believe in Samson Mow's credibility, although there some people, like franky1, who don't, which makes it easier to believe in Samson Mow's credibility. 8)

samson mow lost his job when BTCC went belly up with their IPO with DCG (sound familiar)
i think samson is actually talking about the only thing he does have knowledge of ... BTCC and his own job loss experience

need i forget to add some of the pools tagged as "antpool" are not actually managed by bitmain.
something samson has no clue about.

anyway
samson been saying about 'bitmain dead' since last summer..
yet q1+$500 q2+$500 q3-$500 = still+$500..... not -$500
yet they made s15.. since then
yet they made s17 since then
yet bitmain still has exahasha of hashrate. still has jihan working for them

wait didnt samson say jihan lost his job 6 months ago..
hang on.. 6 months later.. dang that is some long resignation period

P.S its not about credibility. its about DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH OUTSIDE YOUR ECHO CHAMBER OF BUDDIES
P.S you think bitcoin is limited to your lil group of friends. and im the only opposing voice.. then you really have locked yourself into a small room.

Anyone else think that Jihan is possibly friedcat?  Or that bitfountain and Bitmain are related?

I don't think that Jihan is friedcat.

Friedcat had the ASICMiner project.
Eg. ASICMiner Cube https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=352658

The Antminer S1 and ASICMiner Cube were competing in the market about at the same time era (winter 2013).

Also Friedcat was technically competent, if I recall correctly..

Whereas Jihan is the business side of the duo behind Bitmain.

no he wasnt, the performance of his chips sucked

If ASICMiner hadn't fallen apart before the BE300 got past engineering samples they'd have been the best thing on the market for several months. Demonstrated efficiency was better than the S5, with bottom clock almost on par with the S7 which rolled out nine months later. Those chips are the reason I started building miners.

ASICMiner's problems were managerial shortcomings, not technical. Bitmain's problems are managerial overreach and greed. Different problems, different people.

I didn't know to what extent, but contrary to the post above yours, i did not think friedcat was incompetent like they suggest

anyway @phillipma
I didn't know where to ask, since i thought it should be public anyway, but can you start a thread on speculating what you expect the halvening to do? People i know in the industry are confident. "we've been here before and it went well". I only started following Bitcoin like this recently, I'd love some thoughts from you and others that have ridden out the past halvenings versus what you think will happen this time similarly/dissimilarly.

Done and I like your idea so I gave you a merit.

New thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5126990.0

Do you think so?

It would be really interesting to see them fold and shut down all their cloud platforms

bitdeer  and hashnest to fold = huge issues

My understanding is that Friedcat's name was Jiang Xinyu.  https://news.8btc.com/tracking-friedcat-after-his-missing-in-2015  (I especially like how Ayn Rand is spelled in it...)

Jihan knew about my private communication with Asicminer.  Unless I misunderstood his explanation, he worked with asicminer before he started bitmain.

I thought this was public knowledge, but searches aren't turning up one thing... unfortunately "asicminer" is essentially ungooglable because it's a generic term.

The above link says about Xie Jian, "He invested more than 1000 bitcoin and bought 11,000 FC shares, which made him one of the board members of Bitfountain." Another article says about Jihan Wu: "Wu Jihan and his friend Crazy Xiaoqiang (web writer, first-generation bitcoin speculator) each bought 15,000 shares and 12,500 shares of the roast cat company's virtual stock.".  So this suggests that Jihan Wu would have been a board member?

Yang Zuoxing, the former bitmain engineer that they were suing for making a rival chip claims to have done design for asicminer. He might be the right person to ask if someone really wants the straight dope.

They've had S9j models listed on their sales page every time I've looked for the last couple months - though sometimes out of stock.

I don't seem them going out of business anytime soon, though they had to retrench a TON when their $Billions of 7/10nm generation TSMC "risk dies" FAILED and they had no new miners to sell for many months, which seems to have been what led to their dump of most of their their BCH and BTC and other altcoins "stash" to fund operations through that rough period.

They seem to be back to operationally profitable at this point, selling lots of S15 S17 and new altcoin machines.

yeah they look okay to me
the s17 is really good gear.  I think they survived

Locked this as that rumor looks like it was not true.

Or if it was true it no longer looks true today.