Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/wS8Sy7o.jpg




looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market.


1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$


* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$

*if this scenario plays out , expect a sideways market for about 300 days !

* however during this market we can see up to 90% increase in price. before another decline to form the double bottom

* if 2500 is the lowest of the wick then we could rally up to 5k next year Q1  most likely after Bakkt launch.

-------------

should this support fail then we are simply screwed  ;D.

I've never really looked at monthly MAs on Bitcoin before. But I have a similar analysis, based on the 200-week MA. It's the same logic: it acted as support twice at the 2015 bottoms and we never closed below. It currently stands at $3,175 (Bitstamp), so we punched below it earlier today.

If it's going to act as support again, we only have a couple days left before the weekly candle closes. I'm excited to see if it closes back above.

so if things are too bad for bitcoin, we can only do this:

https://cdn5.vectorstock.com/i/thumb-large/36/64/air-traveler-emoticon-vector-12433664.jpg

we need to take a holiday so that we can relax and forget the price for a while, people are getting paranoid because the price is falling a lot, before I saw people saying it will fall to $3000, then I heard it will fall to $1500, then I heard it's going to fall to $1000 and then I heard it's going to fall to $600

That chart looks about right. I think we could see a short lived drop down into the 2000s below that support, but basically 3000 I think will be the long term support for the bottom. I don't think it'll be 300 days until the bull market starts though, not with several Wall St institutions bringing out exchanges, trading desks, etc in 2019. Going into 2019 there is a much more positive growth outlook than there was going into 2015. But I could see somewhat sideways trading in the 3000 - 5000 range going until mid-year before the tide turns.

It's almost scary how similar the post 2013 bull run correction is compared to the correction we're going through right now.

At the very end there was a harsh crash similar to the one from $6000 to where we are right now, and currently it's waiting for the mini flash crash (if it pops up to begin with) to form a bottom which will be followed up by a recovery. If that happens as well, then lol, I'm not sure what to think of it.

Currently there seems to be quite a decent chunk of buy support between $3100-$3200 and I expect it to ignite one massive wave of buy orders as soon as $3000 comes close. I expect the big walls to be hiding there.

Judging by the open interest change today it seems that the selling is drying up and the path of least resistance is on the upside at least temporarily.

Look at the open interest and how it changed when we hit the new lows. Yesterday the OI actually increased during the break because it looks like the OI decreased during the short squeeze up till $3300 area.

Today we had the lows tested again and very little open interest change, only when we got that $100 spike upwards did it decrease which was the shorts covering.

In the short run, we could see further decreases in price due to the fact that investor confidence right now is extremely low, and that fear is quite widespread across the market. As a result, I fully expect prices to dip below $3k at some stage.

But we are definitely close to the bottom. Your analysis is pretty much spot on, in my opinion, as the previous bear market bottomed out at around this level of percentage loss from the ATH as well. Even though that's not a sufficient enough piece of information alone to say that we're close to the floor, it will definitely play a role in this current market, especially as investors see this as a bottom signal.

However, the actual recovery is probably very far away still. Expect lots of sideways movements and further dips in the coming months. I don't expect bullish sentiment to return this year or even in 2019.

Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.

it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.

We are really getting paranoid as the days goes by which we do really stressed out ourselves too much on the current market condition not only on BTC but on some alts as well.
Speculative market do have continuous speculative views so I'm aint surprised that we would able to hear out different numbers along the way.

all that needs to happen is for selling to dry up. nothing needs to fundamentally change or improve. it's just a matter of supply and demand. bitcoin's market value is mostly based on speculation about future adoption and future utility IMO. people aren't going to sell based on scaling woes any more than they did in 2016 or 2017.

there are two long term pivots at $3k visible on the monthly chart, and the monthly 50ma / weekly 200ma are both in this area. shorts are also near historical highs. so there's a confluence of technical reasons for a major bottom here.

most of the things you said here are wrong and all of them are irrelevant to price!
for starters most investors in bitcoin has never given a shit about its scaling. most of them are in it for the money or are in it for the freedom thanks to its decentralization and lack of government involvement.
as for altcoins, ICOs and all that crap, none of them are truly dead. they are just undergoing their natural course of getting pumped and then dumped. and again nobody gives a shit about KYC not to mention that there is no KYC more than it was in 2017.

You screwed us! The whalecumulators are always scanning this forum to find opportunities to disappoint the plebs!

Or are you sent by the whalecumulators, to start this topic, to give us hope, and only for "them" to crash the market again?

One thing i've learned that it's not really reliable to base things from historical charts anymore. That's why we're in this kind of mess since many people were expecting an upward turn since historically, charts indicate that last quarters of recent years were more bullish.

Smart money is buying while everyone else is crying and screaming.  They do the opposite of what the mainstream noobs are doing.  There is just too much money in vested in crypto infrastructure for it to fail and a lot of people in government own crypto so they want to see it succeed.  One thing is for sure, this is thel ast chance we will have to get rich off crypto.

This is a possible scenario indeed but between theory and practice, there is always a difference... Even if I like this situation enough, I don't think the same thing will happen. We are in unknown territory at the moment, and the sphere is really different compared to 2013-015, there are many more things to consider.


This.

There is nothing firmly stating it could go down %85 before it takes off, I mean price doesn't really have to drop %85 exactly like it did previously, it could go down 90% or it could go down %80 and nothing would change. It will eventually go up that is the most certain part of this calculation, I am not sure what the bottom will be but I know the price won't be capped around here and eventually go back to previous all time high prices and go even above those prices, this maybe in couple months or in couple years but it will eventually happen.

What this tells all of us is that even if you buy right now and the price goes lower there is no need to worry because in couple years you will have an investment that made you quadruple of your investment and even more. We just don't know WHEN that will happen but we know it WILL happen.

Can't say I'm not liking the chart, but I'm now quite careful when we talk about lines that are never crossed yet or thresholds never broken. Bitcoin's been doing new things in the past 2 years, bucking RSI trends, breaking 30, 60 and then whatever-day average lines, so if we see BTC fall below 2.5k (certainly not implausible now) then yeah, we're pretty much in yet further new territory.

I'm "liking" 300 days of sideways movement though. It's what I'd been expecting for a long time, but if I've learnt any lessons, 2019's going to surprise in some fashion.

Really i don't know if the price will go to 2500$, but i can't be sure of nothing, anyway i will still hold and wait for the bull run even if will not start next year, i can wait, but i think in 2019 we will have a bull run.

Considering that during a bear market every bit of bad news will more likely impact the price, it will be interesting to see whether or not Bakkt will be given permission to launch their Bitcoin backed futures.

If not, we might be up for even more blood on the streets. The CFTC might very well consider the current market to not be a healthy environment to launch these products in, all to "protect" investors.

Or they simply don't want any product that's backed with Bitcoin. Based on that, I think it's more likely to see Bakkt yet again delay their launch than to have them launch next month. We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic.

Fundamentals now are better than last Dec , how is that relevant to price? BTC now has more adoption,more projects and in general it is technically and fundamentally stronger than it was during last year end, yet we are almost 85% down from ATH. i can tell you one thing and one thing for sure. nobody gives a fuck about fundamentals, investors will buy something that they can sell for a higher price and that's all about it. look at all the shit coins in the market, billions of $ are put in when nobody believes in any of those projects, but they buy them to sell them later for a higher price. so regardless of how bad fundamentals are, btc is going up so that it could be dumped again. rinse and repeat.

It's purely speculation of course, but it could very well be institutions messing up the market behind the scenes. I really expected the situation to be different this time, because the fundamentals have improved significantly, but the users (i.e. get rich quick noobs) here are exactly the same as how they were back in 2013/2014/2015. It's almost like a routine market shake-out.

I didn't expect it to be this similar, but at least I managed to pick up the valuable inputs from the current bear market which I can have work in my advantage after the next bull run. It's all about learning from our mistakes and to not underestimate the market. I got a bit too comfortable with the $6000 level, and I'm sure many more people have.

Definitely, most people in fact. I was always open to another leg down, but as a long term believer I'm always trying to hedge against the possibility that the next bubble starts developing. In 2015, it took me a long time to break out of the bearish mindset and stop shorting the market, and that's unfortunately kept me sort of biased to the upside during this bear market. I'm always afraid to get too bearish on Bitcoin.

this is very true , most traders were so comfortable with the 5.8k to 6k  level, i was one of them, i had bunch of buy orders on that levels, and it paid out throughout the whole of 2018 , except for the last test, where i did lose quite a good amount, but the best part about TA is that the chart sometimes gives you a clear sign saying SELL the shit and get out.

i made this warning topic here after the break of the support > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

many people mock my TA's or in fact TA in general, and keep living under the illusion of "whales control the market" while that could be true, but small fish like us can make use of charts. i sold everything including ALTs when btc broke that support which was about 5600$. if i was to re-buy now, i will have almost doubled my BTC holding.

as we can not be sure of where exactly the bottom may be, i personally started loading BTC with more buying orders all the way down to 2.5k but should that level break i will short and wait for the next support at 1800$, if it fails, short and wait for 1100$. if you are not protecting your investments with a SL behind major supports then you are simply taking a one way ticket to rekt city.

I suggest to everybody to start learning TA, i see many people now calling for 1k and selling at this level which is very stupid, noobs always sell at the very wrong time, even if the price is going to 1k it is very wrong to sell now while we are just above this major support.

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

What do you mean by more adoption? people are fleeing in droves, have been for months. How is that more adoption than last Dec when people were coming aboard in droves?
And wtf do you mean nobody cares about fundamentals? for one, that isn't true. And for another, anyone looking to make money sure as fuck isn't going to stick it in the sinking rat ship of cryptocurrencies.
Wise ass.

coins are being distributed---that doesn't mean users are disappearing. on the contrary: according to a recent study, cryptocurrency users doubled this year in spite of the crash (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/ranks-of-crypto-users-swelled-in-2018-even-as-bitcoin-tumbled).


its true that fundamentals aren't particularly important for price---price can go irrationally far in either direction regardless of fundamentals. that's just markets for ya. bitcoin in particular is hyper speculative because of its extremely scarce supply and lack of liquidity vs growing adoption. what matters most for price is sentiment, hype, and speculation about the future. scaling limitations are way down on the list---the typical investor doesn't know or care about them.

people were talking down the fundamentals and scaling weaknesses like you since before the 2013 bubble too. then bears employed the same arguments in 2016 and 2017 because fees were rising so much, but we bubbled again anyway. nobody cares about slow confirmation times and high fees when they think they can 10x or 100x their investments.

thanks for explaining to him , i think people do not understand that adoption and price are not entirety related or attached to one another. what WinslowIII is also misunderstanding that just because price is going down it means adoption is decreasing. I am not very fluent in English but i do think his understanding of "adoption" is not right.

plus, I do not understand why is he mad at me  ;D ? he could be losing money , might have bought btc for 15k and still hodling ! but this is not my mistake ! i am here trying to help for absolutely FREE of charge, if it is so hard for you to say THANK YOU then at least do not be rude.

Good luck

bitcoin prices will probably fall back and going to the cheapest price again because it is no confidence in the bitcoin again even it could be proved from its buyers and demand declined.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

Don't underestimate how bad news, regardless of how irrelevant you think it is, can push this market further down. Institutions entering is what the aforementioned entities are waiting for.

That's what everyone said about ETFs, but the market stopped caring about them too. The market hardly reacted to the last couple announcements. We actually bounced for a couple days after the last SolidX delay this month.

Bakkt not going live doesn't mean that either. The only people depending on institutional money entering the market because of Bakkt are silly retail bagholders. The launch of Bakkt never guaranteed institutional interest to begin with. To hear asset management companies tell it, institutions aren't really interested in Bitcoin, period. The launch of Bakkt isn't going to create demand out of nowhere.

This is a bear market, so if the market is about to dump anyway, then sure, the Bakkt news will look important. People put way too much emphasis on news though. Bad news isn't the reason the price dumped 50% over the past month.

I do not understand why people give so much value to ETFs, people are starting to think that ETFs are the only way for crypto to survive which is very wrong.
i think this concept comes from people who live in the united states, as many think the whole world revolves around the US which is very wrong, i am not saying Bakkt will have 0 effect on price, but it will not be as big as most people think it will, if there is a bullish sentiment in the trend it will help increase it and that's all about it, there is no way on earth the Bakkt will change a whole bear market to a bull market. when btc surged from 3 digits to 20k it did not give a fuck about no ETFs what so ever. investors all over the globe who probably don't even know what ETF or SEC is will jump in when the time comes and price will go up despite Bakkt launching next year or not.

Nice chart revealed the position of the market after putting the historical data into consideration.  The bottom is really near and any pull back from the current level may lead to the bottom.  However,  the market is highly unpredictable and what we may think as the bottom may not be the bottom.

Everyone would be happy if that happened, but unfortunately the support prices can change over time, and in such a volatile market as cryptocurrency, it's very easy.

in this thread > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883 

i keep track on smaller time frames , i pointed out an important breakout of the falling wedge, and we did successfully break out and followed up with a nice mini rally.

we are not at a very important resistance level, i closed my long position , waiting for the current 4h to close, if we close above the 3600, we could see another nice rally to 4 to 4.4k.

Well I think if bitcoin will touch a bottom it will be alright although its hurt see like that all are suffering because of losing their investment.  I'm still believe that bottom is not forever it move up again and we will that bitcoin go higher price again. That's life we need to experience the ups and downs but dont forget to be positive and believe that everything will be alright again.

Thats been said by a few now and its entirely simple.    The clearest notes wins the attention of the most ears.   Its very probable as a bounce area and then we have to speculate on the fight that ensues between bears and bulls around this area.


Short term no doubt its bullish but on daily its buried by an avalanche till it can melt that weight overhead.

https://i.imgur.com/QX9jXKz.png

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive. personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?  even if they are small positions its all going to add up as scarce as the float of bitcoin is. Many hedge funds/institutions dont get out of bed for deals less than $20 million. Even if they only allocate 1/2 of 1 % of some other miniscule amount of $$,  at the least to bitcoin or some kind of position. I can see $20 million dollar bitcoin buys. I would be in before bakkt goes live.

i think that's because we're in a bear market. no amount of good news or services/infrastructure coming online can turn around a bear market. the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.


why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Cant state both as true really, in 2017 the news didnt especially impede progress either.  In September 2017 China the source of most BTC use blocked most of crypto from being used.    A large part of BTC sucess was the fact China uses capital controls against its citizens which means they do not have access to dollars or many services the majority of the world takes for granted.   Venezuela would be another example where people cannot act freely.
So banning BTC in September was a big deal but the price then was only about 3000 and it went onto much greater heights.   

If you want to compare it to now and state it as reverse, nothing matters then fair enough.

I'd rather recall that area as an important area with its support and resistance to compare now.    But news and price now will vary from the past.    I'm interested to hear if BTC is still growing especially in its population not so much the various banks really, only if people are finding it useful.  Bakkt could be part of that

https://i.imgur.com/PFkt4Sm.png

you're making my point for me. the premise is that "bad news doesn't matter in a bull market and good news doesn't matter in a bear market".

2017 was the epitome of a bull market. so obviously bad news didn't matter. think about the first winklevoss ETF rejection (which triggered the altcoin bubble) or the btc-e seizure or the china exchange bans. the market kept making new highs.

then look at the 2018 bear market. all the interest from asset management firms and investment banks in bitcoin trading instruments, the announcement of imminent regulated physically settled futures (bakkt), all sorts of progress with LN development. the market didn't care: sell everything.

Geroge soros taking a position bill gates or a drunkenmiller or anyone of that stature can turn this bear market around on a dime. Everyone is forgetting this is going to be legit by institutional standards. All the other companies means nothing gemini coinbase custodial is 2nd rate. That is like comparing a company listed on the nasdaq with the pink sheets.Also up until now what is the largest amount of money anyone has ever heard of buying bitcoin? Probably tim drapers buys of the us marshall auction. Well there are going to be multiple buys like this every day. Everyone is fooling themselves that this isnt going to be a very big deal. This is actual delivery of said bitcoin no cash settlements and it will also be all public. No behind the scenes otc transactions which was all hearsay.
Go on yahoo finance and find a garbage stock and look up institutional holders of it. Pretty much every garbage stock has some holders like goldman, city, mutual funds etc no matter how much of a garbage company institutions/funds take positions. Bitcoin is way better everyone will take a position.

I think the next logical step for bitcoin going to the moon is the scarcity play. I think bakkt ans institutions will take a shit ton of coins off the open market for a long time. Then when fidelity launches that opens a slew of self directed iras. Rhat money has been inaccessible til now. I imagine there will be thousands of people buying just one coin in their ira fir future retirement. I know once i can use those funds i am going to be buying some coins in it. Just my 2c.

bitcoiners seem to have a twisted sense of how wall street works. trading institutions front run markets---they don't wait until "the perfect derivative" comes along so they can buy the top after the rest of the market. they also spin off subsidiary companies to avoid disclosing investments.

again, there are CFTC-regulated futures markets. there are CFTC-regulated swap execution facilities. go home with the bullshit about pink sheets. even if you think institutions haven't devised custody solutions (which is another baseless assumption bitcoiners make), they don't actually need them to get massive exposure to this market.

but you think everyone's waiting for bakkt to launch.....right. wall street is just patiently waiting to pump bitcoin for us too. ;)

300 days sideways seems to long to me.  I believe bull run will start closer to halving this time as it did in 2015. Simply because everyone will try to be ahead of the rest.

https://i.imgur.com/QuJ9miF.jpg


we broke first resistance, should now act as our support , watching for the next Resistance levels. a break out below the current support will be bad for btc.

Apparently this chart could be quite true. Right now price started to get back up a bit, of course it doesn't mean the price will go up from here and there is still a chance that we can see even lower bottom since we are not clear out of the water like we are suddenly 10 thousand dollars but honestly seeing bitcoin increasing and breaking some points is great to know, we didn't think we could break 3800 today when the day started but we have seen above that price already.

So all in all, even tough the chart could still be wrong, there is a potential that it could be right as well. I doubt we will see 2800 levels anytime soon and I hope we can move beyond 4 thousand dollars and more in the upcoming future but we should still be a bit careful about our investments since anything could happen anytime.

I think that 1 and 2 are all very good points. Not sure about 3 though.

It's very likely that we're very close to the bottom right now. I don't think that we have hit bottom yet, even though prices seem to be rebounding at the moment. All I'm saying is that prices probably will not collapse down too much at this point, but rather move sideways with occasional dips.

With the percentage loss from the all time high, I seriously can't see prices going down to $1k or below like others predict simply because historic bear market bottoms have been around 15% of ATH value, and that there will be a ton of demand for BTC if it ever did drop below $3k in my opinion. The fundamentals of bitcoin has not changed, and there's still a lot of people investing for the long term. In my opinion, right now, in this zone between $3-4k is the perfect time to buy in cheap coins if you are able to hold it for the long run.