Bitcoin Forum

   https://i.imgur.com/eO9vBIp.jpg



it is all in the picture, every time the red cloud showed up on the weekly chart, it marked the lowest price and the end of a bear market.

happened in 2012 >2015 and could possibly repeat again this time.  ::) ::) ::)


if history is to repeat itself, then expect around 300 days of sideways market between 3 and 6k, end of 2019 will be the beginning of the new bull run. mid to end 2020 we hit a new ATH.

maybe !  ;D


** sorry forgot to mention that if we close below this current support then bulls are doomed and going straight to rekt city. i highlighted on one of my comments how crucial this support is on a monthly scale, it does not matter if we had a wick down to 2.5 what so ever, but going below 2900 and not going back up straight away is very likely a 3 digits bitcoin again. as the next major supports sits between 900-1100$

** also I do not advice anyone to get married to one direction of the chart, just because I think this is the bottom it does not mean if it doesn't hold I will HODL my btc till they drop to 1k or even 1.8k, i will short to re-buy cheaper. as goes the other way around, i will be selling the moment i see 4500 all the way to 5500 as we approaching strong resistance.

this is not a financial advice what so ever. do your own research , trade smart .

What the hell is an ichimoku cloud and why does it matter?
In the chart,the "cloud" appears 2 times when the bitcoin price is going up(2012-2013 and 2015-2016).
The last appearance is in the current bear market.That doesn't prove anything.

I see people nowadays always likes to draw on chart and if they saw some "formation" , THAT'S IT!

Thanks for the bearish market this year. Without it, their drawing skills will not be enhanced. /lol/

Anyways that's your speculation. I don't really depend on "some" indicators even how well it was backed up it is if we have to applied it on bitcoin price movement.

Goodluck everyone.

Ok I will have to be candid with you peeps...

Every time I feel a tingling sensation in the rear, I will tilt to one side (usually to the left) and let it go.

The air that escaped became one of the most poisonous and toxic gas known to human, and all living things that has legs in close proximity are advised to leave the area immediately. It may sometimes trigger a slight giggle from me.

The formation of the said gas is cloud-like, and it may or may not be ichimoku cloud, but its definitely an itchy stinking cloud!
 

First of all, we are still way below the (red) Ichimoku cloud. That means we are still in bearish territory. It could still go up or down, but the overall bearish trend is there.

The necessary condition for a bullish run is

1. a TK cross (blue line above the red line), which is not about to happen,
2. the price to go above the cloud, which is also not happening any time soon.

In addition, the cloud is becoming thicker, which could mean sideway action for longer periods of time.

It's a technical indicator. I don't use it myself, but I know many traders that swear by it. Here's a brief summary (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud):



The daily cloud flipped bearish shortly after the 2011 crash ended and shortly before the 2014 crash ended. The OP is suggesting the bear market may be ending because it's happening again. We obviously won't know until many months have gone by (same as 2012 and 2015), but it's possible.

Well so far so good on that prediction. $4000 was just broken a short while ago. Still it's going to be a long way until bitcoin is clear of any potential new lows in this market. We saw how quickly the price fell from $6000 when it eventually did fall. Let's hope the cloud is right.

Just recently, Mark Dow, a trader and economist who worked at the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, has closed his short position on Bitcoin (https://coincodex.com/crypto/bitcoin/)!

https://coincodex.com/article/2779/mark-dow-a-trader-who-shorted-the-bitcoin-top-has-closed-his-position/

Yes it's good to see the market right now from last week, BTC is going great and it needs to be continued for a while . Something is better than nothing I was likely to sell my coins after a long wait but I have changed my mind now to hodl for few more days.

Also I see people like to use charts these days but you are hilarious lol, is bitcoin's price movement begining of the new era of great painters/drawers? lol
OP I agree with you that we will see high rise in 2019 and new most time high in 2020 but have different opinion. Bitcoin is so unpredictable, we can't only think with charts. But let's think about mining too, this plays a huge role. One fact is that after halving, people almost believe price will rise and have very positive imaginations on it + miners really need high price. In 2020 we will got as much rise (if not more) as we got last year.

I agree with his assessment, we will never see bitcoin under $3000 again.  There are just too many financial institutions that are entering the crypto space.  Once prices get this low people get greedy because they can easily 5x their money from these price points by simply holding.  This will likely be the last chance you have to get very rich off crypto with little work.

We will see sub-$3,000 bitcoins. There's really no question about it. We'll see sub-$1,000 bitcoins eventually, because bitcoin is on a long term down trend to zero, just look at the charts and read the sources.

While the patterns seem to indicate a sign of growth, I'm still not buying it, or at least I'm not convinced that we're already out of the bear market. It needs more than just breaking the current resistance IMO, though there had been a lot of shorts that had been closed in the past 2 days of trading. Even then I'm still expecting yet another crash before a sideways movement for the rest of 2019, with a potential bull run starting by 2020, and until then these picture are just projections and assumptions.

Like ever in history ? Or for now ? Ichimoku can't show you what the price will be in 2030 or something, of course can't even in 2019 properly but I just wanted to give an exaggerated example. This means 3100 can't be achieved these days, probably won't go down that much, however if the price goes up a bit and than another whale who bought a lot during the sub 4000 levels could potentially sell all of their coins all at once (again) and create a bear run that will continue with the panic sellers doing their thing and we can be under 3100 once again.

Ichimoku is here for the short term possibilities, but when you put in extra unexpected things into play there is nothing that can keep bitcoin over 3100 (technically speaking). That being said, I still think bitcoin can go back to 6500 thousand dollar levels without a problem.

 Most people who troll TA's are the moon boys who HODLED btc from 19k and probably sold at 3k.  this is normal in every market for someone to make money a noob on the other side of the exchange has to lose it.

the same people who called for 100k the beggining of the year, are now calling for 0 on bitcoin. it's funny how many people including some early adopters did not bother spend sometime learning to read charts. millions of people make living by doing so, billions of dollars are being made on BTC chart and the noobs will still say TA is pure bullshit. it's funny but i could care less  ;D


if you know how to do TA then you would have probably sold at 5700$ >

and again if you looked at the chart you would re-buy at  around 3220$



 
and once we broke the 3700 yesterday you would entered in more buying positions. and waiting for  4500$ to take partial profit and most likely sell everything and short everything if the price goes to 5500$.

there are TONS of trades that can be made, my portfolio BTC wise had almost 70% increase from the last fall of the large triangle . and i am not even a professional , i know scalpers who trade on the 1 and 5 mins chart who are up at least 300%.

and you still get the Moon boys who now are the same noobs calling for infinity to the downside.

I am not betting the house that this is the bottom, but the signs are there, if it is the bottom i'l be happy, if it's not then the charts will show it and i will short the hell out of it and still make profit while you can sit there with your crystal ball and wait for BTC to go wherever you wish to see it.

I post my TA's to people who know what it is and they like it and benefit from it. if you are so mad because you hodled btc for so long and sold at 3k and got rekt both ways then these posts should be the least of your concern. ::)



I do not think you even looked at the chart. whenever the red cloud appeared it marked the lowest price. while it is true that as long as we are below the cloud the overall trend is still bearish but if you look closely then you will understand that the the lowest weekly candle appeared right after the cloud was showing.

if the picture is not clear enough then you can use the BLX chart on TV which has a 7 years worth of data and zoom in to every lowest weekly candle , draw the vertical line and it will perfectly line up with the beginning of the cloud.

indeed i do not give much weight to Ichimoku cloud , but it had to match more important factors such as a major support area plus 50 moving average on the monthly chart as well as the weekly 200  MA all these SMAs were never broken below from the begging of btc.

you can look at it here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084972.msg48670288#msg48670288


-----------------------------

I do not like to make long term analysis, i stick to present and follow the chart as it goes regardless, but this could be helpful for the noobs who were selling at 3k.

I do not understand why would someone hodl all the way fro 10k or 15k and sell now , even if 3k was not the bottom, then it can't be too far. it would be either 1800 or worst case scenario at 1100 which marks the last ATH of 2013 and probably is the strongest support of BTC history.

even assuming we were to fall to sub 1000$ and you are not a day trader, does it really make sense to sell at 3k? ofcoz not.

Sure Ichimoku is a somewhat good indicator, but indicators go wrong all the time. This has been tried extensively in other currency pairs and its not even that reliable these days

Dont rely on just one view, we saw this with the 6000 support area.   It was called time by a few different views but took some time to develop into a negative scenario.   The indicators etc werent wrong exactly but confirmation is usually needed for a position to progress.
Cloud might be right but I want to see it across a few perspectives to be convinced and I imagine the market does check this level

My view of current price action is this is an area the market slides into previous support and so could meet selling, blue line here is the 50 day.   My more medium term guess was more bullish at the 6000 area but not sure we go right there

https://i.imgur.com/23om2Lo.png

Makes sense.

Recovery will be slow and painful.

No, the picture is clear enough and I get what you are saying. But just because the lowest price happened two times in the past at that particular configuration, it doesn't mean it will happen again.

Or let me put it this way: that's not how the Ichimoku system works. I can show you countless examples of other currencies where the appearance of the red cloud above the price meant a prolonged downtrend.


Yes I agree, Ichimoku has its moments, but no indicator is perfect if used alone.

i gave you the link to where i used more important types of indication, i should have posted in the OP but again indeed relying on only this to be 100% is dumb, but i am a big believer in fractals when it comes to bitcoin, even in small time frames , you can find a dozen of fractals that strangely keep on repeating for no technical reason on the chart. this could be the act of bots or god knows what.

as far as how the ichimoku works, i know exactly how it does, as far as am concern the red cloud represents tremendous resistance ahead which is obvious, every previous support from ATH is now adding to the cloud, the ticker it is the harder to break. but being under the cloud does not mean an extended or never ending bear market.

there are a dozen of reasons on why this could be the bottom or at least something that is very close

1- Major support area that held as both support and resistance for about 100 days in 2017.
2- touching the 200 weekly MA which BTC never closed below
3- touching the 50 monthly MA which not a single monthly candle closed below it
4- 85% drop from ATH which almost exactly the same drop we had in 2014
5- it is a very strong support physiologically even or those who don't do TA 
6- it is probably the last wall the bulls have to defend before going 1100 as there is latterly no major support below this
7- the RSI on the monthly is sitting at 44 which is nearly the exact bottom of  2014 and the RSI is over sold on the weekly too

TA wise, this level is amazingly strong and should we have a monthly close below the 2700-3000 area then it will be a very easy and fast trip to 900-1100 without any doubts.


as  far as the trading plan goes for the couple next months

1- buy the 3k zone , sell the 5-6k
2- sell the close below 3k buy the close above 6k.

as for people shorting at 3k before we break it , i have nothing to say to them except "Good fucking luck" you gonna need it.

Yes, that was my point. I have no argument with the rest of your analysis. I'm also tired of this bear market and I wish bitcoin were shooting up through the cloud as soon as possible. But I'm also trying to be as objective as possible.

No it doesn't. Let's hope it will reverse soon.

It has to be. I'm a big believer in max pain theory (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp), the idea that markets tend to go where they'll cause the most pain for the most people. It's the nature of short squeezes and long squeezes.

There's no way the bulls can just get bailed out with immediate recovery and bull run. That's way too easy. The newbies who still believe that's possible are going to be forced to sell near the bottom repeatedly as the market whipsaws and squeezes both weak hands and late shorters.

I'm not cheering because of how shit this market looks now, but because of how people who shouldn't be here are being shaken out. It also stimulates people to focus on the technical side of Bitcoin now the market isn't pumping, which is another benefit of a bear market. People come to sense now, which in my opinion is very important because it results in appreciation for what Bitcoin fundamentally stands for instead of its parabolic increases.

The main difference is that back in the 2014/2015 bear market the fundamentals were negligible because of how there wasn't much to focus on. That's different now. We're seeing actual progress which we could only dream of back then. I'm happy.

Is it called a cloud chart because you look at it and see anything you want to see! The bear market is not completely over, every time there is a flash of green it comes crashing down again. The red days will be here soon

yes I agree with you, 100% , my chart is pure bullshit drawing based on nothing but wishful thinking, so can you post a picture of the crystal ball that told you the bear market is not completely over?

I have no problem with having a healthy discussion based on TA as this is a TA thread where random thoughts and prediction are OFF-TOPIC.

you can't sell btc at 3k and then troll everyone who says btc is going up  ;D, if you have a chart , post away. if not then put me on ignore list and move on with your life.

thanks

No one can say 100% that 3100$ is the last cheapest price and never again bitcoin will go much lower than that, but as we see now bitcoin is over 4100$ and this can only be a sign before bull run start, anyway i will hold until i will see at least 30,000$ for 1BTC

I would strongly suggest not to sell any long term holdings at this point. The price as this suggests is not likely to hit lower than $3100. With a past ATH of $20000 there's much more to lose at this point by selling than there is to gain.

agreed , but you realize that someone has to sell for someone else to buy ? why do you think the rich get richer and whales get bigger while average joe enters the market and end up broke ? because they wait too long to buy and when they do, price starts to crash, and again they make the same mistake by waiting so long and then sell and over sold market at the very wrong time.

one does not really need to be a pro trader to understand that buying at 3k or 4k for the long term is a golden chance given the risk/reward ratio. but to someone who day trade, and ready to change their mind as the market does, it is okay to sell at any point because you will buy again soon. but for a hodler or a very long term trader, you can't sell the market after 85% crash, it is just stupid.

Right, I'm aware of that. Just trying to spare this one poor soul from making the mistake that many others will make or have already made. I've learned a lot myself through the last bull run and now in this bearish market but the real fundamentals should be fairly easy for most people to grasp. I think the biggest mistake is most people invest too much without really knowing what they're investing in. That mistake leads to many more mistakes.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5088650.0

this is an update, a combined analysis on bitcoin bottom.

I would like to believe that the technical analysis always works. I know that it is very useful in short periods of time - a few hours, a maximum of a few days. Unfortunately, long cycles on the cryptocurrency market are different from the behavior in large markets, where technical analysis works. I hope that when the crypto market cap grows a dozen or so times it will be a useful instrument for longer periods of time.

I don't think this is a problem for Bitcoin and the larger coins. There is sufficient market liquidity such that all classical TA applies to Bitcoin just as it does to stock indices or commodities.

The long term is actually much easier to analyze than shorter term (day trading) time frames. Over short periods, the noise-to-signal ratio is very high. I find that signals based on 1-day or 1-week candlesticks are very reliable in Bitcoin.

Also, TA will never always work. It's not a crystal ball. It helps you know when reversals are occurring, when to cut losses, when trends are being established, etc. but it's inherently about hedging risks and probabilities. There is no 100% successful method.

I agree with what you are saying but with the addition that if for example TA works 80% of the times in other markets like stocks market then it means TA only works 50% in bitcoin market because of the size of the market and the severity of the manipulation that exists here.
here I chose 80 and 50 numbers arbitrarily but the point is that effectiveness of TA is reduced in bitcoin market to a point where most of the times it raises the question of why bother with it.

I second to this. TA's role is just to guide us along the trading journey (just like what you have mentioned above). We know how volatile the market is and we dont have the definite idea on what or how the fellow traders do their trading. This is also the reason why there is market manipulation, to minimize the risk of lossing the whales investment.

I too believe that this could be the lowest for the next couple of years if not for permanent it may be. But those who were smart people had being saying that keep on buying on the dips as market will eventually rise and will give you returns on your investment. Those who had invested today would have made money and rest would have lost this opportunity.

Theres nothing wrong in believing but you must also be aware that not all news are legit .  we are on a new world where internet and being online can now be easily accesible in which anyone can do whatever they want no matter it is for fun or for destroying others .

And if the rumors were real , then why i still see that btc price is going down ? Hmmm ... 

Oh well   . btc can surely recover in the future no matter how hard it falls  .  so lets not worry too much in regard with price but instead let us hoard and accumulate more   .

if TA does not work, then could please kindly tell us what does ? what do you place your entries and exists on?

But in the future it will decrease lower for sure. But right now we need to focus to up the value of the bitcoin no negtive will be entertain for this now only positive for the price of the bitcoin. I hope price will really increase not down.

He didn't say it doesn't work, he just referred to the fact that there isn't always a point in trying to bet on a certain market movement, which makes sense, especially after how the $5800 level was broken and the market really needed to find a point to calm down at, which it seems to have, for now.

Based on his view on TA he is not all that active with trading, so it's likely based on long term fundamentals rather than short term bets on the direction of the market.

Admittedly, regardless of it being a guess, it's always better to trade based on an educated guess rather than a blind guess like most of the people here do. I think it's safe to say that TA, especially in the last year or so, has turned into a meme sort of thingy due to all the clowns on social media selling signals and memberships.

Which is completely oppisite to the thread title but with no input as to why you think that lol

The reason more simply put then this magic cloud stuff is moving averages and because its easily understood this might make it a similar correlating strong factor behind this area being the very lowest.

I had never considered this but the moving 200 week average is at these prices apparently.   I never consider that but true enough look back and this MA has marked near bottom pricing over the long term average trend which overall has been up.

Doesnt mean it has to be always correct, just to date its been that way and its a very easy thing to just mention an average which allows many participants in observation of that rise over time

yeah, masterluc and some others are pointing to the 200 MA as a bottoming factor. the thing about that is, we spiked below it twice in 2015 when the market was capitulating. we should probably still be prepared for that.

btw, ichimoku is based on moving averages. it just compares multiple periods instead of a single lookback. you have your fast MA and your slow MA (crosses result in a bullish vs bearish cloud) and S/R based on a lagging span. it's useful for quickly getting a holistic view of things.

It's a good idea to include the time frame on the chart that you shared, or better if you give a direct chart link to trading view.

Maybe what you analyze can indeed be sideways in a few months, for the lowest price "tf gives different results.

it's in the first line "weekly chart". thanks

I think that this could be the bottom out price available for this year and might not return for long time so people who even have 100$ should invest in this market because that could really give multiple times return in this year if you stay invested with top coins .

I think most would agree that $3k is the current bottom.

The problem is that ichimoku only deals with the stats and charts and so forth we have, it can give you the result as long as you provide it with data. All the above, there are data that we do not posses in chart shape which also affects the price considerably.

I expected this withdrawal from contention of the SEC deal would bring the price down a lot but apparently some people heard about it earlier and managed to get out a lot faster and dropped the price already. There are some "news" that we hear all the time that affects the price which ichimoku can not really show. What if a whale comes up and sells 50 thousand bitcoins all at once tomorrow, what will happen to price ?

It will bottom really hard, probably close to 1000 dollar levels, can ichimoku predict that? No. Hence use this method to understand what market is "supposed to" do but also be careful.

"Current bottom".....you mean just a local bottom before we head lower? Or that $3K is the bottom of the whole bear market?

If most people really agree on the bottom (like they did at $6K), we're probably heading lower. It's very rare for markets to do exactly what everyone expects. When real bottoms are made, everyone is usually in disbelief and expects lower.

Currently the general sentiment amongst people seem to be that they do expect the price to at least test the $3000 mark. Considering how much we went down already, that would be a welcome change in direction.

$6000 was all about a bull run before the end of the year, and of course with people like Tom Lee speculating about $20k to happen you know where things will likely go. I was literally waiting for it to happen but hoped to be wrong.

We haven't broken through any previous lower high in the last 13 months, so we'll see when the market finally turns bullish, but I remain conservative. Want to see $5k, preferably $6k to be bullish again.

If the news was sold in advance, it was very likely done during the brutal 50% selloff last year.

I don't think any whale is stupid enough to do that. No exchange is able to withstand that level of selling. I'm sure that in case a whale with that many coins is planning to unload his coins, it is either done through the OTC market where there are enough buyers ready to empty his bags, or that the whale uses various exchanges to sell these coins in batches of 500-1000BTC and have the process of selling take weeks or even months.

i hate to say it, but those sound like great selling opportunities. being able to sell $6k again sounds fantastic, and i guarantee you i wouldn't be the only one doing so. you can't have a 9-month support (at $6k) fail, see the price chopped in half, and then immediately retake old support. that old support is now resistance---it's gonna need to be tested a couple times (probably over the better part of a year) before it breaks again.

If the price of bitcoin is going down to zero then the entire market will end up in zero and there is no doubt about it, it is a billion dollar market and what makes you think that it will eventually end up in zero, is there any theory behind it or have you found out any technical glitch that would take bitcoin to zero. :P

It is not about a bunch of people agreeing about the bottom, if you do the technical analysis you can figure out the support level and resistance level and come to an conclusion on how the market will perform on either sides, if the market gets weaker the price will go down $3k and we will check the new support level and it goes like that. It is just an analysis to have an idea on how the market will perform in both directions, if the resistance is breached then we will have a good movement upward till the next resistance level is reached and so is the case with support levels.

It has been almost half a year since i posted this , 3 days after that I posted another one ( Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5088650.0) )

We have gone too far , price is 150% up from bottom ( which i did not expect to happen this fast at all), but looking back in time, I know that it must have not been too easy to have the guts to stand against a strong down trend, or more like a water fall.

Hats off to everyone who had the courage and believed in TA enough to enter at those prices which we may very likely never see again.

I made the same action buying at the dip, but have not seen this thread before, thanks for sharing this, I'll take a look at your new thread.

Good luck!

edit - Had check the link,  I thought it was a new one.. do you have a new TA? Like the latest one?

This thread was clutch, It was part of the reason why I kept accumulating, this truly was the first sign that we had bottomed.

Bitcoin don't always follow what we think will happen. I always tell my friends that "the market has it own mind and you have to follow the market's mind in other to make profits and not get burn out"! Some of us has be following Bitcoin pricing for long and without using technicals or fundamentals indicators we can predict to some extent were the market is heading to and if we see a surprise move we should take it as normal things in the crypto currency market. Remember that many people are referring to bitcoin as a speculative market and speculation is what drive bitcoin market more than any technical or fundamental indicator.

This is off-topic, go start your own thread in Reputation or directly PM theymos, not sure how relevant is it to discuss the flag system in a technical analysis topic ! ::)


Not true, TA does work most of the time, just because you don't understand it does not mean it does not work, how do you think 3k was the bottom just randomly everyone decided to buy btc for 3k and not to sell it cheaper? there were many TA signals that we have bottomed and we actually did, TA is a combination of numbers and human psychology , if understood and used perfectly can most of the time keep you on the winning side.

Bro, nice chart but i think you posted this on the 20th december. I called the bottom of btc 3286 usd (bitfinex bottom was 3216) on the 7th of december 2018. Anyone who wants to see the prediction, i can give a link to the public forum and my private group.

But you were close enough and you have a very interesting approach. I like it :) Are you interested to post in my group?

I didnt spot any regular trend until Feb and even then I'm doubting it will turn around properly like it has done.   I drew the chart right though in showing the trend of rising lows regularly.
   I'm glad I gave this guy merit, no idea why it would be evidence in anything negative when its a good topic in the right place, etc.     Some people are absolutely sound in their speculation and stating the current situations factors at least price wise, fundamentals is another forum section perhaps

TA is probability to me, its not stating certainties and thats why people hate it because they want to slam their fist on the table and declare this is the bottom price and no sell order shall pass.   Meanwhile reality, anything can happen and we merely can know what is most probable and that is profitable observation imo

yes, it's all about probability, nothing is 100% certain. But if you follow some rules you will gain in the longterm. Most of predictions will come true, if you follow as many rules as possible. Those rules gave me high probability bottom on the 7th of december at 3200 usd. It gave me 12.000 btc local top 2 days ago. It gave me more buying btc at 8900-ish area. It gave me shorting for the most of 2018 year. So, jf you manage all the rules and risk management together with TA, you'll be fine. I have those predictions made publicly if someone doubt this.

true, first we predicted only to 6000, not 5000 usd. But after 6000 didn't hold we shorted to 3280 usd. I knew we won't go lower than 3100 and i wrote those resons on the 7th of december.