Most people who troll TA's are the moon boys who HODLED btc from 19k and probably sold at 3k. this is normal in every market for someone to make money a noob on the other side of the exchange has to lose it.
the same people who called for 100k the beggining of the year, are now calling for 0 on bitcoin. it's funny how many people including some early adopters did not bother spend sometime learning to read charts. millions of people make living by doing so, billions of dollars are being made on BTC chart and the noobs will still say TA is pure bullshit. it's funny but i could care less
if you know how to do TA then you would have probably sold at 5700$ >
A few days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.
this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from 5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.
I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.
The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.
breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.
this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.
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From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.
we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.
we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.
no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.
being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.
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24/11/2018 9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.
currently btc is trading at 3940$ on binance .
we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.
my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ . i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.
as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for
BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.
and again if you looked at the chart you would re-buy at around 3220$
waiting for a break out.
nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.
and once we broke the 3700 yesterday you would entered in more buying positions. and waiting for 4500$ to take partial profit and most likely sell everything and short everything if the price goes to 5500$.
there are TONS of trades that can be made, my portfolio BTC wise had almost 70% increase from the last fall of the large triangle . and i am not even a professional , i know scalpers who trade on the 1 and 5 mins chart who are up at least 300%.
and you still get the Moon boys who now are the same noobs calling for infinity to the downside.
I am not betting the house that this is the bottom, but the signs are there, if it is the bottom i'l be happy, if it's not then the charts will show it and i will short the hell out of it and still make profit while you can sit there with your crystal ball and wait for BTC to go wherever you wish to see it.
I post my TA's to people who know what it is and they like it and benefit from it. if you are so mad because you hodled btc for so long and sold at 3k and got rekt both ways then these posts should be the least of your concern.
First of all, we are still way below the (red) Ichimoku cloud. That means we are still in bearish territory. It could still go up or down, but the overall bearish trend is there.
The necessary condition for a bullish run is
1. a TK cross (blue line above the red line), which is not about to happen,
2. the price to go above the cloud, which is also not happening any time soon.
In addition, the cloud is becoming thicker, which could mean sideway action for longer periods of time.
I do not think you even looked at the chart. whenever the red cloud appeared it marked the lowest price. while it is true that as long as we are below the cloud the overall trend is still bearish but if you look closely then you will understand that the the lowest weekly candle appeared right after the cloud was showing.
if the picture is not clear enough then you can use the BLX chart on TV which has a 7 years worth of data and zoom in to every lowest weekly candle , draw the vertical line and it will perfectly line up with the beginning of the cloud.
indeed i do not give much weight to Ichimoku cloud , but it had to match more important factors such as a major support area plus 50 moving average on the monthly chart as well as the weekly 200 MA all these SMAs were never broken below from the begging of btc.
you can look at it here >
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084972.msg48670288#msg48670288-----------------------------
I do not like to make long term analysis, i stick to present and follow the chart as it goes regardless, but this could be helpful for the noobs who were selling at 3k.
I do not understand why would someone hodl all the way fro 10k or 15k and sell now , even if 3k was not the bottom, then it can't be too far. it would be either 1800 or worst case scenario at 1100 which marks the last ATH of 2013 and probably is the strongest support of BTC history.
even assuming we were to fall to sub 1000$ and you are not a day trader, does it really make sense to sell at 3k? ofcoz not.
