Bitcoin Forum

Venture capitalist Chris Dixon at Andressen Horowitz predicted that a single bitcoin will worth $100k+ in the future. I'm optimist but I think that's is way too much!

Read Full Article: Bitcoin Worth Prediction (http://www.bitcoinvalues.net/silicon-valley-venture-capitalist-predicts-single-bitcoin-worth-100k.html)

It can happen. To predict it just to make a splash is kind of silly and frankly gives ammo to critics that call it a ponzi and other such things.

We could get a currency crisis tomorrow that chases a large number of people into bit coin or some government could outright ban the use or holding of it and the price could plummet. Anything can and will happen.

Are you saying bitcoin is equivalent to gold? Bitcoin is virtual so how would people feel safe in investing if the traditional market crashes or a financial crisis occurs?

I think the nature of bit coin is a built in advantage. You can divide bit coin into smaller denominations while gold would literally have to be cut. A gold or precious metal economy would be a logistical and security nightmare. We have a ways to go technology wise before the protocol could be used on a large scale in a currency crisis but it is all ready an effective store of value.

100k is bearish for the long run, it might even get above a million.

Time will tell ;D

some big guys say that bitcoin will disappear in 10 years, others say that will be 100k. I think both scenarios are plausible

There will be some bifurcation points. One path will lead to disappearing of BTC, other to 100K per 1BTC. These experts only mark possibilities.

With todays technology to support it, bitcoin could possibly be that valuable or somewhat more, it just depends on the speed of adoption. But with better infrastucture to deliver the bitcoin network, it could be so much more. There are already good signs that new technology used for internet infrastructure is becoming more resilient and cheaper to produce and deploy. If that trend continues, and bitcoin/cryptocurrency development continues too, here's what the future reality may be:

• Internet is unimaginably fast, low latency with 100% ubiquitous access (on the ocean, in aircraft, in the wilderness etc)
• Computing devices are powerful, tiny, and are built into clothes and/or our biological tissues, and are powered effortlessly from the environment around us
• Both the computing and networking technology are even cheaper per unit of performance than they are today
• Bitcoin/cryptocurrency evolves to allow faster payment confirmation, smart property, cryptographic contracts, identity etc

If that all sounds 100 years away, think how close we already are to that reality. Satellite constellations to provide internet will be online in the next year or two. Fibre based internet is more common in residential buildings, and the bandwidth and latency performance of the first generation is streets ahead of DSL. Mobile data has had a similar improvement with LTE/4G, and there are more improvements to that technology in the pipeline. Wearable computing devices became a marketplace reality literally this year (google glass, samsung galaxy gear etc). And these devices are continuing that unabating trend of fitting more computing throughput into ever decreasing amounts of space, which has been consistent for over 40 years.

So, given that scenario, and providing we can make informed choices about the devices we choose in this sci-fi future, one bitcoin will definitely be more valuable than 100,000 dollars at 2014 purchasing power. Conservative estimate, 15 years away.

Anything is possible. It could go up to $100 million as well. The thing to think about is that it's deflationary. This means that the value is designed to continue increasing. As more coins are lost, the value of the remaining will theoretically increase. As mining slows down to a crawl, we will have a more stable supply (right now supply increases at a rate of 25 BTC per 10m, or 150 per hour).

Bitcoin is not virtual.

You cannot create it out of thin air. You cannot replace it if the private keys are lost. The blockchain contains all the 21 million coins that can ever exist. no more. no less.

the number of coins available can only GO down (not counting the addition of coins until the year 2140) due to lost private keys.

each bitcoin or fraction of a bitcoin is a real object, digital yes, but REAL. REAL UNIQUE MATH.


The USD/FRN is virtual. It is not backed by anything physical or unique. It can be whipped into existence just because someone deposits cash into a bank account (look up fractional reserve lending). it can be printed in any quantity at any time by the federal reserve. In fact the only difference between USD/FRN's and Monopoly money is that the fed puts serial numbers on their paper.

Technically, wouldn't it fall under this definition? "temporarily simulated or extended by computer software: a virtual disk in RAM; virtual memory on a hard disk." In all reality, if we lose computers we lose Bitcoin. Therefore it's temporary, in the sense that it can disappear in the blink of an eye.

Your post and this thread helped remind me how exciting the Bitcoin project really is.
I felt this way almost every day during portions of 2011, it's nice to be reminded.  :)

as long as at least one copy of the blockchain existed in the world bitcoin would still exist. no bank (federal reserve or otherwise) on this planet has as many backups of their data as the blockchain does.

and no. bitcoins are not temporarily simulated. the math that exists as "physical" ones and zeros that make up a bitcoin on a hard drive exist digitally and can just as easily be printed on paper, etched into concrete, carved into wood, etc...

the point that most people miss is that every single satoshi is unique and irreplaceable and in no way whatsoever by any definition are they "virtual". digital yes (unless you printed them out on paper).

Bitcoin is a DIGITAL currency.

Fiat currency, while printed on paper as well as existing as digital data are "virtual" as they ARE extended by computer software, temporarily simulated, replaceable, infinitely expandable, infinitely replicatible. literally no different than World of Warcraft gold. If Blizzard wanted to release more gold into their economy then all they need to do is enter some new parameters and presto. no different than the federal reserve.

NO ONE, not even Satoshi herself can create more bitcoins.  

Yes, i believe Bitcoin will be worth a $100k. Bitcoin is more than just a ''next-gen'' transactionsystem, ppl tend to forget how valuable that is.

The world is a big place with many different markets, just a fast example; more than 95% are buying there holiday tickets online, when airliners/bookingagents are starting accepting Bitcoin  the price will skyrocket, in the near future airliners will ambrace Bitcoin to.(i hope)

Ore when Wallstreet gets the green light to jump in other countrys will follow.

We havent seen anything from Bitcoin adoption, the real firework are yet to come, just wait a few years till the infrastucture is ready for it. 30.000 ppl working on it, thats a whole f***** army!  :P

Depending on how wide the coins are being spread ,the chances of their value getting higher are really considerable ,it may get over $1000 or even $10 000 in a couple of years but, no one will know because it depends on other things like the re-borne of another Mark Karpeles :p

It's not physical either so what is it?

Don't we all bitcoin owners wish!

Before it reaches $100k, most people would have sold it all. That will just leave a minority group holding lots of bitcoin. Less people use bitcoin to transact, it becomes useless.

Actually, bitcoin will never be 21 millions. Coins have been already lost and many much will be lost. People forget the private keys and good bye to the coins.
On the price target, it's pure speculation. Everything is possible.

True that coins will be lost and have already. But so far just half of the target amount has been mined. With 2-sig wallets the loss risk will be reduced. Even if a lot coins are lost it will not be a problem because the protocol may be changed to allow smaller units than Satoshis. Or there will be a consense after longer time to remine lost coins that ha not been touched over many year (20+).

There have been so many predictions on the end scenarios of Bitcoin that I do not believe in a single one anymore. Compare it to IPV4. Same problems and still after 40 years it is alive and used around the world.

I have a question:  how many Americans have 21 million dollars?

My guess is quite a few.  I think 100K will be easily attainable for bitcoin given time.

Yeah, the thing to think about here is that we are moving (I think) towards referring to coins as "bits." When it really comes down to it, nobody would need to have $100k t0 make Bitcoin worth $100k+. Just like none of us have $1b, yet there are trillions of dollars in USD alone. Each person has PART of what is available. The same goes with Bitcoin.

I agree...because of the lack of trust presently, most people will sell with a quick gain leaving a few investors with the vast!

BitCoin will never probably go that high as it will face competition from newer better altcoins. The total market capitalization of all cryptocoins is expected to increase exponentially but BitCoin's share will gradually decrease.

It depends how the system is implemented, but in many cases the need of two signatures will increase the risk of coins being lost. Since there are two keys, there is twice the risk that one will be lost.

At some point people have to collectively decide what they're going to get behind. You can't operate a very useful economy if it's hopelessly diluted by countless clones.

Why not? Competition is healthy.

Not to mention the majority of coins are still priced based on BTC. As long as this trend keeps going, BTC will always be the main one, and all the clones will always be dependent upon it.

It is healthy but not practical if you're trying to build an operating economy. If it sticks to speculation then that's another matter.

Buying a house with crypto would be a pain up the arse if you had to pay 50% BTC, 30% NXT, 10% Doge and a few other coins because none of their markets were liquid enough for big transactions.

altcoins are way behind

Were are the altcoin ATMs, where can you spend your altcoins?

Nowhere, and you can't

end of story.

Altcoins are just a pump and dump pyramid scheme and they don't serve much other purpose.

If any altcoin actually improves on some aspect of bitcoin, it will be far easier to just change that aspect of the bitcoin protocol rather than having to rebuild all the infrastructure over and over.

Bitcoin is finally getting some traction in the physical world and big online companies are starting to notice it and sometimes even thinking about implementing it, but they'll never even stop to think about using scamcoin 3000.

What time frame do you mean by 'the long run'? Some of us are no longer in our 20s or 30s & hope that it'll get there sooner rather than later  ;)

After 2nd bubble which will happen around late 2015, i think it's very possible. Bitcoin is financial revolution, actually the first real money out there.

I completely disagree with this statement. I think if any altcoins can completely decouple from Bitcoin, they could go above and beyond it. The issue we have right now with Bitcoin is that it's so widespread with pools and miners that making hard forks (for major changes) is getting more and more difficult.

This deluded belief is going to cost a lot of people a lot of money. I say "a lot of" people, it's really just those in the current crypto communities who have been sucked in to the altcoin delirium (hey look, that's a cool name for another altcoin!). Bitcoin will be the only coin that ever gains mass adoption across the world, it's far too far ahead now. The only altcoins left standing will be those with some niche usage, such as absolute anon. The few genuinely useful altcoins (whenever they actually arrive) might make devs and a small group of early adopters wealthy, but Bitcoin is the safe place to be for the long run.

2018-2020

Bitcoin is pretty young, and I expect facebook-like growth.


Still far easier than trying to get an altcoin accepted by the mainstream. And once that new altcoin becomes outdated repeat the whole process again with yet another altcoin. And with mainstream I also mean venture capital, big industries (both online and offline), a lot of small industries, your local supermarket, etc.

Simply not gunna happen.

There's a reason coin map only shows the location of physical shops that accept bitcoin and lite coin. Because these are the two original coins and even lite coin does not come close to bitcoin.

After a few years there will most likely not be many Altcoins to begin with

What a worthless news website. They are claiming in thailand bitcoin is illegal. lol

Algorithmic / Abstract

It occupies the same realm as numbers. Of themselves they are an abstract quality, but applied to discrete objects they describe a reality.

Say you have 10 $1 bills. You can say you have 10 dollars, but the existence of a dollar is not intrinsically tied to that bill. You could equally have 1 $10 bill. So the dollar is abstract, physical representations of the dollar are real, but they are no more a dollar than a casascius coin is a bitcoin. The physical dollar bills, are tokens that represent the abstract entity of a "US Dollar". In bitcoin, the state of the blockchain represents the abstract entity of a "Bitcoin". Wallets are the 'dollar bills' of varying denominations.

So in terms of existence the dollar and the bitcoin are really not that much different. The ways in which transfer of ownership may happen share many parallels, although with fiat there is a monopoly over the electronic transmission (banking system). The biggest difference is the mechanism of creation - who is in charge of the money supply.

For better or worse, that seems to be the biggest disturbance to the status quo of the world's economy. Interesting times. I'm amazed people feel so sure that things will go one way or another. Never go full fiat/BTC ;)

Yes right, come up with a stupid premise and build silly deductions on top of that great! Like: "Before it reaches $100k, every person on earth will have some coins. That will have the coins equally spread out, and allow everybody transact over internet and nobody will be too rich or too poor."

It can happen, the other question is, will $100k will have the same value as now!? Earlier or later th US Dollar will be collapsing.

When it becomes obvious to everyone that they should really buy some, then they will. At which point it will become obvious to everyone that they should really buy some...

http://www.gifsforum.com/images/gif/other/grand/Data_To_Know_Him_Was_To_Love_H_f3cac06ae8b9c0e3426887d7641617fe.gif

 :)

And you base this assumption on what proof?  What evidence exactly?  Oh wait..

(Oh and btw, Bitcoin is completely programmable, constantly being evolved, and can incorporate new features, including those of any alt coin, at any time in the future.  Making said alt coin obsolete.  And.. "Shhh! Be quiet! Don't tell him that, we don't want that secret to get out!"... oh ok)

Market cap would be over a trillion.  Not inconceivable several years down the road.

I think that if bitcoin became the most used currency in the world it is possible that one bitcoin's value would be somewhere around there. I think that if this were to happen, however, it wouldn't be for at least like 10 ish years.

It will probably happen.
the only problem is that when it happens its likely that 100,000$ will only buy you a loaf of bread.

If someone can find a way to really tie in the coins together, I think that could help though. For example, allow people to buy services or items using *any* currency and have it automatically calculate the cost (I guess based on exchanges or something). I haven't fully thought through the idea yet but I am sure there are things people can come up with to help bring the coins, as a whole, closer together.

I do agree that it's going to be a long journey though!

In other words... NOW IS THE TIME TO INVEST IN BREAD! YOU'LL BE A BILLIONAIRE!

xD... i dont know, back in 2013 i had not believe it but then when everybody was expecting ltc to go 5 usd and it went to 30.. now i think everything is possible with bitcoin and criptocurrencies.

That is almost the combined market cap of Paypal + Visa + Master + Western Union. So I wouldn't say that it is impossible. But a 200x valuation is extremely unlikely for many years from now.

it's been so dapper with BTC for the past 3 months.. i'm waiting or things to heat up in the summer. speculating a far off number like $100k is too far in the future for me to even consider. i just want to see it rally up a little bit for the time being.

If it goes back to the ATH, I'd be happy with that. Until we hit that we're obviously not going to move forward. I think for all intents and purposes, while I do believe that BTC will increase many times what it has so far, we need to be shooting for just the ATH right now (which was like what, 1.2k).

I am bullish on this and I don't think Dixon's estimates are too far off. A lot can happen in the next 5 years and the magnitude could be enormous. Big changes can mean big things include major shifts upwards in prices, so $100K is doable, but maybe in excess of 5 years.

TO DA MOON! CHOO CHOO! CCMF!  1 000 000 USD by the end of week! Who disagrees is FUD spreader!

If you feel this confident, I'll sell you all of my BTCs right now at only $999,000. You'll make a profit of 1k per coin!

ALLRIGHT! WEAK HANDS SHAKED! YEAH!

why not? :D

Exactly.  This would be very difficult to achieve in less than 25 or more years.

Much depends on what it becomes. I don't buy it as a day to day currency en masse. People are conservative, even more so when it comes to money.

If it becomes another asset class that's fed back to regular people by professionals then it could happen within a fairly short timescale.

I think a lot of people would have spent it therefore increasing it's velocity and the number of people holding it.  The current holders will just spread it out to more people holding smaller amounts.

The issue is that most people spending the coins are doing so at a finite number of places (which is pretty small), which then have to liquidate them. The more people in the community the less of an effect this has though.

Much more than that if pension funds enter

 It Depends.


 > $10,000.00 usd per btc ?? = YES.

 
 I believe Bitcoin and Gold (per ounce) will both be worth north of $10K usd, no doubts, within one decade ( 10 years time ).


 After $10K usd per btc it depends on how much of the Global Marketplace Bitcoin captures and sustains.


 And of course a lot of other things.


 Patience.



Bitcoin is Freedom.

Most never thought it would break the price of gold, but it did. I think $10,000 isn't out of vision for sure.

It depends on a lot of things in the world both on and offline, but the core of it is if demand is suddenly spiked to the available Bitcoin supply. With Bitcoin being fairly illiquid, it doesn't take much to move the price around. A big surge of interest will quickly zap the supply side, and once the price ball gets rolling back upward most tend to hang on unless getting out of a previous market position leading to a much higher price to try and liberate those coins from holders.

The source of such big and sudden interest? I think when fiat currencies really start catching fire (along with associated stocks, bonds, funds, etc), the only place to go will be Bitcoin as the only sound economic system in place. This is happening worldwide, and so is Bitcoin. We could see the perfect windfall, and current owners of coveted Bitcoin will win big. Wealth transfer will come full circle from the now panicking banking bigwigs trying to save their portfolios from the ravages of economic policy gone awry.

Bitcoin would require a large update/hard fork to ever reach this level. I doubt that will ever happen. It would require this because the transaction speed is not conducive to real world usage. Tell a customer they have to wait 10minutes just to buy a soda at the store. Nobody wants to do that. Bitcoin also doesn't have a method of chargebacks. While some see this as a good thing I see it as a bad thing. Customers need to be protected from the abusive practices of businesses. Currently if my cable company decided to double charge me I could contact my credit card company to get my money back. They will fight abusive business practices for me. While much of this could eventually be added to bitcoin I think it's currently limited by it's size. I believe crypto currencies are the future of money. I just don't believe it will be bitcoin. I believe eventually an extremely innovative altcoin will take the market by storm becoming possibly of greater value than bitcoin.

You're obviously new here.

The 10 minute confirmation time is there to avoid that lagg will cause a miner to do a 51% attack because if you just chain your own block you will not need to wait for confirmations. If the confirmation time is too low the network would not be nearly as secure. That being said the 10 minute confirmation time is only the time the network needs (on average) to actually put the transaction in a block, but as soon as a transaction is signed as valid and spread throughout most of the network (a process that will usually take only seconds) a transaction can not be taken back in principle (there are some workarounds, but they are not foolproof and no one would risk doing that for a sandwich).

So anything that is not too valueable can easily be sold without having to wait. And anything that is very valueable does not usually get sold within 10 minutes anyway.

Chargebacks are not needed either. Cash does not have chargebacks and it's still a popular payment method. Credit cards and banks have chargebacks mostly because when a company has your info they can take money out of your account without your permission, but you can just chargeback if they do that. Chargeback is often used for fraud though and it's better not to have it, because otherwise it would be very difficult and costly to avoid getting scammed.

Ahm and it depends on the rate of reserve and velocity of money. And: In today's dollars or in some hyper inflated USD scenario. Let's assume the latter are the same like today. Same as the economic output.
So what matters is adoption (what % of all transaction volume in purchasing consumer or real investment goods in the world) and rate of reserve (21mio. Bitcoins / all bitcoins and claims of bitcolins used as money).

What is the supply of money worldwide? We have about 1 trillions € as coins and banknotes, 5 trillions as M1. The Euro-zone has about 1/5 of the world economy, so the world's cash should be around 5 trillion and the world's M1 around 25 trillion or 7 trillion and 35 trill.. USD. 

So what if there are no claims of Bitcoins (for example people store 1Mio. Bitcoins on coinbase but coinbase has only 500 000 coins over time, because they realise, not all clients want their coins at the same time) and 100% of all transactions are used in Bitcoin?
This would be 35trill. USD / 21mio. Bitcoins = 1.2 mio. per Bitcoin.

So now you can play other szenarios:
Let's assume a 50% reserve rate and 10% transaction volume. This would be 3,5trill. / 42mio. bitcoin = 83 000$

So let's try 10% reserve and 1% transaction volume. This would be 350trill. / 210 mio. Bitcoins = 1650$

What do we have today?
I think it is more or less 100% reserve. Maybe 80%. And the transaction volume should be far less than 0,001% (Attention: The 35trill. USD money supply is not the transaction volume. And pushing around bitcoin from one account to another account of the same person is no transaction volume in this sense. You are not buying anything in and market transaction).

Other effect: If Bitcoin is a better store of value than toady's dollar, this adds value like other features of this currency. If it is more volatile etc. this subtracts value.

I wasn't aware that the transaction time had to do with protecting the network. On the note of chargebacks and whatnot, I think accepting 0-confirmation transactions for smaller items is fine. Credit cards, while accepted even for larger items, are not safe either; people can do a chargeback and get a full refund. It's be the same thing with Bitcoin and 0-confirmations.

Well, most of our actions and activities have moved to the network already. Bitcoin, as a global, digital currency was something everyone was waiting for. It will revolutionise the world in a way we do not fully imagine yet.

Yeah that depends on thee greed of each one, some people might be good to see bitcoin at 10,000 and will spend it while others will continue to hodling.

I don't think that you need to wait if you use bitpay. Nevertheless, the advantage is in P2P transactions.

thats a great point zimmah. people act like alt coins could 'easily' overtake bitcoin, but they're all literally useless. i think drk and ltc can be used on some sort of silk road like mystery land off in the dark voids of the internet maybe, but no where else. if i wanted to go on vacation and buy a car and a house and art and jewelry with bitcoins, i could do it. right now. thats bitcoins advantage is that its the only crypto coin you can actually use to buy real things besides other crypto coins.

Well given the absence of a time target I guess it is possible but I doubt a bitcoin will ever be worth 100,000 USD worth of 2014 purchasing power.  Here's why:

Right now all btc really allows you to do is access the btc payment network and be a commodity with a fixed number of units.  The first of these is easily imitated by alt coins, the litecoin or doge payment network is functionally equivalent, and in some ways better, than bitcoin's.  This just leaves the second and while bitcoin will clearly benefit from network effects, in fact it already has, I just don't see people agreeing that it is worth 100K each.

However, I must say, as a huge bitcoin fan, I hope I'm wrong.

It is unfortunate that Ghash.io managed to get 51%+ as that does cut to the core of the bitcoin value proposition of decentralization.  Given something like this happened, that a year ago I would have said was impossible, clearly there are challenges ahead, which also work against the 100K USD price target.

I'm worried that the dollar will fail by the time we're at $20,000 per coin. Afterwards BTC might be the new monetary system. Like it or not, apart from gold, it's the only candidate.

Worried? Here's to HOPING

Well, not really. It was really difficult to break through the spot price of gold, and it happened only momentarily and only for GoxBux. You could never actually buy gold for bitcoins at that price.

So one thing at a time. Surely one bitcoin has the potential to be worth much more than one ounce of gold, which are both completely arbitrary units. Probably several times more. But it's not really true that it has been there.

Not in the next bull run, but the one after, we will probably see the price of one kg of gold to be lower than the price of 1 BTC.

Before the end of the year we will be able to buy 1 gold ounce with less than a BTC, maybe two ounces or three (at the peak and depending on the exchange rate of gold and USD).

Before the end of the next year we will be able to buy 1 kg gold for one bitcoin (maybe not, if the gold price soar as I hope to 2K before the end of this year and 4K before the end of next year).

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

It might be a valid line of thought if this was a forum talking about magical cardigans with pictures of fairies that we really, really hoped the rest of the world would love too.

It ain't. Price projections are based on straightforward adoption and usage of something that could be potentially incredibly useful.

The question is to what extent the rest of the world learns that it could be of use to them.

When you build your home on rocks (or math) it usually last more than the homes someone else built on sand (and trust).
It is not irrational to expect the homes built on sand and trust to be washed away from a flood (of water or fiat).

The fact a lot of people, here, believe in "to the moon" scenarios is heavily compensated by the fact outside of here a much, much larger group of people do not believe it and believe in "ponzi" scenarios.

Currently there are probably less than a couple of millions of users.
1/3500 people worldwide.

of these, just a small minority really believe in 1 M$/BTC (in today purchasing power).

Because those ppl are seeing the bigger picture and are long-term holders. Cant youre brain accept the power of Bitcoin?

You stay at ignored.

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

I really appreciate your postings but don't you think you are overestimating the influence of the bitcointalk-board? I think this board, and particularly, the shouting crowd of uber-perma-bulls just as perma-bear-trolls has an vanishingly small impact on the price movements or the long term future of bitcoin.

Uber-perma-bulls buying 0.5 BTC to get rich same day or perma-bear-trolls selling 0.25 before the end of bitcoin....

...an ignorable factor ;-)

That and a few thousand years of gold hoarding tradition.  Until un-backed fiat came into vogue, everything was settled in physical or 1:1 gold notes.  Bitcoin has 6 years of hoarding tradition?  And an unlimited number of cryptos can be propped up to spar with Bitcoin?  I'd say tread lightly.  The landscape will be totally different in 5 years, and I'm not confident Bitcoin will remain on top in the crypto world, let alone the physical world.

It has the potential to reach $100K - even in today's purchasing power. Question is, if Bitcoin can realize this potential.

That is not sure at all: Bitcoin could die without prior notice due to technical problems. Or a better competitor could emerge and draw people away from bitcoin. - Just to name two potential threats to the $100K prediction.

Nobody can foresee the future. Just keep on using Bitcoin and watch what happens next. :)

A large number of rare materials can be propped up to spar with gold; silver for example.  What keeps gold on top?

I believe

http://bountyandbliss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Believe-blue-moon-101119-02.jpg

Simple.  Gold melts at a relatively low temperature.  It is appropriately scarce for a currency, unlike elements like iron and iridium.  It does not tarnish (even silver tarnishes).  It is malleable.  It is generally non-toxic.  If you read up on the chemistry of gold, you'll realize how valuable it is and why people have chosen it as a store of value above all else for millennia.  Cryptos have a wealth of features traditional currencies do not, but are truly the epitome of faith-based value, much like fiat currencies.  A lot of us have gotten very lucky dabbling with Bitcoin as a store of value, but the true value of Bitcoin is in the protocol and network backing it, not the ledger entries.  Most of the people here have missed the boat and are praying for a new surge of money so they can dump.  The truth is, it really makes no difference what currency (physical or otherwise) one uses to conduct business, provided the protocol is sound.  Doesn't matter whether its scraps of garbage, seashells, gold coins, Bitcoins, Darkcoins, whatever .. so long as the basic requirements of a currency are met.  Quite arbitrary.  Trade accordingly.

Theres nothing chemically special about gold. But yes, the fact that it does not oxidize (as does titanium) and you can melt it on regular fire, plus that you don't need any special knowledge to extract it's pure form, and above all, that it is shiny pretty - defined it's role I think.

I understand the power of bitcoin (based on today's state of affairs and today's fundemantals in 2014) and I understand that not all of bitcoin's potential users have been reached. However, my statements aren't really about market sentiment analysis or forum sentiment. They are about the attitude I've been told that I'm supposed to have, and how this conflicts with my own sentiment as an investor.

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin. I just get to sit back and watch it grow - next year it'll be 10x, the year after that it will be 100x, and then a year later it will be 1000x - it's a destiny and it's 100% guaranteed to be fulfilled... this does not compute.

First of all, it's too easy. I'm just supposed to sit on coins and don't have to do anything. Bitcoin also doesn't need to do much either - it just stays as exactly what it is maybe some minor code fixes here and there. You're basically sitting on a commodity (Warren Buffet hates this). Most truly good investments involve a company that is making drastic improvements to itself and it's products or the investors themselves are doing something. Just sitting on a commodity is too easy. It also makes one wonder about the nature of the other investors who are sitting on a commodity - they are all mostly in it to do nothing and sit on a commodity to make profit, and are doing nothing for Bitcoin - they would probably dump really easily if the right conditions were met.

Second of all, this destiny thing does not compute to me as an investor. Nothing is that certain, or guaranteed. Some kind of hurdle is going to show up, some wall will be hit, or some new thing is going to be revealed, some X-factor. It always happens. Every great investment is a new paradigm, until it isn't. A trend has held for 5 whole years and you feel elated over the information you have in 2014... but what about 2015? 2016? Something can always change - and often it does. Never let yourself get so psychologically carried away with your ideals that you forget about the nature of reality.

I'm not trying to be bearish, say that prices are going down, or that Bitcoin doesn't have a bright future from here. I'm just tryign to stay grounded in reality, and am saying that nothing is guaranteed, and $100,000 would be a fantastic accomplishment but is not a destiny.

How is this different to the situation with gold?

It's not, and I'm not advocating gold and an investment for value growth. Since you asked though, gold does have a couple differences from Bitcoin - it has thousands of years of history behind it and is less likely to suffer from a catastrophic failure than Bitcoin. However, this is irrelevant to the discussion.

Great summary. Trolls will hate on it, but let them.

Reminds me of this old xkcd on Bayesian priors:


https://i.imgur.com/67nckqQ.png


Take home message: the absolutely unforeseen can of course happen. "Every thing that happens regularly had to happen for a first time." ... Just don't bet too much on it happening during your life time :)

I have not much to say about this, it's pretty decent post about the situation, but this bold one... Of course it can be that "easy". That's the power of capital in right place, good investors "just" sit their money on right address and that's it! And this is completely different thing than what improvements has to be made in that investment and investor doesn't necessarily have to do none of these things. This is how money works in our world. I'm not saying that it's right or wrong, just trying to describe power structures.

Valid point.

But you realize that you take the example of capital gains in the existing "power structures", apply it to an emerging, even competing power structure (Bitcoin), and throw in an order of magnitude or two higher return rates for good measure.

Not saying it's impossible, but chances are, it will go exactly as smoothly as you'd expect given the description above.

I'm not sure that bitcoin will radically change how money works in this example, in investing. Maybe bitcoin will change the in-balance of who has money, because you can't print it anymore, but in "bitcoinland" you will still need money to make things happen.

I'm not saying that bitcoin is definitely good investment where you should sit your money, just that it sure can be and then it would be that "easy".

(There has been some investments in fiat world too that has had very good return rates, in that sense bitcoin is nothing new.)

(Quote marks are there, because it's not necessarily that easy to just keep your money example in bitcoin.)

Why are we still discussing if supply and demand works the way we all know it does? I mean I would like for 2+2 to equal 5, it's a nice number and it looks better, but I don't go around telling people who claim that 2+2=4 that they are wrong and that things can always change.

On a very similar thread, we had an interesting discussion about what bitcoin price would be based on real money supply figures. $450,000 = BTC1
seemed to be the value at mass adoption. Though there was an argument for 10x that if you use broad money (M3). This is how we calculated it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=646186.0

I personally don't buy into these 100k predictions. I can however see 2k-10k easily  ;D

I remember the 90's when people were saying nobody would ever pay $100,000 for a domain name!! Well:


    Insurance.com $35.6 million in 2010 [1]
    VacationRentals.com $35 million in 2007 [2]
    PrivateJet.com $30.1 million in 2012 [3]
    Internet.com $18 million in 2009 [4]
    Insure.com $16 million in 2009 [5]
    Sex.com for $14 million in November 2010[5][6]
    Hotels.com $11 million in 2001 [7]
    Fund.com 2008 £9.99 million[5]
    Porn.com 2007 $9.5 million[5]
    Fb.com by Facebook for $8.5 million in November 2010[8]
    Business.com for $7.5 million in December 1999[5]
    Diamond.com 2006 $7.5 million[5]
    Beer.com 2004 $7 million[5]
    iCloud.com by Apple for $6 million in March 2011[9]
    Casino.com 2003 $5.5 million[5]
    Slots.com 2010 for $5.5 million [10]
    Toys.com: Toys 'R' Us by auction for $5.1 million in 2009[5][11]
    Asseenontv.com 2000 for $5.1 million [12]
    Clothes.com 2008 for $4.9 million [13]
    IG.com 2013 september for $4.6 million, acquired by IG Group from Internet Group Brazil [14]
    GiftCard.com by CardLab for $4 million in October 2012[15]
    Yp.com by YellowPages.com for $3.8 million in November 2008[16]
    Mi.com by Xiaomi for $3.6 million in April 2014[17]
    AltaVista.com for $3.3 million in August 1998
    Whisky.com for $3.1 million in December 2013[18]
    Candy.com for $3.0 million in June 2009[19]
    Loans.com by Bank of America for $3.0 million in February 2000[20]
    Investing.com by Fusion Media Ltd. for $2.45 million in December 2012[21]


It's a simple choice with bitcoin, you can refuse to believe in it, and spend the rest of your life regretting that decision, or you can take a chance. You don't exactly have to invest huge sums BTC1 is a great hedge for the future!

As Lucille Ball once said: "I'd rather regret the things i've done than the things I have not done!"

No.

this guys not a belieber

Sure, one day it will be worth that much,but the question is when. I didn't think that we would hit 1k as fast as we did, I also didn't think we would go back to 400 after hitting 1k.. If we had a crystal ball, we would all be rich. Im  just glad I was able to get into bitcoin when I did.

burn the heretic!

The number of hashes per $ of mining hardware and per $ of electricity falls over time.
The cost of running the network
... must keep rising so that it isn't profitable for a single entity to take it over
... must be lower than the value of the transaction fees to stay profitable for miners and prevent the aforementioned
The value of the volume of btc transferred per day must then be at least 100x higher than the cost of running the network, based on tx fees lower than 1%.

throw in some variables to get valuation.

Now they say it will be $100K in the USD...

Well what if the USD is worthless?  What if the USD is worth tons?  How can they make such bold predictions like that? 

Anyway....Would be insane if it every happened in today's standards as far as the USD goes.  I for one would absolutely love it...

True enough.  Thanks to ole fat ass sitting up in his penthouse behind one way glass taking dumps there are countless other coins either lost, stolen, or forgotten about.

$100,000 bitcoin, I believe if it sticks around is inevitable (if your talking USD) but not anytime soon.

Very interesting, since 2010 the people have been telling about 10 k or 100 k bitcoin, most sold in the first bubble but at the end their toughts surely will become real.

USD is expected to go down the way GPB did when British lose their empire.

If you are borrowing USD to buy bitcoin and bitcoin/usd pair went up many folds, then you will do very well if you are right.

It's possible, but there is no guarantee and it's a long way to go. For now, we have to cross the 1000$ boundary again.
But who knows what the price will be in the year 2016 or 2020.
I think, by then it's either gone way up or way down - I do not think the price will remain the same for so many years.

Not really a student of history are you? UK Is still one of the wealthiest economies in the world, even without it's 'Empire'! US has barely managed 60 years of 'Peaking'  and it's throwing it all away with insane monetary policy to service the truly wealthy who are actually running your country. Don't get me started...

It depends on the future we are talking about, but a little example:

Year 2140, When all 21 million Bitcoins were mined, there would be like 80 billions of dollars worldwide (80 millions of millions, twelve zeros),

so 80 000 000 000 000/ 21 000 000 = BTC Price: 3 809 523 dollars each

Wealthiest in what way? British were bailed out by the IMF in the 70's because no country will lend them any money.

They were lucky to pump additional north sea oil in the 80's (and peaked in mid 80's). Now that the oil is drying up, and international financial center is leaving London, what industry can replace these two gigantic source of income?

The IMF is a very corrupt organisation, they are not a creditable source. Aside from that, the UK empire has integrated with the Five Eyes. (Australia,Canada,New Zealand,United Kingdom,United States of America ).

Ahhh I see you believe what you see on American owned and controlled TV! London was, is and will always be the worlds financial centre, much as US would want otherwise, they blew that chance, the world does not trust them with that responsibility, especially the muslim world.

If it was not for the fact that the world made the mistake of allowing the dollar to become the world reserve currency, and the further mistake of allowing Nixon to break from the gold standard, the USA would have been broke several times over, instead it prints insane amounts of money to bail itself out, the kinds of amounts that if it was not world reserve would have certainly had similar effect to Zimbabwe! So don't even begin to think you can lecture us about bailouts!!

The IMF is totally corrupt  tool of US foreign policy, with the US admitting on a leaked document that it gets about $1.60 dollars back for every $1 it puts into IMF because of the way it forces borrowing countries to restructure and allow access to american companies!

Our north sea oil peaked on the millenium (1999 I think) and still produces at about 60% of peak with new discoveries also. So at least get your facts straight.

For a tiny island of no particicular geographic significance we are still one of the worlds largest (6th I think) GDP's 200 years after empire. I would not like to bet on America even being ranked 200 years from now after it's 'peak'!!  And it certainly won't be the hub of world finance!! LOL

When bitcoin finally levels the world playing field, current leading players finance centers US and UK will be losers, it's inevitable.

Ultimately, reserve currency needs to be either backed by either gold or military might.

Bitcoin has neither. It will useful for small/medium size foreign purchases to save conversion and transaction fee. Other than that, I do not see it being useful for any other purpose.

The only real threat to bitcoins are the double spending attacks. 100k per coin isn't unreasonable, but it's pretty safe to say most early adopters would have cashed out by then.

The thing about becoming rich through bitcoins, is if you have loads of coins and they become worth something, you can sell them to buy something else, but then you won't have any bitcoins any more.

Interesting statement, but unless you back it with reasoning it's just another opinionated throwaway line?

I think the general rule is that if Bitcoin reaches the same status/market cap as that of gold, then each coin would be worth roughly $333,000 in today's fiat terms. If Bitcoin manages to replace fiat completely, then each coin would be worth about $1 million.

$100,000 per bitcoin would indicate a market cap of $2.1 trillion.

All statements are certainly my own view.

If you need to quote source and data on every statement you make on this forum, you won't have time for anything else.

it is quite possible to reach 10k within 2 years, and later who knows, you cant realy predict further than that.
we still didnt experience the power of global marketing, and also we are still in the early phase where errors and corrections are fixed "on the fly", which needs to be given much more attention.

Military might.. this is the wealth of wealth.  With this a group of people or a person can take everything and anything and deem paper more valuable than gold.
Only issue is.. eventually the game of people accepting shit tickets as something of value comes to a crashing end when the military runs low on funds and cannot enforce the use of the shit tickets..

IMO sooner than later a country with a decent army will back it's currency with something of value(for like 10-20 years before starting the ponzi scheme again) the Federal reserve note will become useless, Merica's army will be crippled an well... I hope you don't plan on living in the Fema state.

I still don't think that is possible, but I would absolutely love it if it did.  I don't even think experts can predict what will happen in 2 weeks let alone 2 years. 

Don't get me wrong though, if this happened I would be absolutely thrilled!

Something I noticed is that most people either think in the short term or the long term. Successful daytraders are good at predicting what the price will be in an hour, tomorrow or in a week but most of them don't have a long term perspective. Others can clearly see the long term picture but have no idea what the price will be tomorrow. So it's not really a matter of one being easier than the other but of some people being specialized in different timeframes.

Triying to day trade bitcoin is gambling.. unless you know are in a clearly bullrun.. and sometimes not even in those possitions.

I guess I don't think people can guess anything.  A lot of it has to due based on something they know the public doesn't know.  Which makes it not a guess.

Or they guess and get lucky.

I mean if all of these traders were as good as anyone thinks.  You should be able to almost double your money everyday.  After 1 month you should be able to retire a millionaire...

Just my thoughts

Most of them lose money. Just as a lot of people lose their nerve on long time investing. But it is possible for some.

I've watched Bitcoin for a long time now and owned some for a bit less time, but long enough to know that the actual possibilities have already exceeded what I thought was possible a few times over.

I no longer have too many concrete expectations for it, but +$10k in less than two years would not be surprising to me.

I am currently just holding my bitcoins, because in theory once the limit of the amount of bitcoins is reached, demand will indefinitely go up, increasing the price. Although I think that in the future bitcoin will need to stay at more or less a stable fixed price like CAD or USD. People don't want to randomly lose 25% of their entire bank account, and then have it go up later. Holding money shouldn't be gambling.

How could it possibly go to 100k when both US and China trying to discourage its usage?

Care to back that up with some documentation?

if china and US can accept bitcoin as their secondary currency
we'll see that price
but since FuckingED can't print bitcoin, they won't do that
i'll believe $100k when i see $10k first and mass adoption of BTC happen

China probably but the us? thats was a good joke, if US would like to discourage its usage, they had destroyed the bitcoins they got from SR not auctioning them, they would be proving by an example that bitcoin is not good.

Destroying them would just increase scarcity, thus driving price up. Sadly they were not so kind.

Well I doubt that it would be worth that much ever.  I mean everyone would start mining bit coins, if you could spend 7000 dollars and mine 1 bit coin over a month or something, it would easily be worth it.  Hell could retire quickly...

the price of Bitcoin is exceeding 64 bitcorns on the last day of June..
A nice prediction by a sad uni professor (Mr. Willams) that 1BTC=1bitcorn ($10) in June 2014
I think that he is to be make fun off until the end of bitcoin...

You are not thinking it through. Think harder.

Hahaha, 10 dollars= 1 bitcorn is hilarious, I'm adopting that.

I think he is officially wrong in half of the world now.

When did he make that prediction? 

Can't really laugh at people for making guesses though...And thats all it is, a guess on what will happen to the price!

it's funny when it comes from a professor who teaches economy though. And the fact that it was so obviously wrong even at the time he predicted it.

In fact most people would probably take him more seriously if he predicted $10 per millibitcoin.

You don't think a professor should be able to at least make a qualified guess on something in his area of expertise, a guess that is more than a total joke from day one?

I don't think we will see it hit $100,000 although I would love to see it. I suspect that altcoins and upgrades to math based currencies will bleed away a lot of bitcoin's marketshare over time. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 20-30K though.

So much talking about the price, why you don't just accept Bitcoin as a new innovative and amazing economy step for humanity ? 

100K, can't say anything about this but
we will see price over $2000 mark this year

oh it will be few millions.

I am a believer. I really hope so also cause I have a nice amount of bit coins.

10,000 per bitcoin is more realistic, at least at short term, in future years we dont know what will happen to fiat empires.

I'm bullish on the future of BTC, but I still think it is far more likely that we see $10 before we see $100,000

Realistically I see it sitting at either 100, 1,000, or 100,000 dollars. I don't see it being a random number because I think you should be able to easily convert it in your head. Out of those 3 I think that it will most likely be 1,000, but I'm not an expert or anything.

If you are bullish how can you ever think BTC will go to $10 before $100,000?

The chance that the price will fall to $10 is almost zero. Even if SHA-256 is cracked it will be replaced fast by SHA-512 or whatever and there would be bigger problems in the world.

Previous bubbles have shown that there is just so much demand for BTC, after each new high there are higher lows and it's even very unlikely $330 will be seen again.

Along with all the great news lately how do you think it is far more likely?

Should know by now any event is possible however unlikely it is.

Has it occur to anyone that Fannie Mae, which is backed by US government, a company with close to 100 billion market cap before 2008, will go bankrupt and need bail out from taxpayer?

Inflation alone should tell you that going that low isn't very likely. I'd consider that statement to be beyond bearish to say the least. I doubt all this investment money pouring in now and in the future spells anything even close to what you're envisioning.

My opinion is that either bitcoin is worth nothing, or worth a lot. If bitcoin can't work as a currency it will be worth a low amount, and if it is used as a global currency used by a lot of people, the market cap has to be in the ten to a hundred billions, or even trillions, meaning that a bitcoin has to be worth a lot more than 600$

pretty sure crypto is the future of money... its only a matter of time, crypto is far superior, its the next logical step, it wouldn't make sense to stick to fiat for very much longer, fiat has some serious security holes, easily taken adv of, always in a state of collapse, not good for the economy, and once you go crypto you never go back, so....  8)

That we all agree.

Question is which crypto?

Probably bitcoin, but possible an altcoin could surpass it if it has just the right features to be a currency.

First identify the 'right' features or focus, if the qualities to look for are known, then it will make identifying the potential currencies easier.

I'm not an expert, so I don't know exactly, but for us to have 1 coin to use mainly, it has to be completely perfect and sustainable for a while. Imagine if cash was designed with some weaknesses, and then they introduced a new type of currency, making your cash useless.

Do they need to be currencies? can they not be bootstrapped or built on any blockchain?


Sustainable, yes. Fair to say practical? What makes a cryptographic currency impractical is also an interesting question.

I cannot improve on that answer, I have tried to say it before (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660544.msg7901987#msg7901987), although it took me a page and you a few words.

Do you mind if I quote you in order to add clarity?

ATM will no longer be needed they are going to disappear.

Mobile BTC device. Thats all you need.

Thank you, if you ever feel like discussing something interesting or sharing some insight, please feel free to drop in.

I guess until they make Bitcoin more secure, and if they reach that high I would imagine you would want something reversible like a bank account...

I mean, if they did get that high I would be absolutely terrified I would be hacked and all of the coins would be gone...

Yes you can take steps to prevent it and all that good stuff but what if I wanted to sell my coins at that point...I would have to put them online for a little bit...

So what do you guys think about this graphic as seen on the rpietla thread?
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs9txjFP.jpg%26t%3D542%26c%3DwS4KogEqGWuJhg&t=542&c=VlEwy23hs-veGA

Are we there in Bitcoin or not? Can we equiparate Microsoft which is a business, to Bitcoin which is intended to be a currency?