A Single Bitcoin will Worth $100K - Do You Believe it?

[gentlemand]

Much depends on what it becomes. I don't buy it as a day to day currency en masse. People are conservative, even more so when it comes to money.

If it becomes another asset class that's fed back to regular people by professionals then it could happen within a fairly short timescale.

[tuneman1980]

Before it reaches $100k, most people would have sold it all. That will just leave a minority group holding lots of bitcoin. Less people use bitcoin to transact, it becomes useless.

I think a lot of people would have spent it therefore increasing it's velocity and the number of people holding it.  The current holders will just spread it out to more people holding smaller amounts.

[ranlo]

Before it reaches $100k, most people would have sold it all. That will just leave a minority group holding lots of bitcoin. Less people use bitcoin to transact, it becomes useless.

I think a lot of people would have spent it therefore increasing it's velocity and the number of people holding it.  The current holders will just spread it out to more people holding smaller amounts.

The issue is that most people spending the coins are doing so at a finite number of places (which is pretty small), which then have to liquidate them. The more people in the community the less of an effect this has though.

[johnyj]

Much more than that if pension funds enter

[Slingshot]

 It Depends.


 > $10,000.00 usd per btc ?? = YES.

 
 I believe Bitcoin and Gold (per ounce) will both be worth north of $10K usd, no doubts, within one decade ( 10 years time ).


 After $10K usd per btc it depends on how much of the Global Marketplace Bitcoin captures and sustains.


 And of course a lot of other things.


 Patience.



Bitcoin is Freedom.

[Operatr]

Most never thought it would break the price of gold, but it did. I think $10,000 isn't out of vision for sure.

It depends on a lot of things in the world both on and offline, but the core of it is if demand is suddenly spiked to the available Bitcoin supply. With Bitcoin being fairly illiquid, it doesn't take much to move the price around. A big surge of interest will quickly zap the supply side, and once the price ball gets rolling back upward most tend to hang on unless getting out of a previous market position leading to a much higher price to try and liberate those coins from holders.

The source of such big and sudden interest? I think when fiat currencies really start catching fire (along with associated stocks, bonds, funds, etc), the only place to go will be Bitcoin as the only sound economic system in place. This is happening worldwide, and so is Bitcoin. We could see the perfect windfall, and current owners of coveted Bitcoin will win big. Wealth transfer will come full circle from the now panicking banking bigwigs trying to save their portfolios from the ravages of economic policy gone awry.

[404notfound]

Bitcoin would require a large update/hard fork to ever reach this level. I doubt that will ever happen. It would require this because the transaction speed is not conducive to real world usage. Tell a customer they have to wait 10minutes just to buy a soda at the store. Nobody wants to do that. Bitcoin also doesn't have a method of chargebacks. While some see this as a good thing I see it as a bad thing. Customers need to be protected from the abusive practices of businesses. Currently if my cable company decided to double charge me I could contact my credit card company to get my money back. They will fight abusive business practices for me. While much of this could eventually be added to bitcoin I think it's currently limited by it's size. I believe crypto currencies are the future of money. I just don't believe it will be bitcoin. I believe eventually an extremely innovative altcoin will take the market by storm becoming possibly of greater value than bitcoin.

[zimmah]

You're obviously new here.

The 10 minute confirmation time is there to avoid that lagg will cause a miner to do a 51% attack because if you just chain your own block you will not need to wait for confirmations. If the confirmation time is too low the network would not be nearly as secure. That being said the 10 minute confirmation time is only the time the network needs (on average) to actually put the transaction in a block, but as soon as a transaction is signed as valid and spread throughout most of the network (a process that will usually take only seconds) a transaction can not be taken back in principle (there are some workarounds, but they are not foolproof and no one would risk doing that for a sandwich).

So anything that is not too valueable can easily be sold without having to wait. And anything that is very valueable does not usually get sold within 10 minutes anyway.

Chargebacks are not needed either. Cash does not have chargebacks and it's still a popular payment method. Credit cards and banks have chargebacks mostly because when a company has your info they can take money out of your account without your permission, but you can just chargeback if they do that. Chargeback is often used for fraud though and it's better not to have it, because otherwise it would be very difficult and costly to avoid getting scammed.

[porcupine87]

With todays technology to support it, bitcoin could possibly be that valuable or somewhat more, it just depends on the speed of adoption.

Ahm and it depends on the rate of reserve and velocity of money. And: In today's dollars or in some hyper inflated USD scenario. Let's assume the latter are the same like today. Same as the economic output.
So what matters is adoption (what % of all transaction volume in purchasing consumer or real investment goods in the world) and rate of reserve (21mio. Bitcoins / all bitcoins and claims of bitcolins used as money).

What is the supply of money worldwide? We have about 1 trillions € as coins and banknotes, 5 trillions as M1. The Euro-zone has about 1/5 of the world economy, so the world's cash should be around 5 trillion and the world's M1 around 25 trillion or 7 trillion and 35 trill.. USD. 

So what if there are no claims of Bitcoins (for example people store 1Mio. Bitcoins on coinbase but coinbase has only 500 000 coins over time, because they realise, not all clients want their coins at the same time) and 100% of all transactions are used in Bitcoin?
This would be 35trill. USD / 21mio. Bitcoins = 1.2 mio. per Bitcoin.

So now you can play other szenarios:
Let's assume a 50% reserve rate and 10% transaction volume. This would be 3,5trill. / 42mio. bitcoin = 83 000$

So let's try 10% reserve and 1% transaction volume. This would be 350trill. / 210 mio. Bitcoins = 1650$

What do we have today?
I think it is more or less 100% reserve. Maybe 80%. And the transaction volume should be far less than 0,001% (Attention: The 35trill. USD money supply is not the transaction volume. And pushing around bitcoin from one account to another account of the same person is no transaction volume in this sense. You are not buying anything in and market transaction).

Other effect: If Bitcoin is a better store of value than toady's dollar, this adds value like other features of this currency. If it is more volatile etc. this subtracts value.

[ranlo]

You're obviously new here.

The 10 minute confirmation time is there to avoid that lagg will cause a miner to do a 51% attack because if you just chain your own block you will not need to wait for confirmations. If the confirmation time is too low the network would not be nearly as secure. That being said the 10 minute confirmation time is only the time the network needs (on average) to actually put the transaction in a block, but as soon as a transaction is signed as valid and spread throughout most of the network (a process that will usually take only seconds) a transaction can not be taken back in principle (there are some workarounds, but they are not foolproof and no one would risk doing that for a sandwich).

So anything that is not too valueable can easily be sold without having to wait. And anything that is very valueable does not usually get sold within 10 minutes anyway.

Chargebacks are not needed either. Cash does not have chargebacks and it's still a popular payment method. Credit cards and banks have chargebacks mostly because when a company has your info they can take money out of your account without your permission, but you can just chargeback if they do that. Chargeback is often used for fraud though and it's better not to have it, because otherwise it would be very difficult and costly to avoid getting scammed.

I wasn't aware that the transaction time had to do with protecting the network. On the note of chargebacks and whatnot, I think accepting 0-confirmation transactions for smaller items is fine. Credit cards, while accepted even for larger items, are not safe either; people can do a chargeback and get a full refund. It's be the same thing with Bitcoin and 0-confirmations.

[platorin]

Well, most of our actions and activities have moved to the network already. Bitcoin, as a global, digital currency was something everyone was waiting for. It will revolutionise the world in a way we do not fully imagine yet.

[Benjig]

Before it reaches $100k, most people would have sold it all. That will just leave a minority group holding lots of bitcoin. Less people use bitcoin to transact, it becomes useless.

I think a lot of people would have spent it therefore increasing it's velocity and the number of people holding it.  The current holders will just spread it out to more people holding smaller amounts.

Yeah that depends on thee greed of each one, some people might be good to see bitcoin at 10,000 and will spend it while others will continue to hodling.

[Biodom]

Tell a customer they have to wait 10minutes just to buy a soda at the store. Nobody wants to do that. Bitcoin also doesn't have a method of chargebacks. While some see this as a good thing I see it as a bad thing. Customers need to be protected from the abusive practices of businesses.

I don't think that you need to wait if you use bitpay. Nevertheless, the advantage is in P2P transactions.

[maker88]

BitCoin will never probably go that high as it will face competition from newer better altcoins. The total market capitalization off all cryptocoins is expected to increase exponentially but BitCoin's share will gradually decrease.

At some point people have to collectively decide what they're going to get behind. You can't operate a very useful economy if it's hopelessly diluted by countless clones.

altcoins are way behind

Were are the altcoin ATMs, where can you spend your altcoins?

Nowhere, and you can't

end of story.

Altcoins are just a pump and dump pyramid scheme and they don't serve much other purpose.

If any altcoin actually improves on some aspect of bitcoin, it will be far easier to just change that aspect of the bitcoin protocol rather than having to rebuild all the infrastructure over and over.

Bitcoin is finally getting some traction in the physical world and big online companies are starting to notice it and sometimes even thinking about implementing it, but they'll never even stop to think about using scamcoin 3000.

thats a great point zimmah. people act like alt coins could 'easily' overtake bitcoin, but they're all literally useless. i think drk and ltc can be used on some sort of silk road like mystery land off in the dark voids of the internet maybe, but no where else. if i wanted to go on vacation and buy a car and a house and art and jewelry with bitcoins, i could do it. right now. thats bitcoins advantage is that its the only crypto coin you can actually use to buy real things besides other crypto coins.

[galbros]

Well given the absence of a time target I guess it is possible but I doubt a bitcoin will ever be worth 100,000 USD worth of 2014 purchasing power.  Here's why:

Right now all btc really allows you to do is access the btc payment network and be a commodity with a fixed number of units.  The first of these is easily imitated by alt coins, the litecoin or doge payment network is functionally equivalent, and in some ways better, than bitcoin's.  This just leaves the second and while bitcoin will clearly benefit from network effects, in fact it already has, I just don't see people agreeing that it is worth 100K each.

However, I must say, as a huge bitcoin fan, I hope I'm wrong.

It is unfortunate that Ghash.io managed to get 51%+ as that does cut to the core of the bitcoin value proposition of decentralization.  Given something like this happened, that a year ago I would have said was impossible, clearly there are challenges ahead, which also work against the 100K USD price target.

[wobber]

I'm worried that the dollar will fail by the time we're at $20,000 per coin. Afterwards BTC might be the new monetary system. Like it or not, apart from gold, it's the only candidate.

[RomertL]

I'm worried that the dollar will fail by the time we're at $20,000 per coin. Afterwards BTC might be the new monetary system. Like it or not, apart from gold, it's the only candidate.

Worried? Here's to HOPING

[elebit]

Most never thought it would break the price of gold, but it did. I think $10,000 isn't out of vision for sure.

Well, not really. It was really difficult to break through the spot price of gold, and it happened only momentarily and only for GoxBux. You could never actually buy gold for bitcoins at that price.

So one thing at a time. Surely one bitcoin has the potential to be worth much more than one ounce of gold, which are both completely arbitrary units. Probably several times more. But it's not really true that it has been there.

[painlord2k]

Not in the next bull run, but the one after, we will probably see the price of one kg of gold to be lower than the price of 1 BTC.

Before the end of the year we will be able to buy 1 gold ounce with less than a BTC, maybe two ounces or three (at the peak and depending on the exchange rate of gold and USD).

Before the end of the next year we will be able to buy 1 kg gold for one bitcoin (maybe not, if the gold price soar as I hope to 2K before the end of this year and 4K before the end of next year).

[TERA]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.