A Single Bitcoin will Worth $100K - Do You Believe it?

[nomoreheroes7]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

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[gentlemand]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

It might be a valid line of thought if this was a forum talking about magical cardigans with pictures of fairies that we really, really hoped the rest of the world would love too.

It ain't. Price projections are based on straightforward adoption and usage of something that could be potentially incredibly useful.

The question is to what extent the rest of the world learns that it could be of use to them.

[painlord2k]

When you build your home on rocks (or math) it usually last more than the homes someone else built on sand (and trust).
It is not irrational to expect the homes built on sand and trust to be washed away from a flood (of water or fiat).

The fact a lot of people, here, believe in "to the moon" scenarios is heavily compensated by the fact outside of here a much, much larger group of people do not believe it and believe in "ponzi" scenarios.

Currently there are probably less than a couple of millions of users.
1/3500 people worldwide.

of these, just a small minority really believe in 1 M$/BTC (in today purchasing power).

[Paashaas]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

Because those ppl are seeing the bigger picture and are long-term holders. Cant youre brain accept the power of Bitcoin?

You stay at ignored.

[spazzdla]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

[dgarcia]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

I really appreciate your postings but don't you think you are overestimating the influence of the bitcointalk-board? I think this board, and particularly, the shouting crowd of uber-perma-bulls just as perma-bear-trolls has an vanishingly small impact on the price movements or the long term future of bitcoin.

Uber-perma-bulls buying 0.5 BTC to get rich same day or perma-bear-trolls selling 0.25 before the end of bitcoin....

...an ignorable factor ;-)

[traderCJ]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

That and a few thousand years of gold hoarding tradition.  Until un-backed fiat came into vogue, everything was settled in physical or 1:1 gold notes.  Bitcoin has 6 years of hoarding tradition?  And an unlimited number of cryptos can be propped up to spar with Bitcoin?  I'd say tread lightly.  The landscape will be totally different in 5 years, and I'm not confident Bitcoin will remain on top in the crypto world, let alone the physical world.

[IIOII]

It has the potential to reach $100K - even in today's purchasing power. Question is, if Bitcoin can realize this potential.

That is not sure at all: Bitcoin could die without prior notice due to technical problems. Or a better competitor could emerge and draw people away from bitcoin. - Just to name two potential threats to the $100K prediction.

Nobody can foresee the future. Just keep on using Bitcoin and watch what happens next.

[Raystonn]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

That and a few thousand years of gold hoarding tradition.  Until un-backed fiat came into vogue, everything was settled in physical or 1:1 gold notes.  Bitcoin has 6 years of hoarding tradition?  And an unlimited number of cryptos can be propped up to spar with Bitcoin?  I'd say tread lightly.  The landscape will be totally different in 5 years, and I'm not confident Bitcoin will remain on top in the crypto world, let alone the physical world.

A large number of rare materials can be propped up to spar with gold; silver for example.  What keeps gold on top?

[blatchcorn]

I believe

[traderCJ]

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

That and a few thousand years of gold hoarding tradition.  Until un-backed fiat came into vogue, everything was settled in physical or 1:1 gold notes.  Bitcoin has 6 years of hoarding tradition?  And an unlimited number of cryptos can be propped up to spar with Bitcoin?  I'd say tread lightly.  The landscape will be totally different in 5 years, and I'm not confident Bitcoin will remain on top in the crypto world, let alone the physical world.

A large number of rare materials can be propped up to spar with gold; silver for example.  What keeps gold on top?

Simple.  Gold melts at a relatively low temperature.  It is appropriately scarce for a currency, unlike elements like iron and iridium.  It does not tarnish (even silver tarnishes).  It is malleable.  It is generally non-toxic.  If you read up on the chemistry of gold, you'll realize how valuable it is and why people have chosen it as a store of value above all else for millennia.  Cryptos have a wealth of features traditional currencies do not, but are truly the epitome of faith-based value, much like fiat currencies.  A lot of us have gotten very lucky dabbling with Bitcoin as a store of value, but the true value of Bitcoin is in the protocol and network backing it, not the ledger entries.  Most of the people here have missed the boat and are praying for a new surge of money so they can dump.  The truth is, it really makes no difference what currency (physical or otherwise) one uses to conduct business, provided the protocol is sound.  Doesn't matter whether its scraps of garbage, seashells, gold coins, Bitcoins, Darkcoins, whatever .. so long as the basic requirements of a currency are met.  Quite arbitrary.  Trade accordingly.

[piramida]

Simple.  Gold melts at a relatively low temperature.  It is appropriately scarce for a currency, unlike elements like iron and iridium.  It does not tarnish (even silver tarnishes).  It is malleable.  It is generally non-toxic.  If you read up on the chemistry of gold, you'll realize how valuable it is and why people have chosen it as a store of value above all else for millennia.

Theres nothing chemically special about gold. But yes, the fact that it does not oxidize (as does titanium) and you can melt it on regular fire, plus that you don't need any special knowledge to extract it's pure form, and above all, that it is shiny pretty - defined it's role I think.

[TERA]

I understand the power of bitcoin (based on today's state of affairs and today's fundemantals in 2014) and I understand that not all of bitcoin's potential users have been reached. However, my statements aren't really about market sentiment analysis or forum sentiment. They are about the attitude I've been told that I'm supposed to have, and how this conflicts with my own sentiment as an investor.

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin. I just get to sit back and watch it grow - next year it'll be 10x, the year after that it will be 100x, and then a year later it will be 1000x - it's a destiny and it's 100% guaranteed to be fulfilled... this does not compute.

First of all, it's too easy. I'm just supposed to sit on coins and don't have to do anything. Bitcoin also doesn't need to do much either - it just stays as exactly what it is maybe some minor code fixes here and there. You're basically sitting on a commodity (Warren Buffet hates this). Most truly good investments involve a company that is making drastic improvements to itself and it's products or the investors themselves are doing something. Just sitting on a commodity is too easy. It also makes one wonder about the nature of the other investors who are sitting on a commodity - they are all mostly in it to do nothing and sit on a commodity to make profit, and are doing nothing for Bitcoin - they would probably dump really easily if the right conditions were met.

Second of all, this destiny thing does not compute to me as an investor. Nothing is that certain, or guaranteed. Some kind of hurdle is going to show up, some wall will be hit, or some new thing is going to be revealed, some X-factor. It always happens. Every great investment is a new paradigm, until it isn't. A trend has held for 5 whole years and you feel elated over the information you have in 2014... but what about 2015? 2016? Something can always change - and often it does. Never let yourself get so psychologically carried away with your ideals that you forget about the nature of reality.

I'm not trying to be bearish, say that prices are going down, or that Bitcoin doesn't have a bright future from here. I'm just tryign to stay grounded in reality, and am saying that nothing is guaranteed, and $100,000 would be a fantastic accomplishment but is not a destiny.

[Bagatell]

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin.

How is this different to the situation with gold?

[TERA]

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin.

How is this different to the situation with gold?

It's not, and I'm not advocating gold and an investment for value growth. Since you asked though, gold does have a couple differences from Bitcoin - it has thousands of years of history behind it and is less likely to suffer from a catastrophic failure than Bitcoin. However, this is irrelevant to the discussion.

[oda.krell]

I understand the power of bitcoin (based on today's state of affairs and today's fundemantals in 2014) and I understand that not all of bitcoin's potential users have been reached. However, my statements aren't really about market sentiment analysis or forum sentiment. They are about the attitude I've been told that I'm supposed to have, and how this conflicts with my own sentiment as an investor.

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin. I just get to sit back and watch it grow - next year it'll be 10x, the year after that it will be 100x, and then a year later it will be 1000x - it's a destiny and it's 100% guaranteed to be fulfilled... this does not compute.

First of all, it's too easy. I'm just supposed to sit on coins and don't have to do anything. Bitcoin also doesn't need to do much either - it just stays as exactly what it is maybe some minor code fixes here and there. You're basically sitting on a commodity (Warren Buffet hates this). Most truly good investments involve a company that is making drastic improvements to itself and it's products or the investors themselves are doing something. Just sitting on a commodity is too easy. It also makes one wonder about the nature of the other investors who are sitting on a commodity - they are all mostly in it to do nothing and sit on a commodity to make profit, and are doing nothing for Bitcoin - they would probably dump really easily if the right conditions were met.

Second of all, this destiny thing does not compute to me as an investor. Nothing is that certain, or guaranteed. Some kind of hurdle is going to show up, some wall will be hit, or some new thing is going to be revealed, some X-factor. It always happens. Every great investment is a new paradigm, until it isn't. A trend has held for 5 whole years and you feel elated over the information you have in 2014... but what about 2015? 2016? Something can always change - and often it does. Never let yourself get so psychologically carried away with your ideals that you forget about the nature of reality.

I'm not trying to be bearish, say that prices are going down, or that Bitcoin doesn't have a bright future from here. I'm just tryign to stay grounded in reality, and am saying that nothing is guaranteed, and $100,000 would be a fantastic accomplishment but is not a destiny.

Great summary. Trolls will hate on it, but let them.

Reminds me of this old xkcd on Bayesian priors:





Take home message: the absolutely unforeseen can of course happen. "Every thing that happens regularly had to happen for a first time." ... Just don't bet too much on it happening during your life time :)

[h3speros]

I understand the power of bitcoin (based on today's state of affairs and today's fundemantals in 2014) and I understand that not all of bitcoin's potential users have been reached. However, my statements aren't really about market sentiment analysis or forum sentiment. They are about the attitude I've been told that I'm supposed to have, and how this conflicts with my own sentiment as an investor.

Someone gives me a commodity investment with really good fundamentals (well as of today in 2014 at least) and tells me that due these fundmanentals ,a destiny has been obtained. That's it. I don't have to do anything. The investment doesn't have to do anything (except reach more users). No real effort has to be imparted at all by myself or bitcoin. I just get to sit back and watch it grow - next year it'll be 10x, the year after that it will be 100x, and then a year later it will be 1000x - it's a destiny and it's 100% guaranteed to be fulfilled... this does not compute.

First of all, it's too easy. I'm just supposed to sit on coins and don't have to do anything. Bitcoin also doesn't need to do much either - it just stays as exactly what it is maybe some minor code fixes here and there. You're basically sitting on a commodity (Warren Buffet hates this). Most truly good investments involve a company that is making drastic improvements to itself and it's products or the investors themselves are doing something. Just sitting on a commodity is too easy. It also makes one wonder about the nature of the other investors who are sitting on a commodity - they are all mostly in it to do nothing and sit on a commodity to make profit, and are doing nothing for Bitcoin - they would probably dump really easily if the right conditions were met.

Second of all, this destiny thing does not compute to me as an investor. Nothing is that certain, or guaranteed. Some kind of hurdle is going to show up, some wall will be hit, or some new thing is going to be revealed, some X-factor. It always happens. Every great investment is a new paradigm, until it isn't. A trend has held for 5 whole years and you feel elated over the information you have in 2014... but what about 2015? 2016? Something can always change - and often it does. Never let yourself get so psychologically carried away with your ideals that you forget about the nature of reality.

I'm not trying to be bearish, say that prices are going down, or that Bitcoin doesn't have a bright future from here. I'm just tryign to stay grounded in reality, and am saying that nothing is guaranteed, and $100,000 would be a fantastic accomplishment but is not a destiny.

I have not much to say about this, it's pretty decent post about the situation, but this bold one... Of course it can be that "easy". That's the power of capital in right place, good investors "just" sit their money on right address and that's it! And this is completely different thing than what improvements has to be made in that investment and investor doesn't necessarily have to do none of these things. This is how money works in our world. I'm not saying that it's right or wrong, just trying to describe power structures.

[oda.krell]

I have not much to say about this, it's pretty decent post about the situation, but this bold one... Of course it can be that "easy". That's the power of capital in right place, good investors "just" sit their money on right address and that's it! And this is completely different thing than what improvements has to be made in that investment and investor doesn't necessarily have to do none of these things. This is how money works in our world. I'm not saying that it's right or wrong, just trying to describe power structures.

Valid point.

But you realize that you take the example of capital gains in the existing "power structures", apply it to an emerging, even competing power structure (Bitcoin), and throw in an order of magnitude or two higher return rates for good measure.

Not saying it's impossible, but chances are, it will go exactly as smoothly as you'd expect given the description above.

[h3speros]

I have not much to say about this, it's pretty decent post about the situation, but this bold one... Of course it can be that "easy". That's the power of capital in right place, good investors "just" sit their money on right address and that's it! And this is completely different thing than what improvements has to be made in that investment and investor doesn't necessarily have to do none of these things. This is how money works in our world. I'm not saying that it's right or wrong, just trying to describe power structures.

Valid point.

But you realize that you take the example of capital gains in the existing "power structures", apply it to an emerging, even competing power structure (Bitcoin), and throw in an order of magnitude or two higher return rates for good measure.

Not saying it's impossible, but chances are, it will go exactly as smoothly as you'd expect given the description above.

I'm not sure that bitcoin will radically change how money works in this example, in investing. Maybe bitcoin will change the in-balance of who has money, because you can't print it anymore, but in "bitcoinland" you will still need money to make things happen.

I'm not saying that bitcoin is definitely good investment where you should sit your money, just that it sure can be and then it would be that "easy".

(There has been some investments in fiat world too that has had very good return rates, in that sense bitcoin is nothing new.)

(Quote marks are there, because it's not necessarily that easy to just keep your money example in bitcoin.)

[Ibian]

Why are we still discussing if supply and demand works the way we all know it does? I mean I would like for 2+2 to equal 5, it's a nice number and it looks better, but I don't go around telling people who claim that 2+2=4 that they are wrong and that things can always change.