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Title: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 11:36:39 AM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through
1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Lauda on August 01, 2014, 11:41:04 AM Interesting read here. I'm pretty sure that this is possible, credit cards can be a pain I rather use Bitcoin.
This is just a matter of time. CCs were invented in the '50s right? So it took them quite some time for this level of adoption. We are in the age of technology now, so Bitcoin should/will spread at a much faster pace. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: lepirate on August 01, 2014, 11:42:11 AM Seems reasonable. Can't wait for that to happen! :D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 11:45:44 AM Interesting read here. I'm pretty sure that this is possible, credit cards can be a pain I rather use Bitcoin. This is just a matter of time. CCs were invented in the '50s right? So it took them quite some time for this level of adoption. We are in the age of technology now, so Bitcoin should/will spread at a much faster pace. Yes, and look at the next step of credit cards in the USA. I just found and posted this today too: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720088.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720088.0) Credit cards are only going to become more and more expensive. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: SOAD on August 01, 2014, 11:56:38 AM It's still speculation / wishful thinking at the end of the day. 1% is a bigger number than you might think so $5000 is quite a while away if it ever comes/
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: nope491 on August 01, 2014, 12:01:36 PM Someone says 1 million $ per bitcoin, some other says 100.000$, all in all the future seems bright :D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Welsh on August 01, 2014, 12:02:50 PM It's still speculation / wishful thinking at the end of the day. 1% is a bigger number than you might think so $5000 is quite a while away if it ever comes/ 0.1% is still quite a reasonable way away (we don't want to get there anytime soon anyway) but, it's a realistic number to aim for considering the price of everything will continue to go up, for example charges on credit cards and other such services. Bitcoin is the way to go and more and more people are talking about it. Welcome to the next revolution. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bananaControl on August 01, 2014, 12:05:33 PM If you are wrong, I will be very, very disappointed with you!
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Baitty on August 01, 2014, 12:20:21 PM So it is not to late to get involved in Bitcoin? Great! Now go tell that to all the newbies who keep on asking the same questions.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Lauda on August 01, 2014, 12:30:29 PM Interesting read here. I'm pretty sure that this is possible, credit cards can be a pain I rather use Bitcoin. This is just a matter of time. CCs were invented in the '50s right? So it took them quite some time for this level of adoption. We are in the age of technology now, so Bitcoin should/will spread at a much faster pace. Yes, and look at the next step of credit cards in the USA. I just found and posted this today too: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720088.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720088.0) Credit cards are only going to become more and more expensive. The first and last time that I used WU or any similar service to transfer money took me 1/4 of the money sent as a fee. With bitcoin it would have just been the transaction fee which is 0.0001 i.e. a few cents. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 12:56:52 PM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: runam0k on August 01, 2014, 01:03:45 PM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;DTitle: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 01, 2014, 01:05:10 PM It would be nice to see it rise like that....I am skeptical mainly because I am involved now...When I first started on Bitcoin prices were around $800 dollars. Highest I have seen since then is around $650.
So, if Bitcoin fails we can blame me:0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bitkilo on August 01, 2014, 01:07:48 PM I can't predict the future but i think $500000 per btc is wishful thinking, i really hope your right but theres a long way to go yet. It will probably be back at $1000 by end of year then slowly rise more i think. 2018 or something like that it may be worth $10000 if we're lucky but nobody really knows. I like your post though, keep it up. :)
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Puberty on August 01, 2014, 01:09:28 PM But... Bitcoin only had three bubbles. First bubble was back in June 2011 when it reached $33. Next one was in April 2013 when it reached $265. Last one was in November 2013 when it reached $1,200.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: spazzdla on August 01, 2014, 01:11:14 PM I love your thinking we will be free from the grips of the Royal 13 in the future. Alas you underestimate what they will do to never lose their power... samson will be their final move.. :S.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 01:12:42 PM The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change.
x = $500,000 per BTC Sure, but in 50 years $500,000 may only buy you a cup of coffee As the value of the USD falls, we use less power. f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras This is very hard to predict and is only a total guess on my part. If the fees per hour are less, we use less power. c = $0.10 per kWh This is bound to go up due to inflation and peak oil/coal/natural gas production over the next 50 years. As this goes up, we will use less power. g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin I have no idea, in fact miners may average less than a 10% gross profit margin. If this is higher, say 20%, we use less power. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 01:15:17 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years.
But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: SpontaneousDream on August 01, 2014, 01:18:46 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. $5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 01:20:47 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 01:21:08 PM The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change. You are correct for acknowledging the many known unknowns and potential unknown unknowns, thus I reject this one comment: So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight.... Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: vpitcher07 on August 01, 2014, 01:24:21 PM I certainly hope you're right! However I feel like the way you're jumping to this conclusion of 500,000 a btc is a bit too simplistic. There are many other factors involved in price besides worldwide adoption. Regulation, mining, human nature (which is unpredictable) and possible problems involved with bitcoin that have yet to be discovered. It's not totally unreasonable to see 500,000 a coin at some point but I don't see it anytime in the near future. Maybe 30 years from now but we also have to take into effect the rate of inflation. What will $1 buy us in 30 years? I love the bullish outlook on bitcoin but I think you're just a bit too bullish. Just my 2 bits though. I hope I'm very very wrong :)
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: iluvpie60 on August 01, 2014, 01:28:03 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin produces $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. The problem with most peoples "math" on this subject is that they assume to many things as a constant and that these things all "line up" with each other and "will" happen. It is all fine and dandy to claim if "X" happens then "Y" will follow and the price will be "Z". If the world actually worked like that all the time there would be a lot more people who are rich, but there isn't that many rich people. The other problem is the liquidity of it all. BTC won't be spent once it starts going higher and higher. If it really ever reaches 10K you will see hoarding like you wouldn't believe, the people who got in early will obviously get out of it at that point for the most part, you would legitimately be crazy not to. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. The other "issue" is that every single payment processor will go broke if this happens. You have to think about it like this. They have to now buy bitcoins for 500k for a full bitcoin in your example, what happens if bitcoin goes down by 80,000 USD in a week? they are going to have so much f-ing risk its not gonna be funny. You need to think about this in more ways than what some theoretical math comes out. The other problem people fall into is saying that BTC must be worth X because of how much Y there is in total USD. No, it doesn't have to be like that and does not directly work that way. Most of the volume is just people trading back and forth on exchanges and not buying real items. GDP is not trading back and forth on exchanges, it is Gross Domestic Product, which DOES NOT have stock trading factored into it. It is Revenue - cost dude. Equating GDP to stocks is wrong. Equating stocks to BTC is right. Therefore equating GDP to BTC is wrong. #themoreyouknow Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 01:49:27 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. $5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 01:52:38 PM I certainly hope you're right! However I feel like the way you're jumping to this conclusion of 500,000 a btc is a bit too simplistic. There are many other factors involved in price besides worldwide adoption. Regulation, mining, human nature (which is unpredictable) and possible problems involved with bitcoin that have yet to be discovered. It's not totally unreasonable to see 500,000 a coin at some point but I don't see it anytime in the near future. Maybe 30 years from now but we also have to take into effect the rate of inflation. What will $1 buy us in 30 years? I love the bullish outlook on bitcoin but I think you're just a bit too bullish. Just my 2 bits though. I hope I'm very very wrong :) Yes it will take some time. I don't think it will happen overnight. I think 20-30 years is about right to see something like half a million dollars per btc.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Leina on August 01, 2014, 01:58:02 PM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.
Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 02:00:31 PM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Good job. You won't regret it. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. I got my own mother to buy 15 bitcoins over the past year. She is going to be sitting pretty in 5 years. (and don't worry, I secured them for her) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Ron~Popeil on August 01, 2014, 02:09:18 PM It is fun to speculate on this stuff. I think the next meteoric rise is still a bit off in the future. The longer it takes the more we can all accumulate.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 01, 2014, 02:11:29 PM I mean you can "math" all you want.
But realistically You have no idea what will happen just as much as we have no idea:) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 02:18:11 PM You have no idea what will happen just as much as we have no idea:) Outside of a black swan event we are fairly sure a bubble will occur in 2015 due to the block halving in 2016. The markets will anticipate the demand in advance and price accordingly. Bitcoin bubbles typically have been 7-10 times gains followed by a crash. So I predict at minimum 6k bubble that will crash to 3 k support by mid to late 2015 as the most conservative estimate. If demand is strong there will should be another bubble after the block halving in 2016 sending bitcoin from an estimate of 3k to 20-30k followed by a crash to around 10-15k support. No one should be taking profits before 2016 if they understand the principles of supply and demand. Anyone who believes in Bitcoin longterm should be investing 100% of their disposable income for the next year into bitcoin. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 01, 2014, 02:24:25 PM Outside of a black swan event we are fairly sure a bubble will occur in 2015 due to the block halving in 2016. Bubbles typically have been 7-10 times gains followed by a crash. So I predict at minimum 6k bubble that crashed to 3 k support by mid 2015 as the most conservative estimate. No one should be taking profits before 2016 if they understand the principles of supply and demand. This is true...however we have no idea what could happen before then. I mean, Something amazing could come along and completely destroy bitcoin to be worth nothing. More things could crash like gox and make it so unstable that it just plummets... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: inBitweTrust on August 01, 2014, 02:33:58 PM This is true...however we have no idea what could happen before then. I mean, Something amazing could come along and completely destroy bitcoin to be worth nothing. More things could crash like gox and make it so unstable that it just plummets... Unlikely, because of first movers advantage, the ability of Bitcoin to incorporate new features if needed, the network effect, and the reality that if Bitcoin fails it will question the credibility of any other decentralized crypto-currency. Bitcoin is too big to fail in the best possible way so we should jump in and make sure it stays pure and used as originally intended by Satoshi. but.... they call it a "black swan event" for a reason..... My philosophy is I don't care about the potential risks of a black swan event because my motivations are far beyond investment and mainly ethical and philosophical in nature. This may initially seem to be unwise and irrational when it comes to investing but is also precisely the reason bitcoin will succeed: Their are many of us that believe in it and will not allow it to fail. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Beliathon on August 01, 2014, 02:44:35 PM Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Puberty on August 01, 2014, 02:48:22 PM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: hodap on August 01, 2014, 03:03:35 PM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. Yes. By the power of induction, 5-10M per coin is within reach in 2-5 years. Don't forget the cost of mining will go up exponentially. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 01, 2014, 03:23:56 PM My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses :D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 05:13:47 PM My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses :D I think that is considerably less than we will be seeing. If you believe Bitcoin is going to continue on, then it will have to get much higher to accomodate all the people that will be getting in. We have like 0.01% market adoption if that. C'mon, think big and look at the big picture! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Beliathon on August 01, 2014, 05:18:57 PM Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. People smarter than you, mostly. ;DThe lottery is a tax for people who are bad at math and pattern recognition. Bitcoin is a gift to people with exceptional pattern recognition skills. If only you had met me in 2011, I would've explained this reality to you. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Lauda on August 01, 2014, 05:19:31 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: kingama on August 01, 2014, 05:31:32 PM A $500k bitcoin means being a billionaire takes only 2000 btc and a millionaire.?.. lol
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinDiver on August 01, 2014, 05:35:02 PM More importantly, what kind of transaction volume can the protocol currently handle?
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: 2double0 on August 01, 2014, 05:37:05 PM Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2140.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinDiver on August 01, 2014, 05:50:29 PM Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2028. FTFY Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Possum577 on August 01, 2014, 05:58:10 PM For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Where's the math or logic that makes this statement true? Price isn't purely based on supply, it has to also be based on demand. And if supply increases and demand doesn't increase with it prices are not going to grow as quickly as you suspect. I love the sentiment but I don't see any math her to prove your assumptions...it's still just your hunch, guess, hope. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 01, 2014, 06:04:37 PM My guess is that Bitcoin may reach $5,000 but not much more than that. And Bitcoin may go down to $500 but not much lower than that. <-- wild guesses :D I think that is considerably less than we will be seeing. If you believe Bitcoin is going to continue on, then it will have to get much higher to accomodate all the people that will be getting in. We have like 0.01% market adoption if that. C'mon, think big and look at the big picture! Ok, I'm going to be honest here and claim that Bitcoin is only a pilot project. A very impressive technology being tested as a proof of concept and as a means of gathering statistics. Previously I believed that the NSA may have been the inventor of Bitcoin. Now I have changed my mind. Bitcoin is probably an IBM project or something like that. Deep conspiracy stuff. :D And from that perspective Bitcoin was never meant to replace the ordinary fiat currencies. This means that "they" will only allow Bitcoin to go so far, say up to $5,000. I propose that it's a mistake to believe that Bitcoin just happened to be invented as some fluke inspiration of a real person named Satoshi Nakamoto. There are big deliberate powers behind Bitcoin. That's my guess at the moment. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Possum577 on August 01, 2014, 06:10:05 PM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world How does increased prices of BTC per USD increase the amount of power required to mine? The amount of effort required to mine isn't based on price but rather the amount of blocks that have been mined alredy...the price is meaningless. Or, what am I missing? Thanks. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: colinistheman on August 01, 2014, 06:20:31 PM Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2140. 12 million instead of 20 million due to number of lost coins at the end of 20 years is my guess. That, or it was a typo and he meant "21" but typed "12" instead.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Meuh6879 on August 01, 2014, 06:29:26 PM Why did you state there are only 12 million, there will be over 20 million in CIRCULATION by 2028. FTFY 2032 for 99% of bitcoin emit (mined). Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: haploid23 on August 01, 2014, 07:41:55 PM Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. Yes but however, bitcoin is still for the privileged. A large chunk of the world population is in poverty, barely enough food to survive. They don't even have computers/internet. Technically speaking, bitcoin does not reject anyone, however not everyone will be able to access it. Cash is still king for these people. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: moriartybitcoin on August 01, 2014, 07:44:25 PM I think $500k/coin would not happen because if the market grows that big, other altcoins will drain market share.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Yeezus on August 01, 2014, 07:46:43 PM I think $500k/coin would not happen because if the market grows that big, other altcoins will drain market share. Why would people use other alts? People will only flock to alt coins if you can actually spend them anywhere which is what is currently holding back most alts at the moment. They're just gimmicks without merchants behind them. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: slaveforanunnak1 on August 01, 2014, 07:48:03 PM The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change. You are correct for acknowledging the many known unknowns and potential unknown unknowns, thus I reject this one comment: So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight.... Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters? That's exactly what i was thinking! Let bitcoin be the engine behind solar cell technology! those Obama hand-outs didn't do shit! Thanks obama! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: slaveforanunnak1 on August 01, 2014, 07:54:04 PM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world How does increased prices of BTC per USD increase the amount of power required to mine? The amount of effort required to mine isn't based on price but rather the amount of blocks that have been mined alredy...the price is meaningless. Or, what am I missing? Thanks. I think what he is saying is this: currently each btc is about 600 bucks! Thats the reason I'm about to stop mining. I think i've reached my ROI for my miners and at this price they are just wasting power. Might as well just buy the BTCs. however, if the BTC was fucking half a mil, guess what?? i'll be starting my miners back up again, and so will everyone and their moms. Then the total power used to mine btc will reach astronomic amounts. Unless, we can use solar cells, or some other form of reusable energy + ASICs to mine. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 07:54:09 PM There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight.... Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters? You seem to think that technology and/or efficiency figure in to the system power consumption formula. They do not. It does not matter how efficient the miners become, it does not matter if the ASICs get smaller/better/faster/cheaper. Most importantly it does not matter where you get the power from, assuming the same cost. If you are assuming that printable solar cells are going to bring the average cost of power down under my $0.10 per KWh estimate then that would allow the Bitcoin network to use even more power than the estimate given. If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given. By design the amount of power consumed is directly propotional to the average amount of USD available per block (subsidy + fees) as show in the formula given above. Within an era the power consumed is proportional to the price. If the price goes from $500/BTC to a sustained $5,000 per BTC the amount of power consumed by the network will rise to about 10x the former amount independent of efficiency and technology used. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 08:04:41 PM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world How does increased prices of BTC per USD increase the amount of power required to mine? The amount of effort required to mine isn't based on price but rather the amount of blocks that have been mined alredy...the price is meaningless. Or, what am I missing? Thanks. I think what he is saying is this: currently each btc is about 600 bucks! Thats the reason I'm about to stop mining. I think i've reached my ROI for my miners and at this price they are just wasting power. Might as well just buy the BTCs. however, if the BTC was fucking half a mil, guess what?? i'll be starting my miners back up again, and so will everyone and their moms. Then the total power used to mine btc will reach astronomic amounts. Unless, we can use solar cells, or some other form of reusable energy + ASICs to mine. Details here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: johnyj on August 01, 2014, 11:04:26 PM There is a central authority forcing people to use fiat money, giving them to people as salary, and the economy behind it grows (Not the other way round: the economy grows and need more fiat money. you always first get money and then setup project to hire people). If they stop giving out fiat money, the economy will shrink
For bitcoin it is very different, if no central authority is giving out bitcoin as salary, there will be very limited bitcoin spending, thus the bitcoin economy won't grow quickly You can't take the size of a fiat money economy and apply it to bitcoin. The bitcoin economy only grows at remittance and long term saving area Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 01, 2014, 11:16:27 PM There is a central authority forcing people to use fiat money, giving them to people as salary, and the economy behind it grows (Not the other way round: the economy grows and need more fiat money. you always first get money and then setup project to hire people). If they stop giving out fiat money, the economy will shrink Agree!For bitcoin it is very different, if no central authority is giving out bitcoin as salary, there will be very limited bitcoin spending, thus the bitcoin economy won't grow quickly You can't take the size of a fiat money economy and apply it to bitcoin. The bitcoin economy only grows at remittance and long term saving area The way I look at it is that inflationary fiat is designed to be spent, it punishes savers and pumps up the consumer driven consumption oriented economy we currently have. People have very little incentive to keep it so they spend it on a whim on anything or everything they think they want. Bitcoin is the opposite of government/central bank issued fiat currency in every way. For the purposes here the difference it that it rewards and encourages saving. People have every incentive to save BTC and will only spend it on things they must have, things they need. If everyone spent only on what they needed as opposed to what they wanted everything on this planet would change. Everything. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: beetcoin on August 01, 2014, 11:26:23 PM There is a central authority forcing people to use fiat money, giving them to people as salary, and the economy behind it grows (Not the other way round: the economy grows and need more fiat money. you always first get money and then setup project to hire people). If they stop giving out fiat money, the economy will shrink For bitcoin it is very different, if no central authority is giving out bitcoin as salary, there will be very limited bitcoin spending, thus the bitcoin economy won't grow quickly You can't take the size of a fiat money economy and apply it to bitcoin. The bitcoin economy only grows at remittance and long term saving area btw, did you hear about overstock paying their employees in bitcoin? well, not salary but bonuses. i can see other companies like dell or newegg following suit. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: taylortyler on August 02, 2014, 12:46:04 AM This post made me smile and feel all warm and fuzzy inside. And 2033 is fine with me for $500,000 a piece ;)
And the great thing about the decentralized cryptocurrency revolution is that it will spark a fee additional revolutions by itself....all of which will involve removing the power from the ruling elite and putting it back into the hands of the people. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: gelar24 on August 02, 2014, 12:58:30 AM It's still speculation / wishful thinking at the end of the day. 1% is a bigger number than you might think so $5000 is quite a while away if it ever comes/ yes actually it is still speculation, so hopefully correct at least $ 5,000 or $ 1,000 that was enough :) I have had also the end of each year definitely improved, I reflect on the year previous year Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinRocka on August 02, 2014, 01:35:01 AM "IF" bitcoin does succeed my belief is that mass adoption will happen very soon < 2 years and the price will absolutely skyrocket. 6 figures per in 2-3 yrs time. 8)
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Light on August 02, 2014, 02:04:12 AM It's very amusing to see all the people with a rather inflated sense of what is going to happen in the future. An increase in price in the comings years? Yes, I can agree with that. But an increase to half a million dollars per BTC in the near future? I'd really like to know what you've been smoking. I personally think we're going to have an exponential decay in growth as time passes, none of this linear increase bull.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bigasic on August 02, 2014, 02:10:58 AM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world I would love if your prediction is correct, heck, Ill take close. Thats right about time for retirement. But, Id settle for 250k per coin, lol... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Victoo on August 02, 2014, 06:14:24 AM Interesting math. It is very possible as people are already cursing banks and looking for alternatives.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 02, 2014, 09:34:18 AM If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that.
The founder of Coinbase said that even though people mostly trade with bitcoins today as an investment there are incentives to use Bitcoin for shopping. He could be correct. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Silly Money on August 02, 2014, 09:43:51 AM If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that. I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bomb177 on August 02, 2014, 09:47:36 AM I love math, expecially when it says that the bitcoin will be valued so high :D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Mr Crabs on August 02, 2014, 09:51:57 AM I love math, expecially when it says that the bitcoin will be valued so high :D Except this isn't really based on any solid math, just speculation. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 02, 2014, 09:55:51 AM If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that. I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon. If Amazon would accept Bitcoin without people using it, sure that wouldn't do much. If Amazon was forced to accept Bitcoin because of public pressure and demand, then that could get really interesting. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Ludi on August 02, 2014, 10:06:27 AM If big companies like Walmart and Amazon started to accept Bitcoin then maybe the value will go much above $5,000. It would be interesting if Bitcoin could force the big companies because of public demand. Another big boost would be Bitcoin in Google Wallet and things like that. I don't think the value would go up by that much unless many people start spending their coins on amazon. If Amazon would accept Bitcoin without people using it, sure that wouldn't do much. If Amazon was forced to accept Bitcoin because of public pressure and demand, then that could get really interesting. It'll be a long time if ever that they'll be 'forced' to accept it. Bitcoin is a long way off for weilding that sort of power, though maybe they could lose business to competition and lose out on the free advertising. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 02, 2014, 10:15:39 AM I will stick with my guess of about max $5,000 per bitcoin, but just for fun:
Let's say that Bitcoin becomes the dominating currency in the world with a 90% market share. "How much money exists on Earth? ... That figure is around $60 trillion." -- http://gizmodo.com/5995301/how-much-money-is-there-on-earth Price per bitcoin = 0.9 * 60x1012 / 21,000,000 = $2,570,000 ;D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: gondel on August 02, 2014, 10:20:55 AM Hi,
This sounds reasonable but for price like 5000-10000 per coin. Half a million for one BTC is like in year 2200 :D Yeah sure when you are grandpa you will tell to your kids the story about BTC in your young days, but be more realistic now :D We will see even a price drop the next weeks so hold. BR Gondel Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: romerun on August 02, 2014, 10:32:38 AM To stick with reality, 50k per coin is the sane boundary, beyond that, bitcoin marketcap would be 1T+ where the government territory is. Although it's possible, but I can't really imagine what the world would be when that happens.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jgragons on August 02, 2014, 10:44:59 AM ok, 700,000 BTC were stolen from MTGox. So are they actually spendable by the hacker or are they now just lost to the world. I can understand wallets being encrypted, but why aren't individual BTC encrypted with the owners private key so that a stolen BTC is worthless unless the owner unencrypts it first.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Beyonce on August 02, 2014, 10:45:22 AM To stick with reality, 50k per coin is the sane boundary, beyond that, bitcoin marketcap would be 1T+ where the government territory is. Although it's possible, but I can't really imagine what the world would be when that happens. What do you mean by the bolded part? ??? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: cryptworld on August 02, 2014, 11:55:34 AM I like that price
but I don't see it a possible price Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: TYT on August 02, 2014, 12:05:19 PM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;Dme too lol, imo 100k before 2020. Bitcoin probably wont even be around by that time. Something similar but improved will have probably taken over. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2014, 12:36:59 PM ok, 700,000 BTC were stolen from MTGox. So are they actually spendable by the hacker or are they now just lost to the world. I can understand wallets being encrypted, but why aren't individual BTC encrypted with the owners private key so that a stolen BTC is worthless unless the owner unencrypts it first. That is how it works. Nobody can steal your BTC unless they get your private key so they can "decrypt" it so they can spend it. If you keep your private keys safe then your BTC are safe. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2014, 12:40:11 PM The math was ripped off from Dr Sol Adoni's bitcoin book You and your dozens of alts are comic idiots. Sol Adoni must translate to "drooling mental case"http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B00M7DM6I2/ref=redir_mdp_mobile His book is way less money on his site www.bitcoinalgorithm.com Oh bitcoin is a cia project Nakamoto means central or middle Satoshi means intellegence Nakamoto satoshi Central intelligence So you need to refer to your bitcoin as AdoniCIACOIN Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 02, 2014, 01:45:09 PM I have felt a little envy of those who have invested a lot in Bitcoin early. And if one bitcoin would be worth $500,000 then many people may feel bad because they didn't or couldn't invest early. I have changed my mind about that and would be interested in having Bitcoin become huge even if I myself hadn't invested in Bitcoin. I'm curious to find out if Bitcoin is the new mammal that will survive while the dinosaur fiat currencies die out.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: efreeti on August 02, 2014, 02:27:22 PM I have felt a little envy of those who have invested a lot in Bitcoin early. And if one bitcoin would be worth $500,000 then many people may feel bad because they didn't or couldn't invest early. I have changed my mind about that and would be interested in having Bitcoin become huge even if I myself hadn't invested in Bitcoin. I'm curious to find out if Bitcoin is the new mammal that will survive while the dinosaur fiat currencies die out. Many holders are throwing out a big number because they only own 1-3 coins. It is unlikely that bitcoin can reach that high. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: teodor87 on August 02, 2014, 03:48:12 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. And all this is based on what? Your wishes? Get real. If bitcoin does not become centralized it has only theoretical value, because there is no real currency backing it up. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bananaControl on August 02, 2014, 03:52:22 PM $500,000 per bitcoin?
That's nowhere near enough man - this is much better: http://www.bitcoindigest.com/reviews/maximum-bitcoin-price-how-high-can-bitcoin-go/ (http://www.bitcoindigest.com/reviews/maximum-bitcoin-price-how-high-can-bitcoin-go/) $3 Million! Now we're talking! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Yakamoto on August 02, 2014, 03:55:05 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. And all this is based on what? Your wishes? Get real. If bitcoin does not become centralized it has only theoretical value, because there is no real currency backing it up. It has plenty of value, being backed means nothing. Fiat isn't backed, and it still has value. What, should we peg the rate at $5,000,000,000 to one Bitcoin? Would that be enough of a backing for you? You are going to have a really hard time centralizing Bitcoin, and it will not be pegged to something until that happens. And the book the guy at the top of the page is talking about; he's a puppet, along with about 7 others. He's on drugs, and jerking his own ego to making Bitcoin "untrustable". Ignore him. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: teodor87 on August 02, 2014, 04:01:14 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. And all this is based on what? Your wishes? Get real. If bitcoin does not become centralized it has only theoretical value, because there is no real currency backing it up. It has plenty of value, being backed means nothing. Fiat isn't backed, and it still has value. What, should we peg the rate at $5,000,000,000 to one Bitcoin? Would that be enough of a backing for you? You are going to have a really hard time centralizing Bitcoin, and it will not be pegged to something until that happens. And the book the guy at the top of the page is talking about; he's a puppet, along with about 7 others. He's on drugs, and jerking his own ego to making Bitcoin "untrustable". Ignore him. First of all "market capitalization" and "market" are different things. Market capitalization is a fictional term. It's the value of all coins if sold at the same time and rate. The daily bitcoin MARKET (coins that are actually traded) is rarely above 40,000 which is 1/500 of the coins. And yet it's enough to drive prices to 1200$/btc. Real market of cryptos is 0,2 - 2% of the market capitalization, so even if BITCOIN was 500000$ the current daily market would be 20 billion. Same as on FOREX. The daily MARKET is 4 trillion, although world's economy is valued at 90. And yet ~5% of all the currency is enough to drive prices. Difference - fiat currency has lots of backup. Obligations, gold options, gold stock, gold bars, gold coins, silver, silver stock, silver options, government issued bonds etc. What backup does bitcoin have? None. If tomorrow people start selling price will go down to 0. Why? No backup. And electricity prices are not a real backup, because the electric companies couldn't care less if you mine bitcoins or not. They will not refund you if your BTCs lose value. That's for sure. At least bank deposits are insured upto 100,000EUR in the EU. Are bitcoins insured? No. They cannot be. No insurance company will ever insure bitcoins. For the aforementioned resons. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 02, 2014, 04:07:51 PM The math was ripped off from Dr Sol Adoni's bitcoin book GTFOH please. The math was created by Burt. Sol Adoni, please find another forum to troll/solicit/scam. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: eid on August 02, 2014, 04:31:37 PM The math was ripped off from Dr Sol Adoni's bitcoin book No need to complain since the OP was quoting (and gave credit to) your sock-puppet "domainbrokers". Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2014, 04:35:31 PM The math was ripped off from Dr Sol Adoni's bitcoin book No need to complain since the OP was quoting (and gave credit to) your sock-puppet "domainbrokers". And, as you said, the "math" supporting $500,000/BTC wasn't even ripped off anyway as full sock puppet credit was given in the OP. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2014, 04:39:20 PM I won't pay $50.00 for his book but I would pay $0.50 if we can find 100 others willing to split the cost with me.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Prez on August 02, 2014, 04:45:25 PM I won't pay $50.00 for his book but I would pay $0.50 if we can find 100 others willing to split the cost with me. .50 is still to much, lets get it for free! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2014, 04:47:07 PM I won't pay $50.00 for his book but I would pay $0.50 if we can find 100 others willing to split the cost with me. .50 is still to much, lets get it for free! Or, better yet, let's just post it somewhere and post the link here so everyone can read it. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 02, 2014, 05:50:28 PM The power consumption over the next 50 years is harder to predict than the price. There are many factors simplified above that could change. You are correct for acknowledging the many known unknowns and potential unknown unknowns, thus I reject this one comment: So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight.... Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters? That's exactly what i was thinking! Let bitcoin be the engine behind solar cell technology! those Obama hand-outs didn't do shit! Thanks obama! Yeah... must have been Obama... fuck!!!!! NOT Blaming Obama seems to be way too simple of an explanation for anything government related, and blaming him regarding a solar cell company... What????. (now blaming him for a bad joke or putting his pants on backwards may be another story.. :D). Regarding governmental issues, there are institutions and there are a variety of forces out there... causing and effecting... besides some simple blame-Obama scenario. ::) :P Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: TheNewAnon135246 on August 02, 2014, 06:39:36 PM I'd love to see this happening but I really doubt it. $5,000 is do-able but $500,000 is likely to ever happen.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2014, 02:25:48 AM I'd love to see this happening but I really doubt it. $5,000 is do-able but $500,000 is likely to ever happen. I have been thinking that $5K or $50K are possible in the next few years; however, $500K is some other level shit, and surely it is possible, but maybe like Burt W suggested, such a price may NOT be too sustainable for a lot of reasons or even feasible until something like 20 years from now.... and by then, who knows what the state of the crypto world is going to be... we may be in for some real surprises.. if we are so lucky to be living 20 years from now. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Yakamoto on August 03, 2014, 04:16:31 AM I'd love to see this happening but I really doubt it. $5,000 is do-able but $500,000 is likely to ever happen. I have been thinking that $5K or $50K are possible in the next few years; however, $500K is some other level shit, and surely it is possible, but maybe like Burt W suggested, such a price may NOT be too sustainable for a lot of reasons or even feasible until something like 20 years from now.... and by then, who knows what the state of the crypto world is going to be... we may be in for some real surprises.. if we are so lucky to be living 20 years from now. What happened to the colorful cities with hovercars and white-picket fences, and all your favorite shows and games at your fingertips? Did "The Walking Dead" skewer your view of a better tomorrow? I really don't understand what happened. Cold War era; colorful cities, fancy technology, etc. Today; dystopia up the wazoo. Is when we have war we think of a futuristic tomorrow, and when we have relative peace, we imagine the world going to sh!t? I may sounds naive, but these are my literal observations. They lived thinking about impending nuclear strikes, at any time, but they had a bright outlook. Now that we have that threat relatively gone, it's turned into... the apocalypse. Everyone wants to be the next king-pin, living on top a mountain of gold while hookers swirl around them, and cities burn on the horizon, with thugs constantly bringing in more and more loot... Wtf humanity. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Fair and Peace on August 03, 2014, 04:20:04 AM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. $5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on? i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 03, 2014, 05:06:45 AM i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't believe it will ever go that high...That would put too many people at an extremely wealthy level, and I don't think the government wants that to happen! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 03, 2014, 05:37:35 AM i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't believe it will ever go that high...That would put too many people at an extremely wealthy level, and I don't think the government wants that to happen! How so? You do realize there's millions of millionaires already right? The government cares about taxes. They don't give 2 rat shits if you've got money or not. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Fair and Peace on August 03, 2014, 05:57:01 AM i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't believe it will ever go that high...That would put too many people at an extremely wealthy level, and I don't think the government wants that to happen! yea agree and the richer more rich and when stopped mining . all bitcoin will death from free transaction. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Fair and Peace on August 03, 2014, 06:04:37 AM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. i curious to see this happend . its mean in begin of 2015 will something special :D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: btcguys on August 03, 2014, 06:08:38 AM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;Dif this is the case then it is better than IRA plan lol Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2014, 09:51:10 AM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. $5,000 in the next 6 months!? LOL. What planet are you living on? i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may Even projections of $10k in 5 or 10 years is extremely optimistic and a very good investment. Normal index fund stocks are usually projected to double in value in 10 to 12 years. So, if BTC is able to achieve another more than 10x appreciation in 5 to 10 years, those are very good value projections. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2014, 10:07:35 AM i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't believe it will ever go that high...That would put too many people at an extremely wealthy level, and I don't think the government wants that to happen! You may be correct with your instinct that there are status quo forces that do NOT want regular people getting rich and they do NOT want redistribution of wealth. I would NOT place those suspicions on the government - b/c the government is merely a vehicle that can be used by the people or by the rich... a problem, is frequently the government gets co-opted by status quo wealthy forces... but suggesting "the government wants" is a way of misunderstanding the forces at play... b/c the government is NOT inheritantly bad. Back to the substance of your comment: There remain wealthy and status quo forces that do NOT appreciate some of the redistribution of wealth that has already taken place through bitcoin. They do NOT have a choice , and they do NOT like it, but some redistribution of wealth has already taken place. Some of the newly wealthy through BTC are going to be able to hang onto their wealth, but others are NOT so smart or sophisticated to realize how to hang onto their newly acquired wealth or are NOT sufficiently omnipotent to know how to manage their newly acquired wealth. NONETHELESS there remains considerable potential for further redistribution of wealth for those who enjoy sufficient foresight to recognize the potential of bitcoin and to continue to invest in bitcoin while there remains considerable potential upside. In this regard, bitcoin is democratic and open to all to invest at whatever portion of their income is possible and accordingly, there will be little choice of the status quo and additional wealth is going to be redistributed to people who are able to HODL BTC in the coming years. Surely, there will be come wealthy that get on board and are able to manipulate the wealth distribution of BTC in their favor.. but still quite a few regular (and techy) people should be able to receive some of this BTC wealth redistribution... b/c I am thinking that it is still early days, and even if BTC does NOT go to $500K, it has a pretty decent chance to go to $10K and beyond in the fairly near future.... and the status quo financial institutions are likely NOT going to be able to stop it.. even though they will probably make some lame efforts to try to stop it. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Giggs on August 03, 2014, 10:41:52 AM $500,000 per Bitcoin is a ridiculous prediction. Wont get anywhere near unless bitcoin goes fully mainstream.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2014, 11:41:58 AM $500,000 per Bitcoin is a ridiculous prediction. Wont get anywhere near unless bitcoin goes fully mainstream. You are stating the obvious, and there is some kind of logical fallacy with your rational... (but I do NOT know the name for the logical fallacy.. NOT off the top of my head). Even $50K per bitcoin is going to make BTC pretty mainstream, and $500K per bitcoin is even more mainstream (10x more). You may be correct that $500K per bitcoin is a bit ridiculous to achieve - however, NOT for the reason that you stated b/c even at a much lower than $500k price, the assumption is that BTC becomes increasingly mainstream which causes it to increase in value (what people are willing to pay for it). Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: californiaquail on August 03, 2014, 11:55:44 AM $500,000 per Bitcoin is a ridiculous prediction. Wont get anywhere near unless bitcoin goes fully mainstream. Arguments here ?Anyways, i'll continue. i've read tons of topics from 2013 that predicted a 5000 bitcoin for summer 2014. It's quite sad, but i think the only way to achieve this, would be a second Cyprus bank run / government heist. Pretty sure if the euro or dollar collapses, maybe a 2008 like crisis, we could hit a 100k bitcoin in no time. Mainstream adoption will only come from an absence of choice, NOT enlighted decision ( thats us ;) ) in our case that absence of choice would be caused by a total collapse of trust in our financial system. You can waste your breath and educate people to bitcoin for as long as you wish, they won't use it globally unless they HAVE to, mark my words. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bitsmichel on August 03, 2014, 02:47:48 PM i believe it will touch 10.000 but not to 500.000 k and maybe need more year like 5 or 10 years again to touch it . because we know when diff gain price will gain. may As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't believe it will ever go that high...That would put too many people at an extremely wealthy level, and I don't think the government wants that to happen! How so? You do realize there's millions of millionaires already right? The government cares about taxes. They don't give 2 rat shits if you've got money or not. no, governments care about control, they can print money out of thin air, for now. yes but they can't print gold, silver or bitcoin. If they print too much it will become an valueless currency - and that has happened before in history. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bigasic on August 03, 2014, 02:52:38 PM If it were to get to 500k per coin, we would be selling micro amounts of coin.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: X7 on August 03, 2014, 05:00:01 PM We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,00 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world It is silly to assume that by such a date we would not have much more efficient ways of powering this technology with the vast amount of money which IS being and WILL be poured into the infrastructure of maintaining this epic ecosystem. 2/10 for effort Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 03, 2014, 05:27:03 PM I hope those who did the math included this:
"Combined with Moore's law, performance per watt would grow at roughly the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1–2 years." -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#Other_formulations_and_similar_laws Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 03, 2014, 05:47:19 PM It is silly to assume that by such a date we would not have much more efficient ways of powering this technology with the vast amount of money which IS being and WILL be poured into the infrastructure of maintaining this epic ecosystem. 2/10 for effort I hope those who did the math included this: Neither one of you saw or understood that mining efficiency does not matter when calculating the total power consumption of the Bitcoin Network."Combined with Moore's law, performance per watt would grow at roughly the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1–2 years." -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#Other_formulations_and_similar_laws Efficiency only affects total hash rate and difficulty, not power consumption. It is a given that mining hardware will become more efficient for the reasons you stated. However, more efficient mining hardware means that for a given amount of power the network will just produce a larger hash rate. When more efficient mining hardware hits the market miners will just buy more of it until they consume the same amount of power as before the more efficent mining hardware was on the market. The total power consumed by the network is only bounded by the amount of money available in each block to spend on power. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ironman80 on August 03, 2014, 11:08:45 PM I believe bitcoin has bright future (I must admit,I always loved science fiction movies)..You watched Star trek?...We all know about Einstain relativity...But in Star trek one believer invented warp drive (ability ship to fly faster than light speed)....I think being optimistic is very important in life,and bitcoin is our warp drive!...It will be hard the price of BTC to go "faster than light speed",but not immposible!...
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 03, 2014, 11:16:30 PM The government actually does care about how many wealthy people their are. Also as of right now it isn't exactly easy to tax bitcoins..So they don't want everyone getting free money with them getting nothing
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: hdbuck on August 03, 2014, 11:53:27 PM amen to OP :D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: onezerobit on August 04, 2014, 12:17:15 AM lets not get carried away.....even if that is possible, it is not gonna happen in less then a year.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 04, 2014, 12:32:46 AM even if that is possible, it is not gonna happen in less then a year. really? thanks captain obvious :P Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Houseman on August 04, 2014, 01:04:12 AM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible. Everyone will get their old miners back out and turn them on again ;-) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 04, 2014, 04:35:16 AM However, more efficient mining hardware means that for a given amount of power the network will just produce a larger hash rate. That's what my quote implies. There will be more computing power in the future for the same amount of power consumption as today. Quote When more efficient mining hardware hits the market miners will just buy more of it until they consume the same amount of power as before the more efficent mining hardware was on the market. Price/performance of computing roughly doubles every year. I'm not sure power consumption follows that same pace. The price is a combination of both the cost of the hardware and the cost of electricity (plus other factors). So I'm not sure the total power consumption of the Bitcoin miners together will remain constant over time. Quote The total power consumed by the network is only bounded by the amount of money available in each block to spend on power. Electricity cost plus the cost for the hardware and real estate etc, all of that has to be taken into consideration together. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Anders on August 04, 2014, 05:09:06 AM "The price at which he bought the rig is irrelevant to this decision. It’s a “sunk cost”." -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0
I don't think that's true. The miners will continuously have to buy new hardware since the price/performance of computing power doubles every year. Old hardware has to be replaced. And in addition there are costs for bandwidth and for maintenance, administration, rent of buildings etc. Only if the cost of electricity is much larger than all those other costs over time can the assumption in the quote be valid. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: littlewizard on August 04, 2014, 05:27:48 AM I think it is possible for this prediction, as long as the mass adoption of Bitcoin slowly advances.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 04, 2014, 07:18:29 AM "The price at which he bought the rig is irrelevant to this decision. It’s a “sunk cost”." -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 I don't think that's true. The miners will continuously have to buy new hardware since the price/performance of computing power doubles every year. Old hardware has to be replaced. And in addition there are costs for bandwidth and for maintenance, administration, rent of buildings etc. Only if the cost of electricity is much larger than all those other costs over time can the assumption in the quote be valid. Better to approach this from the opposite direction. The least efficient miners (and only the least efficient miners) will approximately break even, meaning they are spending their share of the rewards on electricity. As long as there is a range of efficiencies of miners, then electricity usage does not equal block rewards. The simplistic model of electricity usage equal to rewards implies a cessation of ASIC R&D. That is not happening any time soon. EDIT: Two additional points 1. If we use a simple model of most efficient miners using zero electricity and the least efficient using all of the block reward, and further assume that the distribution is linear, then approximately half the block rewards to go electricity. In reality the least efficient do not use zero, but the distribution is probably biased toward more efficient miners, so these two assumptions cancel out to some extent. Half may be a reasonable estimate. That does not substantially impair the argument that $500K bitcoin is implausible until the reward is lower. 2. Where the argument does break down is if the dollar drops in value as BTC increases relative to the dollar (i.e. $/kwh significantly increases). Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: go1111111 on August 04, 2014, 10:24:53 AM So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. The flaw in this analysis is that it assumes each Bitcoin will only be spent once per year, on average. Or in other words it assumes Bitcoin velocity is 1. The velocity of USD is about 10. So if Bitcoin has the same velocity as USD, that makes it $50k per bitcoin. However one advantage of bitcoins is that they can move around faster than dollars through the existing banking system. Velocity could be a lot higher with Bitcoin. If it's 100, then that's only $5k per bitcoin. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: icet208 on August 04, 2014, 02:11:32 PM nice OP dude. Hope that you`r right:D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ensurance982 on August 04, 2014, 02:30:49 PM Yeah, it seems so easy. Things may be even sweeter if you consider that a market capitalization isn't directly reflecting the total worth of a single bitcoin. A single bitcoin may be worth a lot more due to the market's demand and supply - which really decides about a bitcoin's worth.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 04, 2014, 02:55:23 PM So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. The flaw in this analysis is that it assumes each Bitcoin will only be spent once per year, on average. Or in other words it assumes Bitcoin velocity is 1. The velocity of USD is about 10. So if Bitcoin has the same velocity as USD, that makes it $50k per bitcoin. However one advantage of bitcoins is that they can move around faster than dollars through the existing banking system. Velocity could be a lot higher with Bitcoin. If it's 100, then that's only $5k per bitcoin. are you sure? can you explain why it wouldn't be velocity 10 instead of 1? if we are talking about 10% of the world money supply it should have 10% of the value given the same velocity. Also there is no reason to believe Bitcoin will have a true "higher velocity" than other forms of money. Sure, the transaction happens faster, but that doesn't mean people are buying more often. If anything, people should be spending less because of deflation/appreciation. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: db on August 04, 2014, 03:36:14 PM ASIC space heaters? If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given. Yes, but it wouldn't be wasted. Say resistor wire with built-in mining hardware costs about the same as regular resistor wire and that 6% of electricity production goes to heating. Then all those 6% (instead of 3%) would be used for mining. No other mining would take place as it would be highly unprofitable. More power would be used for mining but used efficiently and at no cost to society. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: vuduchyld on August 04, 2014, 03:56:03 PM The massive flaw in this alleged "math" is that it is tied to GWP. That is clear and utter nonsense.
Bitcoin would be more analogous to money supply, likely M2. Of course, the adoption rates are also plucked out of thin air. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: labsbitforum on August 04, 2014, 05:44:27 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) The Digital Revolution and subsequent Information Age will be considered a transformation era every bit as significant as the Industrial Revolution and Neolithic Revolution. But... Why are you so sure that Bitcoin will be a long term success in the digital currency space? Things evolve over time and its rare that the early versions or leaders in a space survive at all. Some examples off the top of my head. My Space, AOL, Napster, Blockbuster, Netscape, Xerox, IBM... At one time all of those companies were the champions of their space but its normally the case that as things evolve they are not able to maintain that position. Normally someone comes along with a version 2.0 that is so much better everyone moves on to that. Then a different company comes out with 3.0 that causes another industry shift and so on. The company that did the 1.0 version becomes a footnote to history. Bitcoin has very serious scalability issues. It is increasingly less decentralized. It does not have strong leadership or a lot of re-development happening to address core problems with its long term viability. Most likely it will be replaced by something else in the not too distant future... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 04, 2014, 05:47:09 PM Most likely it will be replaced by something else in the not too distant future... So... Which alt are you pumping? ;) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Bagatell on August 04, 2014, 05:53:23 PM Some examples off the top of my head. My Space, AOL, Napster, Blockbuster, Netscape, Xerox, IBM... Those are brands and companies that built on underlying technologies. Those technologies are still with us. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: FUR11 on August 04, 2014, 05:54:27 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Wow that really sounds like a dream. But it's backed by some calculations, and even they seem pretty pessimistic if Bitcoin should really lift off! Man, I should put some more money into it. This has to take off soon! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: siggy on August 04, 2014, 05:56:25 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) The Digital Revolution and subsequent Information Age will be considered a transformation era every bit as significant as the Industrial Revolution and Neolithic Revolution. But... Why are you so sure that Bitcoin will be a long term success in the digital currency space? Things evolve over time and its rare that the early versions or leaders in a space survive at all. Some examples off the top of my head. My Space, AOL, Napster, Blockbuster, Netscape, Xerox, IBM... At one time all of those companies were the champions of their space but its normally the case that as things evolve they are not able to maintain that position. Normally someone comes along with a version 2.0 that is so much better everyone moves on to that. Then a different company comes out with 3.0 that causes another industry shift and so on. The company that did the 1.0 version becomes a footnote to history. Bitcoin has very serious scalability issues. It is increasingly less decentralized. It does not have strong leadership or a lot of re-development happening to address core problems with its long term viability. Most likely it will be replaced by something else in the not too distant future... Every example you have listed above is a company ( or company like) ... or maybe more apropriately a "thing" .. Bitcoin is more of a protocol, and in my view, protocols are much more resiliant with "first mover advantage" .. think more like: TCP/IP, HTTP, FTP, SMTP ... While all of these have somewhat evolved over the years, the current incarnations are still very much like the originals, and built up from the originals. If BTC hasn't already hit critical mass with the first mover advantage, it isn't far off. And with a protocol, once critical mass has hit, it is nearly impossible to replace it with a new (even if better) non-compatable protocol. Sigg Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: labsbitforum on August 04, 2014, 06:31:16 PM Every example you have listed above is a company ( or company like) ... or maybe more apropriately a "thing" .. Bitcoin is more of a protocol, and in my view, protocols are much more resiliant with "first mover advantage" .. think more like: TCP/IP, HTTP, FTP, SMTP ... While all of these have somewhat evolved over the years, the current incarnations are still very much like the originals, and built up from the originals. If BTC hasn't already hit critical mass with the first mover advantage, it isn't far off. And with a protocol, once critical mass has hit, it is nearly impossible to replace it with a new (even if better) non-compatable protocol. Sigg Your right bitcoin is a lot like a protocol. The Internet suite protocols examples you gave are all things that grew out of the formation of the internet by DARPA, IAB, IETF, W3C etc. Bitcoin is a disruptive entrant that is more similar file sharing protocols than it is to the governmental and academic bodies that created those protocols. File/music sharing protocols and the entities behind them have evolved considerably. Napster Gnutella, eDonkey2000, Freenet Kazaa Limewire Bittorrent I think digital currency will evolve just as everything else has. Bitcoin = 1.0 Something else will be 2.0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinDiver on August 04, 2014, 06:35:14 PM File/music sharing protocols and the entities behind them have evolved considerably. Napster Gnutella, eDonkey2000, Freenet Kazaa Limewire Bittorrent I think digital currency will evolve just as everything else has. Bitcoin = 1.0 Something else will be 2.0 Sounds fine, but what did any uses have invested in those technologies? Nothing, or close to nothing. Not the case with bitcoin. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ThatDGuy on August 04, 2014, 06:38:56 PM File/music sharing protocols and the entities behind them have evolved considerably. Napster Gnutella, eDonkey2000, Freenet Kazaa Limewire Bittorrent I think digital currency will evolve just as everything else has. Bitcoin = 1.0 Something else will be 2.0 Sounds fine, but what did any uses have invested in those technologies? Nothing, or close to nothing. Not the case with bitcoin. This is an extremely important point. If an individual has a lot invested in Bitcoin, they also have a vested interest in seeing that specific protocol's infrastructure strengthened. This is very different from an individual user of Napster, Kazaa, Limewire, and slightly different from a user of Bittorrent. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Benjig on August 04, 2014, 07:09:34 PM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible. Everyone will get their old miners back out and turn them on again ;-) This cant happen, even if the price is 10 k per bitcoin, old miners like gpus or usb will not make roi in years. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: siggy on August 04, 2014, 07:19:53 PM Everyone will get their old miners back out and turn them on again ;-) This cant happen, even if the price is 10 k per bitcoin, old miners like gpus or usb will not make roi in years. ROI has nothing to do with it.. once a miner is purchased, that is a sunk cost. Once you have it, the only thing that matters is operating costs (electricity, mostly) .. So long as bitcoins returned are greater than current operating cost, the miners will be turned on. It makes no difference that it will never make ROI. At this point, it is about reducing losses, not making a profit. Sigg Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: labsbitforum on August 04, 2014, 07:48:13 PM File/music sharing protocols and the entities behind them have evolved considerably. Napster Gnutella, eDonkey2000, Freenet Kazaa Limewire Bittorrent I think digital currency will evolve just as everything else has. Bitcoin = 1.0 Something else will be 2.0 Sounds fine, but what did any uses have invested in those technologies? Nothing, or close to nothing. Not the case with bitcoin. This is an extremely important point. If an individual has a lot invested in Bitcoin, they also have a vested interest in seeing that specific protocol's infrastructure strengthened. This is very different from an individual user of Napster, Kazaa, Limewire, and slightly different from a user of Bittorrent. Agreed. File/music/movie sharing for the most part are hack0rz and tech savvy people that are just trying to avoid paying for stuff and don't have a lot invested in it financially. While not identical I would argue its more similar to bitcoin than say the TCP standard developed more than 40 years ago by DARPA. People in this forum tend to have a lot invested in bitcoin but the average person out there does not. I'm not pumping any alt. They are all scams. The few legitimate attempts I've seen to get a true decentralized P2P distributed digital payment system in place don't seem to have any traction or adoption. If there is a serious collapse in bitcoin I would expect one of those to bloom. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BitchicksHusband on August 04, 2014, 08:33:03 PM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. Don't beat yourself up. It was very, VERY hard to buy bitcoin in 2011. You pretty much had to find a miner to deal with directly. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Mobius on August 05, 2014, 06:42:31 AM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Wow that really sounds like a dream. But it's backed by some calculations, and even they seem pretty pessimistic if Bitcoin should really lift off! Man, I should put some more money into it. This has to take off soon! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 05, 2014, 06:45:58 AM The OP does not use any facts to support why bitcoin would be such a large part of the global economy. I personally think that bitcoin will be successful over the long term but I don't think it will ever reach reserve currency status which would essentially be needed to reach these numbers. There are other ways to get close. For example, replacing gold as a store of value gets to about $100K. That likely wouldn't happen for decades though. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: piramida on August 05, 2014, 10:23:45 AM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. Don't beat yourself up. It was very, VERY hard to buy bitcoin in 2011. You pretty much had to find a miner to deal with directly. or go to gox of course :) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Bittings on August 05, 2014, 11:23:21 AM A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream. Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end. If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today. Don't beat yourself up. It was very, VERY hard to buy bitcoin in 2011. You pretty much had to find a miner to deal with directly. or go to gox of course :) It was quite simple for me: Bank Account -> Dwolla -> Gox Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on August 05, 2014, 12:57:17 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. The math behind this is so bad...You are basically saying Bitcoin is 100% dependent on how many people use it and not how much they spend on it. With the price fluxating from 650-400 we must be having a lot of people "stop" using it and then "start using it very quickly all of the time... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: giveBTCpls on August 05, 2014, 06:27:50 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinDiver on August 05, 2014, 08:23:33 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. eBay = PayPal Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DannyElfman on August 05, 2014, 08:25:07 PM I think you overestimate the network growth speed. That said, that price is very much liekly, but not in your timeframe!
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: scryptasicminer on August 05, 2014, 08:25:16 PM How soon till 500,000?
5 to 10 years are good enough for me. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Possum577 on August 05, 2014, 08:26:02 PM To say "there are no other ways" to do something almost certainly confirms that there are...let's get some data together!
The OP does not use any facts to support why bitcoin would be such a large part of the global economy. I personally think that bitcoin will be successful over the long term but I don't think it will ever reach reserve currency status which would essentially be needed to reach these numbers. There are other ways to get close. For example, replacing gold as a store of value gets to about $100K. That likely wouldn't happen for decades though. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Possum577 on August 05, 2014, 08:26:47 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: CoinDiver on August 05, 2014, 08:49:46 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 05, 2014, 08:53:20 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand. Laziness and convenience would increase holding much more than that. If you get $30 worth of BTC for an item on ebay you probably just hold it, especially if there are plenty of places to spend BTC. You are probably not going to worry about exchange rate risk on $30. Ebay traders are not miners. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ThatDGuy on August 05, 2014, 08:55:27 PM You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand. This is correct. Also if we eventually get to the point where Bitcoin is usable as payment for almost everything and there are advantages financially for the spender choosing to use it over, say Paypal or a credit card, then it follows that most people would want to hold on to a certain amount of Bitcoin to use for spending purposes. It stands to reason that Bitcoin offers advantages in certain situations for the consumer as well as the supplier as a payment method over Paypal/CC. If that propagates out, there is an increased demand and the supply of Bitcoin - which is finite - never changes. The value would have to go up. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: findftp on August 05, 2014, 09:33:50 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Possum577 on August 05, 2014, 09:58:48 PM The net result of that transaction is neither increase or decrease. It's a wash!
In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. eBay BTC acceptance is good for greater adoption but that doesn't lead to "6 figure clouds" price per BTC (in USD.) There's no correlation. There WOULD be correlation if the Winklevoss boys get there investment fund going. You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DannyElfman on August 05, 2014, 10:02:00 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bigasic on August 05, 2014, 10:04:42 PM If it even gets close to 100k in my life time, I will be thrilled.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: findftp on August 05, 2014, 10:49:51 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund. I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper. I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled. I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DannyElfman on August 05, 2014, 10:52:45 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund. I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper. I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled. I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill. That is a rather radical point of view. I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: findftp on August 05, 2014, 11:00:07 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund. I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper. I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled. I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill. That is a rather radical point of view. I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either? I don't hate companies! I hate the empty promises made by stockbrokers. Because you don't own the stocks which you think you own. The day that stock ownership is hard-coded in the bitcoin blockchain I'm all in! (well, not exactly all-in, but you get my point) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DannyElfman on August 05, 2014, 11:02:08 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund. I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper. I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled. I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill. That is a rather radical point of view. I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either? I don't hate companies! I hate the empty promises made by stockbrokers. Because you don't own the stocks which you think you own. The day that stock ownership is hard-coded in the bitcoin blockchain I'm all in! (well, not exactly all-in, but you get my point) Oh, well, that is a perfectly fine reason. At this moment you could literally walk into a small business convention and invest into small cap firms directly ;) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Window2Wall on August 05, 2014, 11:17:10 PM <snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life. <snip> Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan! God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate. You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper. If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc. If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above. I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund. I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper. I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled. I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill. That is a rather radical point of view. I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either? I don't hate companies! I hate the empty promises made by stockbrokers. Because you don't own the stocks which you think you own. The day that stock ownership is hard-coded in the bitcoin blockchain I'm all in! (well, not exactly all-in, but you get my point) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 05, 2014, 11:32:01 PM It isn't a wash for the reason explained earlier. During the period of time of the transaction and potentially for some time thereafter (if the conversion back isn't immediate) there is additional demand for Bitcoins. There are only a fixed number of bitcoins (about 13 million now). Imagine using BTC for payment on eBay (and elsewhere) becomes so popular that there are 13 million of these transactions in progress at any given time, and the average size of such a transaction is 1 BTC. That would tie up every single Bitcoin in existence. Because people want Bitcoins for other reasons, in reality what would have to happen is the price of BTC goes up so the average transaction size (in BTC) goes down so the number of Bitcoins tied up in this way also goes down.
The net result of that transaction is neither increase or decrease. It's a wash! In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. eBay BTC acceptance is good for greater adoption but that doesn't lead to "6 figure clouds" price per BTC (in USD.) There's no correlation. There WOULD be correlation if the Winklevoss boys get there investment fund going. You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees. How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin? You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: findftp on August 05, 2014, 11:46:00 PM Your ownership in stocks really is as secure as you need it to be. Having your trading record embedded into the blockchain really is overkill. There are enough regulatory and internal controls that you can be certain that your shares are safe (you always have the risk that the share values go down). No there are not. Don't just believe, do research Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: vervolioman on August 05, 2014, 11:55:13 PM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 06, 2014, 12:00:06 AM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... Mining is largely irrelevant at this stage. Even with cheap ASIC hardware the average Joe won't mine enough to care or matter. Good hardware wallets and getting paid in BTC would both be a fairly big deal. #2 is starting to happen. #3 is not even in sight. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: greaterfool on August 06, 2014, 12:24:40 AM It is silly to assume that by such a date we would not have much more efficient ways of powering this technology with the vast amount of money which IS being and WILL be poured into the infrastructure of maintaining this epic ecosystem. 2/10 for effort I hope those who did the math included this: Neither one of you saw or understood that mining efficiency does not matter when calculating the total power consumption of the Bitcoin Network."Combined with Moore's law, performance per watt would grow at roughly the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1–2 years." -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#Other_formulations_and_similar_laws Efficiency only affects total hash rate and difficulty, not power consumption. It is a given that mining hardware will become more efficient for the reasons you stated. However, more efficient mining hardware means that for a given amount of power the network will just produce a larger hash rate. When more efficient mining hardware hits the market miners will just buy more of it until they consume the same amount of power as before the more efficent mining hardware was on the market. The total power consumed by the network is only bounded by the amount of money available in each block to spend on power. Couple of things: 1) That assumes an even distribution of "most efficient" mining hardware, and that access to available power is uniformly distributed. Right? I don't think that's likely - and "When more efficient mining hardware hits the market miners will just buy more of it until they consume the same amount of power as before" is assuming that anyone can get their hands on the capital/BTC to keep upgrading, and that they'll never be told "nope, no more power for you" from the electric company. It's more likely that people who would be otherwise be spending lots on power will be able afford very efficient mining hardware that doesn't use much power, and the rest will use inefficient hardware and soak up as much power as they can get. I think this makes it hard to predict how much power consumption is for a certain target hash rate. At least I think that's true... check my logic please? 2) Morgan Stanley's just released a report re: Tesla and home solar, suggesting that available power will increase by 39GW a year through 2020. http://forms.greentechmedia.com/Extranet/95679/Morgan%20Stanley%20Solar%20Power%20&%20Energy%20Storage%20Blue%20Paper%20July%2029%202014.pdf So new power is coming online all the time apparently (Though if I'm right, then this means Russia / Saudi / China / some other major energy producer and user will have to a) replace their dependence on using and selling existing fuels with new technologies and b) shift a ton of their new surplus power straight to mining BTC... like, mining would have to happen on the nation-state or Google/Apple corporate level. We're not getting this much power from nerds with asics anymore, it's gotta be datacenters in remote cold locations where energy can be spent solely on mining and not on cooling...) If I were Putin I'd open a colo in Siberia and send 10% of Gazprom's reserves straight to it to power my ASIC farm /conspiracy ;) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 06, 2014, 12:48:00 AM Again, efficiency does not matter.
Look at it this way: Assume every block is worth $50,000. The amount of power that can be consumed to produce that block is $50,000 minus some overhead number (real estate, cost of hardware, labor, profit, etc.) The higher the price the more power can be consumed. Power consumption is directly proportional to price regardless of efficiency. The more efficiently the power is used the higher the hash rate and difficulty of the network can and will be. Efficiency drives difficulty and hash rate, price drives power consumption. Sure some miners are better situated (cheaper power, cheaper cooling, better hardware, etc.) so they are more profitable than other miners. This extra profit allows them to afford to buy even more hardware - pushing out the less efficient miners who will be losing money. As new hardware comes on line and old hardware is retired the power consumption remains proportional to price. Also, I am looking at the overall averages for the entire network and looking at estimating the power consumption of the entire network. Local variations do not matter when looking at overall averages. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: santaClause on August 06, 2014, 12:56:10 AM Your ownership in stocks really is as secure as you need it to be. Having your trading record embedded into the blockchain really is overkill. There are enough regulatory and internal controls that you can be certain that your shares are safe (you always have the risk that the share values go down). No there are not. Don't just believe, do research Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 06, 2014, 01:01:52 AM I think this makes it hard to predict how much power consumption is for a certain target hash rate. At least I think that's true... check my logic please? Kind of agree with you. I am saying that power consumption is a function of price. I never said that power consumption is a function of target hash rate. Efficiency is defined as the relationship between hash rate and power: Efficiency (Hashes/Joule) = (Hashes per second/Watts) there is nothing more to the relationship between power consumption and target hash rate. That relationship: (the system wide average number of hashes per second) / (the system wide average power consumption) is the system wide efficiency (Hashes/Joule or Hashes/kWh). Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on August 06, 2014, 01:08:40 AM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... Adding BTC to E-bay serves a lot of purposes. It increases awareness, it increases the number BTC circulated, it increases liquidity options, it increases the number of people holding BTC, and likely there are some other "increases" that I am forgetting at the moment... :D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 06, 2014, 01:21:10 AM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... 1. Pretty cheap and getting cheaper all the time - though not material to adoption in any way 2. Trezor (https://www.buytrezor.com) is very secure and $119. You may not consider this cheap but, of course, the price will drop over time. 3. Not quite there yet. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 06, 2014, 01:26:39 AM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... 1. Pretty cheap and getting cheaper all the time - though not material to adoption in any way 2. Trezor (https://www.buytrezor.com) is very secure and $119. You may not consider this cheap but, of course, the price will drop over time. 3. Not quite there yet. why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DannyElfman on August 06, 2014, 01:27:31 AM In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence. Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price. Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... 1. Pretty cheap and getting cheaper all the time - though not material to adoption in any way 2. Trezor (https://www.buytrezor.com) is very secure and $119. You may not consider this cheap but, of course, the price will drop over time. 3. Not quite there yet. why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? Not really, go to their github and read their code. Also they posted all their hardware specifications and builds. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 06, 2014, 01:29:46 AM why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? As stated above:Based on several publicly available and testable specifications (BIPs). All firmware is open source. All hardware is open souce. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 06, 2014, 01:31:49 AM why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? As stated above:Based on several publicly avaiable and testable BIPs. All firmware is open source. All hardware is open souce. But how do you know that you're getting what they say you are? (I guess the same could be said when you download an executable.) Does it come with its own RNG? Or do you import? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 06, 2014, 01:33:16 AM why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? As stated above:Based on several publicly avaiable and testable BIPs. All firmware is open source. All hardware is open souce. But how do you know that you're getting what they say you are? (I guess the same could be said when you download an executable.) Does it come with its own RNG? Or do you import? It has its own built in RNG. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 06, 2014, 01:35:44 AM why is trezor so secure in your opinion? isnt that hard to prove? As stated above:Based on several publicly avaiable and testable BIPs. All firmware is open source. All hardware is open souce. But how do you know that you're getting what they say you are? (I guess the same could be said when you download an executable.) Does it come with its own RNG? Or do you import? It has its own built in RNG. i think it would be cool if you could roll dice and input your own RN. also, i assume it doesnt have wifi or anything? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: greaterfool on August 06, 2014, 01:37:30 AM Again, efficiency does not matter. Look at it this way: Assume every block is worth $50,000. The amount of power that can be consumed to produce that block is $50,000 minus some overhead number (real estate, cost of hardware, labor, profit, etc.) The higher the price the more power can be consumed. Power consumption is directly proportional to price regardless of efficiency. The more efficiently the power is used the higher the hash rate and difficulty of the network can and will be. Efficiency drives difficulty and hash rate, price drives power consumption. Sure some miners are better situated (cheaper power, cheaper cooling, better hardware, etc.) so they are more profitable than other miners. This extra profit allows them to afford to buy even more hardware - pushing out the less efficient miners who will be losing money. As new hardware comes on line and old hardware is retired the power consumption remains proportional to price. Also, I am looking at the overall averages for the entire network and looking at estimating the power consumption of the entire network. Local variations do not matter when looking at overall averages. "Allows them to buy more hardware" and "necessarily leads them to spend all new profits into recycling and building more efficient hardware in a never-ending always forward moving cycle" are two different things. I agree that what you're proposing is a possible scenario, but not the most likely. We've seen this same scenario play out with the move from dedicated servers to multi-core virtualized cloud servers - the question people were asking with datacenters in 2007 was "how the hell are we gonna get enough power for this?!" and now in 2014 that question seems absurd. Purchasing, deploying, running, and managing the cap-ex and op-ex of all this new hardware at scale is *costly*. It's not frictionless in terms of time and effort. Having the money to buy new hardware and being able to do so are different things at scale. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 06, 2014, 02:02:19 AM Sure some miners are better situated (cheaper power, cheaper cooling, better hardware, etc.) so they are more profitable than other miners. You are assuming: 1. That supply of for example cheaper power (and other similar resources) is unlimited and instantly available 2. That supply of more efficient miners is unlmiited 3. That more efficient miners can be deployed instantly before even more efficient miners are developed. All of these are false. Looking at averages for the entire network is incorrect except in the static model where there are no constraints (time or quantity) on increasing capacity. Sure in that toy model the most efficient miner just instantly scales up to cover the entire network and then the averages do apply. This is also totally unrealistic. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Peter R on August 06, 2014, 07:12:33 AM 2. Trezor (https://www.buytrezor.com) is very secure and $119. You may not consider this cheap but, of course, the price will drop over time. My goal with sigsafe (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610453.0) was to make an extremely simple and low cost hardware wallet, that will have both low-security and high-security applications. The BOM cost is < $8 and could be further reduced. I don't think we will be launched until the winter, however. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: tucenaber on August 06, 2014, 10:07:45 AM If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. 0.675 TW / 20181 TW = 0.003% Quite a lot of energy but nowhere near world production ;) Got the units wrong. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 06, 2014, 10:17:09 AM If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. This seems wrong. The world electricity production 2008 was 20 181 TW according to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Primary_energy). 0.675 TW / 20181 TW = 0.003% Quite a lot of energy but nowhere near world production ;) That is TWh/year, not TW. Divide it by 365 day/year * 24 hour/day and his number was about right. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: tucenaber on August 06, 2014, 10:23:43 AM That is TWh/year, not TW. Divide it by 365 day/year * 24 hour/day and his number was about right. Right. Thank you. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Rakitich on August 06, 2014, 12:18:27 PM I've seen the math, and I like the math.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jubalix on July 06, 2015, 01:52:56 AM Yes, it will take a while to reach $50,000. Many years. But it will hit $5000 within the next 6 months. A sustained $5000/BTC price would drive mining to attempt to consume about 0.3% of world wide power production. That is a lot, but at least is it possible. How much does the banking sector consume of world power, eg servers, atms, branches, minting cash, credit cards etc etc. I think that BTC can repalce 50% to 10% of banking finance sector at least. The Banking sector must be at least 5% and so will consume about 5% of power. This 0.3% is ok. Also mining as heating will be a very good using in cold countries as the power will be already paid for. Having said that A POS such As Peercoin could take over at this point as it does not face the mining head wind Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: gusty on July 06, 2015, 02:31:27 AM i cant wait until btc reaches $1 million
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ammy009 on July 06, 2015, 12:05:36 PM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. I wanna believe your theory ;) but, I frankly say .... is it really possible ??? ;D :D :) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: AtheistAKASaneBrain on July 06, 2015, 01:17:58 PM It's perfectly possible, respectable individuals like the Xapo founder believe it so as well:
"In a video interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Casares says he’s not worried about bitcoin’s own volatility hampering its adoption – though he expects significant volatility over the next few years. He predicts that in a decade, one bitcoin will be worth somewhere between half a million dollars to one million dollars." http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ Of course, the dumb ass average Joes that cannot think outside the box and consider any prediction like that as insane, will never make it. They will always find excuses "Oh he's heavily invested, oh this Bitcoin thing will crash". It's what they want to believe so they don't have the risk of buying and holding, and the ones that already have coins will not be able to resist the urge to sell when we are back to 1K or so. The people that is going to make it big within the next decade are only the 1%, which is what makes such a big price possible, because there will be a massive redistribution of Bitcoins in each bubble-burst cycle. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Hyena on July 06, 2015, 01:33:13 PM I wanna believe your theory ;) but, I frankly say .... is it really possible ??? ;D :D :) Everything that is possible IS POSSIBLE. If it's not impossible, then it must be possible. Basic laws of the universe. Is it possible for you personally to get sick ass rich by holding bitcoins? Now that's separate question. Most of you bulls here fail to grab this once in a lifetime opportunity and GO ALL IN. You will get your profit as a nice lottery winning but that profit won't be significant. You don't have any time at all to test it out and see if you can double your 200 euro investment before investing a significant amount of fiat. If you hesitate, you are already a loser. The honey badger does not hesitate. It is your basic human right to become sick ass rich, now exercise that right. If we, the bulls, all honestly believe that we have every right in the world to be part of the greatest redistribution of wealth in the history of mankind, then this will happen. It's sorcery and our rulers have been doing this for centuries with their bizarre rituals (reptiles are very ritualistic). We, however, have been dumbed down by the mass media and education system to believe ridiculous shit such as that making career and working hard is the only socially acceptable path to prosperity and good life. If you go all in, you can be sure that you will be tested by the machine. The matrix tries to shake you out at all cost.
Such things happen only to break your will and play on your petty human emotions in the future, making it hard for you to buy in again. It is demotivating to lose your stash and this will filter out the majority of early adopters who subconsciously believed that they don't deserve to become a rich motherfucker. At the end of the day, it is your personal mindset and description of the world that will determine your monetary outcome. The system feeds on the energy you radiate with the emotions you express as you lose your stash and it will play all the nasty tricks on you to pump that energy out of you. You don't get rich by being so much better and smarter than everyone else. You get it by understanding how this universe really operates. The stuff they teach you at school is mostly deception. They even teach you wrong history, especially about the colonization of America (where the slaves came from, how America got its name, for example). Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: IIOII on July 06, 2015, 04:53:23 PM It's perfectly possible [...] It's not only possible, it's likely if Bitcoin doesn't fail. Bitcoin's value will be either zero or very very high. I don't think a scenario where Bitcoin continues to exist as a niche currency has a high probability, because its benefits are too disruptive. So either there is a systemic failure and Bitcoin is replaced by something better, or Bitcoin will conquer the whole economy. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on July 06, 2015, 05:26:15 PM "In a video interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Casares says he’s not worried about bitcoin’s own volatility hampering its adoption – though he expects significant volatility over the next few years. He predicts that in a decade, one bitcoin will be worth somewhere between half a million dollars to one million dollars." http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ Again, this is not possible or even desirable until maybe era 6 - unless the value of the dollar falls significantly. We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Oscilson on July 07, 2015, 03:17:36 PM If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So $500k price will not happen now. It could happen in 13 years, when the block reward is 1/16 of 25 bitcoin/block. The electricity cost of mining bitcoin is less than 2% of world electricity cost. The electricity is even lower if you include the building, salary and management cost. We also need to include the cost saving by removing some of the present banking service. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Elwar on July 07, 2015, 03:26:32 PM It will likely be $500,000 next week.
And I am willing to loan anyone 1 bitcoin now for only $100,000 as a down payment. Rock bottom interest of only 1% APR!!!! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: mattiadeabtc on July 07, 2015, 03:27:53 PM It will likely be $500,000 next week. And I am willing to loan anyone 1 bitcoin now for only $100,000 as a down payment. Rock bottom interest of only 1% APR!!!! Yeah bro, loan me 4 btc at 400,000 i have an island for collateral, LoL ;D ;D ;D ;D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: saturn643 on July 12, 2015, 04:12:18 PM It's perfectly possible, respectable individuals like the Xapo founder believe it so as well: Give it time, the main thing is to get more adoption, businesses, and people using it."In a video interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Casares says he’s not worried about bitcoin’s own volatility hampering its adoption – though he expects significant volatility over the next few years. He predicts that in a decade, one bitcoin will be worth somewhere between half a million dollars to one million dollars." http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ Of course, the dumb ass average Joes that cannot think outside the box and consider any prediction like that as insane, will never make it. They will always find excuses "Oh he's heavily invested, oh this Bitcoin thing will crash". It's what they want to believe so they don't have the risk of buying and holding, and the ones that already have coins will not be able to resist the urge to sell when we are back to 1K or so. The people that is going to make it big within the next decade are only the 1%, which is what makes such a big price possible, because there will be a massive redistribution of Bitcoins in each bubble-burst cycle. The price will take care of itself once Bitcoin is seen as viable to the masses. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: brg444 on July 12, 2015, 04:44:57 PM "In a video interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Casares says he’s not worried about bitcoin’s own volatility hampering its adoption – though he expects significant volatility over the next few years. He predicts that in a decade, one bitcoin will be worth somewhere between half a million dollars to one million dollars." http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ Again, this is not possible or even desirable until maybe era 6 - unless the value of the dollar falls significantly. We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world I won't be satisfied until 51% of the world's power is used to secure the Bitcoin network. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Oscilson on July 12, 2015, 08:14:18 PM I won't be satisfied until 51% of the world's power is used to secure the Bitcoin network. How much of world power is used to secure fiat by all the countries? We should also include the cost of police, army etc and convert that into electricity power. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: NorrisK on July 12, 2015, 08:52:01 PM I won't be satisfied until 51% of the world's power is used to secure the Bitcoin network. How much of world power is used to secure fiat by all the countries? We should also include the cost of police, army etc and convert that into electricity power. We could do that by counting the amount of donuts they eat, convert this into calories, which can then be calculated into Joules. This can then be compared to the electricity. Easy calculation right? :D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Oscilson on July 31, 2015, 05:05:46 AM I won't be satisfied until 51% of the world's power is used to secure the Bitcoin network. How much of world power is used to secure fiat by all the countries? We should also include the cost of police, army etc and convert that into electricity power. We could do that by counting the amount of donuts they eat, convert this into calories, which can then be calculated into Joules. This can then be compared to the electricity. Easy calculation right? :D Good point Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on July 31, 2015, 01:34:05 PM Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security. I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Miracal on August 01, 2015, 05:55:51 PM Your theory is very exciting, and I really wish that happens soon. I think there are certain social factors and economical factors in a few countries withing a few people which limit the accessibility of bitcoin. once that problem is overcome, there can be more concentration as to increasing use of bitcoin around us and educating about bitcoin to substantially multiply its use which will in the end benefit bitcoin users.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: oblivi on August 01, 2015, 10:44:35 PM Your theory is very exciting, and I really wish that happens soon. I think there are certain social factors and economical factors in a few countries withing a few people which limit the accessibility of bitcoin. once that problem is overcome, there can be more concentration as to increasing use of bitcoin around us and educating about bitcoin to substantially multiply its use which will in the end benefit bitcoin users. It's bound to happen sooner or later. All the indicators are aiming for a total fiat collapse and the scam will be finally unveiled. If we can get through the blocksize crisis thing and start planning things for the next 20 years to scale up the system we'll get there. Bitcoin is the only thing that can save us from failing into the same traps from the past, this is bigger than most here realize. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: NorrisK on August 02, 2015, 10:01:03 AM Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security. I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over. Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2015, 12:07:52 PM Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security. I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over. Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back? More information here: www.jmwagner.com www.burtw.com https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1086852.msg12026075#msg12026075 Or, an entire thread on the subject here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934268.0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ingiltere on August 02, 2015, 12:16:38 PM Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security. I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over. Glad to hear you got your coins back BurtW. I hope we can see thousand dollar coins in one year. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: NorrisK on August 02, 2015, 01:33:45 PM Got (most of) my Bitcoins back from Homeland Security. I would be happy with just $1,000 per BTC so I could pay all my legal fees and still have some left over. Where did they take your coins from? An exchange that they took offline? How long did it take to get it back? More information here: www.jmwagner.com www.burtw.com https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1086852.msg12026075#msg12026075 Or, an entire thread on the subject here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934268.0 Wow that is really insane.. When reading about this I am so happy I do not live in the USA with their patriot act shit.. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: OmegaStarScream on August 02, 2015, 01:48:01 PM Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest .
Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless . Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2015, 03:03:27 PM Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest . $50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet. So, I think not. Maybe in the next era or the one after that.Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless . You can see my calculations a few pages back, here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: OmegaStarScream on August 02, 2015, 03:09:49 PM Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest . $50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet. So, I think not. Maybe in the next era or the one after that.Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless . You can see my calculations a few pages back, here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635 First of all , welcome back I saw the topic that theymos made about you months ago so ... You said this (not sure if you meant 50k or actually 500k) : Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. In my opinion , that's more then perfect , I have now 18 years old so I guess I have time and I have no problem on waiting another 18 years if I will become rich but as I said maybe after 18 years that amount in USD won't have the same value as now at all . Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2015, 03:30:10 PM All are my estimates:
$500,000 in this era -> 30% of all electricity produced. $50,000 in this era -> 3% of all electricity produced. Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Also true. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2015, 03:36:34 PM Wow that is really insane.. When reading about this I am so happy I do not live in the USA with their patriot act shit.. For those that might be country shopping, what country do you live in? Does your government condone civil asset forfeitures? Does it allow US homeland security and FBI to raid citizens in your country - like New Zealand did/does?Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 02, 2015, 03:57:11 PM Interesting , It's probably possible to reach that price 50,000$ however we need to know when , when is what matters to be honest . $50,000 in this era would cause the mining to attempt to consume about 3% of all the electricity produced on the planet. So, I think not. Maybe in the next era or the one after that.Because if it takes too long then 50000$ won't worth anything by that time and it would be useless . You can see my calculations a few pages back, here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135635#msg8135635 3% of all electricity being used for Bitcoin is not really impossible or even necessarily undesirable. According to the article below, IT uses 10%. Is a very successful Bitcoin important and valuable enough to use 30% of IT's electricity (or alternately to increase IT incrementally from 10% to 13%)? I don't think the answer is obviously no. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/16/it_electricity_use_worse_than_you_thought/ Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 02, 2015, 04:14:01 PM 3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the realm of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: brg444 on August 02, 2015, 04:31:22 PM 3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is. I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come. Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption ;) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: farfiman on August 02, 2015, 04:48:02 PM 3% of power production ($50,000 per BTC) is within the real of possibility but I do not think $500,000 per BTC (30%) is. I happen to believe that Bitcoin mining is going to push hardware & energy efficiency technologies to the edges unlike anything out there. For that reason I see 500,000$ coming sooner than 2033 if it does come. Why not aim for 51% of energy consumption ;) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8141569#msg8141569 There definitely are physical restrictions with todays technology on the market cap of bitcoin but all of that can change overnight.... Printable solar cells with ASIC's? ASIC space heaters? You seem to think that technology and/or efficiency figure in to the system power consumption formula. They do not. It does not matter how efficient the miners become, it does not matter if the ASICs get smaller/better/faster/cheaper. Most importantly it does not matter where you get the power from, assuming the same cost. If you are assuming that printable solar cells are going to bring the average cost of power down under my $0.10 per KWh estimate then that would allow the Bitcoin network to use even more power than the estimate given. If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given. By design the amount of power consumed is directly propotional to the average amount of USD available per block (subsidy + fees) as show in the formula given above. Within an era the power consumed is proportional to the price. If the price goes from $500/BTC to a sustained $5,000 per BTC the amount of power consumed by the network will rise to about 10x the former amount independent of efficiency and technology used. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Ibian on August 02, 2015, 06:24:21 PM So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: farfiman on August 02, 2015, 06:44:26 PM So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it. I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ? And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it. Is it "worth it"? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: brg444 on August 02, 2015, 06:56:51 PM So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it. I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ? And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it. Is it "worth it"? If Bitcoin is the tool that will liberate humanity from dependence on centralized authorities then it most certainly is worth it. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Ibian on August 02, 2015, 07:13:46 PM So what if we use more power? It's all supply and demand, if it happens it will because it is worth it. I guess you have a magical system to increase worldwide energy production overnight ? And what does "worth it" mean? If a coin is worth 500K people will spend maybe 450K worth of energy to mine it. Is it "worth it"? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Marbit on August 03, 2015, 03:00:37 AM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;DLOL me too :D The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Cconvert2G36 on August 03, 2015, 03:16:08 AM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;DLOL me too :D The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency. Well, you don't see why. And grandma keeps asking me about cold storage for her savings... Costliest here we come! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: billyjoeallen on August 03, 2015, 03:37:39 AM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. It doesn't work like that. MV=PQ. If the number of transactions (velocity or "V") increase, it has the same effect as having more bitcoins (M). With mass adoption, there will many people thinking they have bitcoins, when really they only have bitcoin IOUs from some equivalent of a fractional reserve lender. M0 are the bitcoins mined and controlled by private keys, but if you buy something from Overstock.com with your coinbase account, nothing happens on the blockchain. Those are just credits and debits on coinbase's own ledger. best case scenario bitcoin will still never represent that large of a fraction of GWP. BUT, they may end up being worth half a million each if cryto helps grow the world economy enough, and that is unlikely but just may possibly happen. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: talkbitcoin on August 03, 2015, 03:58:35 AM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;DLOL me too :D The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency. it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: mattiadeabtc on August 03, 2015, 09:31:42 AM So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. $500k in 2033? I'll take that. I can be patient. ;DLOL me too :D The math seems good, the world increasingly wants to go virtual, I don't see why bitcoin can potentially be the costliest currency. it looks dreamy but i can't wait for the price to go that high! for sure i will send all when we touch 100.000$ per coin, i will be able to retire whit a good amount of money Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: AtheistAKASaneBrain on August 03, 2015, 10:26:59 AM http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/
The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: smooth on August 03, 2015, 10:50:07 AM http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business. 10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%. Plausible. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Andy4.4 on August 04, 2015, 05:20:57 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: randy8777 on August 04, 2015, 06:25:12 AM http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business. usually reasonable predictions have a 50% chance of getting right. but the price you are waiting for within 10 years is beyond reasonable and will never happen. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: lite on August 04, 2015, 07:23:21 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece. Island on Greece? I think as the price of Bitcoin increases the price of an island on Greece will increase exponentially. :P Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Fakhoury on August 04, 2015, 07:27:26 AM http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/04/02/bitcoin-price-to-1-million/ The guy from Xapo predicts 500 to 1 MM. I can definitely wait 10 years for that and be a happy man. I hope he is right, and his prediction is accurate. One doesn't make such predictions unless you aren't 100 convinced that it will happen, because making wrong predictions hurts your business and he has a Bitcoin business. 10 years means 3 more halvings, which means the 30% of global electricity estimated to be necessary for 500K today would be down to <4%. Plausible. Could you elaborate more on this please. Thank you. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Amph on August 04, 2015, 07:52:34 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece. when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Andy4.4 on August 04, 2015, 08:09:09 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece. when it will happen, if ever, everyone will hold onyl a tiny fraction of bitcoin, so at best you will have the same money as now, because everyone will sold long before that, this is the beauty fo bitcoin it's not like something like that can happen overnight, and every holder will have 500M in bitcoin or soemthing stupid, it does not work like that Thanks for enlightening me bro. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Hot Carl on August 04, 2015, 08:19:49 AM There's no way it would ever go to half a mill without pretty much worldwide adoption. Personally I'd be very happy with a few thousand but I think we will have to wait quite some time for even that.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Natalia_AnatolioPAMM on August 04, 2015, 08:53:44 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece. if this happens, there won't be enough islands for everyone Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: NorrisK on August 04, 2015, 09:24:58 AM If this happens then I'll also buy some islands on Greece. if this happens, there won't be enough islands for everyone The islands are pretty cheap nowadays because of the massive taxes Greece charges on owning a house on there. I guess the islands are pretty hard on the wallet at the moment, even if you have some decent bitcoin holdings at that price. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 04, 2015, 10:52:22 AM Could you elaborate more on this please. Thank you. We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world See also: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8135893#msg8135893 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8141569#msg8141569 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8168414#msg8168414 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720179.msg8206075#msg8206075 and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Warren Buffert on August 04, 2015, 04:48:31 PM So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 04, 2015, 06:22:18 PM So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here. maroons?Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ssmc2 on August 04, 2015, 06:24:14 PM So many weak minded people lost tons of money on bitcoin in 2014 because they didn't listen to me and riiiising. If you had parked your assets in stocks, bonds, and real estates like I warned, you'd be up probably 10% or more by now. Many maroons in here. maroons?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maroon_(people) Who knew? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Fakhoury on August 04, 2015, 06:37:28 PM Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind.
Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. 1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ? 2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: farting_shot on August 04, 2015, 07:52:00 PM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: farfiman on August 04, 2015, 07:58:00 PM Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind. Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. 1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ? 2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 1. What do you think will happen if bitcoin mining starts taking more and more power that isn't available? It isn't easy to grow power production that fast . Someone here gave the idea that it isn't a problem- they will just raise the price ( supply and demand). Unless they make a "special" higher price just for mining (not really possible) , the higher cost of energy will effect the price of practically everything! The reaction of the public will not let it happen. 2. In era 6 the amount of coins generated every day will be very small (about 112) so at 500K a coin we have $56M total reward a day. Depending on overhead and profit we can assume maybe the maximum use of "only" $50M worth of energy a day. 3. Who knows :) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Wolf Rainer on August 04, 2015, 08:19:42 PM We all can dream ;D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: dothebeats on August 04, 2015, 08:35:19 PM Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind. Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. 1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ? 2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 1. If the whole network consumes more than 2% of the world's power consumption, then you are asking for more demand of resources which is not feasible for the whole world itself. That's why power-efficient yet powerful chips should be invented as difficulty goes up so as to go on par with the current power consumption of the network. 2. Well as to what BurtW already explained on his post way back August 2014, we cannot use that insane amount of power in just a day to mine very few coins. 3. No one knows for certain. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 05, 2015, 04:17:32 AM 1. If the whole network consumes more than 2% of the world's power consumption, then you are asking for more demand of resources which is not feasible for the whole world itself. That's why power-efficient yet powerful chips should be invented as difficulty goes up so as to go on par with the current power consumption of the network. As I have explained many times efficiency does not enter into the equation. More efficient chips only means that there will be more hashes per second for a given energy consumption. Energy consumption is proportional to price. Efficiency does not matter.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: luciann on August 05, 2015, 04:41:30 AM Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind. Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. 1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ? 2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? what satoshi says about 20 years having either no volume or large volume kinda makes me scared lol. cause what if we dont see the volume we hope for to make this coin go up.. which is possible ya know? where would this volume come from too.. like how many more exchanges do we need to achieve this? or is it something we need more traditional sense that increases the volume? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Cconvert2G36 on August 05, 2015, 04:58:36 AM Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind. Quote So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. 1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ? 2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? 3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ? what satoshi says about 20 years having either no volume or large volume kinda makes me scared lol. cause what if we dont see the volume we hope for to make this coin go up.. which is possible ya know? where would this volume come from too.. like how many more exchanges do we need to achieve this? or is it something we need more traditional sense that increases the volume? In 20 years, bitcoin either needs huge transaction flow to pay miners with fees, or it shrinks down to hobbyist size (wrt miners, users, and price). There's not much in between. Meaning... you should think of long term bitcoin "investment" ending with a distinct possibility of either... a big fat louie ($0) or moon. Edit for luciann: It is definitely not lack of exchanges affecting bitcoin adoption. You don't just simply build more dealerships if you want to sell more cars. People have to want the cars first. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Oscilson on August 23, 2015, 01:30:13 PM 1. If the whole network consumes more than 2% of the world's power consumption, then you are asking for more demand of resources which is not feasible for the whole world itself. That's why power-efficient yet powerful chips should be invented as difficulty goes up so as to go on par with the current power consumption of the network. As I have explained many times efficiency does not enter into the equation. More efficient chips only means that there will be more hashes per second for a given energy consumption. Energy consumption is proportional to price. Efficiency does not matter.That is right. Power consumption is part of the total value of bitcoin. Power efficiency is not in the equation. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Shiver on August 23, 2015, 01:54:05 PM Efficiency isn't a factor if everybody has access to the same tech. If you have a computer and the rest of the world has a typewriter then you have an advantage, but if everyone has the same tools then it is irrelevant.
What I'm curious about is the stuff like Tesla battery/solar units, and if they're successful (I think even the first gen will be), then power consumption isn't a drain on the planets currently finite electricity. If it is the case that the price miners need to make to not want to sell is important whilst waiting for fees to replace coin generation, then the Tesla type stuff could change the formula. Perhaps someone will invent a new capacitor/battery to sink lightning for storage, who knows. There is a lot we don't know. Scarcity and adoption would be more important imho. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Monopoly on August 23, 2015, 01:57:25 PM For per transaction there is 10000 satoshi ...... so if BTB price be $500,000 you must pay $50 for per transaction ....
So your calculation is wrong at base ...... Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 23, 2015, 02:56:05 PM Efficiency isn't a factor if everybody has access to the same tech. If you have a computer and the rest of the world has a typewriter then you have an advantage, but if everyone has the same tools then it is irrelevant. Efficiency is a factor for everyone when it comes to profit or loss. If you have a computer (ASIC miner) and the rest of the world is using typewriters (GPU mining) then you will make a boatload more profit. On the other hand if everyone else has computers (ASIC miners) and you only have a typewriter (GPU miner) then you will lose money hand over fist and will be forced to shut down your mining operation (unless you like flushing money down the toilet).What I'm curious about is the stuff like Tesla battery/solar units, and if they're successful (I think even the first gen will be), then power consumption isn't a drain on the planets currently finite electricity. If it is the case that the price miners need to make to not want to sell is important whilst waiting for fees to replace coin generation, then the Tesla type stuff could change the formula. Perhaps someone will invent a new capacitor/battery to sink lightning for storage, who knows. There is a lot we don't know. How much electricity costs on average for all miners is in the equation for sure [see the equation]. How much a specific miner pays for their electricity will heavily affect their personal profit. If they pay less for their electricity then they will make more profit if they pay more they will either make less profit or, if their electricity is too expensive, they will lose money.What miners will naturally do is purchase the cheapest electricity possible. "Stuff like Tesla battery/solar units" are the most expensive possible electricity so no miner in their right (economic) mind will use that electrical source. Scarcity and adoption would be more important imho. Whatever drives the price up will also drive up the energy consumption - that is the point.For per transaction there is 10000 satoshi ...... so if BTB price be $500,000 you must pay $50 for per transaction .... You do know that the fee gets adjusted periodically right?So your calculation is wrong at base ...... If the price of BTC goes up considerably then the fee will get reduced. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: gentlemand on August 23, 2015, 03:43:46 PM For per transaction there is 10000 satoshi ...... so if BTB price be $500,000 you must pay $50 for per transaction .... So your calculation is wrong at base ...... Here's a totally crazy thought - things change. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Searing on August 24, 2015, 06:22:44 AM heh unless the core dev nerds and the bitcoin xt nerds come to some kinda consensus this looks less and less likely. its all about power over the bitcoin core software direction core devs drag feet on changes bitcoin xt devs want a coup de ta ......the egos could kill btc dead (hope I'm just being dramatic) but right now I'd settle for 1k coin in 5 years with the current drama Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: neochiny on August 24, 2015, 06:35:48 AM wow this is great thing and interesting.. this motivate us bitcoin users.. hope it will be really true in the future.. i will be looking forward to this... even i am old in that time.. :P
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: tonycamp on August 24, 2015, 07:32:48 AM march 2016 its the only possible gap for BTC to rise after christmas buyings and thats only to 300$ most now down to 200$
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Monopoly on August 24, 2015, 08:38:43 AM For per transaction there is 10000 satoshi ...... so if BTB price be $500,000 you must pay $50 for per transaction .... You do know that the fee gets adjusted periodically right?So your calculation is wrong at base ...... If the price of BTC goes up considerably then the fee will get reduced. No ... i didn't know ... so explain more ...... Who will reduced it ? Is btc network intelligent ? I don't think so ......... I am paying 10000 satoshi fee for years .... when the price was $1115 till today that price is $220 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: sgbett on August 24, 2015, 09:59:33 AM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. is it banned? (http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2015, 12:24:26 PM For per transaction there is 10000 satoshi ...... so if BTB price be $500,000 you must pay $50 for per transaction .... You do know that the fee gets adjusted periodically right?So your calculation is wrong at base ...... If the price of BTC goes up considerably then the fee will get reduced. No ... i didn't know ... so explain more ...... Who will reduced it ? Is btc network intelligent ? I don't think so ......... I am paying 10000 satoshi fee for years .... when the price was $1115 till today that price is $220 Fees are set by economic and time considerations by the users of the network. I think this explains everything you would ever want to know about fees, and more: http://fc15.ifca.ai/preproceedings/bitcoin/paper_8.pdf Look at the chart on page 9, it shows how the amount of fees paid by the users have changed over time. This is not a trivial subject as you can see by reading the paper. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on February 07, 2017, 06:05:11 AM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. OH REEALLY NOW? ::) ;D I started buying bitcoin in late 2013 in small increments (a kind of personally tailored dollar cost averaging), and I kept buying on the way down thinking that I was getting a better and better deal. In late 2014, when prices were in the upper $300s, I thought that it had pretty much bottom out, and I bought a decent additional stash. So throughout 2015 when prices stayed in the $200s, I engaged in a considerable debate with more than one "know-it-all" who was convinced that BTC would never again go above upper $200s, and strongly advising that I sell in order to recoupe some of my principle.... at that point, my average price per BTC was a bit over $500, and I said that I did not need to sell, and I think that it would be crazy to sell at a loss (and lock in losses). I said that I would hold through it and just continue with my practice of buying on the way down. So yeah, those were tough times, and us HODLers had to stick through a considerable period of depressed prices, but it seems to have paid off quite well. Currently, my average cost per BTC is a bit over $400, so my portfolio is doing quite well and even measure profits of more than 150% - which is much more than my expectations of good performance of about 6% per year (which was what my stock index funds had returned on average over the previous 15 years). Anyhow, better than 50% per year (on average) with bitcoin remains a decent place to be (and quite a bit of cushion) and even a bit of an ability to make fun of the naysayers. ;) :D Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Cashew on February 08, 2017, 04:52:24 PM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong ! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: cellard on February 08, 2017, 05:21:46 PM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong ! farting shot was just another alt account by kwukduck or that other idiot that doesn't stop spamming the speculation section with FUD with what appears to be automated messages. Notice how they always disappear when the price rallies, and they use every small correction to try to trick noobs into panic selling. Very sad indeed. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: digaran on February 08, 2017, 05:59:53 PM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. OH REEALLY NOW? ::) ;D I started buying bitcoin in late 2013 in small increments (a kind of personally tailored dollar cost averaging), and I kept buying on the way down thinking that I was getting a better and better deal. In late 2014, when prices were in the upper $300s, I thought that it had pretty much bottom out, and I bought a decent additional stash. So throughout 2015 when prices stayed in the $200s, I engaged in a considerable debate with more than one "know-it-all" who was convinced that BTC would never again go above upper $200s, and strongly advising that I sell in order to recoupe some of my principle.... at that point, my average price per BTC was a bit over $500, and I said that I did not need to sell, and I think that it would be crazy to sell at a loss (and lock in losses). I said that I would hold through it and just continue with my practice of buying on the way down. So yeah, those were tough times, and us HODLers had to stick through a considerable period of depressed prices, but it seems to have paid off quite well. Currently, my average cost per BTC is a bit over $400, so my portfolio is doing quite well and even measure profits of more than 150% - which is much more than my expectations of good performance of about 6% per year (which was what my stock index funds had returned on average over the previous 15 years). Anyhow, better than 50% per year (on average) with bitcoin remains a decent place to be (and quite a bit of cushion) and even a bit of an ability to make fun of the naysayers. ;) :D These kind of stories that are good for moral in community, stories that are undeniable even for the most of the skeptics. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: maku on February 08, 2017, 06:39:10 PM Actually I am glad that someone necroed this thread from the oblivion. I am not entirely sure if math behind the numbers in these calculations is correct
But it is a great reminder for people of what bitcoin could become when people will trust it instead of crying and believe in every FUD they hear. Another thing is slow progress of adoption, after 2013 there were many predictions (Tim Draper and others) which presented us great future. I am not saying that this future won't come, but at this point it seems that be further along the way everyone expected it to be - $10.000 in 2018 seems highly unlikely. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on February 08, 2017, 09:33:20 PM Actually I am glad that someone necroed this thread from the oblivion. I am not entirely sure if math behind the numbers in these calculations is correct But it is a great reminder for people of what bitcoin could become when people will trust it instead of crying and believe in every FUD they hear. Another thing is slow progress of adoption, after 2013 there were many predictions (Tim Draper and others) which presented us great future. I am not saying that this future won't come, but at this point it seems that be further along the way everyone expected it to be - $10.000 in 2018 seems highly unlikely. I think that each of us has the ability to come up with his/her own assessment of the possibilities of bitcoin and the probabilities that it may reach certain price points within certain price periods. Furthermore, those projections about what is probable and/or realistic are going to be tweaked over time and the probabilities change after the happening of events (whether those events were unknowns or anticipated). Sometimes, also, I get a little bit irritated by math projections and also sometimes the level of certainty that might be attributed to the future happening of certain events - and yeah, merely because you assign a lower probability of an event occurring than someone else does not mean that the you might end up being wrong, even though you may have had the better argument based on the totality of the then known facts. For example, through most of 2015, with BTC prices largely staying in the $200s, it would have seemed a bit improbable to predict price movements as we had experienced them ($500 in November 2015, $780 in June 2016, $1,100 in January 2017). In fact going from the $200s to $1,100s in about 14 months would seem kind of improbable.. even thogh it happened those become our new sets of circumstances in which we can project future possibilities - and for example, how likely we consider going back down to below $600 can be equally an interesting question as how likely it is that we will go above $5k - and in what time line? and how much volatility are we going to face if such outcomes were to play out? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: DRaGoN RaNTaRo on February 08, 2017, 10:25:25 PM The reasoning is flawed, the math is flawed, the whole thing is fooking flawed. No way btc is going to be worth more than $500-$600 at most. Unless the Chinese gov't totally goes bananas and unban it. This is so much fun to look back what people were saying. And to this day all the people that were not very optimistic about Bitcoin price were all wrong ! farting shot was just another alt account by kwukduck or that other idiot that doesn't stop spamming the speculation section with FUD with what appears to be automated messages. Notice how they always disappear when the price rallies, and they use every small correction to try to trick noobs into panic selling. Very sad indeed. I like the math behind the speculation ,there is nothing wrong in dreaming big :P. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Meuh6879 on February 08, 2017, 10:50:36 PM BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. In image (i like image). http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/7189/rM2FEo.png https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/ https://i.imgur.com/kJLuBLT.png https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1119926.0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Shiroslullaby on February 08, 2017, 11:23:11 PM 25% of blackmarket transactions in Bitcoin is the most likely scenario to actually happen from this graphic.
Illuminati puppetmasters would never let a currency they didn't create replace reserve currency. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: angaper on February 09, 2017, 12:36:31 AM Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Bitcoin0916 on February 09, 2017, 08:27:05 AM I'm not sure the price of $500.000 will be reached. Maybe before the price $10.000, bitcoin already disappear. The main reason because of a coin which replaced the coins and also any coin better than bitcoin. Maybe a lot of people believe the price continues to rise, but not significantly and it took a long time.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Rahar02 on February 09, 2017, 09:58:23 AM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Amazing calculations, it is make sense in math but the prediction about 10% acceptance by growth of population, seems hardly to achieve. I realized, that is possible in the future if blockchain technology and devs team could solve all the problems such as what we face right now, the biggest obstacle maybe come from the government which ban bitcoin or push exchanges to sink in the middle of financial services. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JANGKRIK BOSS on February 09, 2017, 10:48:59 AM As a loyal user, I'm also realistic. I think there may be a price of $500.000 is achieved, the main thing that has to be resolved is the issue of speed of the transaction. many users complain that the transaction is bitcoin became slow and need more than 50,000 confirmations.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: shield132 on February 09, 2017, 11:14:33 AM There is really suggestive question here. We have many years to see what will happen about bitcoin but to my mind there is no doubt that mostly bitcoin's price will grow and grow, people's interest increases, bitcoin is limited supply and many people means price of that supply will grow. We can say this for example: If we have 2 bottle of whiskey and only 1-2 people are interested with this, we will try to sell it cheaply but if 20 people wants that one whiskey bottle, there is big competition and this automatically means that we will sell whiskey in higher price because whiskey is one but 20 people wishes to buy, so higher bet wins here. Hope everyone understand what I wanted to say.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Barbut on February 09, 2017, 11:59:16 AM Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars. They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?" You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN." After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming. BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution. Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:
Next bubbles:
For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now. $50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble. $500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin. Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population? Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world. Bitcoin rejects no one. So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go. So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin. 10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion. Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=718863.msg8120744#msg8120744). I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it. Amazing calculations, it is make sense in math but the prediction about 10% acceptance by growth of population, seems hardly to achieve. I realized, that is possible in the future if blockchain technology and devs team could solve all the problems such as what we face right now, the biggest obstacle maybe come from the government which ban bitcoin or push exchanges to sink in the middle of financial services. Amazing calculations and amazing comment. Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world, bitcoin rejects no one this is why bitcoin will succeed and have more then 10 % population behind it. I also see this revolution, this world will go forward and internet together with bitcoin can help us on this revolution. We don't need fiat anymore, you will send me food and I will give you bitcoins, or litecoins.. I will send water someone he will pay me in same way. We don't need banks and governments to take huge percent from us every time we need to buy something, fuck them! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: d@nte on February 09, 2017, 12:38:52 PM Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions. If that happens, it will take decades, $500,000 is an exaggeration under current conditions. However, maybe it will not take that long to see Bitcoin in the $ 10,000 range. There are some scenarios that may help Bitcoin follow this path, but that will depend on things that would take many years to happen.One of these scenario would be one in which large companies such as amazon.com and ebay.com decided to adopt the currency. That would generate an incredible demand, and given the fact that Bitcoin is scarcer than most people think, it would be possible to see the price reach very high levels. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: numismatist on February 09, 2017, 12:47:45 PM Well, it is undoubted that achieving such an amazing price would be the realization of our most cherished dreams, but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. There is no way to guarantee that the bitcoin will hold its current hegemony in the future, or even we could see new and amazing digital options in those days to carry out our financial transactions. If that happens, it will take decades, $500,000 is an exaggeration under current conditions. However, maybe it will not take that long to see Bitcoin in the $ 10,000 range. There are some scenarios that may help Bitcoin follow this path, but that will depend on things that would take many years to happen.One of these scenario would be one in which large companies such as amazon.com and ebay.com decided to adopt the currency. That would generate an incredible demand, and given the fact that Bitcoin is scarcer than most people think, it would be possible to see the price reach very high levels. Alibaba.com. They are sponsoring the IOC on the next Olympics. Maybe eBay or Amazon are more in the known, but in comparison they are rather lightweights. And neither eBay nor Amazon will get away from dollars, not even the tiniest step. Trust me on that. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Denker on February 09, 2017, 01:05:33 PM I'm not sure the price of $500.000 will be reached. Maybe before the price $10.000, bitcoin already disappear. The main reason because of a coin which replaced the coins and also any coin better than bitcoin. Maybe a lot of people believe the price continues to rise, but not significantly and it took a long time. This price will not be reached for many decades!Probably never! $10.000 is something you could aim for if you're still young and have a long breath. Why should Bitcoin disappear? It's THE Blockchain!! All the other stuff seems to be irrelevant. Sure this doesn't mean Bitcoin can't be replaced, but I'm sure it will not disappear! Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Meuh6879 on February 10, 2017, 12:43:51 AM but it is not so easy as your calculations shows. That's because you prefer math over graphic (without numbers). I prefer graphic : http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/782/k7At21.png http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/8011/eRnHBP.png https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kRLvpDBSY Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: ingiltere on February 10, 2017, 02:01:17 AM I prefer graphic : -snip- That's pretty neat graphics! I agree that we haven't passed early adopter phase yet, but it's becoming to early majority day by day. One last big pump in 1-2 years will take us to early majority phase; more news, more adoption and faster adoption rate... I'm a strong believer that banking system will fail and Bitcoin will achieve 7 digits one day. We'll witness history. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: w00t on February 10, 2017, 07:57:56 AM $7,333,755,829,104
Yep - That's trillions Based on current spot gold price of $1,222.84 http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp If there is one thing to make to barbaric relic to go away it will be Bitcoin. Gold market cap / Bitcoin market cap (minus 1 million BTCs lost) => ~ 366 000 USD per 1 BTC Yes $500k per 1 BTC doesn't seem unreasonable in next 15 years or so. Even today (I mean right here, right now) with all the problems Bitcoin has (and there is plenty - such as it doesn't scale well) it's already superior to gold so I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be on par with gold. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BurtW on February 10, 2017, 02:34:27 PM Even today (I mean right here, right now) with all the problems Bitcoin has (and there is plenty - such as it doesn't scale well) it's already superior to gold so I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be on par with gold. No way. This post (from very early in this thread) is a bit dated because we are now in the next era but the point is still valid: We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jbreher on February 10, 2017, 11:22:20 PM To build upon BurtW's work, it may be worthwhile to ask ourselves 'what is a reasonable share of the world's power production for Bitcoin mining to consume?'.
The Financial industry currently accounts for about 9% of US GDP. Lacking any data one way or the other (i.e., as an initial conjecture), let us posit that this industry consumes power proportional to its share of GDP. Accordingly, let us posit that this financial sector consumes 9% of the world's (I made a leap there from US to global) power. As Bitcoin increases in value, it seems absurd to think that it could do so without cannibalizing a fair share of the financial sector's share of GDP. Just as a hypothetical, let us assume that Bitcoin (i.e. direct p2p finance) can displace half of the financial industry. Accordingly, let us allocate 4.5% market share -- and thereby power consumption -- to each of Bitcoin and legacy finance. That would put us somewhere in the middle of era 3 for $500,000 per BTC, without increasing carbon footprint. Not too shabby. Obviously, there are several SWAG proportion guesses that need analysis. But this framework may be helpful for sorting 'how bad is Bitcoin for the ecology?' issues. Or from and alternative viewpoint, if Bitcoin were to increase to $250,000 per in the next several years, the issue of unemployed bankers would be a bigger problem than anthropogenic global warming. Oh-the-huge-manatee.gif Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: w00t on February 12, 2017, 01:32:02 PM Even today (I mean right here, right now) with all the problems Bitcoin has (and there is plenty - such as it doesn't scale well) it's already superior to gold so I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be on par with gold. No way. This post (from very early in this thread) is a bit dated because we are now in the next era but the point is still valid: We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. This is very interesting - thanks for re-posting it. Can you please post current numbers in this formula? P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] In your opinion what is the current maximum non-bubbly price? Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: dhampir-D on February 12, 2017, 01:43:08 PM I saw another analysis that presents the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $ 25,000 range, and I think that's a possible value, even though the odds are low. But a price in the $ 500,000 range, even if achieved, would take more than a decade to happen, and for that it would be necessary for Bitcoin to be recognized as a currency by a very large number of people around the world.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Nathan047 on February 12, 2017, 02:27:18 PM Someone says 1 million $ per bitcoin, some other says 100.000$, all in all the future seems bright :D Lots of people say lots of things, but just because somebody on the internet says something doesn't make it true. I'm hope for the best but I still feel skeptical.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: blackmagician on February 12, 2017, 02:42:26 PM Someone says 1 million $ per bitcoin, some other says 100.000$, all in all the future seems bright :D Lots of people say lots of things, but just because somebody on the internet says something doesn't make it true. I'm hope for the best but I still feel skeptical.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Carmen_Sandiego on February 12, 2017, 02:55:38 PM Someone says 1 million $ per bitcoin, some other says 100.000$, all in all the future seems bright :D Lots of people say lots of things, but just because somebody on the internet says something doesn't make it true. I'm hope for the best but I still feel skeptical.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Febo on February 12, 2017, 09:08:58 PM http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/7189/rM2FEo.png https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/ I never thought of max value of Bitcoin, but yes I agree it exist. This picture is nice, but what most people dont see, that Bitcoin price is many factors together. It is hedge founds allocations, it is gold holders diverts some % of their holdings in BTC, it is some % of black market is done in BTC. So on my opinion price can reach over one million USD. Even if USA inflation is similar as today. But of course that will not happen that fast. Can take decades. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: lionheart78 on February 12, 2017, 09:18:24 PM http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/7189/rM2FEo.png https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/ I never thought of max value of Bitcoin, but yes I agree it exist. This picture is nice, but what most people dont see, that Bitcoin price is many factors together. It is hedge founds allocations, it is gold holders diverts some % of their holdings in BTC, it is some % of black market is done in BTC. So on my opinion price can reach over one million USD. Even if USA inflation is similar as today. But of course that will not happen that fast. Can take decades. This at least have some reference why he came out with that statistics. There might be an error in the calculation but I think it is better than others who are just putting random thing in the calculation. What I mean is the given figure is very possible but the problem would be when will those prices happen. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BillyBobZorton on February 13, 2017, 12:38:46 AM http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/7189/rM2FEo.png https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/ I never thought of max value of Bitcoin, but yes I agree it exist. This picture is nice, but what most people dont see, that Bitcoin price is many factors together. It is hedge founds allocations, it is gold holders diverts some % of their holdings in BTC, it is some % of black market is done in BTC. So on my opinion price can reach over one million USD. Even if USA inflation is similar as today. But of course that will not happen that fast. Can take decades. I can definitely see bitcoin becoming the global e-commerce currency during the next 10 years if we get our shit together and activate segwit so lightning network is working at its full potential and tons of transactions per second, instant and almost free, are possible, that's when bitcoin usage will explode. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: brole on February 13, 2017, 01:34:18 AM ^Agree. Targets in my head about bitcoins for '27 are ~$10K. So this story has some logic. ;D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: HabBear on February 13, 2017, 03:41:45 AM Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. Well, thanks for your logic. It would be nice to have more detail but I suppose you did provide a link for us to explore. By the way, you're math is wrong...which is ironic given that the headline of your post highlights "the math behind" the idea. $8,500,000,000,000 / 12,000,000 = $708,000. BUT, your post is from 2014 and it's 2017 now and we've got 17 million coins in existence, so based on your math the projected price per coin would go down to about $500,000 (so your answer is still correct.) Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JANGKRIK BOSS on February 13, 2017, 10:52:48 AM I'm not sure the price bitcoin could reach $500.000 without exceptional events. the unusual examples are: bitcoin used officially by a State, thus triggering the whole citizens buy bitcoin so prices skyrocket.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: warwar on February 13, 2017, 11:09:22 AM I'm not sure the price bitcoin could reach $500.000 without exceptional events. the unusual examples are: bitcoin used officially by a State, thus triggering the whole citizens buy bitcoin so prices skyrocket. Agree without a big impact from market bitcoin will not reach with that price because i couldnt think that the price will be at that peak though nothing is impossible with bitcoin if almost of the people here is using it as a means of payment then i think it will . But now i think it really takes time first before reaching it. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: rajasumi3 on May 06, 2017, 08:14:42 AM I am waiting for the price of bitcoins to be 500000$,well that thing to happen it needs a lot of patience .well i may not be alive when the price of bitcoins hits so much amount.Mass acceptance is required so that the price of bitcoins goes high and otherwise it will be a total flop.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: BitHodler on May 06, 2017, 08:32:39 AM Mass acceptance is required so that the price of bitcoins goes high and otherwise it will be a total flop. Mass acceptance will help, but in order to make a rocket jump forward, we need professional capital to flow into Bitcoin.As soon as institutional investors have a solid and legal way of jumping on board (which is why an ETF will be very important), then playtime is over for the average trader. People already complain about Bitcoin's price being high, but as soon as the big boys come in, one tenth of a Bitcoin will cost the same as one whole Bitcoin right now ~ and it will even go beyond that. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Grillo on May 06, 2017, 10:17:37 AM gotta love math ;D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Tesorex on May 06, 2017, 10:21:04 AM The reason why Satoshi yet to sell even one of his coins, he designed it to rise much more than the current prices.
I'm gonna hodl just like him. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: 7jaka7 on May 06, 2017, 07:32:43 PM It would be nice to see it rise like that....I am skeptical mainly because I am involved now...When I first started on Bitcoin prices were around $800 dollars. Highest I have seen since then is around $650. Noone blames you :D So, if Bitcoin fails we can blame me:0 Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Febo on May 15, 2017, 06:49:14 PM ^Agree. Targets in my head about bitcoins for '27 are ~$10K. So this story has some logic. ;D I am quite positive that in 2027 price of BTC will be way over $10k. for that only 2 bubbles are needed. I expect we will see at least 3. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: log2exp on May 15, 2017, 07:00:55 PM ^Agree. Targets in my head about bitcoins for '27 are ~$10K. So this story has some logic. ;D I am quite positive that in 2027 price of BTC will be way over $10k. for that only 2 bubbles are needed. I expect we will see at least 3. Will be at $10k by 2022 just in linear growth, should be around $100k by 2027. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: aeternus on May 16, 2017, 11:32:43 PM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Amph on May 17, 2017, 06:39:26 AM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in. 50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Vaskiy on May 17, 2017, 09:13:21 AM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in. 50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Meowth05 on May 18, 2017, 01:15:13 PM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in. Indeed, it takes a long from bitcoin to reach that amount. There are many things that could happen before attain that amount it might become stable the price of bitcoin. For me it is enough if its price will reach 10,000 $ per bitcoin.Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: senyorito123 on May 18, 2017, 01:47:17 PM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in. 50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving Pretty though and ambitious to here that bitcoin will cross to that price since that price is more even huge and i can't imagine on how many fiat volume will be consume before we can reach that. But anyways aslong as the bitcoins price movement is pretty more healthy then we can't elimanate the speculation that the current price for now will be surpassed on incoming days. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: chopstick on May 18, 2017, 02:26:53 PM 500k Per bitcoin is still possible.
With the 1mb limit removed. With the limit still in place, I'm not so sure. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: aeternus on May 20, 2017, 02:34:02 AM It could happen but we must not think this is going to happen anytime soon, I think that will take at least 50 years to reach that price and by that time a lot of things could have happened to you and the world we live in. 50 years seems overstimated, consider that the growth is exponentially not linear, if you see an increase of $1000 per year now it does not mean that it will not be $10k per year later when the reward will drop more not that miners matter anymore because they would take the same revenue with those high fee...really it's only about adoption, the present one with few states is good, it's a launch pad for the future one it's the same story more country regulate bitcoin = better value, i'm confident that $10k as a stable value will be seen in the next halving Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: AlcoHoDL on May 20, 2017, 06:45:08 AM Assuming the value of bitcoin is 2000 dollars by the end of the year bitcoin will only need to grow a little bit less than 12% yearly compounded annually so it can reach half a million in 50 years but I remember reading in a thread that bitcoin goes up on average 6% annually if that rate keeps true then it will take bitcoin 95 years to reach that value without taking into account inflation. Are you sure about that 6%? Because I calculated that from 2015 to 2016 Bitcoin had a gain of over 80%, and from 2016 to 2017 the gain was over 110%. The gain from 2017 to 2018 is expected to be even higher than the previous gains (but we don't know yet). So we're talking about yearly gains far higher than 6% or 12%... Unless I'm missing something. Edit: With a yearly gain of 100% (too optimistic, I know) and a starting value of $2000, it will only take 8 years for the value of Bitcoin to reach $0.5M/BTC. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: aeternus on May 27, 2017, 01:52:52 AM Assuming the value of bitcoin is 2000 dollars by the end of the year bitcoin will only need to grow a little bit less than 12% yearly compounded annually so it can reach half a million in 50 years but I remember reading in a thread that bitcoin goes up on average 6% annually if that rate keeps true then it will take bitcoin 95 years to reach that value without taking into account inflation. Are you sure about that 6%? Because I calculated that from 2015 to 2016 Bitcoin had a gain of over 80%, and from 2016 to 2017 the gain was over 110%. The gain from 2017 to 2018 is expected to be even higher than the previous gains (but we don't know yet). So we're talking about yearly gains far higher than 6% or 12%... Unless I'm missing something. Edit: With a yearly gain of 100% (too optimistic, I know) and a starting value of $2000, it will only take 8 years for the value of Bitcoin to reach $0.5M/BTC. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: zoidsoft on August 10, 2017, 03:55:09 AM Interesting to read this in retrospect what people were thinking at the time in 2014. Now we have some big names like John McAfee saying $500k in 3 years. The price in South Korea broke $4500 late this spring then dropped down. Currently the price is at $3350 after reaching almost $3500 after segwit locked in.
For $500k to be possible, bitcoin will have to scale many times and probably have mass adoption and have easier to use apps hooked up to smart phones. The transaction speeds will also have to improve a lot. Currently it can only process 10 transactions / second. Ethereum is double this. To get to the level of Visa/MasterCard it will have to handle at least 25,000 transactions per second. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: j753k on August 10, 2017, 07:57:18 PM Interesting to read this in retrospect what people were thinking at the time in 2014. Now we have some big names like John McAfee saying $500k in 3 years. The price in South Korea broke $4500 late this spring then dropped down. Currently the price is at $3350 after reaching almost $3500 after segwit locked in. For $500k to be possible, bitcoin will have to scale many times and probably have mass adoption and have easier to use apps hooked up to smart phones. The transaction speeds will also have to improve a lot. Currently it can only process 10 transactions / second. Ethereum is double this. To get to the level of Visa/MasterCard it will have to handle at least 25,000 transactions per second. Most people just use there bitcoin as an investment and dont use it daily for transactions, so your wrong about the need to process on mastercard levels. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: GreatOrchid on August 10, 2017, 08:04:49 PM wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge.
I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future. by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: The_Dark_Knight on August 11, 2017, 10:00:00 PM The numbers are correct but like always the question is when? The Internet and computers were adopted very fast because it was very obvious the benefits they had, while the benefits of bitcoin are as obvious the problems is that bitcoin is competing against governments and banks two of the most powerful institutions in the world.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: zoidsoft on August 16, 2017, 06:15:59 AM Most people just use there bitcoin as an investment and dont use it daily for transactions, so your wrong about the need to process on mastercard levels. This assumes that the nature of bitcoin use doesn't change. What I said is that IF it does then it will have to process 25,000/sec or it will run into problems. If it doesn't grow at all, then it will also never need to scale again. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Warren Buffert on August 31, 2017, 11:32:13 PM This is all assuming there will be nothing new, which very well might be so... but maybe someday btc will hand over the crown.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: marcuslong on August 31, 2017, 11:42:34 PM Wow this is really amazing to use we are now in near future where people will celebrate because of the price of bitcoin since we seeing the potential of growing bitcoin hoping that those local store and online store see's the worth of using bitcoin to be implemented into there payment option. But im not expecting this to happens because i don't want to disappoint my self.
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: angaper on September 01, 2017, 12:01:56 AM wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge. I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future. by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors. Why not? So far bitcoin has overcome all the pessimistic forecasts that have again and again condemned it to imminent failure over the years, and that is why many of the early adopters are not millionaires, given the catastrophic scenarios that regularly arise, many of them decided to sell at the first major pump, either at $ 1, at $ 100 or at $ 1,000. Some years ago the Bank of America forecast that $ 1,300 was a natural limit that could not be broken, but today we see the price of bitcoin making fun of those forecasts. Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on September 01, 2017, 12:29:05 AM wow people this is such an optimistic thread, why would you think bitcoin can reach half a million? i dont think its possible, there are too much coins around and if everyone would be worth half million then it will be huge. I am an optimistic person, but i see bitcoin at a maximum of $50.000 dollars each one in years... but i dont see it in the near future. by the way, i hope it to do so. it would be a very good price for bitcoin investors. Why not? So far bitcoin has overcome all the pessimistic forecasts that have again and again condemned it to imminent failure over the years, and that is why many of the early adopters are not millionaires, given the catastrophic scenarios that regularly arise, many of them decided to sell at the first major pump, either at $ 1, at $ 100 or at $ 1,000. Some years ago the Bank of America forecast that $ 1,300 was a natural limit that could not be broken, but today we see the price of bitcoin making fun of those forecasts. Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. Yep... lots of scaredy cats out there, and frequently, I recommend a form of dollar cost averaging that is within budget - however, peeps are even afraid of that. So, yeah, there have been people proclaiming bitcoin to be overpriced since $250 -- and so as the BTC price goes up, they get more and more nervous to buy in, and I think that has to do with a gambling mentality. Instead of being prudent and buying slowly, frequently these folks want to put money in and then to see prices go up right away, and when the prices go up, lets say 50% or 100%, they get nervous again and cash out everything.. seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation -- though I can partly understand because I feel the same way about Ethereum... I could never realize a 5x, 10x or 20x profit of ethereum, because I would be nervous and cash out after a 50% price appreciation. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: butcherboss on September 01, 2017, 05:08:17 AM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: faatipoke on September 01, 2017, 05:28:47 AM 1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's) 2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's) 3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-) This post is entirely great especially the one I quoted. Considering that it is written in 2014 it is awesome and thanks to the original poster. I agree that bitcoin is a revolution after computers and internet, maybe be the biggest innovation that internet opened to us. Being a part of such a revolution is awesome. I am true supporter of bitcoin Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Barbut on September 01, 2017, 05:34:12 AM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D This will continue, don't worry about that. After bitcoin price rise, and I mean this year rise from 500 to 4700 dollars many people saw how much bitcoin can cost in the future. Before there was talking about how bitcoin price is suppressed and that someone is holding price to not go up to early, it was question can bitcoin hold high price at all. For years bitcoin is growing, gathering power and now we saw a demonstration of it, and its not over, that's why we believe that bitcoin can cost a lot one day. We are just little part of world population and yet bitcoin is already so strong, what will happen when half of the world enter in crypto? We can just imagine. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: HabBear on September 01, 2017, 05:35:34 AM I totally agree. The moon is possible and the math is so simple
Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. Where did you get 12M coins from? We're at about 16.55M coins in existence today (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins)). The math for my numbers still hits your mark at $513,595. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jjacob on September 01, 2017, 06:10:26 AM I totally agree. The moon is possible and the math is so simple Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion $500,000 Bitcoin baby. Where did you get 12M coins from? We're at about 16.55M coins in existence today (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins)). The math for my numbers still hits your mark at $513,595. The post is dated 2014. The 12M coins was the number of coins circulating in 2014. The numerator should also be adjusted for 2017. There is a lot more money circulating these days. So the math is not way off. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bitcoinisbest on September 01, 2017, 06:30:59 AM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D Everybody expects the price rise to the best possible high. But will this happen is the question. Currently its approx 4700$ and to reach 500k mark means more than 100 times from now it needs to be raised. Well in the mean time there would be some thing new which will come up and may be better than btc. Altcoins have started gaining significant investors considering btc to be expensive so people will shift to other altcoins. Al factors considering may be difficult for such a price. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: leex1528 on September 01, 2017, 02:21:31 PM So how many people are now using Bitcoin? In your OP you said it was .01% of the population, we are pretty much at the 5k mark now so is it save to say its .1%? Things are going to get crazy!
Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: mrfreezeh on September 01, 2017, 03:28:35 PM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D Everybody expects the price rise to the best possible high. But will this happen is the question. Currently its approx 4700$ and to reach 500k mark means more than 100 times from now it needs to be raised. Well in the mean time there would be some thing new which will come up and may be better than btc. Altcoins have started gaining significant investors considering btc to be expensive so people will shift to other altcoins. Al factors considering may be difficult for such a price. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: LevshaK1 on September 01, 2017, 05:12:54 PM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D Everybody expects the price rise to the best possible high. But will this happen is the question. Currently its approx 4700$ and to reach 500k mark means more than 100 times from now it needs to be raised. Well in the mean time there would be some thing new which will come up and may be better than btc. Altcoins have started gaining significant investors considering btc to be expensive so people will shift to other altcoins. Al factors considering may be difficult for such a price. Yes, I am surprised by the crypto currency, so if this growth, which began a few days ago, will continue to $ 10,000 without stops, I will not be very surprised already. But I'm already used to the fact that everyone is talking about a bubble. Let them say, I am unshakable in my belief in bitcoin Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: Coffee135 on September 01, 2017, 05:53:47 PM Looking at the current events I am beginning to believe in your prediction, hope this continues ;D Everybody expects the price rise to the best possible high. But will this happen is the question. Currently its approx 4700$ and to reach 500k mark means more than 100 times from now it needs to be raised. Well in the mean time there would be some thing new which will come up and may be better than btc. Altcoins have started gaining significant investors considering btc to be expensive so people will shift to other altcoins. Al factors considering may be difficult for such a price. Yes, I am surprised by the crypto currency, so if this growth, which began a few days ago, will continue to $ 10,000 without stops, I will not be very surprised already. But I'm already used to the fact that everyone is talking about a bubble. Let them say, I am unshakable in my belief in bitcoin Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jbreher on September 01, 2017, 06:46:22 PM Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. $500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold. I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on September 01, 2017, 08:32:58 PM Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. $500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold. I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however. It seems strange that you want to intellectually (and theoretically) limit the growth potential of bitcoin based on another artificial value construct. They are both artificial; however, yeah, if we were to go back to the days of the caveman, then gold would become more valuable - but what are the likely Armageddon scenarios of that? So, yeah, armageddon ideas may be in the consciousness of people, but if we think in terms of practicality, bitcoin has a lot of features that gold just does not have.. including ease of divisibility, transparency, portability, so even if true, it will likely take a while for bitcoin to catch up to gold's market cap (if it does), but I really think that you are being too pie in the sky artificial, random and arbitrary, if you really truly believe that the theoretical limit of bitcoin is your seemingly arbitrarily selected ceiling of gold's market cap. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: bitcoindusts on September 01, 2017, 08:51:15 PM Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. $500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold. I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however. Bitcoin is still in early stage, but considering the saturation of market and the possible areas Bitcon can cover, OP had stated it perfectly, so going on that trend, I can see Bitcoin reaching more than $500,000 because I believe Bitcoin will cover way lot more than what OP stated. We are living in early age of cryptocurrency so there is really a lot of room to grow for it especially the market being covered. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: jbreher on September 01, 2017, 10:32:01 PM Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. $500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold. I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however. It seems strange that you want to intellectually (and theoretically) limit the growth potential of bitcoin based on another artificial value construct. Maybe I don't understand your manner of speech. I don't want to limit it. I just don't see what would drive the total value of Bitcoin -- as seen by the world at large -- past that of gold. Maybe. I've just not envisioned how that might occur. Title: Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. Post by: JayJuanGee on September 01, 2017, 10:51:13 PM Maybe I'm very optimistic, but I think bitcoin will again surprise those who today see the price of $ 500K as impossible. $500,000/BTC is very close to the point where the market cap would equal the market cap of gold. At least in today's dollars. I really don't see any scenario where we could go higher in real terms. Of course, we could (probably will) have runaway inflation of the USD. Such could result in a dollar price above this, But I personally don't see a scenario where the totality of bitcoin becomes valued as higher than the totality of gold. I'd be happy to be surprised in this manner, however. It seems strange that you want to intellectually (and theoretically) limit the growth potential of bitcoin based on another artificial value construct. Maybe I don't understand your manner of speech. I don't want to limit it. I just don't see what would drive the total value of Bitcoin -- as seen by the world at large -- past that of gold. Maybe. I've just not envisioned how that might occur. Well, isn't it the same thing if we call something a "theoretical limit" or if we say that we "cannot imagine any scenario in which"? there is no need to get caught upon semantics, and if you cannot envision such scenarios, then so be it. No matter what $500k per bitcoin does seem to be quite a way into the future, even if it were to occur. $500k per BTC would have to go through considerably more levels of adoption and even to sustain decent periods of price support at lower levels... From here, I can imagine such 10x and then another 10x.. and then another 10x taking place in a matter of less than 3 years in a kind of best case scenario, but yeah, I certainly am not relying on any kind of $500k scenario in order to be happy because I have already done quite well for myself with BTC prices approaching $5k, and even with BTC prices at $1k, I would be in a decent position and beyond the price performance of any traditional investment that I have gotten into (such as various index funds - that seem to perform at about an average of 6% annually in the best of longer term scenarios)... So currently, there seems to be a lot of cushion in BTC prices for those of us who have been into BTC for a while - but still it seems that we could even experience more wealth appreciation, and we are going to have to consider various means in order to secure our holdings for these possible very bullish scenarios that seem a hell-of-a-lot more likely now, as compared to a couple of years ago when we were stuck in the $200s for nearly a year. Whether $500k btc happens or not, it sure is nice to already be decently into this baby and decently into profits, no? For people newly coming into bitcoin, I have been recommending similar strategies of some variation of dollar cost averaging - however, the more probable that one believes $500k, the more willing that the person might invest a bit more aggressively now or upon any price dips. |
