Bitcoin Forum

 New thread   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=982118.0

jump was 1.59%

sunnyIgor was the prediction winner

__________________________________________________________

Back from supper.  Ribs in Tomato Sauce.  Very nice.  


 my  pick is always (-1.11%) for each and every diff adjustment for all of 2015.  Thank you seriouscoin.

Self- moderated thread once again thank you seriouscoin.

_____________________________________________________
Last diff was +5.01 percent

Thanks to suchmoon's promo 0.20 btc was given to kexkey
note it was 0.20btc due to a rollover



payout is here

 https://blockchain.info/tx/79d1049fb9ea03a1712e9883bad876c9c8088acfa8cf9a9e96dc8377fd78f6f4


Note I run the thread and suchmoon runs the promo

his rules are 3 posts lower:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525

It is his contest more for fun and general BTC promo concept then any other thing.

Thus I always pick -1.11% for my pick.
____________________________________________________________________

Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty           Change     Hash Rate

Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s



Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s

current numbers.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   49,634,630,812                        (+6.32%)
Adjust time:   After 2011 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):   332,158,589 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   20:5 (2.7 minutes ago)




http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   344741
Total BTC   13.869M
 
Difficulty   46684376317
Estimated   46628440050 in 2011 blks
 
Network total   352872.727 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.64 / 542 s
Home Bitcoin Markets Charts About

suchmoon feel free to add promo after this post.

I'm going to try something different this time for determining the winner, so please read carefully - the rules have changed. Thanks everyone for suggestions in the previous thread.

There is a 0.1 BTC reward for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules - see below.

Official deadline is 04:00 (4 AM) UTC March 1st, 2015, roughly 40-50% into the cycle. I will accept entries made after the deadline as long as they are posted before I publish the final list of participants - to allow for a grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down.

An eligible guess is a percentage range of 0.25% posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. Valid percentage ranges are:

0.01 to 0.25%
0.26 to 0.50%
0.51 to 0.75%
0.76 to 1.00%
1.01 to 1.25%
... and so on

The range can be positive or negative. 0.00% (zero) is a special case as it does not have a range. If you guess zero and win I'll double the reward.  

No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed to be eligible for the reward - just post like you would normally do and as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage I'll consider you enrolled. If you post just a single number and not a range I will assign the corresponding 0.25% range to you, for example if you post 1.11 you will get the 1.01-1.25 range.

If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted, i.e. you can revise your entry until the deadline.

To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty) (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment. You win if the bitcoinwisdom percentage falls into the range guessed by you.

If nobody wins the reward amount will be rolled over (added) to next cycle.

Tiebreaker: Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the reward please review previous guesses and make sure your range is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that range will be eligible for the reward.

To collect the reward the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.

Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I'll likely do it much sooner than that.

Funds for the reward and previous payouts are here: https://blockchain.info/address/1Nz1eoPMqBUSRwgQCS5fiocrZk4VDeG6wi

Close race. Well done Kexkey and congrats.

IIRC philipma1957 already guessed -1.11%, so consider -1.01 to -1.25% taken :)

I'll go with +2.22 this time.

I guess that means the 2.01-2.25 range...

Thanks!

+3.89 (3.76-4.00)

yes thanks I will always guess that number.  (thank you in advance seriouscoin)

I'll take the wildcard: 0.00 to +0.25%

If I understand  the rules you just get 0.00.

the .01 - +0.25 is not part of the guess.

My guess is +3.2 (guessing that's 3.01 - 3.25)

Thanks for continuing with this awesome promo!!

I am going to go with 4.76-5.00%

From the looks of it the 1008 estimated hash rate is still significantly above the 2016 hash rate, although this could be because of a likely spike in luck at the end of the previous difficulty period.

I also find it very interesting as to how much difficulty went up when it just so happened to be extremely cold pretty much throughout the entire US.

I'd like to guess -3.16 so I guess the range of -3.0 to -3.25 please.

I would put between 5.01% and 5.25%. We might as well guess the same number as last time ;0

If you want the double reward - it's just the 0.00%, no range. Or you can choose 0.01 to 0.25%. Not both.

I really hope for a decline this time. With BTC still below $250 and the magic 0.2W hardware not yet available I find it hard to believe that so many miners are still making money.

My guess is 2.26 - 2.50

Hopefully my luck will be better this time around

edit: this is +2.26-2.50

(+2.26) to (+2.50)     correct? 

Please  use that ---   to   ----    makes it easy to read

Yes sorry. My guess is +2.26 to +2.50 percent (an increase).

Sorry for the confusion

My choice is +3.26---+3.5 if it is not taken yet.
It is kind of fun.

the last finish was really pretty good.

My preferred range is gone, so I will guess double: +6.26 to +6.50

3.95% - 4.20% all the wayyy !

;-)

This looks interesting
I'll go with + 2.75 to + 3 for the difficulty increase

+5.51% to +5.75%

I'm not sure this is a valid guess, I think it will have to be either (3.76 to 4.00) or (4.01 to 4.25) and you need to advise if your guess is an increase (+) or a decrease (-).

Just making sure your guess is valid, would hate for it to fall wrong for you   :)

my guess>

- 2.23 % to - 1.98 %

Because people are jerks: +0.01 to +0.25%

Year of the Sheep plus moon is in Leo plus swallows leaving before swifts

therefore

+2.01 to +2.25 (exact will be 2.13)

My guess is
+20%

Huh, I really wanted that 2% ish range but it seems taken.

Well, how about 4.51-4.75%...
Good luck guys.

Edit: Positive increase, not neg.

this range was on my mind :P
+4.25 to 4.50

You would have +4.26 - 4.50 (4.25 would belong with +4.01 - 4.25)

sorry!!!!!
beer+wine= ;D me

+4.26 - 4.50

Allright so 4.01-4.25

I'm not running the promo so don't wanna sound like I'm shouting the rules but....



"and you need to advise if your guess is an increase (+) or a decrease (-)"

Thanks Stu. I can make certain assumptions, e.g. if the -/+ sign is not specified it's probably a "+", but it's always better to have it spelled out explicitly.

Back on topic - hashrate is decreasing, but we're only about a 100 blocks in, so this could turn around quickly.

Allright so +4.01% - 4.25%

It will skyrocket as the usual !

I'll take +7.77%
Triple sevens eh?
+7.75 to 8%

at least you did not pick +6.66

I have -1.11

ever the optimist onward and upward.  you are most likely correct.

Already taken!  :)

-1.50 to -1.75

bah sorry
+2.51 to +2.75 (2.63) they were martins

OK - this time I'll take -2.26 to -2.5 (don't think that's taken yet?)  :)

i'll take +4.8 to +5.05

We are having an issue with picks.

I will try to clean it up.  the three right below I am not sure.



tarmi         has         - 2.23 to - 1.98       this needs a correction  perhaps -2.25 to -0.01?



tss                has          +4.80 to +5.05   this need a correction

as both +4.76 to +5.00 and +5.01 to +5.25

have been picked before you picked.  maybe +5.26 to +5.50?





DivineEruptus     has   +19.76 to +20.00------------------please confirm this pick





______________________________________________________________________

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think all of the below are good
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
______________________________________________________________________

philipma1957  has  -1.25   to    -1.01

Kexkey  has            +2.01 to   +2.25

tlhIlwI  has             +3.76 to  + 4.00

SimplisticStu has    +3.01 to  +3.25

Quickseller has        +4.76 to  + 5.00

TheAnalogKid has     -3.25 to   -3.01         Corrected  from (-3.0 to -3.25)

RedhatCat  has         +5.01  to   +5.25    

ScryptAsic has          +2.26 to + 2.50

Biodom      Has         +3.26  to +3.50

tertious993   has      +6.26 to +6.50

Herbpean     has       +4.01 to +4.25    

Jamphone   has          +0.01 to +0.25

buyandhold   has         +2.51 to +2.75  

armedmilitia     has       +4.51 to +4.75

mavericklm     has        +4.26 to +4.50

ezeminer         has        +7.76 to 8.00     corrected from    (+7.75 to +8.00)

RoadStress     has         -1.50 to - 1.75

davejh           has          -2.26 to  -2.50

Swordsoffreedom  has    +2.76 to +3.00    corrected from +2.75 to +3.00

But I need that .01% ;D

Missed mine at + 2.75 to 3%
Otherwise think that was everyone or I missed a dupe

got it  and corrected it    + 2.76 to + 3.00

this is up to date still need 2 members to make corrections.
and 1 member to confirm his or hers pick



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   current number is
 
(+5.23%)




Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   49,125,281,406 (+5.23%)
Adjust time:   After 1806 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):   319,929,489 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   8:15 (4.6 minutes ago)


https://bitcoincharts.com/   shows us negative

(-0.79%)

Blocks   344948
Total BTC   13.874M
 
Difficulty   46684376317
Estimated   46313734788 in 1804 blks
 
Network total   320589.512 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s----------------------------   6.00 blocks is 0%

Still missing my +5.51% to +5.75%

Yes :) Thanks

Two need to be corrected.

tarmi        has         - 2.23 to - 1.98       this needs a correction    perhaps -2.25 to -0.01?



tss               has          +4.80 to +5.05    this need a correction 

as both +4.76 to +5.00 and +5.01 to +5.25

have been picked before you picked.  maybe +5.26 to +5.50?


_____________________________________________________________________

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think all of the below are good
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
______________________________________________________________________

philipma1957  has  -1.25   to    -1.01

Kexkey  has            +2.01 to   +2.25

tlhIlwI  has             +3.76 to  + 4.00

SimplisticStu has    +3.01 to  +3.25

Quickseller has        +4.76 to  + 5.00

TheAnalogKid has     -3.25 to   -3.01         Corrected  from (-3.0 to -3.25)

RedhatCat  has         +5.01  to   +5.25     

ScryptAsic has          +2.26 to + 2.50

Biodom      Has         +3.26  to +3.50

tertious993   has      +6.26 to +6.50

Herbpean     has       +4.01 to +4.25     

Jamphone   has          +0.01 to +0.25

buyandhold   has         +2.51 to +2.75 

armedmilitia     has       +4.51 to +4.75

mavericklm     has        +4.26 to +4.50

ezeminer         has        +7.76 to 8.00     corrected from    (+7.75 to +8.00)

RoadStress     has         -1.50 to - 1.75

davejh           has          -2.26 to  -2.50

Swordsoffreedom  has    +2.76 to +3.00    corrected from +2.75 to +3.00

DivineEruptus     has   +19.76 to +20.00  confirmed

zebedee has              +5.51% to +5.75%

make it - 2.25 to - 2.01

Hmm my guess 5.21 to 5.50

Also philpma add deadlines for enteries ?

okay 5.26 to 5.50     would be your pick  and there is kind of an issue with that number . due to

 tss

 kind of picking wrong.

 for now I will reserve that number with tss as first then you second  but suchmoon is running this promo.

I will send you a pm.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


as for deadline look for suchmoon's info on that. here

MARCH 1st.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525

I'm assuming then that -0.01 to -0.25 is a proper guess? If so I'll take that if it's available.

+6.51 to +6.7 please as my  guess

+6.51 to +6.75 will enter it.

Thank you philipma1957 for keeping track of this. Here is the current "official" list, sorted by the diff. Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

--- anything starting with -3.26% and below is still available
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
--- -2.51 to -2.75% and -2.76 to -3.00% are still available
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% and -0.76 to -1.00% are still available
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD! :)
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
--- +0.26% to +2.00% are still available (7 intervals)
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
--- +3.51% to +3.75% is still available
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - it spans two intervals and both were taken at the time that post was made, so I can't make any assumptions here:
tss +4.8 to +5.05

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline... :)

I will try -0.76 to -1.00%

Thanks!

My guess is -2.51 to -2.75%

Lets see how this goes

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

I think you want -3.26% to -3.50%  

the max pick is only a  0.25 wide spread

so -3.26% to -3.50%  =   a 0.25  wide spread

This is really surprising.

yup, you are right, it is very late

My guess is -3.26 to - 3.50%

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has big drops so far.

feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under 144 norm
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under



May see more drops


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,863,011,820 (+4.67%) -----  this is high as of today
Adjust time:   After 1715 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):   320,009,031 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes------------------------  This is 0%
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (2.4 minutes ago)

+1,5 ---- +1,75

if available this will be my guess

True, I was forgetting about that.  People might start selling their spot and a new suchmoon-philipma-diff-contest-spot-marketplace would be born... Result of spot scarcity... Wow, what a vision I just got.   ;D

I don't see spots being worth that much. The spots only have a small range and even with under a day left it will be difficult to know with any good level of certainty that any particular spot will win.

It is a free market though and there is no reason not to embrace a free market if one develops.

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

yeah that is the down side.  upside is no ties.   and no surrounding a pick.

Ie.  I pick   -1.11%    and seriouscoin picks   -1.12%   then using another name from his work pc he picks -1.10%    thus surrounding my pick of -1.11%  making me a sure loser.

(well almost sure) .

Now I am in a range of -1.01% to -1.25 %   thus a full surrounding is not possible.

+3.51 to + 3.75

A4 you might want another number since that one has been claimed.

ok i'll take +5.26 to +5.50

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.


okay tss picked +5.26 to 5.50 at my suggestion  we now have 2 people at this range   UME and TSS   this is a one time exception due to confusion of picks .  if it comes in  I will pay one the .1 btc and suchmoon will pay the other.



@ A4Tech   you need to pick a different number there are a few in the zero to two range.

almost all realistic numbers are going  a few in the zero to two range are left. current different looks like

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.72)  


 Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,886,546,569 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1607 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):   337,622,576 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   15:40 (2.5 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ +0.32%



Blocks   345146
Total BTC   13.879M
 
Difficulty   46684376317
Estimated   46831914293 in 1606 blks
 
Network total   398022.617 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.15 / 504 s



no big jump up yet  510 block in and 1506 left.  


at this point in time.  + 0.26 to + 0.50 %   would be the winner according to bitcoincharts.com


yet   no one has that spot picked.

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats  ;D


Thanks!

Well looks like that block has been cracked. Looks like over 3.8million dollars in output

... and now we got 4 blocks in ~5 minutes.

A lot of blocks made on the 25th.

thanks.  i will pay closer attention to the available ranges on the next one.

to make things easier i'll switch to +1.76% to +2.00%

I think that one is open  .  it is yours I went back and checked.


to people picking  we have a few from +0.26% up to 1.50%  this is about 5 ranges.

I'll take 0.26% to 0.50%

There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10578375#msg10578375
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10580191#msg10580191

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

This is the last update before the deadline, so be careful when you post your guesses - I might not be able to warn you if something is wrong.

Deadline is 04:00 (4 AM) UTC March 1st, 2015.

To avoid time zone confusion - here is a countdown:

http://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/20150301040000am/w5310/1/Bitcointalk_Diff_Guess

--- anything starting with -3.51% and below is still available
wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
--- -2.76 to -3.00% is still available
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% are still available
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD! :)
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
--- +0.51% to +1.50% are still available (4 intervals)
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10578375#msg10578375
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10580191#msg10580191

nice clean up suchmoon


diff is now (+2.67%) at bitcoinwisdom


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,928,820,035 (+2.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1349 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   348,484,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:5 (1.5 minutes ago)

Bitstamp breached $250. Still a lot of time to go in this cycle, so if the exchange rate holds or climbs higher we might see some effect from that.

Not a huge jump so far:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,430,052,314 (+3.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1319 Blocks, About 9.1 days

Also its nice to have the bump in price.  Hopefully it continues for a bit.

yeah 255 usd is hopeful.

0.00% lets see .

my understanding is that 0.00 is is actually an interval between >-0.01; <+0.01, and even for this interval the award should have been roughly 10-12X from a statistical point of view.

The probability of it being exactly +/-0.00X with X being less than 5, rounded to 0.00 IS smaller still (about 1/25 of each other interval).

Our other cat says +1.26 to +1.5.

Personally I think it will likely be a little higher, but there aren't many slots this late in the game...

It's fun what this thread has become. Kind of like a crowded craps table  :)

Bitcoinwisdom's percentages are rounded to two decimal places, so I think it would show 0.00 only if the actual percentage is > -0.005 and < 0.005 (because 0.005 and up would round to 0.01).

So yeah, the double reward is grossly unfair if that's what you're trying to say but there is no way I'm going to offer 2.5 BTC for it ;D


Early cat gets the worm. Although with the hashrate still wobbling around unchanged almost halfway into the cycle - it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down ;D

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier ;)

no one is gambling  as no one is putting up any coin.  It is a free promo.

Now if you wanted to charge a fee more players is better.

Since it is free if the number was .1     -20 to +20 is  400 players   vs 160 players under current rules.

It is hard  to keep track now.

Back to topic we are at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,271,445,116 (+3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1205 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   350,555,257 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (3.4 minutes ago)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over
feb 27  155 blocks      11 over
feb 28  141 blocks        3 under

6 full days = 872   normal = 864   we are 0.92 % over  if you include part of feb 22 we are around 1.15%

I'll take +1.01% to 1.25%

I put together a Google sheet that, if I did it right, should track the current day's status live (you might need to go to Tools -> Script Editor -> Run -> currentBlockNumber if the data isn't current, it should then stay live. This is definitely a work-in-progress, has to be updated by hand at midnight EST for now, and I'm sure there's more than a few mistakes (our numbers are a bit off, for one), so feel free to use, criticize, or ignore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

FINAL LIST

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

NEW ENTRIES FOR THE REWARD ARE NOT ALLOWED ANYMORE, but please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc  ;D

wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! :)
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%

I think it looks great.

very nice work on that google sheet.

 right now at 925 am east coast time we are at +1.16%  .

  This is a current live number and in an hour a 10ph farm could turn online for the first time thus moving the 1.16 to 2.22.  I am glad to see you took the time to give us a live number.  thanks again.

we are now at 0.72%    120 pm east coast time  that is the live number.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

that sheet basically takes both www.bitcoincharts.com

and http://btc.blockr.io/charts   combines the two and make it real time.

 I just checked the google sheet and at 1036 pm we are at a real time 0.00% !!


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has  (+2.42%)  for a future prediction



Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,814,895,004 (+2.42%)
Adjust time:   After 985 Blocks, About 6.8 days                            the projected number is for 985 more blocks.
Hashrate(?):   335,785,423 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (4.8 minutes ago)

I'm pretty happy with this.  It appears its going to be a small increase which considering BTC having a little increase all is fine with me.

I would love -1 to + 1 .  then have  btc go to 315 or so.

 The live number at 947 am New Jersey USA time  is +0.82%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is projecting (+3.55%)   we have 909 blocks to go and price is 255 usd

Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.

So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.

My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.

Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.

Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..

I do appreciate your work on this.  As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.

I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io  but your spread sheet nailed it.

It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current  BTC price  it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers

I've been watching BitcoinWisdom jumping above, below, and occasionally within my 3.76 - 4.0 guess which has been fun.  Today it is farther away (4.98 at the moment).  Still plenty of time though...

price went up so more miners went on line.

I think we are now past 280 usd a coin

Still a few days to go but ha-ha with that range of people someones going to hit the mark
Think it might decrease difficulty a bit more but at 5% that's about right given the price rises

Just popping in here to gloat about my soon-to-be victory!  ;)

You know, you can manipulate this contest a bit if you manage to find the last block of the period. You can adjust the block timestamp up to an hour ahead or behind the current time to actually push the difficulty a tiny bit down or up.

I'll blame it on this manipulation if I lose.

lookin' at the btc price trend  :'( i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under,  we may see negative dif again

I am not sure the chances of the price being under $220 for long enough to make a difference are very good. There is only ~4.4 days left until the next adjustment and the price would need to be below that level at least a good two to three days prior to the adjustment in order for it to have any meaningful impact on the difficulty change.

I would say it is more likely that more miners will be turned back on as the price has recently increased

that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.

yes :(

RedhatCAT long run man, not just 1 diff jump ;)

Well, at least we all loaded up on cheap mining hardware, didn't we?  ;D

Should be able to survive a few 10% jumps.

I added a Log tab that records the estimated difficulty change every minute and charts it - it's been in there since yesterday but I had to scrap a bunch of data due to a mistake I made during the switch to the next day. Hopefully that will help visualize the trend.

I will take a long look at it tonight.   I think your spreadsheet is the only place for a real time diff number on the net.  Pretty nice work by you.

The projected difficulty is creeping back down... maybe I'm still in this yet!

Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.

You always can hope a farm burns down. ;D

Or gets stolen  :o

Or someone forgets to pay the power bill: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.msg10650588#msg10650588

I wonder what would happen to the difficulty if China ever had a widespread power outage...

Edit: Hey! 3.93%  It's in my range again!

It looks like ghash.io has been out for a few hours. Not everyone has backup pools set. Their share of the hashrate has dropped significantly, but that could be slowing things down. Or variance.

Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.

Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.

yep and many will just flip a switch.  I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes.  Back down to 0 in 20 seconds.  Many others can do the same.

The s-3's  can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2  minutes. 

There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.

 My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.

With this article : http://www.coindesk.com/is-518-the-fair-price-of-bitcoin/

Do you think people will switch one the miner is the perspective of getting more bitcoin before the price go up?

Does anyone know the Benjamin Graham formula and could explain me this formula and the quatlity of it?

can wait to see the next diff change!

Would you really do that depending on price? I mean it only matters if and when you need to exchange BTC to fiat to pay the power bill, not when you mine those coins. So if I'm paying monthly, and my bill exceeds revenue for the last month and I don't see it getting better next month then I might consider switching it off.

Another consideration is resale value, I might want to switch it off sooner and dump it on eBay and replace it with better hardware if the numbers add up.

On small scale I think a lot of us just mine even at a tiny loss.  Bigger companies  may have 100 s-3's or 1000 s-3's and 100 or 1000 s-5's

Just mine the s-5's 24/7  and turn the s-3's on and off.

A few days back  both nice hash and west hash were paying 0.0115 and coins were 280.  now you are at 0.0103 and coins are 265. that is a big drop off .

Flick a switch and don't mine your s-3's .

  I am not saying it as a reality but as a dollar and cents profit or loss it works.  I could see 1-2ph getting turned off based on the 2 drops above.

It dropped below my prediction range due to dropping prices
Wonder if it will keep going or stabilize

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,464,940,925 (+1.67%)
Adjust time:    After 447 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?):    339,183,411 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
   
Updated:    12:40 (43.0 seconds ago)

actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

Yes these hashrates are pretty much impossible to predict.

The price is almost 30% higher then it was a few weeks ago and then the difficulty started rising, but now with the higher price is halts.

Makes no sense.

GHash.IO have been having trouble all day with their hash rate so I'm guessing this has directly impacted difficulty

It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?  :P

no.

ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.

that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent

Do you have any basis for the amount of mining capacity that went to backup pools or is that just speculation?

---

I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).

(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.

Don't know why they crashed but they did.  Now a big farm going down is a sudden rate drop and it does happen once in a while.  A big pool also gets knocked off line  while many do have rollover set up some don't.  Also if you had an ant miner with only 3 pools ghash then west hash then nicehash yould could get burned.

You'd think the big mining datacenters (which comprise the majority of the network hashrate by now IIRC) would have better failover pools. I personally just have westhash ---> slush, but I'm a small time miner. Shouldn't bigger miners have at least two stable pools? Something like westhash ---> ghash ---> slush. I don't think the smaller miners will have much of an effect anymore, especially considering how spread out they are among pools.

Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.

Wouldn't you think that if the ASICMINER farm had caught fire that the hash rate would have fallen months ago when AMHASH stopped receiving mining revenue as opposed to months later? I don't think the fact that it is related that it just came out that AMHASH has no actual current actual mining revenue around the same time the network hash rate fell dramatically

Ah yes! I forgot that AMHASH said they stopped receiving the revenue a while back. Maybe it was a veeery slow fire.
Well, I guess you fried that theory.  ;)

at 11:16 pm east coast it is  +1.19%

With 380 blocks to go and exchange rate at ~$270 I'd say +2% to +4% seems likely.

well looks like a small positive  for sure.

I like that range  ;D

for a miner, the incoming diff jump is a blessing! ;D ;D ;D

At 6:51 am east coast  it is  +1.49% we have 335 blocks to go.


on feb 22 price was around 245

on march 6 price is about   272  this is a jump of 11%

diff is up 1.50%

lets keep up this pace for a few jumps.

I certainly welcome a higher price without a big jump in difficulty.  My spreadsheet says that I do not need to lower voltages on this adjustment (which makes 3 in a row now). 

I haven't had time to read the entire AMHASH catastrophee but can somebody sum up what happened exactly?

Their large cloud mining shut off and thats the reason why the hashrate is low this week?

Their cloud mining did not shut off but allegedly changed hands and no longer belongs to AM/AMHash. Even if it did affect the hashrate that didn't happen this week (issue started back in December) and it was only 3.5 PH/s or around 1%.

Edit: I guess I should provide a better answer to #1. AMHash (the cloud mining operator that signs up customers and pays dividends) and ASICMiner (the hardware owner that actually mines the coins) are two separate entities and ASICMiner stopped paying in December claiming their hardware had been "stolen" by a "partner", but they would replace it and start mining again soon. AMHash kept paying its customers in hopes that mining would restart and nobody would get hurt but that hasn't happened so the whole thing is collapsing. There are also some unconfirmed rumors about a kidnapping of one of the ASICMiner execs.

yes this is doing something .  also ghash.io dropped its mining for more then 10 hours which could make as much as 5 to 10 ph vanish.

Also  maybe someone with a big s-3   mine at 10 cents sold all the gear to this company which can mine at 3 cents

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=976450.0


or maybe 5 small mines with 500th in s-3's sold the gear to them.  while it ships it is not hashing.  A good sign for this to be true will be if

A) next jump is bigger 4-6%
B) no new gear is listed .

That would mean a good chance a lot of s-3's were moved.

S-3's getting shifted from 10 cent to 3 cent mines is good.

as new gear will not sell well in bulk amounts  until all s-3s are removed from the network or are mining at 3 cent locations.

If I have lots of 3 cent power 50 usd s-3s are better then 400 dollar sp20e's.

at 11;29 PM EAST COAST TIME +1.19%

BASICALLY STAYED FLAT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS !!
 

239 blocks to go

most likely max jump will not exceed 5%  we would need to do  the 239 blocks in 1 day to go over 5% .  That won't happen most

 likely  +1 to +3%

+0.51 to +1.00  was left empty

+1.01 to +5.75 are all filled up.

see below:



jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD! Smiley
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%



I do not think it will go  higher then zebedee or lower then  jmunich  but you never know.  It would be funny if it is one of  the two missing picks.

Something is messed up with Ghash.io pool

Current block is 19 hours with 17Ph/s

and 2 blocks prior it took 10 hours with 13Ph/s.

yes they have been a big factor in this lower rate.

I think it really depends on if you are right in saying that the massive drop in hash rate was due to ghash going down.

If you are correct then the miners would have been only effectively temporary taken offline and that hash power would have effectively be put back on the network, and all else being equal the estimated next difficulty will rise from where it is now.

If however the drop in hash rate was due to some amount of miners being "permanently" being taken offline then the average block time will continue to fall and will decrease the estimated next difficulty verses where we are now.

Well lets say we are down 20ph due to ghash.  even it they all come back perfectly as I snap my fingers we jump from 340ph to 360ph  with the amount of blocks left in this adjustment it is too hard to go up to 5 %.  But next jump we will go up a lot.

this entire year the most blocks made in 1 day has been about 166.  so if we do that pace   we go over 2% but under 3% in the next 24 hours.

I for one like any number under 3%  .  price is up about 10%   and diff at 3% works well against that number.

You are right, we are pretty much guaranteed not to have the difficulty increase by more then 5%. However if it was ghash that caused the hash rate to temporarily fall then the next adjustment will likely be slightly above where the current trend would indicate, so I would estimate somewhere in the mid 2% range. If the fall in hash rate was not primarily due to ghash then the next adjustment will be below what the current trend would indicate and we could potentially see sub 1% or even potentially a slightly negative adjustment.

---

If you are measuring your profits in terms of fiat, and you must to some extent because your electric costs are in fiat then yes the current situation is good for you because the price is rising faster then the difficulty, which means that when measured in fiat your profits go up after the difficulty goes up.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

sat the 7th east coast time is 10:30 am

estimate is 0.97%

there is a chance no one will pick the correct number we have 2 empty slots.


jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%


As time runs down we look to stay in the ranges above.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 

they have 1.23%

 BTC at 270.50 usd

so if things hold lets say +1% diff and +15% price change for this adjustment.

This is a win for miners. 2 or 3 diff adjustment periods of +1%  for diff and + 15% for price and mining will look a lot better.

It is pretty amazing to see Ghash go from worried about 51 percent to a smaller pool.  If you look at last 24 hours they are only 2 percent of blocks found. https://blockchain.info/pools

I will be happy if we get the 1 percent raise only with btc price slowly going up.

BTC world is a roller-coaster ride for sure.

Just  159 blocks to go.  even if they were all made in a few hours we would only go to +5%.  With price up 17% that works for me.

Since this entire year we have not made 159 blocks in less then 20 hours.  2%-2.5% looks like the max  jump.  more likely  +.076% to 2%

Would be funny if one of the  two empty ranges come in.

Well I think it is concerning that ~54% of the network hash rate is made up of pools based in china (and likely have a lot of their miners based in china).

It is my understanding that a lot of miners in china are actually very large mining farms, often controlled by a small group of people with some groups controlling multiple farms.

As long as builders sell some home mining gear things will work out.  Home miners are a safety net for BTC   here is why:

 we can put the heat to use.
My house is in NJ, USA
A wicked cold winter has been in progress.  In my development 2 or 3 homes have had frozen pipes not me.  WHY btc miners set in spots where pipes may freeze.

See this thread


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=951758.0

I ran one for more then 1 month I ran an sp20 in the room and I ran an s-5 in the room.

Basically I used 1000 watts to mine in this spare bedroom since dec 1st.   It is under my kitchen and reduces the danger of pipe freeze to 0.

If I did not mine I would of ran this at 600 watts for the last 3 months

http://cache.air-n-water.com/images/ah-450-main-l.jpg

Bitcoinwisdom is showing an estimated next difficulty of +1.13% and the spreadsheet is showing that the network  is on pace for a 1.05% increase, but the 3 day moving average is -2.79% so the estimate is on a downtrend. With only 123 blocks to go I would say the chances of the difficulty adjustment falling within the unclaimed range of +.5 to +1.0% is pretty high right now.

Wow. That's getting close to my cat's guess. If it was just a little higher...

Perhaps if I use enough conviction, I can tell the difficulty what value it should be.

Attention Difficulty! Obey my cat! You will be +1.26%! Or a little higher. But no higher than +1.50!

yeah  if we get  a carry over   my pick is once again -1.11%    so what ever slot  that falls into is mine.

Pretty amazing if it falls into the carry over number.

But it is right there as of now.

Where is my name sir?

you have 0 according to the list   you could get lucky

Phillip / suchmoon:
Have you been running different threads like this for some time?
Do you plan to continue?
This is fantastic and since the cutoff was March 1, I hope I may be involved in the next one.

I think this type of common sense information is exciting to understand, and speculation threads are teaching me what I consider to be data points and truly appreciate the information from what I also consider some of the more valued community members.

Please let me extend my compliments to all of the people who share the wisdom gleaned from their experiences and sharp minds. I appreciate what experience, attitude, and aptitude you all bring to the table.

I sincerely look forward to participating!

Please do not consider me easily amused, but certain topics have always seized my attention in a way my ex-wives called unhealthy, but they are ex-wives so who cares :)

@ sloopy 

right now it looks like no one will win.  So we will have a carryover.  Suchmoon is paying the awards I don't know how many more he will do.

I will run a new  thread  on diff for all of 2015.  I am not sure if suchmoon wants to keep up the promo part that long. It would be more then 2btc if he did.  say 26 to 30 jumps at .1 btc =

2.6 to 3 coins


Back to current numbers


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053

 real time number is  +0.84% only 35 blocks left. 

22 blocks left

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  reads (+1.27%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053     reads (+85%)


 so it looks like


jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

but these are the best chance

Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%

+.51 to +1.00   ---------------------------no takers  we are in this area right now


alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%

3 blocks left.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(+1.58%)




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053


(+1,24%)



bitcoinwisdom is the final word on the number

Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%

Congratulations to SunnyIgor!

Please let me know your BTC address.

Damn, I plain forgot about this one until after the first of March. But would not have been this low anyway, probably 3-4% or so.

how can u not love the way thing go atm:

low diff
low temps
low priced miners

i don't care about btc price cause i trust the bastard! and i never sold one satoshi!

once suchmoon and sunnyIgor are squared away I will lock this.

Thank you very much!

this was the most exiting time i watched the charts!

my add:
1UPNPUMVMrnvyLq1bM2QEi58HyELxHF2B

yeah 50-56 days of this would be nice.


4 jumps under 2% and price drifts to 325 usd.

 lets  say on  may 5th  the  diff is 50 and btc is 325.

Thank you - sorry for the delay - some weekend stuff got in the way. I'll be taking care of this now.

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/424c8fbaa07d806eee1c197bd6c35e74f480840303ebd4acd810de779000e0a5

Thanks for participating!

I have 0.7 set aside, so about 3 months. After that it depends on how my mining business is doing.

Sounds good I am locking this one up.

New thread is here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=982118.0

placing these in time order

now it is correct