Bitcoin Forum

Will I make it?

Any timeline?

If you're still valuing your bitcoins based on an exchange rate, you're doing it wrong.

5 years would be ideal... after that I might give up




How else would I measure its purchasing power? If I don't value it by its purchasing power how else should it be valued??

I'm sure the OP would sell you all of his BTC for $690/BTC.  I'll cut you a bargain and sell mine at $400/BTC.

Edit:  I was very surprised to read this comment from you.

Learn chines and ask in chines subforum
whay because china control
btcchina   5,307,767 BTC   36.80 %   CNY
okcoin   3,915,284   BTC 27.15 %   CNY USD
huobi   1,969,329   BTC 13.66 %   CNY
bitfinex   1,214,340 BTC    8.42 %   USD
lakebtc   376,095   2.61 %

total market share in last 6 month 88,64 % total Bitcoin market
if china bay BTC easy BTC go to 1000$ if sale easy go to 1$

Eu control 6%
Usa control 4-5%
Also i sale my BTC if come to 300$

Try not to think of it as losing money. Think of it as gaining power pellets :P

Eventually. Sit on your paper losses until then.
If you have some extra cash, buy now to bring the break even price down.

I do, but I also put in ~$25K into bitcoin in the last year, which is a lot already, should I really risk more.... bitcoin price recovering is still uncertain

If you have patience you will regain your loses.

How much patience..... are we talking 2 years or 20 years?

You should be able to make it, as Bitcoin will gain value over time. The time period is something you should be concerned with, as it may take years ;)

I think that's a sensible time frame. We'll know whether it has a chance of kicking off properly long before that. The biggest hurdles are likely to be surmounted over the course of the next couple of years.

Exchange rate != purchasing power.

Purchasing power parity is tough to determine, the Big Mac index that the Economist publishes is your best bet. What you should do is look at how many BTC are required to buy 1 Big Mac over the next 5 years (on average). You'll know deep in your bones what inflationary vs. deflationary means then ;)

Best if can average down your price to about $300-400, since bitcoin now is cheap..

Fuck your shitty XRP bullshit.... please go

Yeah, you can get even in 2 or three years. I would hope that we reach it in 2015, but I think we're gonna see that price again October of 2016. Maybe a bit before then. Then we're gonna get to $800+ sometime after the halving coming December 2016. But that's just a guess.

Sounds like speculation but oh well.  How patient are you?  Also, usually if you have to ask it's a bad sign.  Never good to be in a position of weakness when it comes to economics.  Usually turns out bad.  But I hope it turns out well for you (hope is also usually a curse in financial issues)  money = hope

How much do you hold currently?

Five years to break even - reach $690? Are you kidding me? At current Bitcoin growth, I believe that Bitcoin will reach $700 in two years time. And probably over a thousand in five years.

By the end of this year, you should make it. If you have 5 BTC that you bought at 690$ in average, you could buy 5 more BTC at 260$ and profit at 475$ ;)

How do you figure the exchange rate isn't equal to purchasing power?  Whether you exchange 1 BTC for $260 or several dozen Big Macs, the exchange rate is $260 or several dozen Big Macs respectively.  The purchasing power of any currency is whatever you are able to exchange it for.

You will make it, but the question is why? It has to become even more mainstream then it is today

Yes, maybe you will make it after the halving. But before that you can only hope. How about start working to earn that loss back.

Yes, we will get thereabouts again in the 2nd half of the year. Or so I think,.

I, like many others in this thread believe it to start happening in 2016-2017.

I also took the risk and exchanged fiat to BTC starting early 2014 to September which, in total, were slashed with more than 60% on an average, I decided to cut more than half of my holdings as losses, and convert back to fiat and diversify more into a few selected safe stocks, and I am not currently buying any more BTC because I believe we might see it lower or not moving for some time, which is not necessarily a bad thing considering price stability is much needed, but I am taking some precautions this time regarding speculating. I also think a lot of projects got funded in BTC and converted it to fiat, and most of these projects have not yet returned that value back to BTC yet, because building things and getting a userbase take time.

If circumstances were to change I would be ready, but I think 2016 will be the year good APPs expand outside of crypto after having a development phase within, which will be good for the ecosystem, currently it is too difficult to use many of the perks BTC offers which hinders mass adoption, and also it is not as low fees as it could be since exchanges and other services have some fees, competition will drive these fees down. I am also excited over what Ethereum might bring to the table.

All in all if you want to be more sure about your investment, try becoming involved and making a difference for crypto so that we can approach mass adoption faster.  

Some people predicted that BTC wil be 1000$ at the end of the last year. But it didn't. So, who knows. But I don't think that it will come there soon.

this year could end with a much higher rate, many think that the big price will come with the halving, i would say much early than that, like it was for doge

That is a realistic assumption.

You missed a digit.  Most agreed that BTC would be worth more than $10,000. by now :-\  http://www.coindesk.com/56-of-bitcoiners-believe-bitcoin-will-reach-10000-in-2014/

Bitcoin is objectively superior to any other way to exchange value, history will give this objective fact it's time to shine, translated in a massive high price. Bitcoin is a part of nature (it came from a person's brain), nature always finds it's way to make strong things survive, Bitcoin will win via good ol Darwinism.

~40 BTC


That's what I'm hoping


It wasn't a question... I'm telling him who much I'm already risking and why I probably shouldn't risk more.

Sell my bitcoins now? LOL.... yeah, that sounds stupid

The concept of purchasing power parity allows one to estimate what the exchange rate between two currencies would have to be in order for the exchange to be at par with the purchasing power of the two countries' currencies. Using that PPP rate for hypothetical currency conversions, a given amount of one currency thus has the same purchasing power whether used directly to purchase a market basket of goods or used to convert at the PPP rate to the other currency and then purchase the market basket using that currency. Observed deviations of the exchange rate from purchasing power parity are measured by deviations of the real exchange rate from its PPP value of 1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity)

Edit to add:

PPP exchange rates help to minimize misleading international comparisons that can arise with the use of market exchange rates. For example, suppose that two countries produce the same physical amounts of goods as each other in each of two different years. Since market exchange rates fluctuate substantially, when the GDP of one country measured in its own currency is converted to the other country's currency using market exchange rates, one country might be inferred to have higher real GDP than the other country in one year but lower in the other; both of these inferences would fail to reflect the reality of their relative levels of production. But if one country's GDP is converted into the other country's currency using PPP exchange rates instead of observed market exchange rates, the false inference will not occur.

Halving didnt do much for dogecoin.. lets hope its different for Bitcoin.

Halving does not affect the price. That is a myth.

How long are you willing to wait? How many Bitcoins do you have?

I am sure one day the price will reach the point where you would have broken even, made a profit but the question is will you be around on that day  ???

A lot of people who think this question will be gone long before imo

Good luck either way.

If you believe bitcoin price will rise again, just buy another coin at this time prices. It will reduce your previous bitcoin price. The method called bitcoin cost averaging

You will brake even but then what you sell and walk away? Should be thinking business what is it you can do to make many more bitcoin  ???

Buy more to reduce your break-even now before its too late, Bitcoin is going to rally..

Lots of bagholders and dumpers waiting price to rise so they can dump  :( That's why moon is no more possible

Fear Of Missing Out affects people holding coins too. If you've sat since $1000 and it looks like that's going to be smashed again, a good chunk of bag holders will sit back and see what happens. That's what they were hoping for in the first place.

I am willing to wait 5 years.... I have around 40 bitcoin




Either you're a foreigner or a real pot head... couldn't understand anything you said


Shut the fuck up... everyone has a price they are willing to buy or sell at... there are only about 10million people who own/use bitcoin.... if this number reaches 100-200million people there is no way the price can stay this low

Aha ^^ he was answering your question why the attitude?  Also Harry was clearly saying in his own way you should think about what you can do as a business to make more bitcoin instead of wishing it will go to $690 which is not going to come btw you may aswell sell now  ;D

If I could come up with a business just like that and become a self-employed CEO, I would, trust me. Easier said than done.. and lol at might was well sell now. I rather wait for a change to profit, or let it go to $0

That is the spirit and i am in the same boat i will not sell though until i have a nice return on my investment i see it like stocks and you do not sell stocks at break even or at a loss do ya, also you do not spend them on coffee and whatever else we can buy with them at the moment. You have payed over the odds for your coin as you know but most of us have, can you afford to keep buying to lower your original investment maybe get that down to 4 or 500? Does not have to be a big business something like a faucet a gambling site of some kind and online btc shop this industry is begging people to start up

That is a lot it owes you dude if i had money spare i would have kept buying to get that average down and make it easier to get back to even/profit. The thing is though how much do you need to but to get the average down i mean if you have hundreds of coin then you will need to buy hundreds more to make a impact  :)

 

I have money to cost avg down but I feel like if bitcoin will be successful I will be in the green in a few years; if bitcoin fails then I'm already losing a LOT of money and dont want to risk more. Also, I lost a total of 9 btc from trading alt coins... My break even point at one time was $1300/btc.... I already bought that down to $690

Spending more to 'reduce' your losses seems a bit daffy to me. I'm currently underwater which I fully expected there to be phases of going into it. I've no plans to buy significant amounts more as I have what I set out to obtain and stuck with it. I'll start to feel narked if I'm still underwater in 2017.

If you are thinking short term...I am not quite sure if you might be able to make it or not...but have some faith...hold on to your coins for a while and just wait for the prices to stabilize again. I am quite sure that you will be able to walk away with at least a little profit over the next couple of months.

Oh i see that was a pain in the ass, losing 9btc on alts  :-\ i guess to average down you need to believe that bitcoin is going to rise. That is wise holding back knowing your limit and when not to invest more good self control 'thumbs up' Maybe buy little bits on the next dip next week and hopefully get that down to 500 but of course you know your limits and the number one rule do not invest more than you can afford to lose is so true

690 is easy, but you will need to be patient. Once the next bubble catches it will easily go over 1000.

I would love to hear your explanation to why you believe 690 and 1000 will be easy!? We only ever went that high before because of a dodgy exchange pumping it, what will make it raise around 3-4 times the current price?

No need to worry, bitcoin price will eventually rise. in terms of the bigger picture BTC is a bargain even at $1000.  BTC will be in the thousands next year, though saying that I'm glad i didn't buy any $1000 bitcoins

I bought a couple too high, but I knucked down and bought more near the bottom. You should have done that.

one bitcoin will probably be towards 100k at the end of 2020 , this is just my theory tho. Bitcoin will have their 10 year millenium , and that will certainly bring some updates and hopefully some awesome news.

You assume the bottom has already been reached?  ;D

^lol wut?

My prediction is October(2015)-Jan(2016) is when it should start to pick up to at least prices close to yours. Unless there's another pump and dump. :-\

neither the top is been reached, at least we are in the rise phase now, despite all the troll/haters who want noobs to dump

I am a luckyish investor i guess, i managed to get in at the low 200's but could have been luckier and got in for a few dollars.

Take advice OP and if you can afford is average down your investment you may get it down to 4 or 500 which you should get this year hopefully  ;D

It may not but we are definitely on a uptrend now. We are going to see 300+ for sure before a potential correction.

My bet's on about 3-5 years before it goes much above $300. By that time there may be a replacement, but BTC will be the first, and humans are very nostalgic.

I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin really was trading at these levels sometime in the future.

Whoah it will be sooner than that pal we are looking at that by the end of this year if it does nothing then it will likely drop not rise  :o

I assume nothing. I prepare for surprise bear-raid buttsecs at a moments notice. I have special pants.

Out of curiosity, how much did you invest?
Here's my prediction. One of the two will happen by the end of the year:

- Bitcoin will be under $100
- Bitcoin will be over $1000

There's no place in between.

~$26K


That's what I think too, so I could cost avg down more but I don't want to risk any more money than I already have

Depends on how much do you need it and by when. short answer no.

Yes, you will make it even faster when you buy some extra right now.
June we're probably above 500, after that it's sideways untill half 2016, then we start a slow increase which will turn out in a hyper bubble to 1 trillion around 2020.

So, no worries.
Sit back and enjoy the way up.

No my friend. In case of bitcoin bottom is yet to reach. I am still amused how - after some period of time bitcoin price can drop to some alarming values. It is just something that remind me that nothing is certain in cryptocurrency world. One day you are a millionaire and next day you have next to nothing.

There was a minor dip, about $17 in the last few hours. It's been bouncing back an forth for the past few days now.

Im sorry but i have to scratch that out for you, since there is no logical or techical indication that bitcoin could go to or about 100$, there is simply too much support under the 200 line to allow it.
And what makes you believe that bitcoin will go above 1k $ this year ?
You obviously got this wrong, since the price to all logical and technical guidelines actually does belong in between. for this year to be more precise. And by next years end is definetly time
for op to break even,few months before halving.

cheers

No, you won't since you are doing it the wrong way, right from the start. Simple but working strategy - when you see that the rate is falling and your losses are accumulating, sell a small part of your funds and then wait. If you see that the decline continues, buy up what you sold, then repeat. If the rate begins to increase, just let your profits grow.

It has been boucing back from 180$ to 270$ now and it will likely keep going to break 300$ soon.

Are you aware that Bitcoin is just 6 years old?
In this perspective 5 years seems like a really long time.

We've seen you can't apply classic logic to the bitcoin price. Trying to predict this is like trying to predict the weather. But indeed there seems to be big ass support in 200 area, even tho rallys can happen both ways and no one can predict when the price decides to crash harder or go ape shit reaching a new ATH.

Don't give yourself excuse to break even. Since you have waited for quite some time why not just hang on there a little. I don't expect price to gain a lot during the halving which is supposed to be around next year but there is a high probably we'll see bitcoin crawling up to the previous high after the following halving.

You expect it to approach $1000 around 2020? I think it'll be long abandoned by all but the ultimate die hards if it isn't much, much bigger by then.

Is this your break-even too, and are you going to sell your bitcoins as soon as they reach 600$? In other words, did you lose your faith by now?

Thats not a good way to measure PP, you need a basket of goods not just 1 item to measure the real PP.

Try the CPI index or CPE, that will be better.

So basically check every item listed in the CPI, and see for how much you can buy it in Bitcoin directly, not the converted price from dollar.

That should see that bitcoin is deflationary. Don't even look at fiat because it can be misleading...

He's delusional to think "1000$ by 2020" is optimistic. We'll reach that within two years again no doubt.

It will be easy IF there is another bubble. Even if BTC does not work in the long term I feel there is at least one bubble remaining.

I have no doubt that BTC will reach $1000 within next two years. I just wonder when the price will always be higher than $1000.

The next block reward halving in 2016 could be a trigger.
The supply of bitcoins dumped in the market would reduce and could trigger an increase in price.

I do not think so. Any reward halving would already be priced in.

Besides, the forces behind bubbles are considerably more than the amount of coins being generated.

If only price changes would be related to the incoming halvings... gonna be too easy :)

Halving will lose it's effect over time, but I think, the next one will still have a lot of influence.

As predicted we are seeing a small correction again after hitting 300, before we consolidate above 300 again, probably a good idea to buy in this 270 ish dip.

I would just hold for a few more years and see where it goes, you can invest in some other Alts if you wanna try your luck, but best bet is to just hold and hope for the best.

I wouldn't call this fall a small correction (more than 10% decline, by the way). The price is now around 267$ per coin. I'm afraid that the recent surge was only a minor pump-and-dump effort of sorts (it ended suspiciously too quickly), and now we can go even further down to 250 and below (to the earlier established levels)...

Once we break the last ATH again the floor will be 1000 no doubt. We'll go to like 1800, or even 2000 or god knows, then if there is a second crash, when we approach 1000 people will panic buy.

you need waiting 2 year for bitcoin back to $600

There are too many bagholders for it to ever go that high again. You bought the bubble. You weren't the only one

I agree, I think it is going to eventually hit the 300-350 state and rest there. The $1000 state is long gone and is probably not coming back any time within the next 10 Years.

Not anytime soon.  I dont see it going over $500 unless something really big happens worth bitcoins.

Maybe in 2015 summer it will hit : 500$ or more but for the moment I don't think 690$ is easy
Maybe after the summer BTC price will drop again ...

why do you think bitcoin will up again in summer 2015?
any upcoming special event happen at that time? bitcoin ETF?

Late 2015, early 2016 you'll get even.

Hmmm...we'll see.  I'm  new to cryptocoins and am curious as to where this is all heading myself.I didn't buy any until after that parabolic spike.  Feels like the precious metals market almost.

It should see $690 again in at least 3 years or less.
But clearly you're in a tough position when you bought so much at such a high price.
All I can recommend you to do is... Hold!

Yes, i agree, unless he needs the funds immediately, he should hold. No reason why to sell now, the price of it is stable and eventually if you wait it out i will get back above 690$.

Of course it can also go to 0, but that means that the whole project will fade away and something better comes along, much better, and if thats the case then he`ll have another opportunity to get rich quick...

crystall ball too much?

300 is near, 690 is just little above the double of that, a willy bot clone or anything similar, can point bitcoin to that value in no time

remember that the 1200 was reached in a few steps and was a random thing

Not really. That's pretty much the best way to value them until you can buy goods whose prices are not tied to the exchange rate.

Of course. The bitcoin infrastructure is growing by the day. Eventually that $1100ish all time high will look like nothing, Enjoy the ride

If you can just keep your BTC. Nobody knows where the price will go, but I think it will go up again!

Welll, I think BTC is becoming more and more mass currency and its value will probably stagnate over the time. Don't think that it will be that high again.

I think we will make it back there. I think people just need patience. Bitcoin has only reach a tiny part of its potential, we just have to wait for the rest of the world to realize this and get involved.


What are we meant to value it by? Some people have invested x amount per coin and need it to reach that to break even or see a profit.

When BTC becomes a mass currency, and everybody wants to have/use some BTC, how much will it be?

Write loads of numbers on some paper between $1-$10.000, rip the different numbers apart on the paper and throw them in the air, close your eyes and feel your way to one of the bits of paper which ever you choose that will be the price.

Just relax. If I were you I would continue to hold on to my stash. My prediction will be that after the next halving, I mean the second one, will we start to see the price gradually go up. And whatever happens right  now, shouldn't become a worry because at this stage it is still not yet stable, basically with so much supply being introduced each day to the open market

you and me both buddy

-well for me around 525usd  with elec would do it ...but you get my drift....-

Agreed, i just hate miners, that greedy guys make bigger and bigger facilities to create bitcoins lightspeed fast, basically they just counterfeit like the central banks.

On the other hand miners are needed to operate the bitcoin system and to keep it alive.

So its really a mixed feeling...

If you do not mine, why do care about miners?
To answe OP, yes, you ll make it, you just need to be very, very patient.

this year definitely not. next year, maybe. as other people also said, hold your coins. that's your best option.

Well i have good news OP.

The recent NASDAQ positive news will push really positive stuff into the bitcoin so it can rise really fast by the end of this year.

If you afford to keep your investment until the end of year it can go back to 690$ i think!

Probably around that by the end of the year yeah, but I cant wait for new ATH. It has to be broken again to prove the fact Bitcoin's success is inevitable and will recover from any crash.

Haha, I like the enthusiasm. But I'm not 100% convinced that there will be another bubble, even though there have been 3-4 in the past. Things turn out "different" when people get greedy (like me). But there's still a chance it'll go somewhere and alas, no risk no reward.

I've bought a few more BTC since I made this post at around $230-$290... I think my cost avg is down to around $630 now

bitcoin might be worth 690$ and more i would think, but it might be not because of its price sudden explosion, but because worth of fiat currencies implodes :)

It would more likely be worth zero or $690,000 in that scenario.

It is a binary bet at the moment.

It is a binary bet with disproportionate payoffs.
Your loss is limited but upside can be phenomenal.  :)

patience is the key. and if you ever happen to break even then it will be very tempting to sell, but keep holding it. 2016 will be the year of the second halving in bitcoin history. just wait.

I think it is possible for the price of a Bitcoin to rise again. Maybe next year, 2016, or maybe some time later than that. My belief is that as Bitcoin gets more and more popular, and more businesses are accepting Bitcoin, then the demand will grow even higher, therefore increasing the price. That's what I think.

Wrong mentality man. Think about the endgame.

I think you're quite well OP (supposing bitcoin is a success and you are ok financially). In 5 years, you should hold/spend your bitcoins. Or you may want to cashout for some reason, IDK.

Really difficult to tell, maybe in 2-3 years. The point is bitcoin is still very small and unknown for the average Joe. Let bitcoin grow and the mass adaption will come and the demand will rise.

Its not that i dont care about the mindless sheeple average joe, they probably buy greek bonds anyway lol. It's about the wallstreet getting involved.

The bitcoin yearly inflation is 10% which is too big for the big money to risk itself, it needs 4-5 more years until the yearly inflation gets below 3-4%.

These fucking miners are too greedy and inflate bitcoin too fast, this is bad for it's economic growth.

Write a strongly worded letter to Satoshi. The miners have precisely zilch to do with the amount of inflation.

How exactly, the more they mine the faster the bitcoin will get in circulation. If 1 people mines he will mine slower than if the whole planet is mining.

There might be modest variations in timing but that 1 person would be producing 25 coins every ten minutes all alone. It's hard coded into the algorithm.

Hmm I see then. So there is no conflict of interest then right?

Well i dont blame satoshi, i personally would have liked a coin supply of atleast 1 billion, i think 21m is too few, but then if the inflation would have been slow it would took too much time to become deflationary and people would have lost interest in 400 years or whatever it would take.

If it would be a faster distribution then the first year inflation would be immense and people would discredit it.

So satoshi was a genius for picking bitcoin 21m coins, a perfect balance between credibility & stability.

But this will make bitcoin an investmen currency and not a commercial one, because if the price gets above 1 bil $ / bitcoin then 1 satoshi would be too expensive to conduct basic transactions.

One bitcoin should've started off denominated as more units.

I know it's hugely divisible but human psychology is tuned to certain factors and streams of zeroes is not one of them. A bitcoin has been a bitcoin for a long time. Transitioning will be a bit messy.

The amount of times you hear people saying 'I can't afford a whole one' is rather disheartening. It's a misconception that should've been dealt with a lot earlier.

The opposite of what you're saying exists with many fiat currencies which are hyper inflated. I'd rather deal with bitcoin, then with some currency that I need about 10,000 just to buy a coffee. Walking around with a bunch of paper notes and coins, is 100x worse than bitcoin being limited to 21 million.

At the end of the day, ease of use remains exactly the same whether or not something costs you 1 bitcoin, or 1 satoshi, it's all digital transactions.

Ok but that will cause exactly the same thing as you mentioned.

If 1 bitcoin will be 100 trillion $ in the distant future, then 1 satoshi will be like 10.000$ or something like that. Then if you are for example a pizza company, are you going to charge 10.000$ (current dollar) for 1 pizza , that would be 1 satoshi. It seems insane.

So either bitcoin will be better divided, add like 5-6 more decimals to it, or the 21 million is not enough to encompass the ever growing wealth of the planet.

Money printing is not always bad, but overprinting it is. The money supply must be equal to the GDP

There are many places in the world that only accept physical money because they aren't connected to an electronic payment processor (for whatever reason, usually because it's too expensive). So if you want to buy a product or service from them you need to carry all those hyper inflated notes and coins. What i'm saying is that atleast with bitcoin, the hassle of having to carry mass wads of hyper inflated cash is negated.

Also I believe in bitcoins case, there are many solutions available which would make the currency easier to use if the value of the digits become a problem.

If Bitcoin replaced all the currency in the world, it would be worth less than $1 million per BTC. If the economy (and the value of a bitcoin) grows at 3% per year, then it will take more than 600 years for 1 BTC to go from $1 million to $100 trillion.

Anyway, I don't think that anyone disagrees that more decimal places may be needed at some point, but from what I've heard adding decimal places is easy.

Finally, there is no good reason for the money supply to be equal to GDP. It might be good to maintain the money supply at some fraction of GDP, but there is no way to determine what that fraction should be.

According to my calcultions about 750.000$ (current purchasing power of the $), which may grow to 1m$ but i highly doubt it as we face a severe recession / depression if these central banks print money like crazy.

If GDP will be lost, which will be as if the riots will break out then alot of property could be damaged, so let's just go with 750.000$ cap at best.

Now obviously not all money will go to bitcoin, you cant force 100% of the population to use it, my estimate is that at it's best it could be perhaps 40% of the world population, and thats still in optimal results, not to say about other cryptos that could replace bitcoin.

So if this is true then we will definitely need 5 more digits so that we could do commerce on the small scale too.

But my idea is to keep the names of the units "mBTC" "satoshi" "cBTC" and such, and just name the other 5 digits like 1 "Gavin" or 1 "Maxwell" or whatever from the main developers. So that it should not be confusing to new members, if we would rename 1 satoshi to the 0.000000000001 decimal it would be pretty confusing.

Well there are many arguments for keeping the supply = gdp, which  i wont discuss here, but it just more efficient that way. Of course in bitcoin we can't do that so we can only play with the decimals.

Sorry, I was thinking that you meant supply = nominal GDP (which obviously won't work) instead of supply = real GDP.

Sit on a comfortable chair for the wait will be long.. this year is a low price year, time to hustle and get loaded. Higher prices will come in the future.

My advice is to you, not to put too much of your hard earned money in Bitcoin, if you will be in urgent need of your return after some time. Bcoz one should take only as much risk as he/she can digest.

Nobody can grantee that, but I'm sure of that... Bitcoin will break $1000 barrier, it's just a matter of time (1-3 years). In this timeline we'll see a lot of price variations.

I personally believe you will recover your money and even profit eventually, but all you can do is wait. If bitcoin actually achieves even half of it's potential then I think anyone who owns bitcoin now will be quite wealthy in the future. Just think of the endless possibilities for it and all the industries it can effect and the money people can save by using it. That gives me faith in it personally but I know we must have patience as it's not going to happen over night.

Are you averaging down?

If you have the patience, then you'll recover your money. Who knows? You might even receive a hefty profit from your Bitcoin holdings. But no one can be sure about the time-period. It can happen in one year... and it can take up to 10 years. My advice will be to forget about your stash for at least 3 years. Come back after a three-year period, and then you can decide whether to sell them or hold them for even longer duration.

in 100 years :)

That possibility becomes stronger every day as the Bitcoin ecosystem grows and adoption increases.
Given the reckless printing of fiat currencies the world over, we won't have to wait long for a real-world test for your $690.
You just have to be patient.

why so pessimist? 690 is around the corner, if you can break 300, the price will probably skyrocket to that level like nothing, it just a matter of triggering the spark

No longer patient, but not unpatient. (ref Yellen).

It will break $1000 in less then a year. It will not stay there. But for sure will get there at some point.

What do you suggest? The value of a Bitcoin is determined by the goods and services it can purchase. The goods and services it can purchase are determined by the exchange rate.

OP: No one here really knows, they might think they do but they don't. I personally believe you will more than recoup your investment if your are patient and hold on to your position, but that said, the realm of possible prices is between $0 and $10,000 just speaking for a few months from now. Either price is possible although I would say that short term, neither is likely.

That's not a fact though, it's an opinion. Will it for sure break $1,000 in less than a year? No. If Bitcoin became obsolete a month from now due to a much better alternative, it might never reach $1,000, or it could just take longer than expected. Not to mention that if it does break $1,000 it may well stay there.

If $1,000 was guaranteed a year from now, Bitcoin would be at least $900 or so since its present value would be $1,000 - (time value of money for 1 year).

not sure if you will...but man I'd kill at that price....I think I need (counting my scrypt miners) $350 usd or so and I'd be golden
so hope it runs thru me first for such and I sure as hell hope you make your $690 break even price!

(honest it is all the goodness of my heart here.....NO...I mean you THINK it is because I'd benefit? 'shame on you") :)

anyway I wish us BOTH luck on your price..it would be nice to be surprised and wrong with the price going UP for
a change vs the past history of me being very wrong on the price drop this last year in the previous direction

Well as mentioned it does depend significantly on the China because of the volumes involved. Bitcoin was $1200 once, and the best predictions indicate a value around $1000 in the next 3 years or so.
In any case, you could wait it out for a few years, probably the best bet.

The volume in China does not matter as the trading fee is 0% for big exchanges there.

What does the trading fee has to do when it comes to controlling 25% btc in circulation. They do have a huge effect.

Bitcoin will not get any close to obsolete in next 3 years from any better alternative.  Only option is that there come to some terrible flaw in protocol. That is only way Bitcoin gets obsolete in one year time.

 Try to find some legal investments what will pay you regular dividends
I think you can find them on Alcurex exchange,thayare listening some company shares and i think thay take care of avoiding scams
other options goodstaking altcoins but it is always kind of gambling
generally put part of your btc at work
dont believe in miracles what are telling that you can make 30% per month,berealistic anddo your own due inteligence
good quote is


If something is to much hide it cant be truth
if there is no pronlem to find information about company what you want to invest,than consider to invest

There are experts looking for bugs daily, tons of them. If any major flaw was there it would have occurred before. The protocol is rock solid, at this point is just not something worth worrying, so is a potential coin deprecating BTC anytime soon.

They have more than 25% control of the bitcoin in circulation as fas as I knew, but yeh the volume coming from there is not only because of the apparent 0% fee. How do the exchanges make money? Withdrawals and deposits? Would be good to trade there for 0% as we did at stamp for awhile that had a slight increase in volume. OP if you haven't already you need to have been averaging down and that would be easy to get that back on the next small bubble to 300s.

Yes i believe so. Hard to say exactly when btcprice will start to rise against the fiat currencys again, it could be a month or it could be a year until we see 1000+usd/btc, i doubt that it will take much longer that that.

To answer your question, in my opinion, most likely not. Bitcoin has been hovering around the $220-$260 area for quite a while now, and it's going to take a huge amount of luck to even get into $300's+ again.

Coming back, will likely not happen in 2015 but in 2016, as I had predicted wrongly earlier. By end of 2015, its going to be under 1000.

yes sure you will make it.. :)
in late november it gussed to happen..till then hold your back..

Too many doubts and crucial moments happening as we speak. Don't expect a big uptrend on the price for at least 1 and a half year. Later on, it will reach ATH again for sure, and double it minimum.

Wow, bitcoin surpassing a mere $5billion market cap is going to take a huge amount of luck? It must be a total failure then

Yeah lol. Anyone that isn't thinking 100+ billion marketcap is just not taking Bitcoin as serious as they should. An app like Uber has 40 billion market cap ffs. If Bitcoin becomes mainstream, that would be a good estimate for starters, and later on, it could reach the trillions.

which is the infamous 5k-10k target that all are waiting for, but i still hope, that bitcoin won't stop there, and get even bigger, i'll not be satisfied until it can be used like any other fiat money, with everyone and everywhere, maybe  also taking the place of one of those fiat

If it will not get overtaken by some next gen thing that gets really popular and will be build on top of the existing blockchain or so.. I am beginning to doubt BTC will reach such highs on its own..

It will make it, the only question is how long will it take.
Some people are calling for it to take years, while others are calling for it much sooner.
If you have some patience I'm sure you can wait it out and it wont take that long.
Good luck to you.

Thank you.

We have already waited so long, I hope it doesn't take another year or two

That sudden increase to 1k wasn't natural, I doubt we'll seen it in a few years. I'm calling no more than $400 by the end of this year.
I still have a unfortunate feeling that we'll stay around $225-$255 for a lengthy period of time.

Same thinking.

@OP
I Personally kept buying and selling daily locally without touching live trading platforms, I got loss by selling coins in cheap sometimes when prices went down, but the profit I got was solid.

If you don't wanna wait for prices to go up, count your losses right now and buy and sell coins till you break even.

Let's say you bought 10 coins at 690
690*10= 6900
230*10= 2300 (current price)
Loss=4600
Now If you have bought and sold 10 coins daily at 2$ profit per coin margin it would have taken 230 days to recover your loss and that means approx 7 months maximum. Anything above 2$ would have been your profit.

If anyone thought that 1k mark was natural, then they are lost with awareness.

But, by now I`m pretty sure the op, has come to a closure on the price point way before when it started decline to the price as of today.

I reckon it was a mixture of bot action and out of control hype. It will happen again, and I don't think 225-255 is bad. It means we can buy Bitcoin cheaper for a longer time and get ready for the next level in pumps. Next time it will be huge.

I actually disagree that it was unnatural, my experience in the auction industry is something is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it on that day.

In late 2013, Bitcoin WAS worth $1000. You can argue willy bot pushed it up there, but everyone was eager to buy it at that price and ALSO eager to sell it at that price. It's not like the rest of the crypto markets had to follow the madness on Gox, the free market decided that was what the price was. I can stand on the auction block and offer to sell you a can of coke for $1,000 but if no one is willing to buy it, it's not worth $1,000.

What I fear more is if Bitcoin doesn't catch up the value soon it will fade out of existence. People will argue Bitcoin is still in its infancy but 7 years is a LONG time in the technological world when you consider companies like Apple and Microsoft became billion dollar corporations and were changing the world before everyones eyes in just the first few years of their existence and the evolution from the first dial-up internet BBS to the WWW as we know it was a rather rapid transition as well. Don't forget the fast rise of Google, Facebook, & Twitter as well. It needs to do something to convince the average person "This is what I need to have in my life" soon or else people will move on to something else.

Me too, I don't feel like we'll go over $400 this year and will probably stay in the 200's for a while. But the $1200 peak was not because of Willy, lets get that shit out of the way, it was a drop in the bucket. Maybe the ATH was not natural, but the market cap at that point was only about $12B... should bitcoin have a much higher market cap?

Nah, I'm not a good trader... how the fuck am I gonna guarantee constant $2 profits?


I'm gonna hold, even if it takes 3-5 years for me to get in the green. If bitcoin is still in the 200s after 5 years.... then fuck everyone and everything




You know Apple was around since the 70s right? They did not get popular until the 90s when they came out with the iPod and iTunes.... and this is besides the point. All these tech companies you are mentioning are COMPANIES. Bitcoin is MONEY.... it's a lot more complicated than some social media myspace ripoff like Facebook. These companies have marketing and advertisement, anyone can use facebook/google/twitter for free; bitcoin requires money, it's risky, it's complicated, there's a barrier for entry, it's not a product with immediate benefits in the western world..... there are so many other reasons why your logic is flawed. I hate it when people make this comparison, sorry mate I don't buy it

it was not only for Willy i could agree, but he play a big role in it, it was the one that caused the panic buy, when there were hordes of novices led by doge, that was throwing money at everything called crypto in late 2013

on thing is certain, bitcoin is massively undervalued in this stage, it need absolutely a better marketcap yes, we are missing some zeroes...

I'm not sure man, not gonna lie just to make you baghold. I think new money will enter when the price will be lower and we could get a chance of another pretty big bull run but I don't think will see 400$ again.

Not exactly where you are going with the above...but if the case is btc will never hit $400 bucks again then it is a 'failure' and will die..if that is what you are saying
that is my view from  a long term perspecive it has to 'eventually' get above $400 usd someday imho.

If you take the view that 'open source' bitcoin will survive in the future ..then price will have to reflect that fact as difficulty goes up from mining along with even the corresponding if modest only adoption as it plugs along...etc...if NOT then
the whole thing is just a speculative 'bubble' that will pop when/if that end point is ever reached and your point is correct about it never making $400 usd again


imho it will make $400 on my bet that it  will survive in some manner ..now that could be 2 months or 12 years ...but if it does survive then it is a lot like land

swamp land may be 2 bucks an acre

ny time square way be 50 mil an acre


but no one says in any way/shape of form that says that  'land' is gonna go away ...'poof' like they say about crypto and specifically bitcoin it all comes down to adoption and price
if indeed btc or say ltc crypto is gonna hang around long term or not.

so my bet is really really long term ...10 years plus .....it will hit $400 again (again my point of view) ..if my main point is correct and it survives...if it don't survive
well..then all the price stuff is moot anyway and if my view is correct in this meandering look at the future if it does make it past  10 years and beyond..BTC will be
worth more then 400 usd at some point in time.

hey even at one time the land where they built Disneyland was swampland ......we could get lucky..thus the bet on crypto by me and others on its LONG TERM
OPEN SOURCE SURVIVAL in some manner....as to price/adoption/regulations and the rest ...well no control over that.....I can scoop up what limited amount of BTC
there is in the world at this time via buying it or mining it however....according to what i wish to risk $$$ wise further (or not) ..if I am taking this bet of long term btc survival

and again what the heck it is only $$ someday when they stick you in the assisted living after taking all your stuff away ..you will only have the chances you took
and your toothbrush/crummy bathrobe and slippers so what the heck take a chance :)

and remember " whatever happens in bitcoin stays in bitcoin".... if it does go belly up that modified Vegas slogan will be used by us all ..denial denial denial on how
much btc we had/have or that we drank the kool aid back in the day... (always good
to have a back up plan) :)

Btc is just a speculative instrument without a real use case scenario right now.
If it will find its place in the economy then yeah, it could probably go higher than that. You want to throw 1% of your portfolio and hope for the best? Do it. Are you bagholding from when the price was more than two times of what it is now? Then something is not going well with your equity management and there are no reason right now to take even more risk and loss.
You are talking 10 years in the future, but do a reality check and think about how many things will happen and how technology will change in ten years. The only thing that can and will grow exponentially in this world is technological advancement. It means that everything you hold today is most likely not to increase in value because things tend to become obsolete faster and faster.

Just hold it for a few years and forget about it.  We've seen this story before.  In a few years you could be a millionaire and look back and laugh at considering selling.  Work on some other stuff or just help promote bitcoin meantime.

Thanks, and yes that's what I'm doing :)

But you are comparing Bitcoin to the regular technological advancement that happens every X year, you are underrating it greatly. Your post sounds like, "why buy an Iphone 1 when there will be Iphone 6's in a couple of years". When we are talking about one of the most important technological advancements in the last 100 years. The network effect is already strong enough to become the most powerful computing power network in the world, imagine in a couple of years. Any advancements that happens will always be smaller than what Bitcoin solved because of simple statistics, therefore Bitcoin can implement any of these changes withing itself.

i see bitcoin topping off around 600 this year then next year will be amazing. Just wait

I think we'll probably be in the $200-$300 plateau for a while longer but i predict it'll reach $1k within 2 years.

I'd say yes, if you're talking about 5-10 years of time.
There's prediction that it'll cross 300 again by the end of this year, but be warned that this is just speculation.
It can't be predicted for sure, but I personally believe that Bitcoin will rise and will play huge role in our future

Well predictions for these year tells that bitcoin prices will reach upto $600 this year. In a best case scenario it might go over $700. Although it does not seem so if we see the current trend, which is stuck between $220 to $250. Still let us all hope for the best .  ;)

How about you buy a couple more at this price? That way the break even point will drop. Assuming you did not spend too much to get coins at 690 avarage.

5-10 years for reaching a mere 690? this must be a joke, if by that time bitcoin is still at 690, then something went utterly wrong, and bitcoin is done, none can save it anymore

in 10 years the network will go against 3 halving(counting the one of the next year also), the supply will diminish to 450( pay attention this is the the mining supply), the absorbtion will be only 310500, compared to nearly 900k of what it is now(230 x 3800)

basically you're saying that bitcoin will face a slow decline from now and that his death will happen in 5-10 years

assuming that bitcoin won't die, a realistic estimate based on the absorbtion of the mining supply, should tell you that the price will be at least equal to what it is now

so we are talking about a price x3 of what the OP is aiming at, around 2k at the very least

It is entirely possible for Bitcoin to become widely adopted while the price to remains where it is now or even falls.

Yeah, that's true but it cant stay that way for ever. In the beginning of mass adoption we may see that but once its taken hold there will be no stopping this rocket to the moon we call Bitcoin.

Do you think? I look at it in the sense that if it becomes widely adopted then it's demand would obviously sky rocket and naturally the exchange price would rise. I would be quite surprised if it's popularity increased and its current value remained the same.

i don't think so, for example if big business companies enter in play they need to move an enormous amount of money, in the range of billion, and with the current tiny market cap, they will end in controlling the total supply, thus making everyone else(especially small business) deprived of the opportunity to use bitcoin

this is the primarily reason, why the price matter, and why can't stay at this level, when the fully adoption will kick in

That's nothing more than wishful thinking and wild speculation.


Amph, you make a good argument though. Moving billions of dollars worth of bitcoins would require a more valuable bitcoin to support it, but keep in mind that entities moving those amounts of value in dollars don't actually move dollars. They use things like treasury bills and plain old IOUs. Large movements of value denominated in bitcoins would probably be similar.

Other reasons why increased adoption does not necessarily mean increased price:

• Fractional-reserve banking. If you believe that Bitcoin is immune to fractional-reserve banking, you are being naive.
• Bitcoins, and other crypto-currencies and crypto-assets are much more efficient to transfer. For the same amount of economic activity, many fewer bitcoins are needed. The demand as a result of increased adoption would not be as high as you think. Especially with the huge overhang of hoarding that we have now.

one scenario where i could see bitcoin remaining in this current price situation, or slightly higher, while reaching fully adoption(or fully possible adoption, there is a big difference here), would be a scenario full of other useful coins, that will be adopted on large scale(but still under bitcoin in terms of network power and price) and therefore will dilute the overall price of bitcoin

could you elaborate on fractional reserve banking for me please?

you expect too much from bitcoin, bitcoin at $1000 will be an amazing achievement. a market cap of around $20 billion is more than enough.

It is money now, highly liquid with good money properties.

Imagine you live in Argentina, and want to go to the US on vacation. You have to convert your pesos to USD, spend, and convert the remaining USD back to pesos when you come home. That is the same as I do now using bitcoins in stead of pesos.

You know what? You are probably right. I first got excited by bitcoin around a year ago. I bought a few and held until I sold for roughly 50%-60% loss a couple of months ago. The thing that remains though is that the technology is still very exciting and it's potential is huge. It's all down to other people though to make it happen. I can only join in with dreaming the dream. But that's actually pretty important as the more people that believe bitcoin has value is what will actually make it more valuable.

Losing $15,000 because of BTC simply implies how risky that is...
It's terrible, and I'm sorry for this loss you're having, but if I were you I would take the loss and avoid further losses, I don't think the price of BTC will go up, it has more chances to keep on dropping especially in light of raise of interest rates (you don't get interest % on your BTC).

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=fractional+reserve+banking&l=1

I know what fractional reserve banking is. I mean how do you think it relates to bitcoin?

I think fractional reserve banking - which in simple words mean banks lend you lots of $$$$ but have only $ in their reserves - is related to BTC because the banking system relies on money that doesn't exist whilst the BTC doesn't allow you to go overdraft.

That's why as the person above me said it's much more difficult to transfer same amount of cash in BTC whilst with a bank you can simply use your "credit".

20years will make you a millionaire.

A millionaire by 47? I don't mind..... would like to be one in my 30s though

A simple example would be Coinbase loaning out the bitcoins they hold.

I am determined to understand this. So....

Lets say coinbase hold 10,000 bitcoins. Going with fractional reserve they lend out 1,000,000 bitcoin. How are they going to send them? An amendment to the protocol?

they will probably create fake bitcoin, by imputing fake numbers(in your account) like they are doing all the time with fiat, then they will probably cover their ass if another one deposit on their wallet, they will surely not lend 1M if they had 10K, but at best 20K

They hold 10,000 BTC and the loan 9,000 BTC. Everbody with coins at coinbase still believe they have 10,000, and some other people have 9,000. There are now effectively 19,000 BTC. If those 9,000 BTC are deposited and 90% are loaned, then there now effectively 27,100 BTC, ... Eventually if the reserve ratio is 10%, there will be effectively 100,000 BTC, even though there are actually only 10,000, and 90,000 BTC worth of promises.

I dont know.. 47 is a bit a stretch.

I would def be wanting to be in my 30s then 47. I mean 47 is still fine, but like damn.. I wouldnt know what to do with it at that age.. since all my youth 20-30s are gone.

I get it now. Fractional reserve within their own database. Not on the blockchain. Well... when we transact with others and use their systems we expose ourselves. Yes, I agree this could totally happen. This is a human problem though, not a bitcoin one.

Funny, I am in the same boat. I bought a large amount of bitcoin at $650-$700 and I've been suffering ever since ..

We ride together or we die together.... bitcoin broz 4 lyfe!

There's been a minor pump? From 235-248 over night. I propose that we'll hit around $270 now.

Recently, I've been thinking about the value of bitcoin again.  But my timeline is for a long term though so timeline is an important consideration.  Also, I don't assign a specific amount that I want BTC to be valued at but I look at it more in terms of what my revenue streams are or might be eventually.  So, I work other angles to accumulate bitcoin and that means the value of bitcoin for me to break even in fiat terms can be varied.

But just think of what that means in relative doubling or trippling terms of the value of BTC.  If BTC were to go to just $500 (half of what it was at it's peak) then my current accumulation operations double in their value.  It's not just the immediate value of bitcoin on-hand but also the longer term value of my efforts to accumulate bitcoin.

I don't know about that.  I don't think we'll see such a gradual incline.  I think it will be an explosive jump in price followed by another gradual decline.  That just seems to be the basic trend.  I think what we're seeing right now are modest panic buying of a few new entrants to the bitcoin market.  There is a storm brewing and it will get political and corporate attention and I think it could be led by the same people behind movements like occupy Wall Street.

I agree that there will be an explosive jump at some point. I don't know why there is all this talk of a storm brewing but I sense it too. It must be a lot of wishful thinking causing a lot of hot air.

20 years id be 47, and id say why the hell would I hold these coins for so long.

If anyone holds this long, much props to them. I could be dead before 47 due to natural causes etc.

you don't need to wait that much, i believe that the next year will reserve plenty of good surprise, in the worst case in 2020, bitcoin will be already big enough, surely we don't need 20 years to achieve mainstream, even satoshi said so, and he was talking about it 6 years ago....

Well the current average sits at $257. I still predict it to hit $270 and then fall back to around $240 -$250 as of the current trend.
Let's hope I'm proved wrong and it rolls over $270 with ease.

Bitcoin is still on a short term view right now. There will be a day where bitcoin will start to skyrocket and right after there will be some heavy adoption announcement. There are way too many projects in the making right now the market is not representative of the potential here.

You should buy some at this range and hold for a good 2-3 years this baby is still at its youngest stage.

Don't you think if the US would start raising interest rates then investors would prefer a currency that yields % by itself instead of picking BTC that yields no interest whatsoever?  ???

Even without increasing the interest rates, people would still be much more interested in putting their money to yield interest for them rather than putting it in form of BTC that yield no interest. However if there is much demands for it and the price of BTC is high enough than this interest rates wouldnt be a problem at all

Hold it for few years and you will break even, put btc in cold storage and check back after 5 years, most likely you would have break even and made profit, seeing the increased adaptability of bitcoin throughout the world.

You could die today also. Most people save until there older and bitcoin could give you a nice early retirement package and give you the freedom to do all the things you ever wanted. On the flip side of that nothing is guaranteed but it is exciting to see where bitcoin will go in the future.

Most likely indicate that you are pretty much unsure about this. Basically holding it for a few years and "hope" that the price will increase in a few years timeframe will be the last resort that someone has to do in order to break even. There are several things that could be done with it instead of holding it and hoping that the value back to where you purchased it

can you please tell us couple of them? day trading is risky, investing to dice-site is risky, cloud mining is unprofitable or ponzi, gambling is mega risky..I really don't get, what you actually mean. Maybe I'm just conservative or something, but waiting to recover seems to me no-risk most feasible way how to deal with loss..

I have already said somewhere (and probably exactly in this thread) that one of the simplest strategy to deal with a loss is to sell some small part of your Bitcoin holdings (say 5-10%) now when the price has risen a little from its support levels, and then wait and see. If the price continues to grow, wait for an increase of, say, 10-15%, then sell again. Since it is highly unlikely right now that the price will rise more than 20% without a significant rebound, you will be able to buy back when the price reverts for the same 10-15%...

And you can do the same with smaller parts of your hoard, thereby taking chance to profit from smaller rebounds (potentially down to exchange fees)

lending is not that risk if you offer a service here on the forum, like quickseller, you can earn a decent amount, there are many that need big loan every day with a very good interest of 10-20% depend on the time for the return

i find it as a good way to increase your bitcoin stash

Dont use the word "risk" too much because everything are risky to begin with. Risk is a part of our life and to hold yourself because you think things are risky isnt a good way to do things. Everything is indeed risky, best thing would be to choose the one that bear less risk for you

Waiting to recover should be the last resort that someone has to use. Whats the point of waiting if you could minimize your loss by now?

This would be one of the things you can do to recover some of your loss (below) .Basically it is about to cut your lost and buyback lower and get a chance for profit during some mini pump or rebound ( this isnt a day trading )


P.S : well explained deisik , save me some time to type the same thing  :)


Only if you secure a collateral, otherwise it will be the same as Lending in some BTC lending platform . No matter how reputable your lender is bitcointalk, without a collateral it will bear the same risk as lending to a stranger ( unless you know his identity of course )

P.S : Even a reputable member like Maidak is pulling a "scam" ( not sure a scam, could be an interest free loan without permission, call it whatever you want )

You need to cover your investment by trading your coins. Hedging is important when putting larger sums of money into longer term investments.

still very easy to offer a collateral here, you can just give your account, and then you have practically, zero risk involved

btw i still think that maidak account was hacked

anyway the OP discussion is pointless, if he not respond anymore, if he is still holding good for him, otherwise there is no much to add

You are still playing a guessing game and hoping you are selling at the top of a run and hoping you can get back in lower. From my experience I can almost never time this right.


Since I'm not a trader, this sounds like a fast way to lose even more coins

It isnt a guessing game to be honest. People should stop generalizing that trading is the same type of a guessing game or gambling because it isnt. Actually you dont need to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, honestly no one could time it perfectly as well .
What you need is only to sell higher from your position i.e of the few days ago rally where the price gone up for about 10 % or so. If you would take a part on that you would gain some from it because the price has been showing a sign of rally for few days and it reaches its peak at around $250 which is plenty spot for you to gain some profit from the previous $228 before the rally


It seems he responded already

Look, you are already at a loss, big time, as the title assumes. So, if you sell a minor part of your stock and the price goes up, isn't that what you were looking for, to begin with? Since you sell only a small part, you would still be better off than if the price didn't change at all. Thereby, you are taking advantage of volatility, independent of the actual price change direction...

its a trend with any investment bitcoin or gold you have to wait a while before you get something out of it i would wait 20 years but in that time frame you will get so much its crazy

How?  Bonk your head really hard with something, and forget about bitcoin.  Write a message to yourself that will only be sent 20 years later (IDK, use technology) that you are still in possession of bitcoin.  Done. :)
I think in 20 years bitcoin will either be striving or dead.  Very little chance of an in-between.

The 'problem' is that interest rates determine that demand you're referring to.
The Aussie Dollar and the NZ Dollar used to worth so much and now their currencies plunged against the USD because of expectations of rapid economic changes in the US, so it's hard to think that the faith of BTC would be different.

Yes you will make it the question is will it be this year or in the next few years, I was in a similar place where it cost me around $250 and crashed to $70, like a crazy man I just kept buying and averaging down and got to a point where I got away with nice profit and more coin than I started with. If I was you I would not just sit around and wait to make it, I would do something about it. Good luck.

$690 it was easy for china, as we know that china has control of the price of bitcoin,by the way iam gonna sell my bitcoin to if come to $280 - $300 iam waiting for it

Why? C`mon bitcoin is not a pump and dump. It's a currency of the future, which offers alot of possibilities.

If it was the currency of the future it wouldn't have slumpped massively from $800 to $200.

when I got into mining oct 18th BTC was $150 usd ..then imho the china bubble ( a lot of Chinese trying to get 40 years of wealth out of china they could not do previous
in the form of BTC asap) and the authoritarian crackdown in 2014 from China and other countries on crypto and BTC and the bubble pop'd with the above and also
speculation was involved ...add mt. gox and other scandals and it is kind surprising it limped into 2015 to tell you the truth... :)

now it is 250 for btc more or less

if next year it goes say 350 etc that works for me too ...but BTC also will work as protocol for moving wealth world wide from 'not so enlightened' countries due to greed
war corruption etc to safe havens without banks/gov't involvement....that will come first...then as a method beyond this protocol the coin price will be based on how useful this network is for doing such..that perceived use will determine coin price for the next 5 years imho with hopefully adoption ticking up ..but adoption will tick up on the hopefully working
protocol and hopefully good press on the above working as I state (knock wood)

folk adopting something that they see in press and elsewhere as having a legit and unique use and the fact it is open source etc would go a long way to easing any fears
on price..the old saw "now I get it" then to 'lets also buy some btc' ah ha moment (i hope)

anyway badly explained but how i see it ..kinda sorta in a rough kinda way..

No doubt that's one of the biggest advantages of BTC but the problem is that many people would avoid using it if they know they can lose the value of what they're transferring by 10% or more in a matter of minutes or even seconds. Personally I wouldn't keep my life savings in BTC, it's just too risky (not only financially but also in terms of regulation, account can get hacked etc.)

This is not a big issue if you are a business owner that accepts BTC because you can always use some sort payment processor to convert the price into BTC equivalent with the current rate. However if you are merely pointing this in the point of view of a customer than it is a risk that someone should take if they are using BTC as payment method.

On the other hand, if you are dealing with larger amount of transactions then there is an advantages of using BTC which is that you will pay less fee for the transaction which is a good deal and of course no question asked even if you are dealing hundreds thousand of dollars overnight unlike FIAT transaction in a bank


With the current volatility, it is pretty bad decision of course to relly on BTC as a life savings but if you are a fan of security then it is pretty much safer to relly on BTC rather than traditional banking system if you know how to secure them properly .
Not only that BTC is vulnureable to a hacking but a banking system could be hacked as well, it is a delusion to think that your life saving is save at a bank account because both is hackable but BTC is much better in term of security

Ah forget about bitcoin, buy altcoins.

With bitcoin you need to wait like 2-3 years to reach 690$, with altcoins you only need to wait 2-3 days.

Some altcoins give 600% returns in like 30 minutes.

You'd better choose yourself a coin with some proper market depth or your 600% gain will instantly turn into a 60% loss when you cash out a heady 0.1 BTC.

Alts can hit the spot but they're pure guesswork at the mercy of some totally merciless traders. I'd never bother with anything other than pin money again.

i know this is an old post, but.... how else would we value them? i mean, i value them also based on future potential value, but that is in relation to the exchange rate. because the important thing IMO is, of course, purchasing power.

Your statement is quite contradicting each another ( the first and the second ). Basically if you are base-ing it on future potential value then you do not need to worry about the current exchange rate. With that being said, this is what most bag holder sees, they left out the current exchange rate and keep on holding because they do believe that BTC has a potential to go until 4 figures at least ( in term of price not value ). You are not doing it right because you are focusing yourself on the current exchange rate if you really value them by their future potential value

Also that you should note that there is a different between "value" and "price" . BTC with no doubt got some potential value in the future but that doesnt mean that this value will go along with its price


Standard things of economy, supply and demands. Which means that according to this theoretically , the price will increase in the future because the supply is fixed on 21M supply but only if there is a demands on it which means that mass adoptions is indeed needed for this. This is according to theory which alot of bagholder hold their principle on which is also the reason why they keep on holding and waiting despite that they could get some profit from a small rally or rebound

There are two values: the market price, which is the amount you'll get right now, and the present value, which is an expected future market price with a discount rate applied.

I suppose that when people say that price and value are different, they assume that "price" means the market price, and "value" means present value.

Note that (assuming an efficient market) there is only one market price, but there is an infinite number of present values because each person can expect different future market prices and different discount rates.

Are you serious? In 5 years the price will jump over 100 times higher then now.
But i knew it that you will sell your bitcoins at around 2000 Dollar and then repent it when it will be over 50.000 Dollar,
when you ask such questions like will be bitcoin break 690 Dollar.

Have to ask are you serious? You honestly think bitcoin will 100 times higher than it is now  :D So from $24,200, 100 times now to a sentence later you think it will go to $50,000 righto.

OP Pretty sure you would have reduced your average down by now from $690? Even if you have not I hold faith in the end you will be able to make a profit or at least get most of your investment back.

There are people in worse situations buying in $700+  all will be ok.

Right on the nail except for the discount rate so corrected them abit. Most people are focusing on the current market price while some other are focusing on the value of it which is why some people hold stash of BTC without even care about the current rate because they believe that someday their stash will have a value.
While on the other hand , there are peoples that are focusing on the daily rate and profitted themselves from each small rally and stuff. The "current price" has become a some standards for most people that are accustom to this

Also that the words value has a alot of meanings not only in term of the prices . Security is a valuable things to consider as well and with BTC you can provide yourself with a top notch security without having to relly on a traditional bank anymore. This is considered as value as well (well atleast for me)

The swiss frank also had a merciless swing this january, is that a crappy currency with no market depth. It seems so.

This is the problem with speculation, no market is safer than others, so the only parameter left is % return, and i`d rather chose 600% gain in 1 day then 0.001% gain in 1 month :D

Indeed there is none, unless you know what you are doing exactly and not speculating on it


As always, it seems that you posting something without some facts again. Seriously stop getting into delusion that there is only 0.001 % in a month. How about checking on some facts before posting? Feel free to check this https://bitcoinwisdom.com/. It is 3.55 % in a month which is quite a decent amount considering that if someone is not really active in trading. The 3.55 % could actually be higher if you sell it on the right count because price has declined since the last rally .

Much better is that if you know how to take position and profitted yourself from each small rally or some rebounds. Basically this is what holder left out because it is too much trouble for them . Instead of limiting themselves with a stop loss. Most people keep on holding and when the price crashed all they still do is holding it and hope that the price could get better

---

On another count, the 600 % gain in altcoin that you stated is merely a delusion as well because it is not everyday that you could get it. Also that it is off topic to discuss about altcoin in this thread

I was actually talking about forex markets not bitcoin. Yea on forex look for 20% earnings / year, so thats about 0.0000000001% / month (sarcastically).

However in Bitcoin, you can already see threads where you can invest and earn 200% returns in 1 hour. So its obvious which currency i would use :)

I guess that is what exactly he meant, perhaps he meant that to see the bitcoin as an another more aspect such as programmable currency or replacement for fiat currencies and not limited to only for purchasing or exchanging values, this is my view of his comments.

If you look at the price of litecoin rise recently its quite amazing how it was around 1.20 to 1.40 and then all of a sudden it can sustain a rise to $3 and stay there.  Crypto can move up and sustain prices fast is the lesson.  You ill see those prices again OP dont worry :)

On a side note of all the bitcoin threads I hope the OP's Bitcoin to be $690 named thread TITLE ... here is sooooooo on the mark! :)

Just saying ....every time I see the thread title my little heart goes 'pitter pat' :)

just had a friend that bought over 6K USD @ 3500ish...he's bummed...but at least said he doesn't lose a dime til he sells...think he'll be just fine

To be honest I consider little chance for bitcoin price goes to that amount but there is a little chance for being so while no one can ensure about it.

My friend earned 500% returns on altcoins, and me about 200%.

Why wait for bitcoin when you can trade altcoins. Just get your bitcoins turned into altcoins, and then trade them, then after you won, convert back to bitcoin.

It wont go lower than this, 200€ is the floor :)

because that just luck, trading altcoin is much more about luck, because there are many of them and each of those alt are fucking unstable and super volatile, unless you are a part of group of pumper and can manipulate quite well the price, you will end up losing, but it is also obvious that between many losers there must be some winner

I`m not part of any group but me and my friend already made more than 100$ from trading alone, and on yobit, so thats says something about talent.

You have to have it in your blood i think. Also market manipulation is plain obvious here, all data is public so you can see what you need, this isnt like some shady forex broker.

yes there is some skill behind it, but with altcoin the luck is more strong, because of their not secure nature compared to bitcoin, which is far stronger

but it could just be a streak luck or something, i was doing something akin in the past with doge, 4-5 successful, big shorting, with which i double two times my doge stash

btw what altcoin are you trading?

Congratulations on your luck, but wait a second. In order for your friend to earn a 500% return on altcoins, somebody had to lose 67% on altcoins.

Your friend is lucky that he is the winner and not the loser in that trade. But next time, who knows?

I have no doubt that BTC will reach $1000 within next two years. I just wonder when the price will always be higher than $1000.

an increase of 500% corresponds to a decrease of a 83.3% not 67%

other examples of what i'm saying

increase of 100%(x2) = decrease of 50%

increase of 50% = decrease of 33.3%

increase of 33.3% = decrease of 25%

then we have 300 is equal to a decrease of 75%, with 400% you have 80% and with 500% you have 83.3% and so on

but maybe you mean something else...

You are right. My error in basic arithmetic.

I see it too, but not for the same reason as some people predict, but more on greeces continue problem.

And never ending crippling money movements with people wanting to buy more bitcoin.

Fundamental misconception. In the trade, both parties win, that is the sacred truth of the free market. In the next trade, there are also two winners. The loss occurs between the two trades, when the coin that a trader holds, depreciates. The loss has nothing to do with the other two traders.

Personally I think bitcoin is only just getting started but it's going to be a turbulent time in the beginning which I still believe it is. If you believe in the technology and its possibilities keep holding, if not maybe you should get out when you next can, but I'd hold for at least a little while longer.

Depends on how much time you can afford to wait. Sometime it will break this price, no matter what.

Buying and selling at a loss is, most of the time, either due to the investor having panicked (seems not in this case) or the investor having used money he couldn't lose and pulled out before potentially losing it all

Litecoin got shilled up, because it has a strong social presence. Bitcoin has a worse social media presence, yes bitcoin is much bigger, but c`mon, we need to shill on  social media about bitcoin too, or we lose this opportunity.

1 billion people on facebook, c`mon put your fingers to the work :)

some people that bought at $1,000  they aren't too happy. However, if they can hold for a few more years I'm sure we will surpass 1k easily.

eventually , yes


be patient


should eventually surpass that



unless..................... 



a few members of the dev team turn it into the proposed altcoin xt


then i would be a little worried

Of course, just some more patience.

Bitcoin is moving sideways till 2016, then price will go up again!  :)

Shilling will be the last resort to do because BTC is bound to be succesfull as today even without a heavy shilling all over the social media. You may want to hype all you want but that wont bring enough demands to BTC to reach $690 anyway. What BTC actually needs is not a hype but a real demands on it



This is the part where I dislike this. Basically holding prevent people from recovering some loss (considering that they bought at peak) . Best thing to do will be to get a profit through every small rally or rebounds. It is not hard to actually "play" this thing and it is much simpler than daytrading but the fact is that people seem to more into "holding" despite that they are suffering a blow from buying at the peak. With this, people could atleast re-coup few of what they lost without having to wait for years with uncertainty

On the other hand, even if BTC is showing a sign of price increasing right now , people should always realized that there is still always a potential for it to be a dirt cheap in overnight. Not saying that I dont believe in BTC however that people should not leave this fact aside but this seems to not be the concern of several hodler

Maybe in a year's time.

Never invest more than you're willing to lose. I would say if you need the money, get it out.
If not, just hold on for a while it'll go back up.

you will not only do it, but you can earn a huge profit if you're willing to wait enough, since 690 is a drop in the bucket, you can aim for 6900 if you want, just need to be patient

bitcoin is like the spread of the oil, it will get big eventually

What do you mean it already gained 30€ in price due to greece. And it hasnt even started yet.

Just wait to see next month, i think bitcoin by august will reach 300 possibly 350 €

Well it's kind of tough to answer this. To break even , you might be measuring it via the current exchange rate , how else are you suppose to measure its purchasing power? But then if you can , there are other scales which cater to  the measurement, please go through them. Maybe if you  give it a good time, say 5 years to 6 or maybe 3 , you might achieve the target.

I bought my first bitcoin at about $350 , right now I wait for the value to go up to cover my losses.
no problem just Hold !

you are in a much better condition, 350 isn't so far away, we can grasp it, even in this month with the recent premises

690 need a good boost to be taken instead, with the current climbing, OP can hope to achieve it, by this year

I expect significant corrections in the coming days with the Chinese stock markets right on course of collapsing. Gold seems to be affected too (sehr gut)...

there is no reason on Earth to ever sell your bitcoins for less that what you paid for them.  As has been said, price dips shake out the weak hands

That's a ridiculous statement. There are plenty of reasons. Perhaps you need the money, or you want to use the bitcoins, or perhaps you believe the price is going to drop further.

We're still very much in the "wild west" period, which is fun but also why you never put down more than you're willing to lose and be able to sleep at night.

There is also absolutely no reason to keep your BTC while you can sell them for loss and recoup more at the lower price. I was merely a trader and keepsake holding is not a thing to me

i.e You buy 1 BTC for $500 . The price dropped to $400 and you decided to sell them for $100 loss . If the price keep on dropping to $300 and you buy them back at those prices, you actually get 1.33BTC now instead of 1BTC . You may lost in term of FIAT however judging from your words, I assumed that you are a hodler so it means it benefits you more by selling and recouping at the lower price to get more BTC


For most people, this reason isnt going to affect them as they believe that the price will increase after the drop and perhaps after few years the price is going to be 4-5 figures at least . Sad truth indeed ( I am not literally a hodler so yeah )

BTC is always wild west, but if you look at the stock markets atm you'll see that BTC is incredible chilled right now.

To your 690$ goal, if the market moves against you, you should consider a short and don't just hold and pray, but it looks like a new bull market is ahead so just hold (my opinion):)

Thinking about this type of scenario, i would had been force to at lease day trade in order to get a better position ther for lowering the breaking even mark.

wait for bitcoin to get back up is just nuts I'll be thinking about $690 all day lmao.

Well it doesn't hurt to ride a few other waves that come in on the way to $690 if the opportunity arises
Holding till then seems to work but looking at the Litecoin rally having a few multipliers to burn is always a good idea.

Don't worry about missing out, I don't think anyone holding Bitcoin today has missed out on anything long term.

Since you were smart enough to not put in more than you can lose, you're already a winner. Just be patient. Not only will bitcoins become more valuable, but as more businesses accept them their functional value will grow as well. The game's not over until you cash out.

You have posted this thread on March 01, 2015, 11:34:57 PM, so you can compare now and then value of Bitcoin, I hope you are nearing to the point of break even, hope you will make it down the line in 6 months or a year and wishing you for very good luck !
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope" -- Martin Luther King, Jr.

Patience my friends, Bitcoin is now at 300$, it was 200$ a few months ago, so we definitely see progress now, with greece unfolding.

What we need now is more time, and more work to promote bitcoin, and it will be more than 700$ then :)

It take time lots of them but you will make at some point

In a year's time, it will be over $690. Just be patient.

I think we'll be over $700 by December... we'll see.  :)

Not sure if you could break even recently but yes in the future you can do so.

You for sure will not win if you bought at 690 and sold at 280.. You might get it back later if you hold. You might lose the rest if you don't..

It is going up folks.
 Its already 290$, a few more weeks and you will recover your money.

I dont think it is near that time that the bitcoin price will be 690 usd, it is huge for now and it is unreachable at least

Haha, I doubt it will be that easy!
To the OP, I am absolutely positive that you will break even at some point in the future. Not only that, but if you hold long enough, you will even make money! :)

Yes, truely said.
And when the mining is over, the bitcoins will become rare and rare as no new bitcoins will be formed and there will be more and more people who will lost their passowrd. So wait till the end of mining thing and see the prices.

I would just hold for a few more years and see where it goes, you can invest in some other Alts if you wanna try your luck, but best bet is to just hold and hope for the best.

If you're so into bitcoin and sure it will go up, just buy and hold. Trading is gambling. Also, if you're bullish on bitcoin, those panic selling drops are times to buy not to sell.

Just hold and you'll profit.

i think that you will surely end up in profit in a few years i mean there will be bitcoin block reward halving what will most probably lead into a jump of a price, also if you will keep more you can even get more than 690 each

In long term, $690 is a good price.

now this bitlicense crap really put some bad pressure on bitcoin, but dont worry its only temporary.

Venezuela,colombia,uruguay,nicaragua,nigeria,thailand,philipines,mexico and many other places are booming in bitcoin services and will be ground 0 for bitcoin.

I think NY is overrated, as wallstreet is not that imporant anymore as once was.

NY has passed a great opportunity, to be a center of this new technology. All eyes were kind of in NY, waiting to take initiative and to embrace Bitcoin, but they have done completely oposite. I guess they haven't done a favour to themselves or to the Bitcoin community, but never mind, we will recover and they will be regreting forever. Now that NY is out, there are so many other places that are just waiting to snatch this opportunity.

I don't care about New York.

The problem is if other states follows New York.

The problem is if USA follows that, and then Russia, China, Germany, Canada, etc.

Bitcoin could become a global currency, but it will be so regulated and watched, that it will lose all appeal.

we know that at least two countries will not do it, japan where bitcoin is basically free from any law, and canada where bitcoin isn't restricted like in many other countries

in any case you can always go to liberland i guess  :D

No.

Exactly, BitLicense plus this XT fork and block size debate have really put some pressure on the price. So the sliding down isn't that unexpected. As soon as one of these problems get solved, or forgotten (like NY BitLicense crap as you sad) or we get XT fork situation solved, we will head up again. We were in the very nice uptrend before all of this, but this is just too much stuff to bear about.

And yes, who gives a crap about NY, they have shot themselves in the foot!

I think bitcoin will have similar effects like how we wanted to pass the marajuana law for the state level and for federal.

Its going through it now, while it takes so many years for acceptance that eventually a couple states consider it legal. I think bitcoin will be the same for a similar or faster process depending on the public.

the very reason it takes time to pass such laws is because it directly affects lives of thousands of individuals, so either they expand details for better decision making or laze out and vote in at the end, providing results which we noticed in terms of marijuana. Speaking about mari J, I think US will legalize it completely because the reports are out now, it does more good than what the reports stated, it actually cures cancer. The only damage you can get from mari J is if you smoke it, because well, smoking is harmful. Bake cookies with mari J, guys :*

I totally agree. In the grand scheme of things New York might be a very small piece of the puzzle, but if it sets a precedent that other states and countries follow it could be extremely detrimental to the development and adoption of Bitcoin around the world. 

unless he needs the funds immediately, he should hold. No reason why to sell now,  eventually if you wait it will get above 690$.

Yea but i start to think that this sabotage is deliberate. Think about it, if the elite want to destroy bitcoin, dont they just want to destroy it be dividing it?

DIVIDE ET IMPERAM as Julius Caesar said, divide & conquer is the best way to destroy something


I just think Bitcoin has been infiltrated by unpleasant people who want to destroy it.

Not any time soon. I would stay bulllish as hell now that we'll see lower prices thanks to the blocksize debate and people having doubts (ignore them they are clueless and bitcoin will live on one way or another). Keep buying monthly, all month is bull month.

I think this is the last time bitcoin will be this cheap, next bounce off i think it will take off and go to the moon!

I just hope it doesnt even get back to 500 $ ever, it stays 700$-1000$ range for the next 2-3 years!

Yes. Stable price is very important.

"Stable" price on low volume (traded) does not bode well in respect to long-term price stability

itll take a pretty long time to get to 690 because once the price rises a bit,people start dumping their coins and it goes back down again.

buying some amount of bitcoin with some faint money or paper money will be a good step if you really dreaming for a 690$ break don't waste the time if gonna jump upward soon it will start hopping soon

It really is a test of the OP's patience rather than anything else.
Maybe he will wait the "pretty long time" it takes.  :)

It's time to look at this graph and get some perspective:

http://www.bitcointrading.com/img/totalbitcoinsovertime.png

Look how step the curve gets in the following 10 years.
We are still lucky to be here able to buy Bitcoins for this low price, so don't waste your time and get ready. We are still early adopters and we will be rewarded by time, just let Bitcoin develop and scarcity + demand will bring us victory.

ALL,

Thanks for all the messages, I read every one of them and you guys are very positive which is refreshing during this time.

But real talk, what the FUCK is going on with this sub $250-$300 price? (Edit- Actually the price is at $230 now, wow)... we are about to approach 2 years of bear market. You early motherfuckers used to see massive bubbles every year, now it's almost become a fantasy. What if there are no more bubbles? What if the block size debate and other limitations becomes the end of bitcoin? What if the devs decide to get rid of the 21million supply cap? There are so many things that are possible that could lead us to a shitty price....

Yet I still have hope. I'm almost positive we are in the extreme lows right now and the price will eventually rise by 2016 block halving. But I have my doubts about it reaching ATH again, or even $1000, or even $690 where I would break even (Update- I've been buying in the 200s and my price avg should be lower than $690... it's maybe about $630 now). It just sucks that I will probably have to wait another year to see any exciting action... I'm really sick of all the bad news and the bear market that never ends.




Excuse me?



Wow, 6 months ago.... and the price right now is $230, pretty sure it's lower than when I posted  :-[
But still, I know bitcoin is going through rough patches right now....




That's what I'm thinking, about needing to hold for a few years....I don't forsee any kind of rally or exciting news anytime soon.





You are very optimistic, it's just hard to be when you see the kind of bullshit that's been happening over the last year. Any tiny uprising we see in price have been crushed by downward pressure. Any good news gets buried by all the bad ones. The sentiment and confidence in the community seems to be near an all time low, which is understandable because of this damn 2 year bear market. I just hope things turn around and go the other way for once

thats a high price point to go for i believe.

When positive news flow into bitcoin market, the demand decide the bitcoin price like $1200. When negative news (like MT GOX collapse) flow in, the mining cost decides the bitcoin price. So, all the prices are break even as bitcoin has been designed like that with difficulty and together sharing mining capabilities.

Sorry, but the labor theory of value doesn't work here (or there). In fact, it doesn't work anywhere (despite its appeal)

So many years for growing BTC amount to $690 or even more.... :)

If you want to wait for many years, then maybe you can break even. But in near future, I don't think so.

Status: Newbie


Please go ------->

The price is insanely manipulated, the marketcap is tiny (which only shows the potential Bitcoin has to grow). It's a waste of time trying to mentally masturbate about the price too much, the best tactic is just to buy as much as possible monthly. If you study the technology and understand the context in history where Bitcoin has appeared it should be clear how it is destined to win. Of course everything can go to 0, but I would say there is a 20% chance vs 80% of it becoming insanely valuable in the next years.

I would cut your losses once it goes back to $300 a coin. Bitcoin has become a lot more stable since it was $600 a coin. More states and countries have accepted or welcomed bitcoin, and I believe with more regulatory acceptance, the more stable the price will be. You may have to wait 5 years for it to get anywhere near that price, and thats a long time and a lot of risk to wait that long if you are trying to recoup those losses.

Ask not what bitcoin price appreciation can do for you but what you can do to help promote the adoption of bitcoin.

Hoping the price will go up will not help anyone. Building something useful with blockchain technology just might.

With difficulty change according to mining hash rates which is actually getting change along with number of miners which has main attraction with current bitcoin price. So, everything come in one chain to get the price feasible at any level.

he can probably do it next year from 6 to 3 months before the halving, it's guaranteed that something will happen by then, and because everyone know it, they will make something actually happen.

Yes it will happen within 1 year of OP posting date, 31 march 2016
2016 will be the year of bitcoin again like 2013 was

If the price dips just hold it until it rises, then sell if you want to get out. Investing in anything is always a risk, and btc is no different.

Just curious... what is your reasoning behind this? Is it because of those major banks like Barclays using the blockchain?

The litmus test of whether you've invested too much is if you panic when price drops.  Invest only what you're willing to lose and stick with it the whole way through or until your exit strategy kicks in.

most people buying high and selling low, and then crying in a couple of years while asking to themselves why they sold an asset that has grown by more than 1000% every years since it's creation

I just finished crunching the numbers. Sorry :-[

For sure. You must go to everyone person on this earth and talk with everyone about it. Then you must convince everyone of them that bitcoin is a big invention and have to many specifics that make it unique. You must convince them about its importance and about the future of it. You must convince them that everyone of them must have as much as they can bitcoin in their wallet for their benefit. In this way they will run to buy some. This will increase to much the demand for bitcoin and this increased demand will raise without doubt the price of it. Doing all this will be end of story. You will have not only your $690 price but much more and you will have not only your break even but even much profit.