Bitcoin Forum

lotta price increase without impressive volume / $ amounts

and BTW that previous sell from a few days ago was a test run, no true panic volume on the so called "panic day".

The real panic day is yet to come. Don't know when, but I don't want any part of it. These parabolic rises are never a good thing.

Why would you dump now though? The crashes do not begin when bitcoin is stable, the begin when it is rallying and making a huge increase for the day.

+1, if you want to help stop parabolic rise, start selling at 500+

hmmm, I would call bitcoin stable when it spends months between 120 and 150

however it seems some believe stable is going from 150 to 400 in under 1 month?

yeah it could go to 500, 800, 1000........   but when this thing goes into full panic it falls faster than anything i have ever seen. So for me, nothanks. If it makes it to 1000 I'll sell all my remaining 25%.

You are missing the best part of bitcoin.

There is nothing magical about today's price or $1000.
They are your coins, do with them as you please, but if you want to lock in some profits, my advice would be to sell proportionally to the price.
Lets say you have 100 coins, currently worth ~$350K. Pick some number you are comfortable risking. Lets say $200K. So you sell the difference, $150K worth of bitcoins now. If/when bitcoin continues to rise in price, keep selling so that your remaining coins are still worth $200K. That way,  not matter how high bitcoin goes, you will never completely miss the boat, perhaps one day you will only have 1BTC left, but it would still be worth $200K. At the same time, no matter how low it drops, you would have locked in a decent chunk of profit.

ANyway, thats roughly how I do it, and have been doing since $100/BTC.
And sure, "had I known", it would have been better to keep those coins, but I dont regret my strategy one bit.

Absolutely.  Please take the advice of someone who believes 350 * 100 = 350,000.  Excellent Plan. :)

Okay if you want, but the volume has been low because of two day weekend and one bank holiday and a gox being down. That volume is totally normal. Sell now and you will miss the first day of fresh fiat on the accounts!

yeah! it's 3,500,000 right? to be fair, though, even mathematicians can sometimes make that mistake... so it doesn't make what he said null and void. if he has a fair amount of holdings, he should know that 100 BTC is not 350k though. he either has a lot or a very small amount i'd say.

Are you sure about that?  Its never done that before and there is every reason to think that we will never see $150 again.  So on your logic, Bitcoin will go over $10k without ever having been "stable."

yeah i don't think it'll go lower than its starting point, which was something like $110 from the new of SR going down. seems like bitcoin takes 2 steps forward and 1 back.

Why does it have to crash? couldn't the price just stay where it is?
Everyone talks like it is binary - to the moon or crash.  Long term i think that is correct but in the next few weeks it's not.

Quite possible. But here is the catch: If the price crashes, it will be up again - losses are no losses until you realize them. But if something like Cyprus happens again after you sell, Bitcoin will never be that low again. Some of my friends sold at $20. One is still hoping that he can buy back at single digit.

Right, so I missed a zero. That of course completely changes the logic  ::)

One is still hoping that he can buy back at single digit.
[/quote]

Tell your friend good luck with that.

Some people will never learn, even if you will have a proof in front of your eyes. One Swedish comes as an example who after few years was able to afford a house. We are far from mainstream which means it can still happen to everyone of us. There is only one condition. Don't sell now.
Also, there is plenty of people who are really regretting they sold they coins when they were double or single digits. If anyone wants to make their mistake now, then it's perfectly fine for me. I will be happy reading what they have to say after few months/years.

Well, there is still hope - to buy Bitcoin for single digit ounces of gold ;)

Fully agreed, taking all the chances I have with bitcoin, mostly holding, but trading a bit on Bitfinex to increase my little stash of coins. However, at some point I'll cash out to retrieve my initial investment, but only when it's a small amount in relation to my overall worth in bitcoins.

For the record: He was Norwegian, not Swedish. And I think this story fueled quite a bit of the general public's recent interest in bitcoin.

Definitely. Get rich quick always draws the masses in.
Just like the Poker boom was set in motion by an average Joe winning a huge tournament, the Norwegian story did wonders for Bitcoin. We need more of those.

doesn't change the logic, but there is a *huge* difference between 35,000 and 350,000. :-)

If you have 35,000 then my advice is to wait for 350,000. Not that it's a small amount of money, but 35,000USD is an amount of money you could actually earn from a normal, not so special job. So in my mind it's "riskable", $350,000 however is not money you could actually earn from a normal job. It's more like a decade of working at a normal job. So yeah, I'd hold out for the "ten years of not having to work a regular job" level.

< I'm into Bitcoins since I read about that guy two weeks ago in a local newspaper  ;)

Guys there will be no panic day :)
because of the known number of btc in circulation.
People who know that will never sell bitcoins on dumps will just buy the cheap one's :)
 

We need a lot less of these stories.  Anything with a return in the thousands of percent per year sounds like a scam.  If it's too good to true... and all that.  People need to use bitcoin because it's useful and fills a niche in the financial system.  I would rather not have them enter the system because they think they'll be millionaires in a couple of years time for pocket change today.

Well for me it worked, I got curious about bitcoin because of that story but then as I informed myself the idea behind bitcoin and the consequences of its wide adoption made me even more interested than just the getting rich possibility. Now I genuinely want to contribute for this thing to succeed. I think stories like those could lure many type of people and that's kind of good IMO.

in terms of btc a 10fold difference is nothing. just another year.

currently i need another 4fold and i will retire  ;D

There is always panic when the trains leaves the station without you ;).

I entered late so three years for me :D

I need 15x more to retire, but "I'm an idiot that should sell all my coins immediately because it's a bubble."

So did you dump them?

yeah I sold approx 300 coins between 320 and 380

I have 100 coins left

I will dump all at $1000 if that happens within a few weeks

you guys do all realize that only around 5% of us can take profit on bitcoin? any more than that and the price will literally go to $10 or so

on the day silk road got shutdown, there was heavy selling volume on the exchanges, approx 200 000 coins ( or 2%). not all of those were sells, so lets say 160 000 sells.

that was enough to drop BTC price almost 50% on some exchanges

now..... imagine 5% of people or 600 000 coins are sold within 48 hours.

it would literally devastate bitcoin prices.

So....... although I like bitcoin, when you get down to it, every person who is hoarding bitcoins (myself included) is pretty much counting on the fact that they will somehow be the first to sell when the time comes. But obviously this is impossible, 95% of us have to be wrong.

Only on bitcointalk is a 173% gain in 30 days considered "stable".

Note: I am not saying buy, sell, or hold just pointing out the unintentional humor in that statement.

"Can you believe it, the DOW doubled last month?  I know I haven't seen stability like that in years".

I personally think this is a myopic view, but feel free to sell your coins to stronger hands.

Yeah the greed is off the charts.

Hold (years) FTW

If you have been trading for a long time,  you would realize there is no such thing as a strong or weak hand.  That saying is worthless.  There are only profitable and unprofitable hands.

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

Sure there will be a crash. But it doesn't matter, as it will rise again. But don't think there won't be one -- it will be more sickening than you expect.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

You literally don't get it.  Bitcoin doesn't have to go to zero until something better comes along.  Then it will be those who don't accept progress who once again are left with the rubble of the old ways.

Only one thing to do now.

PANIC

Taken care of

http://images.wikia.com/glee/images/0/04/Oh-noes-everybody-panic.gif

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

You sir are one of the few on these boards that seems to understand what profit-taking means around here.  Congrats on your sale.  Go buy a car outright and pay off the mortgage.

You don't deserve to be shit on in this thread.  If it weren't for people who sold.  Bitcoin wouldn't be where it is today in the first place.  People don't seem to understand this.

Just like binary, 0 or 1, Bitcoin could greatly succeed, or greatly fail.  It's a 50-50 shot.  You were playing roulette and landed on your color.  The rest of us are still spinning.

Why are you stating the obvious? How much money is there to be made in Microsoft stock? Yet people still invest in it and trade it.

What the heck is your point? Everything you say is obvious.

Go study the potential market cap for bitcoin if it becomes integrated into society in one or various ways. Then you will understand that you are just pissing into the wind right now.

Three accounts.


Sell all in number one when it hits $500

Sell all in number two when it hits $1,000

Never sell all in account number three :)

Every time BTC triples, sell half.  You will never run out of coins and your BTC and non-BTC wealth will increase as long as the exchange rate does.

Left holding "the bag"? Sir, USD is the bag, Bitcoin is the prize.

so in all stock trade the majority of the buyers will get burned ? why is stock trading still around ? why do you have companies with stocks that are selling for decades ? and bitcoin isn´t even a stock, stock performance isn´t the limit.

You forgot about dividends.

No, I didn't realize that.  I believe that those of us with bitcoins would sell slowly to those who Mommy Newscaster is telling to buy even though it's way too late.  And we would make a lot of money.  Sure, someone could panic sell leading to more panic sells and a crash, but I don't see how that's in anyone's interest when we could all sell slowly.  Still, it could happen, but I think if 5% of the money leaves, then bitcoin would probably go down by...5%?

And a drop from $140 to $110 isn't 50% by my calculations.  And the immediate correction to $130 scares me even less.


I still don't accept the initial premise.  Yes, if 50% of the money exited on the same day this would be the case.  But not 5%.  I just don't see it.  And since Apple, Google, Microsoft and the like haven't disappeared even though they have probably lost 5% of their value at some point, I just don't buy this line of reasoning.

Still, glad to see you are taking some small profits and are happy with your result.  We'll see if this thread is mocked or celebrated in the future, but personally, since it's the difference between retiring next year or working the rest of my life, I'll wait it out a bit longer.  If I'm wrong, I can always just work the rest of my life and not worry about what I have lost because I can afford to lose it.

Your logic is faulty, that's not how it works.
Consider if some fatal bug was discovered, that made it very clear bitcoin will never succeed. Nobody would be a buyer anymore (except perhaps some crazy person, who could buy all of them for pennies), the money that went into bitcoin would never flow out.  The perceived wealth just disappeared, thereby causing a negative 'wealth effect', decreasing inflation.
In the opposite example, bitcoin can represent more wealth than the dollars that were put into it.

Nice post.

Definitely not how the FED works.

untrue. unless you are saying the stock is say twitter or something similar. then I will give you that. But if the stock is say a large oil company, they 1) have assets 2) have revenue 3) pay dividends..... this is not the same as bitcoin

or lets say you just speculate on a commodity like corn. those futures represent something tangible and quantifiable - corn.

sorry, but your calculations are incorrect. Go look at the order depth for bitcoin and add them up across the major exchanges. Of the 5 biggest exchanges, where 90% + o the volume is per day, there are approx 400 000 buy orders parked above $100.

However in a free fall a lot of those buys get pulled. So to summarize, if there is sustained selling of 400 000 coins over hours (for whatever reason due to a panic) the price will be around $100 at best from here.

the day gox crashed from 260 to 100 in one day, was less than 200 000 coins sold, which was approx 2 to 3% of the float.

BTW of the last two parabolic moves up in bitcoin, first one lasted 20 days

second one lasted close to 40 days

we are currently at 30 days on this one

So since the length of each parabolic move up is double that of the previous, this one should last for 80 days.

Right?

yeah its possible it lasts 80 days, I give you that

but I believe its unlikely, my opinion. To keep the same pace which parabolic moves need to do so they do not collapse upon themselves, that would put bitcoin at approx $3000 at the end of 80 days.

if it lasts less than 40 days, then there is definitely a good range guide for future parabolic moves (20 to 40 days).

Of course.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png

lol. very funny I am stealing that image

It has been above 100 (95% of the time) since July.

That's not sufficient for you?

Your criteria are included in anything above 120 .... so you have 3 solid months above 100.

no, if you read my post it says between 120 and 150

not above 120 only

prices tripling in 30 days is not even close to stable.

Good things come to those who wait.....

And for those who can`t, at the very least enjoy the ride!

Have you considered the possibility of the exact opposite outcome?

In a hyperinflationary scenario only 5 percent can get out of government fiat before it's value is completely destroyed. The remaining 95 percent have to get burnt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/porsche-911s-at-39-off-spurs-argentina-crackdown-on-peso.html

The same scenario could play out in every country, not just Argentina. Sure, you might "profit" in government fiat in the short term, but in the long term the outcome is not as clear.

I'll take my chances with Bitcoin, Gold and Silver, thank you.

yeah right and let me guess, all the buy and hold forevers are going to come back to this forum after bitcoin has crashed and claim they sold within $10 of the top.

I made a spreadsheet (linked to from this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=326308.0)) that lets you play around with the short-term and long-term impacts of various cash-out strategies on the way up.

I use it to the withdrawal percentages at which I don't need to lose sleep over the short-term movements of Bitcoin price, nor the long-term impact of a total collapse, or insane success.

Thread conversation seemed to gravitate towards tax implications and the broader notion of wealth management. That's a layer above the intent of the thread and spreadsheet, so I feel compelled to add: Due your own diligence regarding the tax implications of your selling strategy.

The top is a long long way off.  Bitcoin is not even at the start of being adopted by a small country.  I worked out that Cyprus alone would push the value to well over $11k immediately it switched.  

The stutters you see in today's markets are just background noise in an inevitable climb.

All the buy-and-hold forevers have seen many such topics at $7, $14, $30 levels. We pity you.

It's good to have some fiat available so you can buy in when there is a crash. That is, if you are long-term bullish on bitcoin which pretty much everyone here is or they wouldn't be on this forum.

I had roughly 1,000 coins and planned on selling 250 at $350. I've sold 100 so far and hopefully will no be able to sell the other 150 at >$400.

If bitcoin continues to rise, great, the rest of my coins will be worth more.

If it crashes to below $300 or even below $200 I'll take the $100k fromt he sold coins and buy back. I'll have more coins than I started with and still be happy. Being long term bullish I know it will be back above $400 again even if there is a huge crash.

Nobody knows what the top is... bitcoin investors are becoming so starry eyed now that some are believing it's an almost certainty that bitcoin is going to reach a 100x market cap (or more). Bitcoin is nowhere close to large scale adoption, there are far too many security and safekeeping issues involved for the average user. There are still many things that could happen between now and then that could cause bitcoin to fall to zero (or close).

The crash will be epic.

Indeed. The coming crash will bleed all the starry eyed investors who think Bitcoin is still going to up exponentially before correcting.

A very expensive lesson is awaiting the uber-confident.


Smart money will come back in and scoop up cheaper Bitcoins for the real ride to the top :D


Crash, here we come!

Don't forget $0.5, $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, and $6.

Taking a profit is never stupid.*  You stay liquid, you can buy back in, and you (currently) can use your profits to pay for any expense you might incur.  Basically, you win.

*A caveat: taking a profit might be stupid if your decision to profit isn't based upon the same principles as your overall approach to investing (e,g, buy and hold until BTC reaches 'x' price, or 'y' years, etc.).

When you invest, you need to create an investment plan and stick to it, otherwise you're basically gambling.  "Feelings" and intuition are good at times, but in general, it's thinking that keeps you consistent, and thinking can let you know when some "feelings" are justified.

For example, let's say that you believe Bitcoin is going to be around for at least 5 more years and that the market will continue to grow throughout that time.  Let's also say that you've spent a significant amount of time researching everything there is to know about Bitcoin to reach those conclusions.  If a few months later you get a "feeling" that the price is too high because it has been rising rapidly, and if this feeling encourages you into selling the majority of your holdings, then your decision is at odds with your original beliefs about Bitcoin.  You may have profited, but your own reasoning initially suggested that holding would have been a better option...you expected the rise in price to begin with.

oh yeah, I agree, epic... normally I leave buy orders back down to try buy back in but this time I am too scared, i think I might sit this one out or at least place buy orders at an insanely low number, like $70

if you look at exchange volume, almost all this new money into BTC has come from china. And working with the chinese on a weekly basis, my opinion is that they couldn't care one bit about the philosophical pros of bitcoin. They are in it for one thing - to make money. So when they sell, there might be some big selling.

 

I don't remember $2 profit taking, only some pathetic "fuck it I'm out of here" threads :) proudhon, nice to see you, are you here to predict the crash to single digits again or you changed to some other target? :)

I am long term bullish on Bitcoin.  Hell Bitcoin gave me the financial freedom to leave my "day job" and start my own company.  However comments (combined with recent price action) like the one you replied to (and others) ake me wonder if I should move some coins out of cold storage and sell into the rally.

It seems like you are right.  It is no longer Bitcoin "may" reach $10,000 (or $100,000, or $1 quadrillion or any other target you want) but that it is a 100% certainty Bitcoin will go up 1000x from here.  Not only will it go up, it will do so with no corrections along the way.  Not only will there be corrections along the way the idea of mass adoptions in years (or a decade) has now been shrunk to months.  Another thread I saw some noob with no idea how Bitcoin works, what it is, or why it has utility just wanting to buy some with a credit card before it explodes overnight making everyone billionaires.  Anectdotes I know but the sentiment has turned to short term hyper bullish.

Note: I am not making a prediction on a timeline or severity of any future crash just pointing out that in any market (and yes Bitcoin is not immune) when sentiment turns to 100% bullish that is usually when a correction is right around the corner.  Lately even the sentiment itself has been in a bubble, "Bitcoin hits $500 by the end of the year, no Bitcoin hits $1,000 by the end of the month, no Bitcoin hits $20,000 by the time I finish taking a shit" (ok I made last one up but you get my point).

That's why I keep my Bitcoin in different baskets. I bought Bitcoin with the outlook that I would be tempted to sell at different times, so I put them in three different "baskets."

Exactly. Sell when everyone is yelling "buy!"
Buy when there's blood in the streets.

Gox $445 lol

wow the froth is foaming at the mouth now

I am now 90% out

the chart is now literally almost vertical lol

I sold my stash today as well. Chinese market is going up slowly while the others are racing like crazy. Most of my BTC came from the last dip and that gave me $100 per BTC in just 3 days. I dont want to push my luck, got bills to pay and things to buy.

Keep in mind that China is still below its all-time high. It's currently 2577 on http://bitcoinity.org/markets/btcchina/CNY (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/btcchina/CNY) and the high is 2630. Assuming they break it, the current rally will keep going a lot higher.

cant be right all the time. If it goes to $1000 so be it. No regrets here. Better to be wrong and still make a bunch of money, than be wrong and lose a bunch of money.

I just cashed in approx $100 000 usd for doing pretty much nothing.

This is what a lot of people in this thread dont understand. They are saying BTC price isnt sustainable.

How about the $100M the US treasury issues every hour? Think about that. Just think about how much $100M is, and how long 1 hour is.

Yes, the USD might be the prettiest horse in the glue factory, but its still a horse is a glue factory. Simple as that people.

http://www.finehomebuilding.com/assets/uploads/posts/10743/burning_money.jpg

You're right.  I literally don't get this (since, from my perspective, it isn't remotely true).  Enlighten me instead of repeating yourself.

Give examples where this has obviously happened to a new technology that followed a Sigmoid curve in the past.

Congrats. There's nothing wrong with following the old adage, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." Nothing wrong with locking in some profits. But I think being in 90% fiat and only 10% bitcoin right after we broke through the all-time high might be too cautious. If China breaks it's all-time high (which could happen today) do you plan to get back in at least 50% bitcoin? I think that would be a good risk to take. JMHO.

It's like the stock market. If I can sell now and buy again at $200, I will do it.

If you hold then more power to you, but you are missing out on opportunity.

Loss of opportunity = Loss of potential profit.

That's a good point. I don't fault anyone for a successful strategy. You executed a clear plan and made a big profit. So what if the price goes to $1000.

I really do like the concept of bitcoin, I think it is brilliant. I think the coins could have been distributed better, and I think that because so many got the coins for so little, it makes the prices unstable, but those are minor points.

that being said, I  think the final value of bitcoin will be ZERO for 2 reasons

1) governments will never ever let bitcoin compete with their local currencies. And bitcoin has a major Achilles heel - the exchanges. Destroy the exchanges worldwide, make the banks know they are in trouble for aiding anything bitcoin, and you destroy bitcoin.
2) people are too greedy, and not everyone can withdraw their money from bitcoin. You being able to withdraw to fiat relies on the fact that the other 95% do not want to. Eventually there will be a massive cashout which will destroy the bitcoin price.

But again this is irrelevant to my trading strategy. I trade futures, options, forex etc, have been doing so for 15 years. I don't get attached to anything, I am purely here to make money. All I am doing is looking for blow off tops and panic sells in bitcoin. And bitcoin is perfect for that, because unlike the futures market for example, where I am trading against hedge funds, deep pocketed veterans, HFT bots etc etc in bitcoin I am trading against a pretty idealistic crowd of people who generally have zero trading experience (no offence to anyone).

Cant lie Im rooting for a huge correction so I can scoop up some cheap coins, moving around half my fiat holdings over.

Which is weird, because I want BTC to explode and succeed but Im also selfish, because Im a human being and this is a once in a generation opportunity.

jason you make good points, you are here for the sole purpose of short-term making small amounts of USD, and your goal seems to be accomplished while also helping make the climb up less vertical. All is good :) I actually like more pros getting to know about bitcoins because when shit would really start hitting the fan (i.e. you would not know where to run with the stash of paper) you guys would be the ones driving price from 10k to infinity.

It is also possible that you will gradually see more and more value in storing part of your overall portfolio in BTC longterm. Right now, the faith seems weak in you :) Government can ban all exchanges in the world tomorrow and it won't change a thing, after the panic dissipates.

I don't expect to sell within 10% of the "top".  I expect a stable price for many years just like Apple or Google stock.

Cool.  Well, nice seeing you around here.  Take care.

Honestly I expected 400 today/tomorrow then approaching 500 on friday and then a correction down to 350 on sunday but now I think people will be thinking anything under 400 is a bargain just like at the last correction people thought anything under 300 is a bargain at which point we started going back up.

You don't say.

News flash: Bitcoin ISN'T a stock.  But no wonder you keep acting like it is.

It is subject to corrections like a stock.

We're heading for a correction. There's no doubt about that. We're rising like paypal have announced a totally safe way and easy way to buy bitcoin yet bitcoin is neither easy nor arguably safe to buy.

No.  It's not.  It's a technology that's being adopted.  A stock in an established company CANNOT go logarithmic for 6 years straight but a brand-new technology CAN (difference between the early years of Microsoft and IBM during the same period).  Massive difference.  And one that experienced stock traders have complete blinders about.  

A couple months of logarithmic increase that is right on schedule (which follows 4 years of the exact same logarithmic increase that they weren't here for) and they panic sell and call everyone else idiots and throw up chicken little "sky is falling" warnings.  

My point is that the big shakers are going to crash the price so they can buy it up cheaper. That's all.

If you think Bitcoin is going up up up, and that it's not going to correct harshly like in April, you are in for a surprise.

+1

Bitcoin husband nailed it.
All these finance experts telling me what bitcoin is going to do, and have been wrong .. oh ... 100% of the time.
The smartest of them finally acknowledged to me "This is something completely new.  Its not following the rules"
This is why their "knowledge" is going to be a stumbling block for them.

Bitcoin is NOT a stock.  ive been saying this over and over and over.
there are some similar aspects, but many very important ones simply dont match,

How can April happen again?   Bitcoin hasn't spiked and then dropped.  April happened.  It didn't happen twice.  Doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the different shape of the lines...

Hi guys, great thread and good conversation. I guess the thing that I would try to add is that, essentially, everyone is right (with the exception of Bitcoin failing).

What I'm trying to say is that the pattern of Bitcoin, seems, obviously:

up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up UPUPUPUPUPUP!!!!!!!!!! AND DOOOOOOOOOOOWNNNNNNN, (This parabolic correction to the norm being where people get a wee bit fired up), up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up...

He's not saying 'sell all your bitcoin it's going to zero.' He's more saying something like 'if you sell 10 bitcoins now you'll be able to pickup 12 bitcoins at the weekend'

I assure you that bitcoin is indeed playing by the "rules". The rules dictate that when an asset's speculation outstrips it's real world utility, a price drop is not far away. We're in the middle of a manic bull swing right now, so it might be hard for people to unplug and recognize that, but nothing has fundamentally changed with bitcoin in the past few weeks to justify a 3x rise in value. I'm not sure why the comparison to stocks means anything here. Currencies and stocks can both be purchased and speculated upon, both can be overvalued and both will eventually fall back in such situations.

Re: "the stock" issue. I don't like this all-or-nothing approach. I see a lot of this "bitcoin doesn't behave like a stock, don't analyze it as such." But, TA has nothing to do with stocks, per se. It attempts to analyze market psychology. Bitcoin does not exist inside a vacuum apart from market psychology. It is also clear to me from watching a couple very good analysts making very good entry/exit calls that there is indeed something to it.

Shrug....

lol

bitcoin is worse than a stock, right now its a chinese MOMO machine.....

what store of value or financial instrument has one day value fluctuations of 20%? none, because no sane person would consider this a safe store of value.

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about ::).

oh but you are so wrong, the exchanges die, bitcoin will die. Do you really think people are going to walk around on the street dealing with strangers for cash to buy bitcoins? and what will you do with these bitcoins since the only way to use them would be the black market?


there are lots of other ways to protect against inflation / fiat debasement other than bitcoin (which I am not going to get into).

Unfortunately I do not have a time machine like everyone else on bitcointalk. Like I said earlier when we see the top, I am sure everyone on this forum will post they sold within $10 of the top.

Meanwhile where is your trade log showing how you doubled the amount of coins you owned through trading? Perhaps you can use your time machine to go back in time and fix that?

I think this will go to 1000 before correction..

the chinneses still sees prices below 500 as extremely cheap.

Even if you didn't sell at the top of the top, I'm sure you're still coming away from this with more cash than 99% of the people who post here. Many of them are firmly planted in the driver's seat of the bitcoin train, and will be gripping the throttle, white knuckled, as it goes flying off the cliff.

Of course, I'm not saying it's going to fail, but given the current trajectory I'd say it's the more likely scenario.

and violate the temporal prime directive?

no f'n way!

I doubt, corection will happen much sonner. Its good decision to dump part of coins. At least I hope, I already dumped some

Your comments tell me you are only a trader. Not an innovator or someone who understands ascendent technology. You are definitely not a visionary.

You think we are near the top. Good for you. That's the only way you know how to communicate and interact with BTC because you only see this from a traders perspective.  Congrats, btw on doubling the # of coins you have, coins in which you think will be worthless.

Many many people trading BTC have double there coins and doubled their profit. Not hard to do as an early trader.

Btw, I have traded a variety of things for years also. And I think your technical analysis is absolutely incorrect. While China may be leading this rise, China did not start it. It just took the lead. And we will go up for a bit more and then we will correct. But China isnt going to crash anything.

April 2013 does not  equal Nov. 2013. If you did more research on the Bitcoin eco-system you would know this already. But I am not going to try to explain it to you.

I just wonder if you'll be on here to eat your crow when we go over $1000 in 2014? Doubt it.

He doubled his coins on a big correction. I'd be happy with that. I'd say he did pretty well. Many losers trading this market.

well good luck all, I am signing out of this thread for a while

I will manually sell my last 10% of BTC at $1000

I have buy orders layered in from $150 down to $70

People said it would go to 300 during the last bubble.

It never did. I never sold and I got burned.

This time it makes sense to sell at least a little as it goes up. When the inevitable correction comes you can buy back in. If not, you still can continue to make money on the coins you have left.

I feel that the chances of us seeing <$300 again are greater than the chances of us seeing $1000. We will see $1000 someday, the question is whether there will be a crash before then.

I bought most of my coins at around $10, so I am not sad selling at $400.

Nice.  Good job.  But if you bought them at $10, how did you get burned?

Probably where "most" comes into play.

What percent of your sale are you using to get back in?  Do you start with a smaller percent at layer $150 or a higher one?  Four layers?  And what reasoning did you layer between those values?

Thanks.

So, let's see, you missed your buy order.


$35 was a dumb buy price, because you'd still be holding fiat.  The $159 that I bought some of my coins at is sounding like a much better buy right about now, since it's worth almost 3× now.


Sounds like you were saying the same things then.


Yeah, OK, that's dumb.  Don't borrow money to invest in bitcoin.  You could lose it all.


Sounds smart to me.

Must look at Log Chart to have realistic comparison with the past.. This is'nt going parabolic yet..   Log Scale are much more realistic.. Linear Scale chart are amplified version and not a good reference imo ..

I often smile when I see people talking so much about the $500 and $1000 price points.. Have we not yet realized the majority of bitcoins are traded in the great land of China?

I'm out - for real this time.

busy using all the proceeds to buy gold (yeah I know that will be a very unpopular decision here because bitcoin is much better than gold, but so be it).

I will consider buying bitcoin again at $70 or under (obviously not with parked orders as those are gone), and i would probably need to see it stabilize under 70 for me to get interested, not just a spike down.

watching the exchanges last night, any sell candle for 1000 to 2000 BTC would drop each of the 4 big exchanges prices approx 5 to 7% - so any sale of 1/50 to 1/100th of 1% of BTC coins in existence drops the exchanges 5 to 7% - which is totally nuts. You all skating on ice that is about 1 atom thick.

But those are my last thoughts on the subject, wishing you all the best of luck (really) since I no longer have any skin in the game, good luck.

I think gold is a good play.
I strongly recommend you take the physical gold
and not invest in paper gold.

I suspect people holding the paper will get forced conversion to fiat
sometime in the future.

im buying physical only

Thank you! Whoever bought your coins will be very happy in a few months. I hope you made a nice profit too.

I very much doubt we will ever see that price again.

Exactly like stock market. I do not worry too much about exchange rates volatility, 1 BTC is still 1 BTC tommorow

exactly, which is why i would like to sell on the way up and buy more tomorrow on the way down!  :D

I sold 80% of my bitcoins today. I have no regrets, I made a hefty profit.

Yeah that is the thing with selling bitcoins - you have no regrets for like a whole week, then maybe a month of being happy that you got out on "top", and then you regret it for the rest of your life :)

I guess we will see in several years. Bitcoin can perfectly survive and prosper underground, even if only used for black market trades or internet transactions - these are growing and no, paypal is not an answer. Definitely, if all exchanges and possession becomes illegal, the effect will last for years, but in the long term, bitcoin would still win, because it is unstoppable as long as internet is there, and there will always be demand for convenient internet gold, now that the idea is out of the bottle. Good luck with your metals investment ;) Maybe it will work out. Unless bitcoin takes off faster, that has a side effect of seriously devaluing gold ;)

+1

The worst case scenario. (Ownership of Bitcoin cannot be proven. .. only by owner :-) )

Can you back that statement up?  Why 5%?  Considering that far less then .1% of the worlds population holds Bitcoin wouldn't we have a long way to go?

I have no idea where the price will end up.  But even if bitcoin captures 1/10 of paypals volume the price would be pretty high. 

I have regrets almost every time cause I'm cautious (or scared) and usually sell long before the top. IMO he did good - left himself 20% and sold the rest so he can still profit. His 20% can still be more than most of us hold. If you hold big it's perfectly normal to be scared when it goes up like it did last week.

lol...best of luck

for any of tou speculators there's a link in my sig you could win some perhaps worthless coin

Shoulda held onto them OP  :o

SELL HIGH BUY HIGHER (really good strategy :-) )

Jasonjm has been conspicuously absent during this correction recovery.

Wonder if he'll ever buy back in...LOLZ...

I doubt it! People afraid of money stay broke!

i agree, its fun to watch too!

+1

I would wait 10 000$ though, you could still be a millionnaire  ;)

basically jason wasted an opportunity for 300k+ dollars because he was scared of chinese, didn't understand this has nothing to do with china.

but I still believe he can understand and come back for the next rally; very rarely people understand what bitcoin truly is on the first sight, the idea is too grand so it needs time to settle in.

every trade makes someone happy

The exchange  ;)

Every trade makes two persons happy, at the time of the trade.

or someone unhappy.. especially if you are the OP  ;D

Best quote for Bitcoin bears!

Everyone gloating in this thread is really disgusting. You're all so brilliant until you're not. Ever heard of treating people as you'd like to be treated?

i don't disagree. but i don't feel too bad about OP, he still has over $100k in bitcoins. hard to pity that.

And do you like being called disgusting?

I think this falls under the category: " is the executioner a murderer ?"

Moral?  Don't make dumb predictions on a public forum and expect not to hear about it later.

I find the people here don't make you feel bad for LOSING money...but they will let you hear it for losing potential future earnings.  There IS a difference you know.

I value honesty above niceness.  I hate the way modern society seems to prefer dishonest niceness.

*hugs*

LOL...hugs back, nervously.

man, i am thankful for this thread. whenever the sell-itching starts i read it out loud.

Indeed.

if i were OP i wouldn't really care that much.. 100 coins is plenty. he's made a lot of money and if it hits 10k, he'll have millions.

Correction.  A million.  Singular.

To be fair, he never done anything bad. It's just that his timing was terrible.

Who would have thought we would have been at 1224 today when the price was at 300.

nice

Seems nice plan, so now out of Bitcoins and waiting for the unevitable crash ?

when you guys cash out, do you prepare yourselves to pay capital gains taxes or what? it seems like it would be a headache.. i've yet to do it.

check the chart now jason, now *thats* vertical.

well, he did say he'd sell at $1k if it gets there.. i wonder if he's changed his mind or if he's sticking to the plan? either way, you'll come out making some sweet cash, so no biggie.

He cashed out 100% way before $1000 - around $500 I think. He mentioned it in another thread.

He has been conspiciously absent here recently. ;)

But he's in this for the thrill - for the trading experience - he sees it only as a speculation, that's how his mind works. And that's fine. Most people won't understand the potential of bitcoin until that potential is realized. That is just the way of the world.

If Bitcoin flys up from here and then "crashes" or strongly "corrects" we will see Jason again.

Maybe.

Hey windjc, as a brilliant visionary I'd love to know more about you. What do you do for a living?

he's still a winner no matter what.. maybe not as much as some others, but so what? he still came out ahead. i think the smart thing would have been to sell less off over time, but hey it's his life.

sounds like  you are talking at his eulogy LOL

i just feel a little bad for the guy, because i'd be pulling my hair out if it happened to me. he still made money either way, so the glass is equally full as it is empty.

then again, fuck that.. he's made a lot more money than me. no pity for you sir!

I pity the fool who sells his bitcoin

Just read this thread for the first time today.  I can see why OP thought it was a good time to sell.  I too thought at the time that it seemed like an unlikely rise.  Bitcoin had been pretty stagnant for a while.  

Thankfully hubby and I are long term holders.  Partially for tax reasons.  Partially because we don't have a large amount compared to many really.  We don't want to mess with claiming anything on them this year.  Next year should be fun.

But I really appreciate some of the posts on the forum about the best strategies for taking profits.  It seems that a tiered sell off is a great way to go.  I think the riskiest thing to do is to sell them all in one lump because we really do not know what is going to happen long term.

Granted, people have different goals and purposes for investing and most people that have sold have made impressive gains that have helped their lives significantly.  Who knows, we might be the crazy ones for holding without reaping any profits but it sure has been an exciting adventure.  ;D