It's getting frothy, and I'm dumping 75% of my coins

[DeathAndTaxes]

Only one thing to do now.

PANIC

Taken care of

[jasonjm]

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

[Paladin69]

yeah I sold approx 300 coins between 320 and 380

I have 100 coins left

I will dump all at $1000 if that happens within a few weeks

you guys do all realize that only around 5% of us can take profit on bitcoin? any more than that and the price will literally go to $10 or so

You sir are one of the few on these boards that seems to understand what profit-taking means around here.  Congrats on your sale.  Go buy a car outright and pay off the mortgage.

You don't deserve to be shit on in this thread.  If it weren't for people who sold.  Bitcoin wouldn't be where it is today in the first place.  People don't seem to understand this.

Just like binary, 0 or 1, Bitcoin could greatly succeed, or greatly fail.  It's a 50-50 shot.  You were playing roulette and landed on your color.  The rest of us are still spinning.

[windjc]

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

Why are you stating the obvious? How much money is there to be made in Microsoft stock? Yet people still invest in it and trade it.

What the heck is your point? Everything you say is obvious.

Go study the potential market cap for bitcoin if it becomes integrated into society in one or various ways. Then you will understand that you are just pissing into the wind right now.

[AndrewWilliams]

Three accounts.


Sell all in number one when it hits $500

Sell all in number two when it hits $1,000

Never sell all in account number three

[DeathAndTaxes]

Three accounts.


Sell all in number one when it hits $500

Sell all in number two when it hits $1,000

Never sell all in account number three

Every time BTC triples, sell half.  You will never run out of coins and your BTC and non-BTC wealth will increase as long as the exchange rate does.

[wachtwoord]

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

Left holding "the bag"? Sir, USD is the bag, Bitcoin is the prize.

[600watt]

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

so in all stock trade the majority of the buyers will get burned ? why is stock trading still around ? why do you have companies with stocks that are selling for decades ? and bitcoin isn´t even a stock, stock performance isn´t the limit.

[zby]

...
so in all stock trade the majority of the buyers will get burned ? why is stock trading still around ? why do you have companies with stocks that are selling for decades ? and bitcoin isn´t even a stock, stock performance isn´t the limit.

You forgot about dividends.

[BitchicksHusband]

you guys do all realize that only around 5% of us can take profit on bitcoin? any more than that and the price will literally go to $10 or so

on the day silk road got shutdown, there was heavy selling volume on the exchanges, approx 200 000 coins ( or 2%). not all of those were sells, so lets say 160 000 sells.

that was enough to drop BTC price almost 50% on some exchanges

No, I didn't realize that.  I believe that those of us with bitcoins would sell slowly to those who Mommy Newscaster is telling to buy even though it's way too late.  And we would make a lot of money.  Sure, someone could panic sell leading to more panic sells and a crash, but I don't see how that's in anyone's interest when we could all sell slowly.  Still, it could happen, but I think if 5% of the money leaves, then bitcoin would probably go down by...5%?

And a drop from $140 to $110 isn't 50% by my calculations.  And the immediate correction to $130 scares me even less.

now..... imagine 5% of people or 600 000 coins are sold within 48 hours.

it would literally devastate bitcoin prices.

So....... although I like bitcoin, when you get down to it, every person who is hoarding bitcoins (myself included) is pretty much counting on the fact that they will somehow be the first to sell when the time comes. But obviously this is impossible, 95% of us have to be wrong.

I still don't accept the initial premise.  Yes, if 50% of the money exited on the same day this would be the case.  But not 5%.  I just don't see it.  And since Apple, Google, Microsoft and the like haven't disappeared even though they have probably lost 5% of their value at some point, I just don't buy this line of reasoning.

Still, glad to see you are taking some small profits and are happy with your result.  We'll see if this thread is mocked or celebrated in the future, but personally, since it's the difference between retiring next year or working the rest of my life, I'll wait it out a bit longer.  If I'm wrong, I can always just work the rest of my life and not worry about what I have lost because I can afford to lose it.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin.

Your logic is faulty, that's not how it works.
Consider if some fatal bug was discovered, that made it very clear bitcoin will never succeed. Nobody would be a buyer anymore (except perhaps some crazy person, who could buy all of them for pennies), the money that went into bitcoin would never flow out.  The perceived wealth just disappeared, thereby causing a negative 'wealth effect', decreasing inflation.
In the opposite example, bitcoin can represent more wealth than the dollars that were put into it.

So you believe it is all hype, and that bitcoin could never establish itself it as a major part of the world's digital/economic ecosystem. That is fine, however you should clearly state things like this in your opening post, as well as your reasons why. Most people on this forum disagree. Arguments are pretty unproductive when both sides can't even fully specify what they are discussing. Sadly, this is usually the case.

Nice post.

[crazy_rabbit]

Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin.

Your logic is faulty, that's not how it works.

Definitely not how the FED works.

[jasonjm]

You guys literally don't get it.  Only 5 percent can take profit.  95 percent have to get burnt.

No. People can cash out as the price rises. As long as there is money inflow everyone can profit. Since bitcoin is a currency/store of value, even those at the end are not "doomed to be holding the bags", like in a typical pyramid scheme.

People earlier this year PROFITED at $30. They never have to come back and buy "at a loss".

People are profiting every day at $380.

not true... think about it.... at the end of the final cycle up whenever that may be, 100% of those people are left holding the bags.

so if you use your bitcoin to buy drugs, transfer money to people, buy things on the internet, thats fine, you are using the currency and not hoarding / holding BTC - you will have no issues with BTC.

BUT if you are speculating, and holding BTC, in the end, a massive amount of people must get burned. Logically, only the same amount of money that went into bitcoin can come out of bitcoin. For every seller there MUST be a buyer, or the price collapses.

So unless you propose that it will stay at a fixed value, with a never ending arrival of new buyers, and more amazingly, sellers who never buy back in again, this eventually has to end in tears for most people. That or bitcoin must approach a value of infinity - literally always going up, so there is never a final high.

What you are actually talking about in your earlier reply is the "greater fool theory" - where the earlier participants find the fool to hold the bag for them.

Everyone involved with BTC just sees $$$s and riches. No one seems to actually sit down and think things through.

so in all stock trade the majority of the buyers will get burned ? why is stock trading still around ? why do you have companies with stocks that are selling for decades ? and bitcoin isn´t even a stock, stock performance isn´t the limit.

untrue. unless you are saying the stock is say twitter or something similar. then I will give you that. But if the stock is say a large oil company, they 1) have assets 2) have revenue 3) pay dividends..... this is not the same as bitcoin

or lets say you just speculate on a commodity like corn. those futures represent something tangible and quantifiable - corn.

[jasonjm]

you guys do all realize that only around 5% of us can take profit on bitcoin? any more than that and the price will literally go to $10 or so

on the day silk road got shutdown, there was heavy selling volume on the exchanges, approx 200 000 coins ( or 2%). not all of those were sells, so lets say 160 000 sells.

that was enough to drop BTC price almost 50% on some exchanges

No, I didn't realize that.  I believe that those of us with bitcoins would sell slowly to those who Mommy Newscaster is telling to buy even though it's way too late.  And we would make a lot of money.  Sure, someone could panic sell leading to more panic sells and a crash, but I don't see how that's in anyone's interest when we could all sell slowly.  Still, it could happen, but I think if 5% of the money leaves, then bitcoin would probably go down by...5%?

And a drop from $140 to $110 isn't 50% by my calculations.  And the immediate correction to $130 scares me even less.

now..... imagine 5% of people or 600 000 coins are sold within 48 hours.

it would literally devastate bitcoin prices.

So....... although I like bitcoin, when you get down to it, every person who is hoarding bitcoins (myself included) is pretty much counting on the fact that they will somehow be the first to sell when the time comes. But obviously this is impossible, 95% of us have to be wrong.

I still don't accept the initial premise.  Yes, if 50% of the money exited on the same day this would be the case.  But not 5%.  I just don't see it.  And since Apple, Google, Microsoft and the like haven't disappeared even though they have probably lost 5% of their value at some point, I just don't buy this line of reasoning.

Still, glad to see you are taking some small profits and are happy with your result.  We'll see if this thread is mocked or celebrated in the future, but personally, since it's the difference between retiring next year or working the rest of my life, I'll wait it out a bit longer.  If I'm wrong, I can always just work the rest of my life and not worry about what I have lost because I can afford to lose it.

sorry, but your calculations are incorrect. Go look at the order depth for bitcoin and add them up across the major exchanges. Of the 5 biggest exchanges, where 90% + o the volume is per day, there are approx 400 000 buy orders parked above $100.

However in a free fall a lot of those buys get pulled. So to summarize, if there is sustained selling of 400 000 coins over hours (for whatever reason due to a panic) the price will be around $100 at best from here.

the day gox crashed from 260 to 100 in one day, was less than 200 000 coins sold, which was approx 2 to 3% of the float.

[jasonjm]

BTW of the last two parabolic moves up in bitcoin, first one lasted 20 days

second one lasted close to 40 days

we are currently at 30 days on this one

[Rannasha]

BTW of the last two parabolic moves up in bitcoin, first one lasted 20 days

second one lasted close to 40 days

we are currently at 30 days on this one

So since the length of each parabolic move up is double that of the previous, this one should last for 80 days.

Right?

[jasonjm]

yeah its possible it lasts 80 days, I give you that

but I believe its unlikely, my opinion. To keep the same pace which parabolic moves need to do so they do not collapse upon themselves, that would put bitcoin at approx $3000 at the end of 80 days.

if it lasts less than 40 days, then there is definitely a good range guide for future parabolic moves (20 to 40 days).

[DeathAndTaxes]

BTW of the last two parabolic moves up in bitcoin, first one lasted 20 days

second one lasted close to 40 days

we are currently at 30 days on this one

So since the length of each parabolic move up is double that of the previous, this one should last for 80 days.

Right?

Of course.

[jasonjm]

BTW of the last two parabolic moves up in bitcoin, first one lasted 20 days

second one lasted close to 40 days

we are currently at 30 days on this one

So since the length of each parabolic move up is double that of the previous, this one should last for 80 days.

Right?

Of course.

lol. very funny I am stealing that image

[BittBurger]

hmmm, I would call bitcoin stable when it spends months between 120 and 150

It has been above 100 (95% of the time) since July.

That's not sufficient for you?

Your criteria are included in anything above 120 .... so you have 3 solid months above 100.